chap05 the behavior of interest rate

The Behavior of Interest Rates ( ... how to explain)From chapter 4:bond prices and interest rates are inversely relatedwhatever determines bond prices must also (implicitly) determine interest ratesSooooo.....What determines bond prices?Supply & Demand (!)The theory of asset demand & supplyAsset demand, determinants of ...Determinant Effect on demanda) expected (relative) return +b) wealth +c) risk (relative) -d) liquidity (relative) +Asset supply, determinants ofDeterminant Effect on supplya) Cost of capital (YTM) -b) expected profitability +c) government deficit +Let the bond in question be a zero coupon 1-year t-bill w/ $1000 face valueexpected return = (FV-P)/P = YTMwhereFV=face valueP=price of bondYTM = yield to maturityWhy equal to YTM?by definition of YTM,P=FV/(1+YTM)ergoFV/P = 1+YTMFV/P - 1 = YTM(FV - P)/P = YTM q.e.d.Example:let P= 900 expected return = (1000-900)/900 = 11.1% = YTMlet P= 800 expected return = (1000-800)/800 = 25% = YTMetc.(Graph curve for bonds, CETERIS PARIBUS)Meanwhile, on the supply side of the market ...What is the "cost of capital" to the borrower?Borrower receives "P" (price of bond) upon initial saleBorrower pays periodic coupon and face value at maturityOn a 1 year zero-coupon,cost of capital = (FV - P)/P = YTMExample:LetP=600 cost of capital = (1000-600)/600 = 66% = YTMP=700 cost of capital = (1000-700)/700 = 43% = YTM(Graph supply curve of bonds, CETERIS PARIBUS)The "Liquidity Preference" Framework... of J.M. KeynesFocus on "Money Market" instead of "Bond Market"An alternative framework to "Loanable Funds"Better suited to analyze business cycle and other short-run fluctuations Note about LFF: bond supply inelastic in very short runAlso: Money market much more volatile than bond market....Assume two assets, Money, and BondsPeople decide what portion of their wealth to hold in each formWhat's the price of money?Roughly speaking, the interest rateWhy? b/c it's the opportunity cost of not holding a bond instead(assuming bond pays the interest rate, and ignoringcapital gains on bonds)The higher the interest rate, the higher the cost of holding money,and the more people will squeeze their liquidity for the sakeof higher returnsDeterminants of money demand:i - (the interest rate): determines opportunity cost of not holding bondsY - (nominal income): determines "transactions demand" for moneyP - (the price level): determines the "real balances" people holdE(P) - (the expected price level): determines the real rate of return on money。

Group 3 Presentation about Interest rate Interest rate is the rate at which interest is paid by a borrower for the use of money that they borrow from a lender. For example, a small company borrows capital from a bank to buy new assets for their business, a nd in return the lender receives interest at a predetermined interest rate for deferring the use of funds and instead lending it to the borrower. Interest rates are normally expressed as a percentage of the principal for a period of one year.Interest rates targets are also a vital tool of monetary policy and are taken into account when dealing with variables like investment, inflation, and unemployment.Interest rates are among the most closely watched variables in the economy. Their movements are reported almost daily by the news media, because they directly affect our everyday lives and have important consequence for the health of the economy. They affect personal decisions such as whether to consumer or save, interest rates also affect the economic decisions of businesses and households, such as whether to use their funds to invest in new equipment for factories or to save their money in a bank.The formulate among PV, CF, I and n isPV = present valueCF = cash flowI = annual interest rateN = numbers of yearsSo far in our discussion of interest rate, we don’t take the effects of inflation on the cost of borrowing in consideration. According to whether the interest rate affected by inflation, there are two kinds of interest rate: nominal interest rate and real interest rate. Real interest rate is adjusted by subtracting inflation, so that in reflect the true cost of borrowing accurately. However, nominal interest rate is calculated without consideration about effect of inflation on the cost of borrowing. It is useful to understand the distinction between real and nominal interest rate, because the real interest rate reflects the real cost of borrowing. When the interest rate is low, there are greater incentives to borrow and fewer to lend, vice versa. The Fisher Effect would help us understand the distinction typically through the Fisher equation. It states that the nominal interest rate (r) equals the real interest rate (R) plus the expected rate of inflation (a):r=R+aSo, the real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the expected inflation rate:R=r-aIf I am a lender now, I think the interest rate that is relevant to me is the real interest rate rather than nominal interest rate. For example, there are two cases for you to choose to make a loan. We know the real rate of first case is 1% and the nominal interest rate and inflation rate of second case are 4%and 5%. You would choose the case that makes you earn as much as possible. Inthe first case, the amount that you will receive will be worth 1% more in terms of goods and services. However, it will be worth 1% less in the second case. So you should choose the first case to make a loan. Since the real interest rate is a better indicator of the incentives to borrow and lend, so it is relevant to the lender.The distinction between interest rates and returnsHow well a person does by holding a bond or any other security over a particular time period is accurately measured by the return , or, the rate of return .Return is defined as the payments to the other owner (yield to maturity) plus the change in its value, expressed as a fraction of its purchase price.More generally , the return on a bond held from t to time t+1 can be written as112P P P C R -+=whereR=return from holding the bond from time t to time t+1P1=price of the bond at time tP2=price of bond at time t+1C=coupon payment1121P P P P CR -+=The first term is the current yield iThe second term is the rate of capital gainThe current yield i is an accurate measure of the yield to maturity, and the return can differ substantially from the interest rate, because the bond can produce substantial capital gains or losses.Table 2 Page84。

chat gpt的影响英语作文The Impact of Chat GPTWith the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, various applications have emerged to improve our daily lives. Chat GPT, a conversational model based on transformer architecture, has gained significant popularity recently due to its ability to generate human-like text responses and engage in meaningful conversations. This AI-powered chatbot has revolutionized the way people interact with computers and has a wide range of effects on communication, productivity, and social interactions.One of the most notable impacts of Chat GPT is its ability to enhance communication efficiency. By using natural language processing techniques, Chat GPT can understand and generate human-like responses to user queries, enabling seamless communication between humans and machines. With the advancement of this technology, businesses can leverage Chat GPT to automate customer service interactions, improving response times and customer satisfaction. Additionally, Chat GPT can aid individuals in learning new languages or improving their communication skills by providing real-time feedback and practice opportunities.Another key effect of Chat GPT is its influence on productivity. By automating routine tasks and providing instant support, Chat GPT can help individuals and businesses save time and resources. For instance, Chat GPT can assist in scheduling appointments, managing to-do lists, and providing personalized recommendations based on user preferences. This technology also enables collaborative work environments by facilitating communication and information sharing among team members, regardless of their physical location. With the integration of Chat GPT, organizations can streamline their operations and increase efficiency in various aspects of their business processes.Furthermore, Chat GPT has a profound impact on social interactions and human behavior. As people increasingly engage with AI-powered chatbots in their daily lives, they are becoming accustomed to interacting with intelligent machines. This familiarity with AI technology may lead to changes in social norms and expectations, as individuals adjust their behavior to accommodate the presence of AI-enabled devices. Moreover, the rise of Chat GPT raises ethical concerns related to privacy, data security, and the potential misuse of AI technology for malicious purposes. It is crucial for developers and users to address these ethical considerations and ensure that Chat GPT is used responsibly and ethically.In conclusion, Chat GPT has a transformative impact on communication, productivity, and social interactions. As this technology continues to evolve and expand its capabilities, it is essential for individuals and organizations to adapt to the changing landscape of AI-powered chatbots. By harnessing the potential of Chat GPT and leveraging its benefits, we can enhance our interactions with technology and improve our daily lives in meaningful ways.。

