投资回报率PPT课件

PART I
Investment Returns, Equity Value, and Financial Statements
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1
Gaining the Understanding to do Fundamental Analysis
Chapter 3 Understanding investment returns and how analysts’ styles are determined by their approach to forecasting returns
Chapter 6
Understanding how forecasts of income statements and balance sheets produce a valuation
With this understanding proceed to
·Analysis of information (Part II)
Chapter 4 Understanding valuation models that value forecasted
returns
Chapter 5
Understanding how earnings are related to returns and how valuations based on forecasted earnings work (or don’t work)
This Chapter
This chapter explains what returns are, distinguishes normal and abnormal returns, and explains how analysts specialize in forecasting normal and abnormal returns
What has been the historical experience in
equity investing?
Link to Next Chapter
Chapter 4 will show how valuation models are
constructed to measure the value of forecasted returns
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3
0 CF1 CF2 CF3 Cash Flows
Investment Horizon:h Flow
• For an investment in equity:
P0 Initial Price
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2
3
T-1
0
d1
d2
d3
dT-1
Dividends
Link to Web Page
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What you will learn in this chapter
• How investment returns are calculated • The difference between normal and abnormal returns • What an efficient market price means • What an arbitrage opportunity is • The difference between active and passive investment • The difference between an alpha and a beta • How asset pricing models work (in outline) • How screening strategies work (and don’t work) • What a contrarian strategy is • How fundamental analysis differs from screening and
contrarian analysis • How various stock selecti.on strategies have worke5d in
the past
The Structure of Investment Returns
• For a terminal investment:
I0 Initial Investment
Investment Horizon: When stock is sold T
Selling Price (if sold at T) + Dividend at T PT+dT
• For a one-year equity investment
Payoff: P1 d1 Return: P1d1P0
·Forecasting and Valuation (Part III)
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Chapter 3
Investment Returns
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3
Investment Returns
Link to Previous Chapter
Chapter 1 established that forecasting returns is at the heart of fundamental analysis
Rate-of-Return: P 1 d 1 P 0P 0
Expected Return: P1d1P0
Expected Rate-of-Return: P 1 d 1 P 0P 0
Required Payoff per dollar:
Required Rate-of-Return: 1
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The required return is also called the normal return or the cost of capital
How are returns calculated?
What is a normal return
and an abnormal return?
How might an analyst gain an advantage in forecasting normal or
abnormal returns?