Analysis of Binomial congestion control

计量经济学术语A校正R2（Adjusted R-Squared）：多元回归分析中拟合优度的量度，在估计误差的方差时对添加的解释变量用一个自由度来调整。

对立假设（Alternative Hypothesis）：检验虚拟假设时的相对假设。

AR（1）序列相关（AR(1) Serial Correlation）：时间序列回归模型中的误差遵循AR（1）模型。

渐近置信区间（Asymptotic Confidence Interval）：大样本容量下近似成立的置信区间。

渐近正态性（Asymptotic Normality）：适当正态化后样本分布收敛到标准正态分布的估计量。

渐近性质（Asymptotic Properties）：当样本容量无限增长时适用的估计量和检验统计量性质。

渐近标准误（Asymptotic Standard Error）：大样本下生效的标准误。

渐近t 统计量（Asymptotic t Statistic）：大样本下近似服从标准正态分布的t 统计量。

渐近方差（Asymptotic Variance）：为了获得渐近标准正态分布，我们必须用以除估计量的平方值。

渐近有效（Asymptotically Efficient）：对于服从渐近正态分布的一致性估计量，有最小渐近方差的估计量。

渐近不相关（Asymptotically Uncorrelated）：时间序列过程中，随着两个时点上的随机变量的时间间隔增加，它们之间的相关趋于零。

衰减偏误（Attenuation Bias）：总是朝向零的估计量偏误，因而有衰减偏误的估计量的期望值小于参数的绝对值。

自回归条件异方差性（Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, ARCH）：动态异方差性模型，即给定过去信息，误差项的方差线性依赖于过去的误差的平方。

一阶自回归过程[AR（1）]（Autoregressive Process of Order One [AR(1)]）：一个时间序列模型，其当前值线性依赖于最近的值加上一个无法预测的扰动。

