投资项目评估投资学专用书 清华版本 课后习题答案

课本能力训练答案课本第三章【能力训练】答案1-10、（略） 13：解：得分=101i i i p x =∑甲得分=9.0285 甲得分=8.7605 甲得分=9.0505 所以丙方案最好。

14：解：最佳位置计算==∑∑==41410i ii i ii icQ c Q xx 324.53==∑∑==41410i ii i ii icQ c Q yy 238.36所以最佳厂址应该选择在（324.53，238.36）的位置上。

课本第五章【能力训练】答案2.计算分析题 （1）解：C=1800000+(1000-0.1Q)*Q S=(3000-0.3Q)*Q根据S=C 有0180000020002.02=+-Q Q 解得：10001=Q 90002=Q 1000< Q <9000即为合理的经济规模由0180000020002.02=+-Q Q 对Q 求导令其为零 得到5000=E Q 即为最佳经济规模。

（2）解：根据最小费用法的计算公式 n r n E C C A ++=)(K由于K 1=1200/3000=0.4 K 2=1400/3000=0.467 K 3=1800/3000=0.6 所以4.0*125.0)05.05.0(1++=A=0.6 (万元)467.0*125.0)06.048.0(2++=A =0.598(万元)6.0*125.0)08.045.0(3++=A =0.605(万元) 所以选第二个方案。

第六章【能力训练】答案（二）辨析题1.如果项目的经济寿命期低于自然寿命期，则应依据项目预期的经济寿命期作为项目的计算期。

答：对。

项目的经济寿命指包括项目建设期以及在自然寿命期内，能够维持经济再生产，而不因无形损耗被提前淘汰的期限，应以其作为项目计算期。

2.经营成本又叫营运成本，是指生产总成本扣除折旧费、摊销费后的总成本，即生产总成本费用中扣除非付现成本费用的剩余部分。

答：错。

经营成本是指生产总成本扣除折旧费、摊销费和利息支出后的成本费用。

习题（1章）1.根据你自身的情况,计算你自己的理想收益率与必要收益率。

这些收益率是有可能实现的吗?你觉得选择本章中讲到的哪些金融工具有可能帮助你实现这些收益率?参考解答：（1）理想收益率和必要收益率的计算请见Excel文件，可以在课堂上根据同学自身情况进行模拟计算或调整数值。

2.试讨论你对自己风险态度的认识,并询问一下你的家庭成员或者你身边的朋友的风险态度。

尝试对这些人(包括你自己)做一个风险排序。

参考解答：可以根据教材中第一章提供的专栏1-1进行打分，提供风险态度依据。

3.本章分析了积极配置资产类别并积极选择证券品种的投资者以及消极配置资产类别并消极选择证券品种的投资者,他们分别对应表1-9中的A组合和D组合。

试问选择B组合和C组合的投资者会怎样具体地选择资产配置方案和证券投资品种?参考解答：表1-9 资产类别配置与证券品种选择组合示意A组合是积极的资产类别配置与积极的证券品种选择,这一类组合的投资者通常根据对不同资产类别的预期收益率的判断而选择不同时机改变固定收益类和股权类资产的配置比重,并且根据对不同证券品种的预期收益率的判断而开展积极的证券交易。

D组合则是消极的资产类别配置与消极的证券品种选择,这一类组合的投资者将长期坚持其既定的在不同类别资产上的配置比重,并将长期持有具体资产类别的指数基金。

B组合根据对不同资产类别的预期收益率的判断而选择不同时机改变固定收益类和股权类资产的配置比重,但是对于具体资产品种的选择则倾向于消极持有。

C组合消极开展资产类别配置选择，但是在具体的资产品种选择上将根据对不同证券品种的预期收益率的判断而开展积极的证券交易。

4.从长期来看,投资的风险和回报是正相关的,为什么短期而言并不一定如此?参考解答：从长期来看,投资的风险和回报之间的正相关关系是金融市场在长期处于相对均衡状态时的结果，我们将在第七章和第八章进一步讨论背后的理论机制。

另一方面，由于金融资产的收益具有波动性，比如股票投资收益的波动性较高，有可能在某一个特定短期获得较高的收益，也有可能在某一个特点短期招致较大亏损，但是投资该股票承担的风险并没有发生大的变化，因此风险和回报之间的正相关关系在短期内未必成立。

