保险公司风险管理外文翻译文献

文献出处：Hammoudeh S, McAleer M. Risk management and financial derivatives: An overview[J]. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2013, 25: 109-115.原文Risk management and financial derivatives:An overviewShawkat ; MichaelAbstractRisk management is crucial for optimal portfolio management. One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance is the expansion of financial derivatives. The purpose of this special issue on “Risk Management and Financial Derivatives” is to highlight some areas in which novel econometric, financial econometric and empirical finance methods have contributed significantly to the analysis of risk management, with an emphasis on financial derivatives, specifically conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns, pricing exotic options using the Wang transform, the rise and fall of S&P500 variance futures, predicting volatility using Markov switching multifractal model: evidence from S&P100 index and equity options, the performance of commodity trading advisors: a mean-variance-ratio test approach, forecasting volatility via stock return, range, trading volume and spillover effects: the case of Brazil, estimating and simulating Weibull models of risk or price durations: an application to ACD models, valuation of double trigger catastrophe options with counterparty risk, day of the week effect onthe VIX –a parsimonious representation, equity and CDS sector indices: dynamic models and risk hedging, the probability of default in collateralized credit operations, risk premia in multi-national enterprises, solving claims replication problems in a complete market by orthogonal series expansion, downside risk management and VaR-based optimal portfolios for precious metals, oil and stocks, and implied Sharpe ratios of portfolios with options: application to Nikkei futures and listed options.Keywords: Risk management; Optimal portfolios; Financial derivatives; Financial econometrics; Options; Futures;V olatility; Spillovers; Hedging; Default; Risk premia; Claims replication1. IntroductionRisk management is crucial for optimal portfolio management. One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance is the expansion of financial derivatives. While some of the key issues underlying risk and portfolio management are reasonably well understood, many of the technical and empirical issues underlying the creation and movements in financial derivatives are less well understood.It is our hope that the interesting, invaluable and innovative papers in this special issue will encourage others to undertake research in a variety of challenging areas associated with the exciting and rapidly expanding areas of risk management and financial derivatives.2. OverviewIn the first paper, “Conditional Correlations and V olatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns”, Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan), Michael McAleer (Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands) and Roengchai Tansuchat (Maejo University, Thailand) investigate the conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between the crude oil and financial markets, based on crude oil returns and stock index returns.Daily returns from January 2, 1998 to November 4, 2009 of the crude oil spot, forward and futures prices from the WTI and Brent markets, and the FTSE100, NYSE, Dow Jones and S&P500 stock index returns, are analyzed using Bollerslev's CCC model, Ling and McAleer's V ARMA-GARCH model, McAleer, Hoti and Chan's V ARMA-AGARCH model, and Engle's DCC model.Based on the CCC model, the estimates of conditional correlations for returns across markets are very low, and some are not statistically significant, which means the conditional shocks are correlated only in the same market and not across markets. However, the DCC estimates of the conditional correlations are always significant. This result makes it clear that the assumption of constant conditional correlations is not supported empirically.Surprisingly, the empirical results from the V ARMA-GARCH and V ARMA-AGARCH models provide little evidence of volatility spillovers between the crude oil and financial markets. The evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive shocks of equal magnitude on the conditional variances suggests thatV ARMA-AGARCH is superior to V ARMA-GARCH and CCC. The estimation and analysis of the volatility and conditional correlations between crude oil returns and stock index returns can provide useful information for investors, oil traders and government agencies that are concerned with the crude oil and stock markets, especially regarding optimal hedging across the two markets.As the second paper, Coenraad Labuschagne (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa) and Theresa Offwood (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa) analyze the theoretical and practical issue of “Pricing Exotic Options Using the Wang Transform”. The Wang transform allows for a simple, yet intuitive approach to pricing options with underlying based on geometric Brownian motion. The authors show how the approach by Hamada and Sherris (2003) can be used to price some exotic options. Examples are given to show the convergence of the Wang price to the Black-Scholes price for a Margrabe option, a geometric basket option and an asset-or-nothing option. The authors also examine the range of prices that is achievable using the Wang transform for these options.Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan), Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin (Complutense University of Madrid, Spain), Michael McAleer (Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands) and Teodosio Perez-Amaral (Complutense University of Madrid, Spain) analyze “The Rise and Fall of S&P500 Variance Futures” in the third paper. Modeling, monitoring and forecasting volatility are indispensible to sensible portfolio risk management.The volatility of an asset of composite index can be traded by using volatilityderivatives, such as volatility and variance swaps, options and futures. The most popular volatility index is VIX, which is a key measure of market expectations of volatility, and hence also an important barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility. Investors interpret the VIX cash index as a “fear” index, and of VIX options and VIX futures as derivatives of the “fear” index.In the fourth paper, entitled “Predicting V olatility Using Markov Switching Multifractal Model: Evi dence from S&P 100 Index and Equity Options”, Wen-I Chuang (National Taiwan University, Taiwan), Teng-Ching Huang (National Taiwan University of Sciences and Technology, Taiwan) and Bing-Huei Lin (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan) evaluate the performance of the ability of Markov-switching multifractal (MSM), implied, GARCH, and historical volatilities to predict realized volatility for both the S&P100 index and equity options. Some important findings are as follows.First, the authors find that the ability of MSM and GARCH volatilities to predict realized volatility is better than that of implied and historical volatilities for both the index and equity options. Second, equity option volatility is more difficult to be forecast than index option volatility. Third, both index and equity option volatilities can be better forecast during non-global financial crisis periods than during global financial crisis periods. Fourth, equity option volatility exhibits distinct patterns conditional on various equity and option characteristics and its predictability by MSM and implied volatilities depends on these characteristics. Finally, the authors find that MSM volatility outperforms implied volatility in predicting equity option volatilityconditional on various equity and option characteristics.3. Final remarksIt is our hope that the collection of interesting, invaluable and innovative papers in this special issue by some of the leading experts in the field of “Risk Management and Financial Derivatives” will b e of wide interest to theoreticians and practitioners alike in risk and portfolio management, empirical finance and financial econometrics, and will encourage others to undertake research in a variety of challenging areas associated with the exciting and rapidly expanding areas of risk management and financial derivatives. It is our pleasure to acknowledge all the contributors for preparing their interesting and innovative papers in a timely manner, and for actively participating in the rigorous review process.译文风险管理和金融衍生品:一个综述沙乌卡特 ; 迈克尔摘要风险管理对于最优投资组合管理来说是至关重要的。

