英文原版教材《营销调研：方法论基础》第四章——调研设计ch04researchdesign

Determine Research DesignPart 2 deals with the general nature of designing research so that it addresses the appropriate questions efficiently. Chapter 4 provides an overview of the role of various research designs and also discusses two of the basic designs—the exploratory and the descriptive—at some length. Chapter 5 discusses the role of experiments in marketing research.Research designThe preceding chapters presented some of the kinds of problems that marketing research can help to solve. As you may have noticed, there can be great variation in the nature of the questions research might investigate. Some can be very specific: If we change the advertising mix, what might happen to sales? Others are much more general: Why have sales fallen below target? How do customers feel about the product? As you may have guessed, different formulations of a problem can lead to different research approaches to answer it.This chapter introduces the notion of research design and discusses the basic types and their interrelations. It also reviews two of the design types—the exploratory and the descriptive—in some detail. The next chapter deals with the nature of causal or experimental designs.Plan of ActionA research design is simply the framework or plan for a study, used as a guide in collecting and analyzing data. It is the blueprint that is followed in completing a study. It resembles the architect’s blueprint for a house. Even though it is possible to build a house without a detailed blueprint, doing so will more than likely produce a final product that is different from what was originally envisioned by the buyer. Like an architect’s blueprint for a house, it is the plan that is followed in completing a study. Even though it is possible to build a house without a detailed blueprint, doing so will more than likely produce a final product that is different from what the buyer envisioned. A certain room is too small; the traffic pattern is poor; some features really wanted are omitted; other less important details are included; and so on.It is also possible to conduct research without a detailed blueprint. The research findings, too, will probably differ widely from what the consumer or user of the research wanted. “These results are interesting, but they do not solve the basic problem,” is a common lament（双解词典P831）. Further, just as the house built without a blueprint is likely to cost more because of midstream alterations in construction, research conducted without a research design is likely to cost more than research properly executed using a research design.Thus, a research design ensures that the study (1) will be relevant to the problem and (2) will use economical procedures. It would help the student learning research methods if there were a single procedure to follow in developing the framework or if there were a single framework to be learned. Unfortunately, this is not the case.Rather, there are many research design frameworks, just as there are many unique house designs. Fortunately, though, just as house designs can be broken into basic types (for example, ranch, split-level, two-story), research designs can be classified into some basic types as well. One very useful classification is in terms of the fundamental objective of the research: exploratory, descriptive, or causal.Types of Research DesignThe major emphasis in exploratory research is on the discovery of ideas and insights. The soft-drink manufacturer faced with decreased sales might conduct an exploratory study to generate possible explanations.The descriptive research study is typically concerned with determining the frequency with which something occurs or the relationship between two variables. The descriptive study is typically guided by an initial hypothesis. An investigation of the trends in the consumption of soft drinks with respect to such characteristics as age, sex, and geographic location would be adescriptive study.A causal research design is concerned with determining cause-and-effect relationships. Causal studies typically take the form of experiments, because experiments are best suited to determine cause and effect. For instance, a soft-drink manufacturer may be interested in ascertaining the effectiveness of different advertising appeals. One way for the company to proceed would be to use different ads in different geographic areas and investigate which ad generated the highest sales. In effect, the company would perform an experiment, and if it was designed properly, the company would be in a position to conclude that one specific appeal caused the higher rate of sales.Having stated the basic general purpose of each major type of research design, three important caveats are in order. First, although the suggested classification of design types is useful for gaining insight into the research process, the distinctions are not absolute. Any given study may serve several purposes. Nevertheless, certain types of research designs are better suited to some purposes than others. The crucial tenet of research is that the design of the investigation should stem from the problem. Each of these types is appropriate to specific kinds of problems.Second, in the remainder of this chapter and in the next chapter, we shall discuss in more detail each of the design types. The emphasis will be on their basic characteristics and generally fruitful approaches. Whether or not the designs are useful in a given problem setting depends on how imaginatively they are applied. Architects can be taught basic design principles; whether they then design attractive, well-built houses depends on how they apply these principles. So it is with research. The general characteristics of each design can be taught. Whether they are