The business cycle - Arkansas State University

The Economist August 29th 2020 Business 55Depending on whom you ask, Califor-nia is a leader in clean energy or a cau-tionary tale. Power outages in August prompted stern critiques from Republi-cans. “In California”, D onald Trump tweeted, “D emocrats have intentionally implemented rolling blackouts—forcing Americans in the dark.” In addition to pro-voking outrage and derision, however, the episode is also likely to inspire investment.The Golden State has long been Ameri-ca’s main testing ground for green compa-nies. Californians buy half of all electric cars sold in America. Theirs is the country’s largest solar market. As California deals with heat waves, fires and a goal of carbon-free electricity by 2045, the need for a reli-able grid is becoming ever more obvious.For years firms competed to generate clean power in California. Now a growing num-ber are vying to store and manage it, too. August’s blackouts have many causes,including poor planning, an unexpected lack of capacity and sweltering heat in not just California but nearby states from which it sometimes imports power. Long before the outages, however, electricity op-erators were anxious about capacity. Cali-fornia’s solar panels become less useful in the evening, when demand peaks. In No-vember state regulators mandated that utilities procure an additional 3.3 gigawatts (gw ) of capacity, including giant batteries that charge when energy is abundant and can sell electricity back to the grid.Too few such projects have come online to cope with the surge in demand for air-conditioning in the scorching summer. But more are sprouting across the state. On Au-gust 19th ls Power, an electricity firm backed by private equity, unveiled a 250-megawatt (mw ) storage project in San Die-go, the largest of its kind in America. In July the county of Monterey said Vistra Energy,a Texan power company, could build as much as 1.2gw of storage.The rooftop solar industry stands to benefit from a new Californian mandate that requires new homes to install panels on their roofs from this year. Sunrun, the market leader, is increasingly pairing such residential installations with batteries. In July, for instance, the company said it had won contracts with energy suppliers in the Bay Area to install 13mw of residential solar and batteries. These could supply power to residents in a blackout or feed power into the grid to help meet peak demand. Sunrunis so confident in its future that it has bid $3.2bn for Vivint Solar,its main rival.Another way to stave offoutages is to curb demand.Enel,a European power company,has contracts with local utilities to work with large commercial and indus-trial clients.When demand rises,Enel pays customers to reduce energy consumption,easing demand on the grid.A company called OhmConnect offers something sim-ilar for homeowners.Even as such offerings scale up,the need for reliability means that fossil fuels will not disappear just yet.On September 1st California’s regulators will vote on whether to delay the retirement of four natural-gas plants in light of the outages.The state remains intent on decarbonising its power system over the next 25years.But progress may not move in a straight line.7NEW YO RKBusinesses compete to battle California’s blackoutsEnergy utilitiesLitMany big companies may be struggling with depressed sales, but these are busy times for bribery-busters. Mexico is abuzz over allegations by an ex-boss of Pe-mex, the state oil giant, that several senior politicians received bungs from compa-nies including Odebrecht, a Brazilian con-struction firm (see Americas section). The scandal is the latest in a string of graft cases to make headlines this year, starting with Airbus’s record $4bn settlement in January over accusations of corruption for making illegal payments in various countries.Corporate bribery is hardly new. In sur-veys, between a third and a half of compa-nies typically claim to have lost business to rivals who won contracts by paying kick-backs. But such perceptions-based re-search has obvious limitations. A new study takes a more rigorous approach, and draws some striking conclusions.Raghavendra Rau of Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge, Yan-Leung Cheung of the Education University of Hong Kong and Aris Stouraitis of Hong Kong Baptist University examined nearly 200 prominent bribery cases in 60 coun-tries between 1975 and 2015. For the firms doing the bribing, they found, the