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项目风险管理分析中英文对照外文翻译文献中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)原文：Project Risk AnalysisChapter 1 Introduction1.1 About this compendiumThis course compendium is to be used in the course “Risikostyring is projector”. The focus will be on the following topics:R isk identificationRisk structuringRisk modeling in the light of a time schedule and a cost modelRisk follows upWe will also discuss elements related to decision analysis where risk is involved, and use of life cycle cost and life cycle profit models. The course compendium comprises a large number of exercises, and it is recommended to do most of the exercises in order to get a good understanding of the topics and methods described. A separate MS Excel program, pRisk.xls has been developed in order to assist numerical calculations and to conduct Monte Carlo simulation.1.2 DefinitionsAleatory uncertaintyVariation of quantities in a population. We sometimes use the word variability rather than aleatory uncertainty.Epistemic uncertaintyLack of knowledge about the “world”, and observablequantities in particular. DependencyThe relation between the sequences of the activities in a project.Observable quantityA quantity expressing a state of the “world”, i.e. a quantity of the p hysical reality or nature, that is unknown at the time of the analysis but will, if the system being analyzed is actually implemented, take some value in the future, and possibly become known. ParameterWe use the term parameter in two ways in this report. The main use of a parameter is that it is a quantity that is a part of the risk analysis models, and for which we assign numerical values. The more academic definition of a parameter used in a probabilitystatement about an observable quantity, X, is that a parameter is a construct where the value of the parameter is the limiting value where we are not able to saturate our understanding about the observable quantity X whatsoever new information we could get hold of. Parameter estimate The numeric value we assess to a parameter.ProbabilityA measure of uncertainty of an event.RiskRisk is defined as the answer to the three questions [14]: i) what can go wrong? ii) How likely is it? And if it goes wrong, iii) what are the consequences? To describe the risk is a scenario Risk acceptanceA decision to accept a risk.Risk acceptance criterionA reference by which risk is assessed to be acceptable orunacceptable.ScheduleA plan which specifies the start and finalization point of times for the activities in a project.Stochastic dependencyTwo or more stochastic variables are (stochastically) dependent if the expectation of one stochastic variable depends on the value of one or more of the other stochastic variables. Stochastic variableA stochastic variable, or random quantity, is a quantity for which we do not know the value it will take. However, we could state statistical properties of the variable or make probability statement about the value of the quantity.1.3 DEFINITIONSUncertaintyLack of knowledge about the performance of a system, and observable quantities in particular.Chapter 2Risk ManagementGenerally, risk management is defined (IEC 60300-3-9) as a “systematic application ofmanagement policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of analyzing, evaluating and controlling risk”. It will comprise (IEC definitions in parentheses):Risk assessment, i.e.–Risk analysis (“Systematic use of available information to identify hazards and to estimate the r isk to individuals or populations, property or the environment”)–Risk evaluation (“Process in which judgments are made on the tolerability of the risk on the basis of risk analysis and takinginto account factors such as socio-economic and environmental aspects”)Risk reduction/control (Decision making, implementation and risk monitoring).There exists no common definition of risk, but for instance IEC 60300-3-9 defines risk as a “combination of the frequency, or probability, of occurrence and the consequence of a specified hazardous events”. Most definitions comprise the elements of probabilities and consequences. However, some as Klinke and Renn suggest a very wide definition, stating: “Risk refers to the possibility that human actions or events lead to consequences that affect aspects of what humans value”. So the total risk comprises the possibility of number (“all”) unwanted/hazardous events. It is part of the risk analysis to delimit which hazards to include. Further, risk usually refers to threats in the future, involving a (high) degree of uncertainty. In the following we will present the basic elements of risk management as it is proposed to be an integral part of project management.2.1 Project objectives and criteriaIn classical risk analysis of industrial systems the use of so-called risk acceptance criteria has played a central role in the last two or tree decades. Basically use of risk acceptance criteria means that some severe consequences are defined, e.g. accident with fatalities. Then we try to set an upper limit for the probability of these consequences that could be accepted, i.e. we could not accept higher probabilities in any situations. Further these probabilities could only be accepted if risk reduction is not possible, or the cost of risk reduction is very high.In recent years it has been a discussion in the risk analysis society whether it is fruitful or not to use risk acceptance criteriaaccording to the principles above. It is argued that very often risk acceptance criteria are set arbitrary, and these do not necessarily support the overall best solutions. Therefore, it could be more fruitful to use some kind of risk evaluation criteria, rather than strict acceptance criteria. In project risk management we could establish acceptance criteria related to two types of events: Events with severe consequences related to health, environment and safety.Events with severe consequences related to project costs, project quality, project duration, oreven termination of the project. In this course we will have main focus on the project costs and the duration of the project. Note that both project cost and project duration are stochastic variables and not events. Thus it is not possible to establish acceptance criteria to project cost or duration directly. Basically, there are three types of numeric values we could introduce in relation to such stochastic variables describing the project:1. Target. The target expresses our ambitions in the project. The target shall be something we are striving at, and it should be possible to reach the target. It is possible to introduce (internal) bonuses, or other rewards in order to reach the targets in a project.2. Expectation. The expectations are the value the stochastic variables will achieve in the long run, or our expectation about the outcome. The expectation is less ambitious than the target. The expectation will in a realistic way account for hazards, and threats and conditions which often contribute to the fact that the targets are not met.3. Commitment. The commitments are values related to the stochastic variables which are regulated in agreements andcontracts. For example it could be stated in the contract that a new bridge shall be completed within a given date. If we are not able to fulfill the commitments, this will usually result in economical consequences, for example penalties for defaults, or in the worst case canceling of the contract.2.2 Risk identificationA scenario is a description of a imagined sequence or chain of events, e.g. we have a water leakage, and we are not able to stop this leakage with ordinary tightening medium due to the possible environmental aspects which is not clarified at the moment. Further the green movement is also likely to enter the scene in this case. A hazard is typically related to energies, poisonous media etc, and if they are released this will result in an accident or a severe event. A threat is a wider term than hazard, and we include also aspects as “wrong” method applied, “lack of competence and experience”. The term threat is also very often used in connection with security problems, e.g. sabotage, terrorism, and vandalism.2.3 Structuring and modeling of riskIn Section 2.2 we have identified methods to identify events and threats. We now want to relate these events and threats to the explicit models we have for project costs and project duration.2.3.1 Model for project execution time/schedule modelingWhen analyzing the execution time for a project we will have a project plan and typicallya Gantt diagram as a starting point. The Gantt diagram is transformed into a so-called flow network where the connections between the activities are explicitly described. Such a flow network also comprises description of duration of the activities in terms of probability statements. The duration of each activityis stochasticVariables, which we denote Ti for activity in a flow network we might also have uncertain activities which will be