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Managing Bank Liquidity Risk

Managing Bank Liquidity Risk
Managing Bank Liquidity Risk

Managing Bank Liquidity Risk:

How Deposit-Loan Synergies Vary with Market Conditions

Evan Gatev

Boston College

Til Schuermann

Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Wharton Financial Institutions Center Philip E.Strahan

Boston College,Wharton Financial Institutions Center,and National Bureau of Economic Research

Liquidity risk in banking has been attributed to transactions deposits and their potential to spark runs or panics.We show instead that transactions deposits help banks hedge liquidity risk from unused loan commitments.Bank stock-return volatility increases with unused commitments,but only for banks with low levels of transactions deposits.This deposit-lending hedge becomes more powerful during periods of tight liquidity,when nervous investors move funds into their banks.Our results reverse the standard notion of liquidity risk at banks,where runs from depositors had been seen as the cause of trouble.(JEL G18,G21) Much theory attempts to?nd dimensions of“bank specialness,”typically from a synergy of combining deposits with loans.Banks’role as delegated moni-tor explains why they tend to hold large and well-diversi?ed loan portfolios, and why they tend to fund themselves mostly with debt(Diamond,1984). Deposits—banks’main source of debt—tend to be short term and subject to a“sequential service constraint,”meaning that priority of payment is on a ?rst-come,?rst-served basis.This unique capital structure stems from bank loan opaqueness.Loans make“bad”collateral because outsiders cannot value them;by subjecting themselves to the possibility of a run,banks increase their borrowing capacity against their loans(Calomiris and Kahn,1991;Flannery, 1994;Diamond and Rajan,2001).

We would like to thank the FDIC Center for Financial Research for?nancial support,as well as for helpful comments on the research.We would also like to thank seminar participants at Boston College,Ohio University, Tilburg University,and the University of Amsterdam,and participants at the2nd FIRS(Financial Intermediation Research Society)Conference in Shanghai and the China International Conference in Finance(CICF)in Xian,as well as Robert de Young,Paul Kupiec,Tobias Moskowitz(the editor),and an anonymous referee.Kristin Wilson assisted with preparation of the data.Any views expressed represent those of the authors only and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.Send correspondence to P.E. Strahan,Boston College,140Commonwealth Avenue,Chestnut Hill,MA02467,United States,telephone:(617) 552-6430.E-mail:philip.strahan@https://www.doczj.com/doc/9314886050.html,.

C The Author2007.Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved.For Permissions,please e-mail:journals.permissions@https://www.doczj.com/doc/9314886050.html,.

doi:10.1093/rfs/hhm060Advance Access publication November20,2007

The Review of Financial Studies/v22n32009

Fama(1985)argues that liquidity production helps explain what is different about banks.Private information from the business checking account gives banks an advantage in lending over other intermediaries.1Banks provide liq-uidity not only to demand depositors,however,but also to borrowers via lines of credit and undrawn loan commitments(we use these terms interchangeably).2 Both contracts allow customers to receive cash on demand.The liquidity in-surance role of banks exposes them to the risk that they will have insuf?cient cash to meet random demands from their depositors or borrowers.This article shows that banks reduce their liquidity risk by combining transactions deposits with loan commitments,thus helping to explain a key feature of the industry.

Our point of departure is the model presented by Kashyap,Rajan,and Stein (2002),hereafter KRS,who explain why banks combine transactions deposits with loan commitments using a risk-management motivation:as long as the demand for liquidity from depositors is not highly correlated with liquidity demands from borrowers,an intermediary can reduce its need to hold cash by serving both customers.Thus,their model yields a diversi?cation synergy between demand deposits(or transactions deposits more generally)and loan commitments.As evidence,KRS report a positive correlation across banks between unused loan commitments and transactions deposits.The correlation is robust to variations in the de?nition of loan commitments and to bank size, and is also consistent across time.KRS do not,however,test the key implication of their model—the idea that by exposing themselves to asset-side and liability-side liquidity risks simultaneously,banks can enjoy a diversi?cation,or risk-reducing synergy.

We test the basic premise of the KRS model—that liquidity risks stemming from the two fundamental businesses of banking yield a diversi?cation bene?t. The results suggest that bank risk,measured by stock-return volatility,increases with unused loan commitments,re?ecting asset-side liquidity risk exposure. This increase,however,is mitigated by transactions deposits.In fact,risk does not increase with loan commitments for banks with high levels of transactions deposits.

Table1illustrates our key?nding in a simple and intuitive way.The table reports our measure of risk(average stock-return volatility,equal to the annu-alized return standard deviation)for large,publicly traded banks,along with 1Mester,Nakamura,and Renault(2006)offer some empirical evidence for this notion.Gatev(2006)argues that banks also have unique information about systematic(as opposed to?rm-speci?c)liquidity shocks,allowing them to lend to opaque?rms such as hedge funds.

2Early literature attempts to understand how banks’role in liquidity production leads to fragility.Diamond and Dybvig(1983)argue that by pooling their funds in an intermediary,agents can insure against idiosyncratic liquidity shocks while still investing most of their wealth in high-return but illiquid projects.This structure leads to the potential for a self-ful?lling bank run and sets up a policy rationale for deposit insurance.More recent theoretical and empirical studies focus on liquidity risk from the asset side.For example,Berger and Bouwman (2006)document the importance of banks in liquidity production on both sides of bank balance sheets,and show that this role has grown sharply over time.There is also a growing literature showing that liquidity-risk management or liquidity shocks to banks affect loan supply.See Paravisini(2006),Khwaja and Mian(2005), Loutskina(2005),and Loutskina and Strahan(2006).

