经济学人杂志一些图表文章

《经济学人》：9张图看懂2013年全球经济回顾2013年，全球经济经历了不少大事件，但总体而言，世界经济向着更好的方向在发展，尽管这种复苏仍然稍显缓慢。

在2014即将到来的时候，通过9张图表，总结了这一年最重要的变化。

1，全球主要股指纷纷上扬。

下图四条曲线分别为：日经指数、道琼斯工业平均指数、欧洲Stoxx50指数以及富时100指数。

2，为充分利用超低利率的有利条件，2013年全球企业的发债规模有可能创造历史记录。

图片中深蓝色为美国企业的发债量，宝蓝色为世界其他国家的企业发债总量。

3，随着经济重回增长以及债务赤字的下降，市场对发达国家债务危机进一步深化的担忧减弱。

下图五条曲线中，左起从上至下分别为代表希腊、英国、法国、日本和美国的预算赤字与GDP的比率。

4，尽管经济向好，但大多数发达国家的GDP与危机前差不了多少，尤其是在与中国对比的时候。

下图为这6年来中国、美国、日本和欧元区GDP的变化情况。

5，在就业方面，大多数发达国家中已就业的劳动年龄人口所占的比重仍然低于峰值。

下图的红点代表为德国、英国、美国、爱尔兰、西班牙和希腊今年二季度的就业率，蓝点代表各国在2007-2008年的峰值水平。

6，世界各国银行业监管趋严，这使得银行要为金融危机期间的不当行为付出越来越高的代价。

下图为银行支付的与美国抵押贷款活动相关的罚金数额增长情况，单位为百亿美元。

7，这些银行必须符合更加严厉的监管规则，达到更严苛的资本要求。

因此，银行只能以削减信贷来应对监管。

下图为美国、英国和欧元区小企业的贷款数量与GDP的占比。

8，2013年全世界的央行几乎都在实行极度宽松的货币政策。

美联储和日本央行继续印钱然后大规模购债，希望能够拉低长期利率，同时维持短期利率处于零附近。

下图是日本、英国和美国的央行资产与GDP的占比。

9，当美联储在今年五月提到缩减QE的时候，伯南克的一句话引发了新兴市场货币的“大溃败”，投资者纷纷抽出资金寻求发达经济体更高的收益率。

荫译：皖东（新浪财经）《经济学人》封面文章：未来的希望投资最忌好高骛远、盲从热潮和短视近利。

———雪拜·戴维斯[美国]WISDOM ·VIEW ·外刊速览·责任编辑:赵迪E-mail:*****************第15期本期《经济学人》封面文章认为世上最大经济体美国已开始了亟需的经济转型。

