The Role of China in the European Debt Crisis
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RegionalTRade&invesTmenTEUROPETheRoleofChinaintheEuropeanDebtCrisisByCaiHongbo,YanPeiG20nanceministers’meet-ingclosedattheendofthisFebruaryfocusingonhowtoeffectivelypreventthedeteriorationofEuropeansovereigndebtcrisisandcallingforthe“self-help”ofeuro.Greeceisthecurrentfocusofthemediaattention,butseenfromFigure1,theothereurocountriesaren’tbetter.Portugal,Ireland,Spainarealldancingontheedgeofthecli.Startedfromlate2009,thisdebtcrisismadeitdifficultorimpossibleforsomecoun-triesintheeuroareatore-nancetheirgovernmentdebtwithouttheassistanceofthirdparties.Atthesametime,Chi-nahasahighforeignexchangereserve,reachingabout3trillionU.S.dollarsin2011,andEuropehasbeenhopingChinatolendahelpinghand.ShouldChinaplayarole?Chinesenetizensconsider“savingtheEuropeandebtcrisis”as“thelend-ingfromapoorboywhojustcanaordbreadtotherich”,whichisanunreason-ablebehavior.However,theundeniablefactisthatpoorboyandtherichliveinasameglobalvillage,thusintheback-groundofglobaleconomicintegration,ChinaandEUaresocloselyrelated.First,theEUisthecomprehensivestrategicpartnerofChina.ecollapseoftheeurowillmaketheU.S.dollarbe-comethesoleinternationalreservecur-rencyonceagain,sotheEU’sprosperityandtheeuro’sstrengthareinaccordwithChina’sstrategicinterests.Secondly,theEUhasbeenChina’slargesttradingpartnerforsevenyears,andisnowChina’slargestexportdesti-nation.AsprovidedinTable1,China-Uy%Fyy,f(%)yfcantly,farhigherthanothercountries.However,iftheEUfallsintoalong-termeconomicdownturn,itisboundtoseri-ouslyaecttheChina-EUtrade.ird,rescuingtheEuropeandebtcrisisbyproperwayshelpstoresolveeco-nomicandtradebarriers,enhancemutu-alcondenceanddeveloptheEuropeanmarket,whichareconductivetoChina-EUtradecooperationanddevelopmentinthefuture.Insummary,ChinashouldlendahelpinghandtoEuropeandplayauniqueroletosolvethedebtcrisis.HowcouldChinaplayarole?Firstandforemost,thetrulyeec-tivewayforChinatohelpEuropegetridofthedebtcrisisassoonaspossible,istoincreaseinvestmentinEU.ThisrequiresnotonlypositiveinvestmentaidsbutalsotheEU'ssinceritytocooperate.EUshouldnotblocktightlyonChinesehigh-techanylonger,butmoreopentoattracttheChinesecapital.AsoneofthemembersofG20,theChineseleadershavefrequentlydeclaredtohelpresolveEuropeandebtproblemsinapositiveway.AsearlyasSeptember14,2011,PremierWenJiabaosaidintheSummerDavosForumthatChinabelievesthattheEuropeaneconomycanovercomethediculties,andChinawaswillingtoexpandinvestmentinEurope.OnJanuary15,People’sBankofChinaGovernorZhouXiaochuansaidChinawouldcontinueto,undertheprincipleofsecurity,liquidityandincreasingvalue,investinEuropeangovernmentdebt,andgetmoreinvolvedineortstohelpresolvetheEuropeandebtcrisisviaallpossiblechannelssuchastheIMFandFSFF,,ybuyeuro-zonebonds,meanwhilein-creaseinvestmentinEuropeancountries,especiallydirectinvestmentofRMB.esemeasurescannotonlygreatlyal-leviatethedebtcrisisinEurope,butalsospeeduptheRMBinternationalizationandurgetheEUtograntChina’smarketeconomystatus.Andthen,Chinashoulddrawsup-portfromIMFinordertoreducetherescuerisksanddiculties,increasethesecurityoftherescuefunds,andraiseChina’spositionintheIMFaswellasintheworldmonetarysystem.Besides,forChineseenterprises,theEuropeandebtcrisisprovidesanoverseasacquisitionopportunity.Atthebeginningofthisyear,ShandongHeavyIndustryGroupbought75%stakeinamajorEuropeanyachtmanu-facturer,Italy’sFerrettiGroup,€374million.HeavyIndustryHoldingsCo.,Ltd.acquired100%ofGermany’sFigure1Long-terminterestratesofalleurozonecountries(2011.10.09-2012.02.12)
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B72Etradevolumeincreasedb4.7inebruarthisearowhichimportgrowth14.7isparticularlsignii-E.oranotherinthecurrentEurope-andebtcrisisChinashouldappropriatelatasource:EuropeanCentralank3EUROPEPutzmeisterequityfor€324million.AndChinaStateGridCorporationpurchased25%ofthesharesofthePortugueseNationalGridCompanywiththetradingpriceof€387million.AseriesofacquisitionsindicatethattheoverseasmergersandacquisitionsofChineseenterprisesareenteringanewphase.Howbigisthisrole?ForeignmediasaidthatfacingChina’s‘stubborn’attitudetotheEU’scarbontax,theEUchosetoremainsilentbecauseofitsdemandinChina,namelythehopethatChinawillbailoutthedebtcrisisinEurope.ObviouslyEuropeancountriesverymuchhopethatChinacanhelp.ButcanChinareallyplayasignicantrole?IfcarefullylookattheFigure2,wemayndthatalthoughEU’simportfromChinahasgrownrapidlyinthedecade,butitstilllagsfarbehindEU’simportfromU.S.andtheimportswithintheEU.ChinaisnotEU’slargestimportdestination.Besides,becauseChina’srigiddemandforEUproductsisrelativelygreaterandEUfrequentlytakesanti-dumpingmeasuresonChina’sexports,EU’stradedependenceonChinaissmall.Inotherwords,Chinadoesn’thaveabiginuenceontheEUeconomicandtrade.AccordingtoCommerceDepart-mentstatistics,China’sinvestmenttotheEUamountedto$4.278billionin2011,increasingby94.1percent,butTable2showsChina’sinvestmentincomeintheEUisfarbelowthatofUnitedStates,Brazil,Singapore,Australia,Canada,RussiaandotherEuropeancountries,es-peciallytheUnitedStates,whoseinvest-mentincomeintheEUissixtimesthatofChina.What’smore,manyChineseschol-arsbelievethatChinadoesn’thavetheabilitytorescueEUoutofthishugedebtcrisis.StatesmanandeconomistChengSiweibelievesthatChinacannotstagea“herototherescue”ofthedrama,cannotbe“aherotosaveEurope.”China’sGDPaccountsfor10%oftheworld,andChinacannoteasilydumpitsholdingsofU.S.Treasuriesofaround$1.14trillion,be-causesuchastepcouldsendU.S.bonds,f“yf”Figure2EU'smajorimportersandimportvalues(Unit:Millionsofeuro)