QE到底是什么以及美国退出QE后的影响目录文献综述 (I)Abstract (II)1、What is QE？ (1)2、Comparison with other instruments (2)2.1Qualitative easing (2)2.2 Credit easing (2)2.3 Printing money (3)3、Why didn’t QE cause the inflation in America？4、The End Of The QE Era Is Upon Us, What's Next? (5)5、小组成员 (7)1.What is QE？First, let’s give the definition. What is QE?The QE means quantitative easing.Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank implements quantitative easing by buying specified amounts of financial assets from commercial banks and other private institutions, thus raising the prices of those financial assets and lowering their yield, while simultaneously increasing the monetary base. This is distinguished from the more usual policy of buying or selling short-term government bonds in order to keep interbank interest rates at a specified target value.Expansionary monetary policy to stimulate the economy typically involves the central bank buying short-term government bonds in order to lower short-term market interest rates. However, when short-term interest rates have reached or are close to reaching zero, this method can no longer work. Quantitative easing may then be used by monetary authorities to further stimulate the economy by purchasing assets of longer maturity than short-term government bonds, and thereby lowering longer-term interest rates further out on the yield curve.Quantitative easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target. Risks include the policy being more effective than intended in acting against deflation (leading to higher inflation in the longer term, due to increased money supply), or not being effective enough if banks do not lend out the additional reserves. According to the International Monetary Fund and various economists, quantitative easing undertaken since the global financial crisis of 2007–08 has mitigated some of the adverse effects of the crisis.Instead of printing money and letting the banks loan it to borrowers of their choosing, the Fed is making dollars more plentiful by loaning new money to the Treasury, via the purchase of Treasury bonds.That new money pushed into the economy is a shift in the monetary supply curve, making it easier for companies or individuals to borrow and expand.The hope is that corporate expansion will create more jobs. However, most businesses already have excess capacity. They cannot justify borrowing money to expand.At the same time, quantitative easing makes it less likely for companies to expand without borrowing money. The threat of inflation cripples entrepreneurial activity. Businesses wisely avoid spending today’s expensive dollars on projects whose future success can only be measured in dollars of reduced value.So, although printing money may help corporate expansion based on borrowing, it certainly reduces corporate investment using capital savings.These low interest rates encourage borrowing money, for example to purchase real estate. But even though investing in real estate may increase personal wealth, it does not help stimulate the economy.2. Comparison with other instruments2.1 Qualitative easingQuantitative easing is an increase in the size of the balance sheet of the central bank through an increase monetary liabilities (base money), holding constant the composition of its assets. Asset composition can be defined as the proportional shares of the different financial instruments held by the central bank in the total value of its assets. An almost equivalent definition would be that quantitative easing is an increase in the size of the balance sheet of the central bank through an increase in its monetary liabilities that holds constant the (average) liquidity and riskiness of its asset portfolio.Qualitative easing is a shift in the composition of the assets of the central bank towards less liquid and riskier assets, holding constant the size of the balance sheet (and the official policy rate and the rest of the list of usual suspects). The less liquid and more risky assets can be private securities as well as sovereign or sovereign-guaranteed instruments. All forms of risk, including credit risk (default risk) are included.2.2Credit easingCredit easing resembles quantitative easing in one respect: It involves an expansion of the central bank's balance sheet. However, in a pure QE regime, the focus of policy is the quantity of bank reserves, which are liabilities of the central bank; the composition of loans and securities on the asset side of the central bank's balance sheet is incidental. Indeed, although the Bank of Japan's policy approach during the QE period was quite multifaceted, the overall stance of its policy was gauged primarily in terms of its target for bank reserves. In contrast, the Federal Reserve's credit easing approach focuses on the mix of loans and securities that it holds and on how this composition of assets affects credit conditions for households and businesses.Credit easing involves increasing the money supply by the purchase not of government bonds but of private-sector assets, such as corporate bonds and residentialmortgage–backed securities. In 2010, the Federal Reserve purchased $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities in order to support the sagging mortgage market. These purchases increased the monetary base in a way similar to a purchase of government securities.2.3Printing moneyQuantitative easing has been nicknamed "printing money" by some members of the media, central bankers, and financial analysts. However, central banks state that the use of the newly created money is different in QE. With QE, the newly created money is used to buy government bonds or other financial assets, whereas the term printing money usually implies that newly created money is used to directly finance government deficits or pay off government debt (also known as monetizing the government debt).Central banks in most developed nations (e.g., the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, and the EU) are prohibited from buying government debt directly from the government and must instead buy it from the secondary market. This two-step process, where the government sells bonds to private entities that in turn sell them to the central bank, has been called "monetizing the debt" by many analysts. The distinguishing characteristic between QE and monetizing debt is that with the former, the central bank creates money to stimulate the economy, not to finance government spending. Also, the central bank has the stated intention of reversing the QE when the economy has recovered (by selling the government bonds and other financial assets back into the market). The only effective way to determine whether a central bank has monetized debt is to compare its performance relative to its stated objectives. Many central banks have adopted an inflation target. It is likely that a central bank is monetizing the debt if it continues to buy government debt when inflation is above target and if the government has problems with debt financing.3. Why didn’t QE cause the inflation in AmericaLooking through a general perspective of supply and demand, the increase in money should reduce the value of the currency itself, the domestic inflation should happen. However, this did not happen, Americans are still at a low price to buy high quality goods. Why?Because of the QE policy, the interest rate bring the zero or approximate zero. This force the domestic investor in America transfer their capital to other nations who has higher capital. On the other hand, U.S. dollar is the world currency, American people could use U.S. dollar to purchase commodities in other countries. For the reasons above, the U.S. dollar circulates to all over the world and the commodities produced by other countries circulates to the America continuously. So there will not happen currency inflation in the America.But the foreign currency reserve of the countries exporting to the American keep inflating.Just like china, the central bank of China, In order to purchase back the U.S. dollar that China forced to print CNY to exchange the U.S. dollar as foreign currency reserve. As a result, the commodity of China keep circulating out at the same time the CNY keep increasing, result to the currency inflation in China.4. The End Of The QE Era Is Upon Us, What's Next?4.1The dollar is going to rise as interest rates rise.It is all well and good for the Fed to say interest rates will stay low for a long time but without QE that cannot be guaranteed. The only way to ensure low interest rates is for the Fed to buy securities–mainly bonds–and force their price up in what amounts to a market corner.Once the Fed stops the processes of making a market corner then interest rates will revert to their true market levels, which, unless the world has changed forever, are significantly higher than today’s rates.The influx of QE money has without a doubt been largely responsible for the current equity market rallies in the U.S., and as QE ends the chances of this bull market continuing are reduced. The market is high. Without billions of new money being pumped into the system like clockwork, where is the money to continue to drive equities going to come from?There is meant to be a switchover from public support of economic growth to private sector drivers. This changeover is meant to be timed for the QE taper.It might be an economic masterpiece if this transition occurs without a hiccup. That hiccup is likely to be upon us. The strengthening dollar is the “800 pound canary in the coal mine.”Dow Jones Industrial Average(2009-2014)。