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Table1

Mean bank characteristics,by transactions deposits and unused commitments

Transactions deposits/total deposits(TD)

TD<33rd33rd pct.≥TD<67th pct.≤

percentile67th pct.TD

(1)(2)(3)

Unused commitments/(commitments+loans)(LC)

LC<33rd percentile

Stock-return volatility0.280.290.32 (Cash+securities)/assets0.320.310.33 Assets(billions of$s)10.5810.207.14 Fed funds purchased/assets0.070.080.07 Equity/assets0.080.080.11 33rd percentile≤LC<67th percentile

Stock-return volatility0.290.290.30 (Cash+securities)/assets0.320.310.33 Assets(billions of$s)17.8521.6416.53 Fed funds purchased/assets0.090.100.11 Equity/assets0.080.080.07 67th percentile≤LC

Stock-return volatility0.360.320.31 (Cash+securities)/assets0.340.300.33 Assets(billions of$s)34.6389.1083.36 Fed funds purchased/assets0.070.100.10 Equity/assets0.080.080.08 Mean commitments ratio0.300.310.37 Average bank characteristics and stock-return volatility,equal to the annualized return standard deviation,for large,publicly traded banks.Data on unused commitments,transactions deposits,as well as the other bank characteristics,come from the most recent quarter of the Reports of Income and Condition prior to the time at which we measure the stock-return variability.The observations are sorted vertically by the percentiles of the distribution of level of loan commitments(unused commitments divided by unused commitments plus loans) and horizontally by the level of transactions deposits relative to total deposits.Each of the nine cells reports the simple average for all observations in that part of the distribution.

several bank characteristics,including a liquidity ratio(cash+securities to assets),total assets,Fed funds purchased to assets,and the ratio of equity to assets.We divide the data into nine cells,based on the level of loan commit-ments(unused commitments divided by unused commitments plus loans)and the level of transactions deposits(relative to total deposits).Each cell reports the simple average for all observations in that part of the distribution.Stock-return volatility(our measure of risk)clearly increases with loan commitments for banks with low and moderate levels of transactions deposits(columns1 and2).Risk does not increase for banks with high levels of transactions de-posits(column3).Loan commitments do not expose banks with high levels of transactions deposits to much risk.

Table1also shows that banks with high levels of unused commitments tend to be larger than average.Banks exposed to commitments that operate without the bene?t of high levels of transactions deposits also hold more cash than other banks(last row of column1).3Thus,the high balance-sheet liquidity held by these banks does not fully offset the risk from liquidity exposure associated 3The cash ratio is not monotonically increasing in liquidity exposure from transactions deposits.

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with high levels of unused commitments.Banks with unused commitments seem to conserve on cash by funding themselves with transactions deposits.

Figure1paints a similar picture.We scatter bank stock-return volatility (with one time-averaged observation per bank)against unused commitments.

For banks with below-median levels of transactions deposits,risk increases with unused commitments(Panel A).The slope coef?cient in this simple regression equals0.28(t=5.55),meaning that moving from the25th to the75th percentile of the distribution of unused commitments comes with an increase in volatility of about10%.Banks with high levels of transactions deposits face no increase in risk with asset-side liquidity exposure(Panel B).If anything,risk falls slightly with commitments for these banks.

In the empirical analysis next,we show that the simple results in Table1 and Figure1hold up in multivariate models,even after controlling for bank size(which is correlated with unused commitments),as well as measures of market and credit risk exposure.The result is robust to alternative measures of stock-return volatility,to different statistical modeling approaches,as well as to variations in the set of control variables included in the model.

We then extend the benchmark results by testing how the deposit-lending diversi?cation synergy varies with market conditions.We show that the hedg-ing synergy is stronger when market-wide liquidity supply is low,which we proxy with the Commercial Paper–Treasury Bill spread(wide spreads indi-cate low liquidity).The hedge strengthens because greater takedown demand from borrowers occurs just as new funds?ow into bank transactions deposit accounts(Gatev and Strahan,2006).In?ows and out?ows of liquidity offset, thus mitigating the risk.Bank ex ante exposure to liquidity shocks,however, does not increase during these short-term episodes.We can,therefore,rule out reverse causality—the possibility that safer banks choose higher exposures to both asset-side and liability-side liquidity risk.

Our results show that transactions deposits play a critically important role in allowing banks to manage their liquidity risk,especially during periods of market pullbacks.The?ndings strengthen the KRS theoretical argument,and help explain the robust positive correlation across banks between transactions deposits and loan commitments.

1.Background and Previous Research

The growth of the commercial paper market and subsequently of the junk bond market in the1980s and1990s has reduced banks’role as credit suppliers for large corporations(Mishkin and Strahan,1998).Other innovations,such as mortgage and credit card securitization,have also expanded the role of securities markets for households.This evolution toward the securities markets, however,has not rendered banks irrelevant(see Boyd and Gertler,1994).They remain important to large?rms as providers of backup https://www.doczj.com/doc/9314886050.html,mercial 998

Managing Bank Liquidity Risk

Figure1a

Stock Return V olatility for Low Transactions Deposit Banks,1990-2002

Figure1b

Stock Return V olatility for High Transactions Deposit Banks,1990-2002

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paper issuers regularly support their program with backup lines from banks.4 In addition,while most?rms do not issue commercial paper,almost all secure a line of credit from a bank.Su?(2006)?nds that at least75%of Compustat?rms disclose a bank line of credit and that these lines relax liquidity constraints. Households also receive liquidity from banks through credit cards and home equity lines.Banks,of course,continue to provide liquidity through their role as issuers of transactions deposits.

Why do banks provide liquidity to both borrowers and depositors?KRS present a model in which a risk-management motive explains the combination of transactions deposits and loan commitments.They argue that as long as liquidity demand from depositors and borrowers is not too correlated,an inter-mediary will reduce its cash buffer by serving both customers.Holding cash raises costs for both agency and tax reasons(Myers and Rajan,1998).Thus, their model yields a diversi?cation synergy between transactions deposits and unused loan commitments.

This synergy helps explain one of the basic features of banking.KRS show that banks offering more transactions deposits tend also to make more loan commitments.In Gatev and Strahan(2006),we suggest a stronger hypothesis, supported by our?ndings that the correlation is not only low but is often negative.Transactions deposits can be viewed as a natural hedge because?ows into these accounts offset the systematic liquidity risk exposure stemming from issuing loan commitments and lines of credit.

Our previous work extends KRS by considering the possibility that liquid-ity production could expose banks to systematic liquidity risk.A bank with many open credit lines may face a problem if systematic increases in liquid-ity demand occur periodically.5Gatev and Strahan(2006)show that funding to banks increases when market liquidity declines,meaning that liquidity de-mands become negatively correlated in tight markets.Why do banks enjoy funding in?ows when liquidity dries up?First,the banking system has explicit guarantees of its liabilities.6Second,banks have access to emergency liquidity 4Banks began offering liquidity insurance for large?rms early in the development of the commercial paper market. In1970,Penn Central Transportation Company?led for bankruptcy with more than$80million in commercial paper outstanding.As a result of their default,investors lost con?dence in other issuers,making it dif?cult for some of these?rms to re?nance their paper as it matured.The Federal Reserve responded to the Penn Central crisis by lending aggressively to banks through the discount window and encouraging them,in turn,to provide liquidity to their large borrowers.In response to this dif?culty,commercial paper issuers began purchasing backup lines of credit from banks to insure against future funding disruptions(Kane,1974;Calomiris,1994;and Calomiris,1989).

