Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Models
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有用的金融术语翻译financial markets 金融市场savings and loans 储蓄存款与借款credit unions 信用社mortgages 抵押贷款(指房屋,土地等)auto loans 汽车消费贷款certificates of deposit 存款单银行对存款人将资金存放于银行一定期间所发给的证明文件,可分为可转让定存单(Negotiable CD)与不可转让定存单(Non-negotiable)managerial finance 财务管理wave of mergers 合并风浪,公司或组织的合并Common equity 普通股Par value股票的面值Retained earnings保留盈餘資產負債表中股東權益重要項目之一,表示公司的獲利保留,未以股利方式配發,並將保留盈餘做為公司長期營運資金或固定投資的資金來源。
(又稱未分配盈餘、盈餘公積、累計盈餘或保留淨利)Additional paid-in capital 附加的缴入资本(属于所有者权益)Discounted securities折价证券Treasury bills 国库券Repurchase agreement重购回协定。
Repurchase Agreement。
指资产的卖方同意在某特定日期,以特定价格再买回其所卖出资产的协议。
...Federal funds 联邦资金Banker’s acceptance银行承兑Commercial paper商业票据Certificate of deposit存款单Negotiable CD 可转让存单Eurodollar deposit 欧元存款Money market mutual funds货币市场的开放式资金Term loan定期贷款Coupon rate 票面利率General obligation bond市政债券可分两大类: (1)一般信用担保债券(generalobligation bond): 并无与特别项目挂钩的市政债券,其本息的偿付来自发行当局的综合收入--主要为地方政府的各种税收;Debenture 公司债券Subordinated debenture subordinated debenture次位债券. 一种无担保债券,发行机构万一破产,求偿顺位低于其他债券。
成本会计直接人工成本差异(direct labor variance)直接材料成本差异(direct material variance)在产品计价(work-in-process costing)联产品成本计算(joint products costing)生产成本汇总程序(accumulation process of procluction cost)制造费用差异(manufacturing expenses variance)实际成本与估计成本(actual cost and estimated cost)工资费用分配(salary costs allocation)成本曲线(cost curve)农业生产成本(agriculture production cost)原始成本和重置成本(original cost and replacement cost)工程施工成本直接成本与间接成本(direct cost and indirect cost)可控成本(controllable cost)制造费用分配(manufacturing expenses allocation)理论成本与应用成本(theory cost and practice cost)辅助生产成本分配(auxiliary production cost allocation)期间,费用成本控制程序(procedure of cost control)成本记录(cost entry, cost recorder cost agenda)成本计算分批法(job costing method)成本计算分步法直接人工成本差异(direct labor variance)成本控制方法(cost control method)内河运输成本生产费用要素(elements of production expenses)历史成本与未来成本(historical cost and future cost)可避免成本与不可避免成本(avoidable cost and unavoidable cost)成本计算期(cost period)平均成本与个别成本(avorage cost and individual cost)跨期摊提费用分配(inter-period expenses allocation)计划成本(planned cost)数量差异(quantity variance)燃料费用分配(fuel expenses allocation)定额成本控制制度(norm cost control system)定额管理(management norm)可递延成本与不可递延成本(deferrable cost and undeferrable cost)成本控制标准(standard of cost control)副产品成本计算(by-product costing)责任成本(responsibility cost)生产损失核算(production loss accounting)生产成本(production cost)预计成本(predicted cost)成本结构(cost structure)房地产开发成本主要成本与加工成本(prime costs and processing costs)决策成本(cost of decision making)成本计算品种法(category costing method)在产品成本(work-in-process cost)工厂成本(factory cost)成本考核(cost assess )制造费用(manufactruing expenses)动力费用分配(power expenses allocation)趋势分析法(trend analysis approach)成本计算简单法(simple costing method)责任成本层次(levels of responsibility cost)对比分析法(comparative analysis approach)约当产量比例法(equivalent units method)原始记录(original record)可比产品成本分析(general product cost analysis)成本计算方法(costing method)成本计算对象(costing objective)成本计算单位(costing unit)成本计划完成情况分析成本计划管理体系(planned management system of cost)成本计划(cost plan)成本会计(cost accounting)成本核算原则(principle of costing)成本核算程序(cost accounting qrocedures)成本核算成本(costing account)成本核算(costing)成本归集(cost accumulation)成本管理(cost management)成本分析(cost analysis)成本分配(ocst allocation)成本分类账(cost ledger)成本分类(cost classifiction)成本费用界限成本调整(cost adjustment)成本差异(cost variance)成本报告(costing report)成本(cost)车间成本(workshop cost)厂内经济核算制(internal business accounting system)厂内结算价格(internal settlement prices)产品寿命周期成本(product life cycle cost)产品成本项目(cost items of product)产品成本技术经济分析产品成本计划(the plan of product costs)产品成本(product cost)初级会计汇总原始凭证(cumulative source document)汇总记账凭证核算形式(bookkeeping procedure using summary ovchers)工作底稿(working paper)复式记账凭证(mvltiple account titles voucher)复式记账法(Double entry bookkeeping)复合分录(compound entry)划线更正法(correction by drawing a straight ling)汇总原始凭证(cumulative source document)会计凭证(accounting documents)会计科目表(chart of accounts)会计科目(account title)红字更正法(correction by using red ink)会计核算形式(bookkeeping procedures)过账(posting)会计分录(accounting entry)会计循环(accounting cycle)会计账簿(Book of accounts)活页式账簿(loose-leaf book)集合分配账户(clearing accounts)计价对比账户(matching accounts)记账方法(bookkeeping methods)记账规则(recording rules)记账凭证(voucher)记账凭证核算形式(Bookkeeping proced ureusing vouchers)记账凭证汇总表核算形式(bookkeeping procedure using categorized account summary)简单分录(simple entry)结算账户(settlement accounts)结账(closing account)结账分录(closing entry)借贷记账法(debit-credit bookkeeping)通用日记账核算形式(bookkeeping procedure using general journal)外来原始凭证(source document from outside)现金日记账(cash journal)虚账户(nominal accounts)序时账簿(book of chronological entry)一次凭证(single-record document)银行存款日记账(deposit journal)永续盘存制(perpetual inventory system)原始凭证(source document)暂记账户(suspense accounts)增减记账法(increase-decrease bookkeeping)债权结算账户(accounts for settlement of claim)债权债务结算账户(accounts for settlement of claim and debt)债务结算账户(accounts for settlement of debt)账户(account)账户编号(Account number)账户对应关系(debit-credit relationship)账项调整(adjustment of account)专用记账凭证(special-purpose voucher)转回分录(reversing entry)资金来源账户(accounts of sources of funds)资产负债账户(balance sheet accounts)转账凭证(transfer voucher)资金运用账户(accounts of applications of funds)自制原始凭证(internal source document)总分类账簿(general ledger)总分类账户(general account)附加账户(adjunct accounts)付款凭证(payment voucher)分类账簿(ledger)中级会计固定资产(fixed assets)利润总额利益分配(profit distribution)应计费用(accrued expense)商标权(trademarks and tradenames)全部履行法净利润(net income)应付利润(profit payable)未分配利润收益债券(income bonds)货币资金利息资本化(capitalization of interests)公益金工程物资预付账款(advance to supplier)其他应收款(other receivables)现金(cash)预收账款公司债券发行(corporate bond floatation)应付工资(wages payable)实收资本(paid-in capital)盈余公积(surplus reserves)管理费用土地使用权股利(dividend)应交税金(taxes payable)流动资金负商誉(negative goodwill)费用的确认(recognition of expense)短期投资(temporary investment)专项资产【旧】专有技术(know-how)专营权(franchises)资本公积(capital reserves)资产负债表法资金占用和资金来源[旧]自然资源(natural resources)存货(inventory)车间经费【旧】偿债基金(sinking fund)长期应付款(long-term payables)长期投资(long-term investments)长期借款(long-term loans)长期负债(long-term liability of long-term debt)财务费用(financing expenses)拨定留存收益(appropriated retained earnings)标准成本法(standard costing)变动成本法(variable costing)比例履行法包装物版权(copyrights)高级会计期货交易市场(market of futures transaction)期货交易(futures transaction)举债经营融资租赁(leveraged lease)金融工具(financial instruments)企业集团(business qroup)年度报告(annual report)内部往来(transactions between home office and branches)合伙企业(partnership enterprise)合并资产负债表(consolidated balance sheet)合并主体的所得税会计(accounting for income taxes of consolidated entities)(美)合并现金流量表(consolidated statement of cash flow)合并价差(cost-book value differentials)合并会计报表(consolidated financial statements)购买法(purchase methed)企业整体价值(the value of an enterprise as a whole)权益结合法(pooling of interest method)期内所得税分摊(intraperiod tax allocation)(美)期末存货的未实现损益(unrealized profit in ending inventory)公司间的长期资产业务(intercompany transactions in long-term assets)名义货币保全(maintaining capital in units of money)基金论(the fund theory)功能性货币(functional currency)(美)汇兑损益(exchange gains or losses)合并财务状况变动表(consolidated statement of changes in financial poition)合并财务状况变动表(consolidated statement of changes in financial poition)换算损益(translation gains or losses)举债经营收购(Leveraged buyouts,简称LBC)(美)母公司持股比例变动(change in ownership percentage held by parent)交互分配法(reciprocal allocation approach)(美)货币项(monetary items)合伙清算(partnership liquidation全面分摊法(comprehensive allocation)固定资产投资方向调节税合并费用(expenses related to combinations)间接标价法(indirect quotation)买入汇率(buying rate)期货合约(futrues contract)混合合并(conglomeration)控投公司(holding company)股票指数期货(stock index futrues)横向销售(crosswise sale)固定汇率(fixed rate)纳税影响法(tax effect method)记账汇率(recording rate)横向合并(horizontal integration)合并前股利(preacquisition dividends)可变现净值(net realizable)企业合并会计(accounting for business combination)平仓盈亏(offset gain and loss)卖出汇率(selling rate)金融期货交易(financial futures transaction)会计利润(accounting income)合并损益表(consolidated income statement)公允价值(fair value)期权(options)间接控股(indirect holding)两笔交易观(two-transaction opinion)破产清算(bankrupcy liquidation)企业合并(business combination)企业论(the enterprise theory)商品寄销(consignment)个人所得税(personal income tax)个人财务报表(personal financial state-ments)(美)改组计划(reorganization plan)(美)改组(reorganization)复杂权益法(complex equity method)附属公司(associated company)负权人偿金(dividend)浮动汇率(floating rate)分支机构会计(accounting for branch)推定赎回损益(constructive gains and losses on bonds)推定赎回(constructive retirement)投机(spculation)贴水(discount)特定物价指数(specific price index)分支机构(branch)分期收款销货(installment sales)分次清算(installment liquidation)分部报告(segmental reporting)房地产收入(real estate revenue)房地产成本(cost of real setate)房地产(real estate)多种汇率法(multiply exchange rate)对境外实体的净投资(net investment in foreign entities)订量单位:(units of measurement)递延法(deffered method)当代理论(contemporary theory)单一汇率法(singal method)退休金(pension plan)退休金会计(accounting for pension plan)(美)退休金给付义务(pension benefit obligations)(美)外币(foreign currency)外币业务(foreign currency transaction)吸收合并(merger)物价变动会计(accounting for price changes)无偿债能力(insolvency)完全合并(full consolidation)物价指数(price index)物价变动(price changes)完全应计法(full accrual method)物价总指数(general price index)外汇期货交易(foreign exchange frtrues transaction)下推会计(push-down accounting)(美)先折算后调整法(translation-remeasurement method)现行成本/稳值货币会计(current cost/general purchasing power accountin)现行成本(crurent cost)现行成本会计(current cost accounting)先调整后折算法(remeasurement-translation method)销售代理处(sales agency)相互持股(mutual holdings)相对账户调节(reconciliation of home office and branch accounts)新合伙人入伙(admission of a new parther)向上销售(upstream sale)衍生金融工具(derivative financial instru-ments)销售式融资租赁(sales-type financing lease)向下销售(downstream sale)消费税(consumer tax)一笔交易观(one-transaction opinion)业主权论(the proprietorship theory)一般物价水准会计(general price level accounting)一般购买力单位(units of general purchasing power)招股说明书(prospectus)中间汇率(middle rate)中期报告(interim reporting)重置成本(replacement cost)转租赁(subleases)准改组(quasi-reorbganization)(美)资本保全(capital maintenance)资本化价值(capitalized value)资本因素(capital factor)资产负债法(asset/libility method)存货转让价格(inventory transfer price)创立合并(consolidation)出租人会计(accounting for leases-lessor)持有(产)损益(holding gains losses)持仓盈亏(opsition gain and loss)承租人会计(accounting for leases-leasee)成本回收法(cost recovery method)纵向合并(Vertical integration)综合变动(general change)子公司权益变动(change in ownership of a subsidiary)子公司(subsidiary company)资源税(resources tax)成本法(cost method)财产信托会计(fiduciary accounting)(美)财产税(property tax)部分分摊法(partial allocation)不合并子公司(unconsolidated subsidiaries)最低退休金负债(minimum liability)(美)租赁(leases)租金(rents)企业会计企业财务(business finance)期权市场(option market)期货市场(future market)可转让定期存单市场(negotiable CDmarket)货币市场(money market)黄金市场(gold market)国有独资公司股份有限公司(company limited by shares)股份两合公司(limited pactnership)公司(company)二级市场(security secondary market)独资企业(sole proprietorship)店头市场(over-the -counter-market)承兑市场(acceptance market)拆借市场(lending market)财务制度(financial regulations)财务政策(financial policy)财务预测(financial forecast)财务控制(financial control)金融市场(financial market)财务决策(financial decision)财务监督(financial cupervision)财务计划(financial planning)财务活动(financial activities)财务管理组织(organization of financial management)一级市场(security primary market)无限责任公司(company of unlimited liability)外汇市场(foreign exchange market)贴现市场(dixcount market)企业组织形式(forms of enterprise organization)政府会计企业财务(business finance)期权市场(option market)期货市场(future market)可转让定期存单市场(negotiable CDmarket)货币市场(money market)黄金市场(gold market)国有独资公司股份有限公司(company limited by shares)股份两合公司(limited pactnership)公司(company)二级市场(security secondary market)独资企业(sole proprietorship)店头市场(over-the -counter-market)承兑市场(acceptance market)拆借市场(lending market)财务制度(financial regulations)财务政策(financial policy)财务预测(financial forecast)财务控制(financial control)金融市场(financial market)财务决策(financial decision)财务监督(financial cupervision)财务计划(financial planning)财务活动(financial activities)财务管理组织(organization of financial management)一级市场(security primary market)无限责任公司(company of unlimited liability)外汇市场(foreign exchange market)贴现市场(dixcount