(完整word版)中国上证指数历史平均市盈率一览表
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后"金融危机时代":为何中国股市弱于美国股市?编者按:2008年金融危机爆发后,香港恒生指数在2008年10月27日见底,上证指数则在10月28日见底,而美国股市在2009年3月6日才真正见底。
在政府4万亿刺激政策的推动下,中国股市率先在全球回升。
不过,之后A股和港股的走势就相对疲弱。
上证指数在2009年8月后就一直处于调整态势,恒生指数在2010年11月也阶段性见顶,而美国股市今年5月才出现顶部。
可以说,A股和港股过去一段时间的走势相对于外围市场是偏弱的。
在经济日益全球化的今天,A股、港股和美股三个市场之间,会有什么样的联动关系呢?证券时报记者采访了专注于研究不同市场联动关系的东航金融海外金融部经理廖料。
对于美联储的未来政策,廖料认为,由于通胀上行,共和党反对声音大,对于量化宽松政策的效果,市场几乎形成共识认为作用不大,所以9月份美联储继续通过购买债券扩大资产负债表规模概率不高,可能维持现有资产负债表规模而调整持有债券结构。
未来1年,债券到期资金超过3000亿,规模也不小。
下调超额储备金率也有可能。
如果未来经济进一步恶化,美联储或许会购买更多的债券扩大资产负债表规模。
证券时报记者钟恬证券时报记者:金融危机主要集中爆发于欧美,但从股市表现上看,A股和港股反而更弱一些,为什么会出现这种情况?廖料:我们认为主要有三点原因:第一,中国经济在周期上领先欧美。
金融危机后,内地GDP同比增速的低点和高点分别在2009年一季度的6.6%和2010年一季度的11.9%。
反观美国,GDP同比增速的低点和高点分别为2009年二季度和2010年三季度。
中国经济领先美国,反映到股市上,也就出现了中国股市先见底也先见顶的走势。
第二,从政策上看,为了抑制房价过快上涨和抗击通胀,中国在2009年末开始出台房地产调控措施,2010年10月开始加息,这些政策对于股市都形成了一定的影响。
反观欧美,由于通胀压力相对较小,刺激政策和货币政策不断,去年11月美国还推出了QE2,政策的不同取向带来了股市的不同走势。
上证指数历史数据【1】(2010-04-06 18:19:30)转载第一轮暴涨暴跌:100点——1429点——400点。
以1990年12月19日为基期,中国股市从100点起步,1992年5月26日【星期二、壬申乙巳壬寅,上证指数就狂飙至1429.01点,历时17个月,这是中国股市第一个大牛市的“顶峰”,上证指数【暴涨1329%】。
随后股市便是迅猛而恐慌地回跌,暴跌5个月后,1992年11月17日【星期二、壬申辛亥丁酉二黑】,上证指数回落至386.85(400点下方)【跌幅72.9%】。
*1992年5月26日1429.01点【星期二、壬申乙巳壬寅八白】【涨幅1329%】NO.1。
*1992年11月17日386.85点【星期二、壬申辛亥丁酉二黑】【跌幅72.9%】NO.2。
第二轮暴涨暴跌:400点——1536点——333点。
上证指数从1992年底的400点低谷启航,开始了它的第二轮“大起大落”。
这一次暴涨来得更为猛烈,从400点附近极速地窜至1993年2月16日1558.95点收盘(上证指数第一次站上1500点之上),仅用了3个月的时间,上证指数上涨了1173点,【涨幅303%】。
股指在1500点上方站稳了4天之后,便调头持续下跌。
这一次下跌基本上没遇上任何阻力,但下跌时间较上一轮要长,持续阴跌达17个月之久。
1994年7月29日,上证指数跌至这一轮行情的最低点325.89点【跌幅79%】。
*1993年2月16日1558.95点【星期二、癸酉甲寅戊辰八白】【涨幅303%】NO.3。
*1994年7月29日325.89点【星期五、甲戌辛未丙辰九紫】【跌幅79%】NO.1。
第三轮暴涨暴跌:333点——1053点——512点。
由于三大政策救市,1994年8月1日,新一轮行情再次启动,这一轮大牛行情来得更加猛烈而短暂,仅用一个多月时间,上证指数就猛窜至1994年9月13日的最高点1052.94点,【涨幅为222%】。
A股历史平均市盈率(1999年—2012年12月)(2012-12-3119:55:35)转载▼今天是2012年的最后一个交易日,指数收盘于2269点。
沪市总市值15.8698万亿、深市总市值7.1659万亿,两市总市值相加为23.0358万亿,上证静态PE12.3倍。
(12月4日指数创出09年年初以来的新低1949点,当日收盘于1975点、沪市PE10.69倍)2011年国内生产总值47.1564万亿;当前两市总市值和2011年GDP的比值(证券化率)为48.84%。
按7.5%的增长率计算,预计2012年我国国内生产总值可达到50.69万亿,当前动态证券化率为:45.44%。
巴菲特认为:所有上市公司总市值占GNP的比率(证券化率)在70%—80%之间时买入股票,长期而言可能会让投资者有相当不错的报酬,但若这个比率达到200%,那么购买股票简直就是在玩火。
股市进入泡沫的标志:证券化率升到1倍以上。
2007年4月指数上升到3500点、赵丹阳先生卖出股票、整体市场开始进入泡沫阶段,最后延续到10月份6124点泡沫破灭—证券化率近1.5倍。
市场从进入泡沫(证券化率1倍)到泡沫破灭(证券化率1.5倍)可以持续相当长的一段时间。
同样的,整体市场进入低估阶段(证券化率不到50%)也会持续相当长的一段时间,正如最难熬的、也是最具有投资价值、逐渐买进股票的2012年下半年。
打死不开悟在12月10日写下这样一篇博客《1949解放全体股民同胞?》。
让我意想不到的是,仅仅过了三周时间、上证指数就轻轻松松站在年线上方!——————————————————————————————————————————————2012年12月31日收盘上证年线图:(今年年线微涨3.17%)A股市场22年来,指数跌破15年均线的一共是3次:998点、1664点和2012年的第四季度。
