White Paper on International Economy and Trade 2011 Summary
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80% 9.6%
8.2%
Emerging Emerging economies countries 6.5%
5.4% 5% 4% 2.8% 1.4% 6.6% 23.3% 4.5% 4.5% 3.3% 2.5%
World average
4.4%
EU 1.8%
1.5% 9.7%
Other advanced EU countries Other emerging EU countries
Projection Outlook
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.2% 10.6%
Other advanced EU countries ies
2.1% 2.8% 2.2% 8.6%
Other emerging EU countries ies
6.0%
24.4%
1.3% 1.3% 3.8% 1.4% 5.8% 4.6% 3.7% 8.7%
16.2%
1.4%
EU 28.3%
ス ロ ベ ニ ア
イタリア
オランダ
ギリシャ
ベ ル ギー
キプロ ス
フ ランス
ス ペ イン
Australia A
Slovenia lovenia
Slovakia lovakia
Belgium
Portugal ortugal
Finland inland
Cyprus
(%) 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16
August 2011 Policy Planning and Research Office, Trade Policy Bureau, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
1-1 While emerging economies are driving the world economy, advanced economies are slow to recover
Increasing current account imbalances within the euro area Government Deficit-to-GDP ratio of euro area countries (2009)
Netherlands N Luxemburg uxemburg
White Paper on International Economy and Trade 2011 Summary
Overcoming g the earthquake q disaster, , and restoring g and strengthening global economic networks
($ billion) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000
Projection Outlook
Other emerging countries economies Russia Other advanced economies countries South Korea Republic of Korea Germany Japan China USA UK Other advanced economies countries Brazil India Other emerging economies
-5% 5%
Note: Data for "other advanced economies countries" and "other emerging/ developing economies countries" was estimated by METI based on IMF data. Source: Compiled using data from IMF, "World Economic Outlook," April 2011
Advanced Ad Advanced eco economies countries
1.6%1.7% 1.1% 1.6% 3.6% 3.3% 8.7% 5.3% 4.1%
2.4%
3.3% 2.4%
Brazil India
9.3%
17.5%
Other advanced Other advanced countries economies
USA
Japan
South Korea Republic of Korea
Germany
France
EU 25.9%
UK
Italy
China
Other emerging countries economies
1.4%
-5%
Note: Data for "other advanced countries" and "other emerging/developing countries" was estimated by METI based on IMF data.
South Korea Republic of Korea
economies mies Other advanced countries es
USA
Japan
Germany
(%) 10%
20%
40%
2011
Vertical scale: GDP growth outlook for 2011 (in black) Horizontal scale: Share of global GDP in 2010 by country (in red)
(Year)
Source: Compiled using data from IMF, "World Economic Outlook," April 2011
3
1-3 European economy has recovered moderately, though failing to clear away concerns about worsening of debt crisis
○IMF's projection of current account balances indicates that a decline in imbalances cannot be expected in the medium term. ○ Such factors as defaults by unsustainable budget deficits, instability of financial institutions, and further inflation by increased capital inflows to emerging economies could exert downward pressure on the world economy.
Source: Compiled using data from IMF, "World Economic Outlook," April 2011
Advanced countries economies
Hale Waihona Puke 66.0%34.0%Emerging countries economies
2
1-2 Global imbalances temporarily declined through the financial crisis, but are increasing again.
○In 2010, the European economy as a whole recovered moderately. However, the situation differs considerably between European countries, and current account imbalances within the euro area are gradually increasing. ○ Concerns about worsening of the European debt crisis are not cleared away. In addition to the requests from Greece, Ireland, and Portugal for support from the IMF and EU, there is uncertainty over self-reliant fiscal reconstruction of other European countries facing difficult fiscal conditions. Establishment of a reliable relief system (expansion of the EFSE) will be the key.