社交媒体给人们交流方式带来的变化英语作文全文共3篇示例，供读者参考篇1Social Media: Changing How We Talk to Each OtherThese days, it seems like everyone is always on their phones or computers, tapping away at the screen. We've got all these social media apps like Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, and more. My parents are always telling me to get off my devices, but social media has become a huge part of how kids my age communicate and interact with our friends.Before social media existed, people had to communicate in much more old-fashioned ways. They would have to pick up a telephone and actually call someone's home number. Can you imagine?? Or they would have to write letters and mail them - so inefficient! Nowadays, we can just open up an app and instantly message any of our friends, share photos and videos, and stay updated on what everyone is doing.Social media has definitely changed things in a big way when it comes to friendships and relationships. In the past, you would make friends with the kids at your school or in yourneighborhood. But social media allows us to connect with people all over the world that we may never meet in person. I have online friends from different countries that I chat with regularly. We bond over our shared interests in games, TV shows, sports, or whatever we're into.Not only that, but social media impacts how we get to know people in real life too. These days, you can check out someone's social media profiles before you even meet them to get a sense of their personality and interests. It's kind of like doing background research! When you do meet in person, you already have some common ground to start from.Of course, with these new ways of communicating comes new challenges too. Sometimes messages on social media can be misinterpreted since you can't see the person's facial expressions or hear their tone of voice. Little misunderstandings can turn into bigger fights over a simple text. My parents are always warning me to be careful about what I post online too, since anything I share could potentially be visible to everyone forever.Another downside is that social media can make it easier to be mean to others, since you're not face-to-face. Cyberbullying is a huge problem and I've seen kids at my school get really hurt bynasty comments or rumors spread on apps like Instagram. It's so cowardly for bullies to hide behind a screen instead of saying something to someone's face.On the other hand, social media has also made it possible for people to stand up to bullies more easily. If someone is picking on me online, I can just block them with a tap instead of having to confront them directly. Or I can call them out publicly in a way that brings attention to their behavior. In the past, bullying could be more hidden from grown-ups, but today it often happens out in the open online.It's not just our personal relationships that have changed because of social media - the way we get information and learn about the world is totally different too. Back in the day, you had to rely on sources like newspapers, television news, encyclopedias, and libraries to find out what was happening beyond your local area. Now, we have a constant stream of updates and info coming at us from all directions on social media.I'll admit, it can be overwhelming trying to keep up with everything happening on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and elsewhere. There's so much noise and so many people sharing their opinions, rumors, videos, and more. But social media hasalso given a voice to people and communities that may not have had one before on traditional platforms. Activists can spread awareness about important causes, regular folks can share firsthand accounts of major events, and we get to see perspectives from all over the globe.Of course, this flow of information means we have to be really careful about what sources we trust. Not everything shared on social media is going to be true or accurate. It's getting harder to separate fact from fiction, real news from fake news that's just meant to get attention or push an agenda. My teachers are always telling us to verify information instead of just believing whatever pops up on our feeds.Overall, I'd say social media has been a bit of adouble-edged sword when it comes to changing communication. On one side, it's made connecting with others so much easier and opened up our world in amazing ways. We can make friends internationally, stay updated on global events, share our voices and creativity, and express ourselves however we want.But on the other hand, social media has created some new and tricky problems around things like online bullying, privacy concerns, and sorting fact from fiction. It's made communication faster, but not always deeper or more meaningful. Sometimes itfeels like we're all experiencing life through screens rather than being present.At the end of the day though, change is inevitable - and social media is still a relatively new development that humanity is still figuring out how to handle. Who knows what other technologies might pop up that will transform how we communicate in the future? For now, I'm just trying to navigate this social media world while staying a kind, smart digital citizen. If you can't say something nice, don't say it at all - whether in person or online!篇2The Way We Chat Has Changed a Lot!Hi there! My name is Alex and I'm 10 years old. I've been using social media for a few years now and let me tell you, it has totally changed how kids my age talk to our friends and family!Before social media was a big thing, the main way we would chat with our buddies was in person at school, on the playground, or at each other's houses. We'd make plans to have sleepovers, talk about the latest video games or TV shows, and just hang out together. If we wanted to talk to a friend who livedfar away, we had to call them on the house phone and hope their parents would let them get on the line.But now with apps like Instagram, Snapchat, and TikTok, we can message our friends anywhere, anytime without having to ask for permission! We can send each other silly videos, emoji conversations that go on for hours, and even voice messages. My best friend Julia lives on the other side of town, but we FaceTime for at least an hour every day after school. It's like having a constant sleepover!Another big change is how we make plans and figure out what's going on socially. Back in the day, you'd have to spread the word in person about a birthday party or a meetup at the mall. But nowadays, we just create a group chat and send out details to everyone we want to invite. It's so much easier to get things organized when you can quickly chat with a whole bunch of people at once.Have you noticed the funny slang words and phrases that have popped up because of social media? My older sister is always using abbreviations like "IRL" for "in real life" and "FOMO" for "fear of missing out." Those didn't really exist until we could see what everyone was up to online. Now we have a whole new way to communicate that didn't exist for past generations.Of course, not everything has changed for the better with social media. My parents are always lecturing me about having too much "screen time" and not spending enough quality time face-to-face with people. They may have a point - it is nice to actually hang out with friends in the real world sometimes instead of just chatting through an app. But overall, I really appreciate how social media has made it so easy to keep in touch with my whole social circle in a fun and casual way.I also have to be careful about what I post and who I talk to online. My mom gave me a big talk about internet safety and protecting my privacy. You have to be smart about what personal information you share and make sure you're only communicating with people you actually know in real life. It's easy to misunderstand things over text too, so sometimes social media conversations can lead to arguments or hurt feelings. That's why our school has presentations to teach us about digital citizenship and being responsible online.But as long as you use some common sense, social media is a awesome way to express yourself, crack jokes with your friends, and always feel connected to your whole community. Every day when I get home from school, the first thing I do is hop online to see what everyone is up to. I'll read through our group messagethread to watch the funny meme videos my buddies have been sharing. Then I'll post a selfie and see how many likes and comments I get. It's just something that basically every kid does nowadays as a way to digitally hang out and chat.Sometimes my parents shake their heads at how differently my generation communicates. Their childhoods sounded pretty lonely - sitting at home waiting for a friend to call on the landline, or having to walk down the street to knock on someone's door. I don't think I could ever go back to that disconnected way of life! With all the social apps at my fingertips, I can instantly ping my whole crew to laugh at jokes, discuss our days, commiserate over homework, and make plans for the weekend. No matter how far apart we all live, social media brings us together into one seamless, free-flowing conversation throughout our daily lives.Will this always be the way kids socialize going forward? Maybe not - technology keeps evolving and who knows what'll be new and popular by the time I'm an adult. But for now, this is just how we communicate. Sending memes and DMs back and forth with our squad is like a social lifeline for kids these days. It's hard to even imagine what childhood would be like without having those little glowing screens to keep in constant contact with our friends and the rest of our online social world. Socialmedia may drive our parents a little crazy, but for us kids, it's become the present and future of hanging out with our besties and being part of the crowd!