前两次都是历史性大底,这一次会成为例外吗?只要人类社会的不断进步、经济在不断发展、GDP总量的不断增加。
上证指数市盈率十二年走势图上证指数市盈率十二年走势图(1999.01至2011.10)(2011-11-05 23:27:58)上图为上证指数1999年1月至2011年10月市盈率走势图上图为上证指数1999年1月至2011年10月月线走势图从上面的图表可以得出以下结论:1、指数从长期看是不断创新高的过程、底部也将不断抬高,而平均市盈率则在一个相对确定区间内循环波动。
因此,平均市盈率在很大程度上,反映出市场整体投资价值。
2、整体市盈率倍数是衡量市场投资价值的重要依据之一。
但应以区间视角来看待,切勿用具体的数据来衡量顶与底。
想判断当前指数的高低,与其关注具体点位、不如长期跟踪上证市盈率均值的变化。
3、从二十年的历史来看,上证平均市盈率20倍以下是投资区域,20-25倍是绝对安全区域、25-35倍相对安全、50倍以上泡沫、20倍以下超卖。
4、从国际市场来看,美国与香港,通常是在市盈率十倍以下,极端情况下8倍以下,就是一个底部。
中国市场与成熟市场接轨是必然的,但这个过程是漫长的。
现在宜综合考虑市盈率情况,既不宜用过去20倍市盈率即安全的观点,也不能一味用成熟市场市盈率标准来衡量市场。
即使在香港,目前创业板的整体市盈率也在40倍以上。
而国内的创业板质地,肯定比香港创业板公司的质地要好得多。
就算纳斯达克市场,虽然出过伟大的企业,但也曾经有五千多家破产,而中国的创业板,我们结合中国的实际情况,可想而知,不会破产很多的,目前上市的企业,都已经接近成熟的企业。
截止2011年11月4日,上证指数2528.29点、平均市盈率15.32倍,在历史上处于低位区域。
但深圳市场因为中小板与创业板缘故,市盈率稍高。
数据来源 /gb//chi/csm/highlight.asp?LangCode=tc 中国A股市场底部有如下特征,由此可以判断上证大型底部是否到来!1.市赢率:股票市场永远在超跌和超涨中循环往复,2007年造就了平均70倍市赢率的超级泡膜,那是因为牛市,现在平均市赢率不到20倍,但仍然没有到底部,真正的底部历史早就告诉我们,会出现10倍,5倍市赢率的股票,而平均市赢率应该在15倍以下,底部才会真正的到来.2.市净率:底部来临的时候,起码有30%的股票跌破每股净资产,70%的股票的市净率在1-1.5倍之间。
历史统计--沪市大盘市场平均市盈率以及平均价1994.1.20沪市大盘平均市盈率35.28倍---大盘见所谓777"铁底"---后照样无情跌穿---平均股价12.06元1994.7.29沪市大盘平均市盈率10.65倍----大盘见历史大底325点---大熊市结束---平均股价4.24元1994.9.13沪市大盘平均市盈率33.56倍---大盘见阶段顶1052点---平均股价13.911995.2.7沪市大盘平均市盈率18.97倍---大盘见阶段顶926点---平均股价7.14元1996.1.19沪市大盘平均市盈率19.44倍---大盘见历史大底512点---大牛市开始---平均股价6.17元1996.12.11平均市盈率47.89倍---大盘见短期阶段顶1258点---平均股价13.1元1996.12.25平均市盈率33.62倍---大盘见历史大底855点---平均股价9.44元1997.5.12平均市盈率59.64倍----大盘见阶段大顶1510点---大熊市开始---15.16 元1997.7.8平均市盈率38.17倍---大盘见阶段大底1025点---平均股价10.43元1998.6.4平均市盈率46.27倍---大盘见阶段顶1422点---平均股价13.13元1998.8.18平均市盈率38.83倍----大盘见阶段大底1043点---平均股价9.96元1998.11.17平均市盈率47.04倍---大盘见阶段顶1300点---平均股价11.97元1999.5.17平均市盈率38.09倍----大盘见阶段大底1047点---5.19行情爆发---大牛市开始---平均股价9.26元1999.6.30平均市盈率63.08倍---大盘见中级调整顶1756点---平均股价14.1元1999.12.27平均市盈率48.75倍---大盘见大底1341点---2.14行情1爆发---大牛市开始---平均股价10.96元2000.2.17平均市盈率58.42倍----大盘见1770创出1756历史新高---平均股价13.68元2000.8.22平均市盈率63,73倍----大盘见2114阶段短期的顶---平均股价16.4元2000,9.25平均市盈率57.37倍----大盘见阶段低点1874点---平均股价15.06元2001.1.11平均市盈率63.01倍----大盘见阶段高点2131.98点2001.2.22平均市盈率56.83倍----大盘见阶段低点1893点2001.6.14平均市盈率66.16倍----大盘见历史大顶2245点---大牛市结束---大熊市开始---平均股价17.51元2002.1.29平均市盈率40.68倍---大盘见阶段低点1339点2002.6.25平均市盈率76.7倍----大盘见阶段高点1748点----平均股价12.69元2003.1.6平均市盈率42.18倍----大盘见阶段低点1311点2003.4.16平均市盈率36.14倍----大盘见阶段高点1649点2003.11.13平均市盈率39.91倍----大盘见阶段底1307点---平均股价7.46元2004.4.7平均市盈率38.81倍----大盘见阶段中级顶顶1783点---熊市开始---平均股价10.17元2005.6.6平均市盈率15.42倍----大盘见历史大底998点----大牛市开始---大熊市结束---平均股价4.77元2006.7.5平均市盈率23.31倍