market)企业组织形式(forms of enterprise organization)事业单位会计(accounting for non-profit organizations)事业单位固定资产(fixed assets for non-profit organizations)事业单位固定基金(fixed funds non-profit organizations)事业单位负债(liabilities for non-profit organizations)事业单位对外投资(outside investments for non-profit organizations)事业单位财务清算(liquidation of non-profit organization)上缴上级支出(payment to the higher authority)上级补助收入(grant from the higher authority)其他收入(miscellaneous gains)科学事业单位资产(scientific research instifutes’assets)科学事业单位支出(scientific research institutes’expenditures)科学事业单位预算(scientific research institutes’budgeting)科学事业单位收入(scientific research institutes’revenues)科学事业单位结余(scientific research institutes’surplus)科学事业单位会计制度(accointing regulations for scientific research instifutes)科学事业单位会计报表分析(scientific research institutes-analysis of accounting statements)科学事业单位会计(sicentific research institute accounting)科学事业单位成本费用管理(scientific research institutes-cost maragement)科学事业单位财务制度(financial regulations for scientific research institutes)经营支出(orerating expense )经营收入(operating revenue)基金预算支出(fund budget expenditure)基金预算收入(fund budget revenue)基金预算结余(surplus of fund budget)国家预算(state budget)国家决算(final accounts of state revenue and expenditure)高等学校资产(colleges and universities assets)高等学校支出(colleges and universities expenditures)高等学校预算管理方式(budget management method of colleges and universities)高等学校收入(colleges and universities revenues)专用基金支出(expenditure on special purpose fund)专用基金收入(proceeds from special purpose fund)专用基金结余(surplus of special purpose funds)中华人民共和国预算法(the budget law of the people’s Republic of China)资金调拨支出(expenditure on allocated and transeferred fund)财政收入(public finance-revemue)财政净资产(public finance-net assets)财政负债(public finance-liabilities)财政补助收入(grant from the state)拨入专款(restricted appropriation)dsa管理会计政治风险(political risk)再开票中心(reinvoicing center)现代管理会计专门方法(special methods of modern management accounting)现代管理会计(modern management accounting)提前与延期支付(Leads and Lags)特许权使用管理费(fees and royalties)跨国资本成本的计算(the cost of capital for foreign lnuertments)跨国运转资本会计(multinational working capital management)跨国经营企业业绩评价(multinational performance evaluation)经济风险管理(managing economic exposure )交易风险管理(managing transaction exposure)换算风险管理(managing translation exposure)国际投资决策会计(foreign project appraisal)国际管理会计(international management)国际存货管理(international inventory management)股利转移(dividend kemittances)公司内部贷款(intercompany loans)冻结资金转移(repatriating blocked funds)冻结资金保值(maintaining the value of blocked funds)调整后的净现值(adjusted net present value)。
“三大模块”题库(英语多项选择)1. CAMEL Rating System includes:A:Capital adequacy B:Asset qualityC:Management ability D:Earning performanceE:Liquidityanswer:ABCDE2. What are the several steps of Savings deposits?A, open an account B、deposit money C、transfer moneyD、settlementE、withdraw moneyF、Account Closing Answer: ABEF4. Bank's internal audit departments () periodically review the rating system and its banking operations, the prosecution trial included____.A、Operation of the credit sector.B、Probability of default.C、LGD(loss given default).D、Default risk exposure.E、Expected loss.答案:ABCD5. The typical measures of internal control included:(BC)A. risk identifiedB. behavior controlC. assessment and authorizationD. Information Exchange6. The followings can be classified as off-balance sheet business are: ( BCD )A. DepositsB. Trust ConsultingC.L/CD. Agency7. The Basel Capital Accord (Basel I) is made up of three elements, they are: (ABC)A. a definition of regulatory capitalB. risk-weighted assetsC. credit conversion factors (CCFs)D. internal control and audit8. The risk exposure and assessment disclosures relate to (ABCD)A. credit riskB. market riskC.operational riskD. interest rate risk in the banking book10. Strong mobility management, including key factors:(ABCD)A. Good management information systemB. Control of the Central LiquidityC. Options of the net funding requirementsD. Diversification of financing sources, and contingency plans12. Which of the followings are the products of corporate debts (ABCD)A .revolving liquidity loan B. trade financing loanC. corporate account overdraftD. syndicated loan《商业银行主要业务》P38 选择题第二题13. The methods of issuing financial bonds include: (AD )A. through market distributionB. through agreementC. through lead commercial bank underwritingD. through directional distribution《商业银行主要业务》P135 选择题第一题15. The main causes that would lead to internal control failure include(B、C、D)A、poor external supervision and regulation;B、lack of internal supervision;C、disordered control structure;D、neglecting the risks of new business.出处:《银行监管实务》P253 一、(五)17. Which three major risks of the following are the Chinese bankinginstitute facing at present time? (multiple choices)A. credit riskB. market riskC. legal riskD. operation riskAnswer: A B D20. Quantitative and consolidated supervisionconcludes (Answer:AB)A. the supervision of inside transactionB. capital supervisionC. the supervision of interest conflictsD. the supervision of financial safety nets free-rider22. Component Risk Assessment contains: (Answer:BCD)A. reportB. Inherent RiskC. Risk ControlD. Risk in Future23. What are the approaches for measuring the operation risk proposed bythe Basel II: (ABC)A. Basic indicator approachB. Standardized approachC. Advanced measurement approachD. Internal Rating Approach24. Loan guarantees includes(A B C )A、Mortgage;B、Pledge;C、guarantee;D、letter of comfort25. Which kind of loan below belongs to the category of corporate loans?(ABCD )A、Working Capital Circular LoansB、Trade Financing loansC、Corporate Account OverdraftD、Syndicated Loans26. The three main risks which China's banking sector is facing are(ABD ).A. Credit risk;B. Market risk;C. legal risk;D. operational risk.29. Results of rating system, which must be used in banks' daily operation, include __abcdA Credit approvalB Risk managementC Internal capital locationD Corporate governance30. The major interest rate risk banks face includes; ABCDA Option riskB Benchmark riskC Yield curve riskD Repricing risk31. In operation and management of commercial banks, capital demand management mainly includes __ABA Scale managementB Structure managementC Maturity managementD Debt Capital management32. Based on the funding sources, liability business of commercial banks can be categorized: ABDA Deposit liabilityB Borrowing liabilityC Inter-bank lending liabilityD "Clearing liability"33. The important bank blank voucher include: ABCDA Certificate of depositB Bank passbookC CheckD Credit card(Letter of credit)34. For commercial bank, which two parts does the operating revenuemainly include?A Asset RevenueB Rental RevenueC Service RevenueD Bond RevenueANSWER:AC42. Risk assessment include: (BCD)A, to know about institutionsB, the risk management capabilitiesC, the risk levelD, the developing direction of risk E, to collect information43. Factors affecting the loan loss: (ABC)A, the customer behavior B, value of collateral C, ability of the guarantor D, the bank's management level44. The loan review should focus on : (ABCD)A, Loan Purpose B, source of repayment, C, asset conversion cycle D, the repayment record52. Non-performing loans includes .A. substandardB. doubtfulC. lossD. passE. special mention答案:A B C(出自《银行监管实务》第二模块信用风险监管第六章不良贷款管理实践练习)53. According to the risk profile, grades the loans into 5 categories,namely .A. passB. special mentionC. substandardD. doubtfulE. loss答案:A B C D E(出自《银行监管实务》第二模块信用风险监管第六章不良贷款管理)55. The new regulatory concepts of CBRC includes .A. conducting consolidated supervisionB. focusing on risk-based supervisionC. strengthening banks internal controlsD. enhancing transparency答案:A B C D(出自《银行业监管理念监管文化》模块二中国银行业监管目标、理念和标准)56. The three pillars of the NEW Capital Accord include .A. minimum capital requirementsB. the supervisory review proessC. market disciplineD. credit rating答案:A B C(出自《银行监管实务》第五模块资本监管)57. Commercial Bank Profitability analysis of basic methods include: A: Comparative AnalysisB: Difference AnalysisC: Ratio AnalysisD: Factor AnalysisAnswer: ACDQuestion 19,263 in Self-Practices of Banking Practices58. Commercial banks prepare financial statements which should meet the following requirements:A: Data authenticB: binding of simple beautyC: comprehensive and completeD: submit timely preparation ofAnswer: ACDQuestion 19122 in Self-Practices of Banking Practices62. Among the following choices, which are used for measuring credit risk? (b,c,d)A. The weighted methodB. The standard methodC. The primary method of internal ratingD. The senior method of internal rating63. The equity capital of the banks are mainly used for (abcd)A. providing permanence income resources for shareholders and lasting capital resources for the banksB. undertaking risks and adopting losesC. proving for the foundation of business developmentD. guaranteeing the sound and stable management of the banks for the shareholders66. Loan vouch is (ABC)A、PledgeB、ImpawnC、GuaranteeD、Comfort letter67. Internal control’s goal is ( abc )A、Enhance work performanceB、Advance authenticity of financial dataC、Strengthen compliance & validityD、Ensure realization of work goal68. What kind of main risk exists in loan acceptance operation? abcA、Policy riskB、Law & regulatory riskC、Banking liquidity riskD、Market risk。
信用风险英语(精选五篇)第一篇:信用风险英语信用风险专业术语SWOT分析SWOT analysis——分析经营风险的方法。
即对企业的优势strengths、弱点weaknesses、机会opportunities、威胁threats列表分析。
Z值ZScore——指对企业财务状况、破产可能性的量化评估。
Z 值主要利用核心的财务指标进行评估,它是由企业破产预测模型得出。
Z值模型Zscoremodels——用少量关键指标衡量企业破产风险的模型。
每一个z值模型都有自己的关键指标。
不同的z值模型适用于不同的行业和不同的国家。
巴塞尔协议BasleAgreement——由各国中央银行、国际清算银行成员签订的国际协议,主要是关于银行最小资本充足的要求。
它也被称为BIS规则BISrules。
保兑信用证ConfirmedLetterofCredit——开出信用证的银行和第二家承兑的银行都承诺有条件地担保支付的信用证。
保留所有权的条款RetentionofTitleClause——销售合同中注明,供应商在法律上拥有货物的所有权,直到顾客支付了货款的条款。
保证契约Covenant——借款人承诺遵循借款条约的书面文件,一旦借款人违背了契约书的规定,银行有权惩罚借款人。
本票PromissoryNote——承诺在指定的日期支付约定金额的票据。
边际贷款MarginalLending——新增贷款。
可以指对现有客户增加的贷款,也可指对新客户的贷款。
边际客户MarginalCustomer——指额外的客户。
寻求成长机会的企业会尽力将产品销售给新客户,而且通常是不同种类的客户。
这些新增客户的信用风险可能比企业现有的客户要高。
财产转换贷款AssetConversionLoan——用于短期融资的短期贷款,例如,季节性的筹集营运资金。
财务报告/财务报表Financialreports/statements——财务报告或财务报表是分析企业信用风险时的重要信息来源。
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other payablestrade and other receivablestrade discounttrade discount and rebatetrade investmenttrade liabilitiestrademarktransaction costs (financial instruments) transanction in foreign currencytransfertransfer pricetransitional liability ( defined benefit plans) transitional provisiontreasury sharestrue and fair viewtrust activitiestrust fundtrusteesultimate redemption valueunderlyingunderlying financial instrumentunderlying primary financial instrument understandabilityunearned finance incomeunguaranteed residual valueunit of production methoduniting of interestsunquotesunrealized gainunrealized lossunrealized profitunused tax creditunusual itemupstream activitesupstream productupstream transactionsuseful lifevacation payvalid expectationvaluationvariable production overheadsventurervested employee benefitsvoting rightwarrantwarrantywarranty costswarranty provisionsweighted average cost formulasweighted average cost methodwelfare planwholly-owned subsidiarywithholding taxwork in progresswork performed by the enterprises and capitalised working capitalwrite backwrite downwrite offwrite-down investories on an item by item basis