奥巴马总统在这方面应能有更多作为。

经历了自上世纪30年代以来最严重衰退的美国经济，在去年收缩2.4%以后预计今年可增长3%。

分析师们还预测，美国就业形势最终在今年会改善。

与步入衰退时情形完全不同的是，高失业率、大量丧失抵押房屋赎回权和公共财政的巨大窟窿是走出衰退时仍存在的显著危险。

而消费、住房和负债与出口的关系，投资与储蓄的关系则构成经济中的隐形危险。

未来许多不确定性不仅要靠华府政治人物，而且还有赖于美国之外的政治家。

美国数十年来的增长一直依靠着消费者大量借款进行开支的意愿，资产价格泡沫支撑着虚假安逸。

住房价格崩溃掏空了消费者的财富，让他们现变得更节俭，并更少借款。

靠着消费文化发达起来的众多企业巨头正重新思考增长方式，同时也在收缩自己的借贷规模。

美国住房开发商现在开发的产品是规模更小、形式更简单的产品。

衰退让美国摒弃了贪大求全，追求奢靡的风潮。

诚然，代价更高的稀缺资金是一个原因，而能源不再像以往那般廉价也是影响未来的重要因素。

更多普通消费者选择节能车型，而开采深藏美国地下的石油已是利润丰厚的追求。

若照此趋势发展下去，美国2025年的石油进口可能不到5年前的一半。

随着国内消费者勒紧腰带，美国企业必会向海外出口更多商品。

有竞争力的美元和现有传统市场增长，会让已处在领先地位的象高附加值加工类的美国行业表现不俗。

这会带来更平衡的美国经济，同时也会让全球经济更健康。

但此转型的成功不会被认为是理所当然的。

美国内外的政策制定者们将决定调整究竟是以痛苦或轻松方式进行。

若美国人节俭换来世上其他一些大国的相反做法，世界会因此繁荣。

《经济学人》2021年3月27日刊精彩文章导读原计划每天发推文一篇，说明自己在读词典。

BUT，实践证明：说得容易做着难。

要坚持下来，真不容易。

这周还真有些事情。

我们每年3月份调薪。

在职场的朋友应该知道，这个月是最不稳定的时候：1、聪明一点的员工开始抓住机会找领导各种诉苦，申请工资能多涨点。

2、有些员工根据表现知道自己涨幅不高，开始找工作跳槽。

3、还有一部分员工蠢蠢欲动，等发了工资，掂量是否达到预期，再决定是走还是留。

我们公司通常离职率在25%左右，在软件行业属于比较正常的水平。

我所负责的开发部门，大约有一百多人，要想一个都不走，也很难，但自己不希望有大的波动。

这段时间经常晚上接到电话。

如果是普通员工打过来，99%不是好事情。

讨论主题只有两个：“生活不易，申请涨薪”或者“干得不爽，坚决离职”。

心累。

也就没有了写文的心情。

还好，这一波离职潮基本结束。

团队总体尚好，核心人员和骨干基本挽留了下来。

这周微信里有些朋友问我，看《经济学人》有什么好处？你痴迷这本杂志为了什么？有中文翻译吗？你通常3-4点钟起床，干什么？这些问题比较典型。

做个集中答复吧。

看《经济学人》有什么好处？如果带着功利心来讲，短期看不到任何好处。

要考研的话，不如看教辅资料；想跳槽外企的话，不如参与专业的口语和听力培训。

我看《经济学人》纯属爱好。

以我目前实力，我看不出杂志中的遣词造句，欣赏不出英语句子的美感，更别指望能用英文写作。

已到而立之年，做一件事，更多是站在实用性考虑。

那么，我看《经济学人》，主要是为了吸收不同的想法和观点。

现在这个社会，最稀缺的能力是独立思考。

咱们看众多自媒体，为了吸引读者的眼球，不断制造新闻，挑起对立情绪。

在这个流量为王的时代，自己很容易被带节奏，成为其中的韭菜或帮凶。

比如，前段时间，有则新闻说手术医生累了喝了一瓶葡萄糖输液，然后有人发帖质疑，医生喝的输液费用算到了患者账单上。

而后不少自媒体难得抓取这个兴趣点，开局一张图，内容全靠编，煽动医患关系。

《经济学人》2021年6月26日刊精彩文章导读我其实更喜欢它的排版风格（虽然《经济学人》称自己是一份报纸，但我看它更像本杂志）。

版面清爽。

你可能认为刊物都是这样的呀。

那你可能就误解了。

咱们看看其它知名刊物的风格，绚丽奔放。

比如，《商业周刊》又如，《纽约客》再如，《卫报周刊》当然，这可能与人爱好有关。

大家找到喜欢的杂志，阅读即可。

博百家之长。

可能有朋友担心我们看批评的文章太多，会走极端。

我认为不会呀。

通过阅读别人的批评，我们可以发现自己的不足，但并不表示我们会反对现行体制。

我们只会希望我们能够更加繁荣强大。

还有一个最最常见的问题：想学英语没时间怎么办？那你可以看看这位大牛刘未鹏（《暗时间》的作者）学英语方法。

我已实践，可行性高，效果不错。

分享之。

我们可以把英语学习的过程夹杂在你"反正"要做的事情里面。

反正要看电影，不如看英文的。

反正要看技术书籍，不如看原版的。

反正要看书籍，不如看原版的。

反正要问问题，不如去国外论坛上问。

反正要查资料，不如查原始出处（往往又是英文的）。

反正要表达，不如试试用英文表达。

反正要唱歌，不如听听、学学英文歌。

简单可行。

我一直都这么干。

我本科的时候英语学校考试不及格过，直到大四才重修，因为要我坐下来背单词短语实在是太痛苦，太痛苦了，跟背历史的痛苦程度有得一拼。

后来看了本原版书，因为对书的内容极其感兴趣，所以对英文的不适感被很大地降低了，看完了之后，我就发现这种方法实在太节省时间了。

几年下来原版书读了N多本，基本上阅读英文资料和中文资料一样快了。

也许对程序员兄弟来说更重要的是这个习惯有利于掌握一手资料，因为技术一手资料一般都来自英文社区，还有很多好书（不仅是技术书）都是只有英文版的，因为语言介质原因失之交臂是很可惜的。

这个方法的优点在于分摊时间复杂度。

弱点在于需要持之以恒的积累（但每天所需时间很少），肉眼几乎看不出提高的，因此时间长，见效慢。

但积累之后效果是相当稳定的，是内功。

1、绝对优势（Absolute advantage）如果一个国家用一单位资源生产的某种产品比另一个国家多，那么，这个国家在这种产品的生产上与另一国相比就具有绝对优势。

2、逆向选择（Adverse choice）在此状况下，保险公司发现它们的客户中有太大的一部分来自高风险群体。

3、选择成本（Alternative cost）如果以最好的另一种方式使用的某种资源，它所能生产的价值就是选择成本，也可以称之为机会成本。

4、需求的弧弹性（Arc elasticity of demand）如果P1和Q1分别是价格和需求量的初始值，P2 和Q2 为第二组值，那么，弧弹性就等于-（Q1-Q2）（P1＋P2）/（P1-P2）（Q1＋Q2）5、非对称的信息（Asymmetric information）在某些市场中，每个参与者拥有的信息并不相同。