----大盘位于1757点2007.2.27平均市盈率35.25倍---大盘位于3049点---平均股价9.91元2007.5.29平均市盈率36.4倍----大盘见阶段高点4335点---平均股价18.31元2007.6.5平均市盈率31.1倍---大盘阶段性大底3404点---平均股价14.55元2007.10.16沪市大盘平均市盈率47.04倍----大盘位于6124点---平均股价20.16元2007.11.6沪市大盘平均市盈率44.53倍---大盘位于5536点---平均股价17.9元从历史行情的顶和底以及相应的市盈率和历史平均股价对比来看大盘平均市盈率的高低和股票平均股价的高低和大盘指数的顶与底确实有一定的关系历史上沪市a股平均市盈率最低最高在10.65倍和76.7倍之间波动历史上沪市a股平均股价最低最高在4.24元和20.16元之间波动通过历史数据对比可得出初步结论----中国股市历史大盘平均市盈率在20倍以下应该是对应的就是大牛市的相对底部---低风险投资区域1994年325点的大底平均市盈率 10.65倍--平均平均股价股价仅4.24元1996年512大底市盈率19.44倍--平均股价6.17元2005年998大底市盈15.42倍--4.77元中国股市历史大盘平均市盈率在55倍以上应该是对应的就是大牛市的相对高位---高风险区投机区域实证案例---1997年1510点大顶平均市盈率59.64倍---平均股价15.16元1999年1756点中期大顶平均市盈率63.08倍---平均股价14,1元2001年2245大顶平均市盈率66.16倍---平均股价17.51元希望以上资料对你有所帮助,附励志名言3条:1、宁可辛苦一阵子,不要苦一辈子。
A股历史平均市盈率(99年—2013年5月)————兼对银行股的分析昨天是5月份的最后一个交易日,指数收盘于2300点。
沪市总市值16.2317万亿、深市总市值8.5437万亿,两市总市值相加为24.7755万亿,上证静态PE仅仅11.81倍、PB1.57倍:(去年12月4日指数创出新低1949点,当日收盘于1975点、沪市PE10.69倍)(5月31日上海市场)(5月31日深圳市场)(2012年12月4日最低点1949)从A股长期(十年)市盈率和市净率观察,这两个估值指标均处于近十年来的历史最低位:1、 A股长期(十年)市盈率分布图:2、A股长期(十年)市净率分布图:本月份上证指数上涨5.63%、深成指上涨6.52%,结束前期的月线三连阴。
中小板上涨14.52%、创业板上涨20.65%,基本上可以定义为继1949—2444点之后的第二波行情的启动。
只要人类社会不断进步、经济不断发展、GDP总量不断增加。
从长期看,股市每隔几年总是呈现出底部不断抬升的客观运行规律:1996年我们告别了500点,2005年我们跟1000点永别,2008年10月世界金融危机、指数再也没有回到1500点。
这一次可能跟以前不同了,以前N次反弹之后指数还会继续创出新低;这一次从1949解放底抬升之后,应该要和2000点永远说再见了!去年12月的1949点继325、512、998、1664点之后,又成为一个历史性大底的概率达到90%!国家统计局公布的2012年我国国内生产总值(GDP)为51.9322万亿,5月31日、两市总市值和2012年GDP的比值(证券化率)为:24.7755万亿÷51.9322万亿=47.71%。
证券化率,一般习惯只计算两市总市值,不包括海外香港、美国等境外部分市值。
巴菲特2001年底在《财富》杂志的一篇访谈中说:“虽然证券总市值/ GDP的比值(证券化率)作为分析工具有其自身的局限性,但是如只选择一个指标来判断整体市场的估值水平时,则它可能是最好的指标”。
上证指数二十年统计分析从90年12月至今,中国证券市场发展逾二十年,有无规律可循?分别以年和月为单位,尝试从指数的涨跌变化的统计中,追溯二十年来波浪起伏的变化过程。
首先来看在二十一年历史中,中国证券市场上涨年份和下跌年份的比例。
上图是上证指数21年的年线图。
分析:共10年上涨年度 91年、92年、96年、97年、99年、00年、03年、06年、07年、09年共6年下跌年度 94年、01年、02年、04年、08年、10年持平年度 90年、93年、95年、98年、05年 共6年(上涨或下跌幅度为超过10%按持平计算)以上图表可知上涨年度为47%,下跌年度为28.5%,持平年度为23.8%由此可知,即使是中国证券市场,上涨年度也远远大于下跌年度。
上面的分析存在两个问题:1只考虑了指数波动的时间而未考虑指数波动的幅度。
2.以年为时间跨度太不精确。
为解决第一个问题接下来分析指数波动的周期:周期 年份 时间 指数变化 幅度上涨周期 90-93年 3年 95.79-833.8 770.44% 下跌周期 94-95年 2年 833.8-555.29-33.4%上涨周期 96-00年 5年 550.26-2073.47 276.82% 下跌周期 01-05年 5年 2077.07-1161.06 -44.1%上涨周期 06-07年 2年 1163.88-5261.56 352.07% 下跌周期 08——至今 2.5年 5265.00-2572.03 -51.15% 从上表中可以得知,指数在这二十年间,上涨的幅度远远大于下跌的幅度。
上涨幅度合计:1399.33% 下跌幅度合计:126.65%当然,从2000点上涨至4000点,上涨幅度为100%而从4000点下跌至2000点,下跌幅度为50%由此我们有必要修正上涨幅度,采取的方法是上涨幅度除以2修正后的上涨幅度为699.67% ,仍然远远大于下跌幅度。
为解决第二个问题,可以将分析周期扩大到月线图。
