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21.full     农产品出口外文翻译
21.full     农产品出口外文翻译

Policy Reforms Affecting Agricultural Incentives:Much Achieved,Much Still

Needed

Kym Anderson

For decades,earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro-urban bias in own-country policies,as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies.Both sets of policies reduce national and global economic welfare and inhibit agricultural trade and economic growth.They almost certainly add to inequality and poverty in developing countries, since three-quarters of the world’s billion poorest people depend on farming for their live-lihood.During the past two decades,however,numerous developing country governments have reduced their sectoral and trade policy distortions,while some high-income countries also have begun reducing market-distorting aspects of their farm policies.The author surveys the changing extent of policy distortions to prices faced by developing-country farmers over the past half century,and provides a summary of new empirical estimates from a global economy-wide model that yield estimates of how much could be gained by removing the interventions remaining as of2004.The author concludes by pointing to the scope and prospects for further pro-poor policy reform in both developing and high-income countries.JEL codes:F13,F14,Q17,Q18

For many decades agricultural protection and subsidies in high-income(and some middle-income)countries have been depressing international prices of farm products,which lowers the earnings of farmers and associated rural businesses in developing countries(Johnson1991;Tyers and Anderson1992).Those policies almost certainly add to inequality and poverty,since three-quarters of the world’s poorest people depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their main income (World Bank2007).Currently less than15million relatively wealthy farmers in developed countries,with an average of almost80hectares per worker,are being The World Bank Research Observer

#The Author2009.Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK.All rights reserved.For permissions,please e-mail:journals.permissions@https://www.doczj.com/doc/f69893681.html, doi;10.1093/wbro/lkp014Advance Access publication November9,200925:21–55

helped at the expense of not only consumers,taxpayers,and producers of other tradables in those rich countries but also the majority of the1.3billion relatively impoverished farmers and their large families in developing countries who,on average,have to earn a living from just2.5hectares per worker.

But in addition to this external policy in?uence on rural poverty,the govern-ments of many developing countries have directly taxed their farmers over the past half-century.A well-known and often-cited example is the taxing of exports of plantation crops in post-colonial Africa(Bates1981).Furthermore,many developing countries in the1960s and1970s chose also to pursue an import-substituting industrialization strategy,predominantly by restricting imports of manufactures.As Krueger,Schiff,and Valde′s(1988,1991)showed in their seminal multi-country study,this indirectly taxed other tradable sectors in those developing economies,including agriculture.

Thus the price incentives facing farmers in many developing countries have been depressed by both own-country and other countries’farm,food,and trade policies.I will survey the extent to which government policies at home and abroad have distorted prices faced by developing-country farmers over the past half-century.I begin with a brief examination of the methodology required to measure the extent of own-country distortions to farmer incentives.I then survey analyses of the effects of those agricultural and trade policies on incentives over time,focusing on the worsening of that situation between the1950s and early 1980s and on the progress that has been made over the25years since then.

Notwithstanding recent reforms,many price distortions remain in the agricul-tural sector of both developing and high-income countries.I provide a summary of new empirical estimates from a global economy-wide model that indicate how much could be gained by removing the interventions remaining as of2004.

I conclude by pointing to the scope and prospects for further pro-poor policy reform in both developing and high-income countries.

National Distortions to Incentives:Basic Theory1

Bhagwati(1971)and Corden(1997)de?ne the concept of a market policy distor-tion as something that governments impose to create a gap between the marginal social return to a seller and the marginal social cost to a buyer in a transaction. Such a distortion creates an economic cost to society which can be estimated using welfare-measuring techniques such as those pioneered by Harberger (1971).As Harberger notes,this focus allows a great simpli?cation in evaluating the marginal costs of a set of distortions:changes in economic costs can be evalu-ated by taking into account the changes in volumes directly affected by such dis-tortions,ignoring all other changes in prices.In the absence of divergences such 22The W orld Bank Research Observer,vol.25,no.1(February2010)

as externalities,the measure of a distortion is the gap between the price paid and the price received,irrespective of whether the level of these prices is affected by the distortion.2

Importantly,the total effect of distortions on the agricultural sector will depend not just on the size of the direct agricultural policy measures,but also on the magnitude of distortions generated by direct policy measures altering incentives in non-agricultural sectors.It is relative prices,and hence relative rates of government assistance,that affect producers’incentives.In a two-sector model an import tax has the same effect on the export sector as an export tax: the Lerner(1936)Symmetry Theorem.This carries over to a model that has many sectors,and is unaffected if there is imperfect competition domestically or internationally or if some of those sectors produce only non-tradables (Vousden1990,pp.46–7).The Symmetry Theorem is therefore also relevant for considering distortions within the agricultural sector.In particular,if import-competing farm industries are protected,for example via import tariffs,this has similar effects on incentives to produce exportables as does an explicit tax on agricultural exports;and if both measures are in place,this is a double imposition on farm exporters.

