MERCER为美国保险业协会做的绝密HR分析报告

Standardized Cost 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
CPI vs. CPI Medical Care 400 300 200 100
0
Year
Mercer Human Resource Consulting
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Annual CPI Trend U.S. health care costs rise, despite continuing economic recession
10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2
Double-Digit Increase for Second Year in a Row Per employee costs in excess of $5,600 per year
$6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,703 $3,000
-2.9% $3,594
+6.2% $3,817
CPI-All Urban Consumers
CPI-Medical Care
CPI-Medical Care CPI Overall Ratio MC/Overall
1990 9.0% 5.4% 1.7
1991 8.7% 4.2% 2.1
1992 7.4% 3.0% 2.5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
5.9% 4.8% 4.5% 3.5% 2.8%

When will Medical Costs be Double t 6 4 2 0
Year
Mercer Human Resource Consulting
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Legislation
Medicare Prescription Drugs
– If made into law, will have major impact on retiree benefits and strategies – Initial confusion aside, should have positive impact on retiree plans – Expect cost shifting to negatively impact active plans
Mercer Human Resource Consulting
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ADEA Issues Impact on retiree medical coverage
Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA) prohibits discrimination against persons age 40 or older in terms and conditions of employment
Medical Care CPI
Overall CPI
Data based on January 1 CPI values
Mercer Human Resource Consulting
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Employers’ Cost Increases Out-Pace Other Indicators Largest increase since 1990 (all employers)

Plan must incur equal costs for older and younger workers
Third and Sixth Circuit Courts reach different conclusions
EEOC reviewing ADEA regulations
Marketplace Changes
Source: CMS
Medical Trends
Pop Quiz How many years will it take gross medical costs to double,
assuming no specific employer interventions or national health care? – 10 or more –9 –8 –7 –6 – 5 or fewer
Agenda
The Environment – Medical Trends – Legislation – Marketplace Changes – Population Demographics – Employer Outlook
The Catch-22 Paths Away from Traditional Delivery: Two Camps Opportunities Along Path 2 The Answer Additional Topics
Still few viable products for pre-65 in individual market that overcome access and affordability issues.
ADEA Issues Impact on retiree medical coverage

Results for Employers with 500 or more lives
Aggregate Health Care Spending (1980 – 2010) Government portion of payments increasing; total projected to be over $2 trillion by 2009
美国保险业协会HR分析 报告(英文版)
2021年7月20日星期二
Agenda
The Environment The Catch-22 Paths Away from Traditional Delivery: Two Camps Opportunities Along Path 2 The Answer Additional Topics
20.00% 18.00% 16.00%
18.6% 17.1%
16.7%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00% 6.9%
6.00%
12.1% 10.1% 8.0%
14.7%
11.2%
8.1% 7.3% 6.1%
Employers
CPI-Medical CPI-All Items
4.00% 2.00%
CPI-All Urban Consumers
CPI-Medical Care
CPI-Medical Care
1990 9.0%
1991 8.7%
1992 7.4%
1993 5.9%
1994 4.8%
1995 4.5%
1996 3.5%
1997 2.8%
1998 3.2%
1999 3.5%
2000 3.9%