Shopaholics wanted
购物狂时代该来了？
Jun 25th 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
Can Asians replace Americans as a driver of global growth?
亚洲人能够代替美国人做全球经济的发动机吗？
ASIA'S emerging economies are bouncing back much more strongly than any others. While America's industrial production continued to slide in May, output in emerging Asia has regained its pre-crisis level (see chart 1). This is largely due to China; but although production in the region's smaller economies is still well down on a year ago, it is rebounding in those countries too. Taiwan's industrial output rose by an annualised 80% in the three months to May compared with the previous three months. JPMorgan estimates that emerging Asia's GDP has grown by an annualised 7% in the second quarter.
时下亚洲新兴经济体们的恢复势头比其他任何国家都要迅猛。在美国工业生产继续下滑的5月，亚洲新兴国家的产出已经回到了它们危机前的水平(见表一)。这很大程度上要归功于中国，此外尽管该地区较小经济体的生产比去年仍有所下降，但最近这些国家也在渐渐恢复。台湾截至5月的工业产出年度化增长较前三个月上升了80%。摩根大通预计二季度亚洲新兴经济体年度化增长率将达到7%。
Asia's ability to decouple from America reflects the fact that the region's downturn was caused only partly by the slump in American activity. In most Asian economies falling domestic demand was more important than the drop in net exports in explaining the collapse in GDP growth. The surge in food and energy prices in the first half of 2008 squeezed profits and spending power. Tighter monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation then further choked domestic demand.
亚洲与美国脱钩的能力说明该地区经济下滑只是部分由于美国经济活动的影响。大多数亚洲经济体内需下降要比净出口下降对经济影响更大，这就解释了GDP增长率暴跌的原因。2008年上半年食品和能源价格的暴涨让利润和消费能力双双缩减。从紧的货币政策旨在遏制通胀却进一步使得内需受到抑制。
The recent recovery in industrial production reflects the end of destocking by manufacturers as well as the large fiscal stimulus by most governments. But the boost from both of these factors will fade. Meanwhile, export markets in developed economies are likely to remain weak. So the recovery in Asian economies will stumble unless domestic spending, notably consumption, perks up.
近期工业生产的回复显示制造商产品积压的状况正在结束，同时多国政府大规模经济刺激计划也已起效。但是这些原因造成的增长终会消失，同时面向发达经济体的出口市场看上去依旧疲软。因此除非让内需，尤其是让消费振作起来，否则亚洲经济体的回复之路依旧前途坎坷。
Consumers' appetite to spend v
aries hugely across the region. In China, India and Indonesia spending has increased by annual rates of more than 5% during the global downturn. China's retail sales have soared by 15% over the past year. This overstates the true growth rate because it includes government purchases, but official household surveys suggest that real spending is growing at a still-impressive rate of 9%. In the year to May, sales of household electronics were up by 12%, clothing by 22% and cars by a stunning 47%.
消费者消费的胃口在这一地区有着巨大的差异性。中国、印度和印尼在全球经济下滑期间消费额年度化增长率超过了5%。中国的零售销售额去年暴增了15%,但这个数字是被夸大的,因为它包括了政府采购的花销,但是官方的家庭调查显示真实的消费增长率依然达到了令人印象深刻的9%。今年截至五月，家用电器销售增长12%，服装销售增长22%而汽车销售增长则达到了惊人的47%。
Elsewhere in the region, spending has stumbled, squeezed by higher unemployment and lower wages. In Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea real consumer spending was 4-5% lower in the first quarter than a year earlier, a much bigger drop than in America. But Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC, sees tentative signs that spending is picking up. Taiwan's retail sales rose in May for the third consecutive month. Department-store sales in South Korea rose by 5% in the year to May.
该地区其它地方由于受增高的失业率和工资水平下降的影响，消费增长步履蹒跚。香港、新加坡和韩国一季度真实消费较去年下降了4-5%，这比美国的情况还要糟糕。但是汇丰银行的经济学家弗雷德里希-纽曼认为，当下消费止跌上升的趋势已初露端倪。台湾的零售业销售额到五月为止已连续3月上升。韩国百货商场销售额到五月为止也上升了5%。
It is often argued that emerging Asian economies have large current-account surpluses-and are thus not pulling their fair weight in the world-because consumers like to save rather than spend. Yet this does not really fit the facts. During the past five years consumer spending in emerging Asia has grown by an annual average of 6.5%, much faster than in any other part of the world. It is true that consumption has fallen as a share of GDP, but that is because investment and exports have grown even faster, not because spending has been weak. Relative to American consumer spending, Asian consumption has soared (see chart 2).
人们通常认为新兴亚洲经济体有着大量的国际收支经常项目顺差，而这却并不能使它们在世界贸易中占有应有的比重，因为亚洲的消费者倾向储蓄多过消费。但这却并不真正符合事实，在过去五年中崛起的亚洲国家消费年均增长率达到了6.5%，这要比世界上任何其他地区都要快。消费占GDP比重确实下降了，但这并不表明消费减弱，而
是因为投资和出口增长的更快。与美国消费相比，亚洲消费是暴增了。
In most Asian economies, private consumption is 50-60% of GDP, which is not out of line with rates in countries at similar levels of income elsewhere. China, however, is an exception. Private consumption there fell from 46% of GDP in 2000 to only 35% last year-half that in America. In dollar terms, spending is only one-sixth of that in America. (Singapore's consumption is also low, at just under 40% of GDP.)
在大多数亚洲经济体中，个人消费占GDP的50-60%，这个数字并不比收入水平相同的其他任何地方低。然而中国是个例外。个人消费占GDP从2000年的46%下降到了去年的35%，这个数字才是美国的一半。以美元结算的话，消费只有美国的六分之一。(新加坡的消费也很低，不足GDP的40%)
This explains why China's government has recently taken bolder action than others to boost consumption. Over the past six months the government in Beijing has introduced a host of incentives to encourage households to open their wallets. Rural residents get subsidies for buying vehicles and other goods such as televisions, refrigerators, computers and mobile phones; urban residents get a subsidy if they trade in cars and home appliances for new goods; tax rates on low-emission cars have also been cut. There is huge potential for higher consumption in the countryside as incomes rise: only 30% of rural households have a refrigerator, for example, compared with virtually all urban households.