Direct Agricultural Distortions

Consider a small,open,perfectly competitive national economy with many ?rms producing a homogeneous farm product with just primary factors.In the absence of externalities,processing,producer-to-consumer wholesale plus retail marketing margins,exchange rate distortions,and domestic and international trading costs,that country would maximize national economic welfare by allow-ing the domestic producer and consumer prices of that product to both equal E times P,where E is the domestic currency price of foreign exchange and P is the foreign currency price of this identical product in the international market.That is,any government-imposed diversion from those two equalities,in the absence of any market failures or externalities,would be welfare-reducing for that small economy.

Price-distorting Trade Measures at the National Border.The most common distortion is an ad valorem tax on competing imports(usually called a tariff),t m.Such a tariff on imports is the equivalent of a production subsidy and a consumption tax, both at rate t m.If that tariff on the imported primary agricultural product is the only distortion,its effect on producer incentives can be measured as the nominal rate of assistance(NRA)to farm output conferred by border price support(NRA BS), which is the unit value of production at the distorted price,less its value at the Anderson23

undistorted free market price,expressed as a fraction of the undistorted price:3

NRA BS?E?Pe1tt mTàE?P

E?P

?t me1T

The effect of that import tariff on consumer incentives in this simple economy is to generate a consumer tax equivalent(CTE)on the agricultural product for?nal consumers:

CTE?t me2TThe effects of an import subsidy are identical to those in equations(1)and(2)for an import tax,but t m in that case would have a negative value.

Governments sometimes also intervene with an export subsidy s x(or an export tax,in which case s x would be negative).If that were the only intervention,then:

NRA BS?CTE?s xe3T

Domestic Producer and Consumer Price-distorting Measures.Some governments provide a direct production subsidy for farmers,s f(or production tax,in which case s f is negative,including via informal taxes in kind by local and provincial governments).In that case,if only this distortion is present,the effect on producer incentives can be measured as the nominal rate of assistance to farm output con-ferred by domestic price support(NRA DS),which is as above except s f replaces t m or s x,but the CTE in that case is zero.Similarly,if the government just imposes a consumption tax c c on this product(or consumption subsidy,in which case c c is negative),the CTE is as above except c c replaces t m or s x,but the NRA DS in that case is zero.

The combination of domestic measures and border price support provides the following total rate of assistance to output,NRA o,and total consumer tax equival-ent,CTE:

NRA o?NRA BStNRA DSe4T

CTE?NRA BStc te5TWhat if the Exchange Rate System Is also Distorting Prices?Should a multi-tier foreign exchange rate regime be in place,then another policy-induced price wedge exists.A simple two-tier exchange rate system creates a gap between the price received by all exporters and the price paid by all importers for foreign cur-rency,changing both the exchange rate received by exporters and that paid by importers from the equilibrium rate E that would prevail without this distortion in the domestic market for foreign currency(Bhagwati1978).This requires

24The W orld Bank Research Observer,vol.25,no.1(February2010)

controls by the government on current account transfers.In the past it was common for exporters to be required to surrender their foreign currency earnings to the central bank for exchange to local currency at a low of?cial rate,which is equivalent to a tax on exports to the extent that the of?cial rate is below what the exchange rate would be in a market without government intervention.That implicit tax on exporters reduces their incentive to export and hence the supply of foreign currency?owing into the country.With less foreign currency,demanders are willing to bid up its purchase price,providing a potential rent for the govern-ment which can be realized by auctioning off the limited supply of foreign cur-rency extracted from exporters,or by creating a legal secondary market.Either mechanism will create a gap between the of?cial and parallel rates(Dervis,de Melo and Robinson1981).

If the government chooses to allocate the limited foreign currency to different groups of importers at different rates,that is called a multiple exchange rate system.Some lucky importers may even be able to purchase it at the low of?cial rate.The more that is allocated and sold to demanders whose marginal valuation is below the equilibrium rate,the greater the unsatis?ed excess demand and hence the stronger the incentive for an illegal or“black”market to form,and for less-unscrupulous exporters to lobby the government to legalize the secondary market for foreign exchange and to allow exporters to retain some fraction of their exchange rate earnings for sale in the secondary market.Such a right given to exporters to retain and sell a portion of foreign exchange receipts would increase their incentives to export,and thereby reduce the shortage of foreign exchange and hence the secondary market exchange rate(Tarr1990;Martin 1993).

For present purposes,what matters is that,where a country has distortions in its domestic market for foreign currency,the exchange rate relevant for calculat-ing the NRA o or the CTE for a particular tradable product depends,in the case of a dual exchange rate system,on whether the product is an importable or an exportable one,while in the case of multiple exchange rates it depends on the speci?c rate applying to that product each year.The precise way in which that can be handled is detailed in Anderson and others(2008).