统计学专业英语词汇AAbsolute deviation,绝对离差Absolute number,绝对数Absolute residuals,绝对残差Acceleration array,加速度立体阵Acceleration in an arbitrary direction,任意方向上的加速度Acceleration normal,法向加速度Acceleration space dimension,加速度空间的维数Acceleration tangential,切向加速度Acceleration vector,加速度向量Acceptable hypothesis,可接受假设Accumulation,累积Accuracy,准确度Actual frequency,实际频数Adaptive estimator,自适应估计量Addition,相加Addition theorem,加法定理Additivity,可加性Adjusted rate,调整率Adjusted value,校正值Admissible error,容许误差Aggregation,聚集性Alternative hypothesis,备择假设Among groups,组间Amounts,总量Analysis of correlation,相关分析Analysis of covariance,协方差分析Analysis of regression,回归分析Analysis of time series,时间序列分析Analysis of variance,方差分析Angular transformation,角转换ANOVA（analysis of variance）,方差分析ANOVA Models,方差分析模型Arcing,弧/弧旋Arcsine transformation,反正弦变换Area under the curve,曲线面积AREG,评估从一个时间点到下一个时间点回归相关时的误差ARIMA,季节和非季节性单变量模型的极大似然估计Arithmetic grid paper,算术格纸Arithmetic mean,算术平均数Arrhenius relation,艾恩尼斯关系Assessing fit,拟合的评估Associative laws,结合律Asymmetric distribution,非对称分布Asymptotic bias,渐近偏倚Asymptotic efficiency,渐近效率Asymptotic variance,渐近方差Attributable risk,归因危险度Attribute data,属性资料Attribution,属性Autocorrelation,自相关Autocorrelation of residuals,残差的自相关Average,平均数Average confidence interval length,平均置信区间长度Average growth rate,平均增长率BBar chart,条形图Bar graph,条形图Base period,基期Bayes theorem, 贝叶斯定理Bell-shaped curve,钟形曲线Bernoulli distribution,伯努力分布Best-trim estimator,最好切尾估计量Bias,偏性Binary logistic regression,二元逻辑斯蒂回归Binomial distribution,二项分布Bisquare,双平方Bivariate Correlate,二变量相关Bivariate normal distribution,双变量正态分布Bivariate normal population,双变量正态总体Biweight interval,双权区间Biweight M-estimator,双权M估计量Block,区组/配伍组BMDP(Biomedical computer programs),BMDP统计软件包Box plots,箱线图/箱尾图Break down bound,崩溃界/崩溃点CCanonical correlation,典型相关Caption,纵标目Case-control study,病例对照研究Categorical variable,分类变量Catenary,悬链线Cauchy distribution,柯西分布Cause-and-effect relationship,因果关系Cell,单元Censoring,终检Center of symmetry,对称中心Centering and scaling,中心化和定标Central tendency,集中趋势Central value,中心值CHAID-χ2AutomaticInteractionDetector,卡方自动交互检测Chance,机遇Chance error,随机误差Chance variable,随机变量Characteristic equation,特征方程Characteristic root,特征根Characteristic vector,特征向量Chebshev criterion of fit,拟合的切比雪夫准则Chernoff faces,切尔诺夫脸谱图Chi-square test,卡方检验/χ2检验Choleskey decomposition,乔洛斯基分解Circle chart,圆图Class interval,组距Class mid-value,组中值Class upper limit,组上限Classified variable,分类变量Cluster analysis,聚类分析Cluster sampling,整群抽样Code,代码Coded data,编码数据Coding,编码Coefficient of contingency,列联系数Coefficient of determination,决定系数Coefficient of multiple correlation,多重相关系数Coefficient of partial correlation,偏相关系数Coefficient of production-moment correlation,积差相关系数Coefficient of rank correlation,等级相关系数Coefficient of regression,回归系数Coefficient of skewness,偏度系数Coefficient of variation,变异系数Cohort study,队列研究Column,列Column effect,列效应Column factor,列因素Combination pool,合并Combinative table,组合表Common factor,共性因子Common regression coefficient,公共回归系数Common value,共同值Common variance,公共方差Common variation,公共变异Communality variance,共性方差Comparability,可比性Comparison of bathes,批比较Comparison value,比较值Compartment model,分部模型Compassion,伸缩Complement of an event,补事件Complete association,完全正相关Complete dissociation,完全不相关Complete statistics,完备统计量Completely randomized design,完全随机化设计Composite event,联合事件/复合事件Concavity,凹性Conditional expectation,条件期望Conditional likelihood,条件似然Conditional probability,条件概率Conditionally linear,依条件线性Confidence interval,置信区间Confidence limit,置信限Confidence lower limit,置信下限Confidence upper limit,置信上限Confirmatory Factor Analysis,验证性因子分析Confirmatory research,证实性实验研究Confounding factor,混杂因素Conjoint,联合分析Consistency,相合性Consistency check,一致性检验Consistent asymptotically normal estimate,相合渐近正态估计Consistent estimate,相合估计Constrained nonlinear regression,受约束非线性回归Constraint,约束Contaminated distribution,污染分布Contaminated Gausssian,污染高斯分布Contaminated normal distribution,污染正态分布Contamination,污染Contamination model,污染模型Contingency table,列联表Contour,边界线Contribution rate,贡献率Control,对照Controlled experiments,对照实验Conventional depth,常规深度Convolution,卷积Corrected factor,校正因子Corrected mean,校正均值Correction coefficient,校正系数Correctness,正确性Correlation coefficient,相关系数Correlation index,相关指数Correspondence,对应Counting,计数Counts,计数/频数Covariance,协方差Covariant,共变Cox Regression, Cox回归Criteria for fitting,拟合准则Criteria of least squares,最小二乘准则Critical ratio,临界比Critical region,拒绝域Critical value,临界值Cross-over design,交叉设计Cross-section analysis,横断面分析Cross-section survey,横断面调查Cross tabs,交叉表Cross-tabulation table,复合表Cube root,立方根Cumulative distribution function,累计分布函数Cumulative probability,累计概率Curvature,曲率/弯曲Curve fit,曲线拟和Curve fitting,曲线拟合Curvilinear regression,曲线回归Curvilinear relation,曲线关系Cut-and-try method,尝试法Cycle,周期Cyclist,周期性DD test, D检验Data acquisition,资料收集Databank,数据库Data capacity,数据容量Data deficiencies,数据缺乏Data handling,数据处理Data manipulation,数据处理Data processing,数据处理Data reduction,数据缩减Data set,数据集Data sources,数据来源Data transformation,数据变换Data validity,数据有效性Data-in,数据输入Data-out,数据输出Dead time,停滞期Degree of freedom,自由度Degree of precision,精密度Degree of reliability,可靠性程度Degression,递减Density function,密度函数Density of datapoints,数据点的密度Dependent variable,应变量/依变量/因变量Depth,深度Derivative matrix,导数矩阵Derivative-free methods,无导数方法Design,设计Determinacy,确定性Determinant,行列式Determinant,决定因素Deviation,离差Deviation from average,离均差Diagnostic plot,诊断图Dichotomous variable,二分变量Differential equation,微分方程Direct standardization,直接标准化法Discrete variable,离散型变量Discriminant,判断Discriminant analysis,判别分析Discriminant coefficient,判别系数Discriminant function,判别值Dispersion,散布/分散度Disproportional,不成比例的Disproportionate sub-class numbers,不成比例次级组含量Distribution free,分布无关性/免分布Distribution shape,分布形状Distribution-free method,任意分布法Distributive laws,分配律Disturbance,随机扰动项Dose response curve,剂量反应曲线Double blind method,双盲法Double blind rial,双盲试验Double exponential distribution,双指数分布Double logarithmic,双对数Downward rank,降秩Dual-space plot,对偶空间图DUD,无导数方法Duncan's new multiple range method,新复极差法/Duncan 新法EEffect,实验效应Eigen value,特征值Eigen vector,特征向量Ellipse,椭圆Empirical distribution,经验分布Empirical probability,经验概率单位Enumeration data,计数资料Equal sun-class number,相等次级组含量Equally likely,等可能Equal variance,同变性Error,误差/错误Error of estimate,估计误差Error type I,第一类错误Error type II,第二类错误Estimand,被估量Estimated error mean squares,估计误差均方Estimated error sum of squares,估计误差平方和Euclidean distance,欧式距离Event,事件Exceptional data point,异常数据点Expectation plane,期望平面Expectation surface,期望曲面Expected values,期望值Experiment,实验Experimental sampling,试验抽样Experimental unit,试验单位Explanatory variable,说明变量/解释变量Exploratory data analysis,探索性数据分析Explore Summarize,探索-摘要Exponential curve,指数曲线Exponential growth,指数式增长Exsooth,指数平滑方法Extended fit,扩充拟合Extra parameter,附加参数Extra polation,外推法Extreme observation,末端观测值Extremes,极端值/极值FF distribution, F分布F test, F检验Factor,因素/因子Factor analysis,因子分析Factor score,因子得分Factorial,阶乘Factorial design,析因试验设计False negative,假阴性False negative error,假阴性错误Family of distributions,分布族Family of estimators,估计量族Fanning,扇面Fatality rate,病死率Field investigation,现场调查Field survey,现场调查Finite population,有限总体Finite-sample,有限样本First derivative,一阶导数First principal component,第一主成分First quartile,第一四分位数Fisher information,费雪信息量Fitted value,拟合值Fitting a curve,曲线拟合Fixed base,定基Fluctuation,随机起伏Forecast,预测Four fold table,四格表Fourth,四分点Fraction blow,左侧比率Fractional error,相对误差Frequency,频率Frequency polygon,频数多边图Frontier point,界限点Function relationship,泛函关系GGamma distribution,伽玛分布Gauss increment,高斯增量Gaussian distribution,高斯分布/正态分布Gauss-Newton increment,高斯-牛顿增量General census,全面普查GENLOG(Generalized liner models),广义线性模型Geometric mean,几何平均数Gini's mean difference,基尼均差GLM(General liner models),通用线性模型Goodness of fit,拟和优度/配合度Gradient of determinant,行列式的梯度Graeco-Latin square,希腊拉丁方Grand mean,总均值Gross errors,重大错误Gross-error sensitivity,大错敏感度Group averages,分组平均Grouped data,分组资料Guessed mean,假定平均数HHalf-life,半衰期Hampel M-estimators,汉佩尔M估计量Happenstance,偶然事件Harmonic mean,调和均数Hazard function,风险均数Hazard rate,风险率Heading,标目Heavy-tailed distribution,重尾分布Hessian array,海森立体阵Heterogeneity,不同质Heterogeneity of variance,方差不齐Hierarchical classification,组内分组Hierarchical clustering method,系统聚类法High-leverage point,高杠杆率点HILOGLINEAR,多维列联表的层次对数线性模型Hinge,折叶点Histogram,直方图Historical cohort study,历史性队列研究Holes,空洞HOMALS,多重响应分析Homogeneity of variance,方差齐性Homogeneity test,齐性检验Huber M-estimators,休伯M估计量Hyperbola,双曲线Hypothesis testing,假设检验Hypothetical universe,假设总体IImpossible event,不可能事件Independence,独立性Independent variable,自变量Index,指标/指数Indirect standardization,间接标准化法Individual,个体Inference band,推断带Infinite population,无限总体Infinitely great,无穷大Infinitely small,无穷小Influence curve,影响曲线Information capacity,信息容量Initial condition,初始条件Initial estimate,初始估计值Initial level,最初水平Interaction,交互作用Interaction terms,交互作用项Intercept,截距Interpolation,内插法Inter quartile range,四分位距Interval estimation,区间估计Intervals of equal probability,等概率区间Intrinsic curvature,固有曲率Invariance,不变性Inverse matrix,逆矩阵Inverse probability,逆概率Inverse sine transformation,反正弦变换Iteration,迭代JJacobian determinant,雅可比行列式Joint distribution function,联合分布函数Joint probability,联合概率Joint probability distribution,联合概率分布KK means method,逐步聚类法Kaplan-Meier,评估事件的时间长度Kaplan-Merier chart, Kaplan-Merier图Kendall's rank correlation, Kendall等级相关Kinetic,动力学Kolmogorov-Smirnove test,柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验Kruskal and Wallis test, Kruskal及Wallis检验/多样本的秩和检验/H检验Kurtosis,峰度LLack of fit,失拟Ladder of powers,幂阶梯Lag,滞后Large sample,大样本Large sample test,大样本检验Latin square,拉丁方Latin square design,拉丁方设计Leakage,泄漏Least favorable configuration,最不利构形Least favorable distribution,最不利分布Least significant difference,最小显著差法Least square method,最小二乘法Least-absolute-residuals