土地储备论文：土地储备的财务风险评价研究

土地储备论文：土地储备的财务风险评价研究

【中文摘要】土地储备制度是我国土地使用制度变迁和改革的产物,是城市政府适应社会主义市场经济发展而进行的对土地资源优化配置的一种制度创新。自1996年上海成立第一家土地储备机构以来,土地储备制度蓬勃发展,十几年的实践经验证明,土地储备制度对于优化配置土地资源、促进存量土地进入市场、提高土地利用效率、规范土地市场运行、保证土地利用规划和城市规划的顺利实施、加快城市建设发展等方面发挥了积极的作用。随着土地储备机构经营的土地规模日益庞大,土地储备资金需求量不断增加,地方政府及财政部门有限的财政拨款及较低的土地收益金返还比例已很难满足土地储备经营活动的需求。因而,土地储备机构目前主要通过银行贷款来维持土地储备活动的正常运营。融资渠道单一,政府过渡干涉,土地储备投资周期较长等因素,都给土地储备运作带来较高的财务风险。本文首先从土地储备制度的概念、工作流程入手,分析目前土地储备的三种运作模式,即市场主导型、政府主导型和市场政府混合主导型的运作流程和特点。在土地储备风险理论研究的基础上,提出土地储备财务风险的概念,并深入分析土地储备财务风险的种类及产生原因,包括融资风险、利率风险和违约风险。借鉴企业财务评价指标,从土地储备机构的运营能力、偿债能力和盈利及发展能力出发,选取了十个财务指标构建土地储备财务风险评价体系。运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对A县土地储备中心的财务状况进行了评价,得出该储备机构

的财务风险程度为中等水平。最后结合实证研究,提出了控制土地储备财务风险的建议对策：正确定位土地储备制度的功能；扩展融资渠道,加大土地收益金的留存比例；实行企业化的会计核算方式；确定合理的土地储备量；建立财务风险预警机制。

【英文摘要】Land reserve system is a product from evolution

and reform of land use system in our country, and it is also

a kind of system innovation that the city government adapts to

the. development of socialist market economy for allocating the

land resources optimally. Since Shanghai firstly established

the land reserve agency in 1996, land reserve system has

developed vigorously. Ten years practice experience proves

that land reserve system plays a positive role for optimizing

the allocation of land resources, and efficiently using the

available land, and improving the land utilization efficiency,

and regulating the land market operation, and ensuring the land

use planning and the urban planning, and accelerating the

smooth development of the urban construction.As the scale of

land that land reserve agency manages is increasingly large,

the requirement of land reserve capital is increased

unceasingly. Limited financial allocation and low returned

ratio of land transferring fund from local government and

finance department is already hard to satisfy the land reserve

agency’s capital requirement. Therefore, many land reserve

agencies at present are mainly through the bank loan to maintain

the normal operation of land reserves activities. Factors such

as single financing channel, government intervention, long

cycle to reserve land, bring higher financial risk to land

banking.This paper firstly studies the concept and workflow of

land reserve system, and then analyzes the operation procedure

and character of the three current kinds of land reserve

operation mode:market-oriented model, government’s leading

model, market mixed with government leading model. The concept

of land banking financial risk is presented based on the

research of land reserve risk theory. And a deep analysis on

types and causes of land banking financial risk, which include

financing risk, interest rate risk and default risk, is given.

This paper refer enterprise financial evaluation index,

selected ten financial indicators from land reserve agency’s operation ability, solvency, earning and development ability

to construct land reserve financial risk evaluation

system.Analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive

evaluation method are used to evaluate the financial risk of

a land banking organ, and the conclusion is that the financial

risk degree is on medium level. And at last, based on the

empirical research, some countermeasures to control land

reserve financial risk are proposed:orientating the function

correctly of land reserve system; expanding financing channel,

and increasing returned ratio of land transferring fund;

implementing entrepreneurial accounting methods; determining

reasonable land banking scale; setting up a financial risk

pre-warning mechanism.

【关键词】土地储备 财务风险 模糊综合评价

【英文关键词】Land banking Financial risk

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

【目录】土地储备的财务风险评价研究摘要3-4ABSTRACT4-5目录6-81 绪论8-161.1 研究背景、目的及意义8-101.1.1 研究背景8-91.1.2 研究目的及意义9-101.2 国内外相关研究综述10-141.2.1 国内相关研究综述10-121.2.2 国外相关研究综述12-141.2.3 研究评述141.3 研究方案14-161.3.1 研究内容14-151.3.2 研究方法151.3.3 研究技术路线15-161.4 论文创新点162 相关理论基础16-242.1 土地储备制度16-202.1.1 土地储备制度介绍16-172.1.2 土地储备模式介绍17-202.2 土地储备风险理论20-232.2.1

风险的含义及特征20-212.2.2 土地储备风险含义及识别

21-232.2.3 土地储备财务风险232.3 模糊综合评价理论23-243 土地储备财务风险识别及风险成因分析24-273.1 土地储备的财务风险识别24-253.1.1 融资风险243.1.2 利率风险24-253.1.3 违约风险253.2 土地储备的财务风险成因分析25-273.2.1 筹资渠道单一,成本较大25-263.2.2 储备中心对土地出让金缺乏支配权263.2.3 土地储备决策的影响26-273.2.4

外部政策、经济和行政环境的影响274 土地储备财务风险评价指标体系的构建27-364.1 土地储备财务风险评价指标选取原则27-284.2 土地储备财务风险评价指标选取28-324.2.1 财务风险评价指标选取28-294.2.2 财务分析指标分析29-324.3 土地储备财务风险评价指标权重确定32-354.4 土地储备财务风险程度的确定35-365