carried out only under special conditions. These conditions could be described in terms of events, and we need to describe the probability of occurrence of such events. Thus, there is a set of quantities, i.e. time variables and events in the model. The objective is now to link the undesired events and threats discussed in Section 2.2 to these time variables and events. Time variables are described by a probability distribution function. Such a distribution function comprises parameters that characterize the time variable. Often a parametric probability distribution is described by the three quantities L (low), M (most likely) and H high. If an undesired event occur, it is likely that the values of L, M and H will be higher than in case this event does not occur. A way to include the result from the risk identification process is then to express the different values of L, M and H depending on whether the critical event occurs or not. If we in addition are able to assess the probability of occurrence of the critical event, the knowledge about this critical event has been completely included into the risk model. Based on such an explicit modeling of the critical event, we could also easily update the model in case of new information about the critical event is obtained, for example new information could be available at a later stage in the process and changes of the plan could still be possible in light of the new information.2.3.2 Cost modelingThe cost model is usually based on the cost breakdown structure, and the cost elements will again be functions of labor cost, overtime cost, purchase price, hour cost of rentingequipment, material cost, amount of material etc. The probabilistic modeling of cost is usually easier than for modeling project execution time. The principle is just to add a lot of cost terms, where each cost term is the product of the unit price and the number of units. We introduce price and volume as stochastic variables to describe the unit price and the number of units. The price and volume variables should also be linked to the undesired events and threats we have identified in Section 2.2. Often it is necessary to link the cost model to the schedule model. For example in case of delays it might be necessary to put more effort into the project to catch up with the problems, and these efforts could be very costly. Also, if the project is delayed we may need to pay extra cost to sub-contractors that have to postpone their support into the project.2.3.3 Uncertainty in schedule and cost modelingAs indicated above we will establish probabilistic models to describe the duration and cost of a project. The result of such a probabilistic modeling is that we treat the duration and cost as stochastic variables. Since duration and costs are stochastic variables, this means that there is uncertainty regarding the values they will take in the real project we are evaluating. Sometimes we split this uncertainty into three different categories, i) Aleatory uncertainty (variability due to e.g. weather conditions, labor conflicts, breakdown of machines etc.), ii) para meter or epistemic uncertainty due to lack of knowledge about “true” parameter values, and iii) model uncertainty due to lack of detailed, or wrong modeling. Under such thinking, the aleatory uncertainty could not be reduced; it is believed to be the result of the variability in the world which we cannot control. Uncertainty in the parameters is, however, believed to bereducible by collecting more information. Also uncertainty in the models is believed to be reducible by more detailed modeling, and decomposition of the various elements that go into the model. It is appealing to have a mental model where the uncertainty could be split into one part which we might not reduce (variability), and one part which we might reduce by thorough analysis and more investigation (increased knowledge). If we are able to demonstrate that the part of the uncertainty related to lack of knowledge and understanding has been reduced to a sufficient degree, we could then claim high confidence in the analysis. In some situation the owner or the authorities put forward requirements. Which could be interpreted as confidence regarding the quality of the analysis? It is though not always clear what is meant by such a confidence level. As an example, let E(C) be the expected cost of a p roject. A confidence statement could now be formulated as “The probability that the actual project cost is within an interval E(C) ± 10% should at least be 70%”. It is, however, not straight forward to document such a confidence level in a real analysis. T he “Successive process (trinnvisprosessen)” [4] is an attempt to demonstrate how to reduce the “uncertainty” in the result to a certain level of confidence.We also mention that Even [12] has recently questioned such an approach where there exist model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, and emphasizes that we in the analysis should focus on the observable quantities which will become evident for us if the project is executed, e.g. the costs, and that uncertainty in these quantities represent the lack of knowledge about which values they will take in the future. This discussion is not pursuit any more in this presentation.2.4 Risk elements for follow up: Risk and opportunity registerAs risk elements and threats are identified in Section 2.2 these have to be controlled as far as possible. It is not sufficient to identify these conditions and model them in the schedule and cost models, we also have to mitigate the risk elements and threats. In order to ensure a systematic follow up of risk elements and threats it is recommended to establish a so-called threat log. The terms ?Risk Register…and ?Risk & Opportunity Register…(R&OR) is sometimes used rather than the term ?threat log.… A R&OR is best managed by a database solution, for example an MS-Access Database. Each row in the database represents one risk element or threat. The fields in such a database could vary, but the following fields seems reasonable: ? ID. An identifier is required in order to keep track of the threat in relation to the quantitative risk models, to follow up actions ET.Description. A description of the threat is necessary in order to understand the content of the problem. It could be necessary to state the immediate consequences (e.g. occupational accident), but also consequences in terms of the main objectives of the project, e.g. time and costs.Likelihood or probability. A judgment regarding how probable it is that the threat or the risk condition will be released in terms of e.g. undesired or critical events.Impact. If possible, give a direct impact on cost and schedule if the event occurs, either by an expected impact, or by L, M and H values.References to cost and schedule. In order to update the schedule and cost models it is convenient to give an explicit reference from the R&OR into the schedule and cost models. ? Manageability. Here it is descried how the threat could beinfluenced, either by implementing measures to eliminate the threat prior to it reveals it self, or measures in orderto reduce the consequences in case of the threat will materialize.Alert information. It is important to be aware of information that could indicate the development of the threat before it eventually will materialize. If such information is available we could implement relevant measures if necessary. For example it could be possible to take ground samples at a certain cost, but utilizing the information from such samples could enable us to choose appropriate methods for tunnel penetration.Measures. List of measures that could be implemented to reduce the risk.Deadline and responsible. Identification of who is responsible for implementing and follow up of the measure or threat, and any deadlines.Status. Both with respect to the threat and any measure it is valuable to specify the development, i.e. did the treat reveal it self into undesired events with unwanted consequences, did the measure play any positive effect etc.2.5 Correction and controlAs the project develops the R&OR is the primary control tool for risk follow up. By following the status of the various threats, risk elements and measures we could monitor the risk in the project. This information should of course be linked to the time and cost plans. If a given threat does not reveal in terms of undesired events, the time and cost estimates could be lowered and this gain could be utilized in other part of the project, or in other projects. In the opposite situation it is necessary to increase the time and cost estimates, and we need to consider newmeasures, and maybe spend some of the reserves to catch up in case of an expected delay. During the life cycle of a project it will occur new threats and risk elements which we did not foresee in the initial risk identification process. Such threats must continuously be entered into the R&OR, and measures need to be considered.一、介绍（一）关于本纲要本课程纲要过程中研究的是“风险也是一种项目”。