篇3Social Media: The Game Changer for How We Talk to Each OtherHi there! My name is Sam and I'm 10 years old. Today I want to tell you all about how social media has totally switched up the way we communicate and interact with our friends, families, and even people we've never met before.When my parents were kids, they had to actually call someone's house phone or go knock on their front door to talk to their friends and make plans to hang out. Can you imagine?! Having to coordinate times and locations without being able to just pop into a group chat? It sounds like a total nightmare to me.But then along came social media sites and apps like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Snapchat and TikTok. With the rise of the internet and smartphones, the whole game changed. Suddenly, we could be connected to our entire friend group with just a few taps on a screen.Group chats have been a real gamechanger for how my friends and I make plans and keep each other updated on the latest gossip from school. We have group chats for my basketball team, my neighbors on the same street, even one just for the girls in my class to share memes and talk about which boys are cute. No matter what we want to discuss, we can just open up the group chat!My parents are always saying "In my day, we had to actually call each other on the phone!" Can you even picture having to take turns on the phone to coordinate a weekend sleepover or pool party? With group chats, we can all just chime in whenever with our availability, and it takes no time at all to lock in a date and trade joke about who has to bring the snacks this time. No more rambling voicemail chains or playing phone tag!It's not just my close friend group that has been impacted either. Social media lets us instantly connect with people we might never have met otherwise. I follow tons of accounts for things I'm interested in like basketball, video games, and even some educational accounts about science and coding. By commenting on their posts, I've met other kids from all over the world who like the same stuff as me. A few weeks ago I was commenting back and forth with this kid in Australia and werealized we were both trying to beat the same level on a new game. Once we followed each other, we could strategize together over DMs to help each other get past that tricky spot. So cool to have an gaming buddy on the other side of the planet!My parents and teachers are always cautioning us about being careful on the internet and not over-sharing or talking to strangers. And I get that - you do have to be smart about what you post and who you allow to message you. But social media has also allowed me to join communities and make friends based on our common interests and bond over the things we love in a way that wasn't really possible before.And it's not just for fun and games either - social media helps me stay connected to my classwork too. We have a group chat for my Reading class where we can discuss the novels we're reading together. When I get stuck on a tricky concept, I can ask for clarity right in the chat instead of having to wait until the next class period. My teacher also posts reminders about assignments and test dates so nobody can claim they forgot. It's a awesome way to continue our learning outside the classroom.Speaking of my parents and teachers, social media has been pretty revolutionary for how they communicate with each other and with my classmates' families too. My teacher can post anupdate on the classroom Twitter account with photos of our latest project so our parents can see what we've been working on. And my mom is part of a private Facebook group for the parents in my grade where they can discuss volunteering for school events, classroom needs, or just provide (hopefully not too embarrassing) updates about their kids.For families like mine where my grandparents and relatives live across the country, social media has been a lifesaver for allowing us to keep in touch and share the latest pictures and videos. My grandma loves it when I go Live on Instagram to give her a virtual tour of my home or show off my latest art project. And on her birthday, my whole family got together on a Zoom video chat to see her face and wish her happy birthday in real time instead of just leaving a voicemail. My parents say social media has allowed our big extended family to feel much more connected despite the distance between us all.Of course, there are drawbacks to constantly being glued to our phones and devices. My parents are always saying "In my day, we went outside to play instead of burying our faces in screens all day!" Which like...rude. We still play outside! We just also have amazing tech that lets us message our friends while we do so. If I'm headed to the neighborhood park I can post on Instagramand rally the troops so nobody misses out on the fun. Then we can all meet up for a game of basketball or edit a goofy lip-sync video for TikTok right there in the park. It's the best of both worlds!Another downside is the constant pressure of sharing those perfectly edited photos and video clips. I'll admit, sometimes I get caught up in obsessing over capturing just the right spin on my skateboard or getting the perfect filter and caption for my latest pic. It can definitely be hard to just live in the moment. My parents lecture me all the time about "comparing my real life to others' digital highlights reel." Which is like...fair. When I'm just mindlessly scrolling through my feeds seeing my friends and influencers posting their most epic looking adventures and activities, it can make my regular everyday life feel kind of lame in comparison. I have to remind myself that those posts are all hyper-curated to show the very best version, not the full behind-the-scenes reality.At the end of the day though, I really do think social media has enhanced my ability to communicate and form connections in incredible ways. Sure, it has some downsides and definitely needs to be balanced out. I still love making silly handwritten notes to pass around in class, hosting real-life game nights withfriends, and going on adventures out in the real world without feeling compelled to share it all online every second.But overall, social media has helped me keep closer bonds with my friends and family both near and far. It's allowed me to meet new people who share my niche interests. It gives me a creative outlet to express myself through words, images, and videos. And it helps me learn and be exposed to new ideas and perspectives from kids in all different places and walks of life.I know it's still a relatively new technology in the grand scheme of things, but I can't even imagine what life was like before we could just open an app and instantly be connected to the world around us. For better or worse, social media has completely revolutionized human communication and interaction - and it's only going to keep evolving and shaping how we connect moving forward. So in the wise words of a viral TikTok dance...I'm just going to keep scrolling, double tapping, and connecting. Peace!。

2023届浙江省台州市高三下学期第二次教学质量评估英语试题(2)一、听力选择题1. What do we learn from the conversation?A．The woman found the essay very difficult.B．The essay was difficult to complete in half an hour.C．The woman found the essay easy.2. How does Jack feel now?A．Confident.B．Discouraged.C．Pleased.3. What time is it now?A．8:05 p.m.B．8:00 p.m.C．7:55 p.m.4. Why is the woman unhappy with Jason？A．He broke a company rule.B．He was absent from work.C．He lost an important report.5. Where will the man spend the afternoon?A．At home.B．At a park.C．At a friend's.二、听力选择题6. 听下面一段较长对话，回答以下小题。

1. What is the conversation mainly about?A．How bees find the direction.B．How bees provide food for others.C．How bees share information with each other.2. How does the bee show the food is nearby?A．By going around in circles.B．By pointing toward it.C．By flying fast.3. What do we know about the man?A．He is a student.B．He is studying biology.C．He is interested in insects.7. 听下面一段较长对话，回答以下小题。