productive in a given situation depends on how skillfully they are applied. There is no single best way to proceed, just as there is no single best floor plan for, say, a ranch-type house. It all depends on the specific problem to be solved. Research analysts, then, need an understanding of the basic designs so that they can modify them to suit specific purposes.Third, the three basic designs can be looked at as stages in a continuous process. Figure 4.1 shows the interrelations. Exploratory or formulative studies are often seen as the initial step. When researchers begin an investigation, it stands to reason that they lack a great deal of knowledge about the problem. Consider, for example, the following problem: “Brand X’s share of the disposable diaper market is slipping. Why?” This statement is too broad to serve as a guide for research. To narrow and refine it would logically be accomplished with exploratory research, in which the emphasis would be on finding possible explanations for the sales decrease. These tentative explanations, or hypotheses, would then serve as specific guides for descriptive or causal studies.Suppose the tentative explanation that emerged was that “Brand X is an economy-priced diaper, originally designed to compete with low-cost store-brand diapers. Families with children have more money today than when the brand was first introduced and are willing to pay more for higher quality baby products. It stands to reason that our market share would decrease.”The hypotheses that families with small children have more real income to spend and that a larger proportion of that money is going toward baby products could be examined in a descriptive study of trends in the baby products industry.Suppose that the descriptive study did support the hypotheses. The company might then wish to determine whether parents were, in fact, willing to pay more for higher quality diapers and, if sowhat features (such as better fit or greater absorbency) were most important to them. This might be accomplished partially through a test-marketing study, a causal design.Each stage in the process thus represents the investigation of a more detailed statement of the problem. Although we have suggested that the sequence would be from exploratory to descriptive to causal research, alternative sequences might occur. The “families with small children have more money to spend on baby products” hypothesis might be so generally accepted that the sequence would go from exploratory directly to causal. The potential also exists for conducting research in the reverse direction. If a hypothesis is disproved by causal research (for example, the product bombs in the test market), the analyst may then decide that another descriptive study, or even another exploratory study, is needed. Also, not every research problem will begin with an exploratory study. It depends on how specific researchers can be in formulating the problem before them. A general, vague statement leads naturally to exploratory work, whereas a specific cause-effect hypothesis lends itself to experimental work.Research Realities 4.1, for instance, lists some of the individual projects that were conducted by PepsiCo to support the conception and introduction of O’Grady’s potato chips. In this instance, the examination of the potato chip category with respect to market shares and trends, the ideation sessions, and the focus groups to help develop meaningful ways to describe a thick potato chip could all be classified as exploratory research. The diary panel that was set up to measure trial and repeat purchase behavior would be considered descriptive, and the market simulation test and the test of the commercial would be considered causal.Figure 4.1 Relationships among Research DesignsExploratory ResearchAs previously stated, the general objective in exploratory research is to gain insights and ideas. The exploratory study is particularly helpful in breaking broad, vague problem statements into smaller, more precise subproblem statements, it is hoped in the form of specific hypotheses. A hypothesis is a statement that specifies how two or more measurable variables are related. A good hypothesis carries clear implications for testing stated relationships. In the early stages of research, we usually lack sufficient understanding of the problem to formulate a specific hypothesis. Further, there are often several tentative explanations for a given marketing phenomenon. For example: Sales are off because our price is too high; our dealers or sales representatives are not doing the job they should; our advertising is weak; and so on. Exploratory research can be used to establish priorities in studying these competing explanations. The priorities would be established because a particular hypothesis discovered in the exploratory study appears to be promising. They might also arise because the exploratory study generates information about the practical possibilities of researching specific, conjectural statements.The exploratory study is also used to increase the analyst’s familiarity with the problem. This is particularly true when the analyst is new to the problem arena (for example, a marketing research consultant going to work for a company for the first time).The exploratory study may be used to clarify concepts. For instance, management is considering a change in service policy that will, it is hoped, result in improved dealer satisfaction. An exploratory study could be used to clarify the notion of dealer satisfaction and to develop a method by which dealer satisfaction could appropriately be measured.When Congress discusses revising the tax code in order to make it “more fair’(so as to increase taxpayer compliance), a problem that often surfaces is how to determine what fairness