DTM 3 Chapter 3 Techniques for Acquisition of DTM

2009高考英语阅读理解精读（2）：MethodofScientificInquiryWhytheinductiveandmathematicalsciences,aftertheirfirstrapiddevelo pmentattheculminationofGreekcivilization,advancedsoslowlyfortwothousa ndyears—andwhyinthefollowingtwohundredyearsaknowledgeofnaturalandmat hematicalsciencehasaccumulated,whichsovastlyexceedsallthatwasprevious lyknownthatthesesciencesmaybejustlyregardedastheproductsofourowntimes —arequestionswhichhaveinterestedthemodernphilosophernotlessthantheob jectswithwhichthesesciencesaremoreimmediatelyconversant.Wasittheemplo ymentofanewmethodofresearch,orintheexerciseofgreatervirtueintheuseoft heoldmethods,thatthissingularmodernphenomenonhaditsorigin?Wasthelongp eriodoneofarresteddevelopment,andisthemoderneraoneofnormalgrowth?Orsh ouldweascribethecharacteristicsofbothperiodstoso-calledhistoricalacci dents—totheinfluenceofconjunctionsincircumstancesofwhichnoexplanatio nispossible,saveintheomnipotenceandwisdomofaguidingProvidence?Theexplanationwhichhasbecomecommonplace,thattheancientsemployedde ductionchieflyintheirscientificinquiries,whilethemodernsemployinducti on,provestobetoonarrow,andfailsuponcloseexaminationtopointwithsuffici entdistinctnessthecontrastthatisevidentbetweenancientandmodernscienti ficdoctrinesandinquiries.Forallknowledgeisfoundedonobservation,andpro ceedsfromthisbyanalysis,bysynthesisandanalysis,byinductionanddeductio n,andifpossiblebyverification,orbynewappealstoobservationundertheguid anceofdeduction—bystepswhichareindeedcorrelativepartsofonemethod;and theancientsciencesaffordexamplesofeveryoneofthesemethods,orpartsofone method,whichhavebeengeneralizedfromtheexamplesofscience.Afailuretoemployortoemployadequatelyanyoneofthesepartialmethods,a nimperfectionintheartsandresourcesofobservationandexperiment,careless nessinobservation,neglectofrelevantfacts,byappealtoexperimentandobser vation—thesearethefaultswhichcauseallfailurestoascertaintruth,whethe ramongtheancientsorthemoderns;butthisstatementdoesnotexplainwhythemod ernispossessedofagreatervirtue,andbywhatmeansheattainedhissuperiority .Muchlessdoesitexplainthesuddengrowthofscienceinrecenttimes.Theattempttodiscovertheexplanationofthisphenomenonintheantithesis of“facts”and“theories”or“facts”and“ideas”—intheneglectamongt heancientsoftheformer,andtheirtooexclusiveattentiontothelatter—prove salsotobetoonarrow,aswellasopentothechargeofvagueness.Forinthefirstpl ace,theantithesisisnotcomplete.Factsandtheoriesarenotcoordinatespecies.Theories,iftrue,arefacts—aparticularclassoffactsindeed,generallyco mplex,andifalogicalconnectionsubsistsbetweentheirconstituents,haveall thepositiveattributesoftheories.Nevertheless,thisdistinction,howeverinadequateitmaybetoexplainthe sourceoftruemethodinscience,iswellfounded,andconnotesanimportantchara cterintruemethod.Afactisapropositionofsimple.Atheory,ontheotherhand,i ftruehasallthecharacteristicsofafact,exceptthatitsverificationispossi bleonlybyindirect,remote,anddifficultmeans.Toconverttheoriesintofacts istoaddsimpleverification,andthetheorythusacquiresthefullcharacterist icsofafact.1.Thetitlethatbestexpressestheideasofthispassageis[A].Philosophyofmathematics.[B].TheRecentGrowthinScience.[C].TheVerificationofFacts.[C].MethodsofScientificInquiry.2.Accordingtotheauthor,onepossiblereasonforthegrowthofscienceduringthedaysoftheancientGreeksandinmoderntimesis[A].thesimilaritybetweenthetwoperiods.[B].thatitwasanactofGod.[C].thatbothtriedtodeveloptheinductivemethod.[D].duetothedeclineofthedeductivemethod.3.Thedifferencebetween“fact”and“theory”[A].isthatthelatterneedsconfirmation.[B].restsonthesimplicityoftheformer.[C].isthedifferencebetweenthemodernscientistsandtheancientGreeks.[D].helpsustounderstandthedeductivemethod.4.Accordingtotheauthor,mathematicsis[A].aninductivescience.[B].inneedofsimpleverification.[C].adeductivescience.[D].basedonfactandtheory.5.Thestatement“Theoriesarefacts”maybecalled.[A].ametaphor.[B].aparadox.[C].anappraisaloftheinductiveanddeductivemethods.[D].apun.Vocabulary1.inductive归纳法inductionn.归纳法2.deductive演绎法deductionn。