estimates,最小绝对残差估计Least-absolute-residuals fit,最小绝对残差拟合Least-absolute-residuals line,最小绝对残差线Legend,图例L-estimator,L估计量L-estimator of location,位置L估计量L-estimator of scale,尺度L估计量Level,水平Life expectance,预期期望寿命Life table,寿命表Life table method,生命表法Light-taile distribution,轻尾分布Likelihood function,似然函数Likelihood ratio,似然比Line graph,线图Linear correlation,直线相关Linear equation,线性方程Linear programming,线性规划Linear regression,直线回归 /线性回归Linear trend,线性趋势Loading,载荷Location and scale equi variance,位置尺度同变性Location equi variance,位置同变性Location invariance,位置不变性Location scale family,位置尺度族Log rank test,时序检验Logarithmic curve,对数曲线Logarithmic normal distribution,对数正态分布Logarithmic scale,对数尺度Logarithmic transformation,对数变换Logic check,逻辑检查Logistic distribution,逻辑斯蒂分布Logit transformation, Logit转换LOGLINEAR,多维列联表通用模型Lognormal distribution,对数正态分布Lost function,损失函数Low correlation,低度相关Lower limit,下限Lowest-attained variance,最小可达方差LSD,最小显著差法的简称Lurking variable,潜在变量MMain effect,主效应Major heading,主辞标目Marginal density function,边缘密度函数Marginal probability,边缘概率Marginal probability distribution,边缘概率分布Matched data,配对资料Matched distribution,匹配过分布Matching of distribution,分布的匹配Matching of transformation,变换的匹配Mathematical expectation,数学期望Mathematical model,数学模型Maximum L-estimator,极大L 估计量Maximum likelihood method,最大似然法Mean,均数Mean squares between groups,组间均方Mean squares within group,组内均方Means (Compare means),均值-均值比较Median,中位数Median effective dose,半数效量Median lethal dose,半数致死量Median polish,中位数平滑Median test,中位数检验Minimal sufficient statistic,最小充分统计量Minimum distance estimation,最小距离估计Minimum effective dose,最小有效量Minimum lethal dose,最小致死量Minimum variance estimator,最小方差估计量MINITAB,统计软件包Minor heading,宾词标目Missing data,缺失值Model specification,模型的确定Modeling Statistics ,模型统计Models for outliers,离群值模型Modifying the model,模型的修正Modulus of continuity,连续性模Morbidity,发病率Most favorable configuration,最有利构形Multidimensional Scaling (ASCAL),多维尺度/多维标度Multinomial Logistic Regression ,多项逻辑斯蒂回归Multiple comparison,多重比较Multiple correlation ,复相关Multiple covariance,多元协方差Multiple linear regression,多元线性回归Multiple response ,多重选项Multiple solutions,多解Multiplication theorem,乘法定理Multiresponse,多元响应Multi-stage sampling,多阶段抽样Multivariate T distribution,多元T分布Mutual exclusive,互不相容Mutual independence,互相独立NNatural boundary,自然边界Natural dead,自然死亡Natural zero,自然零Negative correlation,负相关Negative linear correlation,负线性相关Negatively skewed,负偏Newman-Keuls method, q检验NK method, q检验No statistical significance,无统计意义Nominal variable,名义变量Nonconstancy of variability,变异的非定常性Nonlinear regression,非线性相关Nonparametric statistics,非参数统计Nonparametric test,非参数检验Normal deviate,正态离差Normal distribution,正态分布Normal equation,正规方程组Normal ranges,正常范围Normal value,正常值Nuisance parameter,多余参数/讨厌参数Null hypothesis,无效假设Numerical variable,数值变量OObjective function,目标函数Observation unit,观察单位Observed value,观察值One sided test,单侧检验One-way analysis of variance,单因素方差分析One way ANOVA ,单因素方差分析Open sequential trial,开放型序贯设计Optrim, 优切尾Optrim efficiency,优切尾效率Order statistics,顺序统计量Ordered categories,有序分类Ordinal logistic regression ,序数逻辑斯蒂回归Ordinal variable,有序变量Orthogonal basis,正交基Orthogonal design,正交试验设计Orthogonality conditions,正交条件ORTHOPLAN,正交设计Outlier cutoffs,离群值截断点Outliers,极端值OVERALS ,多组变量的非线性正规相关Overshoot,迭代过度PPaired design,配对设计Paired sample,配对样本Pairwise slopes,成对斜率Parabola,抛物线Parallel tests,平行试验Parameter,参数Parametric statistics,参数统计Parametric test,参数检验Partial correlation,偏相关Partial regression,偏回归Partial sorting,偏排序Partials residuals,偏残差Pattern,模式Pearson curves,皮尔逊曲线Peeling,退层Percent bar graph,百分条形图Percentage,百分比Percentile,百分位数Percentile curves,百分位曲线Periodicity,周期性Permutation,排列P-estimator,P估计量Pie graph,饼图Pitman estimator,皮特曼估计量Pivot,枢轴量Planar,平坦Planar assumption,平面的假设PLANCARDS,生成试验的计划卡Point estimation,点估计Poisson distribution,泊松分布Polishing,平滑Polled standard deviation,合并标准差Polled variance,合并方差Polygon,多边图Polynomial,多项式Polynomial curve,多项式曲线Population,总体Population attributable risk,人群归因危险度Positive correlation,正相关Positively skewed,正偏Posterior distribution,后验分布Power of a test,检验效能Precision,精密度Predicted value,预测值Preliminary analysis,预备性分析Principal component analysis,主成分分析Prior distribution,先验分布Prior probability,先验概率Probabilistic model,概率模型probability,概率Probability density,概率密度Product moment,乘积矩/协方差Profile trace,截面迹图Proportion,比/构成比Proportion allocation in stratified random sampling,按比例分层随机抽样Proportionate,成比例Proportionate sub-class numbers,成比例次级组含量Prospective study,前瞻性调查Proximities,亲近性Pseudo F test,近似F检验Pseudo model,近似模型Pseudo sigma,伪标准差Purposive sampling,有目的抽样QQR decomposition, QR分解Quadratic approximation,二次近似Qualitative classification,属性分类Qualitative method,定性方法Quantile-quantile plot,分位数-分位数图/Q-Q图Quantitative analysis,定量分析Quartile,四分位数Quick Cluster,快速聚类RRadix sort,基数排序Random allocation,随机化分组Random blocks design,随机区组设计Random event,随机事件Randomization,随机化Range,极差/全距Rank correlation,等级相关Rank sum test,秩和检验Rank test,秩检验Ranked data,等级资料Rate,比率Ratio,比例Raw data,原始资料Raw residual,原始残差Rayleigh's test,雷氏检验Rayleigh's Z,雷氏Z值Reciprocal,倒数Reciprocal transformation,倒数变换Recording,记录Redescending estimators,回降估计量Reducing dimensions,降维Re-expression,重新表达Reference set,标准组Region of acceptance,接受域Regression coefficient,回归系数Regression sum of square,回归平方和Rejection point,拒绝点Relative dispersion,相对离散度Relative number,相对数Reliability,可靠性Reparametrization,重新设置参数Replication,重复Report Summaries,报告摘要Residual sum of square,剩余平方和Resistance,耐抗性Resistant line,耐抗线Resistant technique,耐抗技术R-estimator of location,位置R估计量R-estimator of scale,尺度R估计量Retrospective study,回顾性调查Ridge trace,岭迹Ridit analysis , Ridit分析Rotation,旋转Rounding,舍入Row,行Row effects,行效应Row factor,行因素RXC table, RXC表SSample,样本Sample regression coefficient,样本回归系数Sample size,样本量Sample standard deviation,样本标准差Sampling error,抽样误差SAS(Statistical analysis system ),SAS统计软件包Scale,尺度/量表Scatter diagram,散点图Schematic plot,示意图/简图Score test,计分检验Screening,筛检SEASON,季节分析Second derivative,二阶导数Second principal component,第二主成分SEM (Structural equation modeling),结构化方程模型Semi-logarithmic graph,半对数图Semi-logarithmic paper,半对数格纸Sensitivity curve,敏感度曲线Sequential analysis,贯序分析Sequential data set,顺序数据集Sequential design,贯序设计Sequential method,贯序法Sequential test,贯序检验法Serial tests,系列试验Short-cut method,简捷法Sigmoid curve, S形曲线Sign function,正负号函数Sign test,符号检验Signed rank,符号秩Significance test,显著性检验Significant figure,有效数字Simple cluster sampling,简单整群抽样Simple correlation,简单相关Simple random sampling,简单随机抽样Simple regression,简单回归simple table,简单表Sine estimator,正弦Single-valued estimate, 单值估计Singular matrix, 奇异矩阵Skewed distribution, 偏斜分布Skewness, 偏度Slash distribution, 斜线分布Slope, 斜率Smirnov test, 斯米尔诺夫检验Source of variation, 变异来源Spearman rank correlation, 斯皮尔曼等级相关Specific factor, 特殊因子Specific factor variance, 特殊因子方差Spectra , 频谱Spherical distribution, 球型正态分布Spread, 展布SPSS(Statistical package for the social science), SPSS统计软件包Spurious correlation, 假性相关Square root transformation, 平方根变换Stabilizing variance, 稳定方差Standard deviation, 标准差Standard error, 标准误Standard error of difference, 差别的标准误Standard error of estimate, 标准估计误差Standard error of rate, 率的标准误Standard normal distribution, 标准正态分布Standardization, 标准化Starting value, 起始值Statistic, 统计量Statistical control, 统计控制Statistical graph, 统计图Statistical inference, 统计推断Statistical table, 统计表Steepest descent, 最速下降法Stem and leaf display, 茎叶图Step factor, 步长因子Stepwise regression, 逐步回归Storage, 存Strata, 层（复数）Stratified sampling, 分层抽样Stratified sampling, 分层抽样Strength, 强度Stringency, 严密性Structural relationship, 结构关系Studentized residual, 学生化残差/t化残差Sub-class numbers, 次级组含量Subdividing, 分割Sufficient statistic, 充分统计量Sum of products, 积和Sum of squares, 离差平方和Sum of squares about regression, 回归平方和Sum of squares between groups, 组间平方和Sum of squares of partial regression, 偏回归平方和Sure event, 必然事件Survey, 调查Survival, 生存分析Survival rate, 生存率Suspended root gram, 悬吊根图Symmetry, 对称Systematic error, 系统误差Systematic sampling, 系统抽样Tags, 标签Tail area, 尾部面积Tail length, 尾长Tail weight, 尾重Tangent line, 切线Target distribution, 目标分布Taylor series, 泰勒级数Test(检验)Test of linearity, 线性检验Tendency of dispersion, 离散趋势Testing of hypotheses, 假设检验Theoretical frequency, 理论频数Time series, 时间序列Tolerance interval, 容忍区间Tolerance lower limit, 容忍下限Tolerance upper limit, 容忍上限Torsion, 扰率Total sum of square, 总平方和Total variation, 总变异Transformation, 转换Treatment, 处理Trend, 趋势Trend of percentage, 百分比趋势Trial, 试验Trial and error method, 试错法Tuning constant, 细调常数Two sided test, 双向检验Two-stage least squares, 二阶最小平方Two-stage sampling, 二阶段抽样Two-tailed test, 双侧检验Two-way analysis of variance, 双因素方差分析Two-way table, 双向表Type I error, 一类错误/α错误Type II error, 二类错误/β错误UMVU, 方差一致最小无偏估计简称Unbiased estimate, 无偏估计Unconstrained nonlinear regression , 无约束非线性回归Unequal subclass number, 不等次级组含量Ungrouped data, 不分组资料Uniform coordinate, 均匀坐标Uniform distribution, 均匀分布Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimate, 方差一致最小无偏估计Unit, 单元Unordered categories, 无序分类Unweighted least squares, 未加权最小平方法Upper limit, 上限Upward rank, 升秩Vague concept, 模糊概念Validity, 有效性VARCOMP (Variance component estimation), 方差元素估计Variability, 变异性Variable, 变量Variance, 方差Variation, 变异Varimax orthogonal rotation, 方差最大正交旋转Volume of distribution, 容积W test, W检验Weibull distribution, 威布尔分布Weight, 权数Weighted Chi-square test, 加权卡方检验/Cochran检验Weighted linear regression method, 加权直线回归Weighted mean, 加权平均数Weighted mean square, 加权平均方差Weighted sum of square, 加权平方和Weighting coefficient, 权重系数Weighting method, 加权法W-estimation, W估计量W-estimation of location, 位置W估计量Width, 宽度Wilcoxon paired test, 威斯康星配对法/配对符号秩和检验Wild point, 野点/狂点Wild value, 野值/狂值Winsorized mean, 缩尾均值Withdraw, 失访Youden's index, 尤登指数Z test, Z检验Zero correlation, 零相关Z-transformation, Z变换欢迎您的下载，资料仅供参考！致力为企业和个人提供合同协议，策划案计划书，学习资料等等打造全网一站式需求11欢迎下载。