这也解释了中国政府为何最近比任何国家都大力促进消费。在过去6个月中北京政府颁布一揽子激励政策来鼓励家庭打开他们的钱包。农村居民得到了购买车辆和电视、冰箱、电脑以及手机等商品的政策倾斜；城市居民则得到了购买汽车和家电换新方面的政策倾斜；小排量汽车的税率也被下调。随着农村收入增加，消费上升有着巨大潜力：与城市家庭近乎每家一台相比，只有30%的农村家庭拥有电冰箱。
The government has also introduced several measures this year to improve the social safety net, such as spending more on health care, pensions and payments to low-income households. On June 19th it ordered all state-owned firms that had listed on the stockmarket since 2005 to transfer 10% of their shares to the National Social Security Fund to shore up its assets. The short-term impact is likely to be modest but if such measures ease households' worries about future pensions and health care, it could in the long term encourage them to save less and spend more.
政府也在今年颁布了几项举措改善社保网络，比如对医疗卫生领域加大投入、向低收入家庭发放养老金和收入补助。6月19日还命令2005年以来的国有上市公司向国家社保基金转让10%的股份，以稳固后者资产。虽然看起来短期效果有限，但是如果这一系
列举措能够缓解家庭对未来养老金和医疗问题的担忧，长远的看还是能鼓励人们存得更少花得更多的。
Another way to boost consumption is to make it easier to borrow. In most Asian economies household debt is less than 50% of GDP, compared with around 100% in many developed economies; in China and India it is less than 15%. South Korea is the big exception: households have as much debt relative to their income as Americans and their saving rate has fallen over the past decade from 18% of disposable income to only 4%. In many other Asian economies financing for consumer durables is virtually nonexistent. Promisingly, the Chinese bank regulator announced draft rules in May to allow domestic and foreign institutions to set up consumer-finance firms to offer personal loans for consumer-goods purchases.
另一个刺激消费的方法是让借贷更容易。多数亚洲国家家庭借贷不足GDP的50%，与此对比发达经济体这个数字在100%左右；在中国和印度则更是少于15%。韩国却是个特例：与美国一样，家庭举债和他们收入一样多，储蓄率也已经在过去十年中从可支配收入的18%下降到了只有4%。在其他亚洲经济体中面向耐用消费品的金融服务事实上是不存在的。幸运的是，中国银监机构已经在5月宣布了一些规则草案，允许中外机构建立消费金融公司为消费者购买商品提供个人贷款。
These measures are a modest step in the right direction. But a bigger test of Asian governments' resolve to shift the balance of growth from exports towards domestic spending is whether they will allow their exchange rates to rise. A revaluation would lift consumers' real purchasing power and give firms reason to shift resources towards producing for the domestic market. But so far, policymakers have been reluctant to let currencies rise too fast.
这些措施只不过是正确方向上有限的一小步。但亚洲各国政府想要将增长平衡由出口向内需转变的更大实验能否成功将取决于它们是否允许本国货币汇率上升。这种再估价将会提升消费者的实际消费能力，并让企业有理由转移资源为国内市场生产商品。但迄今为止，政策制定者们都不情愿让货币升值太快。
Asian spending is already an important engine of global growth. Even before the crisis, emerging Asia's consumer spending contributed slightly more (in absolute dollar terms) to the growth in global demand than did America's. But it could be even bigger if Asians enjoyed the full fruits of their hard labour, rather than subsidising Western consumers through undervalued currencies. It is time for an even greater shift in spending power from the West to the East.
亚洲的消费已经是世界经济增长的重要引擎。甚至在危机之前，亚洲新兴经济体的消费者对全球经济增长的贡献也要比美国消费者稍大一点点(在完全以美元作为
结算单位的前提下)。而如果亚洲人能够充分享用他们辛勤劳动的果实，而不是通过低估本国货币补贴西方消费者的话，这种作用将会更明显。现在是将消费能力从西向东做更大转移的时候了。
The regulatory rumble begins
大张旗鼓的金融监管改革开始了
May 28th 2009 | BERLIN AND NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
In America and Europe, new rules are already running into stiff resistance-mostly from regulators themselves
在美国和欧洲，新的监管制度已经在遭受严重的抵制–而大部分的抵制来自监管者本身
“YOU want to move at the point where people still have the memory of the trauma,” Tim Geithner explained recently when asked about financial regulation. Aware that the crisis is moving into a new phase, with the emphasis shifting from firefighting to working out how supervision should be restructured, America's treasury secretary wants to seize the moment. He plans to unveil a comprehensive regulatory overhaul by mid-June. Barack Obama has said he wants to sign the changes into law by the year's end.
最近，在被问及金融监管问题时盖特纳解释道：“在民众仍然对伤痛记忆深刻的时候你是想要做出改变的”。在意识到危机已经进行到一个新的阶段，并且在一直强调要从救火队员转变到制定出监管应该如何改革时，美国财政部想要把握住时机。盖特纳计划在六月中旬开始对金融监管进行一项彻头彻尾的改革。巴拉克-奥巴马说过他希望在年底前将监管改革签署为正式法案。
In Europe, too, the pressure is on. “There's no room for more delays,” José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, said on May 27th when he unveiled a blueprint for reform of financial supervision. He announced plans to form two new grandly named institutions: a European Systemic Risk Council, which is supposed to provide early warning of possible risks, and a European System of Financial Supervisors, which would be a super-committee of regulators from across the European Union.
欧洲也面临着同样的压力。在5月27号公布一份金融监管改革的蓝本时，欧盟主席巴罗佐称：“已经没有耽搁的余地了”他宣布计划成立两个名字响当当的机构：一个是欧洲系统风险理事会，希望它能就可能出现的风险提供早期警示，另一个是欧洲金融监管者系统，这应该是一个汇集了全欧盟监管者的超级委员会。
The goals of the two new institutions are admirable. Both are intended to correct a fundamental flaw in European bank regulation and supervision; namely, that although banks are free to operate across borders, they are supervised only by their home countries. Slack oversight by one country can, as the crisis has revealed, spread chaos across many. Yet it is not at all clear that the proposals have been thought through properly. “The
European Commission is confusing speed with haste,” says Nicolas Véron of Bruegel, a think-tank in Brussels. “The governance, mandate and funding of these new authorities is not really addressed.” Britain, which has the biggest banking centre, is particularly concerned about the proposed rules, which may cede aspects of the City of London's banking supervision to Brussels.