例如，在旧车市场上，有关旧车质量的信息，卖者通常要比潜在的买者知道得多。

6、平均成本（Average cost）平均成本是总成本除以产量。

也称为平均总成本。

7、平均固定成本( Average fixed cost）平均固定成本是总固定成本除以产量。

8、平均产品（Average product）平均产品是总产量除以投入品的数量。

9、平均可变成本（Average variable cost）平均可变成本是总可变成本除以产量。

10、投资的β(Beta）β度量的是与投资相联的不可分散的风险。

对于一种股票而言，它表示所有现行股票的收益发生变化时，一种股票的收益会如何敏感地变化。

11、债券收益(Bond yield）债券收益是债券所获得的利率。

12、收支平衡图（Break－even chart）收支平衡图表示一种产品所出售的总数量改变时总收益和总成本是如何变化的。

收支平衡点是为避免损失而必须卖出的最小数量。

13、预算线(Budget line）预算线表示消费者所能购买的商品X和商品Y的数量的全部组合。

Beefed-up burgernomics调整后的汉堡经济学A gourmet version of the Big Mac index suggests that the yuan is not that undervalued该井的巨无霸指数表明人民币并未如想象的那样被低估THE Big Mac index celebrates its 25th birthday this year. Invented by The Economist in 1986 as a lighthearted guide to whether currencies are at their “correct” level, it was never intended as a precise gauge of currency misalignment, merely a tool to make exchange-rate theory more digestible. Yet the Big Mac index has become a global standard, included in several economic textbooks and the subject of at least 20 academic studies. American politicians have even cited the index in their demands for a big appreciation of the Chinese yuan. With so many people taking the hamburger standard so seriously, it may be time to beef it up.今年巨无霸指数将迎来它的第25个年头。

这一指标由经济学人杂志在1986年确立并且成为衡量一国货币是否处于正常水平的轻松指标，人们从未计划将其视作货币偏离其价值的精确估计，它只是使汇率更加容易理解的工具。

荫译：皖东（新浪财经）《经济学人》封面文章：德国还需结构性改革任何靠市场方向来决定获利的投资方式，都注定只能表现平平。

———麦克·劳尔[美国]·外刊速览·WISDOM ·VIEW责任编辑:赵迪E-mail:*****************第12期本期《经济学人》封面文章认为，德国需要改革的原因不只是为自身，而且也为他人。

世界各地通常将欧洲视为经济僵化的大陆，依赖福利的民众不愿工作太多，其工业基础陈旧和能力持续下降。

相应机制让欧洲前景暗淡。

正如本刊本期特别报告所显示的那样，欧洲最大经济体，德国的成功却反应了完全不同的事实。

德国10年前还是位病夫，一直受到缓慢增长和高失业率的拖累，加工业在绝望中外迁寻找低成本之地。

但德国尽管现在也身处衰退，但其失业率仍低于5年前。

德国的出口近期虽让位于世界最大出口国中国，但其出口实力仍毫发无损。

德国今年经常项下盈余占GDP 比重也超过中国。

然而，欧洲其他各国对德国这个欧洲地理和政治中心的强劲经济有着许多要说。

德国的成功确实给邻国造成了许多麻烦，这也是双方需认真面对的问题。

德国令人印象深刻的灵活性是传统和新型优点结合的结果。

传统上以多数意见主导的管理体系有助于让工会在企业成本需要下调时进行合作。

同时，经济政策也转向新式和自由化方向。

施罗德政府2003-2004年间引入了对劳动力市场和福利体系的改革。

因受这些因素刺激和欧洲单一货币体系的竞争压力，德国工商业毫不手软地将实际工资水平压下来。

德国2000-08年间的单位劳动成本年均下降1.4%，而美国仅为0.7%，法英两国确分别上涨0.8%和0.9%。

德国去年虽也遭到衰退沉重打击，但经济仍远好于10年前的形势。

这是法国和南欧各国根本无法相比的。

德国对其控制成本和保持出口的能力感到自豪。

但它应意识到其成功部份是以牺牲邻国利益为代价的。

德国人更愿意相信他们10年因放弃所热爱的马克而做出了巨大牺牲，但他们从欧元上的获益实际上超出任何人。

投资最忌好高骛远、盲从热潮和短视近利。

———雪拜·戴维斯[美国]WISDOM ·VIEW ·外刊速览·责任编辑:赵迪E-mail:*****************《经济学人》封面文章：艰难的未来第04期本期《经济学人》封面文章认为，奥巴马在执政的头年内表现良好，但不突出，而且未来事物将变得更难处理。

奥巴马在1年前的总统宣誓就职演说中，在回顾独立战争的黑暗日子时，像华盛顿当年那样做出了保证：面对共同敌人的美国人，在他的领导下将挺身而出勇敢迎接挑战。

人们1年后关心的是他竟做的怎样。

实事求是地说，奥巴马做的不算差。

他在任职的前12个月内成功地稳住了经济；将可承受的，每个美国人几乎都能享受到的医保改革推到了快要成功的边缘；结束了虐囚；恰当地指挥了阿富汗战争，而又同时逐步脱离伊拉克。