5For example,during the?rst weeks of October1998,following the coordinated restructuring of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management,spreads between safe treasury securities and risky commercial paper rose dramatically.Many large?rms were consequently unable to roll over their commercial paper as it came due, leading to a sharp reduction in the amount of commercial paper outstanding and a corresponding increase in takedowns on preexisting lines of credit(Saidenberg and Strahan,1999).As a result of this market pullback, banks faced a spike in demand for cash as many of their largest customers drew funds from preexisting backup lines of credit.

6Deposit insurance limits have recently been expanded for the?rst time since1980.In addition,some small banks have begun to avoid binding limits on deposit insurance by splitting very large deposits across multiple 1000

Managing Bank Liquidity Risk

support from the central bank.Third,large banks such as Continental Illinois have been supported in the face of?nancial distress(O’Hara and Shaw,1990). Thus,funding in?ows occur because banks are rationally viewed as a safe haven for funds.Consistent with this notion,Pennacchi(2006)?nds that during the years before the introduction of federal deposit insurance,bank funding supply did not increase when spreads tightened.

In a case study,Gatev,Schuermann,and Strahan(2006)focus on the behavior of deposit?ows across banks during the1998crisis.During the three months leading up to the crisis,bank stock prices were buffetted by news of the Russian default,followed by the demise of LTCM in late September,and?nally by the drying up of the commercial paper market in the?rst weeks of October.7 Figure2shows the aggregate effects of the1998crisis on stock-return volatility. We plot bank stock volatility and volatility of the S&P500,measured as the conditional volatility from an EGARCH(1,1)model.The?gure highlights the difference between bank risk exposures in different business conditions.During the crisis,bank stock prices fell more than the stock prices of non-?nancial?rms (Panel A),and return volatility became higher than overall general market volatility(in contrast to the“normal”precrisis period—Panel B).8

To understand how banks weathered the1998storm,in Gatev,Schuermann, and Strahan(2006)we explore the cross-sectional patterns in deposit?ows. We?nd?rst that investors moved funds from markets into banks;second,that banks with higher levels of transactions deposits before the crisis had the largest ?ows of new money during the crisis;and third,that all of the?ows of new money were concentrated in bank demand deposits.So,banks structured to bear increased demands for liquidity from borrowers(i.e.,banks with transactions deposits)could meet those demands easily(because money?owed into those accounts).Thus,government safety nets can explain why banks generally receive funding during crises,but the evidence from Gatev,Schuermann,and Strahan(2006)and Kashyap,Rajan,and Stein(2002)suggests that the structure of banks matters too.

Before the introduction of government safety nets,transactions deposits could sometimes expose banks to liquidity risk when consumers together re-moved deposits,either to increase consumption or because they had lost con-?dence in the banking system.This bank-run problem has traditionally been institutions.For a broad discussion of deposit insurance and policy rami?cations,see Kroszner and Strahan (2005).

7For policy discussion on LTCM,see Edwards(1999).For a discussion of bank exposure to hedge funds,see Kho,Lee,and Stulz(2000)and Fur?ne(2006).

8Chava and Purnanandam(2006)provide evidence that the CP market ceased to function at the beginning of October by comparing abnormal returns for?rms with and without access to this market.They show?rst that stock prices of CP issuers fell much less than other?rms when bank?nancial condition deteriorated during September1998(while markets continued to function).During the?rst two weeks of October,however,the stock prices of all?rms,regardless of their ability to access the CP market,fell equally.Thus,all?rms became bank dependent—even CP issuers—during those weeks because CP markets ceased to function and even large corporations relied on banks for liquidity.

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Figure2a

Bank Stock-Price Index.

Figure2b

Bank Conditional Stock-Return V olatility.

viewed as the primary source of liquidity risk and creates a public policy ra-tionale for FDIC insurance as well as for reserve requirements for demand deposits(Diamond and Dybvig,1983).In crisis,investors now run to banks, not away from them(at least they do in the US),and banks funded with 1002

Managing Bank Liquidity Risk

transactions accounts receive the in?ow.Thus,rather than open banks to liq-uidity risk,transactions deposits today help banks hedge that risk,which now stems more from the lending side.We now turn to our direct tests of this idea.

2.Empirical Methods

2.1Sample

We start by identifying the100largest publicly traded domestic banks(based on market capitalization)at the beginning of each year from1990to2002.9 We focus on large banks for several reasons.First,large-bank stocks trade frequently,so daily stock returns are available and reliable.For smaller banks, lack of active trading every day poses problems in estimating the conditional volatility model(see the following text).Second,large banks hold the vast majority of the banking system’s assets.For example,about60%of bank assets were held by the100largest banks during our sample.Third,large banks are more actively engaged in commitment lending than small banks.

After identifying the top100,we drop all banks that engaged in a merger or acquisition(M&A)during the year of the deal itself(but not in other years).

For example,15of the large banks were involved in M&A in1990,leaving 85in our sample.10Next,we construct the weekly conditional volatility for stock returns for these banks(details follow).For our purpose,a week begins and ends on Wednesday,as this is the weekday with the fewest public holidays which might close the markets.We repeat this sampling procedure for every year between1990and2002.Note that it is important to drop both acquirers and targets around M&A announcements because speculation about such deals generates a large amount of stock-price volatility having nothing to do with the basic risks banks face(market,credit,liquidity,etc.).So,for example,we drop both JP Morgan and Chase during the year of their merger,but these two banks are included as two separate banks in the years prior to the merger,and as a single bank in the year after the merger.As a result,the maximum number of banks in any year is98(2002),and the minimum is68(1996).The sample-generating procedure leaves us with170banks,and almost50,000bank-week observations overall.

2.2Conditional mean volatility

We construct our conditional stock-return volatilities by?rst?tting daily returns to a GARCH(1,1)model for each bank-year,as follows.Let r i,t+1be the return 9We begin in1990because that is the?rst year when unused retail loan commitments are available,which we shall control for as a robustness check.Prior to1990,only total commitments are reported.

10Traded equity re?ects the pro?ts and risk of the entire bank holding company,so our use of the term“bank”refers to the whole holding company.In collecting characteristics,we use data for the lead bank within the holding company.