CFA重点知识梳理（AB通过⼀级测验）CFA重点知识梳理(AB通过⼀级测验)————————————————————————————————作者：————————————————————————————————⽇期：Ethic重点知识梳理⼀、前⾔部分（⼀）相关AMC Asset Manager Code of professional conduct（⼆）The code of ethics1.以⾼风亮节出现在所有⼈⾯前（integrity、competence、diligence、respect）2.把职业道德和客户利益凌驾于⾃⾝利益之上。

3.投资建议有理有据有节4.感化他⼈5.维护市场6.提⾼专业能⼒⼆、条款易混条款：条款区别Misrepresentation Professionaliam条款之下，包括所有不正当陈述，重点是吹⽜、遗漏、剽窃Performance presentation Loyal to client条款之下，重点是对客户的业绩披露Communicate with clients and prospective 投资⾏为条款之下，重点是跟客户交流时分清事实和观点Fair dealing 客户内部之间的公平Priority of transaction 客户、⾃⼰、雇主之间的优先顺序Additional compensation arrangement 对雇主忠诚的条款下⾯，重点是给雇主批露客户给的奖励等Disclosure of conflict 其他相关冲突的披露I professionalismI（A）Knowledge of law1.知道相关法律2.遵守更严格法律3.不能“理应”知道还犯法4.怀疑犯法——咨询——上报主管——上报监管部门——脱离5.如果咨询错误，依然不能免责I（B）Independence and objectivity不能受到威逼利诱1.上市公司：不能接受会影响客观独⽴性的礼物，只要在别⼈眼中认为会影响就不⾏（如gift、favor、Job referral 、invitation to lavish function）不能接受奢侈的旅⾏安排、可以接受commercial、common 的差旅安排⼀般的⼩纪念品可以接受2.客户：要disclose给其他客户及雇主，并收到雇主的书⾯同意才可以收，如果仅仅告诉雇主但没有得到同意就收礼物，违反了IV（B）additional compensation arrangement既没告诉也没得到书⾯同意违反IV（B）、I（B）、V（A）3.Outside manager ：不能收礼物，要选择物美价廉的，尤其是管理能⼒强的4.Issuer-paid research可以接受flat fee 任何与结论相关的bonus不能收5.M&A、IBD及buyside：不能受到此三⽅的压⼒，可以考虑放⼊restricted list上⾯，只陈述事实不发表评论。