成立这两个机构的初衷是很好的。二者都倾向于修正欧洲银行制度和监管的基础法案；也就是说，尽管银行可以自由的进行跨境操作，但是他们只受本国政府的监管。就像危机所揭示的那样，一个国家的疏忽会将混乱延伸到其它很多国家。然而，这项计划的可能性有没有被考虑过还不清楚。“欧盟委员会将速度和草率搞混淆了”布鲁塞尔的一家咨询业巨头Bruegel的Nicolas Véron说道，“这些新的权力机构的管理方法，授权以及资金来源都还没有真正的安排好”拥有最大的银行中心的英国尤其关心被提及的这些制度，因为它们可能会将伦敦城银行的部分监管权转交给布鲁塞尔。
In America, meanwhile, the plans taking shape face resistance, partly from the bankers they will shackle but even more from regulators and lawmakers. Bankers accept they will be forced to build up bigger capital buffers, which will crimp profitability, and that the liquidity of their balance-sheets will be policed more intensively. The regulatory net will be cast over the “shadow” banking network of hedge funds, money-market funds and the like, to which much financial activity gravitated during the boom.
同时，在美国，监管制度的改革遭遇了严酷的正面抵制，抵制部分来自会被束缚的银行家，但是来自监管者和法律制定者的抵制甚至更猛烈。银行家可以接受今后被强制要求设立更大的资本金缓冲，虽然这样可以抑制其收益率，他们也能接受更强的针对资产负债平衡表流动性的管辖。监管网络会覆盖到涉及对冲基金的灰色银行体系，货币市场基金等等诸如此类在繁荣时期吸引了大量金融行为的方面。
Big banks, however, still have enough lobbying power to ensure that not every decision goes against them. True, they are still licking their wounds after the recent passage of draconian credit-card reforms. But they are happier with the government's proposals on derivatives, under which dealers will be able to continue peddling customised swap contracts away from exchanges, albeit with a higher capital charge.
然而，大型的银行仍然具有足够的游说能力来确保并非每一项改革决议都是针对他们的。的确，在经历了最近针对信用卡的严酷改革后他们还处在舔舐伤口的阶段。但是政府关于衍生品的改革提议令银行家们感到很高兴，尽管该提议要求的资本金充足率更高，但是在这一提议下证券商可以继续
在交易所外兜售按客户特定需求制定的掉期交易合同。
As the crisis has deepened, American bankers have tempered their opposition to the idea of new rules that reduce the chances of another blow-up. “Would I accept regulation that slows innovation a bit and knocks three percentage points off my returns if it promised greater stability? Absolutely,” says the head of one large bank.
随着危机的加深，美国的银行家们为监管者想到了一个办法：制定新的制度来减少危机再次大面积爆发的可能性。一家大银行的行长称：“我会接受一项将创新速度略微减慢并且会减少我3%收入的制度吗？如果这种新的制度承诺带来更大的稳定性的话，我当然会接受。”
For some, more stringent regulation even has a silver lining. With tougher mortgage rules, banks will no longer have to lower their standards to compete with the industry's unregulated parts. The survivors could also benefit from higher barriers to entry.
对一些人来说，更严谨的监管制度甚至可以带来黑暗中的一丝曙光。在更加苛刻的贷款条件下，银行再都不能为了迎合企业的非监管部分而降低自己的借款标准。银行界的幸存者们还可以从更加高的准入门槛中获益。
On the whole, Wall Street sees a welcome disconnect between the Obama administration's rhetoric and its actions. The Treasury is “gradually learning” how to square the circle of showing that it understands the public's anger on the one hand, and maintaining a dynamic financial sector on the other, says one bank lobbyist. Another test of its capacity to resist pitchfork-wielding urges will come in the next few weeks, when it is expected to issue guidelines on executive pay.
从整体来看，华尔街经历了奥巴马班组的言行不一。一位银行说客称：“财政部正在逐渐的学习如何一方面做一些自己力不能及的事情以表示他们能够理解政府的愤怒，另一方面维持一个生机勃勃的财政部门”.另外一项针对其顶住权利机构催促能力的测试会在接下来几周公布，也就是财政部公布高管薪资制度的时候。
The stiffest resistance to change is coming not from Wall Street but from Washington, DC, where government officials, regulators and congressional leaders are locked in turf wars and ideological battles. “Opinion has splintered. Everyone is fighting everyone,” says Bert Ely, a consultant on regulatory issues.
对监管制度改革最顽强的抵制并不是来自华尔街而是来自华盛顿，华盛顿的政府官员，监管者和国会领导人们正深陷在地位之争和意识形态斗争中。监管制度方面的咨询专家Bert Ely称：“关于改革的观点被搞得七零八落，每个人都在反对每一个观点”。
Even the main banking agencies are at odds with each other. Sheila Bair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC. and John Du
gan, the Comptroller of the Currency, have fallen out over Ms Bair's deposit-insurance reforms. Mr Dugan also opposes the FDIC's push for sole authority to liquidate failing non-banks, as it already does with banks.
即使是主要的银行机构间意见也不一致。联邦储蓄保险公司的Sheila Bair和财政部金融局的John Dugan曾就Bair先生提出的储蓄保险改革的想法展开过争论。同样，Dugan先生也反对联邦储蓄保险公司推行的对衰退的非银行机构进行清算的单一职权主张，这一主张曾经运用在银行机构身上。
Worse, there is no consensus on the proposed systemic-risk regulator, which would identify and act on emerging “macro-prudential” dangers. The administration wants the Fed to assume the role, but many in Congress oppose this. Dick Shelby, an influential senator, has accused Mr Geithner of using the crisis to hand the Fed unacceptable levels of power. Meanwhile, Ms Bair has suggested that systemic regulation be done (or at least overseen) by a multi-agency council, an idea that is gaining traction even if others (including, again, Mr Dugan) worry that such supervision-by-committee is a recipe for inaction.
更糟的是，各方还没有就系统风险监管达成一致意见，而这项监管可以识别并作用于还处在萌芽状态的会对宏观经济产生重大影响的危险。管理者希望联储能扮演这一角色，但是国会的很多人士反对这样的提议。一位具有影响力的参议员Dick Shelby曾经指控盖特纳借危机之际给予了联储过多令人无法接受的权利。同时，Bair先生建议由一家综合机构理事会来执行(或者至少是监督)系统监管，尽管包括许多人Dugan在内的许多人担心这样的监管委员会会引发无作为，但是Bair先生的建议还是很具有吸引力。
An even bigger battle is brewing over the shake-up of existing regulators. No one doubts that the archaic, overlapping patchwork of agencies needs modernising, with regulation refocused on a firm's activities rather than its legal form. Reportedly, the White House is considering rolling the four banking-supervision agencies into one, though the idea is still in flux.
