美国缓慢的经济复苏
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Are We There Yet?我们已经到达目的地了吗？America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government canhelp a bit.虽然美国此次复苏的速度要比其以往大多数的恢复速度慢很多，但是政府还是能够帮上一点忙的。
“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on beh alf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.“美国，你将何去何从？”半个世纪前，杰克·凯鲁亚克代表垮掉的一代提出这个问题，成为威胁世界经济的不确定性因素之最。
同时，这个问题反映了美国选民最大的担忧。
选民们11月2号前往投票站为国会中期选举投票的时候，整个国家的失业率直逼10%。
他们应当做好准备，迎接漫长而又艰难的考验。
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.自20世纪30年代以来最严重的一次经济衰退于一年前结束了。
但是今年年初的复苏速度出奇缓慢，而这并不是因为经济衰退到无法恢复的程度。
GDP在第二季度的年增长速度只有1.6%，似乎一直无法实现突破。
在旨在刺激购房的临时税收优惠政策到期之后，楼市开始萎靡。
由于私营部门几乎没有创造工作机会，失业率很可能有增无减。
如果经济增长持续减速，那么美国经济又会重新陷入衰退。
整个夏天人们类似这样的担忧与日俱增。
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above st all speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.幸运地是，现在看来那些担忧是被夸大了。
第二季度国民生产总值(GDP)疲软的一部分原因是美国对中国的进口量临时剧增。
八月份相当可观的零售额和失业津贴的需求下降等最新数据显示，美国经济虽然仍然不景气，但是并没有进一步衰退。
历史经验表明，虽然在复苏初期经济情况会在一到两个季度内摇摆，但是几乎不会重新步入衰退。
目前来看，美国经济很可能将以2.5%（高于矢速）左右的速度缓慢增长，但是远不足以降低失业率。
Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak? That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy. When policy is loosened,demand rebounds. This recession was the result of a financial crisis. Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt. Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014. By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.既然美国通常都能从萧条中恢复，那么经济前景为什么还这么暗淡呢？这是因为以往大多数的经济衰退是由紧缩货币政策引起的。
放宽政策，需求就会回升。
而此次衰退是由金融危机引起的。
由于需要修复银行系统和重建资产负债表，金融危机过后的复苏过程通常成效甚微、速度缓慢。
一般说来，债务减免期大约持续七年，这意味着美国将会在2014年出现这种现象。
通过采取一些措施，个体家庭通常能够很快减轻债务负担，但是即使是乐观的预言家也不认为这个过程会快于三年半。
Battling on the bus正在战斗之中America’s biggest problem is that its politicians have yet to acknowledge that the economy is in for such a long, slow haul, let alone prepare for the consequences. A few brave officials are beginning to sound warnings that the jobless rate is likely to “stay high”. But the political debate is more about assigning blame for the recession than about suggesting imaginative ways to give more oomph to the recovery.美国最大的问题是政治家们尚未承认经济复苏是一个漫长而又缓慢的过程，更别提针对后果做出准备了。
一些有胆识的官员开始警告人们，失业率很可能会居高不下。
但是政治辩论更多的是推卸责任，而不是针对衰退提出富有想象力的的建议促进经济复苏。
Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s shift towards “big government” explains the economy’s weakness, and that high unemployment is proof that fiscal stimulus was a bad idea. In fact, most of the growth in government to date has been temporary and unavoidable; the longer-run growth in government is more modest, and reflects the policies of both Mr Obama and his predecessor. And the notion that high joblessness “proves” that stimulus failed is simply wrong. The mechanics of a financial bust suggest that without a fiscal boost the recession would have been much worse. 共和党人认为，巴拉克·奥巴马将重心转向“大政府”说明经济不景气，高失业率证明财政刺激政策是不明智的。