财务风险管理外文文献翻译原文+译文财务风险管理外文文献翻译原文+译文【2016年8月】目录原文：Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such aschanges in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:1. Financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systems What Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and strategies work to reduce risk within the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are traded widely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who seek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss ishighly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows:1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset’s riskines s, but also its contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio to which it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result ofrisk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities for diversification, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of theexposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks. Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails. Diversification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management’s control. Although the risk of loss still exists, diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk management process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for risk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with riskmanagement policy. For example, it might be possible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the。

Internal control and risk management1.Internal control --, standard and legislationIn 1985, the United States in order to curb the growing business of accounting fraud activities, formed a committee against financial fraud Treadway committee), (accounting fraud activities investigation led to reason and proposed solutions. The scheme emphasized the importance of internal control, requests and Suggestions of all listed companies should provide in the annals of internal control reports. The report shall include admit management authorities of financial reporting and internal control is responsible, and discuss the implementation of these responsibilities.In The end The mission Treadway Committee after The five, The commission launched organization jointly established a new Committee - The Com - mittee COSO (Sponsoring Organizations of The Treadway of ordinary), namely The organizing Committee Treadway Committee launched. It consists of the American public institute of certified public accountants (AICPA), American accounting association (AAA), international financial management association (FEI), internal auditors association (type IIA), international accounting association (NAA would) (a managerial accounting association jointly sponsored IMA predecessor). COSO continue to study and in 1992 it issued a programmatic document about the Internal Control, namely "Internal Control - the overall framework" (Internal Control - IntegratedFramework). The reports are put forward the COSO U.S. federal reserve, the United States securities and exchange commission, the Basel committee regulators or international organizations such as the recognition and adopted, many of these definitions, Suggestions and ideas absorbed into the legislation and regulations, worldwide has had a broad impact. Since THE end of 2001, THE United States broke with enron, worldcom, xerox and other companies financial cases of fraud as a representative of accounting scandals, hit U.S. capital markets and THE economy, also concentrated exposure for American companies in THE existing problem of internal control, thus causing THE United States adopted THE "sasha class nice --, THE extension of THE law (SARBANES OXLEY ACT) -. The bill made clear company managers CEO and CFO finance director of internal control, and will be held directly responsible shall undertake economic and criminal consequences; Greatly improve the punishment of accounting fraud; Strengthening the internal audit, external audit and audit supervision. This legislation represents a large capital marketsystem, also make the progress of the importance of internal control people have more deeply.2.The internal control and risk management comparisonInternal control and risk management has the close relation. COSO internal control is that part of the risk management. Therefore, the committee in the whole framework of internal control - the basis of, and in 2003 issued a new report --, "enterprise risk management framework". At present the report was only a rough draft, in public, revised later, is expected to formally released this year. The enterprise risk management framework "inherit and contains the whole framework of internal control - the main content also expanded the three elements, added a goal, updated some ideas for countries to provide a unified enterprise risk management terms and concepts of comprehensive application guide system.COSO internal control and risk management of the definition and elements were: Internal control: enterprise internal control is by the enterprise board of directors, managers, and other staff to implement, for financial reporting accuracy, business activity of efficiency and effect, the relevant laws and regulations such as the follow to achieve the goal of the process and provide reasonable assurance. It includes five elements: control environment, risk assessment, control activities, information and communication, the surveillance.Risk management: enterprise risk management is a process of the board of directors, the management of enterprises and other personnel to implement, applied in strategy formulation and enterprise all levels of activity, aims to identify possible influence enterprise various potential events, and according to enterprise's risk preference for enterprises to manage risk, to achieve the goal of providing reasonable assurance. It has eight elements: the internal environment, goal setting, event risk identification, risk assessment, countermeasures, control activities, information and communication, the surveillance.The two reports from the COSO perspective, the enterprise risk management and internal control has the following similar or different places:First, they are made by "enterprise board, management and other personnel to implement", emphasize the point, says the participation parties on the internal control and risk management has a corresponding roles and responsibilities.Second, they are all clearly is a "process", not as a static thing, such as system files, technical model and so on, also not be alone or extra activities, such asinspection, evaluation is best placed inside enterprise daily management process, as a kind of routine operation mechanism to construction.Third, they are for the realization of the goal of enterprise provide reasonable assurance. Risk management objectives are four categories, including three categories and internal control collocated, namely report targets, business targets and follow the targets. But the report targets have expanded, it not only include financial report, also requires all the accuracy of internal and external non-financial class report issued by the accurate and reliable. In addition, risk management increased the strategic target, namely and enterprise vision or mission related high-level objectives. This means that risk management is not only ensure management efficiency and effect, and intervention in the enterprise strategy (including business objectives) formulation process.Fourth, risk management and internal control elements have five aspects, i.e. (overlap is control or internal) environment, risk assessment, control activities, information and communication, the surveillance. These coincide most of their goals and realization mechanism coincide of similar decision. Risk management increased goal setting, event identification and risk countermeasures three factors. Coincide elements, connotation, for example, has been extended internal control environment including honest character and moral values, staff quality and ability, the board of directors and the audit committee, management philosophy and management style, the organizational structure, the power and the allocation of responsibility, human resource policies and practices seven aspects. Risk management "internal environment" in addition to include these seven aspects outside, still include risk management philosophy, risk preference (appetite) and risks associated cultural three new content. In the risk assessment elements, risk management requires the consideration of the inherent risk and residual risk, with expectations, worst case values or probability distribution measure risk and to consider time preferences and risk association between the role. In information and communication, risk management emphasized the past, present and future of the relevant data about obtaining and analysis, provides information of the depth and timeliness, etc.Fifth, risk management proposes risk portfolio and the overall risk management (in tegrated management) - are new idea. The enterprise risk management framework "in the theory of modern financial borrowing portfolio risk theory, this paper puts forward the concept of combination and overall management from enterprise level,demanding dispersed in the overall grasp all levels and departments of enterprise, the risk exposure with overall consideration risk countermeasures, prevent dispersed consider and coping by department, such as will risk the risk in technology, financial, separated by information technology, environment, safety, quality, auditing departments, and considering the interaction between risk events, prevent two tendencies: one is the department's risk in risk preference can withstand ability, but within the overall effect may be beyond sustaining limit, because individual risk influence is not always add, may be multiplied; Second is the risk of individual departments over its limits, but exposure to the overall risk level haven't beyond sustaining range, because sometimes has offset the effects of the event of the effect. At this time, and further, strive for higher return risk with room to grow. According to risk portfolio and the overall management point of view, need unification consideration risk events as risk countermeasures between interaction between, overall risk management plan formulated.3. Internal control and risk management inner linkEnterprise system evolution and risk associated with the development. The establishment of a limited liability system is running or partnership enterprise organization from the key turning into a modern shares, it enables shareholders steps possessions and enterprise property and enterprise economic responsibility independent, shareholder transformation will no longer affect the enterprise credit capacity for equity transactions, expanded range and increased liquidity, which reduces the risk of investment and promoting