针对现有监管的革新而展开的更大的一场争论正在酝酿中。各机构之间陈旧的相互重叠的链接需要通过将重心重新转移到公司行为上而非其法律形式来进行革新，这一点毋庸置疑。据称，白宫正在考虑将四家银行监管机构合并成一家，尽管这一想法变数还很大。
But an embryonic plan to create a super-regulator for consumer products, such as mortgages, credit cards and mutual funds, is already encountering stiff opposition. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC., which would lose out in such a shuffle, has powerful friends on Capitol Hill, especially on the Senate banking committee that oversees the agency-and any overhaul would require congressional approval. Pub
lic pension funds have also joined together to lobby against a reduction in the SEC's power.
针对诸如贷款，信用卡和共同基金这样的消费者产品成立一个超级监管机构的计划还处在萌芽状态就已经遭到了强烈的抵制。在这轮洗牌中会惨遭重创的美国证券交易委员会同美国国会尤其是负责对其进行监管的参议员银行委员会之间有着深刻的友谊，而任何一项革新都是需要国会点头的。公共抚恤基金也加入到了削减SEC权利的游说中。
Moreover, the economically rational may not be politically feasible. Though it would make sense to merge the SEC with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates derivatives, Congress's powerful agriculture committee would probably block the move.
此外，经济学上合理的东西在政治层面上可能并不具有执行力。尽管将SEC和商品期货交易委员会合并在监管衍生品上确实有意义，但是在国会权势巨大的农业特别委员会可能会阻碍这样的变革。
Debate about other thorny issues, such as what restrictions to place on, or whether to dismantle, banks that are too big to fail has barely begun. Congressional leaders cannot even agree on whether to pass new rules in pieces or roll them up into one mega-bill.
在其他一些几首的问题上，争论才刚刚开始，例如：针对那些规模太大从而表现不好的银行，该执行什么样的制约或是是否要拆分一些银行。国会领导们甚至在是否要逐一的通过新制度还是将所有的制度都揉成一个巨无霸的法案上都无法达成共识。
All of which explains why pundits now expect to see few, if any, further financial reforms passed in 2009. Delay could play into the financial industry's hands, to the extent that it reduces the likelihood of heat-of-the-moment laws like Sarbanes-Oxley, rushed through after the Enron scandal. But if measures that would increase stability fall victim to politics, everyone will be worse off.
所有这些都能用来解释为什么权威人士预计09年可以通过的新的金融监管制度(如果有的话)是凤毛麟角。金融监管改革的姗姗来迟会正中金融业下怀，同时会达到像当年的萨班斯?奥克斯利法案一样轰动一时的效果，萨班斯?奥克斯利法案是在安然公司丑闻后仓促制定的。但是，如果一项本可以提高稳定性的措施沦为政治受害者的话，所有人的处境都会变得更糟糕。
经济学人杂志双语阅读：New York's new casino纽约市新的赌场
New York's new casino
纽约市新的赌场
A break at last
最后的突破
Jun 11th 2009 | SOUTHAMPTON, NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
An Indian tribe moves closer to federal recognition and to gambling
印第安人部落更接近联邦政府的认可和赌博业
MOST New Yorkers are aware that Peter Minuit bought Manhattan from the local Indians for $24-worth of be
ads and trinkets in 1626. Some know Broadway is a former Indian trail, and that neighbourhoods, like Canarsie and Maspeth, are named for tribes long gone. Few realise, though, that there is an 800-acre (324-hectare) Indian reservation virtually on New York City's doorstep in Southampton, a town in the posh Hamptons. This beach area is where New York's rich have their summer homes. But unlike their wealthy neighbours, who come via high-end realtors, the Shinnecock Indian Nation say they are the children of a goddess who caused the land to form beneath her feet.
大多数纽约人都知道，曼哈顿是Peter Minuit在1626年用价值$24的珠子和饰物买来的。一些人知道百老汇是是以前印第安人部落的小路，例如Canarsie和Maspeth是以消失很久的印第安人部落的名字命名的。虽然很少人知道有一个800英亩(324公顷)印第安的储备用地，这块地坐落在纽约市门口,美丽的Hamptons的一个镇。这个海滩区是纽约富人们的避暑天堂。但不像他们富裕的邻居一样，来到这里居住通过购买豪宅，辛纳科克印第安人的传说是，他们是创造她脚下土地的女神的后代。
Even though the Shinnecocks are the oldest self-governing tribe in America and have been recognised by New York state since colonial times, they have struggled since 1978 to be federally recognised. The tribe moved a step closer on May 26th when a federal judge ruled that the Department of the Interior must make a decision by December 15 th. The tribe meets the necessary criteria, so it could have federal status by mid 2010. Gordell Wright, one of the tribe's three elected trustees, observes most New Yorkers think of Indians in historical terms; but “we are here and our problems are contemporary,” he says. Housing is the biggest. Because members do not individually own the land on the reservation, they are not eligible for mortgages or building loans. Often several generations of a family live in one house. Others live in trailers. Federal recognition will give the tribe access to loans from the Housing and Urban Development department.
即使Shinnecocks部落是美国最古来的自治部落，并自殖民时代以来他们已被纽约州认可，自1978年以来他们一直争取得到联邦政府的承认。部落更接近这一目标，在5月26日一名联邦法官裁定，内政部必须在12月15日作出裁决。部落符合必要的标准，以致到2010年中旬它得到联邦地位。 Gordell Wright,三个部落当选受托人之一，指出大多数纽约人了解印第安人在历史的层面，但“我们在这里,我们的问题是当代的， ”他说。住房是最大问题。因为部落成员不单独拥有保留土地，他们没有资格获得抵押贷款或建设贷款。常常一家几代人生活在同一个房子。其他人生活在拖车里。联邦承诺Shinnecocks部落将获由住房和城市发展部提供的贷款。
With federal recognition
will come new powers. The tribe will be able to pass and enforce laws through its own police department and court system. It will be able to collect taxes. And it will be able to enter the gambling business. The Shinnecock Nation would like to open a Class III gambling facility-one with slot machines and casino games and tables. It is unlikely its Southampton neighbours would go for a casino in their posh town, so the tribe will probably look elsewhere. The Belmont Racetrack, on the border with Queens, is one hot contender. But any site not on the reservation will need state and federal approval. Federal recognition will be a big help with that.