市盈率(整体法) [财务数据匹配规则]当年中报×2[剔除规则]不调整市净率(整体法)[财务数据匹配规则]当年中报[剔除规则]不调整市销率(整体法)[财务数据匹配规则]当年中报×2[剔除规则]不调整市现率(整体法)[财务数据匹配规则]当年中报×2[剔除规则]不调整总市值(合计)[单位] 亿元总股本(合计)[单位] 亿股收盘价(总股本加权平均)[单位] 元时间上证综合指数成份上证综合指数成份上证综合指数成份上证综合指数成份上证综合指数成份上证综合指数成份上证综合指数成份1990-12-1918.1911.819.1316.670.09179.1 1990-12-2019.0912.0919.1617.080.09183.46 1990-12-2120.0512.6319.2117.850.09191.73 1990-12-2421.0613.2119.2718.660.09200.44 1990-12-2522.1113.7919.3219.480.09209.28 1990-12-2623.2114.1619.3620.010.09214.91 1990-12-2723.2114.1619.3620.010.09214.93 1990-12-2823.4514.2919.3720.190.09216.89 1990-12-3123.6814.4219.3920.380.09218.89 1991-01-0236.56 5.3710.4820.560.09220.9 1991-01-0336.9 5.4210.4820.750.09222.95 1991-01-0437.24 5.4710.4920.940.09225 1991-01-0737.41 5.4910.4921.040.09226.05 1991-01-0837.6 5.5210.4921.150.09227.18 1991-01-0937.77 5.5510.4921.240.09228.22 1991-01-1037.94 5.5710.521.340.09229.26 1991-01-1138.13 5.610.521.440.09230.38 1991-01-1438.22 5.6110.521.50.09230.94 1991-01-1538.31 5.6310.521.550.09231.49 1991-01-1638.23 5.6110.521.510.09231.03 1991-01-1738.15 5.610.521.460.09230.55 1991-01-1838.06 5.5910.521.410.09230 1991-01-2138 5.5810.521.380.09229.65 1991-01-2237.85 5.5610.521.290.09228.73 1991-01-2337.7 5.5410.4921.20.09227.78 1991-01-2437.54 5.5110.4921.110.09226.83 1991-01-2537.38 5.4910.4921.030.09225.88 1991-01-2837.23 5.4710.4920.940.09224.96 1991-01-2937.22 5.4710.4920.940.09224.91 1991-01-3037.21 5.4710.4920.930.09224.86 1991-01-3137.21 5.4610.4920.930.09224.84 1991-02-0137.21 5.4610.4920.930.09224.84 1991-02-0437.21 5.4610.4920.930.09224.83 1991-02-0537.2 5.4610.4920.930.09224.8 1991-02-0637.39 5.4910.4921.030.09225.91 1991-02-0737.57 5.5210.4921.130.09227.03 1991-02-0837.76 5.5410.4921.240.09228.14 1991-02-1137.94 5.5710.521.340.09229.251991-02-1238.09 5.5910.521.420.09230.16 1991-02-1338.27 5.6210.521.530.09231.26 1991-02-1438.46 5.6510.521.630.09232.41 1991-02-1938.64 5.6710.521.730.09233.46 1991-02-2038.76 5.6910.5121.80.09234.21 1991-02-2138.95 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4.3110.3916.520.1163.42 1991-05-0629.09 4.2710.3916.360.1161.88 1991-05-0728.82 4.2310.3816.210.1160.34 1991-05-0828.54 4.1910.3816.050.1158.83 1991-05-0928.28 4.1510.3815.910.1157.36 1991-05-1028.01 4.1110.3715.760.1155.87 1991-05-1327.78 4.0810.3715.630.1154.58 1991-05-1427.64 4.0610.3715.550.1153.83 1991-05-1527.52 4.0410.3715.480.1153.11 1991-05-1627.13 3.9810.3615.260.1150.98 1991-05-1727.4 4.0210.3715.410.1152.46 1991-05-2027.64 4.0610.3715.550.1153.82 1991-05-2127.9 4.110.3715.70.1155.27 1991-05-2227.89 4.110.3715.690.1155.2 1991-05-2327.9 4.110.3715.690.1155.23 1991-05-2428.16 