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1
Introduction
The continuum theories of the flow of vehicular traffic [1–3] are analogous to the hydrodynamic description of fluid flow. The kinetic theories of vehicular traffic [4– 6] are extensions of the kinetic theory of gases whereas the ”car-following models” [7–10] and the recent particle-hopping models [11–29] are analogues of the models of driven system of interacting particles [30]. Therefore, the theoretical techniques of fluid dynamics and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics have turned out to be powerful tools in the study of a wide variety of problems in the science and engineering of vehicular traffic [31–33]. One of the most popular ”particle-hopping models” of vehicular traffic is the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NaSch) model [11], which may be regarded as a stochastic cellular automaton (CA) [34], where the timeevolution of the vehicles is formulated in terms of a set of ”rules”. Several extensions of these rules have been suggested in recent years (see, e.g., [21–29]) to make the model more realistic; in this paper we study some of the statistical properties of one such extension [25]. The flux versus density of the vehicles is known as the fundamental diagram [31]. The distance-headway (DH) is defined as the distance from a selected point on the lead vehicle (LV) to the same point on the following vehicle (FV); usually the front edges or bumpers are selected [31]. The time-headway (TH) is defined as the time interval between the departures (or arrivals) of two successive vehicles recorded by a detector placed at a fixed position on the highway [31]. The fundamental diagram, the DH and TH distributions, the distributions of the sizes of the traffic jams as well as the distribution of the gaps between successive jams in the NaSch model on idealized single-lane highways have been calculated [11–20]. Very recently, the update ”rules” of the NaSch model have been extended by adding a step where the so-called ”slow-to-start” rules (which will be explained in the next section) [25– 28] are implemented. The fundamental diagram of some of these CA models with ”slow-to-start” rules have been investigated [28]. The main aim of this paper is to calculate, by a combination of analytical and numerical methods, the distributions of DH, TH, jam sizes and distances between jams in the CA model with the ”slowto-start” rule suggested by Benjamin, Johnson and Hui (BJH) [25] to study the effects of the slow-to-start rule on the spatio-temporal organization of traffic. We interpret the novel features of these distributions in terms of a phase separation of the traffic in the BJH model. The NaSch model [11] and the BJH model [25], which was formulated by BJH by incorporating one specific type of ”slow-to-start” rule in the updating scheme of the NaSch model, are stated in section 2 for the sake of completeness. The theoretical techniques, which will be used in our analytical calculations, and the numerical methods, which will be followed in our computer simulations, are also explained briefly in the same section. The probability distributions, namely the distributions of DH, TH, jam sizes and gaps between jams, with which we are mainly concerned in this paper, are defined in section 2. Our results for the DH distributions are presented in section 3. Our analytical as well as numerical results for the distributions of jam sizes and jam gaps are presented in sections 4 and 5, respectively, while those for the TH distributions are given in section 6. We make a quantitative estimation of the regime of validity of our analytical expressions by computing an appropriate correlation function in section 7. A summary of our results and conclusions drawn from these are given in section 8. Three appendices contain details of our analytical calculations.