联邦政府的承诺将带来新的权力。该部落将能通过自己的警察部门和法院系统审议和执行法律。部落将能够收税。甚至将来能够进入赌博业。辛纳科克民族想新建第三类赌博设施如:老虎机和赌博游戏和表格。这不像它的邻居那样在他们美丽的镇子里赌博，因此该部落将目光转移到其他地方。在皇后区的边界上的Belmont Racetrack是一个热门的竞争者。但是不再保留用地上的选址将需要州政府和联邦政府的批准。联邦许可将对此非常有益。
The United States of Entrepreneurs
创业家合众国
Mar 12th 2009
From The Economist print edition
America still leads the world
美国仍然引领世界
FOR all its current economic woes, America remains a beacon of entrepreneurialism. Between 1996 and 2004 it created an average of 550,000 small businesses every month. Many of those small businesses rapidly grow big. The world's largest company, Wal-Mart, was founded in 1962 and did not go public until a decade later; multi-million dollar companies such as Google and Facebook barely existed a decade ago.
尽管有目前的经济危机，美国依旧是创业精神的领航者。1996至2004年间，该国月均有55万个小公司成立，其中很多成长迅速。当世最大的公司-沃尔玛成立于1962年，自成立后近十年才上市。而诸如谷歌和FACEBOOK这种资产数百万美元的公司十年前才刚见雏形。
America was the first country, in the late 1970 s, to ditch managerial capitalism for the entrepreneurial variety. After the second world war J. K. Galbraith was still convinced that the modern corporation had replaced “the entrepreneur as the directing force of the enterprise with management”. Big business and big labour worked with big government to deliver predictable economic growth. But as that growth turned into stagflation, an army of innovators, particularly in the computer and finance industries, exposed the shortcomings of the old industrial corporation and launched a wave of entrepreneurship.
70年代后期，美国是抛弃管理资本主义而采用创业多样化的第一个国家。第二次世界大战后，J. K. Galbraith仍然坚信现代企业已经取代了“企业家作为企业管理的控制力”。大公司和大
量劳动力与大政府配合产生了可预见的经济增长。但当这种增长变成了滞涨时，改革群体，特别是计算机和金融业的革新者们揭示了那些老旧工业企业的缺陷并掀起了创业的新浪潮。
America has found the transition to a more entrepreneurial economy easier than its competitors because entrepreneurialism is so deeply rooted in its history. It was founded and then settled by innovators and risk-takers who were willing to sacrifice old certainties for new opportunities. American schoolchildren are raised on stories about inventors such as Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Edison. Entrepreneurs such as Andrew Carnegie and Henry Ford are celebrated in monuments all over the place. One of the country's most popular television programmes, currently being recycled as a film, features the USS Enterprise boldly going where no man had gone before.
美国人发现，较竞争对手而言，他们更易过渡到创业型经济，原因是因为创业精神如此深深扎根于美国的历史之中。这种理念为那些愿意为新机会而打破陈规旧矩的创新者和冒险者们所挖掘并吸收。伴随美国学童成长的是本杰明?富兰克林和托马斯?爱迪生这类发明家的故事。人们四处为安德鲁?卡耐基和亨利?福特这样的企业家树碑褒扬。近期美国最受欢迎之一的电视节目被翻拍成电影，描写了美国企业号航母勇于探索那些人类未知之地。
If anything, America's infatuation with entrepreneurialism has deepened further of late. People like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs have all the upsides of Carnegie and Ford without the downsides-the useful products and the open-handed philanthropy without the sweatshops and the massacres. Preachers style themselves as pastorpreneurs. Business books sell in their millions. “When I was in college, guys usually pretended they were in a band,” comments one observer. “Now they pretend they are in a start-up.”
如果有什么区别的话，那就是近期美国对创业精神的醉心程度大大加深。诸如比尔?盖茨、史蒂夫?乔布斯等人与卡耐基、福特等人成就不相上下，而并无前人的不足-有用的产品和慷慨的慈善事业，却没有血汗工厂与专横的裁员。“传教士将自己塑造为精神先知”。关于商业的书籍销量数以百万，一位书评人说：“当我上大学的时候，大家一般都自称自己是乐队成员，而现在他们自称在创业”。
Advantage America
有优势的美国
American companies have an unusual freedom to hire and fire workers, and American citizens have an unusual belief that, for all their recent travails, their fate still lies in their own hands. They are comfortable with the risk-taking that is at the heart of entrepreneurialism. The rewards for success can be huge-Google's Mr Brin was a billionaire by the time he was 30-and the punishments for failure are often trivial. In some countri
es bankruptcy spells social death. In America, particularly in Silicon Valley, it is a badge of honour.
在雇佣和解雇员工上，美国公司有不同寻常的自由，美国民众也有着不同寻常的信念：尽管辛苦，他们的命运仍掌握在他们自己手中，他们对创业精神核心的“冒险性”习以为常。成功的回报是巨大的-GOOGLE的创始人之一Brin在30岁时已成为亿万富翁，而失败的惩罚则往往微不足道。在一些国家，破产意味着社会性死亡，而在美国，特别是在硅谷，失败则是荣耀的勋章。
America also has several structural advantages when it comes to entrepreneurship. The first is the world's most mature venture-capital industry. America's first venture fund, the American Research and Development Corporation, was founded in 1946; today the industry has an unrivalled mixture of resources, expertise and customers. Highland Capital Partners receives about 10,000 plausible business plans a year, conducts about 1,000 meetings followed by 400 company visits and ends up making 10-20 investments a year, all of which are guaranteed to receive an enormous amount of time and expertise. IHS Global Insight, a consultancy, calculates that in 2005 companies that were once backed by venture capitalists accounted for nearly 17% of America's GDP and 9% of private-sector employment.