然而，可能更显重要是，他清除了大部分布什政府给全世界留下的对美国憎恨和恐慌。

更重要的是奥巴马在运行着一届有胜任能力、自我约束而又能包容不同思想的政府，同时未出现克林顿政府执政头年的混乱局面。

他不仅拒绝了向民主党内民粹主义势力让步的诱惑，而且还以监管手段迫使华尔街循规蹈矩。

他避开了对企业家的惩罚性征税。

他甚至对高调的保护主义的呼声装聋。

奥巴马常处于争论中心之外。

他急于让人们喜欢自己和做受民众欢迎之事，将困难留在后面。

远不说能够实践自己在就职典礼上的诺言，他尚未表现出强硬一面。

奥巴马在国内的危险的缺乏自信，解释了似乎现在有可能通过的医保改革议案为何仍是让人感到的巨大失望。

改革虽能给上千万无医保的美国人，以及众多失业后恐丧失医保的人提供医保。

但此举代价高昂，它只能在控制成本方向上采取渐进式步骤。

一直在上扬的医保开支会以破产方式威胁到整个联邦政府。

所以，历经数代人进行的综合性医疗改革对解决当前问题作用甚微。

奥巴马未能采纳自己党派中的挥霍者的意见会为自己的政治生涯付出代价。

对他的评价开始下降，今年11月的中期选举，他看起来至少有可能丧失在参议院的绝对多数地位。

Digest Of The. Economist. 2006(8-9)The mismeasure of womanMen and women think differently. But not that differentlyIN THE 1970s there was a fad for giving dolls to baby boys and fire-engines to baby girls. The idea was that differences in behaviour between the sexes were solely the result of upbringing: culture turned women into ironers, knitters and chatterboxes, and men into hammerers, drillers and silent types. Switching toys would put an end to sexual sorting. Today, it is clear why it did not. When boys and girls are born, they are already different, and they favour different toys from the beginning.That boys and girls—and men and women—are programmed by evolution to behave differently from one another is now widely accepted. Surely, no one today would think of doing what John Money, of Johns Hopkins University, did in 1967: amputating the genitalia of a boy who had suffered a botched circumcision, and advising the parents to bring him up as a girl. The experiment didn't work, and the consequences were tragic. But which of the differences between the sexes are “biological”, in the sense that they have been honed by evolution, and which are “cultural” or “environmental” and might more easily be altered by changed circumstances, is still fiercely debated.The sensitivity of the question was shown last year by a furore at Harvard University. Larry Summers, then Harvard's president, caused a storm when he suggested that innate ability could be an important reason why there were so few women in the top positions in mathematics, engineering and the physical sciences.Even as a proposition for discussion, this is unacceptable to some. But biological explanations of human behaviour are making a comeback as the generation of academics that feared them as a covert way of justifying eugenics, or of thwarting Marxist utopianism, is retiring. The success of neo-Darwinism has provided an intellectual underpinning for discussion about why some differences between the sexes might be innate. And new scanning techniques have enabled researchers to examine the brain's interior while it is working, showing that male and female brains do, at one level, operate differently. The results, however, do not always support past clichés about what the differences in question actually are.Differences in behaviour between the sexes must, in some way, be reflections of systematic differences between the brains of males and females. Such differences certainly exist, but drawing inferences from them is not as easy as it may appear.For a start, men's brains are about 9% larger than those of women. That used to be cited as evidence of men's supposedly greater intelligence. Actually, the difference is largely (and probably completely) explained by the fact that men are bigger than women. In recent years, more detailed examination has refined the picture. Female brains have a higher percentage of grey matter (the manifestation, en bloc, of the central bodies of nerve cells), and thus a lower percentage of white matter (the manifestation of the long, thin filaments that connect nerve cells together), than male brains. That, plus the fact that in some regions of the female brain, nerve cells are packed more densely than in men, means that the number of nerve cells in male and female brains maybe similar.Oddly, though, the main connection between the two hemispheres of the brain, which is known as the corpus callosum and is made of white matter, is proportionately smaller in men than women. This may explain why men use only one side of the brain to process some problems for which women employ both sides.These differences in structure and wiring do not appear to have any influence on intelligence as measured by IQ tests. It does, however, seem that the sexes carry out these tests in different ways. In one example, where men and women perform equally well in a test that asks them to work out whether nonsense words rhyme, brain scanning shows that women use areas on both the right and the left sides of the brain to accomplish the task. Men, by contrast, use only areas on the left side. There is also a correlation between mathematical reasoning and temporal-lobe activity in men—but none in women. More generally, men seem to rely more on their grey matter for their IQ, whereas women rely more on their white matter.American exceptionalismThe world's biggest insurance market is too splinteredKANSAS CITY, Missouri, is known more for its historical role as a cattle town than as a financial hub. But it is to this midwestern city, America's 26th largest, that regulators and insurance executives from around the globe head when they want to make sense of the world's largest—and one of its weirdest—insurance markets.For it is in Kansas City that the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) is housed. It oversees a market accounting for one-third of premiums written worldwide. Outside Kansas City, the market becomes a regulatory free-for-all. Each of America's 50 states, plus the District of Colombia, governs its insurance industry in its own way.In an increasingly global insurance market, America's state-based system is coming under strong pressure to reform. Insurance has changed dramatically since the NAIC was set up in 1871, with growing sophistication in underwriting and risk management. Premiums in America have ballooned to $1.1 trillion and market power is increasingly concentrated in the hands of big players (some of them foreign-owned) that are pushing for an overhaul of the state-based system. “It's an extremely expensive and Byzantine process,” says Bob Hartwig, an economist with the Insurance Information Institute, a research group.Though a fiercely political issue, congressional support for simplifying the system is gaining ground. Both houses of Congress are looking at proposals to change the state-based system. Big insurers favour a version that would implement an optional federal charter allowing them to bypass the state-bystate regulatory process if they