You will learn some commonly required formats from the following instructions for abstracts to be submitted to conferences. Conference papers in format requirements.doc
• When you prepare an abstract for a paper to be presented at a conference, you should also follow the rules for writing a journal paper abstract. You should state the purpose of the study, describe the methods, summarize the results in sufficient details to support the conclusions, and give the conclusions reached. 无忧PPT整理发布
Unit 3
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Conference
• Papers • Abstracts • Posters • Proposals
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Papers
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Performance Management and Appraisal Main points Performance and performance management 360-Degree feedback Methods of individual performance appraisal Balanced scorecard Problems of PM and performance interview Performance Performance Organizational performance Individual performance OP NIP Criteria of performance What constitute the PMS Corporate level –the balanced scorecard Individual level – the performance appraisal Integrated process- linkage of the above with HRM practices such as setting goals training and development of employees pay benefits changes in job and organization design Performance Management System PMS focuses on creating and maintaining core competence at the organizational and individual level PMS maintains a strategic perspective on the interactions of various levers of change on peoples behavior Individual performance appraisal PA means evaluating an employees current or past performance relative to hisher performance standards Objectives of performance appraisal To motivate staff reward feedback To develop staff To provide essential mgt information eg Assessing overall training and development needs Capability and knowledge management 绩效管理和传统绩效考核的区别传统的绩效考核 1 事后控制2 自上而下没有反馈3 以人力资源部为主4 薪酬奖金绩效管理和传统绩效考核的区别 Choice of Raters Supervisor Advantages connected with promotion reward punishment stand at a higher point Disadvantagespsychological load due to connection with Reward Payment short of training for appraisal de-motivate employee if not appropriate Peer Advantages comprehensive real Disadvantages far away from truth due to competitiveness or afraid of hurting a friend Subordinate Advantages Help manager develop managerial skills balanced the managers power Disadvantages dare not tell the truth of hisher boss for fear of dismissal do not understand hisher boss work Self Advantages comprehensive not much stress good for improvement Disadvantages overestimate 90 think they are above average can not be the basis for promotion and incentive Customer Advantages objective good for customer-orientation Disadvantages NO uniform standard time cost energy cost Expert For high-level manager Cost is too high Points of 360 Degree Feedback Main objective develop not evaluate Key Criteria KPI related to organizational performance Train evaluators Quick feedback and communication Effective goal setting SMART Goal P157 Specific Absolute terms satisfactory