What if Farm Production Involves not just Primary Factors but also Intermediate Inputs?Where intermediate inputs are used in farm production,any taxes or sub-sidies on their production,consumption,or trade would alter farm value added and thereby also affect farmer incentives.Sometimes a government will have directly offsetting measures in place,such as a domestic subsidy for fertilizer use by farmers but also a tariff on fertilizer imports.In other situations there will be farm input subsidies but an export tax on the?nal product.In principle all these items could be brought together to calculate an effective rate of direct assistance Anderson25

to farm value added.The nominal rate of direct assistance to farm output,NRA o, is a component of that,as is the sum of the nominal rates of direct assistance to all farm inputs,call it NRA i.Where there are signi?cant distortions to input costs, their ad valorem equivalent can be accounted for by summing each input’s NRA times its input–output coef?cient to obtain the combined NRA i,and adding that to the farm industry’s nominal rate of direct assistance to farm output,NRA o,to get the total nominal rate of assistance to farm production,NRA.

What about Post-farmgate Costs?If a state trading corporation is charging exces-sively for its marketing services and thereby lowering the farm-gate price of a product,for example as a way of raising government revenue in place of an expli-cit tax,the extent of that excess is treated as if it were an explicit tax.

Some farm products,including some that are not internationally traded,are inputs into a processing industry that may also be subject to government inter-ventions.In that case the effect of those interventions on the price received by farmers for the primary product also needs to be taken into account.

The Mean and Variance of Agricultural NRAs.When it comes to averaging across countries,each polity is an observation of interest,so a simple average is mean-ingful for the purpose of political economy analysis.But if one wants a sense of how distorted agriculture is in a group of countries,a weighted average is needed. The weighted average NRA for covered primary agriculture can be generated by multiplying each primary industry’s share of production(valued at the farm-gate equivalent undistorted prices)by its corresponding NRA and adding across indus-tries.The overall sectoral rate,NRAag,also could include actual or assumed infor-mation for the non-covered commodities and,where it exists,the aggregate value of non-product-speci?c assistance to agriculture.A weighted average can be gen-erated also for just the tradables part of agriculture—including those industries producing products such as milk and sugar that require only light processing before they can be traded—by assuming that its share of non-product-speci?c assistance equals its weight in the total.Call that NRAag t.

In addition to the mean,it is important to provide also a measure of the dis-persion or variability of the NRA estimates across the covered products.The cost of government policy distortions to incentives in terms of resource misallocation tends to increase as the degree of substitution in production increases(Lloyd 1974).In the case of agriculture which involves the use of farm land that is sector-speci?c but transferable among farm activities,the greater the variation of NRAs across industries within the sector,the higher will be the welfare cost of those market interventions.A simple indicator of dispersion is the standard devi-ation around the weighted mean of industry NRAs within the agricultural sector. 26The W orld Bank Research Observer,vol.25,no.1(February2010)

Trade Bias in Agricultural Assistance.A trade bias index is also needed to indicate the changing extent to which a country’s policy regime has an anti-trade bias within the agricultural sector.This is important because,as mentioned above,the Lerner(1936)Symmetry Theorem demonstrates that a tariff assisting import-competing farm industries has the same effect on farmers’incentives as if there were a tax on agricultural exports;and,if both measures are in place,this is a double imposition on farm exporters.The higher is the nominal rate of assistance to import-competing agricultural production(NRAag m)relative to that for expor-table farm activities(NRAag x),the more incentive producers in that subsector will have to bid for mobile resources that would otherwise have been employed in export agriculture,other things being equal.

Indirect Agricultural Assistance or Taxation via Non-agricultural Distortions

In addition to direct assistance to,or taxation of,farmers,the Lerner(1936) Symmetry Theorem further demonstrates that their incentives are also affected indirectly by government assistance to non-agricultural production in the national economy.The higher is the nominal rate of assistance to non-agricul-tural tradables production(NRAnonag t),the more incentive producers in other tradable sectors will have to bid up the value of mobile resources that would otherwise have been employed in agriculture,other things being equal.If NRAag t is below NRAnonag t,one might expect there to be fewer resources in agriculture than there would be under free market conditions in the country,notwithstand-ing any positive direct assistance to farmers,and conversely.

One way to capture this is to calculate a Relative Rate of Assistance,RRA, de?ned as:

RRA?

1tNRAag t

1tNRAnonag t

à1

e6T

Since an NRA cannot be less than21if producers are to earn anything,neither can an RRA.This measure is a useful indicator for providing international comparisons over time of the extent to which a country’s policy regime has an anti-or pro-agricultural bias.