writeryield企业集团加速股利会计假设会计估计会计处理,会计核算会计收益会计期间会计政策会计利润会计处理应计权责发生制,应计制应计雇员费用应计负债累计摊销额累计汇兑差额累计损益累计带薪缺勤被购方购买方购买,收买,购并购买费用活跃市场实际汇率精算假设精算损益承诺福利的精算现值承诺退休福利的精算现值精算报告精算技术精算估价精算师追加的,额外的额外对价行政费用预收款,预付款加总,汇总,总计加总价值分配,分摊备抵,折让允许选用的处理方法摊销摊销方法摊销期摊余成本金额可收回金额,可补偿金额辅助费用年度报告,年报预期未来交易反稀释分配,分拨正常交易,公平交易要价评价,评估资产产权转让联营企业归属于批准报出可供出售的平均账面金额平均汇率收益与成本的平衡资产负债表负债法银行透支基本每股收益期初基准处理方法受益方最佳估计投标保函出价票据约束性销售协议董事会奖金,红利红股奖金计划借款协议借款费用自下而上测试分支机构经纪人佣金,经纪人业务企业合并购买式企业合并业务分部回购采购分部看涨期权,买入期权可赎回的可赎回债券(利率)上限资本资本法资本资产定价模型资本承诺资本投入资本利得资本保全资本交易资本化资本化发行资本化比率结转后期未利用的税款抵扣结转后期未利用的可抵扣(应税利润额的)亏损结转后期账面金额可抵扣(应税利润额的)亏损抵前现金收付实现制现金等价物现金流量现金流量风险现金流量表现金产出单元银行存款现金流入库存现金现金流出存单会计政策变更财务状况变动借记,计入首席执行官,行政总裁,总经理资产类别归类,分类清算所期末汇率可回收性收账费用并股合并合并实体合并经营成果合并和分立的建造合同参与合并的企业佣金承诺承诺费,承约费商品合同商品期货合同以商品为基础的合同普通股可比性不加控制的可比价格法比较期间带薪缺勤补偿,报酬复合金融工具计算机软件信用风险集中对价一致性合并资产负债表合并财务报表合并集团合并收益表合并并股合并程序固定回报率建造合同施工间接费用推定义务易耗品或有事项或有资产或有承诺或有利得或有负债或有损失或有租金或有可发行股合同,合约承包商合同义务合同条款合同权利注资,出资出资,提存金控制惯例转换期权转换权转换可转换可转换债券版权总部资产区间成本成本法购买成本,收买成本,购并成本处置成本销售成本存货成本人工成本采购成本销售成本销售成本法成本回收法成本节省成本加成合同成本加成法购买成本材料成本注册费用完工尚未发生的成本对应方贷记,贷项信用便利信用风险赊销期限债权人信用可靠度累积优先股股利累积优先股货币风险货币互换货币折算差额当期和预期获利能力流动资产现行成本现行成本法现行成本财务报表现行利率短期投资流动负债当期当期工资法当期服务成本当期税金缩减顾客信赖,顾客忠诚购买日,收买日,购并日出资日报告日评估日日常活动交易性证券债务拖欠债务性工具债务性证券债务-权益比率下跌可抵扣暂时性差异违约递延法递延酬劳递延酬劳安排递延汇兑损益递延收益递延付款递延付款条件递延收入递延所得税资产递延所得税负债递延所得税设定受益计划设定提存计划可比程度交付,交割,交货;送达活期存款明确承诺提取存款应折旧金额应折旧资产折旧折旧方法折旧率终止确认(某一金融工具)终止确认(某一金融工具)衍生金融工具衍生工具开发费用开发支出开发阶段稀释每股收益稀释稀释选择权稀释性潜在普通股余额递减折旧法直接影响直接增量费用直接投资直接人工直接发直接关系可直接归属的支出解脱,解除披露披露已终止经营终止经营折价,折扣,贴水折现率处置处置收入子公司的处置处置亏本销售分派,分配销售费用,分销费用股利收益应收股利股利率股利股利政策跟单信贷下游交易,下销交易收益每股收益,每股盈利获利能力经济利益经济寿命经济业绩生效日期实际利率法实际收益率消除嵌入衍生工具雇员福利雇员福利费用期末实体权益权益资本权益计酬福利权益计酬计划权益性金融工具权益性工具股份发行权益法权益性证券估计价值评价,估价资产负债表日后事项汇率外汇管制汇兑差额汇兑损失资产交换执行待执行合同行使日行使价格现有用途,现行用途预期增长率预期价值,预期价值法结转后期的支出费用经验调整失效,满期,终止满期日,终止日说明性注释勘探风险敞口除权展期外部客户消除消除债务采掘非常项目资产负债表表内收益表表内公允表述,公允列报公允价值真实反映费,手续费伙伴子公司先进先出法筹资费用筹资成本融资收益融资租赁为交易而持有的金融资产或负债金融资产财务预算财务担保金融机构金融工具财务权益金融负债财务或财政援助财务业绩财务政策财务状况财务审阅,财务审核财务权利财务报表财务结构财务支持财务年度财务年度年初至今基础筹资活动筹资安排筹资手段产成品确定承诺确定购买合同确定销售合同财政政策固定造价合同固定制造费用固定赎回价值浮动利率,浮动汇率(利率)下限强制性交易国外业务外币外币借款外币套期外币交易国外实体汇兑损益国外经营预计寿命饶让贷款远期合同框架特许权费受让人(接受特许权人)特许权费特许人(授出特许权人)精算估价周期全额支付重大差错注资政策注资风险代客持有资金追加费用未来经济利益期货合同利得一般行政费用(财务报表中)一般披露要求一般物价水平一般购买力法通用财务报表一般工资水平地区分部持续经营商誉政府援助政府补助政府采购与资产相关的政府补助与收益相关的政府补助账面总金额融资租赁投资总额销售毛利毛利指南标题总部的费用套期会计套期有效性被套期项目套期套期工具为交易而持有持有至到期的投资租购合同历史成本历史成本制度损坏责任转移协议控股公司主合同恶性通货膨胀恶性通货膨胀经济可辨认性可辨认资产资产和负债的认定认定,辨认不重要减值减值损失资产减值推算成本,假计成本估算利率奖励租赁起始日发生率收益收益法来自联营企业的收益收益表收益表负债法所得税所得税资产所得税法所得税负债产生收益的资产(承租人)增量借款利率增量股份豁免条款间接法单个资产,个别资产单个负债,个别负债初始账面价值(终止经营的)初始披露事项初始计量初始确认保险合同保险费承保人无形资产(雇员福利计划的)利息成本合营企业中的权益利息收益附息或不附息的负债与准备利率上限利率上下限组合利率下限租约中的内含利率利率风险利率互换本金剥离中期财务报告中期内部管理结构内部组织结构内部利润内部报告分部自创商誉国际会计准则国际会计准则委员会集团内部交易存货投资活动投资企业投资投资收益投资业绩投资性房地产投资性证券投资税款抵减合营中的投资者非自愿清算股票发行已发行股本项目共同控制共同拥有合营产品合营企业合营活动合营协议共同控制资产共同控制实体共同控制景扬管辖区域,管辖范围人工租赁租赁期法律顾问律师费用法律实体法定兼并法定义务法定执行权贷款人出借方回报承租人出租人信用证平均收益率杠杆租赁负债负债法许可证许可证费,执照费许可证受让人许可协议许可证让予人人寿保险企业后进先出法逐项报告格式单列项目清算流动性流动性风险。
CreditRisk+模型在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用的开题报告一、选题背景商业银行作为金融市场中最重要的一种金融机构,其业务主要包括接受存款、发放贷款、办理汇兑、提供信用证服务等。
在其业务中,信用风险是最为重要的。
因此,商业银行需要对信用风险进行评估,确定信用风险的大小,并采取相应的措施进行控制。
CreditRisk+模型是一种基于黑色-斯科尔斯模型的信用风险管理模型,能够通过对贷款组合的分布、违约概率分布和损失率分布的统计分析来评估信用风险。
由于CreditRisk+模型考虑了不同违约事件之间的依赖关系,因此可以更好地反映真实的信用风险水平。
因此,CreditRisk+模型已经成为商业银行信用风险管理中应用较多的一种模型。
二、研究内容和目的本文的研究内容主要是基于CreditRisk+模型,探究其在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用。
具体来说,研究内容包括以下几个方面:1. CreditRisk+模型的基本原理和算法。
2. 采用CreditRisk+模型进行信用风险评估的步骤和方法。
3. 实际案例分析,通过对某商业银行的贷款组合进行CreditRisk+模型的计算,从而评估其信用风险水平。
本文的主要目的是通过对CreditRisk+模型的深入了解,探究该模型在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用,并研究如何更好地运用该模型来评估和控制信用风险,从而提高商业银行的风险管理水平。
三、论文结构安排本文的主要结构安排如下:第一章:绪论。
介绍本文研究的背景、选题意义和研究内容。
第二章:CreditRisk+模型的基本原理和算法。
主要介绍CreditRisk+模型的基本原理、构建方法和模型参数的估计方法。
第三章:采用CreditRisk+模型进行信用风险评估的步骤和方法。
主要介绍CreditRisk+模型在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用方法,并结合实际案例进行说明。
第四章:实际案例分析。
通过对某商业银行的贷款组合进行CreditRisk+模型的计算,评估其信用风险水平,并提出应对措施。
毕业论文开题报告课题名称:我国商业银行信贷风险研究学生姓名:系别:专业:指导教师:2011年12 月25 日下面是赠送的范文,不需要的朋友可以下载后编辑删除2013党风建设心得体会范文按照上级的统一部署,我们认真组织开展了党风廉政建设教育活动。
通过学习,我对活动的重要意义有了一个更高的认识,使我对开展党风廉政建设的重要性和必要性有了更进一步的认识和了解。
可以肯定地说,通过这次教育活动,使自己对相关内容在原有的学习基础上有了更进一步的提高,在一些方面拓宽了思路,开阔了视野,增强了搞好工作的信心。
现就学习情况谈一点粗浅的认识和看法。
一、加强党风廉政建设,干干净净履行职责党风廉政建设关乎民心向背,关乎事业成败。
党中央领导集体对加强党风廉政建设和反腐败斗争给予高度关注和重视,采取了强力措施,中纪委三次全会上提出了“四大纪律”、“八项要求”,中央连续出台了《党内监督条例》和《纪律处分条例》两个法规,充分显示了坚持不懈反腐倡廉的强大决心。
对于廉洁自律问题,要把握好两条:一要干事,二要干净,也就是既勤又廉。
不勤政无以立业,就没地位;不廉政无以立身,就栽跟头。
要把这两条统一起来对待,经得起考验,树立好形象。
1、要警钟长鸣,筑牢防线。
任何腐化、腐败行为都是从思想的蜕化开始的,都有一个思想演变的过程。
因此,把牢思想这一关是最有效的预防,加强思想教育也是反腐倡廉的根本之策。
我们一时一刻都不能放松世界观、人生观、价值观的改造。
要认识到权力是一把双刃剑,用好了能为民造福,用不好也能为自己造“罪”。
我虽然只是公安局一名普通民警,也应该倍加珍惜得来不易的工作,不要因一念之差给家庭、给亲人带来无以挽回的痛苦。
2、从严自律,管住自己。
当前市场经济的趋利性逐步渗透到社会生活的方方面面,形形色色的价值观不断充斥人们的思想,我们现在各方面的条件也有了很大的改善。
但越是在这种形势下,越要保持清醒的头脑,越要保持艰苦奋斗的作风,越要从方方面面严格要求自己。
第 42 卷第 6 期2023年 11 月Vol.42 No.6Nov. 2023中南民族大学学报(自然科学版)Journal of South-Central Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)基于XGBoost机器学习模型的信用评分卡与基于逻辑回归模型的对比张利斌,吴宗文(中南民族大学经济学院,武汉430074)摘要分别基于逻辑回归模型和XGBoost机器学习模型构建了信用评分卡,比较了两种模型在个人信用评分上的表现,指出XGBoost机器学习模型在“AUC、KS、F1和Accuracy值”上表现更加优秀.首先,从数据的包容性、可解释性以及模型的准确性方面对两个模型进行了对比;其次,使用住房贷款违约风险预测的竞赛数据,分别构建了基于逻辑回归模型和XGBoost机器学习模型的信用评分卡,并使用了AUC、KS、F1和Accuracy来评估这两个模型的分类效果和预测准确程度;最后,通过对比两个模型的评估结果,分析了XGBoost机器学习模型相较于逻辑回归模型更加优秀的原因.结论指出:XGBoost机器学习模型在测试集上的AUC、KS、F1和Accuracy值比逻辑回归模型分别提升了19.9%、17.5%、15.4%和11.9%,其原因在于XGBoost机器学习模型纳入了更多的维度信息、更加科学的缺失值处理方式以及考虑了正则化项的算法原理.关键词逻辑回归模型;XGBoost机器学习模型;信用评分卡中图分类号TP181;F832.51 文献标志码 A 文章编号1672-4321(2023)06-0846-07doi:10.20056/ki.ZNMDZK.20230616Credit scoring card based on XGBoost machine learning modelCompared with logistic regression modelZHANG Libin,WU Zongwen(School of Economics, South-Central Minzu University, Wuhan 430074, China)Abstract A credit scoring card based on logistic regression model and XGBoost machine learning model are constructed respectively. The performance of the two models are compared in personal credit scoring,and it is pointed out that XGBoost machine learning model performs better in “AUC, KS, F1 and Accuracy values”. Firstly, a comparative analysis of the two models is made from the aspects of data inclusiveness, interpretability and model accuracy. Secondly, using the competition data of housing loan default risk prediction,credit scoring cards based on logistic regression model and XGBoost machine learning model are constructed respectively, and AUC, KS, F1 and Accuracy are used to evaluate the classification effect and prediction accuracy of the two models. Finally,by comparing the evaluation results of the two models,the reason why XGBoost machine learning model is better than logistic regression model is analyzed. The conclusion points out that the values of AUC, KS, F1 and Accuracy of XGBoost machine learning model in the test set are increased by 19.9%, 17.5%, 15.4% and 11.9% respectively compared with logistic regression model. The reason is that XGBoost machine learning model includes more dimensional information, more scientific missing value processing method and better algorithm principle considering regularization term.Keywords logistic regression model; XGBoost machine learning model; credit score card在金融风控领域,如何根据贷款客户的基本信息和行为数据等,利用一定的分类模型,将贷款客户区分为违约客户和非违约客户,从而减少贷款机构的信用风险,是金融贷款机构孜孜不倦的追求.收稿日期2022-03-15作者简介张利斌(1973-),男,教授,博士,研究方向:产业经济学,E-mail:*****************基金项目中南民族大学研究生创新基金项目资助项目(3212021sycxjj195)第 6 期张利斌,等:基于XGBoost机器学习模型的信用评分卡与基于逻辑回归模型的对比当前有两种主流分类模型——统计学模型和机器学习模型.逻辑回归模型是最常用的统计学模型,其优点主要体现在:第一,理论基础成熟,适合二分类问题[1];第二,可解释性较强,易于理解[2];第三,模型训练时间短[3].缺点主要体现在:第一,容易产生过拟合,泛化能力弱[4];第二,特征空间很大时,分类性能不好[5].近年来,XGBoost机器学习模型在分类问题中表现优秀,受到越来越多风控人员的青睐,其优点主要体现在:第一,计算复杂度低,运行速度快,准确度高[6];第二,可处理数据量大[7].缺点主要体现在:第一,建模过程不透明,模型较难解释[8];第二,理论基础不够成熟,布置上线较困难[9].在分类模型的评价方面,当前学者主要使用AUC、KS、F1和Accuracy值等来评价逻辑回归模型和XGBoost机器学习模型的效果,并指出XGBoost 机器学习模型比逻辑回归模型在AUC、KS、F1和Accuracy值上表现更加优秀,但是并未解释更加优秀的原因.本文拟从维度信息的损失程度、缺失值的处理方式以及模型的算法原理三方面来解释其中的原因.1 模型对比1.1 逻辑回归模型逻辑回归模型[10]是线性回归模型的改进,是一种“广义的线性回归模型”,该模型是分类问题中最常用的统计学模型.逻辑回归模型的一般形式见式(1)所示,如下:f(x)=11+e-()β0+β1x1+β2x2+⋯+βn x n,(1)其中,β0~βn为模型的估计参数,x1~x n为模型的变量.在金融风控领域,以贷款客户的违约与否作为逻辑回归模型的因变量,一般称为“非违约客户”和“违约客户”,用0或1来表示,即f(x)<0.5为0;f(x)>0.5为1.1.2 XGBoost机器学习模型XGBoost机器学习模型[11]比传统的GBDT (Gradient Boosting Decision Tree,以下简称GBDT)更加进步的原因在于:传统的GBDT只利用了一阶的导数信息,而XGBoost机器学习模型对损失函数进行了二阶的泰勒展开,求得模型最优解的效率更高.具体如下:将XGBoost机器学习模型进行t次迭代之后,此时的目标函数为:L()t=∑i=1n l()yiyit-1+f t(x i)+Ω(f t),(2)将目标函数进行泰勒二阶展开可得:L t≈∑i=1néëêêùûúúl()yi,y i(t-1)+g i f t(x i)+12h i f2t()x i+Ω(f t),(3)gi=∂y(t-1)l(y t,y∧(t-1))为每个样本的一阶导数,12h i=12∂2y(t-1)l(y i,y∧(t-1))为每个样本的二阶导数.1.3 模型优缺点逻辑回归模型和XGBoost机器学习模型的优缺点如表1所示.相较于XGBoost机器学习模型,逻辑回归模型更加方便实现,并且可解释强;XGBoost 机器学习模型在处理大数据时精度更高,并且可以有效防止过拟合.2 实证分析本文的实证分析思路如下:首先,分别运用逻辑回归模型和XGBoost机器学习模型来构建信用评分卡,并运用AUC、KS、F1和Accuracy这四个指标评估模型的效果.其次,从维度信息的损失程度、缺失值的处理方式以及模型的算法原理三个方面对比两个模型,分析XGBoost机器学习模型比逻辑回归表1 逻辑回归模型和XGBoost机器学习模型的优缺点Tab. 1 Advantages and disadvantages of logistic regression model and XGboost machine learning model模型逻辑回归模型XGBoost机器学习模型优点适用于二分类问题简单易理解,可解释性强训练速度快精度高能有效处理缺失值能有效防止过拟合缺点对自变量的多重共线性表现敏感特征空间很大时,分类性能不好容易产生过拟合,分类精度不高建模不透明,不易理解处理低偏差、高方差的数据效果不好847第 42 卷中南民族大学学报(自然科学版)模型更加优秀的原因.2.1 逻辑回归模型2.1.1 数据介绍实验数据来自于kaggle 官网(https ://www./c/home -credit -default -risk/overview )的住房贷款违约风险预测的竞赛数据.本文的实验数据集包括20000个训练数据和5000个测试数据,其中实验数据集共有121列,包括个人基本信息、所在地区情况、借贷信息状况以及公司相关状况等.本文为更好地解释实证部分,将实验数据集的英文变量翻译为中文变量,如表2所示.2.1.2 数据预处理(1) 无效值处理原始数据表中的SK_ID_CURR 变量在实际建模中的用处不大,且包含用户的隐私信息,故需直接删除.(2) 缺失值处理根据jupyter 分析软件可得,121个变量中共有65个有缺失值.其中,共有57个变量的缺失比例大于10%,将其直接删除,对剩余的缺失变量做相应的填充处理,具体处理方式如表3所示.2.1.3 入模变量筛选对逻辑回归模型来说,入模变量的选择至关重要.本文选择WOE 分箱、IV 值筛选法以及相关性检测相结合的方法筛选入模变量,具体思路如下:首先,根据变量的阈值以及业务趋势进行WOE 分箱;其次,根据WOE 分箱计算变量的IV 值,筛选IV 值大于0.3的变量(IV 值大于0.3有较高的预测能力);最后,对IV 值大于0.3变量进行相关性检测,剔除相关性大于0.5中IV 值较小的那个变量.一般来说,建立逻辑回归模型只需选择10~12个变量[12].本文选择IV 值排名靠前且通过相关性检测的11个变量作为入模变量,具体如表4所示.2.1.4 逻辑回归模型的建立根据SPSS 软件,确定x 1~x 11各变量的估计参数,从而建立逻辑回归模型,具体表达式如(4)式所示:f (x )=11+e -()-1.132+0.535x1+0.462x 2+0.769x 3+0.713x 4+0.976x 5+0.875x 6+0.568x 7+0.760x 8+0.375x 9+0.179x 10+0.268x 11,(4)表2 变量解释表Tab. 2 Variable interpretation英文变量名称TARGETNAME_EDUCATION_TYPE AMT_INCOME_TOTAL DAYS_EMPLOYED DAYS_BIRTH FLAG_OWN_REALTYREGION_RATING_CLIENTREG_CITY_NOT_WORK_CITYFLAG_OWN_CAR FLAG_MOBILNAME_INCOME_TYPENAME_FAMILY_STATUSREGION_RATING_CLIENT_W_CITYCODE_GENDER AMT_CREDITNAME_HOUSING_TYPEDEF_30_CNT_SOCIAL_CIRCLE…DEF_60_CNT_SOCIAL_CIRCLE REG_CITY_NOT_LIVE_CITY BASEMENTAREA_AVG ORGANIZATION_TYPE中文变量名称违约情况教育程度收入就业年数年龄不动产拥有情况所在地区评级常驻地址和工作地址匹配情况车辆情况家庭电话提供情况收入类型家庭状况所在城市的评级性别贷款金额住房情况违约60天的天数…违约30天的天数常驻地址和联系地址匹配情况房屋的面积大小公司的组织情况解释0:正常还款;1:违约客户受教育程度客户的年总收入申请人就业年数客户申请贷款时的年龄Y :有;N :没有1:最高;2:中等;3:较差1:相同;0:不相同(城市级别匹配)Y :有;N :没有1:有;0:没有客户的收入类型客户的家庭状况1:最高;2:中等;3:较差F :女;M :男客户的贷款金额客户的住房情况(租房or 与父母同住)客户违约30天的次数…客户违约60天的次数1:相同;0:不相同(城市级别匹配)客户居住房屋的面积大小客户工作的组织类型848第 6 期张利斌,等:基于XGBoost 机器学习模型的信用评分卡与基于逻辑回归模型的对比其中x i (i =1⋯11)为11个入模变量;f (x )为预测结果.2.1.5 信用评分卡的建立根据传统的信用评分机制,可以制作信用评分卡,标准的信用评分卡如表5所示.表中,A 、B 为假设的基础分值,本文设为500和50,θ0~θn 为x 1~x n 的估计参数,ω11~ωnk n为x 1~x n 各分量的WOE 值.根据评分转换原理,计算出11个入模变量的各分量得分值,具体结果如表6所示.利用表6的信用评分卡对5000个测试集样本进行评分转换,得测试集样本的最终得分情况见表7.从表7的得分情况可以看出,随着用户得分的上升,高分段的坏样本占比呈现出不断下降的趋势,这也说明了信用评分卡可以较好地识别信用风险.2.1.6 模型的效果评价对于分类模型而言,可以从分类能力和预测的准确程度来评价模型的效果.一般来说,使用AUC 和KS 来评估模型的分类能力以及F1和Accuracy 来评估模型的预测准确程度[13].通过对训练集和测试集的样本测试,得到相关的评价指标如表8所示.从表8可以看出该模型在测试集上拥有0.7294的AUC 和0.5378的KS ,这表示模型具有较好的分类能力.同时该模型在测试集上拥有0.8218的F1和0.8325的Accuracy ,这表示模型具有较高的预测准确程度.2.2 XGBoost 机器学习模型2.2.1 朴素的XGBoost 机器学习模型首先,用训练数据来建立默认参数下的XGBoost 机器学习模型;其次,对所构建的XGBoost 机器学习模型进行效果评价.具体结果如表9所示.由表9可知,在没有超参数约束的情况下,XGBoost 机器学习模型在训练集上完全拟合,而在测试集上的表现相对一般,这表明该模型的泛化能力较弱.造成这种现象的原因是XGBoost 机器学习模型是基于决策树的集成模型,如果不限制其增表3 缺失变量处理表Tab. 3 Missing variable processing table 变量名称COMMONAREA_AVGCOMMONAREA_MODE COMMONAREA_MEDINONLIVINGAPARTMENTS_AVGNONLIVINGAPARTMENTS_MODE …AMT_REQ_CREDIT_BUREAU_HOUR AMT_REQ_CREDIT_BUREAU_DAYAMT_REQ_CREDIT_BUREAU_WEEK NAME_TYPE_SUITEOBS_30_CNT_SOCIAL_CIRCLE DEF_30_CNT_SOCIAL_CIRCLE OBS_60_CNT_SOCIAL_CIRCLEDEF_60_CNT_SOCIAL_CIRCLEEXT_SOURCE_2AMT_GOODS_PRICEDAYS_LAST_PHONE_CHANGE缺失比例0.699250.699250.699250.693550.69355…0.134700.134700.134700.004150.003600.003600.003600.003600.002500.000750.00005处理方式删除变量删除变量删除变量删除变量删除变量…删除变量删除变量删除变量众数填充中位数填充中位数填充中位数填充中位数填充中位数填充中位数填充中位数填充表5 标准评分卡Table. 5 Standard score card变量基准点x 1x 2…x n WOE 分箱—12…k 112…k 2 (12)…k n分值(A -Bθ0)-(Bθ1ω11)-(Bθ1ω12)…-(Bθ1ω1k)-(Bθ2ω21)-(Bθ2ω22)-(Bθ2ω2k)…-(Bθn ωn 1)-(Bθnωn 2)…-(Bθn ωnk)表4 入模变量表Table. 4 Molding variables变量教育程度(x 1)收入(x 2)就业年数(x 3)年龄(x 4)不动产拥有情况(x 5)所在地区评级(x 6)常驻地址和工作地址匹配情况(x 7)车辆情况(x 8)家庭电话提供情况(x 9)收入类型(x 10)家庭状况(x 11)IV0.96300.92130.89760.84320.81340.75030.74180.72120.70190.68180.6745相关性检测全部变量均通过相关性检测849第 42 卷中南民族大学学报(自然科学版)长,它可以学习到适应所有训练样本的规则.但是如何提高该模型在测试集上的表现,才是我们真正所关心的,因此需要对模型进行调参优化.2.2.2 调优的XGBoost机器学习模型XGBoost的超参数可以归为三个核心部分:通用参数,Booster参数和任务参数[14].