国际贸易专业外文翻译 --- 国际化经营

外文文献原稿和译文原稿Introduction2010,Risks in Global MarketWhere there’s an opportunity,there’s a risk.Traders always face risks in any market,from the richest countries to the least developed economies. And as the global economic crisis changed markets,some risks for international trades might have been unveiled or worsened.The risks,which derive from the diversity and vicissitude of market structures,jurisdictions,commerce rules, cultures,languages,and even psychosociological factors,may exist in any sector and stage of the trade process,such as destination marketing,customs clearance,financial support,debts and solvencies,and adherence to WTO rules.A report by the Ministry of Commerce of China specified the risks of investing and doing business in many countries.Zhou Mi,an expert on the research panel,argued that the global market is undergoing a wave of restructuring and rebalancing because consumption in developed countries has waned and the emerging economies will accordingly wield greater influence in the world economy.The newest updates of this report will reveal more specifics, and some of them are listed here in advance.A senior manager from Ernst& Young analyzes the effect that corporate reshaping could have on customs clearance.China Export&Credit Insurance Corporation evaluates the risk factors in the financial systems and debt structures of some important markets.An expert from China’s Economic Diplomacy defines some risks created by WTO rules and offers advice on how to handle the risks.译文介绍2010年，在全球市场的风险那里是一个机会，还有一个风险。

外文原文：Foreign Market Entry ModesThe decision of how to entry a foreign market can have a significant impact on the results. Expansion into foreign markets can be achieved via the following four mechanisms.•Exporting•Licensing•Joint Venture•Direct Inve stmentExportingExporting is the marketing and direct sale of domestically-produced goods in another country. Exporting is a traditional and well-established method of reaching foreign Markets. Since exporting does not require that the goods be produced in the target country, no investment in foreign production facilities is required. Most of the costs associated with exporting take the form of marketing expenses.Exporting commonly requires coordination among four players.•Exporter•Importer•Trans port provider•GovernmentLicensingLicensing essentially permits a company in the target country to use the property of the licensor. Such property usually is intangible, such as trademarks, patents, and production techniques. The license pays a fee in exchange for the rights to use the intangible property and possibly for technical assistance.Because little investment on the part of the licensor is required, licensing has the potential to provide a very large ROL. However, because the licensee produces and markets the product, potential returns from manufacturing and marketing activities may be lost.Joint VentureThere are five common objectives in a joint: market entry, risk/reward sharing, technology sharing and product development, and conforming to government regulations. Other benefits include political connections and distribution channel access that may depend on relationships.Such alliances often are favorable when:•the par tners’ strategic goals converge while their competitive goals diverg e;•the partners’ size, market power, and resources are small compared to the industry leaders ；• partners ‘ are able to learn from one another while limiting access to their own proprietary skills.Foreign direct investmentForeign direct investment（FDI）is the direct ownership of facilities in the target country. It involves the transfer of resources including capital, technology, and personnel. Direct foreign investment may be made through the acquisition of an existing entity or the establishment of a new enterprise.Direct ownership provides a high degree of control in the operations and the ability to better know the consumers and competitive environment. However, it requires a high level of resources and ahigh degree of commitment.The case of Euro DisneyDifferent modes of entry may be more appropriate under different circumstances，and the mode of entry is an important factor in the success of the project. Walt Disney Co. faced the challenge of building a theme park in Europe. Disney’s mode of entry in Japan had been licensing. However, the firm chose direct investment in its European theme park, owning 49% with the remaining 51% held publicly.Besides the mode of entry, another important element in Disney’s decision was exactly where in Europe to locate. There are many factors in the site selection decision, and a company carefully must define and evaluate the criteria for choosing a location. The problems with the euro Disney project illustrate that even if a company has been successful in the past, as Disney had been with its California, Florida, and Tokyo theme parks, futures success is not guaranteed, especially when moving into a different country and culture. The appropriate adjustments for national differences always should be made.（From：Strategic Management）中文译文：国外市场进入模式如何进入外国市场有着重大的影响。

国际贸易公司经营范文英文版International Trade Company Business Scope1. Introduction to the international trade companyThe international trade company is a company engaged in import and export trade between countries. With the development of globalization, international trade plays an increasingly important role in the economic development of countries. The international trade company acts as a bridge between producers and consumers in different countries, facilitating the exchange of goods, services, and capital between countries.2. Business scope of the international trade company2.1 Import and export of goodsThe import and export of goods is the core business of the international trade company. The company imports various goods from overseas suppliers and sells them to domestic customers. At the same time, the company exports domestic goods to overseas markets. The company needs to have a deep understanding of the global market, including the demand for goods, the competitive landscape, and the regulations and policies of different countries. The company also needs to establish a strong supplier and customer network to ensure the smooth flow of goods.2.2 International logisticsInternational logistics is another important business of the international trade company. It involves the transportation, storage, and distribution of goods across different countries. The companyneeds to coordinate with various parties, such as shipping companies, customs agents, and warehouses, to ensure the timely and safe delivery of goods. The company also needs to provide value-added logistics services, such as packaging, labeling, and inventory management, to meet the specific needs of customers.2.3 Trade financeTrade finance is essential for international trade. The international trade company needs to provide financing solutions to facilitate trade transactions. This includes providing letters of credit, trade financing, and currency exchange services. The company should have a strong understanding of international banking regulations and be able to manage the risks associated with trade finance, such as credit risk and foreign exchange risk.2.4 International market researchTo succeed in international trade, the international trade company needs to conduct thorough market research. This includes analyzing market trends, identifying potential customers and competitors, and understanding the cultural and regulatory differences of different countries. The company needs to provide market intelligence to its suppliers and customers, helping them make informed business decisions.2.5 Trade consultingThe international trade company should provide trade consulting services to its customers. This includes helping customers understand the import and export regulations and procedures of different countries, assisting in the preparation of trade documentation, and providing advice on trade-related issues. Thecompany should have a strong knowledge base and experience in international trade to provide reliable and accurate consulting services.2.6 E-commerce platformsWith the rapid development of e-commerce, the international trade company should establish e-commerce platforms to facilitate online trade. The company can build its own e-commerce website or leverage existing platforms, such as Alibaba and Amazon, to reach a wider customer base. The company needs to integrate online and offline channels to provide a seamless and convenient shopping experience to customers.3. Challenges and opportunities in the international trade industryThe international trade industry faces various challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the industry is affected by various factors, such as changing global economic conditions, trade policies, and geopolitical events. The company needs to closely monitor these factors and adjust its business strategies accordingly. On the other hand, the industry offers opportunities for growth, such as emerging markets, new technologies, and changing consumer preferences. The company should seize these opportunities and innovate its products and services to stay competitive in the market.4. ConclusionThe international trade company plays a crucial role in facilitating the exchange of goods, services, and capital between countries. Itsbusiness scope includes the import and export of goods, international logistics, trade finance, market research, trade consulting, and e-commerce platforms. The company needs to navigate through challenges and seize opportunities in the international trade industry to achieve sustainable growth and success.。

World Trade and International TradeIn today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations are self-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of world trade and economic activity. As a result of this trade and activity, international finance and banking have evolved.For example, the United States is a major consumer of coffee, yet it does not have the climate to grow any or its own. Consequently, the United States must import coffee from countries (such as Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala) that grow coffee efficiently. On the other hand, the United States has large industrial plants capable of producing a variety of goods, such as chemicals and airplanes, which can be sold to nations that need them. If nations traded item for item, such as one automobile for 10,000 bags of coffee, foreign trade would be extremely cumbersome and restrictive. So instead of batter, which is trade of goods without an exchange of money, the United State receives money in payment for what it sells. It pays for Brazilian coffee with dollars, which Brazil can then use to buy wool from Australia, which in turn can buy textiles Great Britain, which can then buy tobacco from the United State.Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above is that no nation has all of the commodities that it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa and petroleum is recovered in the Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them.Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough of a particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar.Third, one nation can sell some items at a lower cost than other countries. Japan has been able to export large quantities of radios and television sets because it can produce them more efficiently than other countries. It is cheaper for the United States to buy these from Japan than to produce them domestically. According to economic theory, Japan should produce and export those items from which it derives a comparative advantage. It should also buy and import what it needs from those countries that have a comparative advantage in the desired items.Finally, foreign trade takes place because of innovation or style. Even though the United States produces more automobiles than any other country, it still imports large numbers of autos from Germany, Japan and Sweden, primarily because there is a market for them in the United States.For most nations, exports and imports are the most important international activity. When nations export more than they import, they are said to have a favorable balance of trade. When they import more than they export, an unfavorable balance of trade exists. Nations try to maintain a favorable balance of trade, which assures them of the means to buy necessary imports.International trade is the exchange ofgoods and services produced in one country for goods and services produced in another country. There are several reasons for it.The distribution lf natural resources around the world is somewhat haphazard: some nations possess natural deposits in excess of their own requirements while other nations have none. For example, Britain has large reserves of coal but lacks many minerals such as nickel, copper, aluminum etc, whereas the Arab states have vast oil deposits but little else. In the cultivation of natural products climates whereas others, such as citrus fruits, require a Mediterranean climate. Moreover, some nations are unable to produce sufficient of a particular product to satisfy a large home demand, for example, Britain and wheat. These are the reasons why international trade first began.With the development of manufacturing and technology, there arose another incentive for nations to exchange their products. It was found that it made economic sense for a nation to specialize in certain activities and produce those goods for which it had the most advantages, and to exchange those goods for the products of other nations which and advantages in different fields. This trade is based on the principle of comparative advantage.The theory of comparative advantage, also called the comparative cost theory, was developed by David Ricardo, and other economists in the nineteenth century. It points out that trade between countries can be profitable for all, even if one of the countries can produce every commodity more cheaply. As long as there are minor, relative differences in the efficiency of producing a commodity even the poof country can have a comparative advantage in producing it. The paradox is best illustrated by this traditional example: the best lawyer in town is also the best typist in town. Since this lawyer cannot afford to give up precious time from legal and typing matters. But the typist’s comparative disadvantage is least in typing. Therefore, the typist has a relative comparative advantage in typing.This principle is the basis of specialization into trades and occupations. At the same time, complete specialization may never occur even when it is economically advantageous. For strategic or domestic reasons, a country may continue to produce goods for which it does not have an advantage. The benefits lf specialization may also be affecting by transport costs: goods and raw materials have to be transported around the world and the cost of the transport narrows the limits between which it will prove profitable to trade. Another impediment to the free flow of goods between nations is the possible introduction of artificial barriers to trade, such as tariffs or quotas.In addition to visible trade, which involves the import and export lf goods and merchandise, there is also invisible trade, which involves the exchange of services between nations.Nations such as Greece and Norway have large marine fleets and provide transportation service. This is a kind of invisible trade. When an exporter arranges shipment, he rents space in the cargo compartment or a ship.The prudent e xporter purchases insurance for his cargo’s voyage. While at sea, a cargo is vulnerable to many dangers. Thus, insurance is another service in which some nations specialize. Great Britain, becauseof the development of Lloyd’s of London, is a leading expor ter of this service, earning fees for insuring other nations’ foreign trade.Some nations possess little in the way of exporter commodities or manufactured goods, but they have a mild and sunny climate. During the winter, the Bahamas attract large numbers of countries, who spend money for hotel accommodations, meals, taxis, and so on. Tourism, therefore, is another form of invisible trade.Invisible trade can be as important to some nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations earn money to buy necessities.International trade today little resembles European commerce as it existed between the 16th century and the 19th century. Trade in earlier times was conducted largely between a mother country and its colonies. It was conducted according to strict mercantilist principles. The colonies were supposed to supply the mother country with raw materials, and they were expected to buy all finished goods from the mother country. Other forms of trade were forbidden to the colonies, but many of them evaded these restrictions.A result of the Industrial Revolution, which began in England in the 18th century, was the transformation of trade from a colonial exchange into a many sided international institution. Cottage industries gave way to mass production in factories. Railroads and steamships lowered the cost of transportation at the same time that new markets were being sought for the expanding output of goods.The Industrial Revolution also brought an end to mercantilist policies. The laissez-faire attitudes that emerged in their stead permitted businessmen to manufacture what they pleased and to trade freely with other nations. Trade was also stimulated by the growth of banking facilities, insurance companies, and improved commercial shipping and communications.The repeal of the Corn Laws by Great Britain in 1846 ended Britain’s longstanding policy of protectionism. During the 19th century, many European nations made commercial agreements with each other easing their tariff rates. Lower tariffs and the growth of population and industry caused trade to soar in the 19th century.In the 20th century two world wars and a major depression caused severe disturbances in international trade. Nations, sensing a threat to their domestic economies, sought to protect themselves from further disturbances by erecting various barriers to trade.The situation became even worse after Great Britain abandoned the gold standard. The nations that were closely related to Britain, including most of the members of the Commonwealth of gold standard. As the means of making international payments broke down and trade restrictions increased, some countries had to resort to barter to obtain foreign goods.International trade was in such severe straits during the depression that a World Economic Conference was held in 1933. This conference, however, was unable to halt a rash of currency devaluations, tariff increases, and quota arrangements.In 1934, U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull persuaded Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act. This law authorized the President to negotiate tariff cuts with other nations. The Reciprocal Trade Act provided for protection of U.S. industries in the event foreign imports increased to such a degree that U.S. businesses were injured. This protection included peril point and escape clauses under which tariff cuts could by refused of rescinded if a U.S. industry suffered economic hardship. Despite the protectionist clauses in the act, U.S. tariffs were substantially reduced.Shortly before the end of World War Ⅱ, members of the United Nations met at Bratton Woods, N.H. to discuss ways of reducing the financial barriers to international trade. The International Monetary Fund was established as a result of the conference. The fund was designed to encourage the growth of international trade by stabilizing currencies and their rate of foreign exchange.In the early postwar period, more than 20 nations met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate tariff reductions. When any two nations reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on a product, the benefits were extended to all participating nations. This was an application of the so-called most favored nation clause.The Geneva tariff agreements were written into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT also established standards for the conduct of international trade. Fox example, the agreement prohibits nations from placing quotas of limits on imports, except under very special circumstances.After World War Ⅱ a number of free trade areas were formed to solve trade problems on a regional basis. Tariffs on goods moving within these areas were to be abolished. Some of the groups also erected a single tariff on the goods of outsiders coming into their common area. Such groups are called customs unions. The goal of all trade blocs was to merge small political units into large geographic entities in which goods could be freely manufactured and sold. A large market area greatly stimulates economic growth and prosperity. These trade blocs are: Benelux, The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Economic Community (EEC or Common Market), the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECOM), the Latin American Free Trade Association (LAFTA), the Central American Common Market (CACM), the Caribbean Free Trade Area (CARIFTA), the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM).世界贸易和国际贸易在当今复杂的经济世界个人和国家都不是自给自足。

