第四十一篇 Too Little for Global Warming
Oil and gas will run out1 too fast for doomsday global warming scenarios2 to materialize, according to a controversial new analysis presented this week at the University of Uppsala in Sweden. The authors warn that all the fuel will be burnt before there is enough carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to realize predictions of melting ice caps and searing temperatures. Defending their predictions, scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change3 say they considered a range of estimates of oil and gas reserves, and point out that coal-burning could easily make up4 the shortfall. But all agree that burning coal would be even worse for the planet.
The IPCC’s predictions of global meltdown pushed forward5 the 1997 Kyoto Protocol6, an agreement obliging signatory nations to cut CO2 emissions. The IPCC considered a range of future scenarios, from unlimited burning of fossil-fuels to a fast transition towards greener energy sources. But geologists Anders Sivertsson, Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campbell of Uppsala University say there is not enough oil and gas left even the most conservative of the 40 IPCC scenarios to come to pass7.
Although estimates of oil and gas reserves vary widely, the researchers are part of a growing group of experts who believe that oil supplies will peak as soon as 2010, and gas soon after. Their analysis suggests that oil and gas reserves combined amount to the equivalent of about 3,500 billion barrels of oil considerably less than the 5,000 billion barrels estimated in the most optimistic model envisaged by the IPCC. Even the average forecast of about 8,000 billion barrels is more than twice the Swedish estimate of the world’s remaining reserves.
Nebojsa akicenovic, an energy economist at the University of Vienna, Austria who headed the 80-strong IPCC team that produced the forecasts, says the panel’s work still stands8. He says they factored in9 a much broader and internationally accepted range of oil and gas estimates than the “conservative”Swedes.
Even if oil and gas run out. “there’s a huge amount of coal underground that could be exploited.” He says that burning coal could make the IPCC scenarios come true, but points out that such a switch would be disastrous. Coal is dirtier than oil and gas and produces more CO2for each unit of energy, as well as releasing large amounts of particulates. He says the latest
analysis is a “shot across the bows10” for policy makers.词汇: doomsday /5du:mzdei/n.世界末日signatory /5si^nEtEri/adj.签约的signatory /5si^nEtEri/ adj.签约的envisage /in5vizidV/v.设想，打算采取carbon dioxide (CO2)二氧化碳Swede /swi:d/n.瑞典sear /siE/ v.灼热，烧灼disastrous /di5zB:strEs/adj.灾难性的shortfall /5FC:tfC:l/n.缺少，不足particulate /pE5tikjulit/n.微粒protocol /5prEutEkCl/n.协议注释:
1. run out:被用完
2. doomsday global warming scenarios:全球变暧这一世界求末的场景。scenarios:指“预料或期望的一系列事件的模式”，在戏剧中指“一场，一景”。
3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC):政府间气候变化专门委员会
4. make up:弥补
5. push forward:抓紧进行，推进
6. Kyoto:京都（日本本州中西部一峻市）。Kyoto Protocol:京都议定书（京都议定书是《联合国气候变化框架公约》的约定俗成的称呼。京都议定书规定，到2010年，所有发达国家排放的二氧化碳等六种温室气体的数量，要比 1990年减少 52%。)
7. come to pass: happen, occur (发使)
8. the panel’s work still stands委员会的工作结果 (即对世界燃料的存量估算 )仍然站得住脚。
9. factor in:包括，把……计算在内，如:They factored sick days and vacations in when they prepared the work schedule. 当他们准备工作时间表时，他们把病假和假期都包括在内。
10. shot across the bows:泼冷水，使……打消计划和念头
练习:
1. What do the authors of the new analysis presented at the University of Uppsala intend to say? A The burning of coal will accelerate the arrival of Earth’s doomsday. B The oil reserves are big enough to materialize the doomsday scenarios. C Melting ice caps and searing temperatures exist only in science fiction. D Oil and gas will run out so fast that Earth’s doomsday will never materialize.
2. Nations that signed the Kyoto Protocol agree to A pay attention to global meltdown. B cut CO2 emissions. C use more green energy. D stop using fossil fuels.
3. What are the estimates of the world’s oil and gas reserves? A 4,000 billion