National Distortions to Farmer Incentives:The Evolution

of Policies

Before turning to the contemporary(post-World W ar II)situation,it would be insightful to examine brie?y the long history of government intervention in

Anderson27

international markets for farm products by today’s advanced economies,since similar political economy forces may in?uence policy choices in later-developing countries.Attention then turns to the price-distorting policies of developing countries since the1950s as they became independent from their colonial masters. The Long History in High-income Countries,Brie?y

Britain was the?rst country to have an industrial revolution.Prior to that revolu-tion—from the late1100s to the1660s—Britain used export taxes and licenses to prevent domestic food prices from rising excessively.But during1660–90a series of Acts gradually raised food import duties(making imports prohibitive under most circumstances)and reduced export restrictions on grain.These pro-visions were made even more protective of British farmers by the Corn Laws of 1815.True,the famous repeal of the Corn Laws in the mid-1840s heralded a period of relatively unrestricted food trade for Britain,4but then agricultural pro-tection returned in the1930s and steadily increased over the next?ve decades.

Similar tendencies have been observed in many other West European countries, although on the Continent the period of free trade in the19th century was con-siderably shorter,and agricultural protection levels during the past150years have been somewhat higher on average than in Britain.Kindleberger(1975) describes how the19th-century free-trade movements in Europe re?ected the national economic,political,and sociological conditions of the time.Agricultural trade reform was less dif?cult for countries such as Britain with overseas terri-tories that could provide the metropolis with a ready supply of farm products.The fall in the price of grain imports from America in the1870s and1880s provided a challenge for all,however.Denmark coped well by moving more into livestock production to take advantage of cheaper grain.Italians coped by sending many of their relatives to the New World.Farmers in France and Germany successfully sought protection from imports,however,and so began the post-Industrial Revolution growth of agricultural protectionism in densely populated countries. Meanwhile,tariffs on West European imports of manufactures were progressively reduced after the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade(GATT)came into force in the late1940s,thereby adding to the encouragement of agricultural relative to manufacturing production(Lindert1991;Findlay and O’Rourke2007).

Japan provides an even more striking example of the tendency to switch from taxing to increasingly assisting agriculture relative to other industries.Its industri-alization began later than in Europe,after the opening up of the economy follow-ing the Meiji Restoration in1868.By1900Japan had switched from being a small net exporter of food to becoming increasingly dependent on imports of rice (its main staple food and responsible for more than half the value of domestic food production).This was followed by calls from farmers and their supporters for 28The W orld Bank Research Observer,vol.25,no.1(February2010)

rice import controls.Their calls were matched by equally vigorous calls from manufacturing and commercial groups for unrestricted food trade,since the price of rice at that time was a major determinant of real wages in the non-farm sector. The heated debates were not unlike those that led to the repeal of the Corn Laws in Britain six decades earlier.In Japan,however,the forces of protection tri-umphed,and a tariff was imposed on rice imports from1904.That tariff then gradually rose over time,raising the domestic price of rice to more than 30percent above the import price during World War I.Even when there were food riots because of shortages and high rice prices just after that war,the Japanese government’s response was not to reduce protection but instead to extend it to its colonies and to shift from a national to an imperial policy of rice self-suf?ciency.That involved accelerated investments in agricultural development in the colonies of Korea and Taiwan behind an ever-higher external tariff wall that by the latter1930s had driven imperial rice prices to more than60percent above those in international markets(Anderson and Tyers1992).After the Paci?c War ended and Japan lost its colonies,its agricultural protection growth resumed and spread from rice to an ever-wider range of farm products.

The other high-income countries were settled by Europeans relatively recently and are far less-densely populated.They therefore have had a strong comparative advantage in farm products for most of their history following Caucasian settle-ment,and so have felt less need to protect their farmers than Europe or north-east Asia.Indeed Australia and New Zealand until the late20th century tended—like developing countries—to adopt policies that discriminated against their farmers(Anderson,Lloyd and MacLaren2007).

Developing Countries since the1950s

In the Republic of Korea and Taiwan,China in the1950s,as in many newly independent developing countries,initially adopted an import-substituting indus-trialization strategy which harmed agriculture.But in those two economies that policy was replaced in the early1960s with a more neutral trade policy that resulted in very rapid export-oriented industrialization.That development strategy in those densely populated economies imposed competitive pressure on the farm sector which,just as in Japan in earlier decades,prompted farmers to lobby(suc-cessfully,as it happened)for ever-higher levels of protection from import protec-tion(Anderson and Hayami1986,ch.2).

Many less-advanced and less-rapidly growing developing countries not only adopted import-substituting industrialization strategies in the late1950s or early 1960s(Little,Scitovsky,and Scott1970;Balassa and Associates1971)but also imposed direct taxes on their exports of farm products.The latter practice was especially rife in Africa(Bates1981).It was common in the1950s and1960s, Anderson29

and in some cases even in the1970s and1980s,also to use dual or multiple exchange rates so as to tax indirectly both exporters and importers(Bhagwati 1978;Krueger1978).This added to the anti-trade bias of developing countries’trade policies.That policy history is now well known,and has been documented extensively in previous surveys(for example Krueger1984).