国际贸易双语教程英文版IntroductionInternational trade is an essential part of the global economy. It involves the exchange of goods and services between countries. In this bilingual tutorial, we will provide an overview of international trade and explore its various aspects. This tutorial aims to help readers gain a thorough understanding of international trade concepts and terminology in English.1. Understanding International TradeInternational trade refers to the exchange of goods and services across international borders. It allows countries to specialize in producing goods and services that they can produce efficiently, ensuring maximum productivity and resource utilization. This leads to increased economic growth and welfare for participating nations.2. Benefits of International TradeInternational trade offers several advantages to participating countries. These benefits include:•Improved Efficiency: Countries can focus on producing goods and services that they can produce efficiently, increasing overall productivity.•Access to a Wider Range of Goods: Countries can import goods not produced domestically, allowing consumers access to a broader selection of products.•Expanding Markets: With international trade, businesses can reach new markets abroad, enabling them to grow and expand.•Economic Growth: International trade stimulates economic growth by promoting investment, job creation, and innovation.•Lower Costs: Countries can import goods at a lower cost than producing them domestically, leading to cost savings for consumers andbusinesses.3. Trade BarriersDespite the benefits of international trade, various barriers can hinder smooth trade operations. These barriers include:•Tariffs: Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods, increasing their prices and reducing demand.•Quotas: Quotas limit the quantity of goods that can be imported, restricting access to foreign markets.•Regulatory Barriers: These include regulations, standards, and certifications that goods must meet to enter a country, creating additional costs and hurdles for exporters.•Currency Barriers: Fluctuations in exchange rates can affect the competitiveness of goods in international markets.•Trade Restrictions: Embargoes, trade sanctions, and trade wars can further hinder international trade.4. International Trade AgreementsTo promote and regulate international trade, countries often engage in the negotiation and formation of trade agreements. These agreements aim to reduce trade barriers and create a more favorable trade environment. Some prominent international trade agreements include:•World Trade Organization (WTO): The WTO is a global organization that promotes free trade and resolves trade disputes amongmember countries.•Free Trade Agreements (FTAs): FTAs are agreements between countries that eliminate or reduce trade barriers among participating nations.•Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs): RTAs are trade agreements between countries within a specific geographic region.•Bilateral Agreements: Bilateral agreements are trade agreements between two countries, focusing on addressing trade barriers and promoting trade.•Multilateral Agreements: Multilateral agreements involve multiple countries negotiating and establishing trade rules and regulations.5. Trade DocumentationInternational trade involves significant documentation to ensure smooth and legal transactions between parties. Some essential trade documents include: •Commercial Invoice: An invoice that provides detailed information about the goods being sold, including quantity, price, and delivery terms.•Bill of Lading: It is a document issued by a carrier that acknowledges the receipt of goods for shipment.•Packing List: A detailed list of the contents and quantities of a shipment.•Certificate of Origin: It certifies the origin of the goods and is needed to claim preferential treatment under trade agreements.•Insurance Certificate: A document that confirms that goods are insured against loss or damage during transportation.•Customs Declaration: A document that provides information about the goods being imported or exported and helps calculate applicable customs duties and taxes.ConclusionInternational trade plays a crucial role in the global economy, enabling countries to benefit from specialization, economic growth, and improved welfare. This bilingual tutorial aimed to provide an overview of international trade in English, covering its various aspects from understanding the basics to trade barriers, agreements, and documentation. By understanding these concepts, readers can engage in international trade activities more effectively and confidently.。

附录附录1[31]The establishment of the European Union Barriers Tire exports difficult ，【J】Operation Trend & Market Prospect of Chinese Tire Industry Yue Chunchen and Zhang Xinhua, Double Coin Group Co., LtdOn China's tire industry, recalled two years ago, the United States of America tires, are still stuck in the throat. Because it makes the Chinese tire enterprises almost lost all the United States market, dozens of tire enterprises closed down, more than 30 tire companies to cut or stop production. Also because of this, the enterprise industrial raw materials China synthetic rubber, carbon black and other operating rate declined sharply, nearly 100000 unemployed workers. However, the "political" trade barriers brought about by the dark clouds that have not yet dispersed, the head of China's tire industry has come from the EU's "technical" trade the clouds, and at the end of 2012 down "to the storm". Tire labeling regulations promulgated a new commission will be enforced in November 1, 2012. The regulations, in the car tires, light truck tires, European sales of truck tires and bus tires must label, marking tyre rolling noise and fuel efficiency, slippery grip level, goal is to 2020 European energy consumption was reduced by 20%. The regulations are the EU REACH regulations limit the content of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the tire use again after the strict limits.Tire labeling regulations according to the fuel consumption and the slippery road grip, the tire is divided into A, G7 grade, A represents the highest performance, G represents the poor performance. At the same time, the noise emission of tyres are classified. "Calculate time, 2012 July, production of our country tire if exports to the EU, must meet specific requirements for labeling regulations, this is a very big challenge to the Chinese tire enterprises." Zhuo and information analysts Wang Yulian analysis said rubber division. At present, the EU has become the second largest export market of tire enterprises in our country, but our country to meet the requirements of the EU labeling regulations tires accounted for only 30% of total exports, and most of them in the D to the G grade. In the A - C this several grades of tire less, and most of them are wholly foreign-owned enterprise products, rather than domestic brands. "This means that the laws, the door tire export enterprises in China the EU will close to a great extent." The important base of domestic tyre production in Jiangsu as an example. In 2010, Jiangsu exports to the EU's tires accounted for 26.9% of total exports, ranking the first domestic. But, at present can not reach the EU tire industry tire rolling resistance of summer demand accounted for about 38%, winter tire is about 50%. Energy-saving tire the province before the three tire company newest can reach B to C range, and in the D level and above thetire is difficult to sale in European market. "This led by the EU, some countries will launch their own labeling regulations, facing China's tire business trade barriers will be more and more. Economic weakness in external demand by the impact of factors such as plus, if the tyre production enterprises in our country is not paid enough attention to, continue to maintain the current production situation and development, the international market will shrink further." Wang Yulian said. It is understood, South Korea 28% tire production sold to EU area, so the prospective launched a voluntary tire labeling system. The system also will become mandatory from 2012 November. In the tag, the tire rolling resistance and wet skid on grip is divided into 1 - 5 five grades. Japan in 2010 to voluntarily tire labeling system, main sign of rolling resistance of tire and a wet road grip level. The United States as early as 6 years ago by including the tire labeling regulations, regulations. At present the industry groups and regulators are the regulations for the last modification, and most likely according to the tire fuel efficiency, traction performance and tire tire classification surface wear. Latin America, Brazil is also brewing formulation of tire labeling regulations similar. In our country, at present our country tire exports has changed a lot. 1 - October 2010, China's tire exports year-on-year increase of up to 20%~30%, but in 2011 year-on-year growth of only 6.4%. The EU tire labeling regulations for China tire enterprises once again sounded the alarm when the tire safety and environmental requirements increasing has become a global trend, China tire enterprises really need careful thinking, accelerate the development of ideas and development strategy adjustment. New challenges "glue enterprises EU tire labeling regulations are issued under the demands of environmental protection and energy saving, the manufacturing process of the tire especially put forward high requirements for production of high performance rubber. And this is many domestic tyre production enterprise weakness." Longzhong petrochemical business network rubber Department analyst Tang Xiaonan said. She believes that, to meet regulatory requirements, China tire enterprises must increase the solution-polymerized styrene-butadiene rubber, rare earth neodymium using high-quality rubber butadiene rubber. The two products are key components of the production of green tire.Understand according to the reporter, at present our country there are many private glue enterprises are trying to SSBR and neodymium rare earth polybutadiene rubber production. Most of them are the introduction of foreign technology. Or is it because we could not grasp the core technology, or because of the lack of high-end technology to the ability to control in the production process, the product quality is much lower than the same brand products. The more difficulties are under pressure to find a way out of China's tire exports to foreign markets are facing, and production enterprises in China with a rubber development in the high-end products and more difficult. The EU tire labeling regulations after the official implementation, how these two types of interconnected enterprises to keep up with the trend of the world as soon as possible? Wang Yulian think, first of all, tire production enterprise production enterprises upstream and downstream of the glue to more exchanges, strengthen cooperation for tightness. Especially in the production of enterprises can not onlyproduce glue quietly, but also with the downstream tire manufacturing enterprises under the new market demand new trend to research and development and production of new products. "At present, too single domestic synthetic rubber enterprises produced products, in particular in the market, want to learn as soon as possible before the new regulations will cooperate with the downstream tire production enterprises prepared to deal with, not to change happens to." Wang Yulian said. Secondly, whether manufacturers tire manufacturing enterprises or glue, the need to speed up the development of emerging markets abroad, especially in ASEAN, India and China signed a trade agreement since countries and North Africa and Latin America has potential development capacity of the country. Through the implementation of "diversification" strategy, reduce the export market is too concentrated risk. In addition, the domestic market space in China is still relatively large, regardless of tire manufacturing enterprises or glue production enterprises to tap the domestic market demand, to further expand domestic demand. With the development of the world tire industry, safety, environmental protection, green tire has become a new round of development of the world tire industry trends. Tang Xiaonan thinks, no matter the tire manufacturing enterprises, manufacturing enterprises or glue, new regulations should attach great importance to and conscientiously study other countries about tires, positive measures in the international market, further improve the quality control system and related products test platform, and the improvement of technology in production process, and actively improve the performance product environmental protection. Progress in the implementation of the formulation of national standards departments should also accelerate the follow EU tire labeling regulations, REACH regulation, the establishment and implementation of the new norms and international regulations in tire technology, improve our tire safety and international competitiveness.附录2 外文资料的中文翻译对我国轮胎行业的人而言，回忆起两年前的美国轮胎特保案，至今都如鲠在喉。

句子翻译：U1：1．通过国际贸易，可以使消费者和贸易国获取本国没有的商品和劳务。

（get access to/be exposed to）Tradeing globally gives consumers and countries the opportunity to be exposed to goods and services not available in their own countries.2．通过国际贸易，富裕国家可以更高效地使用其劳动力、技术或资本等资源。

（allow/enable）International trade allows wealthy countries to use their resources-whether labor, technology, or capital-more efficiently.3．与当地企业不同，跨国企业都是在全球范围内从事经营活动。

（as opposed to）Multinational firms, as opposed to local ones,undertake their business operations on a global basis.4．今年来，中国的对外贸易呈现高速、稳定的增长。

（register）For recent years, China has registered fast and sustained growth in foreign trade volumes.5．在全球化的市场条件下，企业面临着与国内外企业的记列的竞争。

（given）Give a globalized world market, firms find themselves in fierce competion with domestic and foreign players.U2：1．进口政策的目的在于获得发展中国家经济所需要的具有现代技术的资本货物。