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for bank i from t to t +1.Then,bank returns may be characterized by

r i ,t +1=μi +εi ,t +1σ2i ,t +1=ω+αε2i ,t +βσ2i ,t ,ω,α,β>0,(1)

where μi is a nonzero drift.For estimation,the innovation εi ,t +1is assumed to be conditionally normally distributed with time-varying GARCH(1,1)volatility as speci?ed in the second equation of (1).

Based on the coef?cients estimated in the GARCH model,we construct daily conditional volatility,and then we aggregate up the daily volatilities to weekly frequency.11Table 1reports the simple average level of these conditional volatilities,normalized to represent the annualized standard deviation of the stock return.We split the data into nine cells,based on the joint distribution of the level of the ratio of transactions deposits to total deposits and the level of unused loan commitments to total commitments plus total loans (our measure of asset-side liquidity exposure).This admittedly simple table illustrates the main hedging idea of our research:banks with high levels of transactions deposits have similar levels of risk regardless of their loan-liquidity exposure (column 3).In contrast,risk increases with loan liquidity risk (unused loan commitments)for banks at the low end of the transactions deposits distributions (column 1).Increasing unused loan commitments comes with an increase in risk of nearly 30%for these banks (from 0.28to 0.36).The same patterns show up in the medians within each cell (not reported).The deposit base,therefore,seems to act as a natural hedge against liquidity exposure from loan commitments.12

2.3Regression speci?cation

To demonstrate these results more systematically,we estimate an empirical model of the conditional volatility as a function of bank liquidity exposure,deposits,and other market-level and bank-level characteristics,as follows:

Log(σit )=β0+β1LoanCommitments i ,t ?1+β2DepositBase i ,t ?1

+β3(LoanCommitments i ,t ?1×DepositBase i ,t ?1)

+Bank-Level and Market-Level Control Variables +u i ,t ,(2)

where σit is the conditional stock-return volatility for bank i at time t from the ?rst-stage GARCH (1,1)model in Equation (1);LoanCommitments i ,t ?1is the ratio of unused loan commitments to commitments plus loans (measured in the previous quarter);and DepositBase i ,t ?1is the ratio of transactions deposits 11To aggregate volatilities from daily to lower frequencies,say weekly,we take the average over that week and scale by √5,allowing for the possibility of missing days due to,for instance,holidays.

12

Notice that the hedge seems to go both ways.That is,for banks with low levels of loan commitments (?rst row),higher transactions deposits come with higher risk (from 0.28to 0.32).On the other hand,for banks with high levels of commitments,higher transactions deposits come with lower risk (from 0.36to 0.31).1004

Managing Bank Liquidity Risk

to total deposits(again,from the prior quarter).If deposits help banks hedge asset-side liquidity risk,as suggested by Table1,thenβ3<0.13

2.4Variable de?nitions and data sources

As time-varying controls in the regression,we include the contemporaneous stock-return volatility for the S&P500as a whole,estimated with a GARCH (1,1)model in the same fashion as the bank-speci?c volatilities;the3-month treasury-bill rate;and the spread between the high-grade3-month commercial paper rate and the3-month treasury-bill rate.To be consistent with the condi-tional volatilities,the interest rate data are taken for the Wednesday of a given week.

For bank-level controls,we include the following:the log of assets(size control),the ratio of cash plus securities to total assets(liquid asset measure),the ratio of capital to assets(capital adequacy measure),and the ratio of Fed funds purchased to assets(a measure of access to the Fed funds market,a liquidity pool).Controlling for size is particularly important given its correlation with loan commitments(recall Table1).We also consider a second loan commitment variable as a robustness test that removes retail commitments(e.g.,credit card lines)from both the numerator and the denominator of LoanCommitments i,t?1. Unused retail commitments may be less likely to expose banks to risk compared to business-loan commitments,where takedown demand is both less predictable and more likely to have a systematic component such as the one observed in the fall of1998.

Data on unused commitments,transactions deposits,as well as the other bank characteristics,come from the most recent quarter of the Reports of Income and Condition(“call reports”)prior to the time at which we measure the stock-return variability.For example,all weeks in the second quarter of 1990are matched to call report data for the?rst quarter of1990.Stock return data come from the Center for Research in Securities Prices(CRSP),inclusive of dividend payments and adjusted to account for stock splits.Data on interest rates are available daily from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.Note that since the regulatory data is available only at quarterly intervals,the bank characteristics remain unchanged for all weeks within a given quarter.

2.5Summary statistics

Table2reports the summary statistics for all of the variables reported in the regressions.Bank-stock volatility averages about30%per year,well above the 16%for the S&P500index.We would expect,of course,index volatility to be lower due to portfolio effects.In our sample,the mean loan commitment ratio is about0.32and the mean level of transactions deposits to total deposits equals about0.26.As in KRS,banks with high levels of loan commitment also 13We have also estimated regressions like(1)using the level of volatility as well as the square of volatility(variance).

These results are similar in terms of statistical and economic signi?cance to those reported here.

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Table2

Summary statistics for variables included in regression models

Mean Standard deviation

(1)(2)

Dependent variable

Stock-return volatility0.300.13

(annualized return standard deviation)

Commitments and deposits

Commitments/(commitments+loans)0.320.15

(Commitments?retail commitments)/0.240.13

(commitments?retail commitments+loans)

Transactions deposits/total deposits0.260.11

Controls for market conditions

V olatility of S&P5000.160.06

(annualized return standard deviation)

Commercial paper–treasury bill yield spread(%pts)0.400.21

Yield on3-month treasury bill(%pts) 4.52 1.55

Controls for bank characteristics

Assets(billions of$s)34.4769.89

(Cash+securities)/assets0.320.12

Fed funds purchased/assets0.090.06

Equity/assets0.080.04

Summary statistics for all of the variables used in regressions next.Stock-return volatility is equal to the annualized return standard deviation.Data on unused commitments and transactions deposits,as well as the other bank characteristics,come from the most recent quarter of the Reports of Income and Condition prior to the time at which we measure the stock-return variability.

tend to focus on transactions deposits.For instance,46%of the observations in Table1line up on the diagonal(relative to33%if the data were evenly distributed).Most of our control variables are ratios that lie between zero and one(interest rates are in percents).In the case of assets,we take the log of the variable.Hence,there is no concern about outliers driving the results.