enterprise financing, contributed to today a giant corporation.In order to make equity trading and the shareholders transform business continuity, influence and to make capital and management ability realize more optimal combination of ownership and management, enterprise in the modern enterprise of altitude, which also separate brings new risks, namely professional operators might not perform its accountability and shareholders' expense. In addition, limited liability may also lure enterprise engaged in high risk and damage the project's creditors. Because in limited liability, the potential revenue mainly by the enterprise (shareholders) to obtain, and the risk of failure, the major that bankruptcy is borne by the obligee. The risk is not marketization, the market competition spontaneous constraints or market transactions, such as providing a hedge product quality or natural disasters, but mechanism, belongs to the organization or trade in agency issues,need to regulate rules and system. These systems include corporate governance in the liability system, such as financial report, an internal control and audit, etc.Internal control and risk management is the fundamental role maintenance, security enterprise asset investor interest, and create new value. Fama&Jensen (1983) analyzed under the board of directors of ownership and separation of the internal control functions; Jensen (1993) further analyzed the American board of directors in internal control with reasons for the failure of performance. Theoretically, the enterprise internal control is the enterprise system component, is in the enterprise management and ownership of the separation of investor benefit under the condition of the protection mechanism. Its purpose is to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the accounting information management, prevent manipulation of statements and fraud and protect the company's property security, comply with the law in order to maintain the company's reputation and avoid incur pecuniary loss, etc. The historical origin of internal control, the requirements to earlier more basic, easier or appropriate rise to legislative level. Enterprise risk management is in the new technology and the market conditions of natural extension of internal control. COSO in the enterprise risk management framework of risk management of significance about when this is the case discussion: "enterprise risk management strategy and organization used in the various levels activities. It enables managers in the face of uncertainty can identify, evaluate and manage risk, play the role of creation and maintain value. Risk management can make risk preference and strategic keeps consistent, will risk and growth and return overall consideration, promote the decision against risks and reduce the risk and losses, identify business management and enterprise crossover risk, for various risks to provide overall countermeasures, capture opportunities and make capital rationalization." COCO in explaining the generalized control and risk discusses way: "' leadership 'in the face of uncertainty include choice." risk "refers to individuals or organizations are making choices adverse consequences after the possibility of suffering. The risk is opportunity counterparts." Obviously, these discussions have realized that enterprise exists for shareholders or stakeholders (for nonprofit organization, etc.), and create value value creation is not only passive assets security, it should also include the use of opportunity. Moreover, the threat of shareholder value comes not from the operator internal factors such as accounting frauds, including from the market risk, etc.Technology and market conditions, promote the new progress of internal controlto risk management. In advanced information technology conditions, accounting records realized the electronic control, real-time update, make traditional error-detection and prevent disadvantages accounting control seems outdated. However, the risk is often caused by trading or organization innovation, these innovation comes from emerging market practice, such as enron will energy trading large developed into similar financial derivatives trading. On the other hand, environmental protection and the enforcement of protection of consumer rights, strengthened the social responsibility of the enterprise, if an enterprise may have inadvertently, suffer from commodity market or capital market for the enterprise, and punish the performance brand value, or the capital market capitalisation put-downs. Therefore, the enterprise need a daily operation function and structure to guard against risks, including abide by laws and regulations, and ensure the trust of investors and ensure financial information management efficiency, etc. Therefore, from maintenance and promote this basic function value creation standpoint, risk management and internal control target is consistent, just in new technology and the market conditions, in order to effectively protect the interests of investors need in the basis of the development of internal control more active and more comprehensive risk management.4.From internal control to risk managementThere is a debate that risk management include internal control, or internal control contains risk management. The author thinks that what kind of conclusion that is not very important, the most important is to clear risk management and internal control of the relation between the superposition place. Who's wider, may be with time, technology, market conditions, legal and regulatory practice and different, for example, in the early development of internal control, market risk management tools and technology conditions are not fully (such as computer systems, statistics theory, quantity model, hedge tools and insurance etc.), then the internal control contains (alternative) risk management function is very natural. Even in the same era, different industry their emphasis may also different, for example, in the financial industry regulatory strict or involving the people's lives and health pharmacy and medical industry, the urgency of risk management, enterprise stronger with risk management leading internal control may be more convenient. And in some other enterprise, in order to comply with information disclosure requirements of internal control reports with the internal control system, enterprise for leading, give attention to two ormorethings risk management may be more suitable.Because of the internal control and risk management is the intrinsic relation, countries with different ways were gradually integrate internal control and risk management connected. January 8, 2004, China's relevant aspects held the "commercial bank risk management and internal control BBS", this shows that our banking also began to internal control and risk management connected.The Basel committee "issued by the banking group of internal control system framework said:" the board of directors approved and regularly check the overall strategy, and important system, understand the main risk, the bank for these risks setting acceptable level, ensure management to take necessary steps to identifying, measuring, supervision and control these risks..." Here, the risk management is obviously the content into the internal control framework. In the UK the FSA comprehensive standards (TheCombined Code) about the internal control regulation, it is first in official documents containing definitely in risk management in internal under control. This code is that the board should keep sound internal control system to protect shareholders investment and enterprise assets (principle d. 2). The board of directors at least once a year, and check the effectiveness of enterprise internal control systems, and to shareholders and report. Reports should include all the control, such as financial, management, follow control and risk management (d. 2.1). This rule is listed on the London stock exchange enterprise must abide by.Canadian association of certified accountants control standards committee (COCO) think "control should include risk identification and reduce the risk of", in which not only include the risk of achieving specific goals related, but also include general, if can't identify and took advantage of the opportunity, cannot make enterprise in the face of not anticipate events and uncertain information while maintaining flexibility or resilient. In 1992 the COSO internal control - in the whole framework will risk assessment of the internal control as one of the five elements, in the latest on the introduction of the "enterprise risk management framework" and further integrate internal control expanded to risk management, clearly put risk management include internal control.The author believes that in the actual business process, risk management and internal control is inseparable in rule or legislative process, consideration scope and control strength, the requirements, the greater the control range will be weaker. For its core problems, such as financial reporting accurate and reliable, the most suitable forlegislation to form to constraint, and other more broad content may be more suitable for rules and guidelines. The different levels of the enterprise internal risk management and internal control, the leading relative order can also be different, for example, from the enterprise strategic risk in turn to the management risk, financial risk, and finally to the financial report, risk management and internal control the relative importance should vary. In strategic risk, the risk management should play a leading role play complexation and internal control. This role reversal to financial report, gradually level, should play a leading role is the internal control, risk management play complexation.Despite the risk management and internal control an inner link, but the reality of or on behalf of the current application level of internal control and risk management and lots of gap. The typical risk management attention in particular business with strategic choice or business decisions related to compare the benefits and risks of, for example, banking credit management or market (price) risk management such as exchange rate, interest rate risk, etc. The typical internal control refers to accounting control, audit activities, are generally confined to financial related department. What they all have in common is low level, small range, confined to a few functional departments, and no penetration or applied in enterprise management process and the whole management system, therefore, sometimes looks risk management and internal control or independent of each other two things. Along with the internal control and risk management constantly improve and become more comprehensive, they inevitably overlapping and fusion between until unity.内部控制与风险管理周兆生1、内部控制———标准与立法1985年美国为了遏制日益猖獗的会计舞弊活动,成立了一个反财务舞弊委员会(Treadway委员会),调查导致会计舞弊活动的原因,并提出了解决方案。