本文在通用参数、Booster参数以及学习目标参数这三类参数的具体选择如表10所示.本文使用网格搜索交叉验证得到的最优超参数为:eta为0.02,min_child_weight为2,gamma=0.2,max_depth为5,num_boost_round为110.使用该参数组合的XGBoost机器学习模型对训练数据和测试数据进行效果评价,具体结果如表11所示.从表11可以看出,该模型在测试集上拥有0.8746的AUC和0.6318的KS,这表示模型具有很好的分类能力.同时该模型在测试集上拥有0.9487的F1和0.9318的Accuracy,这表示模型具有很高的预测准确程度.将该模型与朴素的XGBoost机器学习模型在测试集上的表现进行对比,得到的结果如表12所示.从表12可知,调优的XGBoost机器学习模型相表8 模型结果评估Tab. 8 Evaluation of model results数据集训练集测试集分类能力评价AUC0.76820.7294KS0.55360.5378预测准确程度评价F10.83790.8218Accuracy0.84190.8325表9 朴素的XGBoost机器学习模型结果Tab. 9 Results of simple XGBoost machine learning model数据集训练集测试集分类能力评价AUC0.99620.8362KS0.99740.5546预测准确程度评价F10.99540.8871Accuracy0.99130.8916表6 基于逻辑回归模型的信用评分卡Tab. 6 Credit scoring card based on logistic regression model变量名称基础分值教育程度年龄常驻地址和工作地址收入类型WOE分箱—Lower secondarySecondary /secondary specialIncomplete higherHigher education20~4040~6060~80不相同相同WorkingCommercial associatePensionerState servantElse分值5576111419510133935321变量名称基础分值收入不动产拥有情况车辆情况家庭状况WOE分箱—<100000100000~200000200000~300000>300000有无无有MarriedSingle / not marriedCivil marriageSeparatedWidow分值55771013154112842431变量名称基础分值就业年数所在地区评级家庭电话提供情况WOE分箱—0~1010~2020~3030~50123否是分值5576101214491037表7 测试集样本得分情况统计Tab. 7 Statistics of sample scores of test set得分区间[599,609)[609,619)[619,629)[629,639)[639,649)[649,659)[659,669)[669,672]好样本132140645712865778712678坏样本3525535663473524总计167165698768928825747702好样本占比79%84.8%92.4%92.7%93.2%94.3%95.3%96.6%坏样本占比21%15.2%7.6%7.3%6.8%5.7%4.7%3.4%总体占比3.34%3.3%13.96%15.36%18.56%16.5%14.94%14.04%信用等级DCBA说明信用风险很高,不建议贷款有一定的信用风险,需要对资产和信誉做进一步评估后考虑是否贷款信用风险较低,需要对贷款的流向关注后考虑贷款信用风险极低,建议贷款850第 6 期张利斌,等:基于XGBoost 机器学习模型的信用评分卡与基于逻辑回归模型的对比比于朴素的XGBoost 机器学习模型,AUC 、KS 、F1和Accuracy 都有所提升,这说明调优后的XGBoost 机器学习模型更加优秀.2.2.3 信用评分卡的构建为了更加具体地观察调优的XGBoost 机器学习模型输出结果,本文考虑引入传统的信用评分机制,进而将机器学习模型输出的概率值转换为常见的信用评分值.通过对测试集样本的信用评分统计,具体的信用评分卡如表13所示.从表13可以看出,XGBoost 机器学习模型输出的概率值可以通过信用评分机制转换为信用评分值.随着得分的提高,好样本的占比逐渐提升,坏样本的占比逐渐降低,这说明所建立的信用评分卡能够较好地识别信用风险.2.3 模型对比分析根据上文的实验结果,将逻辑回归模型和调优的XGBoost 机器学习模型在测试集上的AUC 、KS 、F1和Accuracy 进行比较,如表14所示.从表14可以看出,XGBoost 机器学习模型在测试集上的AUC 、KS 、F1和Accuracy 均高于逻辑回归模型.通过对两种建模方式的比较,XGBoost 机器学习模型更加优秀的原因主要有以下三点:(1) 维度信息损失程度更低在建立逻辑回归模型,运用WOE 分箱、IV 值筛选法以及相关性检测相结合的方法从121个原始变量中挑选出11个变量来建立逻辑回归模型,该方法损失了较多的维度信息,仅列出Ⅳ最高的11个变量.然而,在建立XGBoost 机器学习模型时,将121个变量经过数据处理后全部输入到模型中,几乎没有原始数据的信息损失.单从数据维度来看,XGBoost 机器学习模型纳入更多的维度信息是机器学习模型相对于逻辑回归模型更加优秀的原因之一.(2) 缺失值的处理方式更加科学在建立逻辑回归模型时,一般删除缺失比例超表10 XGBoost 的调参参数Tab. 10 Adjusted parameters of XGBoost超参数通用参数Booster 参数学习目标参数参数标签booster=tree etamin_child_weight gamma max_depth num_boost_roundobject=binary :logisticeval_metric :auc ,ks ,f1,accuracy参数含义决策树学习率最小叶节点样本权值gamma 值基决策树最大深度迭代轮数逻辑回归算法误差评判标准参数作用使用决策树作为基学习器控制基学习器的特征权重更新大小控制基学习器的叶子节点分裂情况控制基学习器的叶子节点总数控制基学习器的最大深度控制算法的迭代次数控制每次迭代的目标损失函数评估模型的分类性能表12 朴素的XGBoost 与调优的XGBoost 机器学习模型对比结果Tab. 12 Comparison results of simple XGboost and optimizedXGboost machine learning models模型朴素的XGBoost 机器学习模型调优的XGBoost 机器学习模型AUC0.83620.8746KS0.55460.6318F10.88710.9487Accuracy 0.89160.9318表11 调优的XGBoost 机器学习模型结果Tab. 11 Results of optimized XGboost machine learning model 数据集训练集测试集分类能力评价AUC0.88690.8746KS0.65280.6318预测准确程度评价F10.95380.9487Accuracy 0.94190.9318表13 基于XGBoost 机器学习模型的信用评分卡Tab. 13 Credit scoring card based on XGBoost machine learning model输出概率(0.0,0.5](0.5,0.6](0.6,0.7](0.7,0.8](0.8,0.9](0.9,1.0]得分区间(-∞,500](500,509](509,528](528,558](558,606](606,+∞)好样本528755876985728660坏样本12510397814715总体6538589731066775675好样本占比/%80.8688.0090.0392.4093.9497.78坏样本占比/%19.1412.009.977.606.042.22总体占比/%13.0617.1619.4621.3215.5013.50信用等级D C B A说明信用风险很高,不建议贷款有一定的信用风险,需要对资产和信誉做进一步评估后考虑是否贷款信用风险较低,需要对贷款的流向关注后考虑贷款信用风险极低,建议贷款表14 逻辑回归模型与调优的XGBoost 机器学习模型对比结果Tab. 14 Comparison results between logistic regression model andoptimized XGboost machine learning model模型逻辑回归模型调优的XGBoost 机器学习模型AUC0.72940.8746KS0.53780.6318F10.82180.9487Accuracy 0.83250.9318851第 42 卷中南民族大学学报(自然科学版)过10%的缺失值,同时用众数填充类别型缺失变量和中位数填充连续型缺失变量,该方法有一定的人工干预,处理缺失值方式不够严谨.然而,XGBoost 机器学习模型采用内置算法处理数据的缺失值,该方法处理缺失值更加科学.单从缺失值的处理方式来看,XGBoost机器学习模型科学地处理缺失值是该模型相对于逻辑回归模型更加优秀的原因之一.(3) 模型的算法原理考虑了正则化项在建立逻辑回归模型时,没有考虑正则化项,导致该模型复杂度较高,有过拟合的风险,评估效果一般.然而,在建立XGBoost机器学习模型时,考虑了正则化项,降低了过拟合风险,评估效果得到了有效提升.单从模型的算法原理来看,XGBoost机器学习模型考虑了正则化项是该模型相对于逻辑回归模型更加优秀的原因之一.3 结论与思考本文比较了逻辑回归模型和XGBoost机器学习模型在信用评分卡构建中的具体表现,通过对比两个模型的AUC、KS、F1和Accuracy值,得出了以下结论:(1)逻辑回归模型在测试集上的分类效果以及预测准确程度不如XGBoost机器学习模型.逻辑回归模型的AUC、KS、F1和Accuracy均低于XGBoost 机器学习模型,这表明XGBoost机器学习模型在分类效果以及预测准确程度上均表现更优.(2)逻辑回归模型建模过程较XGBoost机器学习模型更易于理解.在建立逻辑回归模型时,通过特征筛选从121个变量中筛选出11个变量建立逻辑回归模型,该方法建模过程透明,易于理解.然而,XGBoost机器学习模型以编程和调整参数的形式来建立模型,具有一定的不透明性,不易于理解.(3)维度信息损失程度更低、缺失值的处理方式更加科学以及模型的算法原理更加科学(考虑了正则化项)是XGBoost机器学习模型相较于逻辑回归模型在分类效果以及预测准确程度上更加优秀的原因.如何融合逻辑回归模型和XGBoost机器学习模型,使其两者在风控领域可以优势互补,在提高模型效果的同时又增强解释能力?是值得我们下一步深入研究的问题.参考文献[1]WIGINTON,J C. A note on the comparison of logit and discriminant models of consumer credit behavior[J]. TheJournal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1980, 15(3): 757-770.[2]涂艳,王翔宇. 基于机器学习的P2P网络借贷违约风险预警研究——来自“拍拍贷”的借贷交易证据[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2018, 33(6): 69-76.[3]毛毅,陈稳霖,郭宝龙,等. 基于密度估计的逻辑回归模型[J]. 自动化学报, 2014, 40(1): 62-72.[4]COSTA S E, LOPES I C, CORREIA A, et al. A logistic regression model for consumer default risk[J]. Journal ofApplied Statistics, 2020, 47(13-15): 2879-2894.[5]周毓萍,陈官羽. 基于机器学习方法的个人信用评价研究[J]. 金融理论与实践, 2019(12): 1-8.[6]CHEN T,GUESTRIN C. XGBoost:A scalable tree boosting system[J]. IEICE Transactions on Fundamentalsof Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences,2016:785-794.[7]严武,冯凌秉,蒋志慧,等. 基于机器学习模型的P2P 网贷平台风险预警研究[J]. 金融与经济, 2019 (9):18-25.[8]黄卿,谢合亮. 机器学习方法在股指期货预测中的应用研究——基于BP神经网络、SVM和XGBoost的比较分析[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2018, 48(8): 297-307.[9]WANG Kui,LI Meixuan,CHENG Jingyi;et al.Research on personal credit risk evaluation based onXGBoost[J]. 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Chapter 2Analyzing Bank PerformanceChapter Objectives1.Introduce bank financial statements, including the basic balance sheet and income statement, and discuss theinterrelationship between them.2.Provide a framework for analyzing bank performance over time and relative to peer banks. Introduce key financial ratios that can be used to evaluate profitability and the different types of risks faced by banks. Focus on the trade-off between bank profitability and risk.3.Identify performance measures that differentiate between small, independent banks (specialty banks) and largerbanks that are part of multibank holding companies or financial holding companies.4. Distinguish between types of bank risk; credit, liquidity, interest rate, capital, operational, and reputational.5. Describe the nature of and meaning of regulatory CAMELS ratings for banks.6.Provide applications of data analysis to sample banks’ financial information.7.Describe performance characteristics of different-sized banks.8. Describe how banks can manipulate financial information to ‘window-dress’ performance.Key Concepts1. Bank managers must balance banking risks and returns because there is a fundamental trade-off between profitability, liquidity, asset quality, market risk and solvency. Decisions that increase banking risk must offer above average profits. The more liquid a bank is and the more equity capital used to fund operations, the less profitable is a bank, ceteris paribus.2. Banks face five basic types of risk in day-to-day operations: credit risk, liquidity risk, market risk, capital/solvency risk, and operational risk. Market risk encompasses interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk and price risk. Each type of risk refers to the potential variation in a ba nk's net income or market value of stockholders’ equity resulting from problems that affect that part of the bank's activities.3. Banks also face risks in the areas of country risk associated with loans or other activity with foreign government units and off-balance sheet activities, which create contingent liabilities. More recently, banks have focused on reputation risk. For example, from 2002-2005 Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, and Bank of America found that even though they continued to report strong pro fits, they experienced strong criticism for 1) their roles in facilitating strategies to disguise Enron’s true financial status, 2) problems in sub-prime lending programs via the Associates Corp. and their own internal finance company activities, 3) problems with underwriting subsidiaries with analyst conflicts between stock reports and the firm’s investment banking relationships; facilitating market timing of stock trades to their detriment of their own mutual fund holders, 4) lack of supervision of trading groups, and 5) facilitating improper borrowing at Parmalat.4. A bank's return on equity (ROE) can be decomposed in terms of the duPont system of financial ratio analysis. This examination of historical balance sheet and income statement data enables an analyst to evaluate the comparative strengths and weaknesses of performance over time and versus peer banks. The Uniform Bank Performance Report (UBPR) data reflect the basic ratios from this return on equity model.5. Different-sized commercial banks exhibit different operating characteristics and thus performance measures. Small banks typically report a higher return on assets (ROA) than large banks because they earn higher gross yields on assets and pay less interest on liabilities.6. High performance banks generally benefit from lower interest and non-interest expense and limit credit risk so that loan losses are relatively low. They also operate with above average stockholders' equity.7. Many banks can successfully "window-dress" performance by manipulating the reporting of financial data. They may accelerate revenue recognition and defer expenses or selectively alter when they take securities gains or losses and time when to charge off loans or report loans as non-performing. As such, they may inappropriately smooth earnings with provisions for loan losses or by other means. Analysts must be careful when evaluating extraordinary transactions that have one-time gain or loss features.Answers to End of Chapter Questions1. For a large bank, assets consist approximately of marketable securities (20%), loans (70%), and other assets (10%). Liabilities consist of core deposits (40%-60%), noncore, purchased liabilities (20%-40%), and other liabilities (5 %-10%) as a fraction of assets. Small banks typically obtain more funds in the form of core deposits and less in the form of noncore, purchased liabilities. Small banks often invest more in securities as well. Of course, the actual percentages for any bank depend on that bank’s business strategy, mark et competition, and ownership.2. A bank's interest income consists of interest earned on loans and securities while noninterest income includes revenues from deposit service charges, trust department fees, fees from nonbank subsidiaries, etc. Interest expense consists of interest paid on interest-bearing core deposits and noncore liabilities while noninterest expense is comprised of overhead costs, personnel costs, and other costs. A bank’s net interest income equals its interest income minus interest expense. Note that interest income may be calculated on a tax-equivalent basis in which tax-exempt interest is converted to its pre-tax equivalent. A bank’s burden is defined as its noninterest expense minus noninterest income. This is often quoted as a fract ion of total assets. A bank’s efficiency ratio is calculated as noninterest expense divided by the sum of net interest income and noninterest income. The denominator effectively measures net operating revenue after subtracting interest expense. The efficiency ratio measure the noninterest cost per $1of operating revenue generated. Analysts often interpret the efficiency ratio as a measure of a bank’s ability to control overhead relative to its ability