4.1410.3715.840.1156.7 1991-05-2728.35 4.1610.3815.950.1157.75 1991-05-2828.62 4.210.3816.10.1159.23 1991-05-2928.9 4.2410.3816.260.1160.84 1991-05-3029.19 4.2910.3916.420.1162.44 1991-05-3129.35 4.3110.3916.510.1163.33 1991-06-0329.65 4.3510.3916.670.1164.96 1991-06-0429.94 4.410.416.840.1166.6 1991-06-0530.24 4.4410.417.010.1168.26 1991-06-0630.53 4.4810.417.170.1169.91 1991-06-0730.71 4.5110.4117.270.1170.86 1991-06-1031.01 4.5510.4117.440.1172.55 1991-06-1131.32 4.610.4117.620.1174.29 1991-06-1231.64 4.6510.4217.790.1176.04 1991-06-1331.95 4.6910.4217.970.1177.79 1991-06-1431.65 4.6510.4217.80.1176.09 1991-06-1731.96 4.6910.4217.980.1177.85 1991-06-1832.28 4.7410.4318.160.1179.63 1991-06-1932.6 4.7910.4318.340.1181.42 1991-06-2032.93 4.8410.4318.520.1183.24 1991-06-2133.26 4.8810.4418.710.1185.05 1991-06-2433.58 4.9310.4418.890.1186.88 1991-06-2533.92 4.9810.4519.080.1188.76 1991-06-2634.26 5.0310.4519.270.1190.66 1991-06-2734.61 5.0810.4519.470.1192.57 1991-06-2834.96 5.1310.4619.660.1194.51 1991-07-0134.93 5.1310.4619.650.1194.39 1991-07-0234.6 5.0810.4519.460.1192.52 1991-07-0334.58 5.0810.4519.450.1192.44 1991-07-0434.93 5.1310.4619.650.1194.35 1991-07-0534.92 5.1310.4619.640.1194.29 1991-07-0834.9 5.1310.4619.630.1194.21 1991-07-0934.9 5.1310.4619.630.1194.18 1991-07-1034.89 5.1210.4619.630.1194.15 1991-07-1134.89 5.1210.4619.630.1194.16 1991-07-1234.9 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4.5813.2442.170.11389.07 1992-01-0850.62 4.613.2442.40.11391.2 1992-01-0950.88 4.6313.2442.610.11393.2 1992-01-1051.18 4.6513.2442.860.11395.47 1992-01-1348.18 4.4913.1644.830.13349.17 1992-01-1448.41 4.5113.1645.030.13350.8 1992-01-1548.67 4.5313.1645.280.13352.68 1992-01-1648.68 4.5313.1645.280.13352.75 1992-01-1748.69 4.5413.1645.290.13352.82 1992-01-2048.69 4.5413.1745.30.13352.85 1992-01-2148.93 4.5613.1745.520.13354.61 1992-01-2248.94 4.5613.1745.530.13354.68 1992-01-2348.96 4.5613.1745.550.13354.79 1992-01-2449.2 4.5813.1745.770.13356.57 1992-01-2749.66 4.6313.1746.20.13359.86 1992-01-2849.69 4.6313.1746.220.13360.07 1992-01-2949.92 4.6513.1746.440.13361.74 1992-01-3050.17 4.6713.1846.670.13363.57 1992-01-3150.42 4.713.1846.910.13365.4 1992-02-0350.45 4.713.1846.930.13365.58 1992-02-0750.45 4.713.1846.940.13365.62 1992-02-1050.72 4.7313.1847.190.13367.56 1992-02-1150.74 4.7313.1847.20.13367.69 1992-02-1250.74 4.7313.1847.210.13367.73 1992-02-1350.72 4.7313.1847.190.13367.59 1992-02-1450.71 4.7213.1847.180.13367.51 1992-02-1750.72 4.7313.1847.190.13367.59 1992-02-1862.98 