面对面用手机聊天引发的观点英语作文全文共3篇示例，供读者参考篇1With the widespread use of smartphones, face-to-face communication has been greatly impacted. People nowadays tend to use their phones to chat with others even when they are in a face-to-face conversation. This behavior has sparked debates and discussions among individuals, with some arguing that it is rude and disrespectful, while others believe that it is simply a reflection of the changing times. In this essay, we will explore the different perspectives on face-to-face chatting using smartphones.On one hand, many people believe that using smartphones to chat during face-to-face interactions is impolite and disrespectful. They argue that by focusing on their phones rather than the person in front of them, individuals are showing a lack of interest and attention. This can make the other person feel unimportant and undervalued. Additionally, constantly checking and replying to messages can disrupt the flow of the conversation and hinder meaningful communication. Some even argue that it can lead to misunderstandings andmisinterpretations, as tone and emotions are lost in text messages.On the other hand, supporters of using smartphones for chatting during face-to-face interactions argue that it is a common and acceptable practice in today's digital age. They believe that technology has changed the way we communicate and that using phones to chat is simply a new form of social interaction. In many cases, chatting on smartphones allows individuals to multitask and be more efficient with their time. It also provides an opportunity to stay connected with others, especially in a world where everyone is constantly on the go.Despite the different perspectives on this issue, it is important for individuals to consider the feelings and boundaries of others when using smartphones during face-to-face conversations. While technology has its benefits, it should not come at the expense of meaningful and respectful interactions with others. Finding a balance between using smartphones for communication and engaging in face-to-face conversations is key to fostering healthy relationships and maintaining social etiquette in today's digital world.篇2With the prevalence of smartphones, face-to-face communication has taken a back seat as people increasingly turn to their devices for chatting and socializing. While this may seem like a convenient way to connect with others, many argue that it is weakening our ability to communicate effectively in real-life situations.One of the main concerns with chatting on smartphones instead of face-to-face is the lack of nonverbal cues, such as facial expressions, body language, and tone of voice. These cues are essential for understanding the emotions and intentions of others, but they are often lost in digital communication. This can lead to misunderstandings, confusion, and even conflicts that could have been easily avoided in a face-to-face conversation.In addition, using smartphones for chatting can also lead to a decrease in empathy and compassion towards others. When we communicate through screens, we may be more likely to say things that we wouldn't say in person, leading to a loss of social etiquette and sensitivity. This can harm our relationships with others and make us less understanding of their feelings and perspectives.Furthermore, constantly chatting on smartphones can also distract us from the world around us. Whether we're at a socialgathering, out for a meal, or even just walking down the street, we may be more focused on our devices than on the people and environment around us. This can make us less present in the moment and hinder our ability to fully engage with our surroundings.Despite these drawbacks, there are also benefits to using smartphones for chatting. For example, we can easily stay connected with friends and family who are far away, share moments and updates in real-time, and access a wide range of information and resources at our fingertips. This can enhance our relationships and keep us informed and entertained.In conclusion, while chatting on smartphones can be convenient and beneficial in many ways, it is important to remember the value of face-to-face communication. By making an effort to engage with others in person, we can strengthen our relationships, improve our communication skills, and stay present in the world around us. Finding a balance between digital and real-life communication is key to maintaining healthy and fulfilling connections with others. Let's not let our smartphones hinder our ability to truly connect with the people in our lives.篇3Facing face-to-face chat on the phone is a common phenomenon in today's society. With the development of technology, people are becoming more reliant on their smartphones for communication, even when they are in close proximity to each other. This trend has sparked a debate on the effects of face-to-face chat on the phone, with some arguing that it hinders interpersonal communication and others suggesting that it has its benefits.One of the main arguments against face-to-face chat on the phone is that it hinders meaningful interpersonal communication. When two people are physically together but are engaged in separate conversations on their phones, it can lead to a sense of disconnection and a lack of presence in the moment. This can be detrimental to building strong relationships and fostering a sense of intimacy between individuals.Furthermore, face-to-face chat on the phone can be seen as disrespectful and rude. When one person is constantly checking their phone or responding to messages during a conversation, it can convey a sense of disinterest and lack of attention to the other person. This can lead to feelings of frustration and annoyance, especially if the individual feels like they are being ignored or undervalued.On the other hand, some argue that face-to-face chat on the phone can have its benefits. For example, using smartphones to communicate can be more convenient and efficient in certain situations. It allows individuals to respond quickly to messages, check important emails, and stay connected with others, even when they are physically apart. This can be especially useful in today's fast-paced world where time is limited and communication needs to be instant.Additionally, face-to-face chat on the phone can also be a way to maintain relationships with long-distance friends and family members. With the ability to video chat or send messages instantly, individuals can stay connected with loved ones who are far away and feel like they are a part of each other's lives, despite the distance. This can help to strengthen relationships and foster a sense of closeness between individuals who may not have the opportunity to see each other in person regularly.In conclusion, the debate over face-to-face chat on the phone is ongoing, with valid points on both sides of the argument. While it can hinder interpersonal communication and be seen as disrespectful in certain situations, it can also have its benefits in terms of convenience and maintaining relationships with others. Ultimately, it is important for individuals to find abalance between using their smartphones for communication and being present in the moment when interacting with others face-to-face. By being mindful of how and when they use their phones, individuals can ensure that they are maintaining meaningful connections with others while also reaping the benefits of modern technology.。

The Behavior of Interest RatesEugene F.FamaUniversity of ChicagoThe evidence in Fama and Bliss(1987)that forward interest rates forecast future spot interest rates for horizons beyond a year repeats in the out-of-sample1986–2004 period.But the inference that this forecast power is due to mean reversion of the spot rate toward a constant expected value no longer seems valid.Instead,the predict-ability of the spot rate captured by forward rates seems to be due to mean reversion toward a time-varying expected value that is subject to a sequence of apparently permanent shocks that are on balance positive to mid-1981and on balance negative thereafter.A forward interest rate is the rate one can lock in now for a commitment to buy a one-period bond in the future.This leads naturally to the hypothesis that forward rates forecast future spot(one period)interest rates.Early tests of this hypothesis largely use US Treasury bills,and the results are rather negative.Forward rates do not seem to predict spot rates,except perhaps a month or two ahead[Hamburger and Platt(1975),Shiller,Campbell,and Schoenholtz(1983),Fama(1984)].Fama and Bliss (1987)find,however,that when the forecast horizon is extended,longer-term forward rates have strong power to forecast spot rates.They attri-bute this forecast power to slow mean reversion of the spot rate that only becomes evident over long horizons.Figure1raises suspicion about this story.The figure shows the path of the updated one-year spot rate used by Fama and Bliss(1987),along with the spread of the five-year forward rate over the one-year spot rate,f(5:t)–r(t). There is lots of variation in the spot rate,but its dominant feature during 1952–2004is upward movement to mid-1981,followed by a long decline to the end-of-the-sample period.The spot rate is1.8in June1952,it peaks at15.8in August1981,and finishes at2.7%at the end of2004.This long swing in the spot rate may be the result of slow mean reversion,but the path of the five-year forward-spot spread suggests that such mean rever-sion does not explain why forward rates forecast longer-term changes in the spot rate.If the five-year forward-spot spread is driven by predictions of the long-term swing in the spot rate,f(5:t)–r(t)should be more often positive before August1981,when the spot rate rises,and more often negative thereafter,when the spot rate falls.There is no such pattern in the forward-spot spread.In fact,it is more often positive and on average The comments of Kenneth French,Maureen O’Hara(the editor),and two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged.Address correspondence to Graduate School of Business,University of Chicago, 5807S.Woodlawn Avenue,Chicago,IL60637,or email:eugene.fama@.ÓThe Author2006.Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies.All rights reserved.For permissions,please email:journals.permissions@.doi:10.1093/rfs/hhj019Advance Access publication January20,2006 at Harbin Institute of Technology on November 1, 2013 / Downloaded fromabout three times larger after August 1981than before.In short,the long swing in the spot rate during 1952–2004may be due to slow mean reversion,but Figure 1and the more formal tests below suggest that any such slow mean reversion is not the source of the forecast power of forward rates.One possibility is that the forecast power of forward rates in Fama and Bliss (1987)is sample specific.We shall see,however,that forward rates actually show more power to forecast spot rates in the post-1985out-of-sample period.What is the source of this forecast power if not mean reversion of the spot rate?The answer I suggest and test is that the long up and down swing in the spot rate during 1952–2004is largely the result of permanent shocks to the long-term expected spot rate that are on balance positive to mid-1981and negative thereafter.The power of forward rates to forecast spot rates then comes from a transitory component of the spot rate,which produces what I call local mean reversion,toward the spot rate’s current long-term expected value.The economic story to explain the long swing in the spot rate during 1952–2004centers on the behavior of inflation.There was little prior experience with a fiduciary currency when the right to exchange currency for gold was discontinued in 1971,and it is reasonable that the high inflation and interest rates that followed were a surprise.It is also reason-able that the experience led market participants to rationally predict that a fiduciary currency (a currency that is not backed by a commodity like gold)implied permanently higher expected inflation.In other words,the preceding positive shocks to expected inflation were judged to be perma-nent.It turns out,however,that the Federal Reserve (and other central -4-20246810121416DateR a t e Figure 1Spot rate,r (t )(solid line)and five-year forward-spot spread,f (5:t )–r (t )(dashed line).The Review of Financial Studies /v 19n 22006360The Behavior of Interest Ratesbanks)won what was a long-odds game;they learned how to manage a fiduciary currency to bring about low inflation and interest rates.The result is a sequence of mostly negative permanent shocks to the spot rate. This story can explain why the spot rate appears to be slowly mean reverting in Figure1,but the apparent mean reversion is missed by the forecasts of changes in the spot rate in forward-spot spreads.The model I propose for the spot rate rings somewhat true to readers of the literature on dynamic multifactor term structure models,for example, Chen and Scott(1993),Duffee(2002),and Dai and Singleton(2002).The prime goal in these articles is to explain the evidence of Fama and Bliss (1987),Campbell and Shiller(1991),and others about how the term structure of yields and the term structure of one-period expected returns on bonds vary through time.In other words,modern dynamic term structure models basically attempt to capture all the stylized facts about the behavior of the term structure.As in Litterman and Scheinkman(1991),the work on dynamic term structure models typically concludes that three factors,related to the level, slope,and‘‘twist’’of the term structure,drive yields and one-period returns. The first two of these factors are important in determining the time-series behavior of the spot rate.Thus,Duffee(2002:438–439)concludes that Level shocks correspond to near-permanent changes in interest rates and only minimal changes in expected excess returns.Slope shocks correspond to business-cycle-length fluctuations in both interest rates and expected excess returns to bonds,while twist shocks correspond to short-lived‘flight to quality’variations in expected excess returns. These statements about how level and slope shocks affect interest rates agree somewhat with the evidence presented here but not entirely.In my terms,the quote above says that the spot rate has a slow mean-reverting component(the result of near-permanent level shocks)and a more rapid (business-cycle-length)mean-reverting component(due to slope shocks). My results agree that there are business-cycle-length mean-reverting swings in the spot rate.But the evidence suggests that mean reversion is toward a nonstationary long-term mean.In other words,the level shocks in the quote above are permanent not near permanent.Similar comments apply to Balduzzi,Das,and Foresi(1998).They estimate a model for the spot rate like the one that emerges from the dynamic multi-factor term structure literature.In their world,the spot rate reverts toward a moving mean,which is a continuous time version of a stationary but slowly mean-reverting first-order autoregression(AR1).Again,this is in contrast to my evidence that the spot rate is indeed mean reverting but toward a nonstationary mean,which is the result of a sequence of permanent shocks. Another strand of the term structure literature merits discussion. Spurred by Hamilton(1988),many papers estimate regime-switching361The Review of Financial Studies/v19n22006models for the spot rate[for example,Gray(1996),Ang and Bekaert (2002)].In these models,the number of parameters to be estimated grows rapidly with the number of spot rate regimes.As a result,two or at most three regimes are allowed.Perhaps because estimating many parameters implies low power,identifying regimes is typically mired in uncertainty.Moreover,if I am right and the spot rate is subject to a sequence of permanent shocks,two or three regimes may not suffice.Simpler but more flexible approaches to allowing for regimes,like that used here, may better capture the process.Finally,the term structure literature has become quite formal,with high barriers to entry.(Those not facile with continuous time models and their estimation need not apply.)This is unavoidable,given the ambitious tasks undertaken.For example,as noted above,dynamic multifactor term structure models attempt to explain all the stylized facts about the term structures of one-period expected returns and yields.Capturing everything in one model requires lots of structure and advanced statistical methods.One of my goals is to show that when the task(understanding the behavior of the spot interest rate and the forecasts of spot rates in forward rates)is more limited,simple transparent methods can still provide evidence that poses new challenges to be absorbed by more all-encompassing formal models.The article proceeds as follows.Section I sets up the logic of the tests of forward rates as predictors of spot rates.Section II updates the evidence in Fama and Bliss(1987)that over longer horizons forward rates forecast future spot rates.The important new result is that this forecast power is not due to the long up and down swing of the spot rate during1952–2004, which is largely missed by the forecasts in forward rates.Thus,if bond pricing is rational,the long-term swing in the spot rate during the sample period must be the result of shocks viewed as permanent by market participants.Section III tests a model in which the spot rate indeed has a time-varying long-term expected value,and all predictability of the spot rate is due to mean reversion toward the current long-term expected value.The model is simple,but it provides a powerful explanation of the behavior of the spot rate,and the local mean reversion it documents seems to fully capture the forecasts of spot rates in forward rates.Section IV tests the model of section III against the alternatives of Baludzzi,Das,and Foresi (1998)and Duffee(2002)in which local mean reversion is toward a long-term expected value that is slowly mean reverting rather than nonstation-ary.The evidence seems to favor nonstationarity.Section V concludes. 1.The Logic of Forward Rate Predictions of the Spot RateThe data[from the Center for Research in Security Prices(CRSP)of the University of Chicago]are imputed end-of-month prices,P(1:t),...,P(5:t), 362of one-year to five-year US Treasury discount bonds that pay $1at maturity.