Aabscissa 横坐标absence rate 缺勤率absolute number 绝对数absolute value 绝对值accident error 偶然误差accumulated frequency 累积频数alternative hypothesis 备择假设analysis of data 分析资料analysis of variance(ANOV A) 方差分析arith-log paper 算术对数纸arithmetic mean 算术均数assumed mean 假定均数arithmetic weighted mean 加权算术均数asymmetry coefficient 偏度系数average 平均数average deviation 平均差Bbar chart 直条图、条图bias 偏性binomial distribution 二项分布biometrics 生物统计学bivariate normal population 双变量正态总体Ccartogram 统计图case fatality rate(or case mortality) 病死率census 普查chi-sguare(X2) test 卡方检验central tendency 集中趋势class interval 组距classification 分组、分类cluster sampling 整群抽样coefficient of correlation 相关系数coefficient of regression 回归系数coefficient of variability(or coefficieut of variation) 变异系数collection of data 收集资料column 列（栏）combinative table 组合表combined standard deviation 合并标准差combined variance(or poolled variance) 合并方差complete survey 全面调查completely correlation 完全相关completely random design 完全随机设计confidence interval 可信区间，置信区间confidence level 可信水平，置信水平confidence limit 可信限，置信限constituent ratio 构成比，结构相对数continuity 连续性control 对照control group 对照组coordinate 坐标correction for continuity 连续性校正correction for grouping 归组校正correction number 校正数correction value 校正值correlation 相关，联系correlation analysis 相关分析correlation coefficient 相关系数critical value 临界值cumulative frequency 累积频率Ddata 资料degree of confidence 可信度，置信度degree of dispersion 离散程度degree of freedom 自由度degree of variation 变异度dependent variable 应变量design of experiment 实验设计deviation from the mean 离均差diagnose accordance rate 诊断符合率difference with significance 差别不显著difference with significance 差别显著discrete variable 离散变量dispersion tendency 离中趋势distribution 分布、分配Eeffective rate 有效率eigenvalue 特征值enumeration data 计数资料equation of linear regression 线性回归方程error 误差error of replication 重复误差error of type II Ⅱ型错误，第二类误差error of type I Ⅰ型错误，第一类误差estimate value 估计值event 事件experiment design 实验设计experiment error 实验误差experimental group 实验组extreme value 极值Ffatality rate 病死率field survey 现场调查fourfold table 四格表freguency频数freguency distribution 频数分布GGaussian curve 高斯曲线geometric mean 几何均数grouped data 分组资料Hhistogram直方图homogeneity of variance 方差齐性homogeneity test of variances 方差齐性检验hypothesis test 假设检验hypothetical universe 假设总体Iincidence rate 发病率incomplete survey 非全面调检indepindent variable 自变量indivedual difference 个体差异infection rate 感染率inferior limit 下限initial data 原始数据inspection of data 检查资料intercept 截距interpolation method 内插法interval estimation 区间估计inverse correlation 负相关Kkurtosis coefficient 峰度系数Llatin sguare design 拉丁方设计least significant difference 最小显著差数least square method 最小平方法，最小乘法leptokurtic distribution 尖峭态分布leptokurtosis 峰态，峭度linear chart 线图linear correlation 直线相关linear regression 直线回归linear regression eguation 直线回归方程link relative 环比logarithmic normal distribution 对数正态分布logarithmic scale 对数尺度lognormal distribution 对数正态分布lower limit 下限Mmatched pair design 配对设计mathematical statistics 数理统计（学）maximum value 极大值mean 均值mean of population 总体均数mean square 均方mean variance 均方，方差measurement data 讲量资料median 中位数medical statistics 医学统计学mesokurtosis 正态峰method of least squares 最小平方法，最小乘法method of grouping 分组法method of percentiles 百分位数法mid-value of class 组中值minimum value 极小值mode 众数moment 动差，矩morbidity 患病率mortality 死亡率Nnatality 出生率natural logarithm 自然对数negative correlation 负相关negative skewness 负偏志no correlation 无相关non-linear correlation 非线性相关non-parametric statistics 非参数统计normal curve 正态曲线normal deviate 正态离差normal distribution 正态分布normal population 正态总体normal probability curve 正态概率曲线normal range 正常范围normal value 正常值normal kurtosis 正态峰normality test 正态性检验nosometry 患病率null hypothesis 无效假设，检验假设Oobserved unit 观察单位observed value 观察值one-sided test 单测检验one-tailed test 单尾检验order statistic 顺序统计量ordinal number 秩号ordinate 纵坐标Ppairing data 配对资料parameter参数percent 百分率percentage 百分数，百分率percentage bar chart 百分条图percentile 百分位数pie diagram 园图placebo 安慰剂planning of survey 调查计划point estimation 点估计population 总体，人口population mean 总体均数population rate 总体率population variance 总体方差positive correlation 正相关positive skewness 正偏态power of a test 把握度，检验效能prevalence rate 患病率probability 概率，机率probability error 偶然误差proportion 比，比率prospective study 前瞻研究prospective survey 前瞻调查public health statistics 卫生统计学Qquality eontrol 质量控制quartile 四分位数Rrandom 随机random digits 随机数字random error 随机误差random numbers table 随机数目表random sample 随机样本random sampling 随机抽样random variable 随机变量randomization 随机化randomized blocks 随机区组,随机单位组randomized blocks analysis of variance 随机单位组方差分析randomized blocks design 随机单位组设计randomness 随机性range 极差、全距range of normal values 正常值范围rank 秩,秩次,等级rank correlation 等级相关rank correlation coefficent 等级相关系数rank-sum test 秩和检验rank test 秩(和)检验ranked data 等级资料rate 率ratio 比recovery rate 治愈率registration 登记regression 回归regression analysis 回归分析regression coefficient 回归系数regression eguation 回归方程relative number 相对数relative ratio 比较相对数relative ratio with fixed base 定基比remainder error 剩余误差replication 重复retrospective survey 回顾调查Ridit analysis 参照单位分析Ridit value 参照单位值Ssample 样本sample average 样本均数sample size 样本含量sampling 抽样sampling error 抽样误差sampling statistics 样本统计量sampling survay 抽样调查scaller diagram 散点图schedule of survey 调查表semi-logarithmic chart 半对数线图semi-measursement data 半计量资料semi-guartile range 四分位数间距sensitivity 灵敏度sex ratio 性比例sign test 符号检验significance 显著性,意义significance level 显著性水平significance test 显著性检验significant difference 差别显著simple random sampling 单纯随机抽样simple table 简单表size of sample 样本含量skewness 偏态slope 斜率sorting data 整理资料sorting table 整理表sources of variation 变异来源square deviation 方差standard deviation(SD) 标准差standard error (SE) 标准误standard error of estimate 标准估计误差standard error of the mean 均数的标准误standardization 标准化standardized rate 标化率standardized normal distribution 标准正态分布statistic 统计量statistics 统计学statistical induction 统计图statistical inference 统计归纳statistical map 统计推断statistical method 统计地图statistical survey 统计方法statistical table 统计调查statistical test 统计表statistical treatment 统计检验stratified sampling 统计处理stochastic variable 分层抽样sum of cross products of 随机变量deviation from mean 离均差积和sum of ranks 秩和sum of sguares of deviation from mean 离均差平方和superior limit 上限survival rate 生存率symmetry对称(性)systematic error 系统误差systematic sampling 机械抽样Tt-distribution t分布t-testt检验tabulation method 划记法test of normality 正态性检验test of one-sided 单侧检验test of one-tailed 单尾检验test of significance 显著性检验test of two-sided 双侧检验test of two-tailed 双尾检验theoretical frequency 理论频数theoretical number 理论数treatment 处理treatment factor 处理因素treatment of date 数据处理two-factor analysis of variance 双因素方差分析two-sided test 双侧检验two-tailed test 双尾检验type I error 第一类误差type II error 第二类误差typical survey 典型调查Uu test u检验universe 总体,全域ungrouped data 未分组资料upper limit 上限Vvariable 变量variance 方差,均方variance analysis 方差分析variance ratio 方差比variate 变量variation coefficient 变异系数velocity of development 发展速度velocity of increase 增长速度Wweight 权数weighted mean 加权均数Zzero correlation 零相关unit onedivision of labor 劳动分工commodity money 商品货币legal tender 法定货币fiat money 法定通货a medium of exchange交换媒介legal sanction法律制裁face value面值liquid assets流动资产illiquidl assets非流动资产the liquidity scale 流动性指标real estate 不动产checking accounts,demand deposit,checkable deposit 活期存款time deposit 定期存款negotiable order of withdrawal accounts 大额可转让提款单money market mutual funds 货币市场互助基金repurchase agreements 回购协议certificate of deposits存单bond 债券stock股票travelers\'checks 旅行支票small-denomination time deposits小额定期存款large-denomination time deposits大额定期存款bank overnight repurchase agreements 银行隔夜回购协议bank long-term repurchase agreements 银行长期回购协议thrift institutions 存款机构financial institution 金融机构commercial banks商业银行a means of payment 支付手段a store of value储藏手段a standard of value价值标准unit tworeserve 储备note 票据discount贴现circulate流通central bank 中央银行the Federal Reserve System联邦储备系统credit union 信用合作社paper currency 纸币credit creation 信用创造branch banking 银行分行制unit banking 单一银行制out of circulation 退出流通capital stock股本at par以票面价值计electronic banking电子银行banking holding company 公司银行the gold standard金本位the Federal Reserve Board 联邦储备委员会the stock market crash 股市风暴reserve ratio 准备金比率unit threedeficit 亏损roll展期wholesale批发default不履约auction拍卖collateralize担保markup价格的涨幅dealer交易员broker经纪人pension funds 养老基金face amount面值commerical paper商业票据banker\'s acceptance银行承兑汇票Fed fund 联邦基金eurodollar欧洲美元treasury bills 国库券floating-rate 浮动比率fixed-rate 固定比率default risk 拖欠风险credit rating信誉级别tax collection税收money market货币市场capital market资本市场original maturity 原始到期期限surplus funds过剩基金回复引用举报返回顶部2#admin发表于2006-11-24 08:49 |只看该作者unit four管理员premium 升水 discount 贴水par 平价deficit 赤字future 期货capital movements 资本流动foreign exchange dealings 外汇交易balance of payment 国际收支eurodollar market 欧洲美元市场spot rate 即期汇率 forward rate 远期汇率 cross rate 交叉汇率 arbitrage transation 套汇交易space arbitrage 地点套汇 time arbitrage 时间套汇 interest arbitrage 套利 direct quotation 直接标价法indirect quotation 间接标价法decimal system 十进制 long position 多头 short position 空头 swedish kronor 瑞典克郎 Sfr 瑞士法郎DM 德国马克FFr 法国法郎Dkr 丹麦克郎Nkr 挪威克郎Yen 日元Can ＄加拿大元 ￡英镑Lit 意大利里拉 Aus ＄澳大利亚元 DG 荷兰盾BF 比利时法郎unit fivethe society for worldwidetelecommunication(SWIFT)环球银行金融电讯协会the clearing houseinterbank paymentssystem(CHIPS)纽约银行同业清算系统over-the-counter market场外交易市场invoice发票，发货单portfolio债务，投资组合turnover总成交额not-for-profitcooperative非盈利性组织triangular arbitrage三角套汇unit sixquota 配额guaratee保函fixed exchange rate固定汇率balance of paymentdeficit国际收支逆差international reserve国际储备credit tranche drawing信贷份额借款credit tranche信贷份额credit tranche facilities信贷份额贷款便利international payment国际收支buffer stock缓冲存货extended facilities补偿信贷便利government borrowing国债；政府借款price fluctuation价格波动，价格涨落export earning 出口收益enlarged access policy 延期进入政策credit policy信用政策组，债务调整Bretton Woods Agreement布雷顿森林协议International MonetaryFund 国际货币基金组织International Bank forResonstruction andDevelopment(IBRD)国际复兴与开发银行InternationalDevelopment Association（I.D.A.)国际开发协会International FincanceCorporation（I.F.C.)国际金融公司financial intermediary金融中介concessional terms特惠条件trade credit商业信贷earning capacity收益能力Bank for InternationalSettlements（B.I.S.)国际清算银行financial settlement财务清算接着来：unit sevensyndication辛迪加underwrite包销，认购hedge对冲买卖、套期保值innovation到期交易spread利差principal本金swap掉期交易eurobond market 欧洲债券市场euronote欧洲票据Federal Reserve Bank(FRB)联邦储备银行unsecured credit无担保贷款定期支付存款lead bank牵头银行neogotiabletime deposit议付定期存款inter-bank money market银行同业货币市场medium term loan 中期贷款syndicated credit银团贷款merchant bank商业银行portfolio management 有价债券管理lease financing租赁融资note issurance facility票据发行安排bearer note不记名票价underwriting facility包销安排floating-rate note 浮动利率票据bond holder债券持持有者London Interbank OfferedRate(LIBOR)伦敦同业优惠利率back-up credit line备用信贷额promissorynote(P.N..p/n)本票revolving cerdit 循环信用证，即revolving letterof creditnon interest-bearingreserves无息储备金interest rate controls 利率管制interest rate ceiling 利率上限interest rate floor 利率下限deposit insurance 存款保险。