3.Results

3.1Main?ndings

Table3reports the benchmark set of?ndings.We report the regressions from Equation(2)considered previously using all of our data.The table reports four speci?cations,two based on the total commitments ratio,and two that exclude retail commitments.For each of these,we report a simple model with just log of assets as a bank control,and a more complex model that adds the liquid assets ratio(cash+securities),the ratio of Fed funds purchased to assets,and the capital-asset ratio.Note that we have a very large sample(almost50,000 bank-week observations),but we cluster the data by bank to avoid assuming independence over time for each bank.This clustering raises the standard errors by a factor of about10relative to the OLS standard errors.

The results in Table3support the idea that loan commitment risk(liquidity risk)can be hedged with transactions deposits.The coef?cient on the interaction term(β3)is negative and highly statistically signi?cant,ranging from?1.60to ?1.75across the four speci?cations.For a bank with transactions deposits at 1006

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Table3

Regressions of bank stock-return volatility on liquidity exposure and transactions deposits ratio

Dependent variable:

Log of weekly bank stock-return volatility

predicted volatility from GARCH(1,1)

(1)(2)(3)(4) Unused commitments and deposits

Commitments/(commitments+loans)0.7880.82--

(7.19)??(6.94)??--

(Commitments?retail commitments)/--0.951 1.005 (commitments?retail commitments+loans)--(3.55)??(3.63)??Transactions deposits/total deposits0.7010.7720.4850.497

(4.66)??(3.37)??(1.90)(1.80)

Commitments/(commitments+loans)??1.604?1.749--

Transactions deposits/total deposits(4.46)??(3.52)??--

(commitments?RC)/(commitments?RC+loans)?--?1.702?1.709 transactions deposits/total deposits--(2.19)?(2.07)?Controls for market conditions

Log of volatility of S&P5000.4940.4990.4640.46

(21.43)??(20.82)??(16.80)??(16.43)??

Paper-bill spread0.0850.0840.1030.103

(3.79)??(3.80)??(4.53)??(4.51)??

Yield on3-month treasury bill0.0310.030.0310.03

(6.96)??(6.44)??(6.76)??(6.44)??Controls for bank characteristics

Log of assets?0.001?0.003?0.008?0.012

(0.06)(0.23)(0.57)(0.85)

(Cash+securities)/assets-?0.03-?0.108

-(0.25)-(0.83) Fed funds purchased/assets-0.067-?0.098

-(0.26)-(0.37) Equity/assets-?0.174-0.095

-(0.41)-(0.22) Observations49,52749,52749,52749,527 Number of independent clusters(banks)170170170170

R228.77%28.80%27.86%28.02% Regressions from Equation(2)using all data.The dependent variable equals the GARCH(1,1)estimate of conditional stock-return volatility.There are four speci?cations,two based on the total commitments ratio, and two that exclude retail commitments.One of each speci?cation is a simple model with just log of assets as a bank control,and the other is a more complex model that adds the liquid assets ratio(cash+securities), the ratio of Fed funds purchased to assets,and the capital-asset ratio.Parentheses report absolute value of t-statistics,which are based on robust standard errors clustered by bank,with?denoting signi?cance at5%;??signi?cance at1%.All regressions include an intercept.

the10th percentile of its distribution(0.12),the coef?cients suggest that loan commitments expose banks to risk.For such a bank,a one-standard-deviation increase in the loan commitment ratio would come with an increase in stock-return volatility of about2.5%points(relative to a sample standard deviation of about13%points).For a bank with transactions deposits at the90th percentile (0.38),however,the same increase in loan commitments comes with an increase in stock-return volatility of just0.6%points.

3.2Robustness tests

Tables4–7report four sets of robustness tests.We?rst replace the GARCH (1,1)estimate of conditional stock-return volatility with realized volatility,

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Table4

Regressions of bank stock-return volatility on liquidity exposure and transactions deposits ratio

Dependent variable:

Log of weekly bank stock-return volatility

Realized volatility

(1)(2)(3)(4) Unused commitments and deposits

Commitments/(commitments+loans)0.8030.859--

(7.77)??(7.05)??--(Commitments?retail commitments)/--0.9040.991 (commitments?retail commitments+loans)--(3.33)??(3.31)??Transactions deposits/total deposits0.7540.8990.5450.621

(6.04)??(3.53)??(2.37)?(2.03)?Commitments/(commitments+loans)??1.541?1.811--Transactions deposits/total deposits(5.00)??(3.36)??--(Commitments?RC)/(commitments?RC+loans)?--?1.633?1.782 Transactions deposits/total deposits--(2.20)?(1.98)?Controls for Market Conditions

Log of volatility of S&P5000.5110.5220.4810.483

(22.01)??(20.62)??(17.35)??(15.84)??Paper-bill spread0.2340.2310.2530.25

(8.59)??(8.54)??(9.50)??(9.38)??Yield on3-month treasury bill0.0140.0130.0140.013

(3.17)??(2.61)??(2.98)??(2.64)??Controls for bank characteristics

Log of assets0.001?0.003?0.005?0.009

(0.03)(0.24)(0.32)(0.60) (Cash+securities)/assets-?0.039-?0.1

-(0.30)-(0.70) Fed funds purchased/assets-?0.016-?0.187

-(0.06)-(0.66) Equity/assets-?0.379-?0.113

-(0.78)-(0.23) Observations49,52749,52749,52749,527 Number of independent clusters(banks)170170170170

R212.37%12.41%11.80%11.87% Regressions from Equation(2)using all data.The dependent variable equals the log of average-squared daily returns over1week.There are four speci?cations,two based on the total commitments ratio,and two that exclude retail commitments.One of each two speci?cations is a simple model with just log of assets as a bank control, and the other is a more complex model that adds the liquid assets ratio(cash+securities),the ratio of Fed funds purchased to assets,and the capital-asset ratio.Parentheses report absolute value of t-statistics,which are based on robust standard errors clustered by bank,with?denoting signi?cance at5%;??signi?cance at1%.All regressions include an intercept.

equal to the weekly average of squared returns(Table4).Next,we remove three systematic risk factors from returns before constructing the weekly average of squared returns(Table5).Table6focuses on the statistical assumptions by separating time series from cross-sectional https://www.doczj.com/doc/9314886050.html,st,Table7focuses on the potential for omitted variables bias.