short-term gains were juicy: every dollar of bribe translated into a $6-9 increase in excess re-turns, relative to the overall stockmarket. That, however, does not take account of the chances of getting caught. These have risen as enforcement of America’s 43-year-old anti-bribery law, the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (fcpa ), has been stepped up and other countries have passed similar laws. The number of fcpa cases is up sharply since the financial crisis of 2007-09, according to Stanford Law School (see chart). It has dipped a bit under Presi-dent Donald Trump, who has criticised the fcpa for hobbling American firms over-seas, but remains well above historic lev-els. Total fines for fcpa violations were $14bn in 2016-19, 48 times as much as in the four years to 2007.The authors also tested 11hypotheses that emerged from past studies of bribery.They found support for some, for instance that firms pay larger bribes when they ex-pect to receive larger benefits, and that the net benefits of bribing are smaller in places with more public disclosure of politicians’sources of income.But they punctured other bits of re-ceived wisdom. Most striking, they found no link between democracy and graft. This challenges the “Tullock paradox”, which holds that firms can get away with smaller bribes in democracies because politicians and officials have less of a lock on the sys-tem than those in autocratic countries, and so cannot extract as much rent. Such find-ings will doubtless be of interest to corrup-tion investigators and unscrupulous exec-utives alike. 7Bribery pays—if you don’t get caughtBriberyA closer look at greasy palmsBrown envelopes, big chequesUnited States,Foreign Corrupt Practices ActSources:Stanford Law School;Sullivan &Cromwell*Investigations and enforcement actions †To August6543210605040302010020†10152000059095851977Enforcement actionsSanctions, $bnUtilitiesTransport Communications Basic materials Financial services Consumer goods Aerospace & defence TechnologyIndustrials Health care Oil &gas 100806040200Number of cases* by selected industry1977-2020†。

14.461Advanced Macroeconomics I(1st half)Jordi GalíMITFall2005Part1:Monetary Policy,Inflation,and the Business Cycle The lectures will provide an overview of the recent literature on dynamic optimizing models with nominal rigidities and their implications for the design of monetary policy. Lecture notes will be handed out during the course.A list of topics to be be covered and reading list with some of the key articles is provided below.Motivation and EvidenceBeyond RBC Theory.Long Run Evidence.Reduced Form Evidence.The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks.Walsh,Carl E.(2003):Monetary Theory and Policy,Second Edition,MIT Press,chapter1.McCandless,George T.,Warren Weber(1995):“Some Monetary Facts,”Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis,Quartely ReviewBarro,Robert(1998):The Determinants of Economic Growth,MIT Press,chapter3. (NBER WP#5698)Bruno,Michael,and William Easterly(1998):“Inflation Crises and Long Run Growth,”Journal of Monetary Economics,vol.41,no.1,3-26Cooley,Thomas F.and Gary D.Hansen(1995):“Money and the Business Cycle,”in in T. Cooley ed.:Frontiers of Business Cycle Research(Princeton University Press),section7.2.Stock,James,and Mark W.Watson(2000):“Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series,”in J.B.Taylor and M.Woodford eds.,Handbook of Macroeconomics,volume1A.(also NBER WP6528))Romer,Christina,and David Romer(1989):“Does Monetary Policy Matter?A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz,”NBER Macroeconomics Annual,4,121-170.Christiano,Lawrence J.,Martin Eichenbaum,and Charles L.Evans(1998):“Monetary Policy Shocks:What Have We Learned and to What End?,”in J.B.Taylor and M.Woodford eds.,Handbook of Macroeconomics,volume1A,65-148.(also NBER WP6400).Peersman,Gert and Frank Smets(2003):“The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area:More Evidence from VAR Analysis,”in Angeloni et al.(eds.)Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area,Cambridge University Press,(also ECB WP no.91).Galí,Jordi(1992):”How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S.Data?,”Quarterly Journal of Economics709-738.Bernanke,Ben S.,and Ilian Mihov(1997):“Measuring Monetary Policy,”Quarterly Journal of Economics,vol.CXIII,no.3,869-902.Eichenbaum,Martin and Charles E.Evans(1995):“Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates,”Quarterly Journal of Economics110,no.4,975-1010.Bils,Mark and Peter J.Klenow(2004):“Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices,”Journal of Political Economy,vol112(5),947-985.Dhyne,Emmanuel et al.