choose. A similar system already exists for banks.Proponents of the changes see more efficiency, an ability to roll out products more quickly nationally and, ultimately, better offerings for consumers as a result. Yet some consumer groups favour state-based regulation. They believe it keeps premiums lower than they otherwise would be. Premiums as a percentage of gross output are lower in America than in several other countries.The political headwinds are strong: insurance commissioners are elected officials in some states (California, for instance) and appointed by the governor in others. The industry is also split: most of the country's 4,500 insurers are small, and many of them have close ties with state-based regulators, whose survival they support. But even these forces may eventually be overcome.Elsewhere in the industry in America, there are other calls for reform. In a backdoor form of protectionism, American reinsurance firms have long benefited from a regulation that requires foreign reinsurers writing cross-border business into America to post more collateral than they do. “If you operate outside the borders of the US, they don't trust you one inch,” laments Julian James, head of international business at Lloyd's of London, which writes 38% of its business in America.The collateral requirement was established because of worries about regulatory standards abroad, and the financial strength of global reinsurers. Today regulatory standards have been tightened in many foreign markets. A majority of America's reinsurance cover now comes from firms based abroad, including many that have set up offshore in Bermuda (for tax reasons) primarily to serve America.Too hot to handleDell's battery recall reveals the technology industry's vulnerabilitiesTHERE is the nail test, in which a team of engineers drives a large metal nail through a battery cell to see if it explodes. In another trial, laboratory technicians bake the batteries in an oven to simulate the effects of a digital device left in a closed car on a sweltering day—to check the reaction of the chemicals inside. On production runs, random batches of batteries are tested for temperature, efficiency, energy density and output.But the rigorous processes that go into making sophisticated, rechargeable batteries—the heart of billions of electronic gadgets around the world—were not enough. On August 14th Dell, a computer company, said it would replace 4.1m lithium-ion batteries made by Sony, a consumer-electronics firm, in laptop computers sold between 2004 and last month. A handful of customers had reported the batteries overheating, catching fire and even exploding—including one celebrated case at a conference this year in Japan, which was captured on film and passed around the internet. The cost to the two companies is expected to be between $200m and $400m.In some ways, Dell is a victim of its success. The company was a pioneer in turning the personal computer into a commodity, which meant squeezing suppliers to the last penny, using economies of scale by placing huge orders, and running efficient supply chains with little room for error. It all created a volatile environment in which mistakes can have grave effects.Since lithium-ion batteries were introduced in 1991, their capacity to overheat and burst into flame has been well known. Indeed, in 2004 America banned them as cargo on passenger planes, as a fire hazard. But the latest problems seem to have arisen because of the manufacturing process, which demands perfection. “If there is even a nano-sized particle of dust, a small metal shard or water condensation that gets into the battery cell, it can overheat and explode,” says Sara Bradford of Frost & Sullivan, a consultancy. As the energy needs of devices have grown rapidly, so have the demands on batteries.The computing industry's culture is also partly to blame. Firms have long tried to ship products as fast as they possibly can, and they may have set less store by quality. They used to mock the telecoms industry's ethos of “five-nines”—99.999% reliability—because it meant long product cycles. But now they are gradually accepting it as a benchmark. That is partly why Microsoft has taken so long to perfect its new operating system, Windows Vista.Compared with other product crises, from contaminated Coca-Cola in 1999 to Firestone's faulty tyres in 2000, Dell can be complimented for quickly taking charge of a hot situation. The firm says there were only six incidents of laptops overheating in America since December 2005—but the internet created a conflagration.Keeping the faithMixing religion and development raises soul-searching questionsWORLD Bank projects are usually free of words like “faith” and “soul.” Most of its missions speak the jargon of development: poverty reduction, aggregate growth and structural adjustments. But a small unit within the bank has been currying favour with religious groups, working to ease their suspicions and use their influence to further the bank's goals. In many developing countries, such groups have the best access to the people the bank is trying to help. The programme has existed for eight years, but this brainchild of the bank's previous president, James Wolfensohn, has spent the past year largely in limbo as his successor, Paul Wolfowitz, decides its future. Now, some religious leaders in the developing world are worried that the progress they have made with the bank may stall.That progress has not always been easy. The programme, named the Development Dialogue on Values and Ethics, faced controversy from the start. Just as religious groups have struggled to work with the bank, many people on the inside doubted if the bank should be delving into the divine. Critics argued that religion could be divisive and political. Some said religion clashes with the secular goals of modernisation.Although the bank does not lend directly to religious groups, it works with them to provide health, educational and other benefits, and receives direct input from those on the ground in poor countries. Katherine Marshall, director of the bank's faith unit, argues that such groups are in an ideal position to educate people, move resources and keep an eye on corruption. They are organised distribution systems in otherwise chaotic places. The programme has had success getting evangelical groups to fight malaria in Mozambique, improve microcredit and water distribution in India, and educate people about AIDS in Africa. “We started from very different