Table4shows that the precise modeling technique for return volatility has little impact on the coef?cients of interest.The effects of transactions deposits and unused commitments,and,most important,the interaction or hedging term, are similar using both realized volatility and the GARCH volatility.We do?nd, however,that the effect of market conditions(particularly the paper-bill spread) more than doubles and becomes much more statistically powerful.This makes

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Managing Bank Liquidity Risk

Table5

Regressions of bank stock-return volatility on liquidity exposure and transactions deposits ratio

Dependent variable:

Log of weekly bank stock-return volatility

realized residual volatility

(1)(2)(3)(4) Unused commitments and deposits

Commitments/(commitments+loans)0.6410.771--

(6.55)??(6.84)??--

(Commitments?retail commitments)/--0.829 1.012 (commitments?retail commitments+loans)--(3.27)??(3.59)??Transactions deposits/total deposits0.6550.9920.5080.766

(5.88)??(5.08)??(3.33)??(3.44)??

Commitments/(commitments+loans)??1.217?1.897--

Transactions deposits/total deposits(4.29)??(4.53)??--

(Commitments-RC)/(commitments-RC+loans)?--?1.424?2.033 Transactions deposits/total deposits--(2.20)?(1.98)??Controls for market conditions

Log of volatility of S&P5000.3680.3920.3410.359

(16.25)??(16.53)??(13.52)??(13.52)??

Paper-bill spread0.2310.2270.2470.242

(9.33)??(9.13)??(10.22)??(10.00)??

Yield on3-month treasury bill0.040.0360.040.036

(8.33)??(7.00)??(8.14)??(6.93)??Controls for bank characteristics

Log of assets?0.041?0.046?0.048?0.057

(3.71)??(3.79)??(3.92)??(4.09)??

(Cash+securities)/assets-?0.042-?0.127

-(0.31)-(0.90) Fed funds purchased/assets-0.086-?0.062

-(0.32)-(0.23) Equity/assets-?0.907-?0.682

-(2.38)?-(1.62)?Observations49,52749,52749,52749,527 Number of independent clusters(banks)170170170170

R29.05%9.27%8.93%9.09% Regressions from Equation(2)using all data.The dependent variable equals the log of the average-squared residual return from the factor model from Equation(3),removing market,credit,and interest rate factors.There are four speci?cations,two based on the total commitments ratio,and two that exclude retail commitments. One of each speci?cation is a simple model with just log of assets as a bank control,and the other is a more complex model that adds the liquid assets ratio(cash+securities),the ratio of Fed funds purchased to assets, and the capital-asset ratio.Parentheses report absolute value of t-statistics,which are based on robust standard errors clustered by bank,with?denoting signi?cance at5%;??signi?cance at1%.All regressions include an intercept.

sense because the realized volatilities will adjust immediately to changing market conditions,while the GARCH estimates will only do so gradually.The goodness of?t of the model also declines sharply,presumably because,in contrast to the GARCH estimates,the realized volatilities are not smoothed over time.

In Table5,we model the realized residual volatility,where we?rst remove three systematic factors from the returns,as follows:

r i,t=αi+β1,i r m,t+β2,i (Baa-Aaa)t+β3,i (3-Month T-Bill)t+εi,t.(3)

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Table6

Regressions of bank stock-return volatility on liquidity exposure and transactions deposits

ratio—between versus within estimator

Dependent variable:

Log of weekly bank stock-return volatility

Between estimator Within estimator

(1)(2)(3)(4)

Unused commitments and deposits

Commitments/(commitments+loans)0.7620.8050.2020.082

(4.58)??(3.94)??(1.41)(0.60)

Transactions deposits/total deposits0.815 1.0130.2810.237

(3.55)??(2.98)??(0.98)(0.85)

Commitments/(commitments+loans)??1.384?1.739?1.668?1.492

Transactions deposits/total deposits(2.00)?(2.08)?(2.64)??(2.53)?

Controls for market conditions

Log of volatility of S&P5000.5490.5690.4470.452

(6.52)??(6.47)??(24.61)??(25.01)??

Paper-bill spread?1.84?1.7830.1630.162

(4.48)??(4.22)??(8.63)??(8.60)??

Yield on3-month treasury bill0.2040.1950.0240.024

(5.39)??(4.85)??(5.11)??(5.15)??

Controls for bank characteristics

Log of assets?0.014?0.014?0.0140.011

(0.83)(0.72)(0.59)(0.41)

(Cash+securities)/assets-0.057-0.225

-(0.38)-(1.59) Fed funds purchased/assets-?0.013-?0.458

-(0.04)-(1.93) Equity/assets-?0.527-?1.125

-(0.84)-(2.22)?Observations49,52749,52749,52749,527

Number of independent clusters(banks)170170170170

R239.81%40.15%29.73%30.28%

Regressions from Equation(2)using all data.There are four speci?cations:columns1and2report

the“between”estimator from regressions using bank-level time-series averages,and columns3

and4report the“within”estimator,which allows each bank to have its own intercept in the

regressions.One of each two speci?cations is a simple model with just log of assets as a bank

control,and the other is a more complex model that adds the liquid assets ratio(cash+securities),

the ratio of Fed funds purchased to assets,and the capital-asset ratio.Parentheses report absolute

value of t-statistics,which are based on robust standard errors clustered by bank,with?denoting

signi?cance at5%;??signi?cance at1%.All regressions include an intercept.

We estimate this?rst-stage factor model separately for each bank-year,and then compute the average squared residuals to build the realized residual volatility for each bank during each week in the year.In Equation(3),r m,t represents the return on the market portfolio,proxied by the return on the S&P500; (Baa-Aaa)t represents a default-risk or credit-risk factor,equal to the change in the yield on Baa-rated corporate bonds relative to Aaa-rated bonds;and (3-Month Treasury-Bill)t represents an interest rate risk factor, equal to the change in yield on short-term treasury bills.Data for the mar-ket return are from CRSP,and the interest rate series come from the Federal Reserve.

Because we have removed factors related to bank interest rate risk,market risk,and credit risk,the residual volatility is more likely to represent pure

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Table7

Regressions of bank stock-return volatility on liquidity exposure and transactions deposits ratio—add controls for credit risk,market risk,and time dummies

Dependent variable:

Log of weekly bank stock-return volatility

(1)(2)(3)(4)

Unused commitments and deposits

Commitments/(commitments+loans)0.6100.5070.6000.501

(5.28)??(4.31)??(5.76)??(4.67)??

Transactions deposits/total deposits0.2790.2510.4270.418

(1.55)(1.51)(2.53)??(2.61)??

Commitments/(commitments+loans)*?1.067?0.884?0.921?0.800

Transactions deposits/total deposits(2.45)?(2.21)?(-2.38)?(2.18)?