国际化经营 Richard. E. Caves 工商企业日趋国际化，但他们中大多数不是出于战略上的选择，而是经历了一个缓慢的“循序渐进”的进程。

有些公司开始被吸引到国际市场上来，是因为收到了找上门来的定单，在发觉新的机遇以后，通过一系列步骤走向国外成立生产广家。

有些公司主动进行国际经营是为了对付寡头卖主垄断的要挟。

还有些公司那么是碰上了特殊机缘，通过在国外经营来开发资源供给，取得外国技术或提高生产效率。

许多公司在成为全世界性企业的某一时期，都被生动地刻画成由一种专门关系网把不同国家各类各样的公司联系在一路的投资组合。

这些初期的经营方法，很难说是完整的全世界战略的一部份。

可是由于国际范围的竞争、国家操纵方法和公司日渐意识到增效利益而产生压力时，愈来愈多的公司在制定全世界战略，采纳全世界计划程序。

全世界战略是表示企业战略的一项打算，考虑到地理来源和地理机缘及限制，从其有限资源的地理散布中，最大限度地扩大选择的目标。

全世界战略，除包括公司如何进入新的市场、要拥有些什么和如何进行全世界运作外，还包括制定计划、选择机会和确信公司的经营地址和资源。

合理地制定全世界战略，需要认真评估全世界各类可选择的方案和每一个方案涉及的风险。

制订全世界战略，决策者绝不要对任何国家充满盲目性，必需先考虑到世界市场及世界资源的散布，再考虑单独某一国家的市场和资源。

全世界战略旨在于在多国的基础上取得最大的效益，而不是把国际经营活动看成不同国家的业务组合。

需要有一个全世界战略的大体缘故，是多数产品和生产要素市场超越了国家的界限，但最终决定经营的竞争，并非局限在个别的地址和国家市场。

因此，为了维持具有竞争性，或变成具有竞争性，大多数公司的战略范围必需包括国内外市场的要挟和机缘。

若是国内竞争者的视野拓宽，规模扩大，而这家公司仍旧小规模经营，就会发觉自己不能在研究或产品开发方面与他人不相上下。

即便国内竞争没有迅速扩展到其他市场，外国公司也会采取气势逼人的战略。

世界贸易和国际贸易外文文献及中文翻译World Trade and International TradeIn today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations areself-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of world trade and economic activity. As a result of this trade and activity, internationalfinance and banking have evolved.For example, the United States is a major consumer of coffee, yet it does not have the climate to grow any or its own. Consequently, the United States must import coffee from countries (such as Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala)that grow coffee efficiently. On the other hand, the United States has large industrial plants capable of producing a variety of goods, such as chemicals and airplanes, which can be sold to nations that need them. If nations traded item for item, such as one automobile for 10,000 bags of coffee, foreign trade would be extremely cumbersome and restrictive. So instead of batter, which is trade of goods without an exchange of money, the United State receives moneyin payment for what it sells. It pays for Brazilian coffee with dollars, which Brazil can then use to buy wool from Australia, which in turn can buy textiles Great Britain, which can then buy tobacco from the United State.Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above is that no nation has all of the commodities that it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa and petroleum is recovered in the Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them.Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough ofa particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar.Third, one nation can sell some items at a lower cost than other countries. Japan has been able to export large quantities of radios and television sets because it can produce them more efficiently than other countries. It is cheaper for the United States to buy these from Japan than to produce themdomestically. According to economic theory, Japan should produce and export those items from which it derives a comparative advantage. It should also buy and import what it needs from those countries that have a comparative advantage in the desired items.Finally, foreign trade takes place because of innovation or style. Even though the United States produces more automobiles than any other country, it still imports large numbers of autos from Germany, Japan and Sweden, primarily because there is a market for them in the United States.For most nations, exports and imports are the most important international activity. When nations export more than they import, they are said to have a favorable balance of trade. When they import more than they export, an unfavorable balance of trade exists. Nations try to maintain a favorable balance of trade, which assures them of the means to buy necessaryimports.International trade is the exchange ofgoods and services produced in one country for goods and services produced in another country. There are several reasons for it.The distribution lf natural resources around the world is somewhat haphazard: some nations possess natural deposits in excess of their own requirements while other nations have none. For example, Britain has large reserves of coal but lacks many minerals such as nickel, copper, aluminum etc, whereas the Arab states have vast oil deposits but little else. In the cultivation of natural products climates whereas others, such as citrus fruits, require a Mediterranean climate. Moreover, some nations are unable to produce sufficient of a particular product to satisfy a large home demand, for example, Britain and wheat. These are the reasons why international trade first began.With the development of manufacturing and technology, there arose another incentive for nations to exchange their products. It was found that it made economic sense for a nation to specialize in certain activities and produce those goods for which it had the most advantages, and to exchange those goods for the products of other nations which and advantages in different fields.This trade is based on the principle of comparative advantage.The theory of comparative advantage, also called the comparative cost theory, was developed by David Ricardo, and other economists in the nineteenth century. It points out that trade between countries can be profitable for all,even if one of the countries can produce every commodity more cheaply. As long as there are minor, relative differences in the efficiency of producing a commodity even the poof country can have a comparative advantage in producing it. The paradox is best illustrated by this traditional example: the best lawyer in town is also the best typist in town. Since this lawyer cannotafford to give up precious time from legal and typing matters. But thetypist’s comparative disadvantage is least in typing. Therefore, the typist has a relative comparative advantage in typing.This principle is the basis of specialization into trades and occupations. At the same time, complete specialization may never occur even when it is economically advantageous. For strategic or domestic reasons, a country may continue to produce goods for which it does not have an advantage. Thebenefits lf specialization may also be affecting by transport costs: goods and raw materials have to be transported around the world and the cost of the transport narrows the limits between which it will prove profitable to trade. Another impediment to the free flow of goods between nations is the possible introduction of artificial barriers to trade, such as tariffs or quotas.In addition to visible trade, which involves the import and export lf goods and merchandise, there is also invisible trade, which involves the exchange of services between nations.Nations such as Greece and Norway have large marine fleets and provide transportation service. This is a kind of invisible trade. When an exporter arranges shipment, he rents space in the cargo compartment or a ship.The prudent exporter purchases insurance for his cargo’s voyage. While at sea, a cargo is vulnerable to many dangers. Thus, insurance is another service in which some nations specialize. Great Britain, becauseof the development of Lloyd’s of L ondon, is a leading exporter of this service, earning fees for insuring other nations’ foreign trade.Some nations possess little in the way of exporter commodities or manufactured goods, but they have a mild and sunny climate. During the winter, the Bahamas attract large numbers of countries, who spend money for hotel accommodations, meals, taxis, and so on. Tourism, therefore, is another form of invisible trade.Invisible trade can be as important to some nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations earn money to buy necessities.International trade today little resembles European commerce as it existed between the 16th century and the 19th century. Trade in earlier times was conducted largely between a mother country and its colonies. It was conducted according to strict mercantilist principles. The colonies were supposed to supply the mother country with raw materials, and they were expected to buyall finished goods from the mother country. Other forms of trade were forbidden to the colonies, but many of them evaded these restrictions.A result of the Industrial Revolution, which began in England in the 18th century, was the transformation of trade from a colonial exchange into a many sided international institution. Cottage industries gave way to mass production in factories. Railroads and steamships lowered the cost of transportation at the same time that new markets were being sought for the expanding output of goods.The Industrial Revolution also brought an end to mercantilist policies. The laissez-faire attitudes that emerged in their stead permitted businessmen to manufacture what they pleased and to trade freely with other nations. Trade was also stimulated by the growth of banking facilities, insurance companies, and improved commercial shipping and communications.The repeal of the Corn Laws by Great Britain in 1846 ended Britain’s longstanding policy of protectionism. During the 19th century, many European nations made commercial agreements with each other easing their tariff rates. Lower tariffs and the growth of population and industry caused trade to soarin the 19th century.In the 20th century two world wars and a major depression caused severe disturbances in international trade. Nations, sensing a threat to their domestic economies, sought to protect themselves from further disturbances by erecting various barriers to trade.The situation became even worse after Great Britain abandoned the gold standard. The nations that were closely related to Britain, including most of the members of the Commonwealth of gold standard. As the means of makinginternational payments broke down and trade restrictions increased, some countries had to resort to barter to obtain foreign goods.International trade was in such severe straits during the depression that a World Economic Conference was held in 1933. This conference, however, was unable to halt a rash of currency devaluations, tariff increases, and quota arrangements.In 1934, U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull persuaded Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act. This law authorized the President to negotiate tariff cuts with other nations. The Reciprocal Trade Act providedfor protection of U.S. industries in the event foreign imports increased to such a degree that U.S. businesses were injured. This protection includedperil point and escape clauses under which tariff cuts could by refused of rescinded if a U.S. industry suffered economic hardship. Despite the protectionist clauses in the act, U.S. tariffs were substantially reduced.Shortly before the end of World War Ⅱ, members of the United Nations met at Bratton Woods, N.H. to discuss ways of reducing the financial barriers to international trade. The International Monetary Fund was established as a result of the conference. The fund was designed to encourage the growth of international trade by stabilizing currencies and their rate of foreign exchange.In the early postwar period, more than 20 nations met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate tariff reductions. When any two nations reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on a product, the benefits were extended to all participating nations. This was an application of the so-called most favored nation clause.The Geneva tariff agreements were written into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT also established standards for the conduct of international trade. Fox example, the agreement prohibits nations from placing quotas of limits on imports, except under very special circumstances.After World War Ⅱ a number of free trade areas were formed to solve trade problems on a regional basis. Tariffs on goods moving within these areas were to be abolished. Some of the groups also erected a single tariff on the goods of outsiders coming into their common area. Such groups are called customs unions. The goal of all trade blocs was to merge small political units intolarge geographic entities in which goods could be freely manufactured and sold.A large market area greatly stimulates economic growth and prosperity. These trade blocs are: Benelux, The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Economic Community (EEC or Common Market), the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECOM), the Latin American Free Trade Association (LAFTA), the Central American Common Market (CACM), the Caribbean Free Trade Area (CARIFTA), the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM).世界贸易和国际贸易在当今复杂的经济世界个人和国家都不是自给自足。

Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait：a case study using a V AR modelSUMMARYIn this study，a vector auto regression model (V AR) and a vector error correction model (VECM) were estimated to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on seven key macroeconomic variables for the Kuwaiti economy. Quarterly data for the period 1984 - 1998 were utilized. Theoretically and empirically speaking，VECM is superior to the V AR approach. Also，the results corresponding to the VECM model are closer to common sense.However，the estimated models indicate a high degree of interrelation between major macroeconomic variables. The empirical results highlight the causality running from the oil prices and oil revenues，to government development and current expenditure and then towards other variables. For the most part，the empirical evidence indicates that oil price shocks and hence oil revenues have a notable impact on government expenditure，both development and current. However，government development expenditure has been influenced relatively more.The results also point out the significance of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand，the variations in value of imports are mostlyaccounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. Also，the results from the VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 percent in the 10th quarter，even more than its own variations.KEY WORDS：vector auto regression (V AR); oil fluctuation; Kuwait1. INTRODUCTIONThe post-1973 effects of the oil boom on the economies of Arab oil producing countries have been diverse，though on balance，many of those governments might look back on the period 1973 –1986 as a mixed blessing. Income on the oil account certainly rose rapidly，but so did price inflation，wage rates and reliance on foreign labor. Above all，the growth of the oil sector as a contributor to national income tended to reduce the role of nonoil sectors to insignificance in most Arab states of the Gulf. This phenomenon has been termed in the literature ‘the Dutch Disease ’ . Dramatic ris es in per capita income were the fruits of rising oil revenues alone，even in the case of the larger more diversified economies of the Gulf such as Iran (Al-Abbasi，1991).There is a great deal of theoretical and empirical literature scrutinizing various aspects of the Dutch Disease economies such as Cordon and Neary (1982)，Hamilton (1983)，Neary and van Wijnbergen (1986)，Fardmanesh (1991)，Van Wijnbergen (1984)，Gelb and Associates (1988) and Taylor et al. (1986) to name a few. Recently，several empirical studies have been published on Arab oil producing countries. For instance，Taher (1987) studied the impacts of changes in the world oil prices on the different sectors of the Saudi economy. Furthermore，Al-Mutawa (1991) and Al-Mutawa and Cuddington (1994) analysed the effects of oil shocks and macroeconomic policy changes for the UAE. The results showed that，in the case of UAE，an oil-quantity boom led to higher welfare gains than an oil-price boom. Moreover，an oil-price or quantity bust always led to lower economic growth and created a welfare loss. Also，Al-Mutairi (1993) attempted to identify the sources of output fluctuations and the dynamic response of the economy to changes in key macroeconomic variables for Kuwait. His empirical results suggested that for short horizons of one and two years，shocks to the oil price account for more than 50 per cent of the variance of GDP. However，at longer horizons of three years and more，these shocks are seen to be unimportant in inducing GDP fluctuations，accounting only for less than 10 per cent of the variance. Shocks of real-government expenditure were also found to have a significant role in causing GDP fluctuations.Kuwait is a typical example of an oil-based economy. The oil sector contributes over two-thirds of GDP and over 90 per cent of exports. Although Kuwait tries hard to lessen its dependence on oil through the development of a non-oil sector，its success has so far been，at the best，very modest. The real problem is that oil prices and hence oilrevenues are exogenously determined. As a member of OPEC，Kuwait has no control over the price of its crude oil and at least theoretically speaking cannot exceed its assigned production quota. The objectives of this study are to investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on key macroeconomic variables of the Kuwaiti economy，to examine the direction of causality and to determine the significance of such impacts. This will certainly enhance our understanding of how international oil price fluctuations impact key macroeconomic variables and the dynamic response of these economic variables，including policy variables such as government expenditure and money supply.In this study，the analysis is carried out using two different models，namely，the vector autoregres-sion model (V AR) and the vector error correction model (VECM). The V AR technique is appropriate in this case because of its ability to characterize the dynamic structure of the model as well as its ability to avoid imposing excessive identifying restrictions associated with different economic theories. The use of V AR in macroeconomics has generated much empirical evidence，giving fundamental support to many economic theories (see Blanchard and Watson，1984，Bernanke，1986 among others).In the next section，a brief review of the literature is presented followed by the V AR model along with the data utilized. The empirical results and their interpretation are given in section four，followed by the conclusions.2. THE MODEL2.1. The background of V AR methodologyThe V AR system is based on empirical regularities embedded in the data. The V AR model may be viewed as a system of reduced form equations in which each of the endogenous variables is regressed on its own lagged values and the lagged values of all other variables in the system. An n variable V AR system can be written asA(l)Y t=A+U t(1)A(l)=l-A1l-A2l2-A m l m(2)where Y t is an n × 1 vector of macroeconomic variables，A is an n ×1 vector of constraints，and U t is an n ×1 vector of random variables，each of which is serially uncorrelated with constant variance and zero mean. Equation(2) is an n × n matrix of normalized polynomials in the lag operator l with the first entry of each polynomial on A ' s being unity.Since the error terms (U t) in the above model are serially uncorrelated，an ordinary-least-squares (OLS) technique would be appropriate to estimate this model. However，before estimating the parameters of the model A(l) meaningfully，one must limit the length of the lag in the polynomials. If l is the lag length，the number of coefficients to be estimated is n(nl +c)，where c is the number of constants.In the V AR model above，the current innovations (U t) are unanticipated but become part of the information set in the next period.This implies that the anticipated impact of a variable is captured in the coefficients of lagged polynomials while the residuals capture unforeseen contem-poraneous events. Therefore，an important feature of the V AR methodology is the use of the estimated residuals，called V AR innovations，in dynamic analysis. Unlike in conventional economic modelling，these V AR innovations are treated as an inherent part of the system.In order to analyse the impact of unanticipated policy shocks on the macroeconomic variables in a more convenient and comprehensive way，Sims (1980) proposed the use of impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decompositions (FEVDs). IRFs and FEVDs are obtained from a moving average representation of the V AR model [Equations (1) and (2)] as shown belowY t=Constant+H t(l)U (3)AndH(l)=I+H t l+H2l (4)Where H is the coefficient matrix of the moving average representation which can be obtained by successive substitution in Equations (1) and (2). The elements of the H matrix trace the response over time of a variable i due to a unit shock given to variable j. In fact，these impulse response functions will provide the means to analyse the dynamic behaviour of the macroeconomic variables due to unanticipated shocks in the exogenous variables.Having derived the variance-covariance matrix from the moving-average representation，the FEVDs can be constructed.FEVDs represent the decomposition of forecast error variances and therefore give estimates of the contributions of distinct innovations to the variances. Thus，they can be interpreted as showing the portion of variance in the prediction for each variable in the system that is attributable to its own innovations and to shocks to other variables in the system.2.2. Vector error correction methodology Dickey and Fuller (1979) have emphasized the necessity of analysing the time-series properties of the variables before their relationship can be established. This is necessary because if the variables in question are nonstationary，then the estimated equations will yield spurious and misleading regression results. If the variables in a relationship are stationary then it is generally true that any linear combination of these variables is said to be cointegrated. Johansen’s test (1991，1995) is commonly used to test for cointegration between more than two time series. It also provides estimates of the possible long-term relationships，i.e. the parameters of the relationships that ensure cointegration. In this study，a vector error correction model (VECM) was also estimated.The VECM is basically a V AR system that builds on Johansen ' s test for cointegration and is usually referred to in the literatures as the restricted V AR.2.3. The estimated model and dataThe first step in estimating a V AR model is to make a choice of the macroeconomic variables that are essential for the analysis. Thevariables consist of one external shock measured by innovations in the price of Kuwaiti blend crude oil，three key macroeconomic variables，oil revenues，the consumer price index，(CPI) and the value of imports and three policy variables，Money Supply M2，government current expenditure and government development expenditure. The notations of these variables are as follow：OILP = Oil Price of Kuwaiti Blend CrudeOILR= Oil RevenueEXDEV = Government Development ExpenditureEXCON =Government Current ExpenditureCPI = Consumer Price IndexM2 =Money Demand (M2 Definition)IMPORTS = Value of Imports of Goods & ServicesQuarterly data for the period 1984：1-1998：4 were utilized in this study. The data for the period of the Iraqi occupation and the liberation of Kuwait were removed from the time series for obvious reasons (1990-1991). All data are from the Quarterly Monetary Statistics of the Central Bank of Kuwait and OPEC’s Monthly Bulletin. Similar to the previous studies，all the variables are expressed in logarithmic form. This can be partially justified by the fact that logarithmic forms tend to reduce the scale of the variables，which is a desirable quality when analysing the time-series properties of the variables before their relationship can be established. It is also a useful tool in providing estimates of the possible long-term relationships，i.e. the parameters of the relationships that ensure co-integration.A very important point that should be mentioned here is that the major shortcoming of the V AR approach is its lack of theoretical substance (Cooly and LeRoy，1985; Leamer，1985). In response to this criticism，Blanchard and Watson (1984) and Bernanke (1986) developed procedures，called the structural vector autoregression (SV AR) approach，which combines the features of the traditional structural modelling with those of the V AR methodology. The major advantage of using SV AR comes from the fact that standard V AR disturbances are generally characterized by contemporaneous correlations. In the presence of such correlations，the response of the system，indicated by IRFs，to an innovation in one of the variables is in fact the response to innovations in all those variables that are contemporaneously correlated with it. Similarly，the ability of FEVDs to quantify the relative contributions of specific sources of variation is confounded in the presence of this correlation. However，in standard V AR methodology this contemporaneous correlation is purged by the Cholesky orthogonalization procedure. For the most part，the Cholesky procedure implicitly assumes recursivity in the V AR model as it is estimated. Although theoretical considerations may help in determining this ordering and ex-post sensitivity analysis may further help provide insights regarding appropriate ordering，it remains largely at the discretion of the modeller.The following ordering of equations was adopted in this study; LOILP，LOILR，LEXEDEV，LEXCON，LCPI，LM2 andLIMPORTS. Generally speaking，this ordering reflects the fact that oil prices have an influence on oil revenues and then on all the other variables in the model. However，the behavior of oil prices and to some extent oil revenue are the least determined by other variables included in the model. This is quite a plausible assumption because the oil prices and hence oil revenues which consist of oil export revenues and net factor income from abroad are largely determined by the world market conditions rather than within the Kuwaiti Economy. Similarly，this ordering assumes that the government expenditure is largely determined by the level of oil revenues which again is quite a plausible assumption considering the dominant role of the public sector in driving the Kuwaiti economy. It is also sensible to assume that the value of imports is largely dependent on the level of government expenditure.Since the only variables included are those suggested by economic theory，and since theoretical considerations are important in selecting the ordering used here，the SV AR is not followed in this study. Nevertheless，the approach utilized here can be considered to be in the spirit of the SV AR approach.3. THE EMPIRICAL RESULTSFirst，the V AR technique requires stationary data，thus each series should be examined for stationarity. Table I gives the nonstationary test for all the time-series，using the conventional Dicky-Fuller test (DF)，its augmented version (ADF) and Phillips-Parron t-tests. Thesetests include a constant but no time trend，as recommended by Dickey and Fuller (1979).First，the reported t-statistics，when compared with the critical values obtained by Engle and Yoo (1987)，indicate that almost all the series，except CPI，M2 and IMPORTS，are stationary in the levels as shown by the DF，ADF and Phillips-Perron t-tests. These tests are reapplied after differencing all terms. The t-statistics on the lagged first-difference terms indicate that，for all series the null hypothesis is rejected，that is to say，all series are first differences stationary. However，in transforming a variable，a usual question arises as to whether one should use the variables in the system in levels or in differences. The overall guideline is that if there are k number of cointegrating vector among the variables used in the system，then V AR could be modelled with k stationary and n-k differences of original variables. But if all the variables in the system are nonstationary，using a V AR in levels is appropriate. On the other hand，estimating a V AR in the levels in the case of cointegration may lead to the omission of important constraints.In this context，Doan et al. (1984) noted that differencing a variable is ‘important ' in the case of Box-Jenkins ARIMA Modelling. Doan et al. also observed that it is not desirable to do so in V AR models. Fuller (1976) has also shown that differencing the data may not produce any gain so far as the ‘asymptotic efficiency’of the V AR is concerned ‘even if it is appropriate’.Moreover，Fuller has argued that differencing a variable ‘ throws information away ' while producing nosignificant gain. Thus，following Doan and Fuller’s argument，the level rather than the difference was utilized here.Second，the estimation of a V AR model requires the explicit choice of lag length in the equations of the model. Following Judge et al. (1988) and McMillin (1988)，Akaike’s AIC criterion is used to determine the lag length of the V AR model. The chosen lag length is one that minimizes the following：AIC(n)=Indet∑+(2d2n)/Twhere d is the number of variables in the model，T the sample size and∑n an estimate of the residuals’variance-covariance matrix ∑n obtained with a V AR (n). The maximum lag length is set at five quarters，considering the sample size and number of variables in the model. A maximum lag of greater than five quarters would reduce the degrees of freedom for estimation unacceptably. The result of employing this technique is summarized in Table II，which shows the corresponding AIC values. It can be seen that the AIC criterion is minimized for order 4. This suggests that，for this study，the V AR model should be of order 4.The next step is to estimate the V AR. The estimates along with their t-values are reported in Table III. Although the estimates of individual coefficients in V AR do not have a straightforward interpretation，a glance at the table generally shows that most of the t-values are significant (except for the CPI equation) and almost all of the equations have high R-squares. It also confirms the assertion that oil prices are exogenously determined than other variables included in themodel. However，oil revenue equation has a larger number of significant t-values than current expenditure and CPI.3.1. Variance decompositionTable IV presents the variance decomposition for the 10-quarters forecasts. Table IV shows that initially the variations in all of the variables are typically explained by the variables’ own trends. That is to say，at the beginning，the historical trend of each variable explains a large part of its own variations. For the most part，after ten quarters，about 60 per cent of the variance in oil prices is explained by the variable itself which is indicative of its exogenous nature. On the other hand，oil revenue explained about 93 per cent of its own variations at the first quarter and about 20 percent at the 10th quarter. Moreover，variation in oil prices account for about 45 per cent of the variation in oil revenues starting at the second quarter and through to the tenth. This shows that the causality is running from oil prices to oil revenues. Similar results are also evident for government development and current expenditures. Over a time period，about 15-17 per cent of the variance in government expenditures (development and current) is accounted for by the variations in the oil revenues.Furthermore，looking at the variance decomposition in the government expenditures (development and current) it is observed that following their own variations and oil revenues，the LCPI account for a notable part of the expenditures’ variance. The CPI accounts for onefifth of the current expenditure variations and about 15 per cent of the development expenditure. This is quite a plausible result and very apparent in the case of current expenditure.On the other hand，it is worth noting that the other variable that also picks up a significant part of the variations in government development expenditure is the value of imports. It accounts for about 16 per cent.Looking at the variance decomposition of M2，it is apparent that a noticeable part of its variance is explained by the variance in the CPI (about 33 per cent)，even more than its own variations. Also，oil prices and oil revenue，respectively，account for about 23 and 13 per cent of its variations. These results suggest an important role for money supply.Moreover，over the time period，the results show that 25-45 per cent of the variance in the value of imports is accounted for by the variation in oil revenues alone. Other variables included in the model that exert significant influence on the behaviour of imports are the two types of government expenditure but in particular，the development expenditure.3.2. Impulse responsesFigure 1 displays the Impulse Response Functions，which are essentially the dynamic multipliers .Since the primary interest is to see the response of major macroeconomic variables to the shocks given to the oil revenues and then to the government expenditure，only tentime periods are reported. An inspection of Figure 1 reveals that innovation in the oil prices and hence oil revenue has a similar effect on most of the variables in the model. Generally，most of these variables show an increase in the first quarter. This increase continues in the second and third quarter and then it gradually tapers off over the successive quarters. The only exceptions are the CPI and the value of imports and M2. This may be attributable to the shortcomings in the data set used to estimate the V AR. Recall that LCPI，LM2 and LIMPORTS were found to be non-stationary in the level.3.3. Estimation of the vector error correction model Since most of the variables included in the model pertain to stationary time series data except LCPI，LM2 and LIMPORTS，Johansen’s test (1991，1995) was applied to check for cointegrating vectors. The test indicated that there are four cointegrating vectors. Therefore，a vector error correction model is warranted. A vector error correction model is a V AR that build-in cointegration. Each co-integrating equation adds the parameters associated with the term involving levels of the series which needs to be added to each equation in the V AR. There is a sequence of nested models in this framework. The Johansen test procedure computes the likelihood ratio for each added co-integrating equation.On the basis of Johansen’s test，a Vector error correction model (VECM) was estimated. Four co-integrating equations were estimated using the same seven variables that were used in the V AR. However，since the results of estimating the VECM do not have a direct interpretation，they are not reported here.3.4. Variance decompositionThe variance decomposition results corresponding to the estimated VECM are presented in Table V. They are based on the same ordering as was used in the V AR. Comparing these results with the V AR shows that while the qualitative nature of macroeconomic linkages remains almost the same，the intensity of interaction between the variables is significantly higher when co-integration has been accounted for. For example，looking at the variance decomposition of the oil revenues，it shows that variables like government development and current expenditures have a substantially larger share when compared with the V AR results which increased from 14 per cent to about 40 percent. Similarly，the oil revenue has picked up a relatively larger proportion of the variation in the government current expenditure as well as the value of imports，especially during the first 4-6 quarters. However，the results indicate that variations in LCPI，LM2 and LIMPORTS，after 7-10 quarters，are mainly explained by changes in oil revenue alone.In particular，the variance decomposition of LM2 indicates that a significant part of its variance is explained by the variations in oil revenues (about 46 per cent after 10 quarters)，even more than its own variations. On the other hand，contrary to the result from V AR，LCPI accounts for only 7 per cent.Empirically speaking，the VECM model shows a relatively higher degree of statistical significance. Theoretically speaking，this is because it yields a closer interaction between macroeconomic variables than what the V AR indicated.3.5. Impulse response functionsFigure 2 displays the impulse response functions corresponding to the VECM model. Figure 2 indicates that innovations in the oil prices and oil revenue have a similar impact on the variables included in the model. However，similar to the V AR，most of the variables show an increase for the first few quarters then it gradually tapers off over the successive quarters with the exception of CPI，value of imports and LM2.Comparing these IRFs with those corresponding to the V AR version reveals that it takes a little longer for the multipliers in the VECM version to reach the level of the V AR version. While they generally reached their peak in the V AR version in about 6-7 quarters，it took them 8-9 quarters to reach almost the same level in the VECM version.4. CONCLUSIONS AND SOME POLICYIMPLICATIONSThe primary goal of this paper was to investigate how macroeconomic variables react to fluctuations in the world oil prices. Therefore，two different versions have been estimated，namely，the V AR and the VECM. While the qualitative nature of macroeconomiclinkages remains almost the same in the two models，the intensity of interaction between the variables is significantly higher when cointegration has been accounted for. Thus，quantitatively the two models give results that are significantly different from each other. However，empirically，the VECM gives better results because it yields a closer interaction between macroeconomic variables than by the V AR estimation. The results corresponding to the VECM are also closer to common sense.Nevertheless，the two versions estimated indicated a notable degree of interrelation between the major macroeconomic variables. The results have highlighted the causality running from oil prices towards oil revenues and then towards government expenditure and other variables. However，further assessment of the relationship between these variables，based on orthogonal innovations，lead us to believe that oil price shocks do impact macroeconomic variables in Kuwait and in particular，via government development and current expenditures.The evaluation of the decomposition of the variance of government expenditures suggests that oil revenue fluctuations account for a notable part especially in the case of development expenditure.This result is not surprising and is actually consistent with what is expected in a country in which the government is the sole owner of the main national income source，the oil and gas industry. Thus，government expenditure becomes the major determinant of the level of economic activity and the mechanism by which the government caneffect the circular flow of income within the economy.What is surprising，however，is that one would expect the impact of oil shocks to be much stronger and in particular，in the case of current government expenditure. However，this may be explained by the fact that over the last three decades，the government has accumulated capital reserve (surplus) which is regularly used to finance current government commitments，especially in times of low oil revenue.Moreover，the results also point out the significance of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand，the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. These results suggest that fiscal policy appears to be effective in Kuwait as the oil shocks impact government expenditure and then government expenditure accounts for a relatively considerable part of the CPI and the value of import variations.However，the results from VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 per cent in the 10th quarter even more than its own variations.This exercise has shown a high degree of sensitivity of the results to specification of the variables，i.e. the theoretical structure underlying the V AR. Part of this sensitivity may be attributable to shortcomings in the data set. However，for the most part，it reflects the limitations of。