Less well-known is the extent to which many emerging economies have belatedly followed the examples of Korea and Taiwan in abandoning import-substitution and opening their economies.Some(for example Chile)started in the 1970s,while others(for example India)did not do so in a sustained way until the 1990s.Some have adopted a very gradual pace of reform,with occasional rever-sals,while others have moved rapidly to open markets.Some have reduced export taxes but simultaneously raised import barriers.And some have adopted the rheto-ric of reform but in practice have done little to free up their economies.To get a clear sense of the overall impact of these reform attempts,there is no substitute for empirical analysis that quanti?es over time the types of indicators raised in the theory section above.Building on recent work by the International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI)and the OECD(Orden and others2007;OECD2007),a World Bank project recently undertook such analysis,to which we now turn. National Distortions to Farmer Incentives:Empirical Estimates

post-World War II

After post-World W ar II reconstruction,Japan continued to raise its agricultural pro-tection,just as had been happening in Western Europe,but to even higher levels. Domestic prices exceeded international market prices for grains and livestock pro-ducts in both Japan and the European Community in the1950s,but by less than40 percent.By the early1980s the difference was more than80percent for Japan but was still around40percent for the EC—and was still close to zero for the agricul-tural-exporting rich countries of Australasia and North America(Anderson and Hayami1986,table2.5).Virtually all of that assistance to Japanese and European farmers in that period was due to restrictions on imports of farm products.

Since1986the OECD(2008)has been computing annual producer and consu-mer support estimates by member countries.For the OECD member countries as a whole,producer support rose between1986–88and2005–07in US dollar terms (from$239to$263billion)but has come down when expressed as a share of support-inclusive returns to farmers(from37to26percent).Because of some switching of support instruments,including switching to measures that are based on non-current production or on long-term resource retirement,the share of that assistance provided via market price support measures has fallen from three-quar-ters to one-half.When the PSE payment is expressed as a percentage of undistorted

30The W orld Bank Research Observer,vol.25,no.1(February2010)

prices to make it an NRA,the NRA fall is from59to35percent between1986–88and2005–07(OECD2008).This indicator suggests high-income country pol-icies have become considerably less trade–distorting,at least in proportional terms,even though farmer support in high-income countries has continued to grow in dollar terms because of growth in the value of their farm output.

As for developing countries outside north-east Asia,the main comprehensive set of pertinent estimates over time is for the period just prior to when reforms became widespread.They were generated as part of a major study of18developing countries from the1960s to the mid-1980s by Krueger,Schiff,and Valde′s(1988, 1991).That study by the World Bank,whose estimates are summarized in Schiff and Valde′s(1992),shows that the depression of incentives facing farmers has been due only partly to various forms of agricultural price and trade policies, including subsidies to food imports.Much more important in many cases have been those developing countries’non-agricultural policies that hurt their farmers indirectly.The two key ones have been manufacturing protectionism(which attracts resources from agriculture to the industrial sector)and overvalued exchange rates(which attract resources to sectors producing non-tradables,such as services).That indirect impact was negative for all four groups of countries shown in table1,whereas the impact of direct agricultural policies was negative only for the two lowest-income country groups.In addition to the total assistance being more negative the poorer the country group,table1also reveals that it is lower for producers of exportables than for the subsector focused on import-com-peting farm products,suggesting a strong anti-trade bias for the sector as a whole.

Since there were no comprehensive multiregion studies of the Krueger,Schiff, and Valde′s type for developing countries that monitored progress over the sub-sequent reform period,5a new study was recently launched by the World Bank aimed at?lling this lacuna.The new study covers not only41developing countries but also14European transition economies as well as20high-income countries.The results from that study6do indeed reveal that there has been a substantial reduction in distortions to agricultural incentives in developing countries over the past two to three decades.They also reveal that progress has not been uniform across countries and regions,and that—contrary to some earlier claims(for example from Jensen,Robinson,and Tarp2002)—the reform process is far from complete.In particular,many countries still have a wide dis-persion in NRAs for different farm industries and in particular have a strong anti-trade bias in the structure of assistance within their agricultural sector;and some countries have“overshot”in the sense that they have moved from having an average rate of assistance to farmers that was negative to one that is positive, rather than stopping at the welfare-maximizing rate of zero.Moreover,the var-iance in rates of assistance across commodities within each country,and in aggre-gate rates across countries,remains substantial;and the beggar-thy-neighbor Anderson31

practice of insulating domestic markets from international food price ?uctuations continues,thereby exacerbating that volatility .