（完整版）投资学第10版习题答案05CHAPTER 5: RISK, RETURN, AND THE HISTORICALRECORDPROBLEM SETS1. The Fisher equation predicts that the nominal rate will equal the equilibriumreal rate plus the expected inflation rate. Hence, if the inflation rate increasesfrom 3% to 5% while there is no change in the real rate, then the nominal ratewill increase by 2%. On the other hand, it is possible that an increase in theexpected inflation rate would be accompanied by a change in the real rate ofinterest. While it is conceivable that the nominal interest rate could remainconstant as the inflation rate increased, implying that the real rate decreasedas inflation increased, this is not a likely scenario.2. If we assume that the distribution of returns remains reasonably stable overthe entire history, then a longer sample period (i.e., a larger sample) increasesthe precision of the estimate of the expected rate of return; this is aconsequence of the fact that the standard error decreases as the sample sizeincreases. However, if we assume that the mean of the distribution of returnsis changing over time but we are not in a position to determine the nature ofthis change, then the expected return must be estimated from a more recentpart of the historical period. In this scenario, we must determine how far back,historically, to go in selecting the relevant sample. Here, it is likely to bedisadvantageous to use the entire data set back to 1880.3. The true statements are (c) and (e). The explanations follow.Statement (c): Let σ = the annual standard deviation of the risky investmentsand 1σ= the standard deviation of the first investment alternative over the two-year period. Then:σσ?=21Therefore, the annualized standard deviation for the first investment alternative is equal to:σσσ<=221Statement (e): The first investment alternative is more attractive to investors with lower degrees of risk aversion. The first alternative (entailing a sequence of two identically distributed and uncorrelated risky investments) is riskierthan the second alternative (the risky investment followed by a risk-freeinvestment). Therefore, the first alternative is more attractive to investors with lower degrees of risk aversion. Notice, however, that if you mistakenlybelieved that time diversification can reduce the total risk of a sequence ofrisky investments, you would have been tempted to conclude that the firstalternative is less risky and therefore more attractive to more risk-averseinvestors. This is clearly not the case; the two-year standard deviation of thefirst alternative is greater than the two-year standard deviation of the secondalternative.4. For the money market fund, your holding-period return for the next yeardepends on the level of 30-day interest rates each month when the fund rolls over maturing securities. The one-year savings deposit offers a 7.5% holding period return for the year. If you forecast that the rate on money marketinstruments will increase significantly above the current 6% yield, then themoney market fund might result in a higher HPR than the savings deposit.The 20-year Treasury bond offers a yield to maturity of 9% per year, which is 150 basis points higher than the rate on the one-year savings deposit; however, you could earn a one-year HPR much less than 7.5% on the bond if long-term interest rates increase during the year. If Treasury bond yields rise above 9%, then the price of the bond will fall, and the resulting capital loss will wipe out some or all of the 9% return you would have earned if bond yields hadremained unchanged over the course of the year.5. a. If businesses reduce their capital spending, then they are likely todecrease their demand for funds. This will shift the demand curve inFigure 5.1 to the left and reduce the equilibrium real rate of interest.b. Increased household saving will shift the supply of funds curve to theright and cause real interest rates to fall.c. Open market purchases of U.S. Treasury securities by the FederalReserve Board are equivalent to an increase in the supply of funds (ashift of the supply curve to the right). The FED buys treasuries withcash from its own account or it issues certificates which trade likecash. As a result, there is an increase in the money supply, and theequilibrium real rate of interest will fall.6. a. The “Inflation-Plus” CD is the safer investment because it guarantees thepurchasing power of the investment. Using the approximation that the realrate equals the nominal rate minus the inflation rate, the CD provides a realrate of 1.5% regardless of the inflation rate.b. The expected return depends on the expected rate of inflation over the nextyear. If the expected rate of inflation is less than 3.5% then the conventionalCD offers a higher real return than the inflation-plus CD; if the expected rateof inflation is greater than 3.5%, then the opposite is true.c. If you expect the rate of inflation to be 3% over the next year, then theconventional CD offers you an expected real rate of return of 2%, which is0.5% higher than the real rate on the inflation-protected CD. But unless youknow that inflation will be 3% with certainty, the conventional CD is alsoriskier. The question of which is the better investment then depends on yourattitude towards risk versus return. You might choose to diversify and investpart of your funds in each.d. No. We cannot assume that the entire difference between the risk-freenominal rate (on conventional CDs) of 5% and the real risk-free rate (oninflation-protected CDs) of 1.5% is the expected rate of inflation. Part of thedifference is probably a risk premium associated with the uncertaintysurrounding the real rate of return on the conventional CDs. This impliesthat the expected rate