viewpoints. The World Bank is looking at the survival of a country, we look at the survival of a patient,” says Leonardo Palombi, of the Community of Sant'Egidio, an Italian church group that works in Africa.Although the work continues, those involved in Mr Wolfensohn's former pet project now fret over its future. Some expect the faith unit to be transferred to an independent organisation also set up by Mr Wolfensohn, the World Faiths Development Dialogue, which will still maintain a link with the bank. Religious groups are hoping their voices will still be heard. “If we are going to make progress, faith institutions need to be involved. We believe religion has the ability to bring stability. It will be important for the bank to follow through,” says Agnes Abuom, of the World Council of Churches for Africa, based in Kenya.Like religious groups, large institutions such as the bank can resist change. Economists and development experts are sometimes slow to believe in new ideas. One positive by-product of the initiative is that religious groups once wary of the bank's intentions are less suspicious. Ultimately, as long as both economists and evangelists aim to help the poor attain a better life on earth, differences in opinion about the life hereafter do not matter much.Stand and deliverFor the first time since the epidemic began, money to fight AIDS is in plentiful supply. It isnow time to convert words into actionKEVIN DE COCK, the World Health Organisation's AIDS supremo, is not a man to mince his words. He reckons that he and his colleagues in the global AIDS establishment have between five and seven years to make a real dent in the problem. If they fail, the world's attention span will be exhausted, charitable donors and governments will turn to other matters and AIDS will be relegated in the public consciousness to being yet another intractable problem of the poor world about which little or nothing can be done.For now, though, the money is flowing. About $8.9 billion is expected to be available this year. And, regardless of Dr De Cock's long-term worries, that sum should rise over the next few years. Not surprisingly, a lot of people are eager to spend it.Many of those people—some 24,000 of them—have been meeting in Toronto at the 16th International AIDS Conference. An AIDS conference is unlike any other scientific meeting. In part, it is a jamboree in which people try to out-do each other in displays of cultural inclusiveness: the music of six continents resonates around the convention centre. In part, it is a lightning conductor that allows AIDS activists to make their discontent known to the world in a series of semi-official protests. It is also what other scientific meetings are, a forum for the presentation of papers with titles such as “Differing lymphocyte cytokine responses in HIV and Leishmania co-infection”. But mostly, it is a giant council of war. And at this one, the generals are trying to impose a complete change of military strategy.When AIDS was discovered, there was no treatment. Existing anti-viral drugs were tried but at best they delayed the inevitable, and at worst they failed completely. Prevention, then, was not merely better than cure, it was the only thing to talk about. Condoms were distributed. Posters were posted exhorting the advantages of safe sex. Television adverts were run that showed theconsequences of carelessness.Ten years ago, though, a new class of drugs known as protease inhibitors was developed. In combination with some of the older drugs, they produced what is now known as highly active anti-retroviral therapy or HAART. In most cases, HAART can prolong life indefinitely.That completely changed the picture. Once the AIDS activists had treated themselves, they began to lobby for the poor world to be treated, too. And, with much foot-dragging, that is now happening. About 1.6m people in low- and middle-income countries, 1m of them in sub-Saharan Africa, are now receiving anti-AIDS drugs routinely. The intention, announced at last year's G8 meeting in Scotland, is that the drugs should be available by 2010 to all who would benefit from them.However, those on drugs remain infected and require treatment indefinitely. To stop the epidemic requires a re-emphasis of prevention, and it is that which the organisers have been trying to do.Man, deconstructedThe DNA that may have driven the evolution of the human brainONE of the benefits of knowing the complete genetic sequences of humans and other animals is that it becomes possible to compare these blueprints. You can then work out what separates man from beast—genetically speaking, at least.The human brain sets man apart. About 2m years ago it began to grow in size, and today it is about three times larger than that of chimpanzees, man's closest relative. Human intelligence and behavioural complexity have far outstripped those of its simian cousins, so the human brain seems to have got more complex, as well as bigger. Yet no study has pinpointed the genetic changes that cause these differences between man and chimp.Now a group of scientists believe they have located some interesting stretches of DNA that may have been crucial in the evolution of the human brain. A team led by David Haussler of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute in California, compared the human genome with that of mammals including other primates. They reported the results in Nature.The researchers looked at the non-human genomes first, seeking regions that had not changed much throughout evolutionary history. Regions that are untouched by normal random changes typically are important ones, and thus are conserved by evolution. Next the researchers found the equivalent regions in the human genome to see if any were very different between humans and chimps. Such a sudden change is a hallmark of a functional evolutionary shift.They found 49 regions they dubbed “human accelerated regions” (HARs) that have shown a rapid, recent evolution. Most of these regions are not genes as commonly understood. This is because they code for something other than the proteins that are expressed in human cells and that regulate biological processes. A number of the HARs are portions of DNA that are responsible for turning genes on and off.Intriguingly, the most rapidly changing region was HAR1, which has accumulated 18 genetic changes when only one would be expected to occur by chance. It codes for a bit of RNA (a molecule that usually acts as a template for translating DNA into protein) that, it