[Bliss (1997)details how the prices are calculated and provides empirical comparisons with alternative methods.]The sample period is from June,1952to December,2004(henceforth 1952–2004).My term structure notation follows Fama and Bliss (1987).The con-tinuously compounded return on an x -year bond bought at time t and sold at t þx –y ,when it has y years to maturity ish x ;y :t þx Ày ðÞ¼p y :t þx Ày ðÞÀp x :t ðÞ,ð1Þwhere p (x :t )is the natural log of P (x :t ).Symbols before a colon are the maturities that define a variable,and the symbol after the colon is the time when the variable is observed.For example,h (5,1:t þ4)is the four-year return from t to t þ4on a bond with five years to maturity at t .The x -year yield to maturity,r (x :t ),on a bond with x years to maturity at t isr x :t ðÞ¼Àp x :t ðÞ:ð2ÞThe yield on a one-year bond,called the spot rate,is r (1:t ).Understanding the behavior of the spot rate and the predictions of the spot rate in forward rates is the goal of the article.To simplify the notation,r (1:t)is henceforth r (t ).The time t forward rate for the year from t þx –1to t þx isf x :t ðÞ¼p x À1:t ðÞÀp x :t ðÞ¼r x :t ðÞÀr x À1:t ðÞ:ð3ÞFor example,the five-year forward rate,f (5:t ),is the rate for the year from t þ4to t þ 5.The definition of a return in Equation (1)implies that the price of an x -year bond can be expressed in terms of the one-year returns to be observed over the life of the bond,p x :t ðÞ¼Àh x ;x À1:t þ1ðÞÀh x À1;x À2:t þ2ðÞÀ…Àr t þx À1ðÞ:ð4ÞOr,taking expected values,E t ,at time t ,p x :t ðÞ¼ÀE t h x ;x À1:t þ1ðÞÀE t h x À1;x À2:t þ2ðÞÀ…ÀE t r t þx À1ðÞ:ð5ÞIn words,the raw price P (x :t )is the present value of the $1to be received at t þx ,discounted at the expected returns on the bond over the remaining years of its life.Like Equation (4),Equation (5)is a tautology,implied by the definition of returns.Equation (5)nevertheless has economic content,and it is theThe Behavior of Interest Rates363The Review of Financial Studies/v19n22006foundation for the tests of forward rates as predictors of spot rates.Thus, if we interpret the expected values in Equation(5)as rational(the best possible,given information available at t),then Equation(5)says that the price contains rational forecasts of the returns on the bond over the remaining years of its life.The forecast of specific interest here is E t r(tþx–1),the expected value of the spot rate to be observed at the beginning of the last year in the life of the x-year bond.To focus on E t r(t+x–1),group(sum)the first x–1terms in Equation (5)and write the price asp x:tðÞ:ð6ÞðÞÀE t r tþxÀ1ðÞ¼ÀE t h x;1:tþxÀ1Substituting Equation(6)into the forward rate expression Equation(3) and subtracting the spot rate givesf x:tðÞÀr tðÞ¼E t r tþxÀ1ðÞÀr tðÞ½ð7Þ½ :ðÞÀr xÀ1:tþE t h x;1:tþxÀ1ðÞIn words,the forward-spot spread,f(x:t)–r(t),is the expected change in the spot rate from t to tþx–1,plus the spread of the expected(x–1)-year return on an x-year bond from t to tþx–1over the time t yield on an(xÀ1)-year bond.Equation(4)implies that Equation(7)holds for realized returns as well as for expected values,ðÞÀr tðÞ½f x:tðÞÀr tðÞ¼r tþxÀ1ð8Þ½ :ðÞðÞÀr xÀ1:tþh x;1:tþxÀ1Equation(8)implies that there are two complementary regressions that split the information in the forward-spot spread between the two terms of Equation(7),r tþxÀ1ðÞð9Þ½ þe tþxÀ1ðÞÀr tðÞðÞÀr tðÞ¼aþc f x:tðÞðÞ¼Àaþ1Àch x;1:tþxÀ1ðÞÀr xÀ1:tð10ÞðÞ:½ Àe tþxÀ1ðÞÀr tðÞf x:tThe slope c in Equation(9)measures the proportion of the variation through time in the forward-spot spread,f(x:t)Àr(t),that can be attributed to variation in E t r(tþxÀ1)Àr(t),the rational forecast of the change in the spot rate from t to tþxÀ1.A reliably positive c implies that the forward-spot spread has power to forecast the change in the spot rate.Variants of regression Equation(9)provide the tests of the information in forward rates about future spot rates.As indicated by the notation,Equation(8)implies that the intercepts in Equation(9)and(10)sum to zero,the slopes sum to1.0,and the residuals364The Behavior of Interest Ratessum to zero period by period.In this sense,the two regressions provide an exact split of the variation in the forward-spot spread between the expected change in the spot rate and the expected value of the(x–1)-year return premium in Equation(7).We shall see,however,that for forecasts of the spot rate more than a year ahead(x>2),the slopes in Equation(9)are not distinguishable from1.0;that is,we cannot reject the hypothesis that all variation in forward-spot spreads is due to expected changes in the spot rate.A potential problem in regressions Equation(9)and(10)is that thesplit of variation in the forward-spot spread between the expected change in the spot rate and the expected value of the(x–1)-year return premium need not be constant through time.This issue is discussed in detail in Fama and Bliss(1987).Suffice it to say that if c is time varying,estimating it as a constant understates the extent to which forward rates forecast future spot rates.2.Forecasting Changes in the Spot Rate with Forward-Spot SpreadsTable1summarizes estimates of regression Equation(9)to forecast changes in the spot rate.Look first at the pre-1986period of Fama and Bliss(1987).The slope in the regression of the one-year change in the spot rate,r(t+1)–r(t),on the two-year forward-spot spread,f(2:t)–r(t),is0.22(t¼0.65).Thus,there is not much evidence that the forward-spotspread predicts the change in the spot rate a year ahead.As the forecast horizon is extended,the slopes in Equation(9)increase.In the regression to predict four-year changes in the spot rate,the slope is1.46(t¼4.72).Thus,the five-year forward-spot spread,f(5:t)–r(t),shows power to predict the change in the spot rate four years ahead.The regression R2 also increase from0.01for forecasts of one-year changes in the spot rate to0.39for four-year changes.Thus,during1953–1985,f(5:t)–r(t)cap-tures39%of the variance of four-year changes in the spot rate.11The method of Hansen and Hodrick(1980)is used to adjust the standard errors of regression coefficients for residual autocorrelation due to the overlap of monthly observations on annual and multi-year variables.There is evidence that the volatility of interest rates changes through time,and the variation seems to be related to the level of interest rates[for example,Ang and Bekaert(2002)].Thus,there is a potential heteroscedasticity problem in regressions like those in Table1,which suggests that the method of Newey and West(1987)should be used to adjust for residual heteroscedasticity as well as autocorrela-tion.The Newey–West method is unattractive here,however,because it down-weights residual auto-correlations that should be taken at face value since they are the result of observation overlap.More important,in the regressions in Table1and Table3(below),changes through time in residual volatility seem to be unrelated to the explanatory variables,so they do not pose inference problems.The correla-tions between squared values of the regression residuals and the regression-fitted values are close to zero, typically less than0.005.This is probably due to the fact that the main explanatory variables are forward-spot spreads(and,later,other spread variables),not levels of interest rates,and there seems to be little relation between variance changes and such spread variables.Finally,Cochrane and Piazzesi(2005)find that in term structure regressions for1953–2003with observation overlap like the regressions presented here,Hansen–Hodrick standard errors are close to those produced by bootstrap procedures.365At first glance,the regressions seem to fall apart when the data are extended to 2004.The slopes in Equation (9)for the full 1953–2004period are again positive,and they increase with the forecast horizon.But they are smaller than the slopes for 1953–1985,and only the slope for four-year changes in the spot rate is more than two standard errors from 0.0.Table 1Regressions to explain one-year to four-year changes in the spot rater t þx À1ðÞÀr t ðÞ¼a þbD þc f x :t ðÞÀr t ðÞ½ þd r t ðÞÀK t ðÞ½ þe t þx À1ðÞa b c d t (a )t (b )t (c )t (d )R 2The period for the one-year change (x ¼2)is June,1953–December,2004,619monthsx ¼2–0.050.11–0.190.410.00x ¼3–0.260.36–0.55 1.080.02x ¼4–0.490.61–0.74 1.640.07x ¼5–0.630.84–0.79 2.260.12The period for the one-year change (x ¼2)is June,1953–December,1985,391monthsx ¼20.140.220.480.650.01x ¼30.230.610.48 1.650.07x ¼40.27 1.200.50 3.160.23x ¼50.47 1.460.96 4.720.39The period for the one-year change (x ¼2)is January,1986–December,2004,228monthsx ¼2–0.600.37–1.270.810.02x ¼3–1.740.96–2.19 1.850.17x ¼4–2.88 1.38–3.97 3.440.44x ¼5–3.21 1.56–5.80 4.090.57The period for the one-year change (x ¼2)is June,1953–December,2004,619monthsx ¼2–0.88 1.190.49–2.29 2.59 1.800.10x ¼3–1.89 2.250.83–3.00 3.11 2.740.22x ¼4–3.13 3.58 1.26–4.57 4.60 4.490.44x ¼5–3.49 4.06 1.38–5.45 5.43 5.470.55The period for the one-year change (x ¼2)is June,1958–December,2004,559monthsx ¼2–0.02–0.16–0.06–1.330.03x ¼3–0.03–0.34–0.07–1.630.07x ¼4–0.05–0.45–0.08–1.690.10x ¼5–0.01–0.53–0.01–1.710.11The period for the one-year change (x ¼2)is June,1958–December,2004,559monthsx ¼2–0.86 1.62–0.36–2.44 3.16–3.000.21x ¼3–1.52 2.85–0.69–2.64 3.46–3.780.36x ¼4–2.11 3.90–0.92–3.17 4.17–4.590.50x ¼5–2.53 4.71–1.07–3.75 5.02–5.270.60The period for the one-year change (x ¼2)is June,1958–December,2004,559monthsx ¼2–0.74 1.58–0.22–0.42–1.90 3.07–0.65–2.860.21x ¼3–1.21 2.81–0.39–0.86–1.82 3.43–0.97–3.450.36x ¼4–2.52 3.970.41–0.72–3.33 4.29 1.11–2.730.51x ¼5–3.08 4.730.63–0.73–4.51 5.40 1.86–2.630.62r (t )is the one-year spot rate observed at t .f (x :t )is the forward rate observed at t for the year from t þx –1to t þx .D is a dummy variable that is 1.0for June,1953to August,1981.K (t )is the average value of the spot rate for the 60months ending in month t –1.The variables cover annual periods,but they are observed monthly.The standard errors of the regression coefficients are adjusted for autocorrelation due to the overlap of monthly observations on the change in the spot rate with the method of Hansen and Hodrick (1980).The t -statistics,t (a )to t (d ),are the regression coefficients divided by their standard errors.The regression R 2are adjusted for degrees of freedom.The Review of Financial Studies /v 19n 22006366The Behavior of Interest RatesThe regression R2are also rather trivial in the results for the overall period.Do the full-period results imply that forward rates lose their power to forecast the spot rate after1985?Table1shows that,if anything,the evidence of forecast power is stronger for1986–2004than for1953–1985. The regression