in the tax code means. Is it tax enforcement that bothers people? Tax avoidance by other people? The way tax laws are written? Tax rates? That people believe their tax dollars are being poorly spent? Exploratory research would play a particularly important role in clarifying a concept such as this.Research Realities 4.1Research Supporting the Development and Introduction of O’Grady’s Potato Chips As a first step, Frito-Lay examined whether or not a consumer need existed for a different type of potato chip. An inventory was made of the potato chip product category. There were relatively few options available. Potato chips on the market were either flat or ridged, unflavored or cheese flavor or flavored with sour cream and onion. Yet Frito-Lay knew that consumers seek variety and often differentiate between products on a textural basis.At the corporate level, a number of hurdle criteria were set: a $100-million-plus business, it had to add incremental volume, it had to have broad national appeal, and it had to be a unique, not easily replicated product.To start with, new product ideas were developed through a number of sources. Ideation sessions were conducted with scientists, the marketing department, home economists, and consumers. Recipe books were collected, and the industry’s packaged potato snack products were purchased from stores and studied for differentiation opportunities, for needs that weren’t being filled.Four distinct product ideas resulted from this exercise: a “better Pringles,”which was dropped on judgment due to Pringles’ lack of success; a “potato Frito,” a thicker, processed chip that later became “crunch chips”; a super-crispy chip that became Ta-Tos; and a bite-sized, latticed chip—a small, thin, fragile O’Grady’s forerunner. The ideas were exposed to consumers forerunner. The ideas were exposed to consumers through product evaluation groups, which provided direction on product refinement and positioning issues. The results suggested that development should continue on all three, although the crunch chips and the Ta-Tos were the most well received at this stage. The O’Grady’s product was deemphasized because consumers saw it as too light and thin.Even though the Ta-Tos and crunch chips were well received and eventually went to test market, they did not fit with the business objective of being a new potato chip. Despite its consumer rejection, the lattice chip, which was to become O’Grady’s, offered the most differentiable potato chip. O’Grady’s was then taken from thin and crispy to the other end of the spectrum—thicker, heavier, and crunchier. The lattice cut gave it a unique appearance. The thickness gave it a unique texture (crunchiness) and taste (more potato taste). Home-use tests confirmed that the shift to thickness was positive, and focus group research was conducted to help develop meaningful, motivating ways of describing a thick potato chip. Crunchy, hearty, and more potato taste seemed to be most appealing.From a market simulation test. The interest-generating ability of the concept and the fit of the product with the concept, as well as the trial and repeat and volume potential of the brand, weredetermined. Only two sizes and a plain flavor were tested. The results were positive, but they indicated that the product wouldn ’t surpass the corporate hurdle rate. So, an additional au gratin cheese flavor was developed and was selected using further home-use tests. At the same time, focus group copy development research led Frito-Lay to emphasize or embody simplicity, small-town values, implied wholesomeness, and heartiness. This commercial, opening with a potato plant, was found to be positively intrusive and memorable and to elicit positive consumer reactions with appropriate images being conveyed.While in test market, a full range of research was conducted to monitor O ’Grady ’s performance. An awareness and trial study was conducted. A diary panel was set up to measure trial, repeat, and depth of repeat. An image study was set up to make sure the desired positioning was conveyed. Finally, distribution checks helped monitor distribution and out-of-stock levels. These test market data allowed for fine-tuning of the national program and also provided standards against which to measure O ’Grady ’s performance during expansion.In sum, an exploratory study is used for any or all of the following purposes:Formulating a problem for more precise investigation or for developing hypothesesEstablishing priorities for further researchGathering information about the practical problems of carrying out research on particular conjectural statementsIncreasing the analyst ’s familiarity with the problemClarifying conceptsIn general, exploratory research is appropriate to any problem about which little is known. Exploratory research then becomes the foundation for a good study.Because knowledge is lacking when an inquiry is begun, exploratory studies are characterized by flexibility with respect to the methods used for gaining insight and developing hypotheses. Exploratory studies rarely use detailed questionnaires or involve probability sampling plans. Rather, investigators frequently change the research procedure as the vaguely defined initial problem is transformed into one with more precise meaning. Investigators follow where their noses lead them in an exploratory study. Ingenuity, judgment, and good luck inevitably play a part in leading to the one or two key hypotheses that, it is hoped, will account for the phenomenon.Notwithstanding the flexibility, research experience has demonstrated that literature surveys, experience surveys, focus groups, and the analysis of selected cases are particularly productive in exploratory research. See Figure 4.2.Figure 4.2 Types of Exploratory StudiesLiterature