国际经济学基础

姓名：张婉玉学号：2009510106学院：外国语学院班级：09英语（4）班Trade Liberalization and Growth inDeveloping Countries----Problems and Measures【Abstract】Trade liberalization seems to be a double-edged sword, whose effects are much more obvious on developing countries rather than on developed ones. It has attached importance to developing countries and become the basis element they list into considerations about the external environment. In this paper, I would like to analyze trade liberalization's influences on developing countries, the serious problems facing them urgently to be solved, as well of the measures developing countries should take.【Key words】trade liberalization; developing countriesIntroductionStarting in the 1980s, many developing nations that had earlier followed an import substitution industrialization (ISI) strategy began to liberalize trade and adopt an outward orientation, which, in turn, resulted in a much higher degree of openness of international trade, a sharp increase in the ratio of manufactures in total exports, and higher rates of growth. The fact that many of the liberalizing developing countries joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) consolidated the reforms already undertaken and encouraged further reforms. These are likely to increase productivity and growth in developing countries during this decade.InfluencesUnderneath the tendency for economic globalization, trade liberalization not only influences the distribution of resources in developing countries, but also the rapid development of international trade. The rapid development of international trade can promote the procedure of deepening and expanding the international division and exchange of labor.It requires all the elements to flow freely so that it is possible to allocate them more effectively and more reasonably. On the dynamic process of trade liberalization, in order to adapt to the requirements of economic globalization, all of the countries have to gradually eliminate trade barriers and the discriminatory treatment. Thus, they can create a more capacious, more freely international trade environment. In the meanwhile, as the tendency of economic region collectivization is further developing, regional unrestricted trade will also develop very fast. Developing countries can not only make fullest their comparative advantages, carry out some effective economic policies which are made to order to promote the development of economy, but also take advantage of the regional trade system and area economic cooperation to counteract the bad effects of globalization. In addition, during the period of economic globalization, the adjustment and escalation of industrial structure in developed countries is beneficial to the developing countries’ introduction of advanced technology and equipment, so that they can better their own technology and the structure of industry and foreign trade to achieve their goal of economic booming.However, this process of development is full of disequilibrium. One of the reasons is that developing countries are not the sponsor or promoter in the process of economic globalization, let alone the leader. They are in the unfavorable position. In the current international trade system, economic globalization has accumulated wealth into a small number of developed countries and interest groups, as a result of which the disequilibrium between developed and developing countries is becoming more and more serious and the gap between them continues to widen. Moreover, developed countries obstruct the export of developing countries by increasing the tariff which badly hinders the globalization of the latter.ProblemsThe liberalization of trade is close-related to the globalization of economy. Developing countries under the influence of the expansion of economic globalization has been put into a complicated situation，manifesting in both economic and noneconomic fields.1. Worsen of conditions in trade leads to the disequilibrium of balance of payment.To most of the developing countries, the most important problems in the process of trade liberalization is that the terms of trade which export commodities require to manufactured products have been deteriorated. Since the trade pattern of many developing countries is to export primary products and import industrial products, in the situation of what we’ve mentioned abo ve, trade liberalization frequently leads to a greater demand of importing primary products rather than that of exporting industrial products. As a result, the trade deficits in developing countries are going up rapidly.2. The expected revenue of Uruguay Round failed to be achievedThe closure of Uruguay Round and the establishment of WTO once made developing countries expect to gain large amounts of profits by exporting more of their products which have taken up the comparative advantage into developed countries. However, till now, developing countries still haven’t achieved the expected revenue of Uruguay Round. How does it happen? First of all, the peak value of tariff still exists. In developed countries, the peak value of tariff aiming at many of the industrial products exporting from developing countries still exists, which makes their potential of export fail to realize. Secondly, developing countries failed to gain profits from the treaty of gradually reducing textile quota. According to the clause of cutting in stages in the Uruguay Round Agreements,the liberalization of the majority of products developed countries imported was just put into force during the last stage of the ten years transition, as a result of which, developing countries gained little revenue. Thirdly, the add of non-tariff barrier turned out to be a barrier to the development of trade in developing countries. Developed countries, especially America and the European Union, constantly make use of the measure of non-tariff barrier to hinder the development of trade in developing countries, particularly using quota and the punishment of anti-dumping. In the end, it not only killed the potential advantage of developing countries, but also restrained their existing competitive advantag e. People’s expectation of “fair play” could hardly achieve, thus it badly harm the interest of developing countries. Fourthly, thecontinuous highly protection of agricultural products. Agreement on Agriculture aims to facilitate the liberalization of importing agricultural products in each country especially in developed countries, as well as to decrease both the domestic subsidy and export subsidy, and then to improve the market access of exporting agricultural products in developing countries. Nevertheless, as a matter of fact, the protection and subsidy of developed countries still remains a relatively high level. By the end of the year 2000, the high tariff of