(2005):“Price Setting in the Euro Area:Some Stylised Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data,”mimeo.Alvarez,Luis et al.(2005):“Sticky Prices in the Euro Area:Evidence from Micro-Data,”mimeo.A Simple Framework for Monetary Policy AnalysisHouseholds.Firms.Marginal costs and markups.Elements of equilibrium.Money demand. Capital accumulation.Walsh,Carl E.(2003):Monetary Theory and Policy,Second Edition,MIT Press,chapter2 (also related:chapter3)Woodford,Michael(2003):Interest and Prices:Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy,Princeton University Press,chapter1.Flexible PricesThe classical monetary model.Optimal price setting.Neutrality.Monetary policy rules and price level determination.Sources of non-neutrality.Optimal monetary policy. Hyperinflations.Walsh,Carl E.(2003):Monetary Theory and Policy,Second Edition,MIT Press,chapter2.Woodford,Michael(2003):Interest and Prices:Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy,Princeton University Press,chapter2.Cooley,Thomas F.and Gary D.Hansen(1995):“Money and the Business Cycle,”in in T. Cooley ed.:Frontiers of Business Cycle Research(Princeton University Press).Cooley,Thomas F.and Gary D.Hansen(1989):“Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model,”American Economic Review79,733-748.King,Robert G.,and Mark Watson(1996):“Money,Prices,Interest Rates,and the Business Cycle,”Review of Economics and Statistics,vol78,no1,35-53.Chari,V.V.,and Patrick J.Kehoe(1999):“Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy,”in in J.B. Taylor and M.Woodford eds.,Handbook of Macroeconomics,volume1C,1671-1745.Correia,Isabel,and Pedro Teles(1999):“The Optimal Inflation Tax,”Review of Economic Dynamics,vol.2,no.2325-346.A Baseline Sticky Price ModelThe Calvo model.The new Keynesian Phillips curve.The output gap and the natural rate of interest.The effects of monetary policy shocks.Evidence on inflation dynamics.Alternative time-dependent models:convex price adjustment costs,the Taylor model,the truncated Calvo model.State-dependent models.Walsh,Carl E.(2003):Monetary Theory and Policy,Second Edition,MIT Press,chapter5.Woodford,Michael(2003):Interest and Prices:Foundations of a Theory of MonetaryPolicy,Princeton University Press,chapter4.Calvo,Guillermo(1983):“Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework,”Journal of Monetary Economics,12,383-398.Yun,Tack(1996):“Nominal Price Rigidity,Money Supply Endogeneity,and Business Cycles,”Journal of Monetary Economics37,345-370.King,Robert G.,and Alexander L.Wolman(1996):“Inflation Targeting in a St.Louis Model of the21st Century,”Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review,vol.78,no.3.(NBER WP#5507).Fuhrer,Jeffrey C.and George R.Moore(1995):“Inflation Persistence”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.110,February,pp127-159.Galí,Jordi and Mark Gertler(1998):“Inflation Dynamics:A Structural Econometric Analysis,”Journal of Monetary Economics,vol44,no.2,195-222.Sbordone,Argia(2002):“Prices and Unit Labor Costs:A New Test of Price Stickiness,”Journal of Monetary Economics,vol.49,no.2,265-292.Galí,Jordi,Mark Gertler,David López-Salido(2001):“European Inflation Dynamics,”European Economic Review vol.45,no.7,1237-1270.Galí,Jordi,Mark Gertler,David López-Salido(2005):“Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,”Journal of Monetary Economics,forthcoming.Eichenbaum,Martin and Jonas D.M.Fisher(2004):“Evaluating the Calvo Model of Sticky Prices,”NBER WP10617.Mankiw,N.Gregory and Ricardo Reis(2002):“Sticky Information vs.Sticky Prices:A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,”Quartely Journal of Economics,vol. CXVII,issue4,1295-1328.Rotemberg,Julio(1996):“Prices,Output,and Hours:An Empirical Analysis Based on a Sticky Price Model,”Journal of Monetary Economics37,505-533.Chari,V.V.,Patrick J.Kehoe,Ellen R.McGrattan(2000):“Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle:Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?,”Econometrica, vol.68,no.5,1151-1180.Wolman,Alexander(1999):“Sticky Prices,Marginal Cost,and the Behavior of Inflation,”Economic Quarterly,vol85,no.4,29-48.Dotsey,Michael,Robert G.King,and Alexander L.Wolman(1999):“State Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output,”Quarterly Journal of Economics,vol.CXIV,issue2,655-690.Dotsey,Michael,and Robert G.King(2005):“Implications