Challenges for China—the world’s largest antidumping targetBin JiangDoctoral Student in Business Administration,University of Texas at ArlingtonChina has become the world’sbiggest target for antidumping investigations. WTO statistics indicate that since the early 1990s Chinese export products have attracted around 500 investigations that have resulted in more than 350 antidumping measures. What are the reasons behind the proliferation of these investigations against Chinese export products? And how can the Chinese government and export producers deal with such cases against the country in the future?When a product is exported at a price lower than that normally charged for it in its home market, it is often assumed that the exporter is “dumping” the p roduct in the importing country. Antidumping (AD) is the legal framework countries use to place duties or import surcharges on products determined to have been dumped. The legal definitions are more precise, but basically the “Antidumping Agreement” of the World Trade Organization (WTO) allows governments to take action against dumping where there is a genuine (“material”) injury to the competing domestic industry. In order to take such action, the government must prove that dumping is taking place, calculate the extent of it (how much lower the export price is compared to the exporter’s home market price), and show that dumping is actually causing material injury.Why is China targeted?The reasons for the dramatic increase in antidumping cases against Chinese export products are both complex and diverse. Here we present and discuss four of these reasons.Reason 1: Most Chinese export producers compete on cost because local economic conditions make labor- or resource-intensive Chinese products extremely competitive in international markets. The country’s labor rates are approximately one-twentieth of those typically found in developed countries and one-tenth of those found in developing economies like Mexico and Korea. Moreover, China has an abundance of natural resources such as minerals and raw materials. These indigenous advantages allow Chinese manufacturers to produce traditionally labor- or resource-intensive commodities more economically than their counterparts in other countries. However, such products tend to be relatively homogeneous, affording their manufacturers scant competitive advantage and creating minimal entry barriers. If a particular product succeeds in an international market, other Chinese firms can decide relatively easily to enter that market by producing and exporting similar products. This, in turn, precipitates the sort of price cutting that is characteristic of intensely competitivemarkets, with the result that Chinese exporters find themselves competing against each other in cannibalistic price wars. Local government policies also motivate these internecine price wars.Reason 2: China is still treated as a non-market economy (NME). For NME dumping cases, the benchmark of “normal value” is calculated by using data from a surrogate country, but the WTO’s Antidumping Agreement does not specify any criteria for determining which surrogate country is appropriate. Prior to the economic reform movement, China’s centrally planned economic system dominated all industry sectors. Over the last decade or so, this system has gradually shifted away from the socialist model toward a free market model. Today, the Chinese economy lies somewhere between the two and contains many “bubbles of capital-ism”—defined by Neeley (1992) as sectors in a centrally planned economy in which reforms have progressed to the point that all prices and costs faced by the producers in that sector are determined by the market.However, many importing countries automatically treat Chinese export products as NME cases. In order to receive the market-economy case treatment, it is incumbent on Chinese producers to prove that inputs are bought and sold, and that labor is compensated at prevailing market rates. If they do not or cannot provide sufficient evidence that their products are made in the market-economy mode, the importing country will apply the surrogate country method to calculate the dumping margin of the products.Reason 3: Many Chinese exporters do not have the capability or experience to defend themselves against AD charges, but relinquishing the right of self-defense against the charges simply encourages other countries to launch more AD investigations against China.Another factor behind the large number of AD measures that have been enacted against Chinese exports is Chinese firms’ unwillingness to respond to dumping accusations and their general lack of knowledge about how to do so. Most Chinese export producers are medium or smallsized enterprises that lack the information and capability to deal with international trade disputes.Reason 4: Chinese exports have been growing rapidly, with low-priced “Made in China” commodities significantly affecting less competitive domestic firms in importing countries; this motivates the countries to use AD strategies to protect local industries and prevent successful Chinese products from grabbing market share.To minimize further economic losses from AD cases, the Chinese government and exporters will focus their efforts on activities designed to fix or ameliorate the issues that trigger the investigations. Here we offer some predictions about the nature of these activities.Prediction 1: Chinese industry associations will be strengthened and improved as soon as possible so that firms can agree on baseline export prices for products and end the cannibalistic price wars among Chinese provincial exporters. A result of the economic reforms in China is that the government has relinquished its control of imports and exports to local enterprises and thus no longer dictates uniform export prices. This has created an administrative vacuum for pricing in the Chinese export sector. Exporters realize that pricing unions must be established to fill this administrative vacuum and protect their own interests. Accordingly, industry associations will play a growing role in deciding and monitoring the price levels of exports.Prediction 2: If the pace of economic reform in China is maintained or accelerated, Chinese export producers will become increasingly more aggressive when confronted with AD investigations. Otherwise, responses will continue to be as passive as before. The Chinese government still controls the price-setting mechanism for some important products, such as gas, electricity, processed oil, and railway transportation. So an export producer that uses electricity as a significant input for its products has a relatively weak response to an AD charge because the government rather than the market determines the price on one of its key inputs. According to the agreement between China and the WTO, if a Chinese producer under AD investigation can clearly demonstrate that market economy conditions prevail in its industry with regard to the manufacture, production, and sale of that product, the importing WTO member shall use Chinese prices or costs for that industry to determine price comparability.Prediction 3: More and more Chinese export producers will actively respond to AD investigations. Adverse experiences have taught Chinese businesses that they should not back away from confrontation when they are accused of dumping because failing to contest or appeal cases brings almost inevitable penalties. They have also realized that the best way to minimize AD lawsuit losses is to make every effort not to trigger investigations in the first place. To successfully avoid them, a quick response mechanism composed of government departments, import and export chambers of commerce, local foreign trade authorities, and other relevant organizations must be established. Many Chinese exporters are already coordinating with their relevant industry associations to establish early warning AD systemsthat solve cases before they become lawsuits. Firms are also training themselves to follow market changes closely and identify potential AD cases early on. Because the Chinese textile industry is one of the largest targets on many countries’ dumping lists, the China Chamber of Commerce for Textiles has started to monitor the exports of member firms and maintains regular contact with foreign business offices, overseas law offices, and intermediary organizations to protect Chinese textile exports from AD investigations.Prediction 4: The Chinese government will make full use of its WTO membership to resolve dumping issues by using its legal rights or by instigating retaliatory actions. China has suffered many trade sanctions from Western countries because of the 1989 Tiananmen Square political crisis. Since then, China has been seeking a way to separate politics from foreign trade issues. Attaining WTO membership status on November 12, 2001, provided it with the opportunity to legitimately focus on the protection of its international trade without being accused of political chicanery. The indications are that China is already making use of its new WTO member status. For example, during the four years immediately preceding its entry into the WTO, the government initiated only 11 AD investigations against foreign imports. However, during the first six months following its election to the WTO, China initiated eight investigations. In March 2002, when the US decided to impose an 8 to 30 percent tariff on Chinese imported steel products, China quickly retaliated by imposing a 24 percent additional tariff on US soybean oil.According to Prusa (1999), in recent years new AD users have accounted for half the overall world total of these investigations. In fact, many of the heaviest accusers are countries that did not even have an AD statute a decade ago. It is possible these countries believe that precipitating AD investigations is the only way to defend themselves against other countries using the same process against them. China may have already adopted this perspective. The reasons why Chinese exports are so frequently involved in antidumping cases are quite diverse. The cost leadership strategy mandated by indigenous competitive advantages, cannibalistic price wars between provincial exporters, the treatment of investigations as NME cases, the unwillingness and lack of competency in responding to dumping accusations, and the ever increasing trade friction accompanying the surges in global commerce that have occurred over the last decade or so all help explain why China has been so targeted. It will not be easy to alter these factors in the short term. Moreover, China will still be habitually treated as an NME during the first 15 years of its WTO membership, which may even cause the number of AD cases against it to rise. To avoid further losses, Chinese enterprises and theChinese government will change their behaviors as follows: exporters will work closely with industry associations to avoid price wars; they will respond to AD investigations more actively than in the past; and the government will gradually transfer its role in the economy from market player to market watchdog and will act more aggressively to protect its foreign trade interests than it has been able to do in the past. In summary, although antidumping cases against Chinese exports may keep increasing in the foreseeable future, China will learn to fight back more aggressively and effectively.........忽略此处.......。

INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING:GLOBAL REGULATION FOR A GLOBAL INDUSTRYSource:[1]Krishna Prasad,Changing Role of Ship-Brokers,Journal of Information Technology,2004[2]European Community,Overview of the International CommercialShipbuilding Industry,First Marine International Limited.2003[3]ICS,IMO,International shipping:Global Regulation For a GlobalIndustry,International Chamber of Shipping,2007Conclusions from Modal Workshop 4at the 2009 International Transport ForumStatement by the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and theInternational Maritime Organization (IMO)The following statement reflects the discussion during Modal Workshop 4, International Shipping: Global Regulation for a Global Industry, which took place at the 2009 International Transport Forum in Leipzig, Germany, on 27 May 2009.Following several years of incredibly buoyant shipping markets, for many trades the best in living memory, much of the international shipping industry has fallen prey to the worldwide economic downturn. Shipping is inherently the servant of the economy, so the contraction in trade, following the beginning of the ‘credit crunch’ in late 2008, has translated into a dramatic and abrupt reduction in demand for shipping.Initially worst hurt were the containership trades. By the spring of 2009 some 10% of the fleet was already laid up, much of it too modern and expensive to go to recycling yards. However, the dry bulk trades have also been severelyaffected, particularly by the reduction in demand for raw materials from China, with spot market freight rates for some bulk carriers being a fraction of the peak prices achieved in 2008. By April 2009, rates for crude, product and chemical tankers had also fallen very sharply. In general most shipping markets present a rather bleak picture.A major concern of ICS national shipowners’ associations therefore is to discourage governments from responding to the crisis with protectionist measures, which will only damage world trade further. More particularly,governments must avoid measures that restrict fair and open access to shipping markets. Although most shipping today enjoys relatively liberalised trading conditions compared to the days of national cargo reservation in the 1980s,shipping is unusual in that it is one of the few major industries not yet covered by a global multilateral trade agreement. However, the prospect of a new agreement under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO) looks increasingly uncertain. The industry must therefore be extremely vigilant inreacting to any moves towards protectionism in maritime trades, especiallythose using safety and security as a pretext.The shipping industry does not expect special treatment, or the billions of dollars of support being granted by some governments to the likes of the banking and automobile industries. However, to operate competitively and efficiently in very difficult circumstances, shipping requires the maintenance of a regulatory ‘level playing field’, and continuation of the certainty no w provided by the tonnage tax regimes that apply to shipowners in many countries.Shipping is notoriously volatile, and its more experienced practitioners are familiar with the cyclical boom and bust nature of maritime freight rates.However, the contraction resulting from the general global downturn could well be exacerbated by the large number of new buildings due to come into service during the next few years, notwithstanding efforts by many shipowners to cancel or renegotiate contracts. Many of these ships were ordered at high prices at the top of the market.In the face of this two-way pressure, there is likely to be a considerable increase in the number of older vessels that will be sent for dismantling and recycling. In view of the adoption, in May 2009, of a new IMO Convention to address concerns about working and environmental conditions in ship recycling yards, the need for governments to identify facilities that are acceptable for use will become all the more pressing.As the IMO Secretary-General has forcefully identified, financial pressures on the industry must not be allowed to result in any reduction in standards. Much has been achieved in the last 20 years with regard to safety and environmental performance, and no one is suggesting a moratorium on new regulations that genuinely improve safety, which is always the industry’s overriding priority. However, governments need to understand that any immediate regulatory and policy decisions they take must avoid impacting negatively on shipping as it struggles to deal with the currenteconomic situation.Notwithstanding the current gloom and doom, the longer term outlook for the industry remains very good. The world’s population continues to expand, and emerging economies will continue to increase their requirements for the goods and raw materials that shipping transports so safely and efficiently. In the longer term, provided the politicians make sensible decisions, the fact that shipping is the most fuel efficient and carbon friendly form of commercial transport should work in favour of an even greater proportion of world trade being carried by sea.It is to be hoped that Ministers at the International Transport Forum willdeliver a strong statement in support of the maintenance of open shipping markets, and, more generally, promote an early conclusion of the WTO negotiations for a new global trade agreement.China has seen order intake rise steadily over the past five years, achieving a share of 13% by 2002. This has been in line with the plans of central government to develop the industry, with major investment in recent years. However, in terms of market share the industry is still well behind the two leaders in Japan and South Korea. Chinese builders focus in particular on tankers and bulk carriers to gain volume but participate in most market sectors apart from the LNG market. China expects to achieve the capability to build LNG carriers in the near future. It is also only recently that China has developed the capability to build large tankers (aframax and above) and the construction of a greater share of the VLCC market is an aim of the industry. A greater share of the container sector, in particular the large ship sector, is also a goal of the industry. To date container ship construction has been restricted to smaller ships only.The EU industry has seen order intake fall significantly in recent years, in particular due to a downturn in the ordering of cruise ships and loss of share of the container market. Market share in the EU industry is now down to 7%. EU shipyards have lost almost all share of the bulk carrier sector and most of the tanker sector. Container ship market share, the last volume sector in which EU yards have a foothold, has also fallen over the past five years. Increasing reliance has been placed on the passenger and specialised sectors, with shipyards taking a 54% share of ferry orders in 2002 and almost all cruise ship orders. Having said this, order volume for passenger ships was relatively low in 2002 and order intake into EUshipyards was correspondingly low.In effect the industry in the EU has had to retrench into a small number of market niches in recen years, predominantly small ships, passenger ships and specialised ships. The cruise market maintained some volume up to 2001 but with a sharp fall in order intake in that sector the industry as a whole has seen order intake and market share plummet.Japan has seen a steady order intake in recent years, with the market lead alternating with South Korea according to shifts in market and economic conditions. Japan had a very strong market lead in 2002. Japanese shipbuilding’s main product is bulk carriers for the home market, making up almost 40% of all orders taken in 2002. Oil and chemical tankers and gas carriers also make up a significant portion of the industry’s business. Japanese shipbuilding has lost a considerable share of the container ship market to South Korea.South Korea experienced a significant peak of order intake in 2000 and a relatively steady level in other years. South Korean shipyards took over 50% of the container ship market in 2002, over 40% of the oil tanker market and significant shares of the gas and chemical tanker markets. The industry has tried to exit the bulk carrier sector because of low value, although it has been forced to take orders recently to maintain production volume.South Korean builders have been trying to pursue a strategy to address the higher value sectors to maximise profitability, in particular the market for LNG carriers. The scope to do this is limited in relation to the volume of work needed to keep the industry in South Korea busy. The product focus tables included in appendix 3 to this report indicate that whilst there was a significant intake of LNG carriers in 2001, ordinarily this sector makes up less than 10% of the total order intake into South Korea. Korean builders have yet to penetrate the passenger ship sector to any significant degree, this being the other high added value sector that the yards may try to pursue. In a typical year up to around 80% of orders will be from the main bulk cargo sectors, tankers, bulk carriers and container ships.Shipbrokers are intermediaries between the two parties to a contract, whether they are Shipowners and Charterers or buyers and sellers. They may act for one principal and occasionally as the sole broker between the two contractingparties.They will be involved in most aspects of a contract, including circulation of tonnage and business to potential clients, negotiating the main terms of the fixture or sale, finalising the details of the contract and following the contract through toits conclusion. With few exceptions, virtually all second-hand ship purchases are conducted through a Shipbroker. The decision to buy or sell a vessel can have far reaching consequences for an owner in terms of profitability and market position. Shipbrokers are uniquely positioned to offer clients information on market activity that might not otherwise be available. Whilst such information is free to clients, Shipbrokers must earn their living by concluding sales or fixtures. The matter of trust between Shipbrokers and their clients is absolutely paramount and most Owners and Charterers have good relationships with their Brokers which have taken a considerable time to develop. Through their worldwide network of contacts Shipbrokers have a vast pool of information that is available to their clients on a confidential and competent basis.Ship brokering, as a profession, has been in vogue since the early days of commercial shipping. Initially the owner of the ship was also the trader – or in other words, the trader was the owner of the ship. He bought goods in one place, carried the goods in his ship to another place and sold it there. As the trade evolved, the trading activity and the shipping activity were separated; the ship owner merely carried cargo from the trader or various traders in one location to another location and handed it over to the buyers. With the evolution in trade specialization in shipping, the role of ship-brokers became more pronounced. The shipbroker was the intermediary who would find ships for the merchants; and cargoes for the ship owners who often traveled with the ship.The modern day shipping market comprises of, on one side, ship-owners with varying fleet sizes and operators, who though do not own ships but never the less control the commercial operations of ships and on the other side,charterers of varying sizes who control different cargoes – large and small lots; theship-broker as an intermediary between the owners and the Charterers. The primary role of the shipbroker remains to be‘finding ships for cargoes and cargoes for ships’ but modern day communication and computing tools are redefining the finer aspects of Shipbroking.This Paper looks at the role of the shipbrokers in the past, the impact of technology in the profession of ship brokering and the changing role of shipbrokers. Thedry-cargo market is taken for analysis as it is the least standardized shipping market – and perhaps one of the most complicated in terms of practices and commercial operations.This Paper looks at the role of the shipbrokers in the past, the impact of technology in the profession of ship brokering and the changing role of shipbrokers. Thedry-cargo market is taken for analysis as it is the least standardized shipping market – and perhaps one of the most complicated in terms of practices and commercial operations.SHIPBROKINGShipping is an international business. A person dealing with ship-chartering has to work with the conditions prevailing day by day in the international freight market.A large number of customs and rules of the trade have been established through the years all over the world. These rules and ethics are scrupulously followed by the practitioners worldwide else it is not possible to do business worth millions of dollars with parties across the world at short notice.Chartering work is essentially a form of exchange of information. It is a business where the right information at the right moment is essential to be successful. Everyone involved in chartering acts, to a large extent, as a collector, judge and distributor of information. Ship broking can be seen as an information network; a network of people as well as technology that facilitates information exchanges. A great deal of the flow of information consists of details on fixtures all over the world. "Making a fixture" means that the parties interested in a specific sea transport contract reach an agreement through negotiations.The parties involved in a chartering deal are, on the one hand, someone who owns, controls or operates a ship (as an owner, time chartered owner or disponent owner).We shall call him Owner for simplicity. On the other hand, there are persons who require some cargo to be carried by sea transport between two destinations. Normally (but not always) he is the cargo owner. Let us call him charterer. Charterer can act as an owner when he controls the tonnage. There can be various aspects as roles get redefined or can get complex.Ship-brokers normally specialize in a specific segment of the market; be it dry cargo, chemical, passenger vessels, RORO vessels etc. The various marketsegments have their own peculiarities and the market behavior is also varied –forcing the practitioners to adopt specializations.Ship-broking, particularly that of a competitive broker is an opportunity based business. As and when opportunities for new business crop up, the broker has to be on his toes to help conclude the deal. The importance of time is all the more important these days when certain segments of the market see highly volatile fluctuations.The charterers value the brokers’ information, knowledge, skills for negotiation as well as his perception of the market. As in other businesses, value added services generate goodwill and brokers who offer such services stand out among other ordinary ones.Chartering MethodologyThe chartering methodology is in the process of transformation as a result of the revolutionizing changes brought in by digital communication and computing power.Instead of a short list of close contacts, every broker now has hundreds of contacts. Each and every business is flashed to these contacts many times – sometimes more than once a day. This is in contrast to the olden days when, due the high cost of telex communication, businesses were given only to a few contacts.Even after commencement of the negotiation, it is not uncommon for owners (or Charterers) to look at other businesses. They may leave a negotiation half way through and choose to work another business. In the past, once the owner (or charterer) chose a particular business and started negotiations they tried to conclude it. Only if the chosen business fails do they go for another. One could say that the negotiations are no longer focused.The primary function of a shipbroker representing a ship-owner is to find employment for the ships under the control of his principal (the ship-owner or shipoperator).In the case of a ship broker representing a cargo interest, theship-brokers role is to find suitable ships for the cargo which his principal (the charterer) wants to transport. This function requires an in depth knowledge of ship and cargoes, information about Ports, methods of loading and discharging ofvarious cargoes, weather patterns,demand and supply of ships and so forth.With the advent of digital communication and powerful computing techniques ship- brokers’ network has grown far and wide. Each ship broker gets cargo and ship position from a hundred sources or so – over a thousand emails a day. Each broker circulates his prospective businesses – ships looking for cargoes or cargoes looking for suitable ships- to his contacts. Some of these are re-circulated again and again.Managing the vast number of email messages received by a ship broker everyday is a challenge in itself. It may appear that simple solutions like filters, ‘rules’ etc can be used to minimize the inflow of messages. But this may not an easy task considering the fact that almost every message with cargo and ship information is a source of information for the shipbroker. It shows the state of the market in terms of demand and supply of ship. Activating filters often sends many of the wanted messages to the ‘junk’ folder.In the olden times the shipbroker had rather limited reach. Each broker had a few contacts with whom he had interacted regularly using telex as the primary mode ofcommunication. Telex being expensive and less user friendly (relatively), the interaction was limited to bare essentials. Telephone, the other communication method available those days was prohibitively expensive and unreliable when used for long distance contacts. ‘Urgent’ and ‘Lightning’ calls were not connected for hours and hours.As said earlier, shipbrokers track the market activity closely. It is this information that is used by many owners and Charterers to formulate their business strategies.Large ship brokering houses have set up elaborate research outfits. These research units constantly collect data on a wide range of parameters and analyze them. Analytical reports are given to their clients and associates on a regular basis. The Baltic Exchange and some leading ship brokers publishes information on fixtures (contracts) concluded. They also publish indices on various segments of the market.The broker is also expected to advise on the possible trends of rates or availability of cargoes or ships etc. For example, if demand for iron ore increases, the shipsavailable for carriage of grain may drop and so much so, the grain freight rates may shoot up. Is it better to go in for long term time charter or prefer spot market for our requirement of space for next 12 months? An experienced broker can give sound advise in such matters.Disputes are unavoidable in any business deal – particularly when it is carried out across different cultures and under conditions which are dynamic and unpredictable. Although every contract provides a dispute resolution mechanism, the parties to the contract look forward to the intermediaries to anticipate potential dispute areas and take corrective actions. They also look forward to the ship-broker to help resolve any disputes that may come up in spite of the precautions. Ship-brokers, having built up a close rapport with the owner and the charterer are in a position to forge out formulas to find solutions to complicated problems. Commercial prudence can realize that legal disputes take much of time and money and both parties will accept a mutually acceptable and fair solution from a unbiased broker rather go in for costly litigation. Usually the parties to the contract resort to judicial and other dispute resolution mechanisms only after the intermediaries fail.The process of chartering starts with the pre fixture analysis when thetrader/charterer gives the basic details of the business to his broker (or in – house shipping department) who estimates the achievable freight rate. The broker, in addition to giving the freight rate also advises the trader about important parameters affecting the particular business. Using this information, the trader concludes the sale deed and asks the shipping department or the broker to fix the ship.The freight market is not a uniform one; it consists of various part markets that are not dependent on each other. The demand and supply and the market behavior of each of these segments are not necessarily inter related. Individual segments behave in their own way. It is not uncommon to see one segment riding the crest of a market boom when another one will be reeling under depressive pressures.The information and data required for analyzing the market trends for each segment is as different as the various segments in the industry. In addition to supply and demand, the state of the market also depends on economic situation, price of oil, war,strikes, weather and climatic factors, good or bad harvest, governmental policies, and so on and so forth. The hands-on broker need to have his data basespread over a wide variety of parameters to give meaningful information to his clients.Owning and operating a commercial ship in international and domestic trades is a complicated process that requires extensive experience and a large amount of capital (which limits entry by people unfamiliar to the business). You can't just buy a ship and sail off for a few months and then resell the ship to launder your money. Shipping is a highly cyclical business with volatile vessel values. Ship operation is very expensive – it costs $5-10,000 minimum per day to operate a ship and if someone does not know what they are doing, the losses can pile up fast.Offshore companies have been set up for decades with sophisticated structures that even financial institutions have trouble identifying who is the true ship owner - let alone the S&P broker who has no financial data available regarding a single purpose ship owning company.In the regular course of his business the S+P broker knows the market and what ships are or may become available for sale and who may be interested in purchasing them. The S+P broker provides sales candidates (i.e. a ship) to a buyer, arranges the inspection of the vessel, communicates the negotiations between the buyer / seller leading to an agreement, prepares the sales contract and coordinates the transaction until the ship is delivered and the agreed price is paid.We estimate that approximately 1,000 large ships are sold worldwide per year and the U.S. brokers may sell 25-50 of those (roughly 2.5-5.0 percent) .There are more than a hundred ship brokerage firms outside of the U.S.that provide sale and purchase services. In the U;S. there is only a handful, so it should be noted that putting restrictions on their activities would put them at a competitive disadvantage with foreign brokers. Regulations must be universal and apply to brokers in all countries – we estimate that 95-97 % of ship sale transactions take place outside of the U.S.If a ship owner has the choice between a foreign broker requiring no disclosure vs. a U.S. broker that requires extensive paperwork and registration, the choice is obvious and the small amount of business that currently gets done will dry up for the Americans.国际海运业：国际产业的国际规则Source:[1]Krishna Prasad,Changing Role of Ship-Brokers,Journal of Information Technology,2004[2]European Community,Overview of the International CommercialShipbuilding Industry,First Marine International Limited.2003 [3]ICS,IMO,International shipping:Global Regulation For aGlobal Industry,International Chamber of Shipping,2007在2009年国际航运公会和国际海事组织组织的国际运输论坛模型研讨会上得出的结论。

