Analysis Report of Macro EconomyWritten by:1013039 胡非1013040徐声1013041 叶俊卿1013042 吴越2013/11/10Firstly, the global economy and foresight: faces three big challengesIn the first half of 2013, global economic growth showed a trend of differentiation. United States is in the process of recovery, and recovery gradually increases. Japan's recovery is in stimulating type. The process is in the short-term strong growth. Europe is still in debt during the recession, and growth is slow depressed. Emerging economies is in the process of structural slowdown in economic growth potential.In the face of post-crisis economic differentiation, tone of major economies policy will adjust accordingly. The whole, the global economy once again facing reshuffle and adjusting, mainly faces three risk challenges:(A)The risk of exit of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easingThe Federal Reserve may be exit of quantitative easing at the end of the year.. In 2008, U.S. subprime crisis caused the international financial crisis and American economy into a quagmire. In order to stimulate the U.S. economy growth, the Fed launched a round of quantitative easing.Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. economy is in steady recovery. It is expected the Federal Reserve will gradually withdraw from quantitative easing monetary policy. In the first quarter GDP fold at an annual rate of 1.8% in the United States,In the second quarter, manufacturing, real estate residents' consumption market and financial conditions continue to improve. The recovery is strong.From the Federal Reserve most valued indicators, the unemployment rate, the U.S. job market has been improving steadily. There are more than average 200000 monthly increased non-farm jobs, close to the normal level before the crisis. The unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in June, compared to the highest fell by 2.4 and at the end of this year unemployment rate is expected to further dropped to around 7%. The fed chairman said that if the U.S. economy recovery can reach the expected level, quantitativeeasing exit may have three big impacts on global financial markets.The quantitative easing will become the largest uncertainty in the global economic events, and a huge impact to global financial markets. One is global currency will inversion. With quantitative easing quit, it will lead to a dollar into the recession against the non-us currencies.Commodity prices will into the downlink channel. Once the exit of quantitative easing, the dollar rose value will bring down the commodity prices into the channel, it will have a significant for resources countryCapital flows reversed may induce local financial crisis. Since the long-term weak dollar and low interest rates, make it become the latest must-haves in the carry trade. Once the quantitative easing, the dollar carry trade positions, is bound to cause the dollar scale back, leading to other countries financial market turmoil.(B)The risk of the Yen depreciatedAbe economics gave rise to the yen depreciated economics. At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe implemented a series of economic stimulus policies; accelerate the core content of the so-called "three narrow ", namely, quantitative and qualitative easing monetary policy (QQE), flexible and fiscal policy. Structural reform is the core economic growth strategy.Under the QQE policy, the bank of Japan will base money growth rhythm about 60-70 trillion yen a year, at the same time, buy long-term government bonds and ETFs stock exchange traded funds real estate investment trust fund, and other risky assets, and promise to implement QQE before inflation hit 2% last. The second arrow is a fiscal stimulus. Japan's parliament has approved as much as 13 trillion yen (more than 1400$) supplementary budget for the fiscal stimulus. The third arrow is structural reforms,including deregulation, promote private investment, and promote the reform of the Labor market and to join the TPP agreement and enhance agricultural competitiveness. Although Japan's long-term recession, the deterioration of the balance of payments objectively provides a foundation for the yen.It is expected, become the direct factors to promote the substantial depreciation of the yen. Since October 2012 so far, the accumulated depreciation has reached more than 30% against the dollar, and the quantitative wide loose we will continue to implement the devaluation channel will remain. The yen could increase the Asian economic risks. The yen could increase the Asian economic risks while the yen to economic recovery brought some short-term effect, but in the long run there is a big uncertainty.The Japanese stock market after the peak emergence in late fall sharply, shows the market for Japan economic outlook of the lack of confidence. In addition, the yen will have on emerging market countries around larger impact. Before 1997, the substantial depreciation of the yen is the East Asian crisis of the fire, the yen that although there is no previous round but faster than the previous. And far from over, the yen could again emerging East Asia, and even the whole world of economic risk. One is economic fundamentals vulnerable emerging economies in Asia. Although villa is Asian emerging economies growth rate is higher, but due to the structural contradiction in the domestic economy, the economy not firm growth foundation. Pull is the yen hit Asia's emerging economies to foreign trade. The second is for a period of time; the yen trade influence will stand out, especially South Korea.Competing with Japan economies such as China's Taiwan, will be the first to hit, and then spread throughout the region to export-oriented East Asian economies country. The deterioration will further impact of economic fundamentals. It is caused by the yen volatility will affect emerging Asia cross-border capital flows. The yen could cause Asia's emerging economies exchange rate volatility and influence cross-border capital flows, caused by economic instability.