of State Dependent Pricing for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models,”Journal of Monetary Economics,52,213-242.Golosov,Mikhail,Robert E.Lucas(2005):“Menu Costs and Phillips Curves”mimeo.Gertler,Mark and John Leahy(2005):“A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation,”mimeo.Monetary Policy Design in the Baseline ModelA benchmark case.Optimal monetary policy and its implementation.The Taylor Principle. Simple Monetary Policy Rules.Second order approximation to welfare losses.Evidence on Monetary Policy rules.The effects of technology shocks:theory and evidence.Galí,Jordi(2003):“New Perspectives on Monetary Policy,Inflation,and the BusinessCycle,”in Advances in Economics and Econometrics,volume III,edited by M.Dewatripont, L.Hansen,and S.Turnovsky,Cambridge University Press(also available as NBER WP#8767).Woodford,Michael(2003):Interest and Prices:Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy,Princeton University Press,chapter6.Yun,Tack(2005):“Optimal Monetary Policy with Relative Price Distortions”American Economic Review,vol.95,no.1,89-109Blanchard,Olivier and Charles Kahn(1980),“The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations”,Econometrica,48,1305-1311Bullard,James,and Kaushik Mitra(2002):“Learning About Monetary Policy Rules,”Journal of Monetary Economics,vol.49,no.6,1105-1130.Woodford,Michael(2001):“The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy,”American Economic Review91(2):232-237(2001).Rotemberg,Julio and Michael Woodford(1999):“Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model,”in J.B.Taylor ed.,Monetary Policy Rules,University of Chicago Press.Benhabib,Jess,Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe,and Martin Uribe(2001):“The Perils of Taylor Rules,”Journal of Economic Theory96,40-69.Levin,Andrew,Volker Wieland,and John C.Williams(2003):“The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty,”American Economic Review,vol.93,no.3,622-645.Clarida,Richard,Jordi Galí,and Mark Gertler(2000):“Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability:Evidence and Some Theory,”Quarterly Journal of Economics,vol. 115,issue1,147-180.Taylor,John B.(1998):“An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules,”in J.B.Taylor ed.,Monetary Policy Rules,University of Chicago Press.Orphanides,Athanasios(2003):“The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation,”Journal of Monetary Economics50,633-663Galí,Jordi(1999):“Technology,Employment,and the Business Cycle:Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?,”American Economic Review,vol.89,no.1,249-271.Basu,Susanto,John Fernald,and Miles Kimball(2004):“Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?,”American Economic Review,forthcoming(also NBER WP#10592).Francis,Neville,and Valerie Ramey(2005):“Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?Shocks and Aggregate FLuctuations Revisited,”Journal of Monetary Economics,forthcoming.Galí,Jordi and Pau Rabanal(2004):“Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Postwar U.S.Data?,”NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004,225-288.(also as NBER WP#10636).Christiano,Lawrence,Martin Eichenbaum,and Robert Vigfusson(2003):“What happens after a Technology Shock?,”NBER WP#9819.Galí,Jordi,J.David López-Salido,and Javier Vallés(2003):“Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy:Assessing the Fed’s Performance,”Journal of Monetary Economics,vol.50, no.4.,723-743.Extensions of the Baseline Model and their Implications for Monetary PolicyCost-push shocks.Nominal wage rigidities.Monetary frictions.Inflation inertia.Real wage rigidities.Steady state distortions.Estimated medium-scale models.Giannoni,Marc P.,and Michael Woodford(2003):“Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules,”in B.Bernanke and M.Woodford,eds.The Inflation Targeting Debate,Chicago,Chicago University Press.(also NBER WP#9939).Woodford,Michael(2003):Interest and Prices:Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy,Princeton University Press,chapters6-8.Clarida,Richard,Jordi Galí,and Mark Gertler(1999):“The Science of Monetary Policy:A New Keynesian Perspective,”Journal of Economic Literature,vol.37,no.4,1661-1707.Erceg,Christopher J.,Dale W.Henderson,and Andrew T.Levin(2000):“Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts,”Journal of Monetary Economics vol.46,no.2,281-314.Huang,Kevin X.D.,and Zheng Liu.