当提到创业的时候，美国还具有一些结构性优势。首先是具有世界最成熟的创业资本产业，美国的第一支创业基金：美国研究与开发公司成立于1946年。至今该行业已经拥有资源、技术和客户的完美组合。高原资本每年接受1万个左右的合理化商业计划书，召集大概1000次会议，有400家公司参加并最终确定10-20个投资项目，所有这些都被保证能够负担大量的时间和技术。顾问公司IHS Global Insight计算出2005全年曾有过创业资本支持的项目总额接近美国GDP总量的17%，从业人员占私营经济总人数的9%。
The second advantage is a tradition of close relations between universities and industry. America's universities are economic engines rather than ivory towers, with proliferating science parks, technology offices, business incubators and venture funds. Stanford University gained around $200 m in stock when Google went public. It is so keen on promoting entrepreneurship that it has created a monopoly-like game to teach its professors how to become entrepreneurs. About half of the start-ups in the Valley have their roots in the university.
第二个优势在于大学与产业密切联系的传统。在激增的科学院所、技术中心、企业孵化器、创业基金的助推下，美国大学更是经济的发动机，而不是象牙塔。谷歌上市时，斯坦福大学在股市中赚取了2亿美元。该大学热衷发扬创业精神，甚至创造了一种“强手棋”来教育自己的教授们如何成为企业家。硅谷大概有
一半的创业都可以从大学追根溯源。
The third advantage is an immigration policy that, historically, has been fairly open. Vivek Wadhwa, of Duke University, notes that 52% of Silicon Valley start-ups were founded by immigrants, up from around a quarter ten years ago. In all, a quarter of America's science and technology start-ups, generating $52 billion and employing 450,000 people, have had somebody born abroad as either their CEO or their chief technology officer. In 2006 foreign nationals were named as inventors or co-inventors in a quarter of American patent applications, up from 7.6% in 1998.
第三个优势是从历史来看，美国有相当开放的移民政策。杜克大学的Vivek Wadhwa指出在硅谷52%的创业项目由移民创建，而10年前该数字仅有大概25%。那些由非美国本土出生人员担任总裁或首席技术官的科学和技术创业项目占到总数的25%，提供了520亿美元的产出和45万个就业机会。与1998年的7.6%相比，2006年有25%的专利申请授予外国国民发明人或合伙发明人称号。
Amar Bhidé, of Columbia University, suggests a fourth reason for America's entrepreneurial success-“venturesome consumers”. Americans are unusually willing to try new products of all sorts, even if it means teaching themselves new skills and eating into their savings; they are also unusually willing to pester manufacturers to improve their products. Apple sold half a million iPhones in its first weekend.
哥伦比亚大学的Amar Bhidé提出美国创业精神成功的第四个原因是“敢于冒险的客户”。美国人超乎寻常地乐于尝试所有的新产品，即使他们需要重新自学新的技能(才能操作新产品)及需要耗费自己储蓄资金(来使用新产品)。，他们还乐于不厌其烦地促使生产商改进产品。苹果公司在Iphone上市的第一周就销售了50万个。
America faces numerous threats to this remarkable entrepreneurial ecology. The legal system can be burdensome, even destructive. One of the biggest new problems comes from “patent trolls”-lawyers who bring cases against companies for violating this or that trumped-up patent. Because the tax system is so complicated, many companies have to devote a lot of time and ingenuity to filling out tax forms that could be better spent on doing business. And the combination of the terrorist attacks on America on September 11th 2001 and rising xenophobia is making the country less open to immigrants.
美国卓越的创业生态面临着众多的威胁：法律系统成为了累赘，甚至具有破坏性。最大的新问题之一来自于“专利钓饵者”-这行律师专事起诉那些侵犯了某项“虚设专利”的公司；由于税收系统的复杂，许多公司必须投入本应用于公司业务的大量时间和技巧来填报纳税申报表格。再加上911事件与仇外情绪上涨的综合影响，使得美国对移民的开放度下降。
Today
more than 1 m people are waiting in line to be granted legal status as permanent residents. Yet only 85,000 visas a year are allocated to the sort of skilled workers the economy needs, and there are caps of 10,000 on the number of visas available for applicants from any one country, so the wait for people from countries with the largest populations, such as India and China, is close to six years.
目前，超过100万人正在排队等候获得合法的永久居住权，然而每年只有8.5万个签证被分配给那些经济发展所需要的技术人员。同时，接受来自同一国家的签证申请人数上限仅为1万人。也就是说，那些来自于人口最多的国家，如印度和中国的申请人需要等待将近6年的时间。
Yet despite these problems, America plays a vital role in spreading the culture of entrepreneurialism around the world. People the world over admire its ability to produce world-changing entrepreneurs, such as Bill Gates, wealth-creating universities, such as Harvard and Stanford, and world-beating clusters, such as Silicon Valley. Simon Cook, of DFJ Esprit, a venture-capital company, argues that Silicon Valley's most successful export is not Google or Apple but the idea of Silicon Valley itself.
然而，尽管存在这些问题，在向全世界推广创业精神文化中，美国仍扮演着至关重要的角色。人们都钦佩该国有能力培养足以改变世界的企业家，如比尔?盖茨；创造财富的大学，如哈佛和斯坦福，以及震撼全球的族群，如硅谷。DFJ Esprit创业资本公司的西蒙?库克说：“硅谷最成功之处并不是产生了谷歌或苹果，而是硅谷精神本身”。
Foreigners who were educated in America's great universities have helped to spread the gospel of entrepreneurialism. Two of Europe's leading evangelists, Sir Ronald Cohen and Bert Twaalfhoven, were both products of HBS. Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs, who cut their teeth in Stanford and Silicon Valley, are now returning home in ever larger numbers, determined to recreate Silicon Valley's magic in Bangalore or Shanghai.
在美国顶尖大学接受教育的外国人们也在帮助传播创业精神的福音。在欧洲推广创业精神的两大领军人物：罗纳德?科恩爵士和Bert Twaalfhoven均出自与哈佛大学商学院。刚从斯坦福和硅谷走出的中国和印度的创业者人数与日俱增，他们正回到自己的家乡，在班加罗尔或上海这样的地方续写硅谷神话。
America is putting hard financial muscle behind this soft power. The Kauffman Foundation spends about $90 m a year, from assets of about $2.1 billion, to make the case for entrepreneurialism, supporting academic research, training would-be entrepreneurs and sponsoring “Global Entrepreneurship Week”, which last year involved 75 countries. Goldman Sachs is spending $100 m over the next five years to promote entrepreneurialism among women in the developing world,
particularly through management education.