slopes and R2in the estimates of Equation(9)for1986–2004are larger than for1953–1985.In the1986–2004regressions,R2rises from0.02for forecasts of one-year changes in the spot rate to0.57for four-year changes.2.1The Problem and a fixWhy do the estimates of regression(9)for1953–1985and1986–2004turn out much stronger than the estimates for the combined1953–2004period? The answer is in the regression intercepts in Table1and the path of the spot rate in Figure1.The intercept in Equation(9)is the average change in the spot rate left unexplained by the forward-spot spread.The inter-cepts for1953–1985are positive,and the intercepts for1986–2004are strongly negative.This suggests that the upward movement in the spot rate during much of1953–1985(Figure1)is largely a surprise to market participants as is the decline during1986–2004.Additional support for this view is in Table2,which shows average values of forward-spot spreads and changes in the spot rate.Average forward-spot spreads increase with maturity during1952–1984,which is in line with the fact that the spot rate on average increases.The positive intercepts in the spot rate change regressions for1953–1985say,however, that some of the average increase in the spot rate is missed by the forecasts of changes in the spot rate in forward-spot spreads.Bigger problems arise in the subsequent period,when the spot rate on average falls,but average forward-spot spreads are larger and increase more with maturity than in the earlier period.As a result,the intercepts in the spot rate change regressions for1986–2004(the average changes in the spot rate missed by forward-spot spreads)are more negative than the average changes in the spot rate.The problem in the spot rate change regressions for the full sample period is that they fit to the average change in the spot rate for the period, which is close to zero(–0.00%per year)and in sharp contrast to the offsetting average changes for1953–1985(0.19%)and1986–2004(–0.34% per year).As a result,the full-period regressions do not allow for the underestimates of changes in the spot rate from forward-spot spreads during the period to mid-1981when the spot rate rises and the over-estimates during the subsequent period when the spot rate declines.This leads to the false impression that forward-spot spreads have little power to predict changes in spot rates during1953–2004.The separate regres-sions for1953–1985and1986–2004partially solve the problem by367allowing the different average unexpected changes in the spot rate for the two periods to be absorbed by the regression intercepts,in this way somewhat absolving forward rates for their failure to pick up the two long swings in the spot rate.If this story has merit,there is a simple way to fix the spot rate regressions for the overall period so they can better isolate the variation in the spot rate that is predicted by forward spot spreads from variation left unexplained.Specifically,add a dummy variable,D ,to Equation (9)which is one for the period up to August,1981when the spot rate peaks and zero otherwise,r t þx À1ðÞÀr t ðÞ¼a þbD þc f x :t ðÞr t ðÞ½ þe t þx À1ðÞ:ð11ÞThe dummy variable allows for different average unexpected changes in the spot rate before and after August,1981.In this way,the regression for the full 1953–2004period can abstract from the failure of forward-spot spreads to predict the long upswing in the spot rate to August,1981and the subsequent long decline.The slope c in Equation (11)can then better identify variation in the spot rate that is predicted by forward-spot spreads.In effect,the dummy variable in Equation (11)takes a similar but more direct approach to forgiving forward rates for their failures,to better unmask their successes,than the intercepts in the subperiod esti-mates of Equation (9).The strategy of regression Equation (11)works.The intercepts in the estimates of Equation (11)are strongly negative,and the slopes for the dummy variable are strongly positive (Table 1).This is in line with the Table 2Summary statistics for annual forward-spot spreads,f (x :t )-r (t ),and annual changes in the spot rateMeanStandard deviation Mean Standard deviation Mean Standard deviation Monthly values of annual forward—spot spreadsJune,1952–December,2003June,1952–December,1984January,1985–December,2003x ¼20.410.700.230.700.710.59x ¼30.721.000.450.97 1.180.88x ¼40.891.200.51 1.05 1.53 1.17x ¼50.891.290.56 1.19 1.47 1.24Monthly values of annual changes in the spot rateJune,1953–December,2004June,1953–December,1985January,1986–December,2004r (t +1)–r (t )À0.00 1.640.19 1.73À0.34 1.41The forward-spot spread for maturity x is f (x :t )–r (t ),where f (x :t)is the forward rate observed at t for the year from t þx –1to t þx ,and r (t )is the one-year spot rate observed at t .The variables cover annual periods,but they are observed monthly.Mean indicates an average.The Review of Financial Studies /v 19n 22006368。

2024届云南省昆明市第一中学高三第十次月考英语试题一、阅读理解Some Innovative BuildingsCube Houses (Rotterdam, Netherlands)Inspiration: Trees in a forestSize: About one-fourth the size of a basketball courtAs a popular attraction, the 38 Cube Houses are also real houses that people live in! The cubes have concrete foundations and floors with a wood-frame living space on top. The furniture is tailor-made to fit the odd angles. Architect Piet Blom designed the homes based on the idea of “living as an urban roof”. Wonder Works (Pigeon Forge, the USA)Inspiration: A laboratory in an Italian-style villaSize: About nine-tenths the size of a football fieldLooking at the cracks in this building, you might think, Is it about to collapse? And how do they get palm trees to grow upside down? But the upside-down features are just for show. This indoor amusement park is actually pretty normal with more than 100 hands-on science exhibits and activities. Guangzhou Opera House (Guangzhou, China)Inspiration: Erosion (侵蚀) of rocks and landscapesSize: About 13 times the size of a football fieldThe Guangzhou Opera House was designed by Iraqi-born architect Zaha Hadid. Though nature inspired the architect, she used 21st-century construction and design methods to make her design a reality. GPS positioning and laser techniques helped shape the structure. Bubble Palace (Cannes, France)Inspiration: “Habitology”—the idea that habitats should use nature’s curves (曲线)Size: Almost three times the size of a basketball courtThis house may look like a space settlement, but it’s really a 10-bedroom palace. Made of cave-like bubbles, it also has ponds, waterfalls, swimming pools, an outdoor theater and views of the Mediterranean Sea. Architect Antti Lovag had the bubbles built out of iron bars covered with wire web and concrete, and then coated with a mix of fiberglass and plastic.1．Which building involves a visual trick?A．Cube Houses.B．Wonder Works.C．Guangzhou Opera House.D．Bubble Palace.2．What inspired the design of Zaha Hadid?A．Trees in a forest.B．A laboratory in a villa.C．A concept on habitat.D．A geographic phenomenon.3．Where is the smallest building of the four located?A．In China.B．In France.C．In Netherlands.D．In the USA．At first glance, 15-year-old Kenan Pala seems like a typical teenager, playing video games with his friends, but he also loves finance and economics and invests in the stock (股票) market. He founded Kids4Community, a nonprofit offering volunteer projects for kids, when he was just 12.The idea came out of his family’s experience. Pala’s parents came to the U.S. from Turkey in 1998 and founded a company. “We started very little here,” said Pala’s mother. “But for the help we got along the way, we wouldn’t have been where we are.” The Palas wanted their children to live by this lesson, so they encouraged them to give back to the community.Anyone can donate with Kids4Community, but its events are intended for kids. Pala’s organization aims to boost young people’s involvement in community efforts because many organizations don’t let children volunteer.Last month, Kids4Community volunteers made 2,000 hygiene kits containing shampoo, toothbrushes, toothpaste, and other supplies. Kids4Community organizes the event annually and distributes the kits to the needy through Christmas Day. In fall, the group’s efforts are focused on disaster victims. Over the years, it has made care packages for survivors of earthquakes and Hurricanes.Another key focus is homelessness — an issue that has taken on particular significance. Years ago, Pala was jogging along the beach when he came across a sickly baby seal (海豹), surrounded by people who were caring for it and calling for help. “Hours later, I saw a homeless person, also sick and needing help, but people were just ignoring him,” Pala said. Now, Kids4Community organizes initiatives both to meet physical needs of the homeless and give them a sense of dignity and hope.In the coming years, Pala wants to expand Kids4Community’s reach beyond San Diego and perhaps beyond California.4．What does the Pala family lesson convey?A．Responsibility.B．Forgiveness.C．Gratitude.D．Struggle. 5．What does Kids4Community mainly work on in autumn?A．Disaster relief.B．Supplies delivery.C．Disaster forecast.D．Supplies production.6．Why is Pala’s experience with the seal mentioned?A．To advocate wildlife conservation.B．To launch the initiatives for the homeless.C．To praise the warm-hearted people.D．To account for his attention to homelessness. 7．Which of the following best describes Pala?A．