The global summary of those new results is provided in ?gure 1.It reveals that the nominal rate of assistance (NRA)to farmers in high-income countries rose steadily over the post-World War II period through to the end of the 1980s,apart from a small dip when international food prices spiked around 1973–74.After peaking at more than 50percent in the mid-1980s,the average NRA for high-income countries has fallen a little,depending on the extent to which one believes some new farm programs are “decoupled”in the sense of no longer in?uencing production decisions.For developing countries,too,the average NRA for agricul-ture has been rising,but from a level of around 225percent during the period from the mid-1950s to the early 1980s to a level of nearly 10percent in the ?rst half of the present decade.Thus the global gross subsidy equivalent of those rates of assistance have risen very substantially in constant (2000)US dollar terms,from close to zero up to the mid-1970s to more than $200billion per year at the farm gate since the mid-1990s (?gure 2).

When expressed on a per farmer basis,the gross subsidy equivalent (GSE)varies enormously between high-income and developing countries.In 1980–84the GSE in high-income countries was already around $8,000and by 2000–04it had risen to $10,000on average (and $25,000in Norway ,Switzerland,and Japan),or $13,500when “decoupled”payments are included.By contrast,the GSE in developing economies was –$140per farmer in the ?rst half of the 1980s,which is a non-trivial tax when one recalls that at that time the majority Table 1.Direct and Indirect Nominal Rates of Assistance to Farmers in 18Developing Countries,1960to mid-1980s (percent)

Country group

Direct

assistance Indirect assistance Total assistance a Assistance to agric.export subsector a Assistance to agric.import-competing subsector a Very low income

223229252249211Low income

212224236240213Lower middle

income

021*********Upper middle

income

24214102115Unweighted

sample average

2822223023529a Total assistance is the weighted average of assistance to the agricultural subsectors producing exportables,importables,and non-tradables (the latter not shown above).

Source :Anderson (forthcoming a),summarized from estimates reported in Schiff and Valde

′s (1992,tables 2.1and 2.2).

32The W orld Bank Research Observer ,vol.25,no.1(February 2010)

Figure1.Nominal Rates of Assistance to Agriculture in High-income and European Transition Economies and in Developing Countries,1955to2004(percent,weighted averages,with“decoupled”payments included in the dashed higher income countries line)

Source:Anderson(2009).

Figure2.Gross Subsidy Equivalent of NRAs in High-income and European Transition Economies and in Developing Countries,1960to2007(constant2000US$billion)

Source:Anderson(2009).

Anderson33

of these people’s households were surviving on less than$1a day per capita.By 2000–04they received on average around$50per farmer(Anderson2009,ch.

1).While this represents a major improvement,it is less than1percent of the support received by the average farmer in high-income countries.

The developing economies of Asia—including Korea and Taiwan,which were both very poor at the start of the period—have experienced the fastest transition from negative to positive agricultural https://www.doczj.com/doc/f69893681.html,tin American economies?rst increased their taxation of farmers but gradually moved during the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s from around220percent to5percent.Africa’s NRAs were similar though slightly less negative than those of Latin America until the latter 1980s,before they fell back to27percent(implying a gross tax equivalent per farmer of$6).In Europe’s transition economies farmer assistance fell to almost zero at the start of their transition from socialism in the early1990s;but since then,in preparation for EU accession or because of booms in exports of raw materials for energy production,assistance has gradually increased to nearly 20percent,or$550per farmer(Anderson2009,ch.1).

The developing country average NRA also conceals the fact that the exporting and import-competing subsectors of agriculture have very different NRAs. Figure3reveals that while the average NRA for exporters in developing countries has been negative throughout(coming back from250percent to almost zero in 2000–04),the NRA for import-competing farmers in developing countries has ?uctuated around a trend rise from10and30percent(and it even reached 40percent in the years of low international prices in the mid-1980s).Having increased in the1960s and1970s,the anti-trade bias within agriculture for developing countries has diminished considerably since the mid-1980s,but the NRA gap between the two subsectors still averages around20percentage points.

That anti-trade bias means that the rates of assistance are not uniform across commodities,which indicates that the resources that are being used within the farm sector are not being put to their best use.The extent of that extra inef?ciency,over and above that due to too many or too few resources in aggregate in the sector,is indicated by the standard deviation of NRAs among covered products in each focus country.This dispersion index has?uctuated between43and60percent throughout the past?ve decades,with no discernible trend(Anderson2009,table1.6).Figure4 shows that rice,sugar,and milk(the rice pudding ingredients)are by far the most assisted farm industries in both high-income and developing countries.Beef and poultry meat have the next highest NRAs in high-income countries followed by cotton—while in developing countries cotton has the lowest(most negative)NRA.