to generate noninterest income (and overall revenue). A lower number is presumably better because it reflects better cost control compared with revenue generation.3. Balance sheet accounts:a. Increase liability: money market deposit account (+$5,000)Increase asset: federal funds sold (+$5,000)b. Decrease asset: real estate loanIncrease asset: mortgage loanc. Increase equity: common stock (common and preferred capital)Increase asset: commercial loans4. Income statementInterest on U.S. Treasury & agency securities $44,500Interest on municipal bonds 60,000Interest and fees on loans 189,700Interest income = $294,200Interest paid on interest-checking accounts $33,500Interest paid on time deposits 100,000Interest paid on jumbo CDs 101,000Interest expense = $234,500Net interest income = $59,700Provisions for loan losses = $ 18,000Net interest income after provisions = $41,700Fees received on mortgage originations $23,000Service charge receipts 41,000Trust department income 15,000Non-interest income = $79,000Employee salaries and benefits $145,000Occupancy expense 22,000Non-interest expense = $167,000Income before income taxes -$46,300Income taxes 15,742Net income = -$30,558Cash dividends declared 2,500Retained earnings = -$33,058This assumes that expenses associated with the purchase of the new computer are included in occupancy expense. If not, the computer expense (depreciation) will increase the loss for the period. Also, the bank can receive a tax refund from prior tax payments if the bank made a taxable profit within recent years.5. The primary risks faced by banks are credit risk, liquidity risk, interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk (the latter two represent market risk), operational risk, reputational risk, and capital solvency. In general, promised, or expected, returns should be higher for banks that assume increased risk. There should also be greater volatility in returns over time.a. Credit risk: Net loan charge-offs/LoansHigh risk - high ratio; Low risk - low ratioHigh risk manifests itself in occasional high charge-offs, which requires above average provisions for loan lossses to replenish the loan loss reserve. Thus, net income is volatile over time.b. Liquidity risk: Core deposits/AssetsHigh risk - low ratio; Low risk - high ratioHigh risk manifests itself in less stable funding as a bank relies more on noncore, purchased liabilities thatfluctuate over time. These noncore liabilities are also higher cost, which raises interest expense.c. Interest rate risk: (|Repriceable assets-repriceable liabilities|)/AssetsHigh risk - high ratio; Low risk - low ratioHigh risk banks do not closely match the amount of repriceable assets and repriceable liabilities. Largedifferences suggest that net interest income may vary sharply over time as the level of interest rates changes.d. Foreign exchange risk: Assets denominated in a foreign currency minus liabilities denominated in the same foreign currency.High risk – a large difference; Low risk – a small differenceHigh risk manifests itself when exchange rates change adversely and the value of the bank’s net position of assets versus liabilities denominated in a currency changes sharply.e. Operational risk: total assets/number of employeesHigh risk – low ratio; Low risk – high ratioHigh risk manifests itself when the bank operates at low productivity measured by more employees per amount of assetsf. Capital/solvency risk: Stockholders’ equity/AssetsHigh risk - low ratio; Low risk - high ratioHigh risk manifests itself because fewer assets must go into default before a bank is insolvent and can be closed down by regulators.g. Reputational risk is difficult to measure ex ante. It is more observable by announced problems and issues.6. Equity multiplierBank L: Equity/Assets = 0.06 indicates Assets/Equity = 16.67XBank S: Equity/Assets = 0.10 indicates Assets/Equity = 10XIf each bank earns 1.5% on assets (ROA = 0.015), then the ROEs will equal 25% (Bank L) and 15% (Bank S). If, instead, each bank reports a loss with ROA = -0.012, then the ROEs will equal -20% (Bank L) and -15% (Bank S). When banksare profitable, financial leverage has the positive effect of increasing ROE; when banks report losses, financial leverage increases the magnitude of loss in terms of a negative ROE.7. ROE= net income/stockholders' equityROA = net income/total assetsEM = total assets/stockholders' equityER = total operating expense/total assetsAU = total revenue/total assetsBalance sheet figures should be measured as averages over the period of time the income number is generated.ROE = ROA x EM ROA = AU – ER – TAXwhere TAX = applicable income tax/total assets.8. Profitability ratios differ across banks of different size as measured by assets. The primary reasons are that different size banks have different asset and liability compositions and engage in different amounts of off-balance sheet activities. Typically, small banks report higher net interest margins because their average asset yields are relatively high while their average cost of funds is relatively low. This reflects loans to higher risk borrowers, on average, and proportionately more funding from lower cost core deposits. ROEs, in turn, are often lower because small banks operate with more capital relative to assets, that is with lower equity multipliers, so that even with comparable ROAs the ROEs are lower. Large banks ROAs are increasing faster over time because large banks operate with lower efficiency ratios as they have been more successful in generating fee income.9. CAMELSa. C =capital adequacy: equity/assetsb. A = asset quality: nonperforming loans/loans; loan charge-offs/loansc. M = management: no single ratio is good, although all ratios indicate overall strategyd. E = earnings: aggregate profit ratios; ROE, ROA, net interest margin, burden, efficiencye. L = liquidity: core deposits/assets; noncore, purchased liabilities/assets; marketable securities/assetsf. S = sensitivity to market risk; |repriceable assets-repriceable liabilities|/assets; difference in assets and liabilitiesdenominated in the same currency; size of trading positions in commodities, equities and other tradeable assets.10. Lowest to highest liquidity risk: 3-month T-bills, 5-year Treasury bond, 5-year municipal bond (if high quality and from a known issuer), 4-year car loan with monthly payments (receive some principal monthly, may be saleable), 1-year construction loan, 1-year loan to individual, pledged 3-month T-bill. As stated, the 3-month T-bill that is pledged as collateral is illiquid unless the bank can change its collateral status.11. Comparative credit riska. loan to a comer grocery store representing a little known borrower with uncertain financialsb. loan collateralized with inventory (work in process) because the collateral is less liquid and more difficult to value;this assumes that the receivables are still viable and not too aged.c. normally the Ba-rated municipal bond, unless the agency bond is an "exotic" mortgage backed security, because theagency bond carries an implied guarantee in that Freddie Mac is a quasi-public borrower.d. 1-year car loan because the student loan is typically government guaranteed12. For the balance sheet: high core deposits/assets; high equity/assets; low noncore, purchased liabilities/assets; high investment securities/assets; high agriculture loans/assets (the value refers to that for small banks); For the income statement: net interest margin (high); burden/assets (high), efficiency ratio (high); (the descriptor in parentheses refers to the relationship for small banks versus larger banks).13. Extending a loana. the new loan is typically not classified as nonperforming because no payments are past dueb. often a bank recognizes that the loan is in the problem stage and the borrower renegotiates the terms in its favor;rationale is that the borrower may default if the loan is not restructured. Note that this restructuring gives theappearance that asset quality is higher.c. the primary risk is that the bank is throwing more money down a sink hole and will never recover any of its loan.14. Dividend payment: For: the loss is temporary and stockholders expect the dividend payment. Failure to make the payment will sharply lower the stock price because stockholders will be alienated. Against: the bank has not generated sufficient cash to make the payment from normal operations. By paying the cash dividend, the bank is self-liquidating. The cash dividend will lower the bank’s capital. What normally decides the issue is whether the loss is truly temporary or more permanent. Management typically errs by assuming that losses are temporary, and thus continues to make dividend payments when it should be reducing or eliminating them.15.Liquidity risk:a.Securities classified as held-to-maturity cannot be sold unless there has been an unusual change in the underlyingcredit quality of the security issuer. A high fraction indicates low liquidity because few securities (just 5% of the total) can be sold.b. A low core deposit base indicates a bank that relies proportionately more on noncore, volatile liabilities that are lessstable and more likely to leave the bank if rates change. This makes a bank’s funding sources less reliable and the bank subject to greater liquidity risk.c. A bank that holds long-term securities (8 years is long term) has assumed significant price risk even if the securitiescan be readily sold because they are classified as available-for-sale. Such securities will fall in value if interest rates rise. This indicates high liquidity risk.d.Assuming that $10 million in securities is sufficient, the fact that none are pledged makes them more liquid and isindicative of lower liquidity risk than if any securities were pledged.Problems1. Community National Bank (CNB)1. Profitability analysis for 2004 using UBPR figures:RATIO Community National Bank Peer BanksROE 8.67% 11.72%ROA 0.63 1.09EM 13.97X 10.67XAU 5.91 6.23ER 4.94 4.73TAX 0.34 0.41a.Aggregate profitability for CNB is substantially lower measured both by both ROE and ROA. Because CNB has less equity relative to assets, it has greater financial leverage. Thus, the greater financial leverage increases CNB’s ROE relative to peer banks. The fact that its ROE is lower, despite the greater leverage, indicates that the higher risk does not produce higher overall profitability. CNB has assumed a riskier profile with its greater financial leverage in that fewer assets can default before the bank is insolvent. CNB’s ROA is lower because it earns a lower average yield on assets (AU), pays more in operating expense (ER), offset somewhat by the fact that it pays less in taxes (TAX).b.Risk ComparisonCredit risk: same net charge-offs, much lower nonperforming (more than 90 days past due) and nonaccrual loans, higher provisions for loan losses (.30% versus 0.18%); loan loss reserve is a greater fraction of total loans and leases and a much greater fraction of noncurrent loans. Overall, the ratios indicate below-average risk. Of course, these figures represent only one year of data.Liquidity risk: lower equity to assets suggests higher liquidity risk from a funding perspective, higher available for sale securities and lower pledged securities suggests lower liquidity risk from the asset sale perspective; very high core deposits, low noncore funding (liabilities), low loans and leases and high ST securities suggest lowerliquidity risk. Overall, liquidity risk appears lower because the bank has a strong core deposit base, fewer loans and more securities can be readily sold. Still, the bank might have difficulty borrowing if loans exhibit low qualityand deposit outflows arise. Conclusion: below-average liquidity risk.Capital Risk: low capital to asset ratios; low equity to assets indicate above average capital risk; bank pays less out in dividends