(C)The risk of emerging economies' growth potentialEmerging economies are suffering severe financial market adjustments. Emerging economies are suffering severe financial markets as the fed exit quantity adjustmentThe easing expectations, the international capital fled emerging markets, Asia Pacific, Latin America and other regions in the stock market fell sharply, and currency accelerated depreciation, emerging economies in financial markets suffer severe turbulence. Global data show that in the second quarter of the last five weeks, the emerging markets equity funds is out of $22.7 billion, a single week highest outflows of $5.6 billion, hitting a record high. Standard chartered bank, released on June 27, according to a statistics of the past emerging market equities market overall fell by about 12.9%, among them, in India, Russia's decline reached 14.5%and 12.7% respectively, far higher than the developed market about 6.1% of the decline.At the same time, since May of this year, emerging economies suffer the substantial depreciation of currency, including the Indian rupee against the dollar rate more than 10%, lira, Thailand. The substantial depreciation of baht and the Indonesian rupiah have in. Capital massive outflows challenges emerging economies already weak economic growth in the capital outflow of short-term liquidity will give emerging economies facing huge pressure, on the current account deficit, a larger impact in countries with high dependence on external financing, and the part of the double deficit countries currency stable cause severe challenges, even lead to possible depreciated payment difficulties, causing the risk of a systemic financial crisis.In June, emerging economies have taken measures against capital flight and currency fluctuations, India, Thailand's central bank sell dollar exchange rate, Brazil announced that it would ease part of 2010.The control measures; Indonesia has raised benchmark interest rates. It is important to note that in addition to external demand downturn and recent unrest external financial environment, emerging economies are also positive face the challenge of various structural problems, such as India's financial trade "double deficits", Russia energy dependence, inadequate investment in Brazil, South Africa's high unemployment, etc. How to effectively deal with malaise, get through the key link of steady growth as emerging economies decision-making authority facing important issues.Taken together, the second half of the international environment is still not optimistic, instability factors more. These will be on cross-border capital flows, exchange rate instability factors, international commodity product prices, the way such as foreign trade influence our country's macro economic and financial operation, and the directly or indirectly impact on the domestic banking sector.Secondly, our country economy half year review and perspective: five difficulties Since 2013, our country economic growth continued to slow, in the first half year, year-on-year increase in GDP is 7.6%, 0.2% lower than the same period last year。
How to Cope with the Economic CrisisThe global economy has been facing numerous challengesin recent years, with economic crises becoming increasingly frequent. These crises, often triggered by various factors such as financial market instability, political unrest, or natural disasters, can have devastating effects on businesses, individuals, and even entire nations. Therefore, it is crucial for everyone to understand how to cope withan economic crisis effectively.First and foremost, maintaining financial stability is essential during an economic crisis. This involves taking steps to protect personal and business assets, such as diversifying investment portfolios, reducing unnecessary expenses, and increasing savings. Additionally, it iscrucial to stay informed about the latest economic news and developments to make informed decisions.Moreover, governments and policymakers play a vitalrole in mitigating the impact of an economic crisis. They can implement policies such as fiscal stimulus packages, monetary easing, and regulatory reforms to support businesses and stabilize the economy. These measures canhelp restore confidence in the market, encourage investment, and promote economic growth.Individuals and businesses also need to adapt to the changing economic environment. This includes being flexible and innovative in terms of business models, products, and services. By understanding consumer needs and preferences, businesses can develop new strategies to attract customers and maintain market share. Similarly, individuals can enhance their skills and qualifications to increase their employability and earning potential.Furthermore, international cooperation is crucial in addressing economic crises. By working together, countries can share resources, knowledge, and best practices to mitigate the impact of the crisis. This can includeproviding financial assistance, supporting trade and investment, and coordinating policy responses.In conclusion, coping with an economic crisis requiresa comprehensive approach that involves individuals, businesses, governments, and international organizations.By maintaining financial stability, adapting to changingconditions, and fostering cooperation, we can mitigate the impact of the crisis and emerge stronger on the other side. **如何应对经济危机**近年来，全球经济面临着诸多挑战，经济危机频发。
高三英语经济现象解读单选题40题1. The economic growth of this country has been ______ in recent years.A. rapidB. rapidlyC. more rapidD. more rapidly答案：A。
本题考查形容词的用法。
“rapid”是形容词，可作表语，“rapidly”是副词，不能作表语。
“more rapid”和“more rapidly”用于比较级，但此处没有比较对象，所以用“rapid”，形容经济增长的状态。
2. The ______ of the new policy on the economy is still under discussion.A. influenceB. influentialC. influencedD. influentially答案：A。
“influence”是名词，“influential”是形容词，“influenced”是过去分词，“influentially”是副词。
本题需要一个名词，指新政策对经济的“影响”，所以选“influence”。
3. The price of oil has a ______ effect on the global economy.A. significantB. significantlyC. more significantD. most significant答案：A。
“significant”是形容词，“significantly”是副词。
此处需要形容词作定语修饰“effect”，没有比较级的语境，所以用“significant”。
4. The economic situation is becoming ______ complicated.A. increasinglyB. increaseC. increasedD. increasing答案：A。