of inflation is less than 3.5% per year.7. E(r) = [0.35 × 44.5%] + [0.30 × 14.0%] + [0.35 × (–16.5%)] = 14%σ2 = [0.35 × (44.5 – 14)2] + [0.30 × (14 – 14)2] + [0.35 × (–16.5 – 14)2] = 651.175 σ = 25.52%The mean is unchanged, but the standard deviation has increased, as theprobabilities of the high and low returns have increased.8. Probability distribution of price and one-year holding period return for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond (which will have 29 years to maturity at year-end):Economy Probability YTM Price CapitalGainCouponInterest HPRBoom 0.20 11.0% $ 74.05 -$25.95 $8.00 -17.95% Normal growth 0.50 8.0 100.00 0.00 8.00 8.00 Recession 0.30 7.0 112.28 12.28 8.00 20.289. E(q) = (0 × 0.25) + (1 × 0.25) + (2 × 0.50) = 1.25σq = [0.25 × (0 – 1.25)2 + 0.25 × (1 – 1.25)2 + 0.50 × (2 – 1.25)2]1/2 = 0.8292 10. (a) With probability 0.9544, the value of a normally distributedvariable will fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean; that is,between –40% and 80%. Simply add and subtract 2 standarddeviations to and from the mean.11. From Table 5.4, the average risk premium for the period 7/1926-9/2012 was:12.34% per year.Adding 12.34% to the 3% risk-free interest rate, the expected annual HPR for the Big/Value portfolio is: 3.00% + 12.34% = 15.34%.No. The distributions from (01/1928–06/1970) and (07/1970–12/2012) periods have distinct characteristics due to systematic shocks to the economy and subsequent government intervention. While the returns from the two periods do not differ greatly, their respective distributions tell a different story. The standard deviation for all six portfolios is larger in the first period. Skew is also positive, but negative in the second, showing a greater likelihood of higher-than-normal returns in the right tail.Kurtosis is also markedly larger in the first period.13. a%88.5,0588.070.170.080.01111or i i rn i rn rr =-=+-=-++=b. rr ≈ rn - i = 80% - 70% = 10%Clearly, the approximation gives a real HPR that is too high.14. From Table 5.2, the average real rate on T-bills has been 0.52%.a. T-bills: 0.52% real rate + 3% inflation = 3.52%b. Expected return on Big/Value:3.52% T-bill rate + 12.34% historical risk premium = 15.86%c. The risk premium on stocks remains unchanged. A premium, thedifference between two rates, is a real value, unaffected by inflation.15. Real interest rates are expected to rise. The investment activity will shiftthe demand for funds curve (in Figure 5.1) to the right. Therefore theequilibrium real interest rate will increase.16. a. Probability distribution of the HPR on the stock market and put:STOCK PUT State of theEconomyProbability Ending Price + Dividend HPR Ending Value HPR Excellent0.25 $ 131.00 31.00% $ 0.00 -100% Good0.45 114.00 14.00 $ 0.00 -100 Poor0.25 93.25 ?6.75 $ 20.25 68.75 Crash 0.05 48.00 -52.00 $ 64.00 433.33Remember that the cost of the index fund is $100 per share, and the costof the put option is $12.b. The cost of one share of the index fund plus a put option is $112. Theprobability distribution of the HPR on the portfolio is:State of the Economy Probability Ending Price + Put + DividendHPRExcellent 0.25 $ 131.00 17.0%= (131 - 112)/112 Good 0.45 114.00 1.8= (114 - 112)/112 Poor 0.25 113.50 1.3= (113.50 - 112)/112 Crash0.05 112.00 0.0 = (112 - 112)/112 c. Buying the put option guarantees the investor a minimum HPR of 0.0% regardless of what happens to the stock's price. Thus, it offers insuranceagainst a price decline.17. The probability distribution of the dollar return on CD plus call option is:State of theEconomy Probability Ending Valueof CDEnding Valueof CallCombinedValueExcellent 0.25 $ 114.00 $16.50 $130.50Good 0.45 114.00 0.00 114.00Poor 0.25 114.00 0.00 114.00Crash 0.05 114.00 0.00 114.0018.a.Total return of the bond is (100/84.49)-1 = 0.1836. With t = 10, the annualrate on the real bond is (1 + EAR) = = 1.69%.b.With a per quarter yield of 2%, the annual yield is = 1.0824, or8.24%. The equivalent continuously compounding (cc) rate is ln(1+.0824)= .0792, or 7.92%. The risk-free rate is 3.55% with a cc rate of ln(1+.0355)= .0349, or 3.49%. The cc risk premium will equal .0792 - .0349 = .0443, or4.433%.c.The appropriate formula is ,where . Using solver or goal seek, setting thetarget cell to the known effective cc rate by changing the unknown variance(cc) rate, the equivalent standard deviation (cc) is 18.03% (excel mayyield slightly different solutions).d.The expected value of the excess return will grow by 120 months (12months over a 10-year horizon). Therefore the excess return will be 120 ×4.433% = 531.9%. The expected SD grows by the square root of timeresulting in 18.03% × = 197.5%. The resulting Sharpe ratio is531.9/197.5 = 2.6929. Normsdist (-2.6929) = .0035, or a .35% probabilityof shortfall over a 10-year horizon.CFA PROBLEMS1. The expected dollar return on the investment in equities is $18,000 (0.6 × $50,000 + 0.4×?$30,000) compared to the $5,000 expected return for T-bills. Therefore, the expected risk premium is $13,000.2. E(r) = [0.2 × (?25%)] + [0.3 × 10%] + [0.5 × 24%] =10%3. E(r X) = [0.2 × (?20%)] + [0.5 × 18%] + [0.3 × 50%] =20%E(r Y) = [0.2 × (?15%)] + [0.5 × 20%] + [0.3 × 10%] =10%4. σX2 = [0.2 × (– 20 – 20)2] + [0.5 × (18 – 20)2] + [0.3 × (50 – 20)2] = 592σX = 24.33%σY2 = [0.2 × (– 15 – 10)2] + [0.5 × (20 – 10)2] + [0.3 × (10 – 10)2] = 175σY = 13.23%5. E(r) = (0.9 × 20%) + (0.1 × 10%) =19% $1,900 in returns6. The probability that the economy will be neutral is 0.50, or 50%. Given aneutral economy, the stock will experience poor performance 30% of thetime. The probability of both poor stock performance and a neutral economy is therefore: 0.30 × 0.50 = 0.15 = 15%7. E(r) = (0.1 × 15%) + (0.6 × 13%) + (0.3 × 7%) = 11.4%。