developed countries had decreased by 36 per cent on average, but it was still very high. On the contrary, most of the developing countries promised that they would not add or increase the subsidy of agricultural products in the future.3. Developing countries are confronted with the implementation of the Uruguay Round AgreementsUruguay Round agreements require developing countries to change their policies to adapt to the liberalization of domestic economic development. However, many of the developing countries do not have the ability to implement these agreements. These agreements include,i)the Agreement on Agriculture. The agreement has brought many developing countries many serious negative effects. Most developing countries will have to cut their agricultural subsidies, eliminate the non-tariff measures to fall back on tariffs (tariffs also substantially reduced), which makes the domestic agricultural sector posted in a very disadvantaged position while facing of global competition. ii) Trade-Related Investment Measures (TRIMS). In a long term, there have been many measures used in developing countries, such as “local standards” and “foreign exchange balance standards” and others to maintain their balance of payments. But in the TRIMS, such measures are disabled from January 2000 onwards. This will result in loss of some of the important policy choices in the pursuit of industrialization in developing countries. iii) Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). TRIPS requires developing countries to adopt similar standards of intellectual property in developed countries, which would hinder the development of indigenous technologies in developing countries.MeasuresCurrently, for most of the developing countries, trade liberalization still has some unfavorable factors. Such as: uneven economic development within the region; the developing countries in specific economic development strategies and policy differences (such as tax structure, tariffs, labor policies, financial systems, etc.); in the process of economic development to solve many difficult problems (such as high unemployment, a serious shortage of domestic savings, a higher degree of reliance on foreign capital, the financial system more fragile, a huge amount of foreign debt) and so on. These problems not only in developing countries achieve economic growth, "hidden" and impede trade liberalization forward.However, economic globalization has become an irreversible trend of historical development, no country can evade or resist. As for developing countries, in order to benefit from economic globalization, we must actively participate in the process of trade liberalization.(a)Developing countries should actively pursue the strategic choice in the process of trade liberalizationFor most developing countries, trade liberalization should be selective, and phased trade liberalization. Successful precedents are mostly transferred from import substitution toexport-oriented. Developing countries should adopt an open strategy, and actively participate in international division of labor and cooperation efforts with the international economy, so that there may be a possibility to achieve free movement of trade between countries. At the same time, we’ll have to solve the problem of relationship among continuous growth of export-orienting, comprehensive liberalization and neutral trade policy, industrial policy and a positive relationship between export-oriented transformations.(b)Timely implementation of selective trade protection policyLiberal trade in the modern world is not the classical-style liberal trade any more. Instead, it has mixed with protectionism, to some extend. Developing countries should not just pursue trade liberalization and yet blindly give up intervention in the economy, as a result of which, in the framework of trade liberalization system, there is still a reason able space for government’s intervention. i) Moderate trade protection policies can foster infant industries in developing countries to achieve good results so that their potential comparative advantage can be quickly converted into real comparative advantage; ii) Moderate trade protection policies, in manufacturing, services industry and other industries gradually emerging from the comparative advantage to cultivate in order to seize the opportunity to get more trade interests; iii) Moderate trade protection policy can improve terms of trade of developing countries and their unfavorable situation in the system of international division of labor.(c)Active participation in the multilateral trading system and negotiationsAccording to the game theory, the international trade policy in reality is actually the result of national policy game. A country's current trade policy and the degree of intervention in trade is actually a reflection of balance with each other (but not necessarily fair). In this balanced patternof interests, any attempt to implement a country's unilateral liberalization efforts is rarely a success. And that both sides choose trade protection policy, no doubt it will bring damage to national interests, and may lead to protection escalation until a trade war. In the dynamic case of non-repeated game, the national trade policy options will change the direction of trade liberalization, and the key is the existence of trusted promises between them. The multilateral trading system can provide uniform rules and laws to ensure the game system, bringing all the parties interests of liberal trade.When the original form of the liberal trade agreement has been replaced by a multilateral agreement, multilateral trading system and the global trend of trade liberalization are bound to greatly promote the process of global trade liberalization. This is because the characteristics on mechanism for multilateral trade agreements make it far more as a high commitment signal than just as bilateral agreement s. Thereby it greatly reduced the phenomenon of the parties’ default due to the change of pattern in domestic interest. In addition, in many trade liberalization negotiations, developing countries should actively seek their own interests, such as, the elimination of developed countries’ high tariffs on agricultural imports and the reduction of agricultural subsidies; rigorous review of anti-dumping practical qualifications, and so on.ConclusionIn this paper, we have tested a dynamic model of growth in the context of several samples and the problems developing countries facing and, more importantly, several measures of liberalization. Our results suggest that liberalization may impact unfavorably on economic growth in developing countries. But, if we actively take measures to fight against the bad effects, I'm sure, in the near future, we'll finally achieve the expectation we call win-win.。