A further decomposition of the developing countries’NRAs worth commenting on is the contribution to them from trade policy measures at each country’s border as distinct from domestic output or input subsidies or taxes.Often political attention is focused much more on direct domestic subsidies or taxes than on 34The W orld Bank Research Observer,vol.25,no.1(February2010)

trade measures,because those ?scal measures are made so transparent through the annual budgetary scrutiny process,whereas trade measures are reviewed only infrequently and are far less transparent,especially if they are not in the simple form of ad valorem tariffs.That attention would appear to be misplaced,however,because between 80and 90percent of the NRA for developing country agriculture (not including non-product-speci?c support,which is very minor)comes from border measures such as import tariffs or export taxes (Anderson 2009,ch.1).The improvement in farmers’incentives in developing countries is understated by the above NRAag estimates,because those countries have also reduced

their Figure 3.Nominal Rates of Assistance to Exportable,Import-competing,and All Covered Agricultural Products,a High-income and Developing Countries,1955to 2007(percent)a

Covered products only .The total also includes non-tradable goods.

Note :The sloped straight line is an ordinary least squares regression trend line over the period shown.Source :Anderson (2009).Anderson 35

assistance to producers of non-agricultural tradable goods,most notably manufac-turers.The decline in the weighted average NRA for the latter,depicted in ?gure 5,was clearly much greater than the increase in the average NRA for trad-able agricultural sectors for the period to the mid-1980s,consistent with the

?nding of Krueger,Schiff,and Valde

′s (1988,1991).For the period since the mid-1980s,changes in both sectors’NRAs have contributed almost equally to the improvement in farmer incentives.The Relative Rate of Assistance,captured in equation (6)above,provides a useful indicator of relative price change:the RRA for developing countries as a group went from 246percent in the second half of the 1970s to 1percent in the ?rst half of the present decade.This increase (from a coef?cient of 0.54to 1.01)is equivalent to an almost doubling in the relative price of farm products,which is a huge change in the fortunes of developing country farmers in just a generation.This is mostly because of the changes in Asia,but even for Latin America that relative price hike is one-half,while for Africa that indicator improves by only one-eighth (?gure 6).

One of the main contributors to the Asian changes is China,and a non-trivial part of its reform came through reducing its overvalued of?cial exchange rate.There,as in some other developing countries,the distortion in the domestic market for foreign currencies was gradually reduced in an indirect way ,namely ,by allowing exporters to sell an increasing share of their foreign currency earn-ings on a higher-priced secondary market.This lowered the trade tax equivalent of that distortion over time,and hence its impact on the NRA for farm and

non-Figure 4.Nominal Rates of Assistance,Key Covered Products,High-income and Developing Countries,1980–84and 2000–04(percent)

Source :Anderson and Valenzuela (2008),based on estimates reported in the project’s national country studies.36The W orld Bank Research Observer ,vol.25,no.1(February 2010)

Figure 6.Relative Rates of Assistance to Tradables,a Asia,Africa and Latin America,1965to 2004(percent)

a

Five-year weighted averages with value of production at undistorted prices as weights.In Asia,estimates for China pre-1981are based on the assumption that the nominal rate of assistance to agriculture and non-agricultural tradables,and hence the RRA in those earlier years,were the same as the average NRA estimates for China in 1981–89.

Source :Anderson

(2009).Figure 5.Nominal Rates of Assistance to Agricultural and Non-agricultural Sectors and Relative Rate of Assistance,a Developing Countries,1965b to 2004(percent,weighted averages)

a

The RRA is de?ned as 100*[(100tNRAag t )/(100tNRAnonag t )21],where NRAag t and NRAnonag t are the percentage NRAs for the tradables parts of the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors,respectively .b Assumes China’s NRA values pre-1981were the same as in 1981–84.

Source :Anderson (2009).Anderson 37

farm sectors,depending on the changing extent to which they are net-exporting or net-importing sectors.The impact of China’s dual exchange rate system is shown in table 2:it made the RRA estimates about one-?fth larger in the mid-1980s,but that difference gradually fell to zero by the mid-1990s.

Finally ,even though the developing country average agricultural NRA and RRA are now close to zero,and those for high-income countries have been moving towards zero since the late 1980s,there remains a huge spectrum of national averages (?gure 7).This suggests there is still a great deal to be gained through inter-national relocation of farm production between countries.That possibility ,together with the possibility of gains from reducing the dispersion between product NRAs within countries,can best be explored with the use of a global economy-wide model.Attention thus now turns to estimates of the market,welfare and distributional effects of the distortions to agricultural incentives that remain in both high-income and poorer countries.This is done using a global model calibrated to 2004.