《投资学》习题三一、单项选择题（本大题共20小题，每小题2分，共40分）1、从价值构成和生产的角度看，投资资金重要来源于社会总产值中c和m中用于（A）。

A、积累及补偿部分B、消费及补偿部分C、积累及消费部分D、积累及发展部分2、BOT^（C）的简称。

A、转让-拥有-建设B、拥有-转让-建设C、建设-拥有-转让D、拥有-建设-转让3、项目投资属于（A）。

A、直接投资B、间接投资C、金融投资D、财政投资4、1936年，（B）出版了《就业、利息和货币通论》一书，成为当时西方发达国家制定政府经济政策的指导思想。

A、菲利普B、凯恩斯C、希克斯D、卡塞尔5、投资基金在日本被称为是。

（C）A、共同基金B、单位信托基金C、证券投资信托基金D、互助基金6、测定证券风险的指标通常是用（C）。

A、均方差和期望值B、方差和期望值C、均方差和预期收益率D、均方差和标准差7、投资项目的微观决策也称为（A）。

A、财务决策B、社会决策C、直接决策D、间接决策8由于过去的决策已经发生的，而不能由现在或将来的任何决策改变的成本称为（C）A 市场成本B、生产成本C、沉没成本D、直接成本9、在国际市场上发行的不以发行所在国货币，而以另一种可自由兑换的货币标值并还本伏羲的债券称为（B）。

A、外国债券B、欧洲债券C、金融债券D、信用债券10、项目评价是在项目（D）的基础上，从国家和企业的角度对建设方案进行全面的技术经济论证和评价。

A、信用B、国家C、决策D、可行性研究11、盈亏平衡分析法假设销售量和生产量（A）。

A、相等B 、不相等C 、增加D、减少12、证券投资中的可分散风险通过（C）消减。

A期货B、期权C、证券组合D、证券股息13、银行贷款融资属于（B）范畴。

A、直接融资B、间接融资C、股权融资D、信托融资14、按复利方式计算以后若干时期一定数量资金现在的价值称为（A）。

A、现值B、终值C、年金D、等值15、流动比率是流动资产与（A）的比率。