(留给这次的数学建模美国赛吧)Aabsolute value 绝对值accept 接受 acceptable region 接受域additivity 可加性 adjusted 调整的 alternative hypothesis 对立假设analysis 分析analysis of covariance 协方差分析analysis of variance 方差分析arithmetic mean 算术平均值association 相关性assumption 假设assumption checking 假设检验availability 有效度average 均值Bbalanced 平衡的band 带宽bar chart 条形图beta-distribution 贝塔分布between groups 组间的bias 偏倚binomial distribution 二项分布binomial test 二项检验Ccalculate 计算case 个案category 类别center of gravity 重心central tendency 中心趋势chi-square distribution 卡方分布chi-square test 卡方检验classify 分类cluster analysis 聚类分析c oefficient 系数coefficient of correlation 相关系数collinearity 共线性column 列compare 比较comparison 对照components 构成，分量compound 复合的confidence interval 置信区间con sistency 一致性constant 常数continuous variable 连续变量control charts 控制图correlation 相关covariance 协方差covariance matrix 协方差矩阵critical point 临界点critical value 临界值crosstab 列联表cubic 三次的，立方的cubic term 三次项cumulative distribution function 累加分布函数curve estimation 曲线估计Ddata 数据default 默认的definition 定义deleted residual 剔除残差density function 密度函数d ependent variable 因变量description 描述design of experiment 试验设计deviations 差异df. (degree of freedom) 自由度diagnostic 诊断dimension 维discrete variable 离散变量discrimin ant function 判别函数discriminatory analysis 判别分析distance 距离distribution 分布D-optim al design D-优化设计Eeaqual 相等effects of interaction 交互效应efficiency 有效性eigenvalue 特征值equal size 等含量equation 方程error 误差estimate 估计estimation of parameters 参数估计estimations 估计量evaluate 衡量exact value 精确值expectation 期望expected value 期望值exponential 指数的exponential distributon 指数分布extreme value 极值F factor 因素，因子factor analysis 因子分析factor score 因子得分factorial designs 析因设计factorial experiment 析因试验fit 拟合fitted line 拟合线fitted value 拟合值fixed model 固定模型fixed variable 固定变量fractional factorial design 部分析因设计frequency 频数F-test F 检验full factorial design 完全析因设计function 函数Ggamma distribution 伽玛分布geometric mean 几何均值group 组Hharmomic mean 调和均值heterogeneity 不齐性histogram 直方图homogeneity 齐性homogen eity of variance 方差齐性hypothesis 假设hypothesis test 假设检验Iindependence 独立independent variable 自变量independent-samples 独立样本index 指数ind ex of correlation 相关指数interaction 交互作用interclass correlation 组内相关interval estimat e 区间估计intraclass correlation 组间相关inverse 倒数的iterate 迭代Kkernal 核Kolmogorov-Smirnov test柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米诺夫检验kurtosis 峰度Llarge sample problem 大样本问题layer 层least-significant difference 最小显著差数least-squar e estimation 最小二乘估计least-square method 最小二乘法level 水平level of significance 显著性水平leverage value 中心化杠杆值life 寿命life test 寿命试验likelihood function 似然函数likelihood ratio test 似然比检验linear 线性的linear estimator 线性估计linear model 线性模型linear regression 线性回归linear relation 线性关系linear term 线性项logarithmic 对数的log arithms 对数logistic 逻辑的lost function 损失函数Mmain effect 主效应matrix 矩阵maximum 最大值maximum likelihood estimation 极大似然估计mean squared deviation(MSD) 均方差mean sum of square 均方和measure 衡量media 中位数M-estimator M估计minimum 最小值missing values 缺失值mixed model 混合模型mo de 众数model 模型Monte Carle method 蒙特卡罗法moving average 移动平均值multicollineari ty 多元共线性multiple comparison 多重比较multiple correlation 多重相关multiple correlation coefficient 复相关系数multiple correlation coefficient 多元相关系数multiple regression analysis 多元回归分析multiple regression equation 多元回归方程multiple response 多响应multivariat e analysis 多元分析Nnegative relationship 负相关nonadditively 不可加性nonlinear 非线性nonlinear regression 非线性回归noparametric tests 非参数检验normal distribution 正态分布null hypothesis 零假设n umber of cases 个案数Oone-sample 单样本one-tailed test 单侧检验one-way ANOVA 单向方差分析one-way classificat ion 单向分类optimal 优化的optimum allocation 最优配制order 排序order statistics 次序统计量origin 原点orthogonal 正交的outliers 异常值Ppaired observations 成对观测数据paired-sample 成对样本parameter 参数parameter estimatio n 参数估计partial correlation 偏相关partial correlation coefficient 偏相关系数partial regressio n coefficient 偏回归系数percent 百分数percentiles 百分位数pie chart 饼图point estimate 点估计poisson distribution 泊松分布polynomial curve 多项式曲线polynomial regression 多项式回归polynomials 多项式positive relationship 正相关power 幂P-P plot P-P概率图predict 预测predicted value 预测值prediction intervals 预测区间principal component analysis 主成分分析proability 概率probability density function 概率密度函数probit analysis 概率分析proportion 比例Qqadratic 二次的Q-Q plot Q-Q概率图quadratic term 二次项quality control 质量控制quantitati ve 数量的，度量的quartiles 四分位数Rrandom 随机的random number 随机数random number 随机数random sampling 随机取样ra ndom seed 随机数种子random variable 随机变量randomization 随机化range 极差rank 秩r ank correlation 秩相关rank statistic 秩统计量regression analysis 回归分析regression coefficie nt 回归系数regression line 回归线reject 拒绝rejection region 拒绝域relationship 关系reliab ility 可*性repeated 重复的report 报告，报表residual 残差residual sum of squares 剩余平方和response 响应risk function 风险函数robustness 稳健性root mean square 标准差row 行run 游程run test 游程检验Sample 样本sample size 样本容量sample space 样本空间sampling 取样sampling inspection 抽样检验scatter chart 散点图S-curve S形曲线separately 单独地sets 集合sign test 符号检验significance 显著性significance level 显著性水平significance testing 显著性检验significant 显著的，有效的significant digits 有效数字skewed distribution 偏态分布skewness 偏度small s ample problem 小样本问题smooth 平滑sort 排序soruces of variation 方差来源space 空间s pread 扩展square 平方standard deviation 标准离差standard error of mean 均值的标准误差standardization 标准化standardize 标准化statistic 统计量statistical quality control 统计质量控制std. residual 标准残差stepwise regression analysis 逐步回归stimulus 刺激strong assumpt ion 强假设stud. deleted residual 学生化剔除残差stud. residual 学生化残差subsamples 次级样本sufficient statistic 充分统计量sum 和sum of squares 平方和summary 概括，综述Ttable 表t-distribution t分布test 检验test criterion 检验判据test for linearity 线性检验test o f goodness of fit 拟合优度检验test of homogeneity 齐性检验test of independence 独立性检验test rules 检验法则test statistics 检验统计量testing function 检验函数time series 时间序列tolerance limits 容许限total 总共，和transformation 转换treatment 处理trimmed mean 截尾均值true value 真值t-test t检验two-tailed test 双侧检验Uunbalanced 不平衡的unbiased estimation 无偏估计unbiasedness 无偏性uniform distribution 均匀分布Vvalue of estimator 估计值variable 变量variance 方差variance components 方差分量varianc e ratio 方差比various 不同的vector 向量Wweight 加权，权重weighted average 加权平均值within groups 组内的ZZ score Z分数2. 最优化方法词汇英汉对照表Aactive constraint 活动约束active set method 活动集法analytic gradient 解析梯度approximate 近似arbitrary 强制性的argument 变量attainment factor 达到因子Bbandwidth 带宽be equivalent to 等价于best-fit 最佳拟合bound 边界Ccoefficient 系数complex-value 复数值component 分量constant 常数constrained 有约束的co nstraint 约束constraint function 约束函数continuous 连续的converge 收敛cubic polynomial interpolation method三次多项式插值法curve-fitting 曲线拟合Ddata-fitting 数据拟合default 默认的，默认的define 定义diagonal 对角的direct search metho d 直接搜索法direction of search 搜索方向discontinuous 不连续Eeigenvalue 特征值empty matrix 空矩阵equality 等式exceeded 溢出的Ffeasible 可行的feasible solution 可行解finite-difference 有限差分first-order 一阶GGauss-Newton method 高斯-牛顿法goal attainment problem 目标达到问题gradient 梯度gradi ent method 梯度法Hhandle 句柄Hessian matrix 海色矩阵Independent variables 独立变量inequality 不等式infeasibility 不可行性infeasible 不可行的init ial feasible solution 初始可行解initialize 初始化inverse 逆invoke 激活iteration 迭代iteration 迭代JJacobian 雅可比矩阵LLagrange multiplier 拉格朗日乘子large-scale 大型的least square 最小二乘least squares sens e 最小二乘意义上的Levenberg-Marquardt method 列文伯格-马夸尔特法line search 一维搜索li near 线性的linear equality constraints 线性等式约束linear programming problem 线性规划问题local solution 局部解M medium-scale 中型的minimize 最小化mixed quadratic and cubic polynomial interpolation and extrapolation method 混合二次、三次多项式内插、外插法multiobjective 多目标的Nnonlinear 非线性的norm 范数Oobjective function 目标函数observed data 测量数据optimization routine 优化过程optimize 优化optimizer 求解器over-determined system 超定系统Pparameter 参数partial derivatives 偏导数polynomial interpolation method 多项式插值法Qquadratic 二次的quadratic interpolation method 二次内插法quadratic programming 二次规划Rreal-value 实数值residuals 残差robust 稳健的robustness 稳健性，鲁棒性S scalar 标量semi-infinitely problem 半无限问题Sequential Quadratic Programming method 序列二次规划法simplex search method 单纯形法solution 解sparse matrix 稀疏矩阵sparsity pattern 稀疏模式sparsity structure 稀疏结构starting point 初始点step length 步长subspace trust region method 子空间置信域法sum-of-squares 平方和symmetric matrix 对称矩阵Ttermination message 终止信息termination tolerance 终止容限the exit condition 退出条件the method of steepest descent 最速下降法transpose 转置Uunconstrained 无约束的under-determined system 负定系统Vvariable 变量vector 矢量Wweighting matrix 加权矩阵3 样条词汇英汉对照表Aapproximation 逼近array 数组a spline in b-form/b-spline b样条a spline of polynomial piece /ppform spline 分段多项式样条Bbivariate spline function 二元样条函数break/breaks 断点Ccoefficient/coefficients 系数cubic interpolation 三次插值/三次内插cubic polynomial 三次多项式cubic smoothing spline 三次平滑样条cubic spline 三次样条cubic spline interpolation 三次样条插值/三次样条内插curve 曲线Ddegree of freedom 自由度dimension 维数Eend conditions 约束条件input argument 输入参数interpolation 插值/内插interval 取值区间Kknot/knots 节点Lleast-squares approximation 最小二乘拟合Mmultiplicity 重次multivariate function 多元函数Ooptional argument 可选参数order 阶次output argument 输出参数P point/points 数据点Rrational spline 有理样条rounding error 舍入误差（相对误差）Sscalar 标量sequence 数列（数组）spline 样条spline approximation 样条逼近/样条拟合spline function 样条函数spline curve 样条曲线spline interpolation 样条插值/样条内插spline surface 样条曲面smoothing spline 平滑样条Ttolerance 允许精度Uunivariate function 一元函数Vvector 向量Wweight/weights 权重4 偏微分方程数值解词汇英汉对照表Aabsolute error 绝对误差absolute tolerance 绝对容限adaptive mesh 适应性网格Bboundary condition 边界条件Ccontour plot 等值线图converge 收敛coordinate 坐标系Ddecomposed 分解的decomposed geometry matrix 分解几何矩阵diagonal matrix 对角矩阵Diri chlet boundary conditions Dirichlet边界条件Eeigenvalue 特征值elliptic 椭圆形的error estimate 误差估计exact solution 精确解Ggeneralized Neumann boundary condition 推广的Neumann边界条件geometry 几何形状geome try description matrix 几何描述矩阵geometry matrix 几何矩阵graphical user interface（GUI）图形用户界面Hhyperbolic 双曲线的Iinitial mesh 初始网格Jjiggle 微调LLagrange multipliers 拉格朗日乘子Laplace equation 拉普拉斯方程linear interpolation 线性插值loop 循环Mmachine precision 机器精度mixed boundary condition 混合边界条件NNeuman boundary condition Neuman边界条件node point 节点nonlinear solver 非线性求解器normal vector 法向量PParabolic 抛物线型的partial differential equation 偏微分方程plane strain 平面应变plane stres s 平面应力Poisson's equation 泊松方程polygon 多边形positive definite 正定Qquality 质量Rrefined triangular mesh 加密的三角形网格relative tolerance 相对容限relative tolerance 相对容限residual 残差residual norm 残差范数Ssingular 奇异的。