美国在这种软动力的支持下正在恢复金融实力。资产总额21亿美元的考夫曼基金会每年拿出9000万美元资助创业精神推广，包括支持学术研究、培训想成为创业家的人们、赞助“全球创业周”活动(该活动去年有75个国家参与)。高盛在未来5年内将投入1亿美元，特别是通过管理教育，提升那些发展中国家女性的创业意识。
Old Europe
老旧的欧洲
The other two of the world's three biggest developed economies-the EU and Japan-are far less entrepreneurial. The number of innovative entrepreneurs in Germany, for instance, is less than half that in America, according to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), a joint venture between the London Business School and Babson College. And far fewer start-ups in those countries become big businesses. Janez Potocnik, the EU commissioner for science and research, points out that only 5% of European companies created from scratch since 1980 have made it into the list of the 1,000 biggest EU companies by market capitalisation. The equivalent figure for America is 22%.
同为全球三大发达经济体的欧洲和日本的创业精神则远远不如美国。根据英国伦敦商学院和美国百森商学院联合共同发起成立的全球创业观察(GEM)的数据显示，以德国为例，该国的创新型创业数量不及美国的50%，同时这些欧洲国家新创业公司成为大型企业的可能性则少之又少。欧盟负责科学与研究的委员Janez Potocnik指出，按市值排名，1980年后白手起家的公司中，只有5%能排入欧洲前1000位，而这个比例在美国则是22%。
This reflects different cultural attitudes. Europeans have less to gain from taking business risks, thanks to higher tax rates, and more to lose, thanks to more punitive attitudes to bankruptcy (German law, for example, prevents anyone who has ever been bankrupt from becoming a CEO). When Denis Payre was thinking about leaving a safe job in Oracle to start a company in the late 1980 s, his French friends gave him ten reasons to stay put whereas his American friends gave him ten reasons to get on his bike. In January last year Mr Payre's start-up, Business Objects, was sold to Germany's SAP for euro 4.8 billion.
这反映了不同的文化取向，由于较高的税率，欧洲企业通过商业冒险而得到的收益较少，同时由于对破产严格的法律惩处，损失更多(例如德国法律规定有过破产记录的人不得再担任企业的总裁)。当上世纪80年代后期Denis Payre考虑辞去甲骨文公司安稳的工作岗位并创建一家新公司时，他的法国朋友给了他十条留下来的理由，而美国朋友则正相反，给了他同样数量去创业的理由。去年1月份，Payre创立的商业目标公司被德国SAP公司以48亿欧元的高价收购。
European egalitarianism, too, militates against entrepreneuri
alism: the EU is much more interested in promoting small businesses in general than in fostering high-growth companies. The Europeans' appetite for time off does not help. Workers are guaranteed a minimum of four weeks' holidays a year whereas Americans' vacations are much less certain. Europeans are also much more suspicious of business. According to a Eurobarometer poll, 42% of them think that entrepreneurs exploit other people's work, compared with 26% of Americans.
欧洲的平均主义也妨碍了创业精神的传播：欧盟更乐于广泛地发展小型企业，而不是鼓励高成长企业。欧洲人对带薪假期的热望毫无益处。员工每年都能确保享受4周的假期，而美国则少很多。欧洲人对企业持有更高的怀疑态度，根据欧洲指标的测评，42%的欧洲人认为企业家们剥削他人的工作成果，而仅有26%的美国人这么认为。
These cultural problems are reinforced by structural ones. The European market remains much more fragmented than the American one: entrepreneurs have to grapple with a patchwork of legal codes and an expensive and time-consuming patent system. In many countries the tax system and the labour laws discourage companies from growing above a certain size. A depressing number of European universities remain suspicious of industry, subsisting on declining state subsidies but still unwilling to embrace the private sector.
这些文化性问题由于结构性难题更加突出。欧洲市场较美国市场而言更加分散；创业者们需要服从各种法律规范；专利申请更加耗时费钱。在很多国家税收系统和劳工法案限制公司的成长规模。欧洲的大多数大学仍然对商业持怀疑态度，它们依靠持续减少的国家经费维持运行，而并不愿意接受私营企业的捐助。
The European venture-capital industry, too, is less developed than the American one (significantly, in many countries it is called “risk” capital rather than “venture” capital). In 2005, for example, European venture capitalists invested euro 12.7 billion in Europe whereas American venture capitalists invested euro 17.4 billion in America. America has at least 50 times as many “angel” investors as Europe, thanks to the taxman's greater forbearance.
欧洲的创业资本行业也不如美国发达(尤为重要的是，在很多国家被称为“风险”资本而不是“创业”资本)。举例说明，2005年欧洲创业投资额为127亿欧元，而美国则达到了174亿欧元。感谢那些纳税人更好的忍耐能力，美国的“天使”投资人数量是欧洲的至少50倍。
Yet for all its structural and cultural problems, Europe has started to change, not least because America's venture capitalists have recently started to export their model. In the 1990 s Silicon Valley's moneybags believed that they should invest “no further than 20 miles from their offices”, but lately the Valley's finest have been es
tablishing offices in Asia and Europe. This is partly because they recognise that technological breakthroughs are being made in many more places, but partly also because they believe that applying American methods to new economies can start a torrent of entrepreneurial creativity.
尽管有这些结构性和文化性问题，欧洲已经开始转变，尤其是当美国创业资本投资人近期开始输出这种模式。上世纪90年代硅谷的富人们认为他们的投资“不能超出办公室20英里的范围“，而近来最好的公司已经开始在亚洲和欧洲设立机构。这种做法部分源于他们意识到在更多的地方可以实现技术突破，部分由于这些公司相信在新兴经济中应用美国方法可以产生创业创新的浪潮。
Between 2003 and 2006 European venture-capital investment grew by an average of 23% a year, compared with just 0.3% a year in America. Indeed, three European countries, Denmark, Sweden and Britain, have bigger venture-capital industries, in relation to the size of their economies, than America. Venture-capital-backed start-ups have produced more than 100 “exits” (stockmarket flotations or sales to established companies) worth more than $100 m since 2004. Tele Atlas, a Dutch mapping outfit, was recently bought by TomTom for $4.3 billion.