and its growth rate in equity capital is lower. Overall, the bank exhibits greater capital risk. Thissituation is offset by the bank’s apparent higher quality assets.Operational risk: low assets to employees ratio, high personnel expense to employees and high efficiency ratio indicate high operational risk. Of course, these data do not capture the likelihood of fraud and other potentialoperational problems.c.Recommendations:1)Impro ve the bank’s capital position; slow asset growth and pursue greater profits.2)Evaluate credit risk carefully; ensure that loans are adequately diversified and that any default of a single loan ortype of loans cannot place the bank’s capital at risk to where regulators will restrict the bank’s activities. Slow loan growth until capital base is at target. Implement a formal credit risk review process.3)Improve operating efficiency. Review noninterest expense sources and cut costs where possible.4)The first t wo suggestions will have the impact of lowering the bank’s earnings, ceteris paribus. Therefore,management should focus on growing sources of noninterest income that currently are not being pursued.2.Citibank UBPRa.In 2004, Citibank’s ROE equaled 15.26% while its ROA equaled 1.49% versus peers’ figures of 14.58% and 1.31%,respectively. Citibank’s equity multiplier (EM = ROE/ROA) equaled approximately 10.24X versus 11.13X for peers. Citibank’s AU is higher at 8.83% (5.25% + 3.58%) versus 7.69% (4.46% + 3.23%) at peers. Citibank clearly generated higher gross revenues from both interest and noninterest sources. Citibank’s expense ratio (ER), in turn, equaled 6.27% while ER for peers was much lower for each type of expense and in total at 4.23%. Based on the profit figures alone, Citibank appears to be a high performance bank and achieves that by generating greater relative revenues.b.Citibank’s credit risk (as evidenced only by the ratios provided) appears high as net losses to loans is higher thanPeers (1.58% versus 0.25%), as is noncurrent loans and leases as a fraction of loans (1.78% versus 0.59%). The loss allowance (reserve) is a higher fraction of loans, but a much smaller fraction of net losses (charge-offs) andnoncurrent loans indicating that more reserves might be appropriate.c.Citibank’s liquidity risk appears high as the bank has a lower equity to asset (tier 1 leverage capital) ratio and reliesmuch more on noncore liabilities (noncore fund dependence). With its greater credit risk, you might expect it to operate with greater equity capital. Similarly, the bank is growing at a fast pace which generally increases overall risk because management cannot easily control risk from growth.d.Recommendations:Carefully assess credit risk; realign portfolio where appropriate.Increase the loan loss reserve.Slow loan growth and/or shift loans to less risky classes.Line up additional sources of liquidity.Review pricing of loans and deposits; identify sources of fees/noninterest income to see if they are sustainable.。
本钱会计直接人工本钱差异〔direct labor variance〕直接材料本钱差异〔direct material variance〕在产品计价〔work-in-process costing〕联产品本钱计算〔joint products costing〕生产本钱汇总程序〔accumulation process of procluction cost〕制造费用差异〔manufacturing expenses variance〕实际本钱与估计本钱〔actual cost and estimated cost〕工资费用分配〔salary costs allocation〕本钱曲线〔cost curve〕农业生产本钱〔agriculture production cost〕原始本钱和重置本钱〔original cost and replacement cost〕工程施工本钱直接本钱与间接本钱〔direct cost and indirect cost〕可控本钱〔controllable cost〕制造费用分配〔manufacturing expenses allocation〕理论本钱与应用本钱〔theory cost and practice cost〕辅助生产本钱分配〔auxiliary production cost allocation〕期间,费用本钱控制程序〔procedure of cost control〕本钱记录〔cost entry, cost recorder cost agenda〕本钱计算分批法〔job costing method〕本钱计算分步法直接人工本钱差异〔direct labor variance〕本钱控制方法〔cost control method〕内河运输本钱生产费用要素〔elements of production expenses〕历史本钱与未来本钱〔historical cost and future cost〕可防止本钱与不可防止本钱〔avoidable cost and unavoidable cost〕本钱计算期〔cost period〕平均本钱与个别本钱〔avorage cost and individual cost〕跨期摊提费用分配〔inter-period expenses allocation〕方案本钱〔planned cost〕数量差异〔quantity variance〕燃料费用分配〔fuel expenses allocation〕定额本钱控制制度〔norm cost control system〕定额管理〔management norm〕可递延本钱与不可递延本钱〔deferrable cost and undeferrable cost〕本钱控制标准〔standard of cost control〕副产品本钱计算〔by-product costing〕责任本钱〔responsibility cost〕生产损失核算〔production loss accounting〕生产本钱〔production cost〕预计本钱〔predicted cost〕本钱结构〔cost structure〕房地产开发本钱主要本钱与加工本钱〔prime costs and processing costs〕决策本钱〔cost of decision making〕本钱计算品种法〔category costing method〕在产品本钱〔work-in-process cost〕工厂本钱〔factory cost〕本钱考核〔cost assess 〕制造费用〔manufactruing expenses〕动力费用分配〔power expenses allocation〕趋势分析法〔trend analysis approach〕本钱计算简单法〔simple costing method〕责任本钱层次〔levels of responsibility cost〕比照分析法〔comparative analysis approach〕约当产量比例法〔equivalent units method〕原始记录〔original record〕可比产品本钱分析〔general product cost analysis〕本钱计算方法〔costing method〕本钱计算对象〔costing objective〕本钱计算单位〔costing unit〕本钱方案完成情况分析本钱方案管理体系〔planned management system of cost〕本钱方案〔cost plan〕本钱会计〔cost accounting〕本钱核算原那么〔principle of costing〕本钱核算程序〔cost accounting qrocedures〕本钱核算本钱〔costing account〕本钱核算〔costing〕本钱归集〔cost accumulation〕本钱管理〔cost management〕本钱分析〔cost analysis〕本钱分配〔ocst allocation〕本钱分类账〔cost ledger〕本钱分类〔cost classifiction〕本钱费用界限本钱调整〔cost adjustment〕本钱差异〔cost variance〕本钱报告〔costing report〕本钱〔cost〕车间本钱〔workshop cost〕厂内经济核算制〔internal business accounting system〕厂内结算价格〔internal settlement prices〕产品寿命周期本钱〔product life cycle cost〕产品本钱工程〔cost items of product〕产品本钱技术经济分析产品本钱方案〔the plan of product costs〕产品本钱〔product cost〕初级会计汇总原始凭证〔cumulative source document〕汇总记账凭证核算形式〔bookkeeping procedure using summary ovchers〕工作底稿〔working paper〕复式记账凭证〔mvltiple account titles voucher〕复式记账法〔Double entry bookkeeping〕复合分录〔compound entry〕划线更正法〔correction by drawing a straight ling〕汇总原始凭证〔cumulative source document〕会计凭证〔accounting documents〕会计科目表〔chart of accounts〕会计科目〔account title〕红字更正法〔correction by using red ink〕会计核算形式〔bookkeeping procedures〕过账〔posting〕会计分录〔accounting entry〕会计循环〔accounting cycle〕会计账簿〔Book of accounts〕活页式账簿〔loose-leaf book〕集合分配账户〔clearing accounts〕计价比照账户〔matching accounts〕记账方法〔bookkeeping methods〕记账规那么〔recording rules〕记账凭证〔voucher〕记账凭证核算形式〔Bookkeeping proced ureusing vouchers〕记账凭证汇总表核算形式〔bookkeeping procedure using categorized account summary〕简单分录〔simple entry〕结算账户〔settlement accounts〕结账〔closing account〕结账分录〔closing entry〕借贷记账法〔debit-credit bookkeeping〕通用日记账核算形式〔bookkeeping procedure using general journal〕外来原始凭证〔source document from outside〕现金日记账〔cash journal〕虚账户〔nominal accounts〕序时账簿〔book of chronological entry〕一次凭证〔single-record document〕银行存款日记账〔deposit journal〕永续盘存制〔perpetual inventory system〕原始凭证〔source document〕暂记账户〔suspense accounts〕增减记账法〔increase-decrease bookkeeping〕债权结算账户〔accounts for settlement of claim〕债权债务结算账户〔accounts for settlement of claim and debt〕债务结算账户〔accounts for settlement of debt〕账户〔account〕账户编号〔Account number〕账户对应关系〔debit-credit relationship〕账项调整〔adjustment of account〕专用记账凭证〔special-purpose voucher〕转回分录〔reversing entry〕资金来源账户〔accounts of sources of funds〕资产负债账户〔balance sheet accounts〕转账凭证〔transfer voucher〕资金运用账户〔accounts of applications of funds〕自制原始凭证〔internal source document〕总分类账簿〔general ledger〕总分类账户〔general account〕附加账户〔adjunct accounts〕付款凭证〔payment voucher〕分类账簿〔ledger〕中级会计固定资产〔fixed assets〕利润总额利益分配〔profit distribution〕应计费用〔accrued expense〕商标权〔trademarks and tradenames〕全部履行法净利润〔net income〕应付利润〔profit payable〕未分配利润收益债券〔income bonds〕货币资金利息资本化〔capitalization of interests〕公益金工程物资预付账款〔advance to supplier〕其他应收款〔other receivables〕现金〔cash〕预收账款公司债券发行〔corporate bond floatation〕应付工资〔wages payable〕实收资本〔paid-in capital〕盈余公积〔surplus reserves〕管理费用土地使用权股利〔dividend〕应交税金〔taxes payable〕流动资金负商誉〔negative goodwill〕费用确实认〔recognition of expense〕短期投资〔temporary investment〕专项资产【旧】专有技术〔know-how〕专营权〔franchises〕资本公积〔capital reserves〕资产负债表法资金占用和资金来源[旧]自然资源〔natural resources〕存货〔inventory〕车间经费【旧】偿债基金〔sinking fund〕长期应付款〔long-term payables〕长期投资〔long-term investments〕长期借款〔long-term loans〕长期负债〔long-term liability of long-term debt〕财务费用〔financing expenses〕拨定留存收益〔appropriated retained earnings〕标准本钱法〔standard costing〕变动本钱法〔variable costing〕比例履行法包装物版权〔copyrights〕高级会计期货交易市场〔market of futures transaction〕期货交易〔futures transaction〕举债经营融资租赁〔leveraged lease〕金融工具〔financial instruments〕企业集团〔business qroup〕年度报告〔annual report〕内部往来〔transactions between home office and branches〕合伙企业〔partnership enterprise〕合并资产负债表〔consolidated balance sheet〕合并主体的所得税会计〔accounting for income taxes of consolidated entities〕〔美〕合并现金流量表〔consolidated statement of cash flow〕合并价差〔cost-book value differentials〕合并会计报表〔consolidated financial statements〕购置法〔purchase methed〕企业整体价值〔the value of an enterprise as a whole〕权益结合法〔pooling of interest method〕期内所得税分摊〔intraperiod tax allocation〕〔美〕期末存货的未实现损益〔unrealized profit in ending inventory〕公司间的长期资产业务〔intercompany transactions in long-term assets〕名义货币保全〔maintaining capital in units of money〕基金论〔the fund theory〕功能性货币〔functional currency〕〔美〕汇兑损益〔exchange gains or losses〕合并财务状况变动表〔consolidated statement of changes in financial poition〕合并财务状况变动表〔consolidated statement of changes in financial poition〕换算损益〔translation gains or losses〕举债经营收购〔Leveraged buyouts,简称LBC〕〔美〕母公司持股比例变动〔change in ownership percentage held by parent〕交互分配法〔reciprocal allocation approach〕〔美〕货币项〔monetary items〕合伙清算〔partnership liquidation全面分摊法〔comprehensive allocation〕固定资产投资方向调节税合并费用〔expenses related to combinations〕间接标价法〔indirect quotation〕买入汇率〔buying rate〕期货合约〔futrues contract〕混合合并〔conglomeration〕控投公司〔holding company〕股票指数期货〔stock index futrues〕横向销售〔crosswise sale〕固定汇率〔fixed rate〕纳税影响法〔tax effect method〕记账汇率〔recording rate〕横向合并〔horizontal integration〕合并前股利〔preacquisition dividends〕可变现净值〔net realizable〕企业合并会计〔accounting for business combination〕平仓盈亏〔offset gain and loss〕卖出汇率〔selling rate〕金融期货交易〔financial futures transaction〕会计利润〔accounting income〕合并损益表〔consolidated income statement〕公允价值〔fair value〕期权〔options〕间接控股〔indirect holding〕两笔交易观〔two-transaction opinion〕破产清算〔bankrupcy liquidation〕企业合并〔business combination〕企业论〔the enterprise theory〕商品寄销〔consignment〕个人所得税〔personal income tax〕个人财务报表〔personal financial state-ments〕〔美〕改组方案〔reorganization plan〕〔美〕改组〔reorganization〕复杂权益法〔complex equity method〕附属公司〔associated company〕负权人偿金〔dividend〕浮动汇率〔floating rate〕分支机构会计〔accounting for branch〕推定赎回损益〔constructive gains and losses on bonds〕推定赎回〔constructive retirement〕投机〔spculation〕贴水〔discount〕特定物价指数〔specific price index〕分支机构〔branch〕分期收款销货〔installment sales〕分次清算〔installment liquidation〕分部报告〔segmental reporting〕房地产收入〔real estate revenue〕房地产本钱〔cost of real setate〕房地产〔real estate〕多种汇率法〔multiply exchange rate〕对境外实体的净投资〔net investment in foreign entities〕订量单位:〔units of measurement〕递延法〔deffered method〕当代理论〔contemporary theory〕单一汇率法〔singal method〕退休金〔pension plan〕退休金会计〔accounting for pension plan〕〔美〕退休金给付义务〔pension benefit obligations〕〔美〕外币〔foreign currency〕外币业务〔foreign currency transaction〕吸收合并〔merger〕物价变动会计〔accounting for price changes〕无偿债能力〔insolvency〕完全合并〔full consolidation〕物价指数〔price index〕物价变动〔price changes〕完全应计法〔full accrual method〕物价总指数〔general price index〕外汇期货交易〔foreign exchange frtrues transaction〕下推会计〔push-down accounting〕〔美〕先折算后调整法〔translation-remeasurement method〕现行本钱/稳值货币会计〔current cost/general purchasing power accountin〕现行本钱〔crurent cost〕现行本钱会计〔current cost accounting〕先调整后折算法〔remeasurement-translation method〕销售代理处〔sales agency〕相互持股〔mutual holdings〕相对账户调节〔reconciliation of home office and branch accounts〕新合伙人入伙〔admission of a new parther〕向上销售〔upstream sale〕衍生金融工具〔derivative financial instru-ments〕销售式融资租赁〔sales-type financing lease〕向下销售〔downstream sale〕消费税〔consumer tax〕一笔交易观〔one-transaction opinion〕业主权论〔the proprietorship theory〕一般物价水准会计〔general price level accounting〕一般购置力单位〔units of general purchasing power〕招股说明书〔prospectus〕中间汇率〔middle rate〕中期报告〔interim reporting〕重置本钱〔replacement cost〕转租赁〔subleases〕准改组〔quasi-reorbganization〕〔美〕资本保全〔capital maintenance〕资本化价值〔capitalized value〕资本因素〔capital factor〕资产负债法〔asset/libility method〕存货转让价格〔inventory transfer price〕创立合并〔consolidation〕出租人会计〔accounting