(2002):“Staggered Price-setting,staggeredwage-setting and business cycle persistence,”Journal of Monetary Economics,vo.49,405-433.Woodford,Michael(2003):“Optimal Interest Rate Smoothing,”Review of Economic Studies,vol.70,no.4,861-886.Steinsson,Jón(2003):“Optimal Monetary Policy in an Economy with Inflation Persistence,”Journal of Monetary Economics,vol.50,no.7.Blanchard,Olivier J.and Jordi Galí(2005):“Real Wage Rigidities and the Nw Keynesian Model”mimeo.Benigno,Pierpaolo,and Michael Woodford(2005):“Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: the Case of a Distorted Steady State”Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming.Khan,Aubhik,Robert G.King and Alexander L.Wolman(2003):“Optimal Monetary Policy,”Review of Economic Studies,825-860.Christiano,Lawrence J.,Martin Eichenbaum,and Charles L.Evans(2001):“Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy,”Journal of Political EconomySmets,Frank,and Raf Wouters(2003):“An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area,”Journal of the European Economic Association,vol1, no.5,1123-1175.Monetary Policy in the Open EconomyEmpirical issues.Two country models.Small Open Economy.Monetary Unions.Local Currency Pricing.Benigno,Gianluca,and Benigno,Pierpaolo(2003):“Price Stability in Open Economies,”Review of Economic Studies,vol.70,no.4,743-764.Galí,Jordi,and Tommaso Monacelli(2005):“Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy,”Review of Economic Studies,vol.72,issue3,2005,707-734.Clarida,Richard,Jordi Galí,and Mark Gertler(2002):“A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis,”Journal of Monetary Economics,vol.49,no.5, 879-904.Benigno,Pierpaolo(2004):“Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area,”Journal of International Economics,vol.63,issue2,293-320.Monetary and Fiscal Policy InteractionsFiscal policy rules and equilibrium determination.Distortionary taxes and optimal policy. Non-Ricardian economies and the effects ernment spending.Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in currency unions.Leeper,Eric(1991):“Equilibria under Active and Passive Monetary Policies,”Journal of Monetary Economic s27,129-147.Sims,Christopher A.(1994):“A Simple Model for the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy,”Economic Theory,vol.4,381-399.Woodford,Michael(1996):“Control of the Public Debt:A Requirement for Price Stability,”NBER WP#5684.Davig,Troy and Eric Leeper(2005):“Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory,”mimeo.Schmitt-Grohé,Stephanie,and Martin Uribe(2004):“Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy under Sticky Prices,”Journal of Economic Theory114,198-230Schmitt-Grohé,Stephanie,and Martin Uribe(2003):“Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules,”NBER WP#10253.Blanchard,Olivier and Roberto Perotti(2002),“An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,”Quarterly Journal of Economics,vol CXVII,issue4,1329-1368.Fatás,Antonio and Ilian Mihov(2001),“The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment:Theory and Evidence,”INSEAD,mimeo.Galí,Jordi,J.David López-Salido and Javier Vallés(2005):“Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption,”mimeo.Galí,Jordi,and Tommaso Monacelli(2005):“Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union:A New Keynesian Perspective,”miemo.。

6单元翻译1.The internationalisation of the economy is not as recent as the buzzwordglobalisation would have us believe.经济的国际化最近不像全球化这个流行词一样让人相信。

2. Liability losses can reach extreme proportions when pharmaceutical products cause dangerous side effects in patients.当药品对病人产生危险性的副作用时，责任损失会达到最大比例。

3. Insurance companies that cover such large risks need a secondary market where they can place them.覆盖如此大风险的保险公司需要一个它们能放置风险的二级市场。

4. The insurance of large and accumulation risks is a definite advantage for the sustainable development of economies.大而累积的风险的保险对可持续经济发展来说的确是一个有利条件。

5. Countries with an underdeveloped system of insurance suffer immeasurably more from major catastrophes than those where a good part of the material losses can be covered by professional risk carriers.与那些大部分物质损失可以由专业风险承担人所涵盖的国家相比，没有成熟保险体系的国家在大灾难中遭受的要多得多。