在2003至2006年间，欧洲创业资本投资以年均23%的速度增长，而美国则只有年均0.3%的增量。诚然，与美国相比，三个欧洲国家：丹麦、瑞典和英国的创业资本行业占经济规模的比重较大。自2004年起，创业资本资助的项目发生了100多次“重组”(对公司通过股市或进行直接收购)，涉及资金超过1亿美元。德国地图设备商Tele Atlas近期被TomTom以43亿美元收购。
The success of Skype, which pioneered internet-based telephone calls, was a striking example of the new European entrepreneurialism. The company was started by a Swede and a Dane who contracted out much of their work to computer programmers in Estonia. In 2005 they sold it to eBay for $2.6 billion.
互联网通话的领军公司Skype的成功为新欧洲创业精神树立了一个惊人的典范。这家公司最初由一个瑞典人和一个丹麦人发起设立，他们把许多工作外包给爱沙尼亚的计算机程序员。2005年，公司以26亿美元的价格卖给eBay。
Several European universities have become high-tech hubs. Britain's Cambridge, for example, has spawned more than 3,000 companies and created more than 200 millionaires in the university. The accession of ten eastern European countries to the EU has also tapped into an internal European supply of scientists and technologists who are willing to work for a small fraction of the cost of their pampered western neighbours.
一些欧洲大学也变成了高科技集中地。例如英国的剑桥孕育出3000多家公司，为大学创造了200多个百万富翁。新加入欧盟的10个东欧国家也加
强了欧洲内部的科学家和技术人员的供给量。这些人乐意以更低的成本为那些较富裕的西欧邻居们工作。
Slowcoach Japan
行动迟缓的日本
The Japanese can hardly be accused of aversion to long hours. Big Japanese companies have an impressive record of incremental improvement, particularly in the electronics business. But for the most part the Japanese have been less successful than the Europeans at adapting to entrepreneurial capitalism. The latest GEM global report gives Japan the lowest score for entrepreneurship of any big country, placing it joint bottom with Greece. The brightest people want to work for large companies, with which the big banks work hand in glove, or for the government. Risk capital is rare. Bankruptcy is severely punished. And the small-business sector is wrapped in cotton wool, encouraging “replicative” rather than “innovative” behaviour. Over the past quarter-century the rate at which Japan has been creating new businesses has been only one-third to half that in America.
长期以来，日本人几乎从不让人反感。大型日本公司保持了惊人的增长记录，特别是在电子行业尤为突出。但在很大程度上，日本在引入创业精神上没有欧洲人成功。最新的GEM全球报告在对所有大国的创业精神评价中，给予了日本最低分数，这使日本和希腊两国共同垫底。在日本，最聪明的人希望为政府或大公司工作，那些大公司与大银行关系紧密。在这里基本没有风险资本，而破产会受到严厉的惩罚。小型企业则被被束手束脚，它们鼓励“复制”而非“创新”。在过去的四分之一个世纪中，日本所创建的新公司比例仅占美国的三分之一到二分之一。
Asia, An astonishing rebound
亚洲，惊人的反弹
Aug 13th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Asia's emerging economies are leading the way out of recession; now they must make their recovery last
亚洲新兴经济体正在率先走出衰退；然而它们必须使复苏得以持久
IT NEVER pays to underestimate the bounciness of Asia's emerging economies. After the region's financial crisis of 1997-98, and again after the dotcom bust in 2001, outsiders predicted a lengthy period on the floor-only for the tigers to spring back rapidly. Earlier this year it was argued that such export-dependent economies could not revive until customers in the rich world did. The West still looks weak, with many economies contracting in the second quarter, and even if America begins to grow in the second half of this year, consumer spending looks sickly. Yet Asian economies, increasingly decoupled from Western shopping habits, are growing fast.
低估亚洲新兴经济体的反弹性是得不偿失的。在该地区1997至98年的金融危机之后，以及后来又一次在2001年网络泡沫的破灭之后，局外人都预测会有一个长期探底的过程-然而它们却如
猛虎般的迅速跃起。今年早期人们认为这样的出口依赖型经济体只有在发达国家的消费复苏以后才可能恢复活力。西方国家仍然看起来很疲软，许多经济体在第二季度中衰退，并且即使美国在今年下半年开始增长，消费者开支看来也是虚弱无力的。然而伴随着亚洲经济体和西方式消费方式的关联不断减弱，前者正在快速增长。
The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10% (see article). Even richer and more sluggish Japan, which cannot match that figure, seems to be recovering faster than its Western peers. But emerging Asia should grow by more than 5% this year-at a time when the old G7 could contract by 3.5%. Western politicians should brace themselves for more talk of economic power drifting inexorably to the East. How has Asia made such an astonishing rebound?
四个新兴亚洲经济体(中国，印尼，南韩与新加坡)披露的第二季度GDP数字显示它们以平均高于10%的年化比率增长。即使是更富裕且萧条的日本，虽然其GDP不能与这些数字相比，仍然显得比西方发达国家恢复要快。然而新兴亚洲国家本应该以高过5%的速率增长-在古老的G7收缩3.5%的时候。西方政客们应该稳住情绪开始准备更多的关于经济实力向东方不可动摇地转移的对话。那么亚洲经济是如何形成了如此惊人的反弹？
Out of smoke and mirrors, say some Western sceptics. They claim China's bounceback is yet another fake. The country's numbers are certainly dodgy: the components of GDP do not add up, and the data are always published suspiciously early. China's economy probably slowed more sharply in late 2008 than the official numbers suggest. But other indicators, which are less likely to be massaged, confirm that China's economy is roaring back. Industrial production rose 11% in the year to July; electricity output, which fell sharply last year, is growing again; and car sales are 70% higher than a year ago.
一些西方怀疑论者认为(这种反弹)仅仅是水中月雾中花。他们声称中国的经济反弹只是又一个骗局。这个国家的统计数据必定是弄虚作假：GDP的组成部分是不合理的，并且数据总是发布的令人可疑的早。2008年后期中国经济减缓可能比官方数据所揭示的要严重得多。然而其他一些不易被操纵的指标确认了中国经济的快速恢复。上半年的工业生产总值上升了11%，去年剧烈下滑的发电量重新增长；汽车消费比一年前高出70%。
And surely the whole of Asia cannot be engaged in a statistical fraud. South Korea's GDP grew by an annualised 10% in the second quarter. Taiwan's probably increased by even more: its industrial output jumped by an astonishing annualised rate of 89%. India was hit less