is speculated, has some direct function in neuronal development.HAR1 is expressed before birth in the developing neocortex—the outer layer of the brain that seems to be involved in higher functions such as language, conscious thought and sensory perception. HAR1 is expressed in cells that are thought to have a vital role in directing migrating nerve cells in the developing brain. This happens at seven to 19 weeks of gestation, a crucial time when many of the nerve cells are establishing their functions.Without more research, the function of HAR1 remains mere speculation. But an intriguing facet of this work is that, until now, most researchers had focused their hunt for differences on the protein-coding stretches of the genome. That such a discovery has been made in what was regarded as the less interesting parts of the human genome is a presage of where exciting genomic finds may lie in the future.Keeping it realHow to make digital photography more trustworthyPHOTOGRAPHY often blurs the distinction between art and reality. Modern technology has made that blurring easier. In the digital darkroom photographers can manipulate images and threaten the integrity of endeavours that rely on them. Several journalists have been fired for such activity in recent months, including one from Reuters for faking pictures in Lebanon. Earlier this year, the investigation into Hwang Woo-suk showed the South Korean scientist had changed images purporting to show cloning. In an effort to reel in photography, camera-makers are making it more obvious when images have been altered.One way of doing this is to use image-authentication systems to reveal if someone has tampered with a picture. These usecomputer programs to generate a code from the very data that comprise the image. As the picture is captured, the code is attached to it. When the image is viewed, software determines the code for the image and compares it with the attached code. If the image has been altered, the codes will not match, revealing the doctoring.Another way favoured by manufacturers is to take a piece of data from the image and assign it a secret code. Once the image file is transferred to a computer, it is given the same code, which will change if it is edited. The codes will match if the image is authentic but will be inconsistent if tampering occurred.The algorithm is the weapon of choice for Hany Farid, a computer scientist at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire. Digital images have natural statistical patterns in the intensity and texture of their pixels. These patterns change when the picture is manipulated. Dr Farid's algorithms detect these changes, and can tell if pixels have been duplicated or removed. They also try to detect if noise—the overexposed pixels within the image that create a grainy effect—was present at the time the photograph was taken or has been added later.However, forgers have become adept at printing and rescanning images, thus creating a new original. In such cases, analysing how three-dimensional elements interact is key. Long shadows at midday are a giveaway. Even the tiny reflections in the centre of a person's pupil tell you about the surrounding light source. So Dr Farid analyses shadows and lighting to see if subjects and surroundings are consistent.For its part, Adobe, the maker of Photoshop software, has improved its ability to record the changes made to an image by logging how and when each tool or filter was used. Photoshop was the program used by the journalist fired by Reuters; his handiwork left a pattern in the smoke he had added that was spotted by bloggers. Thus far the internet has proven an effective check on digital forgery. Although it allows potentially fake images to be disseminated widely, it also casts many more critical eyes upon them. Sometimes the best scrutiny is simply more people looking.Collateral damageWhy the war in Iraq is surprisingly bad news for America's defence firmsWHEN Boeing announced on August 18th that it planned to shut down production of the C-17, a huge military cargo plane, the news sent a shiver through the American defence industry. As it winds down its production line at Long Beach, California, over the next two years, Boeing will soon begin to notify suppliers that their services will no longer be needed. It had to call a halt, because orders from America's Defence Department had dried up and a trickle of export deals could not take their place. The company would not support the cost of running the production line for the C-17 (once one of its biggest-selling aircraft) on the off-chance that the Pentagon might change its mind and place further orders.The wider worry for the defence industry is that this could be the first of many big programmes to be shut down. A big part of the problem is that America is at war. The need to find an extra $100 billion a year to pay for operations in Iraq means there is pressure to make cuts in the defence budget, which has been provisionally set at $441 billion for the fiscal year beginning in October. American defence budgets involve a complicated dance starting with what the Pentagon wants, what the White House thinks it should get and, finally, what Congress allows it to get away with. Although the armed forces' extra spending on ammunition, fuel, provisions, medicines and accommodation in Iraq does not strictly come out of the same budget as new weapons, the heavy bill for fighting eventually leads to calls to save money on shiny new equipment.Earlier this month, for example, the Congressional Budget Office expressed “major concerns” about Future Combat Systems, a $165 billion project to upgrade all of the army's vehicles and communications networks. The scheme is the Pentagon's second-biggest development programme and is intended to give the soldiers on the ground access to real-time battlefield information from sources such as satellites and unmanned aircraft. But the programme was initially expected to cost about $82 billion, half the latest estimate, and critics are also worried about how well it will work and whether it will be delivered on time.Last week the army issued a glowing progress report on the project and insisted that Boeing and Science Applications International Corporation, the lead contractors, are on schedule. This was welcome news to defence contractors worried that the grandiose project might fall victim to pressure for budget cuts. Even so, the prospects for many other big weapons programmes are less rosy.The problem