SearchOne of the quickest and cheapest ways to discover hypotheses is in the work of others, Exploratory Studies Literature SearchExperience SurveyFocus GroupsAnalysis of Selectedthrough a literature search. The search may involve conceptual literature, trade literature, or, quite often, published statistics.The literature that is searched depends, naturally, on the problem being addressed. Miller Business Systems Inc. of Dallas, for example, routinely monitors trade literature to keep track of its competitors. The information on each competitor is entered into the “competitor profiles” that it keeps in its database. The company regularly scans these profiles for insights on what the competition might be doing. One such scan indicated that one competitor had hired nine furniture salesmen in a 10-day period. This was a tip-off to a probable push by the competitor in the office furniture market. With this early notice. Miller was able to schedule its salespeople to make extra calls on their accounts, thereby blunting the competitor’s sales drive.Sometimes conceptual literature is more valuable than trade literature. For example, a search of conceptual literature would be warranted for a firm whose management believes that its field sales force is largely dissatisfied. The search would include works on psychology, sociology, and personnel, in addition to marketing journals. The focus would be on the factors determining employee satisfaction-dissatisfaction. The analyst would keep a keen eye out for those factors also found in the company’s environment. The question of how to measure an employee’s satisfaction would also be researched at the same time.Suppose the problem is one that typically triggers much marketing research: ‘Sales are off. Why?” Exploratory insights into this problem could easily and cheaply be gained by analyzing published data and trade literature. Such an analysis would quickly indicate whether the problem was an industry problem or a firm problem. Very different research is in order if the firm’s sales are down but (1) the company’s market share is up, because industry sales are down farther; (2) the company’s market share has remained stable; or (3) the company’s market share has declined. The last situation would trigger an investigation of the firm’s marketing-mix variables, whereas the first condition would suggest an analysis to determine why industry sales are off. The great danger in omitting exploratory research is obvious from the preceding example; without the analysis of secondary data as a guide, there is a great danger o researching the wrong “why.”A company’s own internal data should be included in the literature examined in exploratory research, as Mosinee Paper Company found to its pleasant surprise. The company was contemplating dropping one of its products because of its dismal sales performance. Before doing so, though, the company tallied sales of the product by salesperson and found that only a single salesperson was selling that specific grade of industrial paper. On further investigation. Mosinee discovered how the buyers were using the paper—an application that had been known only to the one salesman and his customers. This information enabled management to educate its other salesmen as to the potential market for the paper and sales rose substantially.It is important to remember that in a literature search, as in any exploratory research, the major emphasis is on the discovery of ideas and tentative explanations of the phenomenon and not on demonstrating which explanation is the explanation. The demonstration is better left to descriptive and causal research. Thus, the analyst must be alert to the hypotheses that can be derived from available material, both published material and the company’s internal records.Experience SurveyThe experience survey, sometimes called the key informant survey, attempts to tap the knowledge and experience of those familiar with the general subject being investigated. For example, a San Francisco builder focused on architects and designers when trying to get a handleon its competitors. The company asked these people to describe the traits of builders that tended to turn off buyers of expensive homes. Some of the answers included bad manners, workers who tracked dirt across carpets, and beat-up construction trucks, which buyers objected to having parked in their driveways. The company used these insights for a major repositioning of its business to the Bay Area’s upper crust. The company bought a new truck, had its estimators don jackets and ties, and made sure its work crews were impeccably polite. For example, the crews began rolling protective runners over carpets before they set foot in clients’ homes. In less than two years, the company’s annual revenue more than quintupled.In studies concerned with the marketing of a product, anyone who has any association with the marketing effort is a potential source of information. This would include the top executives of the company, sales manager, product manager, and sales representatives. It would also include wholesalers and retailers who handle the product as well as consumers who use the product. It might even include individuals who are not part of the chain of distribution but who might, nevertheless, possess some insight into the phenomenon. For example, a publisher of children’s books investigating a sales decrease gained valuable insights by talking with librarians and schoolteachers. These discussions indicated that an increased use of library facilities, both public and school, coincided with the product’s sales decline. These increases were, in turn, attributed to a very sizable increase in library holdings of children’s books resulting from federal legislation that provided money for this