5.8713.2658.590.13456.41 1992-02-1967.07 6.2513.2962.40.13486.08 1992-02-2070.47 6.5713.3165.560.13510.7 1992-02-2163.35 5.7413.1876.630.15534.38 1992-02-2463.48 5.7513.1876.840.15535.76 1992-02-2563 5.7113.1777.240.15537.56 1992-02-2662.57 5.6713.1777.60.15539.19 1992-02-2763.11 5.7213.1777.940.15541.85 1992-02-2863.33 5.7413.1878.280.15544.14 1992-03-0263.22 5.7313.1778.630.15546.08 1992-03-0363.37 5.7413.1878.980.15548.4 1992-03-0463.51 5.7613.1879.20.15549.87 1992-03-0563.62 5.7713.1879.450.15551.51 1992-03-0663.9 5.7913.1879.690.15553.27 1992-03-0963.88 5.7913.1879.660.15553.07 1992-03-1064.14 5.8113.1979.930.15555.01 1992-03-1164.21 5.8213.1980.170.15556.5 1992-03-1264.22 5.8213.1980.320.15557.43 1992-03-1364.29 5.8313.1980.430.15558.171992-03-1664.42 5.8413.1980.630.15559.48 1992-03-1764.52 5.8513.1980.920.15561.34 1992-03-1864.49 5.8413.1981.130.15562.58 1992-03-1964.63 5.8613.1981.60.15565.52 1992-03-2064.94 5.8813.1982.080.15568.78 1992-03-2365.29 5.9213.282.690.15572.8 1992-03-2465.59 5.9413.283.370.15577.22 1992-03-2565.39 5.9313.283.050.15575.1 1992-03-2665.73 5.9613.283.710.15579.44 1992-03-2743.02 4.1212.4698.420.78129.4 1992-03-3042.99 4.1212.4698.610.78129.59 1992-03-3142.91 4.1112.4698.640.78129.6 1992-04-0142.86 4.1112.4698.760.78129.71 1992-04-0242.85 4.112.4698.860.78129.82 1992-04-0342.88 4.1112.4699.070.78130.07 1992-04-0642.86 4.1112.4699.140.78130.14 1992-04-0742.95 4.1112.4699.260.78130.32 1992-04-0843.01 4.1212.4699.440.78130.55 1992-04-0943.03 4.1212.4799.610.78130.75 1992-04-1043.11 4.1312.4799.690.78130.87 1992-04-1344.32 4.2512.49103.030.78135.16 1992-04-1446.44 4.4512.53108.850.78142.64 1992-04-1547.35 4.5412.55111.340.78145.84 1992-04-1647.36 4.5412.55111.360.78145.86 1992-04-1747.01 4.512.55110.40.78144.63 1992-04-2045.6 4.3712.52106.520.78139.65 1992-04-2145.45 4.3512.51106.110.78139.12 1992-04-2244.7 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1993-05-0662.117.1913.351909.66124.4115.51 1993-05-0764.047.4213.491972.53124.4116.02 1993-05-1060.33 6.9913.231849.42124.4115.03 1993-05-1160.767.0413.261862.55124.4115.14 1993-05-1260.947.0613.271868.67124.4115.19 1993-05-1362.857.2813.411932.25124.4115.7 1993-05-1462.337.2213.371915.56124.4115.56 1993-05-1760.26 6.9813.221847.49124.9614.95 1993-05-1860.827.0512.991950.15131.5914.97 1993-05-1961.557.1413.041981.8131.5915.21 1993-05-2062.317.2213.092017.03131.5915.47 1993-05-2161.197.0913.011982.56131.5915.2 1993-05-2454.06 6.412.231792.87132.7813.63 1993-05-2552.73 6.2512.131739.13132.7813.23 