国际贸易基础英语词汇International Trade 国际贸易World Trade 世界贸易Foreign Trade 对外贸易Overseas Trade 海外贸易Domestic Trade 国内贸易WTO（World Trade Organization）世界贸易组织The Ministerial Conference 部长会议The General Council 总理事会Goods Council 货物贸易理事会Service Council 服务贸易理事会TRIPS Council 知识产权理事会Non-discrimination 非歧视原则/无差别原则DSB (Dispute Settlement Body) WTO争端解决实体(机构) IMF（International Monetary Fund）国际货币基金组织World Bank 世界银行Value of Foreign Trade 对外贸易额（值）Quantum of Foreign 对外贸易量Value of International Trade 国际贸易额Quantum of International Trade 国际贸易量FOB（Free On Board）离岸价格CIF（Cost Insurance and Foreign）到岸价格Re-Export Trade 复出口贸易Re-Import Trade 复进口贸易Net Export 净出口Net Import 净进口Balance of Trade 贸易差额Balance of Payments 国际收支差额Composition of Trade 贸易结构Composition of Foreign Trade 对外贸易结构Composition of Foreign Goods Trade 对外货物贸易结构Composition of Service Trade 对外服务贸易结构Composition of International Trade 国际贸易结构Composition of International Goods Trade 国际货物贸易结构Composition of International Service Trade 国际服务贸易结构Geographic Distribution of Foreign Trade 对外贸易地理方向Geographic Distribution of International Trade 国际贸易地理方向Goods Trade 货物贸易Visible / Tangible Goods Trade 有形贸易Technology Trade 技术贸易Export Trade 出口贸易Import Trade 进口贸易Transit Trade 过境贸易Spot Trade 自由结汇贸易Cash-liquidation Trade 现汇贸易Barter Trade易货贸易/ 无形贸易Direct Trade直接贸易Indirect Trade 间接贸易General Export 总出口General Import 总进口Special Trade System 专门贸易体系International Division of Labor 国际分工Adam Smith 亚当·斯密Theory of Absolute Cost 绝对成本理论Theory of Absolute Advantage 绝对优势理论Theory of Territorial Division of Labour地域分工说David Ricardo 大卫·李嘉图The Labour Theory of Value 劳动价值论Bertil Ohlin贝蒂·俄林Eli F Heckscher 伊·菲·赫克歇尔Factor Endowments Theory 资源/要素禀赋理论The Heckscher—Ohlin 赫克歇尔—俄林理论The Leontief Paradox 里昂惕夫之迷（里昂惕夫反论）GDP（Gross Domestic Product）国内生产总值GNP（Gross National Product）国民生产总值World Market 世界市场International Market 国际市场Terms of Trade 贸易条件Economic Integration 经济一体化Regional Economic Integration 地区经济一体化Preferential Trade Arrangements优惠贸易安排Free Trade Area 自由贸易区Customs Union 关税同盟Common Market 共同市场Complete Economic Integration 完全经济一体化Sectoral Integration 部门一体化Overall Integration 全盘一体化Horizontal Integration 水平一体化Vertical Integration 垂直一体化GATT (General Agreement On Tariffs and Trade）关税及贸易总协定GATS (General Agreement On Trade In Services)服务贸易总协定ITO (International Trade Organization) 国际贸易组织EU (European Union) 欧盟EC (European Communities)欧洲共同体APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) 亚太经济合作组织NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement/Area) 北美贸易协定/区CESDP (Common European Security and Defense Policy）欧盟共同安全与防务政策European Commission 欧盟委员会Council of European Union 欧盟理事会European of Council 欧洲理事会European Parliament 欧洲议会European Court of Justice 欧洲法院European Court of Auditors 欧洲审计院Trade Creating Effect 贸易创造效果Trade Diversing Effect 贸易转移效果Foreign Indirect Investment 对外间接投资Short-Term Credit 短期贷款Medium-Term Credit 中期贷款Long-Term Credit 长期贷款Free Trade Policy 自由贸易政策Protective Trade Policy 保护贸易政策Customs Duties / Tariff 关税Import Duties 进口税Export Duties 进口税Transit Duties 过境税Revenue Tariff 财政关税Protective Tariff 保护关税Prohibited Duty 禁止关税MFN Duties ( Most Favored Nation Duties ) 最惠国税GSP（Generalized System of Preferences普遍优惠制）普惠制Escape Clause 免责条款Prior Limitation 预定限额Competitive Need Criterion 竞争需要标准Graduation Clause 毕业条款Rule of Origin 原产地规则Process Criterion 加工标准Value-Added Criterion 增值标准Preferential Duties 特定优惠关税Import Surtaxes 进口附加税Counter-Vailling Duty 反补贴税And-Dumping Duties 反倾销税Comparable Price 可比价格Normal Price 正常价格Target Price 目标价格Threshold Price 门槛价格Variab Lelevy 差价税Specific Duties 从量税Ad Valorem Duties 从价税Mixed Or Compound Duties 混合税/复合税Alternative Duties 选择税Sliding Duties 滑动关税Customs Tariff 海关税则Tariff No、Heading No、Tariff Item 税则号列Description of Goods 货物分类目录Rate of Duty 税率Customs Cooperation Council Nomenclature 《海关合作理事会税则目录》HS（The Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System）商品名称及编码协调制度Single Tariff 单式税则Complex Tariff 复式税则Autonomous Tariff 自主税、国定税、通用税则Automatic Single Tariff System 自助单式税则Automatic Complex Tariff System 自主复式税则Maximum and Minimum Tariff System 最高最低税率制/双重税率制Conventional Tariff 协定税则Import Declaration 进口报关单NTB’s（Non-tariff Barriers）非关税壁垒Import Quotas System 进口配额制/进口限额制Global/Unallocated Quotas 全球配额Absolute Quotas 绝对配额Country Quotas 自主配额Autonomous Quotas 自主配额Agreement Quotas 协议配额/双边配额V oluntary Export Quotas 自动出口配额Import Licence System 进口许可证制度Foreign Exchange Control 外汇管制Advanced Deposit 进口押金制Internal Taxes 国内税Minimum Price 最低限价TBT (Technical Barriers To Trade) 技术性贸易壁垒Technical Regulations 技术法规Technical Standards 技术标准Conformity Assessment Procedures 合格评定程序ISO（International Organization for Standardization）国际标准化组织SAC（Standardization Administration of China）中国国家标准化管理委员会Packaging and Labeling Regulation 商品包装和标准规定Export Credit 出口信贷Supplier’s Credit 卖方信贷Buyer’s Credit 买方信贷Export Credit Guarantee System 出口信贷国家担保制Export Subsidy 出口补贴Direct Subsidies 直接补贴Indirect Subsidies 简介补贴Dumping 商品倾销Export Control 出口管制General License 一般许可证Validated License 特殊许可证Free Port 自由港/自由口岸Free Trade Zone 自由贸易区Bonded Area 保税区Export Processing Zone 出口加工区Free Perimeter 自由边境区Transit Zone 过境区Commercial Treaties and Agreement 贸易跳越和协定Most-Favored-Nation Treatment 最惠国待遇条款National Treatment 国民待遇条款Treaty of Commerce and Navigation 通商航海条约Trade Agreement 贸易协定Payment Agreement 支付协定Single Account 单边账户Bilateral Account 多边账户International Commodity Agreement 国际商品协定Buffer Stock 缓冲存货Multilingual Contracts 多边合同Integrate Programme for Commodities 国际商品综合方案Common Fund 共同基金Multilateral Trade Negotiation 多边贸易谈判Cross-border Supply 跨境交付Consumption Abroad 境外消费Commercial Presence 商业存在Movement of Personal 自然人流动2010年11月17日。

FDI (对外直接投资):making a physical investment by building a factory in another country.Trade surplus( 贸易顺差)when the value of a country’s export is more than that of its imports. Trade deficit(贸易逆差)when the value of a country’s export is less than that of its imports. Barter(物物交换 ):buy or sell goods or services without the use of money. Duping (倾销) :sell the goods with a price lower than its cost or lower than its domestic price to a foreign market. Free trade (自由贸易): the movement of goods and services among nations without political or economic barriers. Export tax rebate (出口退税):government pays back the tax for the export commodities to encourage export. Export subsidies (出口补贴):payments given by the government to domestic companies to encourage export.Import quota(进口配额): a limit on the quantity of a certain import in a specific period. Trade Protectionism（贸易保护主义）:the use of government regulations to limit the import of goods and services. Advocates of protectionism believe it allows domestic producers to survive, grow and produce jobs. Embargo（贸易禁运）:a complete ban on the import or export of a certain product or the stopping of all trade with a particular country. Contract（合同）: is an agreement signed by the seller and the buyer which regulates t he both parties’ right and obligation as well as the detailed information on the transaction. Time regulation of submitting the Documents: the original documents must be presented within 21 working days after the date of shipment, and before the expiry date of L/C in any case. Commission（佣金）:commission is a payment given to the middleman for his service.Time charter (定期租船)：rent a ship for a period of time. Time of shipment (发货时间)：the time for loading the goods on board at the port of shipment. Partial shipment（分批运输）:means goods in one contract would be shipped in more than one lot. Transshipment (转运)：means the goods should be transferred to another ship during the transportation. Lay time （装卸时间）:the time used for loading or unloading the goods. Demurrage（逾期费）:the money paid by the charterer to the ship owner for the delay of loading or unloading .B/E (汇票):is a payment advice made by the exporter (drawer) to the importer (drawee),Drawee should pay the money to payee when he receive the B/E. Sight B/E（即期汇票）:Drawee should pay money to the payee when he receives the B/E immediately. B/E（远期汇票）:Drawee should pay money to payee in a specific date in future.Drawee should accept the time B/E. L/C（信用证）:is a conditional written promise for payment of bank .L/C is issued by the bank to the seller. Sight L/C（即期信用证）:the bank should pay the money immediately when the exporter provides the qualified documents . Usance L/C（远期信用证）:bank would pay the money in a specific date in future. Collection （托收）:The exporter authorizes the bank to collect the payment from the importer by drawing a draft. Packing list（装箱单）:is adocument made by the exporter to indicate the detailed information on shipment. Pro forma invoice(形式发票):is an informal invoice made by exporter indicating the transaction information. Commercial invoice(商业发票)formal. Customs invoice(海关发票)is the invoice made by the exporter based on the special form regulated by the importer’s customs. B\E(汇票)is a payment advice made by the exporter to the importer. Drawee should pay the money to the payee when he receives the B\E.Bill of Lading（提单）: Bill of Lading is a receipt from the shipping company giving detailed information about shipment issued by shipping company to shipper.Shipped BL(已装船提单): showing the goods have been shipped on board. Received BL(备运提单): showing the goods received by the shipping company but have not shipped on board. Endorsement（背书）: The document would be transferred by its owner signing the name on the back of the document. Insurance Document(保险单据):It‘s the insurance contract made by the insurer and the insured：the insurer would take the insurance responsibility according to the insurance coverage. Certificate of Inspection（检验证书）：It‘s a document certifying the result of commodity inspection insured by an inspection institution. Certificate of Origin(原产地证书)：It‘s a document issued by governmental institution to certify the place where the goods have been produced.公式：insurance amount (保额)=CIF×(1+10%)Premium(保险费)=CIF×(1+10%)×premium rateCFR=CIF×(1-1,1×Premium rate)Net price =C－included price ×(1-commission rate)Commission=C－included price×commission rateFreight =W/M(choose the higher one )Total freight =unit price ×units×(1+surcharge)。

外文翻译原文international trade theoryMaterial Source:Boston college Author:J ames E.Anderson Adam Smith (1776) held that a country could gain from free trade. He pointed out that if one country has an absolute advantage over the other in one production and the other country has an absolute advantage over the first in another production, both countries gain from trading. But Smith failed to create a convincing economic theory of international trade. It is generally agreed that David Ricardo is the creator of the classical theory of international trade. The theories of comparative advantage and the gains from trade are usually connected with his name, even though many concrete ideas about trade existed before his Principles (Ricardo, 1817). In this theory the crucial variable used to explain international trade patterns is technology. The theory holds that a difference in comparative costs of production is the necessary condition for the existence of international trade. But this difference reflects a difference in techniques of production. According to this theory, technological differences between countries determine international division of labor and consumption and trade patterns. It holds that trade is beneficial to all participating countries.The Ricardian theory failed to determine the terms of trade, even though it can be used to determine the limits in which the terms of trade must lie. It was recognized long ago that in order to determine the terms of trade, it is necessary to build trade theory which not only takes account of the productive side but also the demand side. The neoclassical theory holds that the determinants of trade patterns are to be found simultaneously in the differences between the technologies, the factor endowments, and the tastes of different countries. Preference accounts for the existence of international trade even if technologies and factor endowments were completely identical between countries. The Marshallian offer curve has been often used to analyze problems such as the existence of equilibrium, the stability of equilibrium, the gains from trade, and optimum tariffs and so on within staticframeworks. Mill introduced the equation of international demand, according to which the terms of trade are determined so as to equate the value of exports and the value of imports. He argued: “the exports and imports between the two countries (or, if we suppose more than two, between each country and the world) must in the aggregate pay for each other, and must therefore be exchanged for one another at such values as will be compatible with the equation of the international demand”. Mill initiated the theory of reciprocal demand which is one of the earliest examples of general equilibrium analysis in trade theory.The Ricardian model and Heckscher-Ohlin model are two basic models of trade and production. They provide the pillars upon which much of pure theory of international trade rests. The so-called Heckscher-Ohlin model has been one of the dominant models of comparative advantage in modern economics. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory emphasizes the differences between the factor endowments of different countries and differences between commodities in the intensities with which they use these factors. The basic model deals with a long-term general equilibrium in which the two factors are both mobile between sectors and the cause of trade is different countries having different relative factor endowments. This theory examines the impact of trade on factor use and factor rewards. The theory is different from the Ricardian model which isolates differences in technology between countries as the basis for trade. In the Heckscher-Ohlin theory costs of production are endogenous in the sense that they are different in the trade and autarky situations, even when all countries have access to the same technology for producing each good. This model has been a main stream of international trade theory. According to Ethier (1974), this theory has four “core proportions”. In the simple case of two-commodity and two-country world economy, we have these four propositions (which are of course held under certain conditions) as follows: （1）factor-price equalization theorem by Lerner (1952) and Samuelson (1948, 1949), stating that free trade in final goods alone brings about complete international equalization of factor prices; (2) Stolper-Samuelson theory by Stolper and Samuelson (1941), saying that an increase in the relative price of one commodity raises the real return of the factor used intensively in producing that commodity and lowers the real return of the other factor; (3) Rybczyn ski theorem by Rybczynski (1955), stating that if commodity prices are held fixed, an increase in the endowment of one factor causes a more than proportionate increase in the output of the commodity which uses that factor relatively intensively and an absolute decline in the output of the other commodity;and (4) Heckscher-Ohlin theorem by Heckscher (1919) and Ohlin (1933), stating that a country tends to have a bias towards producing and exporting the commodity which uses intensively the factor with which it is relatively well-endowed.The Heckscher-Ohlin theory provides simple and intuitive insights into the relationships between commodity prices and factor prices, factor supplies and factor rewards, and factor endowments and the pattern of production and trade. Although the Heckscher-Ohlin model was the dominant framework for analyzing trade in the 1960s, it had neither succeeded in supplanting the Ricardian model nor had been replaced by the specific-factor trade models. Each theory has been refined within ‘small scales’. Each th eory is limited to a range of questions. It is argued that as far as general ideas are concerned, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory may be considered as a special case of the neoclassical theory mentioned before as it accepts all the logical promises of neoclassical methodology. The Heckscher-Olin theory may be seen as a special case of the neoclassical trade theory in which production technology and preferences are internationally identical. This loss of generality has long been held necessary in order to construct a clear picture of international trade patterns and division of labor and consumption.Ricardo’s initial discussion of the concept of comparative advantage is limited to the case when factors of production are immobile internationally. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory is similarly limited to the study of how movements of commodities can substitute for international movements of productive factors. It is obvious that if technologies are everywhere identical and if production is sufficiently diversified, factor prices become equalized between countries. But if production functions differ between countries, no presumption as to factor equalization remains. Most of early contributions to trade theory deal with goods trade only and ignore international mobility of factors of production. For a long period of time since Ri-ardo, the classical mobility assumption had been well accepted. This assumption tells that all final goods are tradable between countries whereas primary inputs are non-tradable, though they are fully mobile between different sectors of the domestic economy. In reality, this classical assumption is invalid in many circumstances. For instance, many kinds of final’ goods, services, are not-trade and capitals are fully mobile between countries as well as within domestic economies. A great deal of works on trade theory has been concerned with examining the consequences of departures from these assumptions. There is an extensive literature on various aspects of international factor mobility.It may be true to say that most of the pure theory of international trade emerged from Ricardo’s Principles. The further development of the subject by Mill, Marshall and Edgeworth remained largely within the bounds set by Ricardo. Since then, there had been much attention focused on the determination of the terms of trade by reciprocal demand within frame-works of many goods, countries and factors under various forms of intervention. As mentioned by Findlay (1984), one topic that was almost entirely absent from the pure theory of international trade was any consideration of the connection between economic growth and international trade in classical literature of economic theory. Almost all the trade models developed before the 1960s are static in the sense that the supplies of factors of production are given and do not vary over time; the classical Ricardian theory of comparative advantage and the Heckscher-Ohlin theory are static since labor and capital stocks (or land) are assumed to be given and constant over time. Although Marshall held that it is important to study international trade in order to be clear of the causes which determine the economic progresses of nations, it has only been in the last three or four decades that trade theory has made some systematical treatment of endogenous capital accumulation or technological changes in the context of international economics.Eaton (1987) proposed a dynamic two-sector, three factors model of international trade. The dynamic specification of the model is based on Sam uelson’s (1958) overlapping generation’s model. The dynamic model at each point of time t proposed by Eaton is identical to the three-factor, two-commodity model examined in a static context by Jones (1971), Samuelson (1971) and Mussa (1974). The model tries to extend the Heck-scher-Ohlin theory to include endowments of factor as endogenous variables. In this model land and capital serve not only as factors of production but also as assets which individuals use to transfer income from working periods to retirement. The model shows that changes in the terms of trade and in the endowments of fixed factors do not necessarily have the same effects on factor prices and on the composition of output as they do in a static framework. Some results obtained from the specific-factors model about the relationships between commodity prices and factor prices, factor endowments and factor rewards, and factor endowments and the pattern of production are not held in the dynamic model. For instance, a permanent increase in the relative price of one commodity does not necessarily lower the steady-state income of the factor specific to the industry producing the other commodity.译文国际贸易理论资料来源:波士顿大学作者：詹姆斯·安德森亚当·斯密（1776）认为，国家能够从自由贸易中获益。