completion Measurable Quantitative terms Attainable Challenging but not too difficult encourage employees participation Relevant Consistent with organizational objectives Timely reflect deadlines and milestones Employee comparison systems Graphic rating scales Behavior observation scales Behaviorally anchored rating scales Management-by-objectives Strengths Low cost Practical Time efficient Eliminates some rating errors Aids decision making Weaknesses Accuracy and fairness questionable Failto direct or monitor behavior Cross-departmental comparisons difficult Firms performance appraisals Balanced score card 创建人 Balanced score card 以财务性数据为主的绩效管理体系平衡计分卡的优缺点 Rating errors --Halo effect --Leniency--Strictness--Central tendency--Primacy--Recency--Contrast effects 1 Halo effect P169 Halo effect is where an evaluation on one dimension influences evaluation on all the others Lack of conscientiousness Vague performance standards 2 Leniency P169 Leniency problem is the process of evaluating someone too easily 3 Strictness P169 Error of strictness is the process of evaluating someone too harshly Political Lack of conscientiousness Vague performance standards 4 Central tendency P169 Error of central tendency is the process of evaluating all the employees about average on all dimensions Administrative procedures Poorly defined scales 5 Primacy bias Primacy bias is the bias of giving the first information greater weight Cannot observe all aspects of employees job performance Categorizing employees by type of person 6 Recency bias Recency bias gives more weight to the last information Memory decay Failure to document job performance throughout appraisal period 7 Contrast effects If a criterion is notclear or a ranking system is used contrast effects will occur How to avoid appraisal problems Training the raters Developing appraisal criteria from documented job analysis Choosing the right appraisal tools BARS for service industry Increasing times of appraisal formal and informal Inviting subordinate participation Diary-keepingThe Appraisal Interview Types of interview TYPE Performance is satisfactory----employee is promotable satisfactory---- Not promotable Unsatisfactory----correctable OBJECTIVE Make development plans Maintain performance Plan correction Principle of interview Assembling the data Informing the employee at least one week earlier Enough time during the interview A quiet but not closed room Let employee relaxed Encourage the person to talk Help employee to improve his performance Dont get personal Be specific and direct Get agreement on how things will be improved and by when Process ofPerformance Management 案例一摩托罗拉绩效管理企业产品服务企业管理人力资源管理人力资源管理绩效管理摩托罗拉给绩效管理下的定义是绩效管理是一个不断进行的沟通过程案例一摩托罗拉绩效管理沟通内容 1 员工应该完成的工作2员工所做的工作如何为组织的目标实现做贡献3用具体的内容描述怎样才算把工作做好4员工和主管怎样才能共同努力帮助员工改进绩效5 如何衡量绩效6确定影响绩效的障碍并将其克服案例一摩托罗拉绩效管理一绩效计划在这个部分里主管与员工就下列问题达成一致1 员工应该做什么2 工作应该做多好3 为什么要做该项工作4 什么时候要做该项工作5 其他相关的问题环境能力职业前途培训等绩效目标业务目标business goals行为标准behavior standard 案例一摩托罗拉绩效管理二持续不断的绩效沟通强调全年的沟通和全通道的沟通 1 沟通是一个双向的过程目的是追踪绩效的进展确定障碍为双方提供所需信息2防止问题的出现或及时解决问题前瞻性 3定期或非定期正式或非正式就某一问题专门对话 4在这个过程中也要形成必要的文字记录必要时经主管和员工双方签字认可案例一摩托罗拉绩效管理三事实的收集观察和记录 