Controls for market conditions

Log of volatility of S&P5000.5070.498--

(22.95)??(22.32)??--

Paper-bill spread0.1000.111--

(4.35)??(4.76)??--

Yield on3-month treasury bill0.0290.027--

(5.67)??(5.63)??--

Controls for bank characteristics

Log of assets?0.012?0.007?0.015?0.012

(0.96)(0.64)(1.21)(1.04)

(Cash+securities)/assets0.2460.3320.1250.213

(1.73)(2.36)?(0.96)(1.68)

Fed funds purchased/assets0.1410.1440.1630.166

(0.58)(0.60)(0.72)(0.74)

Equity/assets0.5840.6890.5520.594

(2.37)?(3.04)??(2.30)*(2.46)?

Controls for credit and market risks

C&I loans/assets0.3690.4170.2300.287

(2.29)?(2.66)??(1.33)(1.71)

Commercial real estate loans/assets?0.337?0.179?0.454?0.321

(1.31)(0.71)(1.70)(1.24)

Nonperforming loans/assets10.8327.8598.890 6.476

(5.66)??(4.37)??(4.33)??(3.63)??

Trading assets/assets0.3450.4550.3200.415

(2.00)?(2.79)??(2.08)*(2.81)??

AAA-rated indicator?0.142?0.147?0.259?0.250

(2.58)??(2.78)??(4.42)??(4.44)??

AA-rated indicator?0.075?0.075?0.103?0.098

(1.74)(1.78)(2.29)?(2.27)?

A-rated indicator?0.095?0.095?0.096?0.094

(3.70)??(3.85)??(3.72)??(3.80)??

Unrated indicator?0.032?0.031?0.047?0.043

(1.05)(1.05)(1.56)(1.48)

Loan loss provisions/assets?22.923?20.173

-(5.14)??-(4.92)??Net charge-offs/assets-14.411-15.645

-(1.98)?-(2.30)?Includes weekly indicators?No No Yes Yes

Observations49,52749,52749,52749,527

Number of independent clusters(banks)170170170170

R237.47%38.52%50.46%51.31%

Regressions from Equation(2)using all data and including control variables for market conditions, bank characteristics,and credit and market risks.There are four speci?cations:those in columns1and 2use time-varying control variables(S&P500volatility,the level of interest rates,and the paper-bill spread),while those in columns3and4use a full set of time-indicator variables(i.e.,a separate intercept for each week).The speci?cations in columns2and4include the ratio of net charge-offs to assets,and the ratio of loan loss provisions to assets as additional control variables.Parentheses report absolute value of t-statistics,which are based on robust standard errors clustered by bank,with ?denoting signi?cance at5%;??signi?cance at1%.All regressions include an intercept.

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liquidity risks,rather than other risks such as default risk or some broader macrofactor(absorbed by the market return in the factor model).And,as shown in Table5,the coef?cients on deposits,unused commitments,and their interaction—the hedging term—remain quite similar to those reported earlier. In fact,if we model the systematic or explained variation from the factor model, we?nd much smaller coef?cients across all three of these variables,and these coef?cients are not statistically signi?cant in three of the four speci?cations (not reported).14

Table6decomposes the results into their time-series and cross-section com-ponents.In columns1and2we report the“between”estimator—that is,the regressions are run using bank-level time-series averages.These coef?cients are driven by pure cross-sectional variation.We?nd that the hedging coef?-cient remains similar to the results in Table3in terms of magnitudes.Levels of statistical signi?cance fall slightly because the between estimator has just 170separate banks.We report the“within”estimator in columns3and4. The within estimator,also sometimes called the?xed-effects estimator,allows each bank to have its own intercept in the regressions.Because the bank-level intercept strips out all cross-sectional variation before estimating the slope coef?cients,the results are driven solely by within-bank variation over time. Again,we continue to?nd strong evidence of the transactions deposits-loan commitment diversi?cation synergy.The results in Table6suggest that the hedging effects of combining loan commitments with transactions deposits are present with approximately equal magnitude in both the cross-sectional and time-series dimensions.

The results in Table5,based on residual volatility,suggest that standard risk factors cannot explain our?ndings.Another way to rule out these alternative explanations is to control for bank exposure to them directly in modeling overall volatility,which we report in Table7.Credit and market risk exposures are, of course,two of the primary risks faced by banks(and,not coincidentally, these are the risks that the Basel Capital Accord focuses on).We,therefore, include the ratio of commercial and industrial loans to assets and the ratio of commercial real estate loans to assets as ex ante proxies for bank credit risk exposure.15We also include the ratio of nonperforming loans to assets as a measure of ex post risk,and,in some speci?cations,we also add the ratio of net charge-offs to assets,and the ratio of loan loss provisions to assets.16To control for cross-bank variation in market risk exposure,we include the ratio of trading account assets to total assets.And,as a?nal catch-all control,we include three 14Consistent with Demsetz and Strahan(1997),Table5also reports a signi?cant negative effect of log of bank assets,re?ecting size-related diversi?cation.

15In general,business loans are the part of the bank loan portfolio with the most credit risk(Demsetz and Strahan, 1997;Stiroh,2006).Loan losses tend to be higher for credit card loans,but these losses are much more predictable than losses associated with business lending.

16Nonperforming loans are de?ned as loans more than30days past due plus loans no longer accruing interest but not yet charged off the balance sheet.

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indicators based on the bank’s credit rating,along with an indicator equal to one for unrated banks.

The results in Table7suggest that while our measures for both credit and market risk are correlated with stock-return volatility in the expected ways, the liquidity-risk-offsetting in?uence of deposits is robust to these other risks (columns1and2).The coef?cients on C&I loans and trading account assets enter with positive signs(signi?cant in two of the four models).Even more striking,both nonperforming loans and loan loss provisions have substantial power to explain stock-return volatility,as do the ratings indicators.But,the key result remains:the coef?cient on the interaction term remains negative and signi?cant,and,more generally,the results are similar to those reported before.17

The last two columns of Table7repeat these regressions,but now we replace the time-varying control variables(S&P500volatility,the level of interest rates,and the spread)with a full set of time-indicator variables(i.e.,a separate intercept for each week).The market-level variables are not identi?ed in this model because the time effects sweep out all common shocks to bank-stock volatility.The advantage of this approach is that time effects remove any missing common factors that may move bank-stock volatility around,such as changes in regulations,macroeconomic shocks,changes in monetary policy,and so on.18The effects of interest,again,remain robust in these speci?cations.19 3.3Interpreting our results

We do not explicitly model the trade-offs associated with a bank’s choice of balance sheet liquidity(cash and securities)versus transactions deposits.20Our results(and the KRS model)suggest,however,that banks?ush with transac-tions deposits will supply liquidity to borrowers via loan commitments,and that banks with strong demand for loan commitments will optimally fund them-selves with transactions deposits.Why,then,do we ever observe banks exposed to unused commitments having low levels of transactions deposits(and vice versa)?KRS take bank deposits as exogenous,arguing implicitly that variation depends on supply factors like demographics or banking market concentration, rather than as a hedge against asset-side liquidity risk.Some banks in concen-trated markets,for example,may enjoy a large supply of low-cost transactions 17To the extent that rating agencies account for liquidity risk,adding the credit rating may be absorbing some of the effects that we are trying to measure,thus biasing the coef?cients of interest toward zero.And,in fact,the coef?cients of interest fall slightly relative to the results without these variables.