for leases-lessor〕持有〔产〕损益〔holding gains losses〕持仓盈亏〔opsition gain and loss〕承租人会计〔accounting for leases-leasee〕本钱回收法〔cost recovery method〕纵向合并〔Vertical integration〕综合变动〔general change〕子公司权益变动〔change in ownership of a subsidiary〕子公司〔subsidiary company〕资源税〔resources tax〕本钱法〔cost method〕财产信托会计〔fiduciary accounting〕〔美〕财产税〔property tax〕局部分摊法〔partial allocation〕不合并子公司〔unconsolidated subsidiaries〕最低退休金负债〔minimum liability〕〔美〕租赁〔leases〕租金〔rents〕企业会计企业财务〔business finance〕期权市场〔option market〕期货市场〔future market〕可转让定期存单市场〔negotiable CDmarket〕货币市场〔money market〕黄金市场〔gold market〕国有独资公司股份〔company limited by shares〕股份两合公司〔limited pactnership〕公司〔company〕二级市场〔security secondary market〕独资企业〔sole proprietorship〕店头市场〔over-the -counter-market〕承兑市场〔acceptance market〕拆借市场〔lending market〕财务制度〔financial regulations〕财务政策〔financial policy〕财务预测〔financial forecast〕财务控制〔financial control〕金融市场〔financial market〕财务决策〔financial decision〕财务监督〔financial cupervision〕财务方案〔financial planning〕财务活动〔financial activities〕财务管理组织〔organization of financial management〕一级市场〔security primary market〕无限责任公司〔company of unlimited liability〕外汇市场〔foreign exchange market〕贴现市场〔dixcount market〕企业组织形式〔forms of enterprise organization〕政府会计企业财务〔business finance〕期权市场〔option market〕期货市场〔future market〕可转让定期存单市场〔negotiable CDmarket〕货币市场〔money market〕黄金市场〔gold market〕国有独资公司股份〔company limited by shares〕股份两合公司〔limited pactnership〕公司〔company〕二级市场〔security secondary market〕独资企业〔sole proprietorship〕店头市场〔over-the -counter-market〕承兑市场〔acceptance market〕拆借市场〔lending market〕财务制度〔financial regulations〕财务政策〔financial policy〕财务预测〔financial forecast〕财务控制〔financial control〕金融市场〔financial market〕财务决策〔financial decision〕财务监督〔financial cupervision〕财务方案〔financial planning〕财务活动〔financial activities〕财务管理组织〔organization of financial management〕一级市场〔security primary market〕无限责任公司〔company of unlimited liability〕外汇市场〔foreign exchange market〕贴现市场〔dixcount market〕企业组织形式〔forms of enterprise organization〕事业单位会计〔accounting for non-profit organizations〕事业单位固定资产〔fixed assets for non-profit organizations〕事业单位固定基金〔fixed funds non-profit organizations〕事业单位负债〔liabilities for non-profit organizations〕事业单位对外投资〔outside investments for non-profit organizations〕事业单位财务清算〔liquidation of non-profit organization〕上缴上级支出〔payment to the higher authority〕上级补助收入〔grant from the higher authority〕其他收入〔miscellaneous gains〕科学事业单位资产〔scientific researc h instifutes’assets〕科学事业单位支出〔scientific research institutes’expenditures〕科学事业单位预算〔scientific research institutes’budgeting〕科学事业单位收入〔scientific research institutes’revenues〕科学事业单位结余〔scientific research institutes’surplus〕科学事业单位会计制度〔accointing regulations for scientific research instifutes〕科学事业单位会计报表分析〔scientific research institutes-analysis of accounting statements〕科学事业单位会计〔sicentific research institute accounting〕科学事业单位本钱费用管理〔scientific research institutes-cost maragement〕科学事业单位财务制度〔financial regulations for scientific research institutes〕经营支出〔orerating expense 〕经营收入〔operating revenue〕基金预算支出〔fund budget expenditure〕基金预算收入〔fund budget revenue〕基金预算结余〔surplus of fund budget〕国家预算〔state budget〕国家决算〔final accounts of state revenue and expenditure〕高等学校资产〔colleges and universities assets〕高等学校支出〔colleges and universities expenditures〕高等学校预算管理方式〔budget management method of colleges and universities〕高等学校收入〔colleges and universities revenues〕专用基金支出〔expenditure on special purpose fund〕专用基金收入〔proceeds from special purpose fund〕专用基金结余〔surplus of special purpose funds〕中华人民共和国预算法〔the budget law of the people’s Republic of China〕资金调拨支出〔expenditure on allocated and transeferred fund〕财政收入〔public finance-revemue〕财政净资产〔public finance-net assets〕财政负债〔public finance-liabilities〕财政补助收入〔grant from the state〕拨入专款〔restricted appropriation〕dsa管理会计政治风险〔political risk〕再开票中心〔reinvoicing center〕现代管理会计专门方法〔special methods of modern management accounting〕现代管理会计〔modern management accounting〕提前与延期支付〔Leads and Lags〕特许权使用管理费〔fees and royalties〕跨国资本本钱的计算〔the cost of capital for foreign lnuertments〕跨国运转资本会计〔multinational working capital management〕跨国经营企业业绩评价〔multinational performance evaluation〕经济风险管理〔managing economic exposure 〕交易风险管理〔managing transaction exposure〕换算风险管理〔managing translation exposure〕国际投资决策会计〔foreign project appraisal〕国际管理会计〔international management〕国际存货管理〔international inventory management〕股利转移〔dividend kemittances〕公司内部贷款〔intercompany loans〕冻结资金转移〔repatriating blocked funds〕冻结资金保值〔maintaining the value of blocked funds〕调整后的净现值〔adjusted net present value〕。
在全球经济衰退和气候变暖的双重危机下,欧美等发达国家从2008年开始将经济振兴的希望投向了以高能效、低排放为核心的“低碳革命”,温家宝总理在2010年的《政府工作报告》中也指出我国要大力开发低碳技术,努力建设以低碳排放为特征的产业体系和消费模式。
低碳经济已是规制世界发展新格局的又一个“全球宪章”,而手握定价权的碳金融,如同咽喉要道,成为低碳经济发展的制高点。
一、碳金融概念的提出“碳金融”的兴起源于国际气候政策的变化,准确地说是涉及两个具有重大意义的国际公约———《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》。
1992年6月在巴西里约热内卢举行的联合国环境与发展大会上,150多个国家制定了《联合国气候变化框架公约》(United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change ,简称《框架公约》)。
《框架公约》是世界上第一个为全面控制二氧化碳等温室气体排放,以应对全球气候变暖给人类经济和社会带来不利影响的国际公约,也是国际社会在应对全球气候变化问题上进行国际合作的一个基本框架。
1997年,《框架公约》缔约方第三次会议在日本东京通过了该公约的补充条款,即《京都议定书》,这是世界上首部设立强制性减排标准的国际协议,于2005年2月16日开始强制生效,要求作为温室气体排放大户的发达国家采取具体措施限制温室气体排放,在2008年到2012年期间,所有发达国家二氧化碳等6种温室气体的排放量,要比1990年减少5%,而发展中国家在此期间不承担具有法律约束力的温室气体限控义务。
在《京都议定书》的法律约束下,各国的碳排放额开始成为一种稀缺的资源,并最终催生出一个以二氧化碳排放权为主的碳交易市场。
当前碳排放权的“准金融属性”已日益凸显,并成为继石油等大宗商品之后又一新的价值符号。
随着碳交易市场规模的扩大,碳货币化程度越来越高,碳排放权进一步衍生为具有投资价值和流动性的金融资产。
Y625069硕士论文中国建设银行信贷风险管理的现状及对策研究摘要本文对中国建设银行信贷风险管理的现状及外部环境进行了分析,并采用了对比分析方法,结合国外先进商业银行信贷风险管理成功的经验和做法,从完善客户评价办法、完善法人授权制度、全面加强内控制度建设、信贷风险管理创新等方面提出了中国建设银行改进信贷风险管理的有效途径。
同时,针对中国建设银行姜堰市支行信贷风险管理实际情况展开实证分析。
本文对中国建设银行信贷风险管理问题进行了系统的分析,对改进信贷风险管理、防范和化解信贷风险提出了对策,因而对中国建设银行的信贷业务发展具有理论和现实意义。
关键词:中国建设银行信贷业务风险管理对策ABSTRACTInthepaper,curremsituationofcreditriskmanagementandoutsideenvironmentareanalysed.Withtheuseofcomparativeanalysismethod,accordingtothesuccessfulexperiencesofcreditriskmanagememinforeigncountries,itbringsupeffectivemethodsforimprovingcreditriskmanagementinChinaConstructionBankAtthesametime,analysingthecreditriskrealityinCCBJiangyanSub—branch.ThepapersystematicallyanalysesthecreditriskmanagementprobleminCCB,alsoprovidesmoreeffcetivemethodstoimprovecreditriskmanagement.Therefore,thatisofboththeorticalandpracticalsignificance.Keyword:ChinaConstructionBankCreditBusinessRiskManagementSolutions1绪论1.1研究的背景近年来,国有商业银行不良资产普遍偏高,风险隐患突出,严重削弱了国有商业银行的竞争力。
东华理工大学长江学院文献综述学生姓名xx学号xx专业会计指导教师xx职称讲师二零壹贰年六月摘要:应收账款在每个公司的资产中都占据着重要的地位,它直接影响公司是否有足够的运营资金,对公司未来的发展起着重要的作用,对公司财务目标的实现也有重要的意义。
因此,在激烈的市场竞争环境下,一个公司想要持久不断的发展,必须重视应收账款的管理。
袁秀兰在《当前企业应收账款管理的现状与对策》中指出:“在商业竞争日益激烈的今天,应收账款的存在不可避免。
应收账款作为企业营运资金管理的一项重要内容,它直接影响企业营运资金的周转和经济效益。
缺失对应收账款的管理,就会加大资金占用的机会成本,增加坏账损失,降低企业资金的周转速度,容易造成企业应收账款金额增加,时间拉长,风险增高,导致企业资产质量严重下降。
而加强企业应收账款管理,不仅可以加强资金的回笼,提高资金利用率、降低企业经营风险,而且还关系到企业的长远发展。
这就要求加强对应收账款的管理,加速它的周转,使企业在市场竞争中能更好地发挥应收账款的商业信用作用。
”本文以东莞东原电子有限公司为例,对东莞东原电子有限公司应收账款管理现状进行分析,并查找了大量与应收账款管理相关的资料,联系东莞东原电子有限公司的实际情况,找出问题,分析原因,提出相应的建议措施。
关键词:应收账款、坏账、经营风险应收账款是指企业销售产品、商品、提供劳务等原因,应向购货客户或接受劳务的客户收取的款项和代垫的运杂费,它是企业采取信用销售而形成的债权性资产,是企业流动资产的重要组成部分。
周淑琼在《谈应收账款的分析与管理》中认为:“虽然大多数公司希望现销而不愿赊销,但是面对目前越来越激烈的竞争环境,公司为了稳定自己的销售渠道、扩大商品销路、开拓并占领市场,降低商品的仓储费用、管理费用、增加收入,不得不面向客户采用信用政策,提供信用业务。
公司采用赊销,虽能给公司带来以上好处,但也要付出一定代价,给公司带来风险。
如客户拖欠货款,应收账款收回难,甚至收不回,形成呆账坏账,不仅占用公司运营资金,甚至给公司带来经营风险。
基于四分位数的线性无量纲化方法与变异系数赋权法刘攀;冯长焕【摘要】传统常见的线性无量纲化方法,如区间化法和均值化法,容易受极端值的影响,改变指标的权重,即使进行异常值处理后,仍可能存在远大于或远小于其他指标值的数据.基于四分位数,对线性无量纲化的方法进行了改进.并提出了中位数变异系数赋权法,与复相关系数赋权法结合对指标进行赋权,计算各种线性无量纲化方法与合理排序的等级相关系数,对无量纲化方法进行了优选.【期刊名称】《平顶山学院学报》【年(卷),期】2018(033)002【总页数】5页(P22-26)【关键词】数据预处理;线性无量纲化;四分位数;变异系数赋权法【作者】刘攀;冯长焕【作者单位】西华师范大学数学与信息学院,四川南充637002;西华师范大学数学与信息学院,四川南充637002【正文语种】中文【中图分类】O212.1在社会经济生活中,为了提高效益、节约成本,常常需要对事物多个方面进行评价,以进行投资优化、经营决策等.为了把握事物的整体状况,需要把被评价对象的多个单项指标的信息映射到一个综合指标上,即多指标综合评价.目前,综合评价已广泛应用于经济[1]、医学[2]、教育[3]等多个领域.综合评价时,有的指标的单位是长度,有的是价格,有的是面积,有的是体积等,这是单位差异.有的数据以千作计量,有的数据以万作计量,这是数量级的差异.有些指标数据越大越好,称为正指标(效益型指标);有些指标越小越好,称为逆指标(成本型指标);有些指标在某个区间或某个固定值最好,称为适度指标(固定型指标):这是趋势性差异.不同指标数据的差异主要体现在单位、数量级和趋势性这三个方面.在综合评价的数据预处理中,一般需要对数据进行无量纲化处理(也称为数据的规范化、规格化或标准化),目的是消除这三方面的差异,做到同单位化、同值域化和同趋势化.由于指标正向化的处理方法已经得到很好的解决[4-5],笔者仅针对正指标的无量纲化方法进行研究.邱东、胡永宏、郭亚军[4-6]等学者把无量纲化的方法归结为直线型、折线型和曲线型三类,这三种类型的方法各有优缺点及适用条件.因为直线型(或称为线性)无量纲化方法操作简便、计算量小,所以在综合评价中最为常用.传统常见的线性无量纲化方法都容易受异常值或极端值的影响,从而改变指标的权重.如果删除这些异常值或极值,会使得评价不全面.笔者尝试从四分位数的角度消除异常值的影响,对样本中所有的数据进行综合评价.1 传统常见的线性无量纲化方法线性无量纲化方法使处理后的数据与原数据保持线性关系,主要有阈值法、标准化法、比重法、功效系数法等[4-5].阈值法是将原指标值与该指标的某个阈值相比,阈值通常取最大值、最小值或某个特殊的值,主要有极大化、极小化、初值化、区间化等处理方法.标准化法(Z-score法)是将原始数据值与均值求差再除以标准差,使处理后的数据服从标准正态分布.比重法是把每个指标值表示为该指标所有值的线性比例或所有值的函数,包含百分比化和向量规范化.功效系数法是将原指标值域与该指标中的满意值和不容许值进行处理,然后对数据进行放缩与平移,可以得到想要的值域,是阈值法的一般化.记号说明:设有n个被评价对象,p个评价指标.记xi为第i个被评价对象在某个指标的实际值,Md为该指标样本的中位数,Q1为下四分位数,Q3为上四分位数.1.1 极大化、极小化与初值化(1)x0取M,m,x1时分别为极大化、极小化和初值化.若无量纲化后满足保序性(即当x1>x2时,使必须满足x0>0.比如一组数据为-5、-4、-3、-2、-1,其大小顺序编号为54321.经过极小化处理后5、4、3、2、1大小顺序编号为12345;经过极大化处理后,顺序编号为12345.经过初值化亦有类似影响,使评价有误,所以这3种方法都要求xi>0(i=1,2,…,n).并且当x0远大于(或远小于)其他数据时,该指标处理后的值偏大(或偏小),从而提高(或降低)指标的权重,使评价失真.改进:先平移,再除以即先改变序列使x′=x+k(这里的k使得所有x′的值为正),再进行处理,但k的取值不确定,使得问题复杂化,不建议使用.1.2 区间化(极值处理、极差变换)(2)特点:处理后的数据取值区间比较规范,f(x)∈[0,1].缺点:同样容易受极差M-m 的影响,使信息失真.极差很大时,f(x)过大,提高了该指标的权重;极差很小时,f(x)过小,降低了该指标的权重.改进:将各阈值改为中位数、众数、四分位数等,以消除极差过大或过小的影响.1.3 均值化(3)特点:当x>0时,f(x)∈(0,1).公式中用到了原始数据的平均值,对整体信息反映较好.1.4 比重法百分比化:(4)向量归一化(向量规范化或向量标准化):(5)百分比化的特点是每个数据表示为所有数据的线性组合,能够很好地反映整体信息.向量归一化的优点是能够保持分布,且当x>0时,f(x)∈[0,1],能反映整体信息.但这两种方法的缺点是最值不明确,都易受极端值的影响.1.5 标准化(6)特点:处理后数据的均值为0,标准差为1.缺点:需要原始数据符合正态分布,处理后数据含有负值,还改变了原始数据的分布与变异程度,且当s=0,即指标值为常数时不适用.1.6 功效系数法(7)a,b分别为平移系数和放缩系数,M′,m′分别为满意值和不容许值.特点:f(x)∈[a,a+b].功效系数法是极值处理法的一般情况(取a=0,b=1).优点是数据无量纲后能够得到想要的取值区间,但也受极值的影响.2 基于四分位数的线性无量纲化方法及性质2.1 四分位数变换易平涛等[7]使用Monte Carlo方法对基于数据位置分布的无量纲化方法进行了仿真实验,结果表明,针对出现极端值的数据,这种位置分布处理法具有较高的稳定性.因此,为了消除极端值(数据过大或过小)的影响,可以考虑基于数据位置分布的无量纲化方法.而数据的位置分布中以四分位数最为常见,于是笔者引入以下四分位数数据变换.1)四分位距变换(8)四分位距变换将大于该指标样本中位数的数据变为正,样本中位数变为0,小于中位数的数据变为负,体现了“奖优罚劣”的思想.2)下四分数变换(9)3)上四分数变换(10)4)中位数变换(11)由1.1节知,要使数据变换后满足保号性,下四分数变换、上四分数变换和中位数变换的数据都要求大于0.2.2 四分位数变换的性质以上4种四分位数变换都是线性变换,因此可以统一为g(x)=px+q(p>0),则g(x)满足:1)保序性∀x1>x2,g(x1)>g(x2).(12)证明∀x1>x2,有px1+q>px2+q,所以g(x1)>g(x2).2)相对距离不变性[8](13)证明3)上、下四分数变换和中位数变换满足变异系数不变性cv=cv′.(14)证明上、下四分数变换和中位数变换可以统一为g(x)=px,则g(x)的均值和标准差分别为变异系数3 中位数变异系数赋权法进行综合评价时,由于各个指标的重要性不同,需要对每个指标赋权.常见的赋权的方法有专家法、方差倒数赋权、变异系数赋权、复相关系数倒数赋权等[5].变异系数赋权法是根据指标间的变异系数赋权,即权重(15)其中,cvi为各个指标的变异系数.各指标的变异系数为该指标的标准差与均值的比值,即变异系数的应用十分广泛,如Jeferson等[9]基于变异系数对木瓜进行了分类,Amjad Zarei[10]使用变异系数对银行信用风险进行了综合评价.但是当某个指标样本数据的均值的绝对值过大或过小(接近于0)时,cv的取值会过小或过大.除了均值外,中位数也能反映样本的集中趋势,于是笔者基于中位数提出“中位数变异系数”及“中位数变异系数赋权法”.定义1 称为样本的中位数变异系数,其中s、Md分别为样本的标准差和中位数.定义2 设总体中有n个样本,称为总体的中位数变异系数权重,其中为各个样本的中位数变异系数.这种中位数变异系数赋权法反映了各指标在总体中的变异程度,既消除了主观的影响,又避开了极值的影响,使评价结果更加合理可靠.4 实证分析4.1 数据来源盈利能力是评价上市公司优劣程度中最重要的一种能力.为了方便投资者进行股票的筛选以及管理者进行经营决策,需要对上市公司盈利能力综合评价.笔者选取2016年我国16家农业上市公司第三季度财务报告数据中的盈利能力部分建立综合评价模型,数据来源于网易财经,见表1.表1 2016年第三季度我国16家农业上市公司盈利能力数据代码名称主营业务利润率/%销售毛利率/%销售净利率/%总资产收益率/%净资产收益率/%300087荃银高科38.5538.76-4.64-0.95-1.43300143星河生物39.7940.338.080.931.45300189神农基因7.717.75-2.52-0.86-1.77300511雪榕生物19.1719.204.741.342.56600108亚盛集团20.2320.283.820.741.16600313农发种业5.535.550.880.610.91600354敦煌种业12.4412.79-116.30-8.77-18.20600359新农开发5.395.41-13.54-4.73-16.72600371万向德农31.4031.4217.103.927.50600506香梨股份6.296.30-14.20-1.49-1.72600540新赛股份6.586.71-2.08-0.35-0.53600598北大荒76.3976.4832.909.8313.49601118海南橡胶4.995.02-4.63-2.08-3.59000998隆平高科35.2435.257.901.101.91002041登海种业52.1552.1632.936.169.58002772众兴菌业39.9739.9729.264.395.344.2 指标的选取主营业务利润率(X1)、销售毛利率(X2)、销售净利率(X3)、总资产收益率(X4)、净资产收益率(X5).4.3 权重的选取笔者首先采用变异系数赋权法计算各个指标的权重,结果见表2.表2显示指标X5的均值的绝对值远小于其他指标的均值的绝对值,导致其变异系数和权重过大,其他指标的权重接近0,这显然是不合理的.表2 变异系数赋权法结果X1X2X3X4X5x0.25110.2521-0.01270.0061-3.75×10-5cv00.80360.801326.00646.78302113.5577w00.00040.00040.01210.00320.9 840郭亚军[6]认为赋权的基本思想是:权重系数应当反映各指标在总体中的变异程度和对其他指标的影响程度.指标内数据的变异程度越大就赋予越高的权重,和其他指标的相关程度越高就赋予越低的权重.于是笔者采取中位数变异系数赋权与复相关系数赋权[5] 结合(取乘积)的方法对指标进行赋权.表3中第2、3行是中位数变异系数赋权的结果,第4、5行是复相关系数赋权的结果,最终赋权于是各上市公司盈利能力的综合评价得分grade=0.034 4 x1+0.034 3 x2+0.523 1 x3+0.265 3 x4.(16)表3 中位数变异系数赋权与复相关系数赋权结合赋权的结果X1X2X3X4X5cv'1.02451.023414.04076.10357.6210w'0.03440.03430.47100.20470.2556R0.9999870.9999870.9002 610.9824210.963600w″1.00001.00001.11081.01791.0378w0.03440.03430.5 2310.20840.26534.4 无量纲化方法的优选及综合评价结果基于序号总和理论,张卫华[11]提出把各种无量纲化方法得到的排序序号之和求均值作为合理排序序号,再分别计算各种方法与合理排序序号的Spearman等级相关系数.采用逐一排除与合理排序序号相关系数最小的方法,从而更新合理排序. 笔者把7种数据无量纲化方法和基于四分位数的4种方法作为待选方法,最终由文献[11]得到的最佳方法为四分位距变换和中位数变换,这两个方法得到的排序相同,结果见表4.表4 四分位距变换及中位数变换下的综合评价结果名称荃银高科星河生物神农基因雪榕生物亚盛集团农发种业敦煌种业新农开发万向德农香梨股份新赛股份北大荒海南橡胶隆平高科登海种业众兴菌业排名116127891615414101135235 结论基于四分位数,提出了4种不同的四分位数变换,对传统的线性无量纲化方法进行了改进;基于中位数,提出了中位数变异系数及中位数变异系数赋权法,对综合评价中的变异系数赋权法进行了改进.笔者把中位数变异系数赋权与复相关系数赋权相结合,对2016年第三季度我国16家农业上市公司盈利能力数据进行了实证分析,结果表明四分位距变换和中位数变换这两种无量纲化方法更加合理可靠. 参考文献:[1]XU Z J,SONG Y K.Evaluation to Enterprises′ Comprehensive Strength of Patent Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation[J].Advanced Materials Research,2015,1065-1069:2514-2519.[2]RUDY T E,WEINER D K,LIEBER S J,et al.The impact of chronic low backpain on older adults: A comparative study of patients andcontrols[J].Pain,2007,131(3):293-301.[3]WEN K L.A Matlab toolbox for grey clustering and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Advances in Engineering Software,2008,39(2):137-145.[4]邱东.多指标综合评价方法的系统分析[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1991.[5]胡永宏.综合评价方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.[6]郭亚军.综合评价理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.[7]易平涛,李伟伟,郭亚军.线性无量纲化方法的结构稳定性分析[J].系统管理学报,2014,23(1):104-110.[8]郭亚军,易平涛.线性无量纲化方法的性质分析[J].统计研究,2008,25(2): 93-100.[9]FERREIRA J P,SCHMILDT E R,SCHMILDT O,et parison of methods for classification of the coefficient of variation in papaya[J].Rev Ceres Viçosa,2016 ,63(2):138-144.[10]ZAREI A.Measurement of Credit Risk Portfolio of Bank by Method of Coefficient Variation Bound[J].The Social Sciences,2016,11(16):3908-3913.[11]张卫华,赵铭军.指标无量纲化方法对综合评价结果可靠性的影响及其实证分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2005,20(3): 33-36.。