国际贸易专业英语怎么说你知道国际贸易专业的英语怎么说吗?下面压力看看吧。

国际贸易专业的英文释义：international trade major国际贸易专业的英文例句：天津商贸大学国际贸易专业的黄河(音译)，18岁，选修了一门翡翠珠宝鉴赏课。

Huang He, an 18-year-old international trade major at Tianjin University ofCommerce, takes a class on jade jewelry.就读于韩国东亚大学国际贸易专业三年级，21岁的金尚英表示，相对而言，韩国学生在选择专业方面更加自由。

In contrast, Korean students enjoy more freedom in choosing a major, accordingto Kim Son-yong, 21, a junior in international trade at Dong-A University in ROK.毕业于西安交通大学国际贸易专业，并取得学士学位的齐春梅，是经济危机后进入新能源领域工作的诸多年轻人中的一员。

Qi, who graduated from Xi’an Jiaotong University with a bachelor’s degree ininternational trade, is one of many young people who have entered the newenergy sector following the economic crisis.卢新文，19岁，就读于南京大学国际贸易专业，他认为或许他们这一代可以创造出中国的超人。

Lu Xinwen, a 19-year-old business major at Nanjing University, thinks hisgeneration might be the one to make a Chinese Superman.19岁的周敏敏是武汉大学国际贸易专业的学生。

目录1 外文文献图片 (1)2 外文文献译文 (6)3外文文献原文 (12)外文文献译文总结：在最近的这几年来，贸易自由化对于国内的影响一直受到严密的监控。

贸易自由化和全球化的其它方面被指责成造成美国的收入不均和欧洲的失业率的根本原因。

问题的关键还在于低工资发展中国家的贸易。

虽然经济学家一直都在研究这个问题,但是却并没有找到明确的答案。

本文探讨了这种模棱两可的问题的一些原因。

内生性和同时性虽然可以产生主要的问题，但这引起业内人士指责，还是应该应该适当地归因于其他因素的发展。

但是即使仅仅针对贸易自身，它也有不能确定的影响。

这只是在最简单的赫克歇尔-俄林理论下,批评者对贸易自由化可以预测的明确结果。

1介绍在最近几年来，贸易和经济开放一直在增长,于是各个利益集团的获利影响一直被争论。

低技能工人的工资和薪水在因为全球化可能引起的潜在后果，受到特别的关注。

由于工业化国家与发展中低薪水国家的贸易份额得到增加，导致这场争论已经愈演愈烈。

在美国以及欧洲，人们对于工作，工资和生活标准时刻处于风险当中而感到恐惧的情况普遍存在，尤其是在和那些从底薪国家来的工人直接与直接竞争的地区尤为严重。

在经济学家中，争论集中在美国收入显著不平等的兴起和欧洲的失业率持续增加引起的贸易和技术变革的相对贡献。

贸易经济学家们倾向于应该减少在这些发达国家的交易规则，而大量的劳动经济学家则抱持着相反的意见。

尽管这场争论远远没有解决争端,但是它在理论和实证两个方面揭示了极其复杂的问题。

第二节列出了基本问题以及在所有商品自由流通的基础上交易的两个产品-三个要素模型对工资和就业影响的后果。

第三节部分认为最终产品就是非流通股，但它的一些部件和组件可以流通，从而可以从境外进行采购。

境外采购可能涉及海上生产和对外直接投资。

第四节探讨了资本流动的影响。

第五部分在讲述潜在的失业问题。

第六节提供了一些结论性的意见。

2海外采购和相对工资传统贸易理论的奠基石之一是在因素比例在测定专业化和贸易时的作用。

国际贸易专业英语单词 IMB standardization office【IMB 5AB- IMBK 08- IMB 2C】国际贸易专业英语Unit 1mercantilism重商主义；export出口；import进口；precious metal贵金属；restrain import限制进口；encourage export鼓励出口；early（late） mercantilism早期（晚期）重商主义；bullionism重金主义；favorable balance of trade; positive trade balance;trade surplus贸易顺差；trade deficit; unfavorable balance of trade;negative trade balance贸易逆差；balance of bargains贸易差额论barter; barter trade易货贸易；hard currency硬通货；physiocrat重农主义者；physiocracy重农主义；laissez-faire自由主义；monopoly垄断；tariff关税；quota配额；prohibition禁令；skilled labor熟练劳动力；manufactured goods制成品port duty入港税；country of origin原产地；The wealth of Nations国富论；positive-sum game正和游戏；zero-sum game零和游戏；specialization专业化；economies of scale规模经济；welfare福利； 1 free-market economics自由市场经济classical economist古典经济学家；oversupply供大于求；过度供给；inflation通货膨胀；Industrial Revolution工业革命；free trade policy自由贸易政策；protectionism保护贸易主义；international monetary system国际货币体系；gold standard金本位；exchange rate汇率；international price国际价格；devaluation贬值；depreciation贬值；appreciation升值；revaluation升值；the Great Depression大萧条；Keynesian凯恩斯主义者；countercyclical policy反周期政策；centrally planned system中央计划体制；economic affair经济事务；bilateral trading agreement双边贸易协定；foreign exchange外汇；foreign exchange control外汇管制；The Marshall Plan马歇尔计划；The Bretton Woods agreement布雷顿森林协定；GATT关税与贸易总协定；multilateral free trade多边自由贸易；economic well-being经济福利；recession衰退；neo-mercantilism新重商主义；government intervention政府干预2 Unit 2 comparative advantage比较优势；absolute advantage绝对优势；trade barriers贸易壁垒；terms of trade贸易条件；opportunity cost机会成本；perfectly competitive market完全竞争市场；Unit 3Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model赫克歇尔-俄林-萨缪尔森模型；Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek model赫克歇尔-俄林-凡奈克模型；Heckscher-Ohlin（H-O）theory赫克歇尔-俄林理论；factor proportions theory 要素禀赋理论；factor of production生产要素；capital-intensive product资本密集型产品；labor-intensive product劳动密集型产品；capital-abundant country资本充裕的国家；labor-abundant country劳动充裕的国家；the Stolper-Samuelson theorem斯托尔珀-萨缪尔森定理；the factor-price equalization theorem要素价格均等化定理/赫克歇尔-俄林-萨缪尔森定理；the Rybczynski theorem罗伯津斯基定理；rental rate租金率；wage rate工资率； 3 Leontief paradox里昂惕夫之谜；non-traded good非贸易品Unit 4new trade theory新贸易理论；conventional trade theory传统贸易理论；Harberger’s triangle哈伯格三角；deadweight loss净损失；government intervention政府干预；price floor and cap价格下限和上限；supply curve供给曲线；demand curve需求曲线；consumer surplus消费者剩余；producer surplus生产者剩余；long term长期；long run长期；income-distribution收入分配；income-distribution effect收入分配效应；technological innovation技术创新；increasing returns to scale规模收益递增；returns to scale规模收益；productivity stagnation生产力停滞；intra-industry trade产业内贸易；Unit 5economic loss经济损失；anti-dumping tariff/anti-dumping duty反倾销税；normal value正常价值；constructed value结构价值； 4 anti-dumping suit反倾销诉讼；intellectual property right知识产权；subsidy补贴；Dispute Settlement Body争端解决机构；trade dispute贸易纠纷；Department of Commerce商务部；anti-dumping tax rate反倾销税率；Custom海关Unit 6European Union欧盟；OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operationand Development )经济合作与发展组织；OEEC欧洲经济合作组织；developed (developing) countries发达（发展中）国家；sustainable economic growth持续的经济增长；emerging market economies新兴市场经济体；international trade policy国际贸易政策；the Doha round多哈回合；industrialized countries工业化国家；producer support estimate生产者支持估计量；beneficiary受益人；common agricultural policy共同农业政策；market mechanism市场机制；household income家庭收入world bank世界银行；the Agreement on Subsidies and CountervailingMeasures补贴与反补贴措施协议； 5 the Uruguay Round乌拉圭回合；the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 关贸总协定；the Tokyo Round东京回合prohibited subsidies禁止性补贴；actionable subsidies可申诉补贴；non-actionable subsidies不可申诉补贴；transitional arrangement过渡性安排；centrally planned economy中央计划经济；market economy市场经济；government purchase政府购买；prohibited subsidies禁止性补贴；red-light subsidies红灯补贴；actionable subsidies可申诉补贴；yellow-light subsidies黄灯补贴；non-actionable subsidies不可申诉补贴；green-light subsidies绿灯补贴Unit 7anti-dumping litigation反倾销诉讼；market access市场准入；discriminatory treatment歧视性待遇；Agreement on Safeguards特殊保障协议；Most-favored-nation treatment最惠国待遇；China’s protocol of accession to the WTO中国入世协定书；non-market economy非市场经济； 6 market economy市场经济；economic efficiency经济效益；the WTO dispute settlement procedureWTO争端解决程序dispute settlement system争端解决机制；Department of Commerce商务部；third market第三国市场；supply and demand供给与需求；labor cost劳动力成本；average cost平均成本；marginal cost边际成本；constructed value结构价值escape clause免责条款；rent-seeking behavior寻租行为Unit 8trade deficit贸易赤字；贸易逆差；入超；exchange-rate manipulator汇率操作者；bilateral trade surplus双边贸易顺差；balance of trade 贸易差额；trade gap贸易差额；domestic consumption国内消费；investment投资；global financial crisis全球金融危机；economic recession经济衰退fixed assets investment固定资产投资；trade dependency外贸依存度； 7 net value added净增加值；household consumption家庭消费；domestic demand国内需求；high-tech product高科技产品；fiscal deficit财政赤字；current account经常账户；capital and financial account资本与金融帐户；saving rate储蓄率；Unit 9Free Trade Area of the Americas/FTAA美洲自由贸易区；preferential trade arrangement优惠贸易安排；free trade area自由贸易区；custom union关税同盟；common market共同市场；economic union经济联盟；Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum/APEC亚太经济与合作组织；pan-American trade泛美贸易；regional trade agreement区域贸易协定；economic integration经济一体化；regional economic integration区域经济一体化；the Pacific Rim环太平洋地区；regional dialogue区域对话；consensual agreement自愿协议；world trading order世界贸易秩序 8 Unit 10public health公共卫生；minimum wage最低工资；trademark商标；global economy全球经济；environmental standard环境标准；labor standard劳工标准；manufacturing job生产工作；average income平均收入；real wage实际工资；nominal wage名义工资9。