Industriesike all businesses today, the USPS must remain responsive andflexible to the changing business environ-ment, ensuring along the way that it has all the capability it needs to satisfy a growing, increasingly demanding market.The USPS is satisfied that ABB’s Robot Containerization System (RCS) will let them do just that.First, though, a lengthy list of USPS requirements had to be met. For example, the RCS had to be easily replicable as 100 installations were planned. Customer site development was required for each installation because each site has its own unique characteristics, and provision had to be made for these during the installation phase. In addition, a system standard was required for the 100 installations.This had to cover: s Softwares In-feed/recirculation conveyorss Mechanical grippers for handling all types of intermixed mail trays s Human-machine interface (HMI)s Overhead gantry-mounted robots s All equipment and hardware (barcode readers, docking stations, etc)s Peripheral guarding sAcceptance testss On-site system training/support for operators, maintenance staff, etc. sDocumentation, including manuals and videos, tailored to the exact needs of USPS personnel and processessDocumented technical dataPost-hasteBruce A. MeyerSpot welding, machine tending, material handling, picking, packing, painting, palletizing,assembly... the list of tasks being performed by ABB robots keeps on growing.Adding to this already impressive portfolio is a new Robot Containerization System (RCS)that ABB developed specifically for the United States Postal Service (USPS). The RCS has brought new levels of speed, accuracy, efficiency and productivity to the process of sorting and containerizing mail and packages. Recently, the 100th ABB RCS was installed at the USPS processing and distribution center in Columbus, Ohio.L100th robotic containerization system installed in US mail sorting centerUSPS processing and distribution center in Santa Ana, CaliforniaThe 100 systems were delivered to50 facilities and installed at the rate of two per week during the program.Sorting and handling mailThe place to go to better understand the benefits of the RCS is the Chicago Metro Surface Hub (CMSH) in Elk Grove, Illinois,which covers some 465,000 square feet (43,200 square meters). The CMSH processes incoming and outgoing mail for postal delivery centers throughout the metropolitan Chicago area. 650 people work here in three eight-hour shifts,receiving and dispatching mail through 70 loading dock doors. With nearly 100%uptime, the ABB RCS works around the clock, providing better real-time collec-tion of operating and performance data to help CMSH match staffing levels to expected volumes.According to Surjit Grewal, CMSH Maintenance Manager, the RCS that seesmost work is the one used primarily for sorting incoming mail. This system handles an average of 80,000 to 100,000mail trays per month. A unique, patented sorting system integrated in the RCS is easily able to cope with the varying input and maintain throughput at an optimum level. Designed for RCS installations with multiple locations, this dynamic sorting system allows the USPS to change sorting schemes very quickly based on incoming mail and volumes. Each of the locations may be assigned its own loading rate.The system can be preprogrammed with a simplified, base scheme of destinations.Grewal notes that the RCS’s accuracy in sorting has been perfect.The RCS sorts mail into 24 different containers, including general-purpose mail containers, eastern regional mail containers, and pallets. The robotautomatically senses the container type and adapts the handling operation to it.Another unique sorting feature of the RCS is its Off-Line Sort Scheme Capa-bility. This allows the creation, modifi-cation and file transfer of sort schemes from an office PC to one of CMSH’s several RCS installations.The RCS also allows greater flexibility as there is no need to clear the cart/pallet location in the cell when a destination in the new scheme is assigned to the same location as in the old scheme. Partially full containers can therefore be safely left in the system when a new sort scheme is selected – the RCS ensures that the mail is sent to the correct facility.These features together demonstrate the RCS’s ability to meet the USPS’s 100%sort accuracy requirement. By ensuring that mail is not misrouted to the wrong facility – something which happens in manual operations – it saves the CMSH costly re-work. Considering that 3000 to 4000 trays are typically handled per day,even a 1% mis-sort rate could result in 30 to 40 trays being misrouted each day at an average cost of approximately $40per tray. While actual data for mis-sort rates is difficult to obtain, ABB believes the figure for manual operations to be higher than the 1% mentioned – perhaps as high as 3–5%. Assuming just a 1%mis-sort rate, the estimated annual savings could be as high as $390,000.Other