计量经济学常用英语词汇，都在这里了！计量经济学常用英语词汇集锦Absolute deviation, 绝对离差Absolute residuals, 绝对残差Acceleration in an arbitrary direction, 任意方向上的加速度Acceleration normal, 法向加速度Acceleration space dimension, 加速度空间的维数Acceleration tangential, 切向加速度Acceleration vector, 加速度向量Acceptable hypothesis, 可接受假设Actual frequency, 实际频数Adaptive estimator, 自适应估计量Addition theorem, 加法定理Additive Noise, 加性噪声Adjusted rate, 调整率Adjusted value, 校正值Admissible error, 容许误差Alpha factoring,α因子法Alternative hypothesis, 备择假设Analysis of correlation, 相关分析Analysis of covariance, 协方差分析Analysis Of Effects, 效应分析Analysis Of Variance, 方差分析Analysis of regression, 回归分析Analysis of time series, 时间序列分析Angular transformation, 角转换ANOVA Models, 方差分析模型Arcsine transformation, 反正弦变换Area under the curve, 曲线面积AREG , 评估从一个时间点到下一个时间点回归相关时的误差ARIMA, 季节和非季节性单变量模型的极大似然估计Arithmetic grid paper, 算术格纸Arrhenius relation, 艾恩尼斯关系Asymptotic efficiency, 渐近效率Asymptotic variance, 渐近方差Attributable risk, 归因危险度Autocorrelation of residuals, 残差的自相关Bar chart, 条形图Bar graph, 条形图Base period, 基期Bayes' theorem , Bayes定理Bell-shaped curve, 钟形曲线Bernoulli distribution, 伯努力分布Best-trim estimator, 最好切尾估计量Binary logistic regression, 二元逻辑斯蒂回归Binomial distribution, 二项分布Bisquare, 双平方Bivariate Correlate, 二变量相关Bivariate normal distribution, 双变量正态分布Bivariate normal population, 双变量正态总体Biweight interval, 双权区间Biweight M-estimator, 双权M估计量Block, 区组/配伍组BMDP(Biomedical computer programs), BMDP统计软件包Boxplots, 箱线图/箱尾图Breakdown bound, 崩溃界/崩溃点Canonical correlation, 典型相关Case-control study, 病例对照研究Categorical variable, 分类变量Cauchy distribution, 柯西分布Center of symmetry, 对称中心Centering and scaling, 中心化和定标Central tendency, 集中趋势Central value, 中心值CHAID -χ2 Auto matic Interaction Detector, 卡方自动交互检测Chance error, 随机误差Chance variable, 随机变量Characteristic equation, 特征方程Characteristic root, 特征根Characteristic vector, 特征向量Chebshev criterion of fit, 拟合的切比雪夫准则Chernoff faces, 切尔诺夫脸谱图D test, D检验Data acquisition, 资料收集Data bank, 数据库Data capacity, 数据容量Data deficiencies, 数据缺乏Data handling, 数据处理Data manipulation, 数据处理Data processing, 数据处理Data reduction, 数据缩减Data sources, 数据来源Data transformation, 数据变换Data validity, 数据有效性Dead time, 停滞期Degree of freedom, 自由度Degree of precision, 精密度Degree of reliability, 可靠性程度Degression, 递减Density function, 密度函数Error Bar, 均值相关区间图Effect, 实验效应Eigenvalue, 特征值Eigenvector, 特征向量Empirical distribution, 经验分布Empirical probability, 经验概率单位Enumeration data, 计数资料Equal sun-class number, 相等次级组含量Equally likely, 等可能Equivariance, 同变性Error, 误差/错误Error of estimate, 估计误差Error type I, 第一类错误Error type II, 第二类错误Estimand, 被估量Estimated error mean squares, 估计误差均方Estimated error sum of squares, 估计误差平方和Euclidean distance, 欧式距离Exceptional data point, 异常数据点Expectation plane, 期望平面Expectation surface, 期望曲面Expected values, 期望值Experiment, 实验F distribution, F分布F test, F检验Factor, 因素/因子Factor analysis, 因子分析Factor score, 因子得分Factorial design, 析因试验设计False negative, 假阴性False negative error, 假阴性错误Family of distributions, 分布族Family of estimators, 估计量族Fatality rate, 病死率Gamma distribution, 伽玛分布Gauss increment, 高斯增量Gaussian distribution, 高斯分布/正态分布Gauss-Newton increment, 高斯-牛顿增量General census, 全面普查Generalized least squares, 综合最小平方法GENLOG (Generalized liner models), 广义线性模型Geometric mean, 几何平均数Gini's mean difference, 基尼均差GLM (General liner models), 通用线性模型Goodness of fit, 拟和优度/配合度Gradient of determinant, 行列式的梯度Graeco-Latin square, 希腊拉丁方Grand mean, 总均值Gross errors, 重大错误。

《概率论与数理统计》大体名词中英文对照表英文中文Probability theory 概率论mathematical statistics 数理统计deterministic phenomenon 确信性现象random phenomenon 随机现象sample space 样本空间random occurrence 随机事件fundamental event 大体事件certain event 必然事件impossible event 不可能事件random test 随机实验incompatible events 互不相容事件frequency 频率classical probabilistic model 古典概型geometric probability 几何概率conditional probability 条件概率multiplication theorem 乘法定理Bayes's formula 贝叶斯公式Prior probability 先验概率Posterior probability 后验概率Independent events 彼此独立事件Bernoulli trials 贝努利实验random variable 随机变量probability distribution 概率散布distribution function 散布函数discrete random variable 离散随机变量distribution law 散布律hypergeometric distribution 超几何散布random sampling model 随机抽样模型binomial distribution 二项散布Poisson distribution 泊松散布geometric distribution 几何散布probability density 概率密度continuous random variable 持续随机变量uniformly distribution 均匀散布exponential distribution 指数散布numerical character 数字特点mathematical expectation 数学期望variance 方差moment 矩central moment 中心矩n-dimensional random variable n-维随机变量two-dimensional random variable 二维离散随机变量joint probability distribution 联合概率散布joint distribution law 联合散布律joint distribution function 联合散布函数boundary distribution law 边缘散布律boundary distribution function 边缘散布函数exponential distribution 二维指数散布continuous random variable 二维持续随机变量joint probability density 联合概率密度boundary probability density 边缘概率密度conditional distribution 条件散布conditional distribution law 条件散布律conditional probability density 条件概率密度covariance 协方差dependency coefficient 相关系数normal distribution 正态散布limit theorem 极限定理standard normal distribution 标准正态散布logarithmic normal distribution 对数正态散布covariance matrix 协方差矩阵central limit theorem 中心极限定理Chebyshev's inequality 切比雪夫不等式Bernoulli's law of large numbers 贝努利大数定律statistics 统计量simple random sample 简单随机样本sample distribution function 样本散布函数sample mean 样本均值sample variance 样本方差sample standard deviation 样本标准差sample covariance 样本协方差sample correlation coefficient 样本相关系数order statistics 顺序统计量sample median 样本中位数sample fractiles 样本极差sampling distribution 抽样散布parameter estimation 参数估量estimator 估量量estimate value 估量值unbiased estimator 无偏估量unbiassedness 无偏性biased error 误差mean square error 均方误差relative efficient 相对有效性minimum variance 最小方差asymptotic unbiased estimator 渐近无偏估量量uniformly estimator 一致性估量量moment method of estimation 矩法估量maximum likelihood method of estimation 极大似然估量法likelihood function 似然函数maximum likelihood estimator 极大似然估量值interval estimation 区间估量hypothesis testing 假设查验statistical hypothesis 统计假设simple hypothesis 简单假设composite hypothesis 复合假设rejection region 拒绝域acceptance domain 同意域test statistics 查验统计量linear regression analysis 线性回归分析1 概率论与数理统计辞汇英汉对照表Aabsolute value 绝对值accept 同意acceptable region 同意域additivity 可加性adjusted 调整的alternative hypothesis 对立假设analysis 分析analysis of covariance 协方差分析analysis of variance 方差分析arithmetic mean 算术平均值association 相关性assumption 假设assumption checking 假设查验availability 有效度average 均值Bbalanced 平衡的band 带宽bar chart 条形图beta-distribution 贝塔散布between groups 组间的bias 偏倚binomial distribution 二项散布binomial test 二项查验Ccalculate 计算case 个案category 类别center of gravity 重心central tendency 中心趋势chi-square distribution 卡方散布chi-square test 卡方查验classify 分类cluster analysis 聚类分析coefficient 系数coefficient of correlation 相关系数collinearity 共线性column 列compare 比较comparison 对照components 组成，分量compound 复合的confidence interval 置信区间consistency 一致性constant 常数continuous variable 持续变量control charts 操纵图correlation 相关covariance 协方差covariance matrix 协方差矩阵critical point 临界点critical value 临界值crosstab 列联表cubic 三次的，立方的cubic term 三次项cumulative distribution function 累加散布函数curve estimation 曲线估量Ddata 数据default 默许的definition 概念deleted residual 剔除残差density function 密度函数dependent variable 因变量description 描述design of experiment 实验设计deviations 不同df.(degree of freedom) 自由度diagnostic 诊断dimension 维discrete variable 离散变量discriminant function 判别函数discriminatory analysis 判别分析distance 距离distribution 散布D-optimal design D-优化设计Eeaqual 相等effects of interaction 交互效应efficiency 有效性eigenvalue 特点值equal size 等含量equation 方程error 误差estimate 估量estimation of parameters 参数估量estimations 估量量evaluate 衡量exact value 精准值expectation 期望expected value 期望值exponential 指数的exponential distributon 指数散布extreme value 极值Ffactor 因素，因子factor analysis 因子分析factor score 因子得分factorial designs 析因设计factorial experiment 析因实验fit 拟合fitted line 拟合线fitted value 拟合值fixed model 固定模型fixed variable 固定变量fractional factorial design 部份析因设计frequency 频数F-test F查验full factorial design 完全析因设计function 函数Ggamma distribution 伽玛分布geometric mean 几何均值group 组Hharmomic mean 调和均值heterogeneity 不齐性histogram 直方图homogeneity 齐性homogeneity of variance 方差齐性hypothesis 假设hypothesis test 假设查验Iindependence 独立independent variable 自变量independent-samples 独立样本index 指数index of correlation 相关指数interaction 交互作用interclass correlation 组内相关interval estimate 区间估量intraclass correlation 组间相关inverse 倒数的iterate 迭代Kkernal 核Kolmogorov-Smirnov test柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米诺夫查验kurtosis 峰度Llarge sample problem 大样本问题layer 层least-significant difference 最小显著差数least-square estimation 最小二乘估量least-square method 最小二乘法level 水平level of significance 显著性水平leverage value 中心化杠杆值life 寿命life test 寿命实验likelihood function 似然函数likelihood ratio test 似然比查验linear 线性的linear estimator 线性估量linear model 线性模型linear regression 线性回归linear relation 线性关系linear term 线性项logarithmic 对数的logarithms 对数logistic 逻辑的lost function 损失函数Mmain effect 主效应matrix 矩阵maximum 最大值maximum likelihood estimation 极大似然估量mean squared deviation(MSD) 均方差mean sum of square 均方和measure 衡量media 中位数M-estimator M估量minimum 最小值missing values 缺失值mixed model 混合模型mode 众数model 模型Monte Carle method 蒙特卡罗法moving average 移动平均值multicollinearity 多元共线性multiple comparison 多重比较multiple correlation 多重相关multiple correlation coefficient 复相关系数multiple correlation coefficient 多元相关系数multiple regression analysis 多元回归分析multiple regression equation 多元回归方程multiple response 多响应multivariate analysis 多元分析Nnegative relationship 负相关nonadditively 不可加性nonlinear 非线性nonlinear regression 非线性回归noparametric tests 非参数查验normal distribution 正态散布null hypothesis 零假设number of cases 个案数Oone-sample 单样本one-tailed test 单侧查验one-way ANOVA 单向方差分析one-way classification 单向分类optimal 优化的optimum allocation 最优配制order 排序order statistics 顺序统计量origin 原点orthogonal 正交的outliers 异样值Ppaired observations 成对观测数据paired-sample 成对样本parameter 参数parameter estimation 参数估量partial correlation 偏相关partial correlation coefficient 偏相关系数partial regression coefficient 偏回归系数percent 百分数percentiles 百分位数pie chart 饼图point estimate 点估量poisson distribution 泊松散布polynomial curve 多项式曲线polynomial regression 多项式回归polynomials 多项式positive relationship 正相关power 幂P-P plot P-P概率图predict 预测predicted value 预测值prediction intervals 预测区间principal component analysis 主成份分析proability 概率probability density function 概率密度函数probit analysis 概率分析proportion 比例Qqadratic 二次的Q-Q plot Q-Q概率图quadratic term 二次项quality control 质量操纵quantitative 数量的，气宇的quartiles 四分位数Rrandom 随机的random number 随机数random number 随机数random sampling 随机取样random seed 随机数种子random variable 随机变量randomization 随机化range 极差rank 秩rank correlation 秩相关rank statistic 秩统计量regression analysis 回归分析regression coefficient 回归系数regression line 回归线reject 拒绝rejection region 拒绝域relationship 关系reliability 靠得住性repeated 重复的report 报告，报表residual 残差residual sum of squares 剩余平方和response 响应risk function 风险函数robustness 稳健性root mean square 标准差row 行run 游程run test 游程查验Ssample 样本sample size 样本容量sample space 样本空间sampling 取样sampling inspection 抽样查验scatter chart 散点图S-curve S形曲线separately 单独地sets 集合sign test 符号查验significance 显著性significance level 显著性水平significance testing 显著性查验significant 显著的，有效的significant digits 有效数字skewed distribution 偏态散布skewness 偏度small sample problem 小样本问题smooth 滑腻sort 排序soruces of variation 方差来源space 空间spread 扩展square 平方standard deviation 标准离差standard error of mean 均值的标准误差standardization 标准化standardize 标准化statistic 统计量statistical quality control 统计质量操纵std. residual 标准残差stepwise regression analysis 慢慢回归stimulus 刺激strong assumption 强假设stud. deleted residual 学生化剔除残差stud. residual 学生化残差subsamples 次级样本sufficient statistic 充分统计量sum 和sum of squares 平方和summary 归纳，综述Ttable 表t-distribution t散布test 查验test criterion 查验判据test for linearity 线性查验test of goodness of fit 拟合优度查验test of homogeneity 齐性查验test of independence 独立性查验test rules 查验法那么test statistics 查验统计量testing function 查验函数time series 时刻序列tolerance limits 允许限total 总共，和transformation 转换treatment 处置trimmed mean 截尾均值true value 真值t-test t查验two-tailed test 双侧查验Uunbalanced 不平衡的unbiased estimation 无偏估量unbiasedness 无偏性uniform distribution 均匀散布Vvalue of estimator 估计值variable 变量variance 方差variance components 方差分量variance ratio 方差比various 不同的vector 向量Wweight 加权，权重weighted average 加权平均值within groups 组内的ZZ score Z分数。