商业银行信用卡风险管理外文文献翻译最新译文This article discusses the importance of credit risk management for commercial banks。

Credit risk is a major concern for banks as it can lead to XXX methods used by banks to manage credit risk。

including credit scoring。

credit limits。

and loanXXX to credit risk management。

The article XXX of credit risk to ensure the long-term XXXCredit risk management is a XXX to manage credit risk XXX。

it is essential for banks to adopt us methods to manage credit risk。

These methods include credit scoring。

credit limits。

and loanXXX are used to limit the amount of credit XXXXXX credit risk management。

The credit risk management department should work XXX departments。

such as lending and complianceXXX。

XXX that they are aware of the latest developments in credit risk management。

XXX of credit risk are critical for the long-term XXX that they are effective and up-to-date。

中英文资料翻译Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:1. Financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systemsWhat Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and strategies work to reduce riskwithin the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are traded widely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who seek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows:1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset’s riskiness, but also its contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio towhich it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result of risk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities for diversification, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks. Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails. Diversification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management’s control. Although the risk of loss still exists, diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk management process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for risk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it might bepossible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the organization’s exposure and risk. Alternatively, existing exposures may be managed with derivatives. Another strategy for managing risk is to accept all risks and the possibility of losses.There are three broad alternatives for managing risk:1. Do nothing and actively, or passively by default, accept all risks.2. Hedge a portion of exposures by determining which exposures can and should be hedged.3. Hedge all exposures possible.Measurement and reporting of risks provides decision makers with information to execute decisions and monitor outcomes, both before and after strategies are taken to mitigate them. Since the risk management process is ongoing, reporting and feedback can be used to refine the system by modifying or improving strategies.An active decision-making process is an important component of risk management. Decisions about potential loss and risk reduction provide a forum for discussion of important issues and the varying perspectives of stakeholders.Factors that Impact Financial Rates and PricesFinancial rates and prices are affected by a number of factors. It is essential to understand the factors that impact markets because those factors, in turn, impact the potential risk of an organization.Factors that Affect Interest RatesInterest rates are a key component in many market prices and an important economic barometer. They are comprised of the real rate plus a component for expected inflation, since inflation reduces the purchasing power of a lender’s assets .The greater the term to maturity, the greater the uncertainty. Interest rates are also reflective of supply and demand for funds and credit risk.Interest rates are particularly important to companies and governments because they are the key ingredient in the cost of capital. Most companies and governments require debt financing for expansion and capital projects. When interest rates increase, the impact can be significant on borrowers. Interest rates also affect prices in otherfinancial markets, so their impact is far-reaching.Other components to the interest rate may include a risk premium to reflect the creditworthiness of a borrower. For example, the threat of political or sovereign risk can cause interest rates to rise, sometimes substantially, as investors demand additional compensation for the increased risk of default.Factors that influence the level of market interest rates include:1、Expected levels of inflation2、General economic conditions3、Monetary policy and the stance of the central bank4、Foreign exchange market activity5、Foreign investor demand for debt securities6、Levels of sovereign debt outstanding7、Financial and political stabilityYield CurveThe yield curve is a graphical representation of yields for a range of terms to maturity. For example, a yield curve might illustrate yields for maturity from one day (overnight) to 30-year terms. Typically, the rates are zero coupon government rates.Since current interest rates reflect expectations, the yield curve provides useful information about the market’s expectations of future interest rates. Implied interest rates for forward-starting terms can be calculated using the information in the yield curve. For example, using rates for one- and two-year maturities, the expected one-year interest rate beginning in one year’s time can be determined.The shape of the yield curve is widely analyzed and monitored by market participants. As a gauge of expectations, it is often considered to be a predictor of future economic activity and may provide signals of a pending change in economic fundamentals.The yield curve normally slopes upward with a positive slope, as lenders/investors demand higher rates from borrowers for longer lending terms. Since the chance of a borrower default increases with term to maturity, lenders demand to be compensated accordingly.Interest rates that make up the yield curve are also affected by the expected rate of inflation. Investors demand at least the expected rate of inflation from borrowers, in addition to lending and risk components. If investors expect future inflation to be higher, they will demand greater premiums for longer terms to compensate for this uncertainty. As a result, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate (all else being equal), resulting in an upward-sloping yield curve.Occasionally, the demand for short-term funds increases substantially, and short-term interest rates may rise above the level of longer term interest rates. This results in an inversion of the yield curve and a downward slope to its appearance. The high cost of short-term funds detracts from gains that would otherwise be obtained through investment and expansion and make the economy vulnerable to slowdown or recession. Eventually, rising interest rates slow the demand for both short-term and long-term funds. A decline in all rates and a return to a normal curve may occur as a result of the slowdown.财务风险管理尽管近年来金融风险大大增加，但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。