France
UK
Italy
60%
India Brazil
China
economies onomies Other emerging countries untries
Advanced countries economies
68.8%
31.2%
Emerging countries economies
Emerging economies have expanded their share
8.2%
Emerging Emerging economies countries 6.5%
5.4% 5% 4% 2.8% 1.4% 6.6% 23.3% 4.5% 4.5% 3.3% 2.5%
World average
4.4%
EU 1.8%
1.5% 9.7%
Other advanced EU countries Other emerging EU countries
Projection Outlook
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.2% 10.6%
Other advanced EU countries ies
2.1% 2.8% 2.2% 8.6%
Other emerging EU countries ies
6.0%
24.4%
1.3% 1.3% 3.8% 1.4% 5.8% 4.6% 3.7% 8.7%
16.2%
1.4%
EU 28.3%
ス ロ ベ ニ ア
イタリア
オランダ
ギリシャ
ベ ル ギー
キプロ ス
フ ランス
ス ペ イン
Australia A
Slovenia lovenia
Slovakia lovakia
Belgium
Portugal ortugal
Finland inland
Cyprus
(%) 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16
August 2011 Policy Planning and Research Office, Trade Policy Bureau, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
1-1 While emerging economies are driving the world economy, advanced economies are slow to recover
Increasing current account imbalances within the euro area Government Deficit-to-GDP ratio of euro area countries (2009)
Netherlands N Luxemburg uxemburg
White Paper on International Economy and Trade 2011 Summary
Overcoming g the earthquake q disaster, , and restoring g and strengthening global economic networks
($ billion) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000
Projection Outlook
Other emerging countries economies Russia Other advanced economies countries South Korea Republic of Korea Germany Japan China USA UK Other advanced economies countries Brazil India Other emerging economies
-5% 5%
Note: Data for "other advanced economies countries" and "other emerging/ developing economies countries" was estimated by METI based on IMF data. Source: Compiled using data from IMF, "World Economic Outlook," April 2011
Advanced Ad Advanced eco economies countries
1.6%1.7% 1.1% 1.6% 3.6% 3.3% 8.7% 5.3% 4.1%
2.4%
3.3% 2.4%
Brazil India
9.3%
17.5%
Other advanced Other advanced countries economies
USA
Japan
South Korea Republic of Korea
Germany
France
EU 25.9%
UK
Italy
China
Other emerging countries economies
1.4%
-5%
Note: Data for "other advanced countries" and "other emerging/developing countries" was estimated by METI based on IMF data.
South Korea Republic of Korea
economies mies Other advanced countries es
USA
Japan
Germany
(%) 10%
20%
40%
2011
Vertical scale: GDP growth outlook for 2011 (in black) Horizontal scale: Share of global GDP in 2010 by country (in red)
(Year)
Source: Compiled using data from IMF, "World Economic Outlook," April 2011
3
1-3 European economy has recovered moderately, though failing to clear away concerns about worsening of debt crisis
○IMF's projection of current account balances indicates that a decline in imbalances cannot be expected in the medium term. ○ Such factors as defaults by unsustainable budget deficits, instability of financial institutions, and further inflation by increased capital inflows to emerging economies could exert downward pressure on the world economy.
Source: Compiled using data from IMF, "World Economic Outlook," April 2011
Advanced countries economies
Hale Waihona Puke 66.0%34.0%Emerging countries economies
2
1-2 Global imbalances temporarily declined through the financial crisis, but are increasing again.
○In 2010, the European economy as a whole recovered moderately. However, the situation differs considerably between European countries, and current account imbalances within the euro area are gradually increasing. ○ Concerns about worsening of the European debt crisis are not cleared away. In addition to the requests from Greece, Ireland, and Portugal for support from the IMF and EU, there is uncertainty over self-reliant fiscal reconstruction of other European countries facing difficult fiscal conditions. Establishment of a reliable relief system (expansion of the EFSE) will be the key.
France
UK
Italy
60%
India Brazil
China
economies onomies Other emerging countries untries
Advanced countries economies
68.8%
31.2%
Emerging countries economies
Emerging economies have expanded their share
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