Analysis of political risks and opportunities in public private partnerships (PPP)in China and selected Asian countriesSurvey resultsTillmann SachsNanyang Technological University,Singapore andBanque AIG,London Branch,UKRobert TiongNanyang Technological University,Singapore,andShou Qing WangDepartment of Construction Management,Tsinghua University,People’s Republic of ChinaAbstractPurpose –The paper aims to provide insight into the opportunities and impact of political risks inChina and selected Asian countries on opportunities in infrastructure projects under public-privatepartnership (PPP)schemes.Design/methodology/approach –The impact of political risks on PPPs was investigated throughan international survey among senior staff of international lenders,investors,insurers,and legal andfinancial advisors from the public and private sector.The surveyed political risk categories base on theMultilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Convention and literature review.They comprise sixcategories:currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction,expropriation,breach of contract,political violence,legal,regulatory and bureaucratic risks,and non-governmental action risks.The survey evaluation uses fuzzy sets and non-parametric statistics.Findings –The findings comprise rankings of political risk factors within China and Asian countriesas well as rankings of these countries with respect to the risk categories and rankings of future PPPopportunities over time.Also,survey comments are discussed.The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at/1750-614X.htmThe views expressed herein are the authors’and do not reflect the policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB),Ernst &Young,KfW-IPEX Bank,Ministry of Public Works (Indonesia),Chair of Construction Economics at BUW,Nanyang Technological University,or any other entity.Many thanks to all survey respondents for their time and effort in answering the questionnaire and responding to additional queries and evaluations.The survey has been commissioned with the support of James Neal,Ernst &Young,Partner,Global Head of Project Finance,Daniel Wagner,Senior Guarantees and Syndications Specialist,Office of Co-financing Operations,the Asian Development Bank (ADB),Bela Onken,Senior Project Manager,Team Project Finance,KfW-IPEX Bank,Professor Dr Hans Wilhelm Alfen,Chair of Construction Economics,Bauhaus University Weimar (BUW)and head of EU-Asia network for PPP.The survey has been designed,conducted,evaluated,and authored by Tillmann Sachs and Dr Robert Tiong from the Nanyang Technological University,Singapore.CMS1,2126Chinese Management StudiesVol.1No.2,2007pp.126-148q Emerald Group Publishing Limited1750-614XDOI 10.1108/17506140710758026Research limitations/implications–The survey response rate is relatively low with 29respondents.This is attributed to the specialized nature of the survey questions and topic area. It also indicates that political risks are little understood and paid attention to,though significant in impact.Owing to the chosen evaluation methods for small sample sizes,the results are robust and show high correlations with market data.Practical implications–The results provide insight into the impact of political risks and the perceived magnitude of each risk category.It supports decision makers prioritizing and analyzing country risks. Originality/value–The value and originality is in the use of a fuzzy-coded survey scale to quantify perceptions on single political risk factors across China and Asian countries with focus on PPP infrastructure projects.The paper demonstrated that robust results from small sample sizes can be derived with the employed methods.Keywords China,Asia,Risk management,Partnership,Business environmentPaper type Research paper1.Introduction1.1Background of political risks in Asian PPPsIn public-private partnerships(PPPs),the private sector entities provide public sector goods and services in sectors such as power and water utilities,transport infrastructure,social services,and public real estate.In a joint study prepared by the Asian Development Bank,the Japan Bank for International Cooperation,and the World Bank(ADB,JBIC,and World Bank,2005),it was estimated that infrastructure investment needs in21developing countries in East Asia would reach$200billion per year over the nextfive years.The private sector is recognized as a significantfinancing source for meeting developing country investment requirements,butfinancial markets remain largely untapped for this purpose and have yet to live up to their potential[1].A significant reason for this is the perception of political risk that exists in the developing world.Asia’s governments often lack the funds to meet their own infrastructure needs and increasingly rely on the private sector to plan,finance,build,and operate infrastructure projects under long-term contractual agreements in PPP.The success of PPPs depend on stable legal and political environments,which is often absent in developing Asian countries.The relevance and the importance that perceived political risks could play in PPPs is supported by results from a survey on risks and opportunities in transportation PPPs in Asia(Norton Rose,2006).Thefindings indicate that political,counterparty, legal and regulatory risks are critical in Asian countries and across transportation PPP sectors.Political risks are arbitrary or discriminatory actions taken by home or host governments,political groups,or individuals that have an adverse impact on international trade or investment transactions(Wagner,1999).Some political risks are directly attributable to governmental actions,such as restrictions on converting or transferring currencies,political violence,expropriation,or breach of contract,and are insurable through public and private sector political risk insurance providers. Other political risks–such as changes in laws or governments,legal or regulatory changes–are not insurable and are commonly borne by the private sector.1.2China:relevance of political risks in PPPs and lessons learnedThe Shajiao B power plant in Shenzhen city is thefirst build-operate-transfer project (BOT,which is one delivery form of PPPs)in China.It was approved by provincial Political risksand opportunities127government and implemented by Hong Kong’s Hopewell Holding Ltd Since,PPP arrangements have a lot of advantages in reducing government’s financial burden,attracting foreign and private investments,improving management and operation efficiency,facilitating technology transfer and promoting infrastructure development,Chinese Government has been applying PPP schemes at large-scale since the early 1990s when the first round of PPP investments,especially the foreign investments inroads,water and power plant projects,reached a peak.Among them,the mostrepresentative is the Laibin B power plant in Guangxi Province with 100percentforeign ownership.It was awarded through international competitive tendering.It hasbecome a successful example of PPP projects in China and a lot more projects wereimplemented in a similar way (Zhang and Kumaraswamy,2001).1.2.1Current PPP activities in China .However,with the rapid growth of the Chineseeconomy,and with Beijing’s success in bidding for 2008Olympic Games,thebottleneck effect of infrastructure shortage for the development of the economyemerged in early 2000.The investment in infrastructure such as energy,transportation,water and waste treatment as well as other public services could notbe completed by the government alone.The government invited foreign companies andChina’s private capital to participate in infrastructure development and public servicesin China through PPP vehicles.Some related government policies have beenpromulgated recently.The Beijing Municipal Government issued the Regulation onDeveloping Urban Infrastructure with PPP arrangements on August 28,2003.TheMinistry of Construction promulgated the Administrative Rules for PPP Urban PublicUtilities Projects on March 19,2004.Both regulations are regulating and acceleratingthe application of PPP proposals.For example,about two-third of the 32sport venuesincluding the main stadium –China National Stadium –for the 2008Beijing OlympicGames and the Nos 3,4and 5subway routes in Beijing are being developed with PPPvehicle.It is estimated that by 2008,the investments in infrastructures in Beijing alonewill account for RMB 230billion,most of which will be through PPPs (Beijing EveningNews ,2003).The following section lists some of the recently implemented projects:.The first sludge treatment project using BOT model in China with the world’slargest capacity has been built and operated in Guangzhou since 2002and will betransferred to the Guangzhou Government after 20-year of concessionary period(Xinhua Online,2004;Green GuangZhou,2006)..A private corporation –the Sichuan Ruiyun Group –was awarded a concessionproject in 2002from the Qionglai City Government,Sichuan Province,toconstruction a new satellite downtown which is about 5square kilometers largeand requires RMB 1billion investments.The group is responsible for thefinancing,design,construction and operation of the project with a concessionaryperiod of 50years.It is the first time for a local government in China to awardsuch a multi-functional downtown project as a PPP (Chinese Economic Weekly,2002,CCGOV,2006a,b)..A PPP waste treatment project in Foshan City,Guangdong Province,with totalinvestment of RMB 0.25billion and daily processing capacity of 2,000tons wasawarded in 2003(,2004)..A PPP railway from Huhehaote –the metropolis of Neimenggu Province –toZhunger –another city in the province –with a total investment of RMBCMS 1,21281.342billion was awarded in2003(,2004).The commercialoperation of this124.18kilometer railway started on November12,2006(Xinhua News,2006)..A BOT/PPP wastewater treatment plant in Yidu City,Hubei Province was awarded in2007with total investment of RMB60million for25-year concession period,and daily wastewater treatment capacity is targeted to be25,000ton/day in the short-term and50,000ton/day in the long run(,2007). It is reported that a new round of PPP investment tide is emerging in China again. There are also many problems which plague BOT/PPP projects,such as Shenyang Waterworks,bridge and tube projects in Shanghai and Guangdong(Wang,2002a). It is necessary to understand the risks and their causes in PPP projects in China for future successful PPP project completion.In particular,political and sovereign risk are critical in Chinese PPP projects as the government always is one of the main partners.1.2.2Political risks and setbacks in China’s PPP projects.Based on the data collected from the literature,(Wang et al.1999,2000;Zhang and Kumaraswamy,2001;Wang, 2002a),and interviews conducted by Wang(2002a),the problems of PPP application in China can be categorized into the following aspects:.Unrealistic or unreasonable guarantees and supports made by Chinese local governments that lead to high cost for local governments to fulfill the contracts, resulting in default of payments by local governments(especially during the change at expiration of office terms and change of key officers).Therefore,for the investors,the risk of credit-worthiness of local governments is of their main concern.Owing to lack of relevant experience and knowledge on PPP or for short-term purposes,some local governments make unrealistic guarantees and supports to attract foreign investment.This adds risk to the local governments as it will cost them much more to honor their obligations in future.Once the local governments are unable or unwilling to commit,the contract is breached and it is very difficult for the investors to get compensation for various reasons.Sometimes the investors cannot achieve the expected return on investment or even cannot repay their debt including principal and interest..Some investors make huge profits from PPP projects because the local governments have limited experience and knowledge about PPPs or have made too many guarantees to investors or lack accurate predictions of demand for the projects.The wrong decisions made by the local governments usually incur complaints from the public and may result in the key officials stepping down.For the investors,this also hampers its long-term security for PPP investment in China..Considering their career achievement or short-term goals or personal interests,some local government officials make decisions that are against the central government’s policies,the long-term goals or public interests which often lead to the failure of PPP projects.Foreign investors may know little about Chinese laws and policies,the recourse against the local government,and liability of government officials’decisions because of China’s complex social and economic characteristics.Under this circumstance,a PPP project which is based on a local government’s or the officials’unreasonable or unrealistic promises may be liquidated when there is change in laws and policies or key officials of the government.The investors will Political risksand opportunities129then not be able to operate the PPP project successfully and thereby do not achieve the expected return on investment..The macro-economics control and intervention on investment and market from the central government also imposes risks to PPP projects.From 1998to 2000,the issuing of additional RMB 360billion national debt for infrastructure and the adoption of the “stronger-power policy”by the central government made the macro-economic environment different from that when many BOT/PPP projects were negotiated and awarded in the 1990s,resulting in difficulties to most of the existing PPP projects implemented during that time.Therefore,only a few projects are operated successfully now..Investors’over-reliance on Chinese Government’s promises,especially their verbal promises,has led to unrealistic expectations on return of investment.Some investors made their investment decisions based only on government’s promises instead of reliable feasibility ernment and foreign investors reached agreements easily with the government’s promises,especially when the government needed funding while the investors needed projects.It is not surprising that these projects,without much feasibility study,will fail eventually..The construction and operation of any BOT/PPP projects cannot proceed successfully without the governments’cooperation and assistance,but sometimes the cost for such cooperation and assistance is too much for the investors due to the corruption of some local government officers.The cost resulting from the entertainment activities for some government officers is also high,which is a burden to project companies.In addition to money,project companies have to spend a lot of time and effort on coping with “Guanxi (relationship)”–a characteristic Chinese culture.This also has a negative influence on the efficiency of the companies’operation and management as well as profits..Except for some local governments’or ministries’regulations relevant to PPP,e.g.the Beijing and MOC’s regulations mentioned above,there is no national PPP law in China.This leads to different ways of PPP implementation in different places in China.Therefore,it is hard for project companies to study and adapt to the various rules and regulations in the different places given the broad geographic area of China.The investors hence have to face great legal risk..In addition,the tendering process of many PPP projects in China and thetendering documents vary from project to project and from province to provincewithout transparent or standardized models.This is certainly unhealthy for thePPP development in China and for the benefits of the country.It can be seen from above that almost all the problems have the same characteristic,i.e.they are related to government or government officers and their actions.Therefore,from the viewpoint of the project companies,these problems are a form of political andsovereign risks.According to both experts and project mangers in PPPs,as PPPs rely heavily on theinvestment environment,legal and banking systems,there are no mature projectstructures,models nor best practices in place.On the other hand,PPP is aninter-disciplinary undertaking requiring all project participants with comprehensiveCMS 1,2130knowledge which is lacking especially in China.Therefore,complicated problems could occur during PPP implementation in China.The long concession period of PPPs, huge investment and many risks make it difficult to implement.In addition,Chinese central government and local governments lack the requisite experience and there are no mature relevant laws and policies in place.These could cause many problems during the execution of PPP projects in China.Among the critical risks are political and sovereign risks;the most typical one is the government’s creditworthiness risk when the government cannot honor its guarantees.During the implementation of a BOT/PPP project in China,foreign investors regard the creditworthiness of Chinese local government as one of the critical risks(Wang et al.,1999,2000).2.Survey design and evaluation methodsAn international survey was conducted for collecting expert opinions on political risks affecting PPP opportunities in China and other Asian countries.Many of the political risk characteristics of China can be found in other Asian countries as well.The survey covers14key Asian countries and puts the perceptions on the political risks in the countries in comparative perspective.The political risk factors are ranked by using fuzzy set rankings and compared against each other with methods from non-parametric statistics.2.1Survey objectivesThe survey objectives are:.ranking political risks within Asian countries and ranking Asian countries with respect to political risks;and.ranking future PPP opportunities in Asian countries.The survey covers six political risk categories in14Asian countries.2.2Survey responseThe survey was sent by e-mail without delivery failure to the contacts provided by the survey partners and the authors’personal contacts.The respondents are professionals in multi national companies and organizations working on different aspects related to infrastructure projects and who come from different backgrounds.In total,29survey responses were collected.Table I shows the origin of responses.2.3Survey scopeThe respondents were asked to provide their perceptions of the impact of six different political risk categories on PPP opportunities in China and selected Asian countries.Background Number Location Number Sector Number Investor/developer7USA/Canada2Public7 Lender8Europe3Private22 Insurer5Asia24Professional advisor8 Contractor1Table I. Respondents’information Political risksand opportunities131The evaluation allows ranking of the criticality of political risks within and across China and Asian countries and show future trends.The countries under survey are China,Bangladesh,Cambodia,India,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Pakistan,Philippines,Singapore,Taiwan,Thailand,and Vietnam.The respondents were asked to provide their opinion on future PPP opportunities in these countries in 2007,2009,2015,and 2025.The political risk categories can be grouped into insurable and not insurable(Figure 1).The definitions for insurable political risks as noted below in categories “A”to “D”are derived from the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA,1985)Convention and in categories “E”and “F”from Tinsley (2000):(A)Currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction (CI/TR).Any actionattributable to host government restrictions on the conversion and transfer ofcurrency outside the host country into a freely usable currency,including thefailure of a host government to act within a reasonable period of time on anapplication for such transfer.(B)Expropriation.Any legislative or administrative action from the hostgovernment which has the effect of depriving an investor of its ownership orcontrol of or substantial benefit from its investment,with the exception ofnon-discriminatory measures of general application.(C)Breach of contract.Any repudiation or breach of a contract by a host government:.when there is no recourse to judicial or arbitral forum to determine the claim;.a decision by such forum is not rendered within reasonable period of time,or.such decision cannot be enforced.(D)Political violence.Acts of war,civil war,insurrection/civil disturbance,terrorism,sabotage,or landowner and/or indigenous people’s disturbance in thehost country.(E)Legal,regulatory,and bureaucratic risks.Risks within the administrativeprocess that cannot be directly attributed to one of the above.These include thelegal enforceability and execution of laws,conflict of authority,corruption,transparency,issuing of approvals and consents,change of government causingchanges in law,policy,and taxation,and obstruction during arbitration process.(F)Non-governmental action risks.“Non-governmental action risks”are thoserisks which the government has no direct influence on and do not fall within anyof the above categories.These include actions by environmental and unionactivists,religious fundamentalism,ethnic tension,interventions by the USAand/or European Union,and foreign exchange risks.Figure 1.Influence of political risksonPPPs CMS 1,2132The survey covers Bangladesh,Cambodia,the People’s Republic of China,India,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Pakistan,the Philippines,Singapore,Taiwan,Thailand,and Vietnam.2.4Survey scaleThe respondents were asked to indicate their perception by using a seven-grade scale(Table II).The linguistic values in this survey scale are coded by fuzzy sets (Figure 2).These fuzzy numbers were determined by fuzzy aggregation of opinions of 31professionals and post-graduate university students that were surveyed in order toderive these distributions prior to the PPP survey.2.5Combined methodologyIn the research,the other risk categories that may affect PPPs are not considered.Theseinclude demand,supply,market,construction,technical,operational,engineering,completion,environmental,currency devaluation,counterparty,syndication,interest ScaleDescription 0None,not applicable 1Extremely low 2Very low 3Low 4Medium 5High 6Very high 7Extremely high Table II.Survey scaleFigure 2.Fuzzy sets coding a seven-grade survey scaleLinguistic values as Tr.F.N. representation00.20.40.60.811.20.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 1.0IntervalM e m b e r s h i p µEL VL L M H VH EHPolitical risks and opportunities 133rate,or infrastructure risks.Some may also be triggered by governmental action but inthis survey,they are considered as already being successfully mitigated.In order to address the comparatively small sample size of survey responses,several techniques from fuzzy set theory and non-parametric statistics have been combined to evaluate the survey responses,and these are explained in the following section.2.6Fuzzy sets,fuzzy aggregation,and centroid rankingFuzzy sets fit best in generating robust results with small sample sizes.While each expert provided different opinions on the survey questions,the multiple opinions expressed each survey question are aggregated by determining the weighted average on the quadruples of the fuzzy numbers (Klir and Yuan,1995;Klir,2006).Fuzzy numbers are possibility distribution functions where at least one value must assume a membership of 1.0.For the survey,trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (TrFN)are used.They are characterized by the quadruples a ,b ,c ,and d that are ascending on a scale and the membership of a and d is zero and that of b and c is one.It is:a #b #c #d and m ða ;d Þ¼0;m ðb ;c Þ¼1;for {a ;b ;c ;d }[R þ:Each single expert opinion on the perception of the political risks is represented by one TrFN from the survey scale.In order to evaluate the total perception,the multiple TrFNs are aggregated to build a new TrFN that represents the aggregated perceptions.The most common method for this purpose is the application of the weighted average:A ðx Þ¼Xn i ¼1c i A i ðx Þ;ð1Þwhere A i (x )denotes the valuation of the proposition “x belongs to A ”by expert i .“A ”is the TrFN from the coded survey scale,and “x ”is the quadruple.n denotes the number of TrFNs evaluated,and c i the weights of the relative significance of each opinion.In the survey evaluation,each opinion was considered of equal importance and weighted as:Xn i ¼1c i ¼1:The aggregated fuzzy numbers represent the aggregated expert opinion responses to the survey questions.These responses are ranked in order of their criticality.The ordering criteria are the centroids (center of gravity)of the fuzzy numbers (Kaufmann and Gupta,1988).The centroid x 0is determined by:x 0¼P x i m i P iThis measure is more robust than is the mean value as it is less subject to being skewed,but represents the center of opinions.The linguistic value of the aggregated TrFN can be determined by two ways.One is the Euclidian distance (Schmucker,1985):CMS 1,2134d ðX ;A Þ¼ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffii X ½x ði Þ2A ði Þ 2s and the other is by determining the similarity to the linguistic values of the survey scale (Chen,1996):F ðX ;B Þ¼12ðj a 12a 2j þj b 12b 2j þj c 12c 2j þj d 12d 2jÞ4:In this survey evaluation,the similarity approach is applied.2.7Non-parametric statisticsThe application of methods of non-parametric statistics allows pair-wise comparisons of rankings and determining correlations and significance levels of these correlations between rankings.The Spearman rank correlation coefficient r s or r s is calculated by determining the correlation between rankings in two data sets.The rankings between each member of a pair is compared:r s ¼126P d 2n ðn 221Þwhere,d ¼the difference between the ranks of corresponding values x and y of a pair,and n ¼number of pairs of values.The correlation between two rank statistics is positive when 0,r s #1:0and negative when 21:0#r s ,0:When r s ¼0;the two rank statistics are uncorrelated (Freund and Perles,2007).The significance of the correlation result is determined by calculating the t -value and by using the Student’s t -distribution for determining the level of significance.t ¼r ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffið12r 2Þ=ðn 22Þp These two methods are applied to determine correlations between country risks and opportunities and to validate the survey findings against sovereign ratings from Standard and Poor’s.2.8The QQIR methodThere exist a number of methods to quantify risks.These include check lists with and without indication of importance,reports,stress tests,or stochastic simulations.Most quantitative methods depend on robust historical and numerical data to derive discrete or continuous probability distributions or maximum and minimum ranges of risk parameters.Qualitative methods depend on knowledgeable experts that provide an educated best guess with their judgment on risk parameters.Ground breaking work by medals,prizes,and awards winning,and multiple Honorary Doctorate Zadeh (1965)on “Fuzzy sets”and subsequent works in possibility and probability theory set the basis for the modern theories of artificial intelligence,allowing computation with words and numerical description of ambiguous,vague,and uncertain states.Political risks and opportunities 135。