is not just the cost of the fighting in Iraq, but also its nature. The shift in the style of warfare, towards such “asymmetric” conflicts, means that there is now less demand for big-ticket weapons systems. Things were simpler in the cold war, when the Pentagon spent about $150 billion a year on new weapons. That fell to around $50 billion after the fall of the Berlin Wall. America's 15 main defence contractors reacted by consolidating into today's top five. When he became president, George Bush promised to increase defence spending, and he has done so: the procurement budget is back up to nearly $160 billion, despite thelack of a Soviet Union.As a result, the five main defence contractors—Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Raytheon—have had a wonderful five years. Since the terrorist attacks in September 2001, their sales have risen by around 10% a year. Last year their combined profits increased by 25% to almost $13 billion. Although most of the defence budget is spent on big weapons systems that are of little or no use in the fight against terrorists, the political climate after the attacks of September 11th 2001 made it impossible to oppose the administration's desire to increase defence spending. Besides, such spending means more jobs, often in areas where there is little other manufacturing.More media, less newsNewspapers are making progress with the internet, but most are still too timid, defensive orhigh-mindedTHE first thing to greet a visitor to the Oslo headquarters of Schibsted, a Norwegian newspaper firm, is its original, hand-operated printing press from 1856, now so clean and polished it looks more like a sculpture than a machine. Christian Schibsted, the firm's founder, bought it to print someone else's newspaper, but when the contract moved elsewhere he decided to start his own. Although Schibsted gives pride of place to its antique machinery, the company is in fact running away from its printed past as fast as it can. Having made a loss five years ago, Schibsted's activities on the internet contributed 35% of last year's operating profits.News of Schibsted's success online has spread far in the newspaper industry. Every year, says Sverre Munck, the executive vice-president of its international business, Schibsted has to turn away delegations of foreign newspaper bosses seeking to find out how the Norwegians have done it. “Otherwise we'd get several visits every month,” he says. The company has used its established newspaper brands to build websites that rank first and second in Scandinavia for visitors. It has also created new internet businesses such as Sesam, a search engine that competes with Google, and FINN.no, a portal for classified advertising. As a result, 2005 was the company's best ever for revenues and profits.Unfortunately for the newspaper industry, Schibsted is a rare exception. For most newspaper companies in the developed world, 2005 was miserable. They still earn almost all of their profits from print, which is in decline. As people look to the internet for news and young people turn away from papers, paid-for circulations are falling year after year. Papers are also losing their share of advertising spending. Classified advertising is quickly moving online. Jim Chisholm, of iMedia, a joint-venture consultancy with IFRA, a newspaper trade association, predicts that a quarter of print classified ads will be lost to digital media in the next ten years. Overall, says iMedia, newspapers claimed 36% of total global advertising in 1995 and 30% in 2005. It reckons they will lose another five percentage points by 2015.Even the most confident of newspaper bosses now agree that they will survive in the long term only if, like Schibsted, they can reinvent themselves on the internet and on other new-media platforms such as mobile phones and portable electronic devices. Most have been slow to grasp the changes affecting their industry—“remarkably, unaccountably complacent,” as Rupert Murdoch put it in a speech last year—but now they are making a big push to catch up. Internet advertising is growing rapidly for many and is beginning to offset some of the decline in print.Newspapers' complacency is perhaps not as remarkable as Mr Murdoch suggested. In many developed countries their owners have for decades enjoyed near monopolies, fat profit margins, and returns on capital above those of other industries. In the past, newspaper companies saw little need to experiment or to change and spent little or nothing on research and development.Changing connectionsFatherhood alters the structure of your brain—if you are a marmosetPARENTING has obvious effects on mothers, but fathers appear to be affected, too. A study published this week shows that fatherhood increases the nerve connections in the region of the brain that controls goal-driven behaviour—at least, it does in marmosets.Pregnancy and motherhood have long been known to bring about changes—many of them positive—to the female brain. Pregnant and nursing rats have a greater number of neural connections, particularly in the region of the brain that controls hormones and maternal behaviour. The brain changes coincide with improvements in spatial memory and speedier foraging skills, which might help a mother rat protect and feed her young.Just what effect parenting might have on the brains of fathers has remained an open question, however. Male rats sometimes eat their young rather than nurture them, which makes them a poor model for studying how fatherhood affects the brains of species that frown on infanticide. Marmoset fathers on the other hand are a model of paternal devotion. They carry their babies for more。

Our interactive overview of global house prices and rents全球房价和租价互动概貌SCARCELY has one bubble deflated when another threatens to pop. While America's housing bust—the crash that began the global financial crisis—is near an end, adjustments elsewhere are incomplete. In a few countries, like China and France, values look dangerously frothy. There is always trouble somewhere. And because buying a house usually involves taking on lots of debt, the bursting of this kind of bubble hits banks disproportionately hard. Research into financial crises in developed and emerging markets shows a consistent link between house-price cycles and banking busts.一个泡沫很少在另一个泡沫行将破灭时自行减退。

当美国房地产泡沫破裂（房地产暴跌导致全球金融危机）接近尾声之时，其他地方的一些调整措施尚在进行中。

在一些国家——如中国和法国——房地产价格看上去依然是危险的泡沫。

总会有地方有麻烦。

并且，买房通常涉及承担大量贷款，这种类型的泡沫破裂之后，对银行造成的冲击会相当的大。

对发达和新兴市场的金融危机的研究表明，房价周期与银行萧条有一致的联系。