Disciplined and reliable.B．Committed and consistent.C．Insightful and intelligent.D．Public-spirited and enterprising.Joyce Loaiza lives alone, but when returning to her apartment at a senior community, she often has a chat with a friendly female voice. The 81-year-old is among the first in the United States to receive the robot ElliQ made by Intuition Robotics, which has been the only device using artificial intelligence specifically designed to address loneliness of the old.Looking like a small table light, the device has an eyeless, mouthless head. It remembers each user’s interests and their talks, helping create a special experience with each new discussion, which can be as deep as the meaning of life or as light as a small joke. “She’ll make comments like, ‘I would go outside if I had hands, but I can’t hold an umbrella,’” said Loaiza. ElliQ also plays music and provides spiritual sayings. It leads exercises, asks about the owner’s health, and gives reminders to take medicines and drink water. It can also support video calls and contact family, friends, or doctors in an emergency.The average user interacts with ElliQ more than 30 times a day and more than 90 percent report lower levels of loneliness, Intuition Robotics CEO Dor Skuler said.Brigham Young University professor Julianne Holt-Lunstad, who studies the effects of loneliness on health, worries that a device like ElliQ might have short-term helpful effects but it could make people less likely to seek human contact. She noted that the difficult feeling ofloneliness should push people to reconnect socially.Skuler and state officials agreed that ElliQ is not an alternative to human contact. But some older people cannot leave home or do not have many friends. Charlotte Taylor, director of an Area Agency on Aging, said Covid-19 left many older people more disconnected. Her agency has provided 300 ElliQs which, she believes, help the situation. She said, “People generally like her and she makes them smile.”8．What can we infer from Loaiza’s comments on ElliQ?A．It sometimes fails to be of any help.B．It is humorous and has the human touch.C．Some of its comments make no sense.D．It shows an interest in the outside world. 9．What concerns Holt-Lunstad about ElliQ?A．Its inefficiency to ease loneliness.B．Its failure to push people to reconnect.C．Its potential for being addictive.D．Its replacement for human interactions. 10．How does Taylor find ElliQ?A．Novel.B．Popular.C．Satisfying.D．Advanced. 11．What can be a suitable title for the text?A．Chatty Robot Helps Seniors Fight Loneliness B．AI-based Device Is to Dominate Elders’ LifeC．ElliQ: a Revolutionary Innovation in AI Field D．ElliQ: a Remarkable Assistant after Covid-19Even minor changes in behavior can have a positive environmental impact. Therefore, it is suggested to remove or reduce single-use plastic bags from your shopping trips, because the bags break down slowly, causing them to linger in landfills. But how long does a plastic bag really stick around?The Center for Biological Diversity estimates that it takes a bag roughly 1000 years to break down. The term “break down” is a little misleading, though. Plastic ends up photodegrading (光降解) from ultraviolet (紫外线) radiation because the majority of microorganisms cannot eat it. And even after the bags degrade, the micro-plastics they leave behind may still harm the environment.While 1000 years seems long, it is only an estimate. Since the invention of plastic bags inthe 1950s or so, humankind has never actually seen the substance break down in real time. Instead, scientists have adopted respirometry tests (呼吸运动测量法), which helps estimate the breakdown rate of an organic substance by measuring the CO2 that the microorganisms produce when breaking down the material. When an organic substance, such as food waste, is present, CO2 levels rise, which allows scientists to estimate the rate of breakdown. However, because plastic bags don’t produce any CO2,—microorganisms aren’t eating them, the bags are just sitting there. If buried in a landfill and sheltered from ultraviolet light, plastic bags will last a very long time.Bags have an impact on the environment beyond just their removal. It takes fossil fuels to make bags; one estimate puts this amount at 12 million barrels (桶) of oil annually. And after a bag has served its purpose in a consumer’s hands, it may then enter the food chain for wildlife. Plastic that builds up along the food chain is consumed by creatures like birds and fish.While reducing the use of plastic bags is a good idea, choosing a cloth bag might not be the habit that will help the environment the most. The carbon footprint left by the cloth bags must be countered by thousands of uses.12．What does the underlined word “linger” in Paragraph 1 probably mean?A．Reproduce.B．Integrate.C．Emerge.D．Last.13．What do we know about the breakdown of plastic bags?A．Its duration of 1000 years is an overestimate.B．Exposure to ultraviolet light is essential to it.C．Respirometry tests effectively estimate its rate.D．The level of CO2 released during it usually rises.14．What is Paragraph 4 mainly about?A．The multiple environmental costs of plastic bags.B．The consumption of fuels for plastic bag production.C．The harm of plastic bags to the food chain for wildlife.D．The challenge of removing plastic bags from the ecosystem.15．Which of the following is proposed according to the last paragraph?A．Declining plastic shopping bag offers.B．Reducing the production of plastic bags.C．Reusing the same cloth bag repeatedly.D．Switching from plastic bags to cloth ones.If you’re struggling to save money, you’re not alone. Less than half of Americans have enough emergency savings to cover at least three months’ expenses. 16 . Here are several practical ways to help you spend less. 17If you want to determine how to save money, you need to figure out how to spend less of it. Many bank statements include categorized spending reports. These can provide a good sense of where your money has been going and identify opportunities to reduce your costs. If you’re married, making this review process a shared task can help cut expenses and increase savings. Be a strategic grocery shopperWhile you’ll need to keep buying groceries despite higher prices, you can make an effort to avoid throwing away unused food. As you make your grocery list, think about what ended up being thrown away last time. Those who made a shopping list in advance throw away less food. 18 Break up with brand namesA comparison of ingredients and labels on things like noodles may show affordable alternatives to be just as nutritious and high-quality as the top-shelf ones. 19 . Try to find more affordable alternatives for any such brand-name household items you may be buying. Challenge yourself to a spending freezeOne way that can be effective in taking control of your finances is a spending freeze, during which you cut all unnecessary spending for a set period. 20 . The extra money you’ll have at the end of the month can be added to savings or used to pay down debt.A．Review your spending habitsB．Compare other banking optionsC．So take extra time to plan out your upcoming mealD．Saving money isn’t easy these days but it’s not impossibleE．Prices remain high on expenses such as housing, food and transportationF．This gives you a sense of just how much you’re spending on nonessentialsG．The same concept may apply to non-food items such as paper and hand soap二、完形填空On Sept. 17, 2022, a father and son set out to begin the first of three legs of the Ironmancompetition in Cambridge, Maryland. Jeff Agar, 59, and his son, Johnny Agar, 28, weren’t the 21 participants. Johnny has cerebral palsy (脑瘫), resulting in his difficulty walking and muscle weakness. Jeff would act as his arms and legs, 22 carrying the weight of his son throughout the race. To 23 as completion, competitors must complete a(n) 24 140 miles of swimming, bicycling and running in under 17 hours.From the day Johnny was born, Jeff and his wife refused to let their son be 25 by disability. 26 to show Johnny that he could pursue his dream of being an athlete, when he was 15 years old, they 27 him up with my Team Triumph, an organization that helps kids with 28 engage in endurance (耐力) sports.Johnny became 29 to racing, and Jeff wanted to be a part of it. Jeff began waking up at 4 am to run while 30 Johnny in a racing chair. Every morning, he 31 himself to run increasingly longer distances.After 16 hours, 55 minutes and 35 seconds, the father and son 32 the finish line together. As the crowd 33 and congratulated Johnny, Jeff kept a low 34 . “He didn’t want attention to his finish line moment,” says Johnny. “He wanted it to be 35 .”21．A．distinct B．typical C．ambitious D．amateur 22．A．consciously B．anxiously C．hopefully D．literally 23．A．qualify B．emerge C．serve D．continue 24．A．impressive B．smooth C．frightening D．exhausting 25．A．given away B．turned down C．taken on D．held back 26．A．Forced B．Discouraged C．Determined D．Prepared 27．A．signed B．cheered C．lifted D．brought 28．A．experiences B．difficulties C．capacities D．disabilities 29．A．sensitive B．attracted C．limited D．important 30．A．pushing B．comforting C．displaying D．treating 31．A．permitted B．warned C．drove D．persuaded 32．A．drew B．left C．spotted D．crossed 33．A．thanked B．surrounded C．encountered D．disturbed 34．A．voice B．rate C．profile D．grade 35．A．theirs B．mine C．yours D．his三、语法填空阅读下面材料, 在空白处填入适当的内容(1个单词)或括号内单词的正确形式。