purpose. Similarly, when designing the Louisville, a medium-duty conventional truck intended for beverage distribution, among other things, Ford Motor sought market information from fleet owners, mechanics, and drivers.Usually, a great many people know something about the general subject of any given problem. However, not all of them should be contacted.Research economy dictates that the respondents in an experience survey be carefully selected. The aim of the experience survey is to obtain insight into the relationships between variables rather than to get an accurate picture of current practices or a simple consensus as to best practices. One is looking for provocative ideas and useful insights, not for the statistics of the profession. Thus the respondents must be chosen because of the likelihood that they will offer the contributions sought. In other words, a selected sample of people working in the area is called for.One does not, therefore, use a probability sample in an experience survey. It is a waste of time to interview those who have little competence or little relevant experience. It is also a waste of time to interview those who cannot articulate their experience and knowledge. It is important, though, to include people with differing points of view. The following were all interviewed with varying degrees of success when the children’s books sales decline was being researched: company executives, key people in the product group, sales representatives, managers of retail outlets in which the books were sold, teachers, and librarians.The interviews were all unstructured and informal. The emphasis in each interview among those immediately concerned with the distribution of the product was “How do you explain the sales decrease? In your opinion, what is needed to reverse the downward slide?” Most of the time in each interview was then devoted to exploring in detail the various rationales and proposed solutions. A number of sometimes conflicting hypotheses emerged. This provided the researchers with an opportunity to “bounce” some of the hypotheses off groups with differing vantage points and, in the process, get a feel for which of the hypotheses would be most fruitful to research. The interviews with librarians and teachers were divorced from the immediate problem. Here theemphasis was on discovering changes in children’s reading habits.The respondents were given a great deal of freedom is choosing the factors to be discussed. This is consistent with the notion that the emphasis in exploratory research is on developing tentative explanations and not on demonstrating the viability of a given explanation.Focus GroupsFocus groups are another useful method for gathering ideas and insights. In a focus group, a small number of individuals are brought together in a room to sit and talk about some topic of interest to the focus group sponsor. The discussion is directed by a moderator. The moderator attempts to follow a rough outline of the issues under consideration, while at the same time making sure that the comments made by each person present are included in the group’s discussion. Each individual is thereby exposed to the ideas of the others and submits his or her ideas to the group for consideration.Focus groups are one of the more frequently used techniques in marketing research; they have proved to be productive for a variety of purposes, including the following:1.To generate hypotheses that can be further tested quantitatively2.To generate information helpful in structuring consumer questionnaires3.To provide overall background information on a product category4.To secure impressions on new product conceptsFor example, in designing its Z3 roadster, BMW conducted focus groups in Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. The American influence is visible in the dual cupholders, the coinholder, and the third brake light.Research Realities 4.2 discusses the insights Harley-Davidson gleaned from focus groups.Although focus groups do vary in size, most consist of eight to twelve members. Smaller groups are too easily dominated by one or two members; with larger groups, frustration and boredom can set in, as individuals have to wait their turn to respond or get involved. Respondents are generally selected so that the groups are relatively homogeneous, minimizing both conflicts among group members on issues not relevant to the study objectives and differences in perceptions, experiences, and verbal skills. Differences that are too great with respect to any of these characteristics can intimidate some of the group participants and stifle discussion.Research Realities 4.2Experience of Harley-Davidson with Focus Groups After making a remarkable comeback in the 1980s, motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson had buyers on two-year-long waiting lists all over the country. But that success placed the company in a familiar quandary: Should Harley expand and risk a market downturn, or should it stay the course, content with its good position in the industry?“To invest or not to invest, that was the question,” said Frank Cimermancic, Harley’s director of business planning. “Dealers were begging us to build more motorcycles,”he said. “But you have to understand our history. One of the things that caused past problems was a lack of quality, and that was the result of a too-rapid expansion. We did not want to relive that situation.”The company’s dilemma was complicated by the fact that the market for heavyweight bikes was shrinking. “We were doing fine, but look at the market,”Cimermancic said. “Maybe, we thought, we could reverse these trends and become an industry leader, something we hadn’t been for a long time.”A new kind of customer seemed to hold the keys to market growth. White-collar motorcycle。