design featuresThe innovative double-gantry design of the RCS has been another big plus for the USPS. On each side of the RCS, an overhead, gantry-mounted robot retrieves trays from the in-feed conveyor and loadsMail tub being picked up by the RCS gantry systemIndustriesthem into containers. The two robotseach have a telescopic arm equipped with a unique mechanical gripper designed to sense and handle all types of intermixed mail trays (sleeved orunsleeved, open or topped mail tubs).The trays and tubs are handled just once to maximize efficiency, while top loading eliminates the need to move the containers into a specific position. Metal fingers on each gripper support trays from beneath for secure handling, and a containment plate on top holds mail in place on open trays. With its robotic arm, the RCS can even determine the position of the shelf in a container, automatically lower the shelf once the container is half full, and then finish loading the container. Each of these two robotic gantrysections is in turn divided into two zones.This allows one zone of the gantry to continue sorting operations while the other zone is undergoing cart exchange or maintenance. Any incoming trays destined for the zone the operator has entered continue to recirculate on alooping conveyor until the operator removes the filled container and closes the gate. This recirculation prevents trays from blocking robot operations during container exchanges, thereby minimizing downtime and maximizing throughput.“We like the fact that we can constantly work and continue to process mail even if one zone is disabled,” Grewal says.“That helps us with our run times and our throughput.”For maximum packing efficiency,containers are filled with open trays to a specific height, rather than the trays being counted. This nesting allows greater packing efficiency. When a container is completely filled, the operator requests and obtains access to that zone of the RCS. All operations in the zone come to a halt, the gate is unlocked, and the operator enters the RCS. With a footprint of just 900 square feet (83.6 squaremeters),including guarding, the compact,rectangular shape of the RCS helps to conserve floor space. Its small sizeensures there will be ample room around the sides and ends for operator access and container removal.All RCS functions are controlled via a user-friendly graphic interface. This provides users with a clear visual representation of the system, showing the locations of the containers and pallets, the number of trays and their positions, and the status of each location.Sort schemes are easily created on the interface, and operators can obtain information about the system’s overall status.Improved ergonomicsOne of the many important benefits robotic automation brings to mail sorting and containerizing is improvedergonomics. By eliminating the manual lifting of heavy mail trays and tubs,robotic systems help to reduce worker injuries and the associated costs. The RCS handles light to heavy loads with the same throughput, allowing for more predictable production times. With an RCS, productivity as measured by pieces per hour for dispatch operations is higher than with comparable manual methods. “Before, everything was done manually, so there were someproblems,” Grewal says. “Now, with the robots, we don't have as many people lifting so many heavy trays and tubs.” Through a variety of devices, every precaution has also been taken to ensure operator safety. The perimeter guarding enclosing the system provides a hard surface barrier, sliding gates and anRCS cellGantry robot picking up a half-tray from a recirculating conveyorgate securely locked. These interlocks can be deactivated whenever an operator has to enter the RCS to remove a container or carry out maintenance.Multiple buttons and safety pull-cords can be used to initiate an emergency stop, bringing all hazardous motion within the RCS to an immediate halt. Vertical light curtains further safeguard operators during container exchanges, and multiple floor-level sensing beams detect the presence of anyone inside the RCS during operation.Satisfaction guaranteed “Overall, we’re very satisfied with the RCS,” was Grewal’s answer when asked how the USPS felt about the new system.them with a flexible solution able tomeet changing market demands.Improvements it has brought include:s Increased speed:Trays/tubs arehandled faster.s Increased accuracy:No mis-sortingof trays.s Increased productivity:Efficiency ishigher than