1993-05-2652.64 6.2412.121734.06132.7813.2 1993-05-2750.91 6.0311.991676.59132.7812.76 1993-05-2851.31 6.0812.021693.71132.7812.89 1993-05-3149.03 5.8311.881651.63135.3412.34 1993-06-0148.63 5.7811.851640.34135.3412.25 1993-06-0255.93 6.6512.411917.23135.3414.29 1993-06-0352.69 6.2612.151805.23135.3413.46 1993-06-0452.24 6.2112.131781.05135.3413.29 1993-06-0756.64 6.5212.351949.32139.3614.11 1993-06-0857.2 6.5912.41966.01139.3614.24 1993-06-0956.57 6.5212.351945.95139.3614.09 1993-06-1055.47 6.4311.781930.74139.9313.92 1993-06-1155.63 6.4511.791935.8139.9313.96 1993-06-1453.54 6.2111.471866.61141.6713.3 1993-06-1553.66 6.2211.481872.55141.6713.34 1993-06-1653.7 6.2211.481876.5141.6713.37 1993-06-1753.33 6.1811.451864.07141.6713.28 1993-06-1853.65 6.2211.481882.32141.6713.4 1993-06-2151.58 5.9811.311807.19144.6612.6 1993-06-2251.67 5.9911.321814.96144.6612.66 1993-06-2351.86 6.0111.331826.71144.6612.73 1993-06-2451.61 5.9811.311814.9144.6612.65 1993-06-2553.04 6.1511.421866.32144.6613.01 1993-06-2854.51 6.3611.411988.22159.3212.581993-06-2955.48 6.5910.992097.82161.8413.06 1993-06-3054.44 6.4710.922055.28161.9712.79 1993-07-0153.85 6.410.892035.95165.712.38 1993-07-0253.31 6.3310.852014.56165.712.25 1993-07-0551.68 6.1410.731948.84167.1711.75 1993-07-0648.84 5.810.51833.39167.1711.06 1993-07-0749.11 5.8310.521847.89167.2711.14 1993-07-0848.67 5.7810.491831.64167.2711.04 1993-07-0947.73 5.6310.371813.96171.2710.68 1993-07-1246.54 5.510.231775.33172.0110.41 1993-07-1347.81 5.6510.341826.63172.0110.71 1993-07-1449.35 5.8310.51889.73172.0111.07 1993-07-1549.49 5.8410.511894.58172.0111.1 1993-07-1650.16 5.9210.571918.78172.0111.24 1993-07-1943.1 5.19.941633.54172.169.58 1993-07-2041.41 4.99.811568.54172.169.2 1993-07-2141.52 4.919.821573.74172.169.23 1993-07-2241.78 4.949.841584.66172.169.29 1993-07-2341.61 4.929.831578.22172.169.25 1993-07-2640.1 4.799.611538.94173.868.94 1993-07-2740.19 4.89.611543.35173.868.97 1993-07-2840.73 4.849.571582.71176.59.06 1993-07-2941.19 4.899.61602.02177.339.12 1993-07-3044.48 5.299.851741.5177.339.91 1993-08-0242.4 5.049.681653.77177.939.38 1993-08-0341.97 4.999.651633.84177.939.27 1993-08-0442.75 5.089.711665.62177.939.45 1993-08-0542.73 5.089.71664.99177.939.45 1993-08-0642.97 5.119.721673.03177.939.5 1993-08-0944.3 5.279.821724.81178.439.76 1993-08-1043.34 5.159.751682.21178.439.53 1993-08-1144.65 5.39.861728.27178.439.79 1993-08-1246.54 5.5310.021791.44178.4310.15 1993-08-1347.96 5.710.131845.77178.4310.46 1993-08-1651.44 6.1110.411994.34178.8911.26 