Financial Times报道1:Will the US-China trade war impact on global growth?The US decision to impose tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports marked a serious escalation in its hostilities with Beijing over trade. Yet economists believe protectionist measures will have only a modest impact on global growth — provided the bilateral conflict does not turn into an all-out multilateral war.These four charts help explain why.International trade in goods has already fallen as a proportion of global output in recent years, despite the upswing in the world economy. This is partly because of currency effects and changes in commodity prices, but manufacturers are also becoming less reliant on imported inputs and popular hostility to globalisation may also be playing a part, with trade disputes and the use of anti-dumping measures on the rise even before the latest rounds of tariffs.2.So far, tariffs affect only a small proportion of global tradeAlthough the US-China conflict now looks likely to affect the vast majority of the goods traded between the two countries, it makes up a modest proportion of global trade. Even if the US acts on all the threats it has made so far, only around 5 per cent of global imports would be affected3.For most countries, trade ties with near neighbours are the most importantWorld trade is largely concentrated in three regions: North America, Europe and East Asia, with a large share of trade being intra-regional.4. Emerging markets may benefit if the dispute leads China to trade more with neighbours in south-east Asia.International trade is largely composed of trade flows between rich countries and the East Asian region but developing countries’ trade withChina is increasingly important. A big question now is whether other countries in south-east Asia are able to benefit from greater integration with China as existing trade flows are diverted to new markets, and if Chinese manufacturers seek to shift production to countries not affected by tariffs.报道2: China stocks tumble on US trade war concerns （Financial times）Chinese stocks cemented their position as the world’s worst performing major equity market on Monday, as they missed out on the return of some stability following last week’s global ructions.After rising 22 per cent in 2017, the CSI 300, an index of some of the largest companies listed on the Chinese mainland, has tumbled by the same amount so far in 2018, making it one of the bigger casualties of the US-China trade dispute. China’s ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, told Fox News on Sunday that Beijing had not wanted a trade war but had “to respond and defend our own interests”.The sharp drop in Chinese equities, which hit a record peak in the middle of 2015 before plunging for the rest of that year, comes at an awkward time for foreign investors after index provider MSCI in June included more than 200 of the A-shares in its widely followed emerging market benchmark for the first time.George Efstathopoulos, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said the trade wars had driven weakness in Chinese equities, with those companies most exposed to US trade hit hardest. The concern over trade tensions has deepened existing worries over whether Chinese consumer spending is slowing down.On Monday, the CSI 300 finished 1.4 per cent lower, bringing its decline since it peaked for the year in late January to 28 per cent. Strategists at Citigroup pointed to an almost 25 per cent decline in car sales in September as evidence of the pressure on China’s consumers.Although Chinese economic growth slowed in the second quarter to 6.7per cent, strategists at Citi believe that the full drag from the trade dispute is yet to be felt. “We think the impact will show up in the coming quarters once the supply chains start to relocate elsewhere.”New York-based MSCI said last month that it was consulting with investors over a plan to double the number of A-shares in the EM index to 434 by May 2020, which MSCI estimates would attract about $66bn from passive and active funds.Gary Greenberg, head of global emerging markets at Hermes Investment Management, said the current weakness in Chinese stocks should not present a big risk to the inclusion of A-shares in the index, and that improving corporate governance in A-share companies was key.The continued weakness in Chinese equities was a sharp contrast to the performance of European markets which, as trading opened on Wall Street, had erased earlier losses. The S&P 500 was down 0.2 per cent in early trading, and after last week’s decline, is up just 3.5 per cent for the year.Beyond stocks in Shenzhen and Shanghai, the Hong Kong bourse was also under pressure on Monday. Tencent, the Chinese consumer technology company whose decline has been a significant drag on the Hang Seng index, fell a further 1.9 per cent on Monday. Its stock has now plunged 40 per cent from its January peak.Monday also saw a 2 per cent drop in Japan’s Nikkei 225, but analysts put much of that down to the 7 per cent drop in shares of SoftBank, which counts Saudi Arabia as the biggest investor in its Vision Fund. The kingdom, has come under intense pressure from politicians and business leaders over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.CHIAN daily报道3Trade