with manual methods.s Improved ergonomics:Manual liftingof heavy mail trays and tubs is elim-inated, reducing work-related injuries.s More predictable production:Heavyloads are handled with the samethroughput.s On-time dispatch:Predictable,consistent production facilitates reliabledispatch planning.s High flexibility:Fast changeoverbetween tasks makes the systemresponsive to changing requirements.s Improved product tracking:Automaticidentification increases ID accuracy forproduct routing, which reduces re-routemistakes and related costs.s Reduced product damage:AdvancedRCS software and a unique gripperdesign minimize damage to products.s Higher equipment utilization:Withuptime nearly 100%, the RCS workspractically around the clock.s Better reporting:Real-time collectionof operating and performance dataallows businesses to match staffing levelsto expected volumes.The number of moving parts in the RCShas been minimized and provencomponents and technology have beenused wherever possible. The result is aremarkably reliable system with veryhigh uptime. According to Grewal:“There were a few issues that had to beworked out just after the installation, butoverall we’ve had no major problemswith downtime. Right through theChristmas rush – when a small problemcould have been a big headache – theyworked great.”。

Unit 1~2Mercantilism 重商主义 Neomeicantilist 新重商主义者Trade surplus 贸易顺差Quota and tariff 配额和关税Government intervention 政府干预Zero-sum game 零和博弈Positive-sum game 常和博弈The theory of absolute advantage 绝对优势理论The theory of comparative advantage 比较优势理论Factor endowments 要素禀赋理论Product life cycle 产品生命周期（+theory ……理论）Economies of scale 规模经济Diminishing returns 收益递减规律Green revolution 绿色革命Voluntary restriction 自动出口限制Deposit 佣金First mover advantage 先占优势Barrier to entry 进入(市场)壁垒Porter’s diamond theory 波特的钻石理论National competitive advantage 国家竞争优势The department of commerce 商务部Letter of credit 信用证Draft /bill of exchange 汇票bill of lading B/L 提单Sight draft 即期汇票Time draft 远期汇票Banker ‘s acceptance 银行承兑（+bill …汇票）Trade acceptance 商业承兑汇票Countertrade 对等贸易Barter 易货贸易Switch trading 转手贸易Offset 抵消Counter purchase 互购贸易Compensation trade 补偿贸易Mercantilism suggests that it is in a country’s best interest to maintain a trade surplus -- to export more than it imports（重商主义就是保持贸易顺差以实现一国的最大利益---出口超过进口）Mercantilism advocates government intervention(介入) to achieve a surplus in the balance of trade （重商主义主张政府介入以便实现对外贸易顺差）It views trade as a zero-sum game - one in which a gain by one country results in a loss by another （将贸易看成零和博弈，一个国家收益一个国家受损）Absolute Advantage 绝对优势Adam Smith argued that a country has an absolute advantage in the production of a product when it is more efficient than any other country in producing it亚当斯密认为一个国家生产一种商品比其他任何国家效率都高时存在绝对优势According to Smith, countries should specialize in the production of goods for which they have an absolute advantage and then trade these goods for the goods produced by other countries 按照亚当斯密的说法，各国应该专门生产具有绝对优势的商品，然后用他们交换其他国家生产的商品The Benefit（好处） of Absolute Advantage and Free TradeThe Principle for International Division of Labor–Absolute Advantage 国际分工的原则---绝对优势The Consequence（结果） of Division of Labor and Free Trade 分工的结果和自由贸易1. To Production: the Flow of the Factor of Production 生产要素的流动； the Efficiency of Factor Distribution 要素分配效率；the Quantity of Production 产品质量。

Political gridlock 政治僵局growth prospects 增长前景,预期university lecturer 大学讲师go the way of 步..后尘走...路turned upside down 完全颠覆This depiction of the future 这种描绘的未来The belief that America is losing its economic edge is pervasive人们普遍认为美国正在失去其经济优势pessimistic about 悲观think-tanks 智囊团financial sector 财政部金融业The recession may gradually be receding, the worry goes, but long-ignored impediments to growth will hobble the recovery and prevent future generations from achieving the American dream.经济衰退也许已经开始减轻，但长期被忽略的经济增长障碍将会让复苏之路充满坎坷，使未来几代人无法实现美国梦a slot it is destined to lose to China sooner or later.这一位置被中国取代只是个时间问题。

infrastructure 基础设施Chamber of Commerce 商会institutions体制constitution 宪法macroeconomic environment 宏观经济Much of this stems from the transitory effects of the recession这些中很大一部分源于衰退的短期影响On the current trajectory 就目前的发展趋势来看On the current trajectory, the soaring costs of Medicare and Medicaid, the government’s health-care schemes for the old and the poor respectively, along with Social Security, the state pension scheme, will consume all federal revenues within a generation, leaving nothing for anything else就目前的发展趋势来看，美国政府为老年人提供的医疗保险和为穷人提供的医疗补助，再加上社会保障这一政府养老金项目将会在一代人的时间里吞食掉全部政府收入，使得政府无力在其它任何项目上斥资。