Market,Welfare,and Distributional Effects of Remaining Trade-distorting Policies

The new World Bank distortion estimates summarized above and available in downloadable detail (Anderson and Valenzuela 2008)show that while average Table 2.Impact of Exchange Rate Distortions on Nominal Rates of Assistance to Agricultural Relative to Non-agricultural Industries,China,1981to 2004(percent)

1981–841985–891990–941995–992000–05

Including exchange rate distortions

NRA,all agric.products (excl.NPS)

247.6237.9217.2 3.5 2.0Trade bias index,all agric.a

25025522321527Relative rate of assistance,RRA b

260.6249.9231.123.0 1.3Ignoring exchange rate distortions c

NRA,all agric.products (excl.NPS)

234.9227.1211.6 3.5 2.0Trade bias index,all agric.a

23323821321527Relative rate of assistance,RRA b

252.2241.0226.523.0 1.3a Trade bias index is 100*[(1tNRAag x )/(1tNRAag m )–1],where NRAag m and NRAag x are the average percentage NRAs for the import-competing and exportable parts of the agricultural sector.

b The RRA is de?ned as 100*[(100tNRAag t )/(100tNRAnonag t )21],where NRAag t and NRAnonag t are the percentage NRAs for the tradables parts of the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors,respectively .

c Here is shown how the average NRAag ,trade bias index,an

d RRA would b

e affected i

f the distortions in the market for foreign currency ,as captured by the methodology outlined in Anderson and others (2008),are ignored.

NPS:non-product-speci?c assistance.

Source :Summarized from Huang and others (2009).

38The W orld Bank Research Observer ,vol.25,no.1(February 2010)

distortions facing developing country farmers are now much less than in earlier decades,nonetheless there remains a considerable range of distortions,including a strong anti-trade bias in agricultural policies for many countries.Furthermore,non-agricultural protectionism is still rife in some developing countries

and Figure 7.Cross-country Dispersion of NRA (All Agriculture Products,including NPS)and RRA,2000–04(percent)

Source :Anderson and V alenzuela (2008),based on estimates reported in the project’s national country studies.Anderson 39

agricultural supports are still substantial in high-(and some middle-)income countries.

This section addresses two questions:To what extent are government trade and subsidy policies still reducing farm incomes in developing countries and thereby prolonging inequality across countries in farm household incomes?And are those policy-induced price distortions depressing value added more in primary agricul-ture than in the rest of the economy of developing countries,thereby potentially raising inequality and poverty within those countries?With farm incomes well below non-farm incomes in most developing countries,and with agriculture there being intensive in the use of unskilled labor,policies that lower agricultural rela-tive to non-agricultural value added,and wages for the unskilled relative to skilled wages and capital earnings,would tend to exacerbate inequality and poverty.

Answers to these two questions are provided in Anderson,Valenzuela,and van der Mensbrugghe(forthcoming).They?rst draw on the above-mentioned new database of distortions to agricultural markets in developing countries to amend the latest Global Trade Analysis Project(GT AP)protection database(pre-release Version7.5,which refers to2004).7They then employ that amended database in a global computable general equilibrium model(L INKAGE—see van der Mensbrugghe2005)to assess how agricultural markets,factor prices,and value added in agriculture versus non-farm sectors would change if all such distortion-ary policies were removed(holding aggregate government taxes and spending constant by use of a lump-sum consumption tax).The comparative static results (assuming full adjustment)are presented?rst for the key regions of the world, beginning with national economic welfare where the impact of agricultural versus non-farm policies is highlighted.8While no-one anticipates a move to com-pletely free markets in the near future,the analysis serves as a benchmark to suggest what is at stake in terms of further reforms,either unilaterally or via World Trade Organization(WTO)rounds of multilateral trade negotiations.It also provides a better indication of agricultural comparative advantages in different parts of the world than is available by looking at actual trade and self-suf?ciency indicators in the current distortion-ridden situation.

According to the amended dataset,the average import-weighted applied tariff for agriculture and lightly processed food in2004was11percent for high-income countries and14percent for developing countries,while for non-farm goods it was7percent for developing countries and just1percent for high-income countries.Export subsidies for farm products exist for a few high-income regions,and export taxes are still in place in a few developing countries(notably Argentina since late2001).Production subsidies and taxes also are much less prevalent than import tariffs,even though they include,in the case of developing 40The W orld Bank Research Observer,vol.25,no.1(February2010)

世界贸易和国际贸易【外文翻译】

外文翻译 原文 World Trade and International Trade Material Source:https://www.doczj.com/doc/f69893681.html, Author: Ted Alax In today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations are self-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of world trade and economic activity. As a result of this trade and activity, international finance and banking have evolved. For example, the United States is a major consumer of coffee, yet it does not have the climate to grow any or its own. Consequently, the United States must import coffee from countries (such as Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala) that grow coffee efficiently. On the other hand, the United States has large industrial plants capable of producing a variety of goods, such as chemicals and airplanes, which can be sold to nations that need them. If nations traded item for item, such as one automobile for 10,000 bags of coffee, foreign trade would be extremely cumbersome and restrictive. So instead of batter, which is trade of goods without an exchange of money, the United State receives money in payment for what it sells. It pays for Brazilian coffee with dollars, which Brazil can then use to buy wool from Australia, which in turn can buy textiles Great Britain, which can then buy tobacco from the United State. Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above is that no nation has all of the commodities that it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa and petroleum is recovered in the Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them. Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough of a particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar.

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