war threatens global growth: IMF （From China daily） NUSA DUA, Indonesia — International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Thursday warned countries of the perils of a trade or a currency war, saying they could be detrimental to global growth and hurt “innocent bystanders”.Lagarde, at the outset of the World Bank’s annual meeting with the IMF, urged countries to “de-escalate” trade frictions and fix global trading rules, rather than abandon them.We certainly hope we don’t move in either direction of a trade war or a currency war. It will be detrimental on both accounts for all participants,”Lagarde told a news conference during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank on the Indonesian resort island of Bali.And there would also be lots of innocent bystanders.”She also defended central bank rate hikes in a veiled rebuke to Donald Trump after the US president blamed “crazy”Fed policies for contributing to financial market turmoil. A global market sell-off rolled on following Trump’s comments.Lagarde said central bank rate increases such as those by the policy-setting US Federal Reserve were justified by fundamentals.“It is clearly a necessary development for those economies that are showing much-improved growth, inflation that is picking up ... unemployment that is extremely low,”she said. “It’s inevitable that central banks make the decisions that they make.”Following a sharp Wall Street sell-off on Wednesday, Trump said the Federal Reserve “is making a mistake”.“I think the Fed has gone crazy,” he said.In the shadowThreats to growth and the trade that helps drive it are overshadowing the gathering of finance officials, central bankers and other leaders on Bali, a tropical tourist destination that reflects Indonesia’s own rapid development over the past three decades.World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said escalating trade tensions between the US and China could undo global progress in helping end extreme poverty.He joined Lagarde and others in warning of the risks to world growth and economic development from threats to world trade after the US imposed tariffs on tens of millions of dollars of Chinese exports and China responded with similar retaliatory taxes on imports of US goods. “We’re very concerned about trade tensions,” Kim said. “Trade is very critical because that is what has lifted people out of extreme poverty. “I am a globalist. That is my job. That is our only chance of ending extreme poverty. We need more trade not less trade.”He said the World Bank was working with countries to prepare for a worsening situation because if tariffs were imposed to the most extreme limits there would be a “clear slowdown and the impact on the developing countries would be greater”.Lagarde said she would advise Washington and Beijing to cool down.．报道四Trade standoff hits US and China stocks（China Daily）Stocks slumped on global markets on Tuesday as investors began to fear that the China-US trade dispute could erupt into an all-out trade war. In China, Shanghai stocks tumbled 3.78 percent to a two-year low of 2,907.82, while Shenzhen was down 5.31 percent.The selloff spread to other Asian markets and to Europe. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index finished 2.76 percent lower. Stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt declined.In the US, all the major indices fell as the Dow Industrials lost 287.26points or 1.15 percent to finish at 24,700.21, the average's worst day this month, which pushed it slightly negative for the year.As they did on Monday, US industrial companies including heavy equipment maker Caterpillar and aerospace company Boeing – the biggest US exporter to China –declined on Tuesday, dropping more than 3 percent each on the New York Stock Exchange.Shares of Chinese companies listed in the US including e-commerce company Alibaba slid 2 percent and search engine Baidu declined 2.5 percent.Kate Warne, investment strategist for Edward Jones, said investors are concerned about what they are seeing, but they still believe the US and China will work out their differences."There's concern but there's not overall great worry at this stage," she told The Associated Press. "We are certainly taking the first steps toward a trade war, and the more tit-for-tat actions are taken, the harder it is to pull back."The stock market declines on Tuesday followed US President Donald Trump's late-Monday threat to put an additional $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports unless China agrees to major trade concessions."If the US loses its senses and publishes a new list, China will be forced to take comprehensive measures that are both strong in quantity and gravity and will fight back," the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. Trump's trade adviser Peter Navarro said Tuesday that tariffs against China will be "ultimately bullish" for American businesses, as the administration tries to bring "structural change"."Trump is playing a game of chicken: Who will blink first?" Ivan Feinseth, chief investment officer at Tigress Financial Partners, told The Washington Post. "Trump is betting that China understands they have more to lose in the tariff war because we import more from them than they do from us, like five times more."。