中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)原文：Project Risk AnalysisChapter 1 Introduction1.1 About this compendiumThis course compendium is to be used in the course “Risikostyring is projector”. The focus will be on the following topics:• R isk identification• Risk structuring• Risk modeling in the light of a time schedule and a cost model• Risk follows upWe will also discuss elements related to decision analysis where risk is involved, and use of life cycle cost and life cycle profit models. The course compendium comprises a large number of exercises, and it is recommended to do most of the exercises in order to get a good understanding of the topics and methods described. A separate MS Excel program, pRisk.xls has been developed in order to assist numerical calculations and to conduct Monte Carlo simulation.1.2 DefinitionsAleatory uncertaintyVariation of quantities in a population. We sometimes use the word variability rather than aleatory uncertainty.Epistemic uncertaintyLack of knowledge about the “world”, and observable quantities in particular. DependencyThe relation between the sequences of the activities in a project.Observable quantityA quantity expressing a state of the “world”, i.e. a quantity of the p hysical reality or nature, that is unknown at the time of the analysis but will, if the system being analyzed is actually implemented, take some value in the future, and possibly become known. ParameterWe use the term parameter in two ways in this report. The main use of a parameter is that it is a quantity that is a part of the risk analysis models, and for which we assign numerical values. The more academic definition of a parameter used in a probabilitystatement about an observable quantity, X, is that a parameter is a construct where the value of the parameter is the limiting value where we are not able to saturate our understanding about the observable quantity X whatsoever new information we could get hold of. Parameter estimateThe numeric value we assess to a parameter.ProbabilityA measure of uncertainty of an event.RiskRisk is defined as the answer to the three questions [14]: i) what can go wrong? ii) How likely is it? And if it goes wrong, iii) what are the consequences? To describe the risk is a scenarioRisk acceptanceA decision to accept a risk.Risk acceptance criterionA reference by which risk is assessed to be acceptable or unacceptable.ScheduleA plan which specifies the start and finalization point of times for the activities in a project.Stochastic dependencyTwo or more stochastic variables are (stochastically) dependent if the expectation of one stochastic variable depends on the value of one or more of the other stochastic variables. Stochastic variableA stochastic variable, or random quantity, is a quantity for which we do not know the value it will take. However, we could state statistical properties of the variable or make probability statement about the value of the quantity.1.3 DEFINITIONSUncertaintyLack of knowledge about the performance of a system, and observable quantities in particular.Chapter 2Risk ManagementGenerally, risk management is defined (IEC 60300-3-9) as a “systematic application ofmanagement policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of analyzing, evaluating and controlling risk”. It will comprise (IEC definitions in parentheses):• Risk assessment, i.e.–Risk analysis (“Systematic use of available information to identify hazards and to estimate the r isk to individuals or populations, property or the environment”)–Risk evaluation (“Process in which judgments are made on the tolerability of the risk on the basis of risk analysis and taking into account factors such as socio-economic and environmental aspects”)• Risk reduction/control (Decision making, implementation and risk monitoring).There exists no common definition of risk, but for instance IEC 60300-3-9 defines risk as a “combination of the frequency, or probability, of occurrence and the consequence of a specified hazardous events”. Most definitions comprise the elements of probabilities and consequences. However, some as Klinke and Renn suggest a very wide definition, stating: “Risk refers to the possibility that human actions or events lead to consequences that affect aspects of what humans value”. So the total risk comprises the possibility of number (“all”)unwanted/hazardous events. It is part of the risk analysis to delimit which hazards to include. Further, risk usually refers to threats in the future, involving a (high) degree of uncertainty. In the following we will present the basic elements of risk management as it is proposed to be an integral part of project management.2.1 Project objectives and criteriaIn classical risk analysis of industrial systems the use of so-called risk acceptance criteria has played a central role in the last two or tree decades. Basically use of risk acceptance criteria means that some severe consequences are defined, e.g. accident with fatalities. Then we try to set an upper limit for the probability of these consequences that could be accepted, i.e. we could not accept higher probabilities in any situations. Further these probabilities could only be accepted if risk reduction is not possible, or the cost of risk reduction is very high.In recent years it has been a discussion in the risk analysis society whether it is fruitful or not to use risk acceptance criteria according to the principles above. It is argued that very often risk acceptance criteria are set arbitrary, and these do not necessarily support the overall best solutions. Therefore, it could be more fruitful to use some kind of risk evaluation criteria, rather than strict acceptance criteria. In project risk management we could establish acceptance criteria related to two types of events:• Events with severe consequences related to health, environment and safety.• Events with severe consequences related to project costs, project quality, project duration, oreven termination of the project. In this course we will have main focus on the project costs and the duration of the project. Note that both project cost and project duration are stochastic variables and not events. Thus it is not possible to establish acceptance criteria to project cost or duration directly. Basically, there are three types of numeric values we could introducein relation to such stochastic variables describing the project:1. Target. The target expresses our ambitions in the project. The target shall be something we are striving at, and it should be possible to reach the target. It is possible to introduce (internal) bonuses, or other rewards in order to reach the targets in a project.2. Expectation. The expectations are the value the stochastic variables will achieve in the long run, or our expectation about the outcome. The expectation is less ambitious than the target. The expectation will in a realistic way account for hazards, and threats and conditions which often contribute to the fact that the targets are not met.3. Commitment. The commitments are values related to the stochastic variables which are regulated in agreements and contracts. For example it could be stated in the contract that a new bridge shall be completed within a given date. If we are not able to fulfill the commitments, this will usually result in economical consequences, for example penalties for defaults, or in the worst case canceling of the contract.2.2 Risk identificationA scenario is a description of a imagined sequence or chain of events, e.g. we have a water leakage, and we are not able to stop this leakage with ordinary tightening medium due to the possible environmental aspects which is not clarified at the moment. Further the green movement is also likely to enter the scene in this case. A hazard is typically related to energies, poisonous media etc, and if they are released this will result in an accident or a severe event. A threat is a wider term than hazard, and we include also aspects as “wrong” method applied, “lack of competence and experience”. The term threat is also very often used in connection with security problems, e.g. sabotage, terrorism, and vandalism.2.3 Structuring and modeling of riskIn Section 2.2 we have identified methods to identify events and threats. We now want to relate these events and threats to the explicit models we have for project costs and project duration.2.3.1 Model for project execution time/schedule modelingWhen analyzing the execution time for a project we will have a project plan and typicallya Gantt diagram as a starting point. The Gantt diagram is transformed into a so-called flow network where the connections between the activities are explicitly described. Such a flow network also comprises description of duration of the activities in terms of probability statements. The duration of each activity is stochasticVariables, which we denote Ti for activity in a flow network we might also have uncertain activities which will be carried out only under special conditions. These conditions could be described in terms of events, and we need to describe the probability of occurrence of such events. Thus, there is a set of quantities, i.e. time variables and events in the model. The objective is now to link the undesired events and threats discussed in Section 2.2 to these time variables and events. Time variables are described by a probability distribution function. Such a distribution function comprises parameters that characterize the time variable. Often a parametric probability distribution is described by the three quantities L (low), M (most likely) and H high. If an undesired event occur, it is likely that the values of L, M and H will be higher than in case this event does not occur. A way to include the result from the risk identification process is then to express the different values of L, M and H depending on whether the critical event occurs or not. If we in addition are able to assess the probability of occurrence of the critical event, the knowledge about this critical event has been completely included into the risk model. Based on such an explicit modeling of the critical event, we could also easily update the model in case of new information about the critical event is obtained, for example new information could be available at a later stage in the process and changes of the plan could still be possible in light of the new information.2.3.2 Cost modelingThe cost model is usually based on the cost breakdown structure, and the cost elements will again be functions of labor cost, overtime cost, purchase price, hour cost of renting equipment, material cost, amount of material etc. The probabilistic modeling of cost is usually easier than for modeling project execution time. The principle is just to add a lot of cost terms, where each cost term is the product of the unit price and the number of units. We introduce price and volume as stochastic variables to describe the unit price and the number of units. The price and volume variables should also be linked to the undesired events and threats we have identified in Section 2.2. Often it is necessary to link the cost model to the schedule model. For example in case of delays it might be necessary to put more effort into the project to catch up with the problems, and these efforts could be very costly. Also, if the project is delayed we may need to pay extra cost to sub-contractors that have to postpone their support into the project.2.3.3 Uncertainty in schedule and cost modelingAs indicated above we will establish probabilistic models to describe the duration and cost of a project. The result of such a probabilistic modeling is that we treat the duration and cost as stochastic variables. Since duration and costs are stochastic variables, this means that there is uncertainty regarding the values they will take in the real project we are evaluating. Sometimes we split this uncertainty into three different categories, i) Aleatory uncertainty (variability due to e.g. weather conditions, labor conflicts, breakdown of machines etc.), ii) para meter or epistemic uncertainty due to lack of knowledge about “true” parameter values, and iii) model uncertainty due to lack of detailed, or wrong modeling. Under such thinking, the aleatory uncertainty could not be reduced; it is believed to be the result of the variability in the world which we cannot control. Uncertainty in the parameters is, however, believed to be reducible by collecting more information. Also uncertainty in the models is believed to be reducible by more detailed modeling, and decomposition of the various elements that go into the model. It is appealing to have a mental model where the uncertainty could be split into one part which we might not reduce (variability), and one part which we might reduce by thorough analysis and more investigation (increased knowledge). If we are able to demonstrate that the part of the uncertainty related to lack of knowledge and understanding has been reduced to a sufficient degree, we could then claim high confidence in the analysis. In some situation the owner or the authorities put forward requirements. Which could be interpreted as confidence regarding the quality of the analysis? It is though not always clear what is meant by such a confidence level. As an example, let E(C) be the expected cost of ap roject. A confidence statement could now be formulated as “The probability that the actual project cost is within an interval E(C) ± 10% should at least be 70%”. It is, however, not straight forward to document such a confidence level in a real analysis. T he “Successive process (trinnvisprosessen)” [4] is an attempt to demonstrate how to reduce the “uncertainty” in the result to a certain level of confidence.We also mention that Even [12] has recently questioned such an approach where there exist model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, and emphasizes that we in the analysis should focus on the observable quantities which will become evident for us if the project is executed, e.g. the costs, and that uncertainty in these quantities represent the lack of knowledge about which values they will take in the future. This discussion is not pursuit any more in this presentation.2.4 Risk elements for follow up: Risk and opportunity registerAs risk elements and threats are identified in Section 2.2 these have to be controlled as far as possible. It is not sufficient to identify these conditions and model them in the schedule and cost models, we also have to mitigate the risk elements and threats. In order to ensure a systematic follow up of risk elements and threats it is recommended to establish a so-called threat log. The terms ‟Risk Register…and ‟Risk & Opportunity Register…(R&OR) is sometimes used rather than the term ‟threat log.… A R&OR is best managed by a database solution, for example an MS-Access Database. Each row in the database represents one risk element or threat. The fields in such a database could vary, but the following fields seems reasonable: • ID. An identifier is required in order to keep track of the threat in relation to the quantitative risk models, to follow up actions ET.• Description. A description of the threat is necessary in order to understand the content of the problem. It could be necessary to state the immediate consequences (e.g. occupational accident), but also consequences in terms of the main objectives of the project, e.g. time and costs.• Likelihood or probability. A judgment regarding how probable it is that the threat or the risk condition will be released in terms of e.g. undesired or critical events.• Impact. If possible, give a direct impact on cost and schedule if the event occurs, either by an expected impact, or by L, M and H values.• References to cost and schedule. In order to update the schedule and cost models it is convenient to give an explicit reference from the R&OR into the schedule and cost models. • Manageability. Here it is descried how the threat could be influenced, either by implementing measures to eliminate the threat prior to it reveals it self, or measures in orderto reduce the consequences in case of the threat will materialize.• Alert information. It is important to be aware of information that could indicate the development of the threat before it eventually will materialize. If such information is available we could implement relevant measures if necessary. For example it could be possible to take ground samples at a certain cost, but utilizing the information from such samples could enable us to choose appropriate methods for tunnel penetration.• Measures. List of measures that could be implemented to reduce the risk.• Deadline and responsible. Identification of who is responsible for implementing and follow up of the measure or threat, and any deadlines.• Status. Both with respect to the threat and any measure it is valuable to specify the development, i.e. did the treat reveal it self into undesired events with unwanted consequences, did the measure play any positive effect etc.2.5 Correction and controlAs the project develops the R&OR is the primary control tool for risk follow up. By following the status of the various threats, risk elements and measures we could monitor the risk in the project. This information should of course be linked to the time and cost plans. If a given threat does not reveal in terms of undesired events, the time and cost estimates could be lowered and this gain could be utilized in other part of the project, or in other projects. In the opposite situation it is necessary to increase the time and cost estimates, and we need to consider new measures, and maybe spend some of the reserves to catch up in case of an expected delay. During the life cycle of a project it will occur new threats and risk elements which we did not foresee in the initial risk identification process. Such threats must continuously be entered into the R&OR, and measures need to be considered.一、介绍（一）关于本纲要本课程纲要过程中研究的是“风险也是一种项目”。