1收集与绩效有关的资讯2记录好的以及不好的行为收集资讯全面好的不好的都要记录而且要形成书面文件必要的要经主管与员工签字认可以上两个过程一般在二三季度完成进入四季度也就进入了绩效管理的收关阶段到了检验一年绩效的时候了案例一摩托罗拉绩效管理四绩效评估会议摩托罗拉的绩效评估会议是非常讲究效率的一般集中一个时间所有的主管集中在一起进行全年的绩效评估它主要包括以下四个方面1做好准备工作员工自我评估2对员工的绩效达成共识根据事实而不是印象3评出绩效的级别4不仅是评估员工而且是解决问题的机会最终形成书面的讨论结果并以面谈沟通的形式告知员工考核结束不是说绩效管理就到此为止还有一个非常重要的诊断过程案例一摩托罗拉绩效管理五绩效诊断和提高这个过程是用来诊断绩效管理系统的有效性用来改进和提高员工绩效主要包括以下四个方面1确定绩效缺陷及原因2通过指导解决问题3绩效不只是员工的责任4应该不断进行 10个方面的工具衡量1我有针对我工作的具体明确的目标2这些目标具有挑战性但合理不太难也不太容易3我认为这些目标它对我有意义4我明白我的绩效达到目标是如何评估的5我觉得那些绩效标准是恰当的因为它们测量的是我应该做的事情6在达到目标方面我做的如何我能得到及时的反馈7我觉得我得到足够的培训使我能得到及时准确的反馈8公司给我提供了足够的资源例如钱仪器帮手等使我达到目标成为可能9当我达到目标时我得到赞赏和认可10奖励体系是公平的我因为自己的成功而得到奖励案例二罗芸与老马的绩效考核分歧飞宴航空食品公司服务于航空公司和其他订购盒饭和西餐的单位雇佣厨房人员采购全部原料提供给客户不搞分包制罗芸ＭＢＡ毕业公司总部四年的职能性管理工作担任飞宴航空食品公司地区经理近一年负责管理１０家供应站点每站有一个主任负责一定范围内的客户销售和服务老马供应站主任主任主要负责计划编制预算监控分管指定客户的销售服务员等活动资格最老只念过一年大专从厨房代班长干起三年前上任善于搞关系铁杆客户没有流失的客户部下经指点和培养得到提升作其他地区的经理但是不良饮食带来了健康问题请假３个月给罗打电话的次数超过了其他９位的总数好邀功案例二罗芸与老马的绩效考核分歧机会罗芸需要副手一名即地区副经理老马公开说他资格最老业绩好非他莫属罗芸觉得两人的管理风格太悬殊老马的行为会激怒地区和公司的工作人员绩效考评１０分制１０分为最优７－９良好５－６合格中等３－４较差１－２最差结果虽然老马一年的工作不错但是罗给了６分理由不注意卫生病假３个月案例二罗芸与老马的绩效考核分歧思考１罗对老马的绩效考评是否合理需要改进的地方２预计老马的反应如何罗怎样处理３如果你是老马对罗的结果采取怎样的态度和做法为什么案例二罗芸与老马的绩效考核分歧启示完整的绩效管理过程包括绩效计划绩效沟通绩效考核和绩效反馈四个方面１绩效计划绩效管理的起点上级和员工共同讨论达成一致２绩效沟通上下沟通预防或解决实现绩效可能发生的问题３绩效考核确定主题和方法作出评价４绩效反馈绩效周期结束上下级的绩效面谈告诉结果和不足一起制定改进计划案例中没有共同绩效计划缺乏全面评价的根据没有绩效沟通主观地考核不能公正公平和合理 Strengths Combine the benefits of critical incidents and quantitative rating Useful for directing and monitoring behavior Weaknesses Research has not substantiated its superiority over other methods Choosing one indicative behavior Time consuming to develop Behaviorally Anchored Rating Scales Goal Setting Planning Evaluation Management-By-Objectives Strengths Directing and monitoring behavior Performance standards are objective Practical and inexpensive Employee participation Weaknesses Does notspecify behaviors Focus on short-term Factors outside workers control Standards vary User acceptance Management-By-Objectives Financial indexes 1970s 1980s Product quality 1990s Satisfactory of customers Recent Balanced score card on managerial and competitive ability 指标构成核心构想财务衡量指标非财务衡量指标顾客满意度企业必须通过创新与学习持续改善企业内部运作过程获得最大化的客户满意才能获得不凡的财务收益罗伯特·S ·卡普兰和大卫· P ·诺顿内部流程创新与学习平衡记分卡是哈佛大学财会学教授罗伯特·S ·卡普兰和复兴方案公司总裁大卫· P ·诺顿在积累了大量实践经验的基础上建立的一套革命性管理系统目标考量财务面我们在股东眼里的表现目标考量客户面我们在客户眼里的表现目标考量内部运营面什么是关键成功因素什么业务流程是最优目标考量学习与成长面我们能保持创新变化和不断提高使命和策略飞行高度飞行速度耗油量以收益为基础的财务数字仅能够衡量过去决策的结果却无法评估未来的绩效表现容易误导企业未来发展方向当财务指标为企业绩效评估的唯一指标时容易使经营者过分注重短期财务结果急功近利有强烈动机操纵报表上的数字而不愿就企业长期策略目标进行资本投资由于不重视非财务性指标的评估致使企业竞争力下降原本强劲的财务数字有可能逐渐恶化财务性数据发生的根本原因不做深入的分析和调查片面的指标收集难以推动整体绩效的改善客户面内部流程财务性指标非财务性指标销售收入利润总额资金回笼现金流量成本支出全自动双缸单缸 xxxxxxxx xxxx xxx xxxxx xxxx xxx xxxxx xxxx 学习与成长面以公司竞争战略为出发点全面动态地评估有效防止次优化行为提出具体的改进目标对信息系统的灵敏性要求高对企业管理基础的要求比较高优点缺点罗克沃特公司是一家全球性的工程建筑公司的全资资公司在水下工程建筑业中处于全球领先地位高级管理团队把公司的愿景和战略转化为平衡计分卡愿景作为受顾客欢迎的供货商我们应成为行业领导者战略提供需要的服务顾客满意持续改进员工素质提高股东预期实现资本报酬率现金流项目盈利性业绩可靠性财务层面客户层面内部层面学习成长金钱的价值竞争性价格无争吵的关系表现优异的专业人员创新塑造顾客需要中标率品质服务安全损失控制良好的项目管理持续改进产品和服务创新得到授权的员工罗克沃特的战略目标 Human Resource Management 资本报酬率现金流项目盈利性利润预测可靠性销售储备财务层面客户层面内部层面创新与学习价格指数顾客排名调查顾客满意度指数市场份额与顾客讨论新工作的小时数投标成功率返工安全事件指数项目业绩指数项目终止周期新服务收入所占比例提高指数员工态度调查员工合理化建议数员工人均收益罗克沃特的平衡计分卡评估 Human