1993-08-1749.12 5.8410.211894.25178.8910.71 1993-08-1847.93 5.6910.121843.84178.8910.42 1993-08-1948.86 5.810.181885.76178.8910.66 1993-08-2047.8 5.6810.091842.64178.8910.41 1993-08-2345.18 5.369.851733.86179.689.76 1993-08-2445.23 5.379.851735.48179.689.77 1993-08-2546.07 5.479.921771.49179.689.97 1993-08-2645.69 5.429.891756.44179.689.89 1993-08-2746.83 5.659.031864.93188.689.99 1993-08-3046.97 5.669.031869.22188.6810.02 1993-08-3146.81 5.649.021859.93188.689.97 1993-09-0146.89 5.659.031854.74188.689.95 1993-09-0247.23 5.699.051870.1188.6810.03 1993-09-0348.21 5.819.131916.66188.6810.27 1993-09-0649.32 5.959.221965.69188.6810.53 1993-09-0747.53 5.739.071884.57188.6810.11 1993-09-0847.52 5.739.071883.24188.6810.1 1993-09-0947.05 5.689.041866.11188.6810.01 1993-09-1047.11 5.699.041870.54188.6810.03 1993-09-1345.83 5.538.931818.41899.73。
中国上证指数历史平均市盈率一览表
纵观上证指数走势和平均市盈率的关系发现,上证指数可以看成是螺旋式上涨的过程,而平均市盈率则是在固定区间震荡的过程。
这里运用一下网友的数据说明一下:
中国上证指数历史平均市盈率一览表:
沪市大盘市场平均市盈率----沪市上市公司平均股价----后市大势分析
1994.1.20沪市大盘平均市盈率35.28倍---大盘见所谓777"铁底"---后照样无情跌穿
1994.7.29沪市大盘平均市盈率10.65倍----大盘见历史大底325点---大熊市结束
1994.9.13沪市大盘平均市盈率33.56倍---大盘见阶段顶1052点
1995.2.7沪市大盘平均市盈率18.97倍---大盘见阶段顶926点
1996.1.19沪市大盘平均市盈率19.44倍---大盘见历史大底512点---大牛市开始
1996.12.11平均市盈率47.89倍---大盘见短期阶段顶1258点
1996.12.25平均市盈率33.62倍---大盘见历史大底855点
1997.5.12平均市盈率59.64倍----大盘见阶段大顶1510点---大熊市开始1997.7.8平均市盈率38.17倍---大盘见阶段大底1025点
1998.6.4平均市盈率46.27倍---大盘见阶段顶1422点
1998.8.18平均市盈率38.83倍----大盘见阶段大底1043点
1998.11.17平均市盈率47.04倍---大盘见阶段顶1300点
1999.5.17平均市盈率38.09倍----大盘见阶段大底1047点---5.19行情爆发---大牛市开始
1999.6.30平均市盈率63.08倍---大盘见中级调整顶1756点
1999.12.27平均市盈率48.75倍---大盘见大底1341点---2.14行情1爆发---大牛市开始
2000.2.17平均市盈率58.42倍----大盘见1770创出1756历史新高
2000.8.22平均市盈率63,73倍----大盘见2114阶段短期的顶
2000,9.25平均市盈率57.37倍----大盘见阶段低点1874点
2001.1.11平均市盈率63.01倍----大盘见阶段高点2131.98点
2001.2.22平均市盈率56.83倍----大盘见阶段低点1893点
2001.6.14平均市盈率66.16倍----大盘见历史大顶2245点---大牛市结束---大熊市开始
2002.1.29平均市盈率40.68倍---大盘见阶段低点1339点
2002.6.25平均市盈率76.7倍----大盘见阶段高点1748点
2003.1.6平均市盈率42.18倍----大盘见阶段低点1311点
2003.4.16平均市盈率36.14倍----大盘见阶段高点1649点
2003.11.13平均市盈率39.91倍----大盘见阶段底1307点
2004.4.7平均市盈率38.81倍----大盘见阶段中级顶顶1783点
2005.6.6平均市盈率15.42倍----大盘见历史大底998点----大牛市开始---大熊市结束
2006.7.5平均市盈率23.31倍----大盘位于1757点
2007.2.27平均市盈率35.25倍---大盘位于3049点
2007.5.29平均市盈率36.4倍----大盘见阶段高点4335点
2007.6.5平均市盈率31.1倍---大盘阶段性大底3404点
2007.10.16沪市大盘平均市盈率47.04倍----大盘位于6124点
2007.11.6沪市大盘平均市盈率44.53倍---大盘位于5536点
——这是转载子网上的,数据没有考证!点位和平均股价是没有参考意义的!只有估值才是最为重要的参考之一!
——2008年10月份上证指数市盈率达到了12倍左右。
除了1994年,历史第二低!这个原因可能就是全流通时代,大盘估值中枢的下移!
——由以上的历史数据可以看出,历史上A股的估值中枢应该在30-40倍之间!市场最高可冲至60至70倍的市盈率!。