保险公司的风险管理策略分析【外文翻译】
保险公司面临着各种风险，如自然灾害、经济波动和投资风险等。

为了保护保险公司和保险人的利益，制定有效的风险管理策略
至关重要。

风险识别和评估
首先，保险公司需要识别和评估潜在的风险。

这可以通过分析
大数据和历史数据来实现。

保险公司可以利用风险模型和统计方法
来确定可能的损失情景，并评估其概率和影响程度。

风险多元化
保险公司采取多元化的风险管理策略可以减少损失的可能性。

多元化包括在不同地理区域、不同产品线和不同投资领域进行投保。

通过将风险分散到不同领域，保险公司可以降低整体风险。

建立储备基金
保险公司应建立充足的储备基金以应对不确定的损失。

这些储
备基金可以用于支付理赔和应对突发事件。

保险公司应根据实际风
险情况和业务规模来确定合适的储备基金规模。

制定合理的保费策略
保险公司应根据风险评估结果制定合理的保费策略。

保费应能
够覆盖预期的损失和成本，并提供合理的利润。

同时，保费应根据
不同风险等级和险种进行差异化定价，以反映不同风险的实际情况。

加强监管和合规
保险公司应遵守相关法规和监管要求，确保风险管理策略的合
规性。

加强内部监控和审计，定期评估风险管理策略的有效性，并
进行必要的修订和改进。

结论
保险公司的风险管理策略应综合考虑风险识别和评估、风险多
元化、储备基金建立、合理的保费策略以及监管和合规等因素。

通
过有效的风险管理策略，保险公司可以降低损失风险，保护保险人的利益，维护公司的稳定和可持续发展。