学业论文
The Price Changing Trend and Influencing Factors of
Gasoline in China
中国汽油价格的发展趋势及影响因素
院系名称：地球物理与信息工程学院
专业名称：勘查技术与工程
英语班级：
学生姓名：黎丁源
学号：
指导教师：梅丽
完成日期 2014 年 6 月 8 日
The Price Changing Trend and Influencing Factors of
Gasoline in China
Abstract
Since 2002, the growth of international oil price is going up sharply. The oil prices in different areas have changed at the same time. According to some experts, Chinese gasoline price is affected by perplexing-related factors. This paper indicates the price changing trend of China and the world; reports the results of a study on the influencing factors. The study used the prices of oil in the past years to find the changing trend and used the ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) to analysis the factors affecting gasoline price. The study found that the gasoline price was going up and would not slow down in a short time. In addition, the international crude oil price is the highest related factor affecting Chinese gasoline price.
1. Introduction
Oil price has always been an issue in any period for its great importance. In every country, people often talk about oil price when gathering together because it becomes a common topic related to our lives. Nowadays, it seems that oil price is controlled by a complex net of factors. In order to find the connections between the gasoline price and the influencing factors, the important factors need to be studied. By building the ISM to analysis factors, we believe that the immediate causes are the price of international oil, the supply of petroleum product, the demand and the competition of companies. The underlying causes are the environment-protecting policy, the import, the reserve system, the bunker surcharge and smuggle. The deeper reasons include exiting alternative energy sources and international trade. The price of crude oil is the primary one (Wang, 2012). We all know it will be different in different place. For example, in Sichuan, the immediate causes are the demand, supply and competition of the oil market. By building the ISM, they could stabilize the price, establish a good market order (Yu＆Zhang, 2001). In fact, the priority is to provide some policies to make everything seem right (Wang＆Qu＆Lv, 2006).
However, the ISM could not contain all the factors, we still can not get the most right connections. It can almost indicate the trend and we believe the data is available.
This paper attempts to answer the following questions:
1. What’s the trend of oil price? What’re the difference and connection between China and the world in oil price changing trend?
2. What are the influencing factors? Do they have something in common? What’s the connection? Which is the most important and highest related one?
3. How can we get rid of the price risk?
The price changing trend of China and the world is presented in part II. In part III, a brief view of the ISM is presented. In part IV, the studies of representative factors are carried out. In part V, the priority cause will be discussed and a brief conclusion is presented in Section VI.
2.The price changing trend
Comparing the price of gasoline in China and the world, we can fully understand the price changing trend and the connection between others.
Table 1 shows the gasoline price in China from 2002 to 2012.
Table 1: gasoline price in China from 2002—2012
By using the excel，we can get the price trend of the gasoline in China from 2002 to 2012 as follows.
Figure 1: gasoline price in China from 2002-2012
Table 2 shows the gasoline price in the world from 2002 to 2012.
Table 2: gasoline price in the world from 2002—2012 By using the excel as well，we can get the price trend of the gasoline in the world