18For example,passage of the Financial Modernization Act in1999may have increased bank stock-return volatility temporarily by increasing speculation about merger activity among?nancial companies.

19We have also estimated our model for above-and below-median-sized banks.For both samples,we?nd similar results for the coef?cients on the loan commitments and transactions deposits variables and their interaction, both in terms of magnitudes and levels of signi?cance.

20Banks presumably choose all of these jointly,along with other capital structure policies such as leverage and debt maturity.A full analysis of the substitutability across these?nancial policies would require a set of identifying instruments,an exercise well beyond the scope of this paper.We focus,instead,on the covariation between these endogenous?nancial variables and our outcome measure,the bank’s stock-return volatility.

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deposits but have relatively little demand for loan commitments.These banks are represented by the upper right-hand corner of Table1.The average size of banks in this cell is the smallest in our sample(just over$7billion in assets),and small banks typically have a bank-dependent,small-business clientele.Small ?rms generally receive less liquidity insurance from banks relative to larger ?rms.21Other banks located where transactions deposits supply is low may have borrowers with an unusually high demand for liquidity(represented in the lower left corner of Table1).

Given this discussion,we must consider the possibility of reverse causality. The concern is that risk management drives bank choices of transactions de-posits and loan commitments,rather than the other way around.Perhaps safe banks,for example,choose to expose themselves to greater liquidity risk on both sides of the balance sheet.We have already seen that the hedging effects are robust to varying the set of observable risk measures.Another approach, which we turn to next,is to test how results vary with market conditions.During “normal”times,the diversi?cation synergy comes from reducing the effects of idiosyncratic liquidity demands.When market liquidity becomes scarce,how-ever,borrowers systematically draw funds from preexisting loan commitments at the same time that funding?ows into bank transactions deposits accounts. Since liquidity demands become negatively correlated in tight markets,the hedging term ought to become larger then.Exposure to liquidity shocks(the potentially endogenous choice by the bank)does not vary at high frequency.In fact,our measure is taken from the preceding quarter and has no within-quarter variation at all,so an increase in the hedging term in tight markets is unlikely to re?ect reverse causality.

3.4Varying market conditions

To test this notion,we?rst reestimate Figure1,now scattering stock-return volatility against unused loan commitments during the commercial paper crisis of1998(Figure3).In the?rst weeks of October,commercial paper spreads rose to over100basis points(in the99th percentile of the spread distribution), liquidity in the market dried up,and issuers were forced to draw funds from their back-up lines.The two panels again show an increasing relationship between risk and unused commitments for banks with low levels of transactions deposits(Panel A),but no relationship for banks with high levels of transactions deposits(Panel B).Most important,the slope of the relationship for the low-transactions deposits banks almost doubles from what we see unconditionally (rising from0.28in Figure1,Panel A,to0.46here).Comparing magnitudes, moving from the25th to the75th percentile of the unconditional distribution of unused commitments comes with a3%point increase in volatility(10%of the unconditional mean);during the1998crisis,the same relative increase in 21There is a strong positive correlation between?rm size and the importance of lines of credit,both among small, private?rms as well as among large,Compustat?rms(see Bitler,Robb,and Wolken,2001;Su?,2006).

1014

英雄联盟LOL全攻略英雄出装介绍打法教学

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《危险化学品生产储存装置个人可接受风险标准和社会可接受风险标 准试行》 GE GROUP SyStem OffiCe room [GEIHUA16H-GEIHUA GEIHUA8Q8-

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三、社会可接受风险标准 我国社会可接受风险标准图附录:1 ?相关术语 2?危险化学品生产、储存装置外部安全防护距离推荐方法

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快速导览

目录 第一章背景综述 (7) 1.1.公司简介 (7) 1.2.项目管理系统的现状与发展趋势 (10) 1.3.集团级项目管理信息化的建设思路 (12) 第二章系统总体设计思路 (15) 2.1.系统总体目标 (15) 2.2.项目管理框架体系规划 (15) 2.3.业务处理思路 (16) 2.4.信息和数据收集、处理及流程控制 (16) 第三章系统应用设计方案 (18) 3.1.系统总体架构设计 (18) 3.2.系统技术架构设计 (19) 3.3.系统应用框架设计 (21) 3.3.1.项目与组织 (21) 3.3.2.集团总部应用方案 (23) 3.3.3.项目公司应用方案 (31) 第四章系统业务方案 (44) 4.1.多层级、多项目并行管理 (44) 4.1.1.统一的项目管理体系 (44) 4.1.2.统一的责任范围体系 (44) 4.1.3.统一的计划协调体系 (44) 4.1.4.统一的流程管理体系 (44) 4.1.5.统一的信息发布与交流体系 (45) 4.1.6.统一的知识管理体系 (45) 4.2.项目管理业务功能 (45) 4.2.1.项目与组织 (46) 4.2.1.1项目体系 (46) 4.2.1.2组织体系 (46) 4.2.1.3责任体系 (46) 4.2.2.战略规划 (47) 4.2.2.1规划修编 (47) 4.2.2.2潜在项目库 (48) 4.2.3.前期管理 (48) 4.2.3.1前期准备 (49)

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《危险化学品生产、储存装置个人可接受风险标准和社会可接受风险标准试行)》

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三、社会可接受风险标准 1 10100 10001x10 -9 1x10-8 1x10-7 1x10-6 1x10-5 1x10-4 1x10-31x10-2 1x10 -1 我国社会可接受风险标准图 附录:1.相关术语 2.危险化学品生产、储存装置外部安全防护距离推荐方法 死亡人数N (人) 累积频率F (次/年) 不可接受区 尽可能降低区 可接受区

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