Resource Management Causesof Halo Effect Highest lowest Highest lowest Causes of Leniency strictness Errors 1 2 3 4 5 Causes of Central Tendency Error 1 2 3 45 Stereotyping 1 23 4 5Similarity Causes of primacy bias Causes of Recency Error 1 2 3 45 P167 KPI Appraisal method Process of appraisal Appraisal interview Compensation Training Development Raters training Organizational strategy Results What Behavior How Performance Behaviors and results of jobs related to the organizational goals Quantity CostFinancial Quality Timing Behavior 合格率错误率投诉支出费用总额实际费用和预算的对比增长率利润率生产率产品数量处理零件的数量接听电话会见客户销售额利润限期胜任特征关键行为 P FSOME Skill Motivation Environment Opportunity Performance Factors influencing performance External Factors Internal Factors 绩效管理 1 控制方式事前事中及事后 2 沟通方式自上而下和自下而上结合反馈充足 3 公司各个部门都是绩效管理主体全员参加 4 薪酬福利晋升培训等人力资源相关领域u 行政使用 l 补偿 l 晋升 l 解雇 l 降职 l 临时解雇开发使用 l 识别优势 l 识别成长领域 l 开发计划 l 培训和职业生涯计划绩效管理 Strategic Plan Effective Performance Appraisal System Direct Behavior Correct Behavior Monitor Behavior Input Into Employment Decisions Perceived Fair And Accurate Process Improved Job Performance Improved Employment Decisions Minimized Litigation And Job Dissatisfaction Competitive Advantage Importance of Performance appraisal Supervisors Employee Subordinates Customers Self-rating Outside observers Peer 360 Degree Feedback 360 Degree Feedback systems are used most often as feedback devices Companies considering the use of 360-degree ratings for evaluative purposes shouldproceed cautiously --Appraised by the immediate supervisor--Self-ratings--Using peer appraisals--Appraised by customers--Appraised by subordinates--Rating committees Basic Appraisal Methods 1 Mike Winkle 2 Robert King3 Sally Morris4 Fred Taft Mike Robert Sally Fred MikeRobert Sally Fred Alternation Ranking Paired Comparison A B C D E 5 15 70 Forced Distribution EX --Exceptional WD --With distinction HS-- High standard RI --Room for improvement NA --unacceptable Employee Comparison Systems Ranking Methods Unsatisfactory Satisfactory Outstanding Quantity of work Qualityof work Dependability Graphic Rating Scale P160 Traits and a range of Performance Strengths Low cost Practical Single form applicable to all or most jobs in organization Weaknesses Accuracy questionable Fail to direct behavior Nonspecific job performance feedback Graphic Rating Scale P160 almost neveralmost always 1 2 3 4 5 ___1 Sets clear priorities for multiple goals ___2 Coaches subordinates effectively ___3 Breaks projects into doable components ___4 Develops subordinatesknowledge and skills ___5 Listens to employees concerns ___6 Seeksdecision input from subordinates Behavioral Observation Scale---Critical incident method Strengths Useful for directing and monitoringbehavior Useful for providing specific feedback WeaknessesTime-consuming to develop Behavioral Observation Scales EffectiveIneffective Group member has read all agreed-upon material Group memberparticipates in discussions though not always prepared Group member doeslittle work and offers no valuable ideas or feedback 5 4 3 2 1 Qualityof Group Member Input Behaviorally anchored rating scales BARS。