筹资,投资,营运活动业务流程比较分析1.筹资是企业获取资金的过程,通常通过债务或股权发行来实现。
Fundraising is the process of obtaining capital for a business, usually achieved through debt or equity issuance.2.投资是将资金投入到特定项目或资产中,以期获得收益或增值。
Investing is the act of putting capital into a specific project or asset with the expectation of generating a returnor appreciation.3.营运活动是企业日常经营管理的活动,包括生产、销售、采购、人力资源管理等。
Operational activities encompass the daily business management operations such as production, sales, procurement, and human resource management.4.筹资与投资是企业获取资金和运用资金的两个关键环节。
Fundraising and investing are two essential aspects of acquiring and using capital for a business.5.在筹资阶段,企业需要考虑资金需求、融资成本和资本结构等因素。
During the fundraising stage, businesses need to consider factors such as capital requirements, financing costs, and capital structure.6.投资决策需要综合考虑风险、收益、流动性等多个因素。
可转让信用证主要当事人风险及防范可转让信用证主要当事人风险及防范摘要:可转让信用证是信用证的一种特殊形式,随着国际贸易中各种间接贸易的发展,可转让信用证应运而生,为以中间商为中介的贸易方式提供了信用基础,使用的范围逐步扩展到结算、履约、融资等各个领域,在国际经济交往中的地位也日益重要起来。
由于可转让信用证自身的特点,使得可转让信用证当事人除了要面对像其它信用证一般的风险外,还要应对可转让信用证特殊的风险,例如转让行信用风险、第二受益人要面临中间商的换单风险、第一受益人的议付风险等,这些风险已经严重的影响了可转让信用证的运用和发展,阻碍了中间商贸易的发展。
所以对可转让信用证风险的研究有重要的现实意义,特别是对于我们这样一个贸易大国,在金融危机的今天,可转让信用证的作用显得尤其重要,对可转让信用证风险及防范的研究更是迫在眉睫。
新的国际惯例《跟单信用证统一惯例》国际商会第 600 号出版物的出台,对可转让信用证风险控制起到一定的积极作用,但仍存在很多难以解决的问题,对可转让信用证风险及防范的研究也随之提上了日程。
当前,对可转让信用证的研究还比欠缺,主要是对其基本知识的介绍,特别是对于其风险的研究没有一个系统的、规范的体系。
该文首先采用定性分析和对比分析的方法对可转让信用证主要当事人之间的法律关系深入的研究,揭示了风险存在的根源;可转让信用证风险有多种存在形式,第一受益人和进口商面临着供货商的违约风险,第二受益人面临中间商的换单风险,转让行的资格确认的风险等,文章分别从信用风险、操作风险和融资风险三个角度做了详细的论述;而风险的防范是写作的重点,主要从事前的预防、过程的控制和事后的补救三个角度对可转让信用证的主要当事人各自应采取的措施进行了详尽的阐述,以期对实践中可转让信用证风险的防范以及更好的发挥其作用有所帮助。
关键词:可转让信用证 UCP600 风险防范The Risk and Precaution of Main Parties inTransferable Letter of GreditAbstract :Transferable letter of credit is a special form of letters of credit. With the development of a variety of indirect international trade, transferable L/C credit came into being, providing the basic credit for intermediary trade. The use of transferable L/C has expanded gradually to the scope of the settlement, compliance, finance and other fields, and plays an increasingly important position in international business. Owing tothe characteristics of their own, the parties of transferable L/C have to face risk in general as the parties in common L/C, but also to deal with special risks of transferable L/C, such as the credit risk of transferring bank, the risk of broker document changing faced by the second beneficiaries, the risk of the first beneficiaries’ negotiation, etc. These risks have influenced seriously the use and development of transferable L/C, and hinder the development of intermediary trade. So the risk research of transferable L/C has important practical significance, especially for such a large trading nations, the financial crisis at today, the role of transferable letter of credit is particularly important which is urgent. New introduction of international practice UCP600 plays a positive role in risk control of the transferable L/C, but there are still lots of difficult problems, and the study of risk in the transferable L/C also put on the agenda. Primarily depth study of the legal relationship between the parties revealed the existence of the root causes of risk by the method of qualitative analysis and comparative analysis, and made a detailed analysis of the form of risk. The risk can have a variety of forms of existence, the first beneficiary and importers are faced with the risk of supplier default, the second beneficiary is facing a single risk for the brokers, transfer line to confirm the qualifications of the risks. The article discussed in detail separately from credit risk, operational risk and financial risk. And the risk prevention is the focus of writing, It expatiates the main parties’ me asures respectively from the beforehand Process control and subsequent remedial in detail, and wish it helpful prevent the transferable of L/C risk in practice, as well as its better to play its role.Key Words: Transferable letter of credit;UCP600;Risk;Precaution目录第 1 章引言 (1)1.1 本课题研究目的 (1)1.2 本课题研究的意义 (1)1.2.1 对企业来说 (1)1.2.2 从银行的角度来看 (2)1.3 国内外研究概况 (2)1.4 本文的研究思路及创新点 (3)1.4.1 文章的框架 (3)1.4.2 文章的创新点 (5)第 2 章可转让信用证的界定 (5)2.1 可转让信用证的内涵及主要当事人的界定 (5)2.1.1 可转让信用证的内涵 (5)2.1.2 可转让信用证主要当事人的界定 (6)2.2 可转让信用证的特点及分类 (6)2.2.2 可转让信用证的分类 (8)2.3 可转让信用证的操作流程 (10)2.3.1 可转让信用证适用的贸易方式 (10)2.3.2 可转让信用证的操作流程 (10)2.4 可转让信用证与背对背信用证的对比分析 (12)2.4.1 使用程序不同 (12)2.4.2 性质不同 (13)2.4.3 主要当事人的权利、义务以及面临风险不同 (14)第 3 章可转让信用证的性质及主要当事人的法律关系 (14)3.1 可转让信用证的法律性质 (14)3.2 可转让信用证主要当事人的法律关系 (16)3.2.1 开证行和第一受益人的关系 (16)3.2.2 开证行与第二受益人的关系 (17)3.2.3 开证行与转让行的关系 (19)3.2.4 转让行与第一受益人的关系 (20)3.2.5 转让行与第二受益人的关系 (21)3.3.1 案情介绍 (22)3.3.2 案例分析 (23)第 4 章可转让信用证主要当事人所面临风险 (24)4.1 信用风险 (24)4.1.1 开证行的资信风险 (25)4.1.2 第一受益人的资信风险 (25)4.1.3 供应商的资信风险 (25)4.1.4 转让行的资信风险 (26)4.1.5 进口商资信风险 (26)4.1.6 任何两方恶意勾结 (27)4.2 操作风险 (27)4.2.1 转证环节的风险 (28)4.2.2 换单环节 (31)4.2.3 交单环节 (33)4.3 融资风险 (34)4.3.1 第一受益人 (35)4.3.2 第二受益人 (35)第 5 章UCP600 中关于可转让信用证条款的变化 (36)5.1 UCP600 中可转让信用证条款的变化 (36)5.1.1 可转让信用证的定义 (36)5.1.2 转让行的规定 (36)5.1.3 费用的承担更加明确 (36)5.1.4 保兑 (36)5.1.5 第二受益人的交单必须经过转让行 (36)5.1.6 保护没有过错的第二受益人 (37)5.2 UCP600 相关变化对主要当事人利益的影响 (37)5.2.1 关于“开证行可以充当转让行”的影响分析 (37)5.2.3 关于“保兑的反映”的影响分析 (38)5.2.4 关于“第二受益人交单条款”的影响分析 (39)5.2.5 关于“保护没有过错第二受益人”的影响分析 (39)第 6 章可转让信用证主要当事人的风险防范 (39)6.1 事前的风险预防 (40)6.1.1 从转让行的角度 (40)6.1.2 从中间商的角度 (41)6.1.3 从供货商的角度 (42)6.1.4 从进口商的角度 (44)6.2 过程中风险的控制 (45)6.2.1 从转让行的角度 (45)6.2.2 从中间商的角度 (46)6.2.3 从供应商的角度 (47)6.2.4 从进口商的角度 (50)6.3 事后的风险补救 (50)6.3.1 从转让行的角度 (50)6.3.2 从中间商的角度 (52)6.3.3 从供货商的角度 (52)6.3.4 从进口商的角度 (53)6.4 国际贸易中可转让信用证的风险及防范案例1 (53)6.4.1 案情介绍 (53)6.4.2 案例分析 (55)结论 (56)参考文献 (58)第 1 章引言1.1 本课题研究目的可转让信用证由于其灵活性和优点,目前在国际贸易中逐步的被广泛使用起来。
文章编号:1003-207(2002)01-0017-06信用风险模型比较分析梁世栋,郭人人,李勇,方兆本(中国科学技术大学商学院统计与金融系,安徽合肥230026)摘 要:本文分析了现代信用风险模型迅速发展的主要原因,对主要派别的代表性模型用数学语言进行了总结,比较分析了各模型的原理及优缺点,并简要介绍了各模型的实证效果。
关键词:信用风险;违约概率;风险价值中图分类号:C931:F 224 文献标识码:A收稿日期:2001-05-29作者简介:梁世栋(1977-),男(汉族),江苏启东人,中国科技大学商学院,博士生,研究方向:信用风险评估,固定收益债券定价.1 现代信用风险模型迅速发展的原因近年来,信用风险的计量和管理方法发生了革命性的变化。
与过去的信用管理相对滞后和难以适应市场变化的特点相对比,新一代的金融工程专家将建模技术和分析方法应用到这一领域,产生了一批新技术和新思想。
随之而来,在传统信用评级方法基础上产生了一批信用风险模型,这些模型受到了业内人士的广泛关注。
信用风险模型主要是通过数学手段对历史数据进行统计分析,从而对有关群体或个体的信用水平进行定性或者定量评估,并对其未来行为的信用风险进行预测,提供信用风险防范的有效依据和手段。
信用风险模型的提出和发展之所以受到广泛关注,其原因可以从以下几个方面来说明:1.1 公司倒闭的结构性增加尽管近年来的经济萧条是在不同国家的不同时间发生,但对大多数关于倒闭的统计表明,与以前的经济萧条时期相比公司倒闭有显著增加。
从某种程度上说,世界范围内的破产有了一个持久的或者说结构性增加。
这可能是由于全球性竞争引起的,但不管怎么说,准确的信用风险分析显得比过去更加重要。
1.2 脱媒效应(Disintermediation)随着资本市场扩张并涉及到中小企业,银行作为融资中介的地位削弱,银行和其他传统金融机构对获得贷款的公司(或者借贷者)的规模要求有越来越小的趋势,其信用等级要求也越来越低。
资本市场的成长对传统金融机构的信用投资组合产生了一种 赢家咒语 (Winner s curse)效应。
1.3 竞争更加激烈尽管贷款的平均质量下降了,但利息收益特别是在大规模贷款市场上的利息收益反而变得非常少,也就是说来自贷款的风险与风险回报之间的比率升高了。
产生这种情况的原因很多,但其中最重要的一个因素是来自争夺低质量借贷者的激烈竞争,例如金融公司的大多数借款活动都集中在高风险、低质量的贷款市场上。
1.4 押品价值降低及其波动增加在亚洲金融危机发生的同时,在一些发达国家如瑞士、日本发生了银行危机。
这些危机表明有形资产价值和不动产的价值是很难通过清算来估计的。
抵押品价值的不确定性越大,贷款的风险就越大。
实际上,现在世界范围的通贷紧缩问题的焦点已集中到有形资产的价值上来。
1.5 资产负债表之外的衍生产品的增长由于衍生工具市场的显著扩展,信用风险的增加必然带来对贷款帐目以外信用的分析需求。
在美国大银行中,由场外交易(OTC)的掉期和远期等衍生工具带来的表外风险的名义价值比他们贷款帐目价值的10倍还多。
实际上,表外信用风险的增长是国际结算银行(Bank for International Settlements BIS)在1993年规范风险资本的主要原因。
1.6 信息技术的进步计算机系统的发展以及相关信息技术的发展,例如历史贷款数据库的发展,使得银行和其他金融机构有可能检测高效的建模技术,除了能分析贷款损失和价值分布函数及其分布的尾部形状,银行还第10卷 第1期2002年 2月 中国管理科学Chinese Journal of Management ScienceVol.10,No.1Feb., 2002可以利用现代组合理论的模型和技术对贷款组合进行积极而有效的管理。
1.7 BIS 对风险资本的规定除了以上六个原因之外,银行发展新的信用风险模型最大的动力来自对BIS 订立的借贷资本强制规定的不满。
现行的BIS 政策可以称为 万能 (One size fits all)政策。
不管贷款的规模、到期日和借方的信用水平如何,对私人部分的所有贷款都要遵循相同的8%资本保证金。
因此,一个濒临破产的公司和一个AAA 级的企业在贷款方面的待遇是相同的。
很多大公司提议允许他们将内部信用风险模型用于计算并划分借贷者的信用等级。
从1998年起,国际结算银行开始准许10家主要大银行使用市场内部风险模型,用于一般性的和特殊性的市场风险度量,并每天报告交易计划的一般资本需求。
现代信用模型的出现给借贷市场带来了显著的变化,主要体现在大量信用衍生工具的出现和赊销市场的出乎意料的增长。
银行等金融机构第一次能够积极地、准确地控制它们的信用风险,从而改善经济界或者银行自身的风险状况。
当然,现有的信用风险模型也并不是完美的,并且除了模型本身的性能原因之外,在应用模型的过程中也有一定的困难。
(1)参数选择问题(2)风险遗漏(3)信用风险的复杂性(4)数据空白有关信用风险的数据相对缺乏,许多时候只能利用相似情况的数据类推。
这使得严重阻碍了实证研究的发展,许多实证研究都只得利用模拟数据,偶尔的基于实际数据的实证研究的结果也不理想。
数据空白还在于无法定出通行的数据标准,使来自不同源头的数据便于比较和分析。
2 模型的分类及代表性模型比较分析根据不同的分类标准,现有的信用风险模型可以有很多不同的分类方法,比如,以模型所使用的数据为标准和以模型引用的基本理论为标准等。
一般来说,现代信用风险模型可分为以下两类:(1)盯市的投资组合理论模型(Mark to market portfolio theoretic models),比如JP Morgan 的Credit Metrics 和KM V 公司提出的以M erton 模型为基础的信用风险模型。
(2)违约模式模型(Default mode models),比如CSFP 的Credit Risk+模型和M c Kinsey 的Credit Portfolio View 投资组合方法。
违约模式模型是用来估计在给定期限内资产组合的违约风险概率分布。
盯市模型是在允许信用度下降(只要没有完全违约)的情况下,估计资产组合价值在未来的分布,从而产生了对投资组合风险价值(Value-At-Risk,VaR)的度量。
本文将分别介绍这两类模型中的几个很重要、很有代表性的模型。
2.1 Credit Metrics 模型JP Morgan 的Credit Metrics 模型在1997年首次发表并被广泛推广。
Credit M etrics 模型的主要工作是估计贷款和债券类金融产品的组合在一定期限内(通常是一年)的价值变化远期分布,模型的数据基础是来自于评级公司的信用级别转移概率矩阵(表1)。
这里,假设分布是与转移矩阵有关,债务的利率期限结构是确定的。
Credit Metrics 模型假定:(1)市场风险与信用风险无关。
Credit M etrics 在假设未来的价值和风险完全由远期分布曲线决定时,也就同时承认了没有市场风险的存在,在模型中唯一的变量是信用。
(2)把债务人按评级公司的转移矩阵分成若干个信用等级,即模型是离散的。
而且假定在同一信用级别中的债务人具有完全相同的转移矩阵和违约概率,实际违约率等于历史统计平均的违约率。
这些假定是Credit M etrics 模型最大的不足,这些假设在很多情况下并不成立或不完全成立,因此限制了模型的实际应用。
而这些假定不得不作出的原因正表1 Moody s Investors Servics:One year transition matrixInitial Rating Rating at year end(%)Aaa Aa ABaa Ba B Caa Default Aaa 93 405 94 0 640 02Aa 1 6190 557 460 260 090 0100 02A 0 072 2892 444 630 450 120 010Baa 0 050 265 5188 484 760 710 080 15Ba 0 020 050 425 1686 915 910 241 29B 00 040 130 546 3584 221 916 81Caa0 622 054 0869 2024 06Source:Lea Carty of M oody s Investors S ervice18 中国管理科学 2002年是其应用的数据基础 评级公司的信用级别转移概率矩阵 是离散的,历史统计平均的。
(3)风险期限是固定的,一般为一年。
这实际上也是受制于评级机构的转移矩阵,这些转移矩阵的期限为一年。
(4)为了计算组合的多样化对结果的影响,需要估计所有债务人两两之间信用变化的相关性。
但是这些相关性无法直接获得,Credit Metrics模型是利用资产回报的联合分布来估计的,资产回报的联合分布又是用所有者权益价值的分布来代替。
在计算过程中对各债务人的资产结构和资本回报的产生过程也作了大量简化假设。
(5)每个信用级别对应一条零息票收益曲线,而且一般在违约事件中设恢复率(数据来自评级机构),即违约事件发生时,资产不是全部损失,未损失部分等于资产 恢复率。
(6)违约事件发生在债务到期时。
对于单笔债务,Credit M etrics利用转移矩阵和零息票收益曲线非常简单的算出它的远期价值分布,多元组合因为考虑相关性而有所不同,我们以二元模型为例来简单说明Credit M etrics模型主要的过程:估计信用资产组合的远期分布。
CreditMetrics套用了M erton(1974)期权定价模型中股价波动模型,正如下文所见,只是套用。
对所有同一利率水平的所有债务人,如果用P Def表示债务人的违约概率,则有:P Def=P r(V t<=V def)其中,V t表示公司资产,并服从标准的几何布朗运动,V T=V0ex p - 22T+ TZ TZ T服从N(0,1), , 2为公司的资产收益率的均值和方差。
V T在时刻T的期望值E(V T)=V0exp( t)则违约发生在Z T的概率满足:P Def=Pr(V t V Def)=P rln(V Def/V0)-[ -( 2/2)]ttZ t=P r Z t -ln(V0/V Def)+[ -( 2/2)]ttN(-d2)这里,d2表示违约距离(Distance to Default):d2=-ln(V Def/V0)-[ -( 2/2)]tt在B S公式中,d2为风险中性利率,而在这里,d2是公司资产的实际回报期望,所以这两者本质上是有区别的。
通过转移矩阵和几何布朗运动,可以算出每个信用级别资产回报的下限点Z T。