GEOVISUALIZATION AND EPIDEMIOLOGY A GENERAL DESIGN FRAMEWORK
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ISSN AbbreviatedJournal TitleFull Title Category Subcategory Country1619-45004OR-Q J OPER RES4OR-A Quarterly Journal 管理科学运筹学与管理科GERMANY0891-0162AAOHN J AAOHN Journal PUBLIC, ENVIRON NURSING UNITED STATES 0149-1423AAPG BULL AAPG BULLETIN工程技术地球科学综合UNITED STATES 1550-7416AAPS J AAPS Journal医学药学UNITED STATES 1530-9932AAPS PHARMSCITECH AAPS PHARMSCITECH医学药学UNITED STATES 1532-8813AATCC REV AATCC REVIEW工程技术材料科学:纺织UNITED STATES 0942-8925ABDOM IMAGING ABDOMINAL IMAGING医学核医学UNITED STATES 0025-5858ABH MATH SEM HAMBURG A BHANDLUNGEN AUS DEM MAT数学数学GERMANY1085-3375ABSTR APPL ANAL Abstract and Applied Ana数学数学UNITED STATES 1069-6563ACAD EMERG MED ACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDIC医学急救医学UNITED STATES 1040-2446ACAD MED ACADEMIC MEDICINE医学卫生保健UNITED STATES 1876-2859ACAD PEDIATR Academic Pediatrics PEDIATRICS UNITED STATES 1076-6332ACAD RADIOL ACADEMIC RADIOLOGY医学核医学UNITED STATES 0898-9621ACCOUNT RES Accountability in resear MEDICAL ETHICS UNITED STATES 0001-4842ACCOUNTS CHEM RES ACCOUNTS OF CHEMICAL 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J HEALTH-SYST PHAMERICAN JOURNAL OF HEAL医学药学UNITED STATES 0361-8609AM J HEMATOL AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HEMA医学血液学UNITED STATES 1049-9091AM J HOSP PALLIAT ME A merican Journal of Hosp HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERV UNITED STATES 1042-0533AM J HUM BIOL AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMA生物生物学UNITED STATES 0002-9297AM J HUM GENET AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMA生物遗传学UNITED STATES 0895-7061AM J HYPERTENS AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HYPE医学外周血管病UNITED STATES 0271-3586AM J IND MED AMERICAN JOURNAL OF INDU医学公共卫生、环境UNITED STATES 0196-6553AM J INFECT CONTROLAMERICAN JOURNAL OF INFE医学传染病学UNITED STATES 0272-6386AM J KIDNEY DIS AMERICAN JOURNAL OF KIDN医学泌尿学与肾脏学UNITED STATES 1088-0224AM J MANAG CARE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MANA医学卫生保健UNITED STATES。
Genetic Epidemiology34:479–491(2010)Design of Association Studies with Pooled or Un-pooledNext-Generation Sequencing DataSu Yeon Kim,1ÃYingrui Li,2Yiran Guo,2Ruiqiang Li,2Johan Holmkvist,3Torben Hansen,3,4Oluf Pedersen,3,5,6Jun Wang,2,7and Rasmus Nielsen1,2,71Departments of Integrative Biology and Statistics,UC Berkeley,Berkeley,California2Beijing Genomics Institute,Shenzhen,China3Hagedorn Research Institute,Gentofte,Denmark4Faculty of Health Science,University of Southern Denmark,Odense,Denmark5Faculty of Health Science,University of Aarhus,Aarhus,Denmark6Institute of Biomedical Science,University of Copenhagen,Denmark7Department of Biology,University of Copenhagen,Copenhagen,DenmarkMost common hereditary diseases in humans are complex and rge-scale genome-wide association studies based on SNP genotyping have only identified a small fraction of the heritable variation of these diseases.One explanation may be that many rare variants(a minor allele frequency,MAF o5%),which are not included in the common genotyping platforms,may contribute substantially to the genetic variation of these diseases.Next-generation sequencing,which would allow the analysis of rare variants,is now becoming so cheap that it provides a viable alternative to SNP genotyping.In this paper,we present cost-effective protocols for using next-generation sequencing in association mapping studies based on pooled and un-pooled samples,and identify optimal designs with respect to total number of individuals,number of individuals per pool,and the sequencing coverage.We perform a small empirical study to evaluate the pooling variance in a realistic setting where pooling is combined with exon-capturing.To test for associations,we develop a likelihood ratio statistic that accounts for the high error rate of next-generation sequencing data.We also perform extensive simulations to determine the power and accuracy of this method.Overall,our findings suggest that with a fixed cost,sequencing many individuals at a more shallow depth with larger pool size achieves higher power than sequencing a small number of individuals in higher depth with smaller pool size,even in the presence of high error rates.Our results provide guidelines for researchers who are developing association mapping studies based on next-generation sequencing.Genet.Epidemiol. 34:479–491,2010.r2010Wiley-Liss,Inc.Key words:pooled samples;association mapping;rare allele;optimal design;next-generation sequencingContract grant sponsors:The Lundbeck Foundation Centre of Applied Medical Genomics in Personalized Disease Prediction,Prevention and Care(LuCAMP);NIH;Contract grant numbers:R01-HG003229;R01-MH084691.Additional Supporting Information may be found in the online version of this article.ÃCorrespondence to:Su Yeon Kim,Departments of Integrative Biology and Statistics,University of California,Berkeley,3060Valley Life Sciences Bldg]3140,Berkeley CA94720.E-mail:suyeonkim@Received2October2009;Revised28January2010;Accepted21February2010Published online15June2010in Wiley InterScience().DOI:10.1002/gepi.20501INTRODUCTION Determining the genetic basis of complex genetic diseases is one of the main challenges in human genetics [Altshuler et al.,2008;Frazer et al.,2009;Kruglyak,2008; McCarthy and Hirschhorn,2008;McCarthy et al.,2008].association mapping studies(GWAs) revealed many susceptibility loci for complex diseases such as diabetes,hypertension,bipolar,Crohn’s disease and others[Barrett et al.,2008;Hindorff et al.,2009; Thomas et al.,2009;Wellcome Trust Case Control,2007]. However,despite many successes,a majority of the additive generic variance still remains unexplained [Altshuler et al.,2008;Frazer et al.,2009;Kruglyak,2008; McCarthy and Hirschhorn,2008].One explanation for this result is that rare variants might play a significant role in complex diseases.Since genotyping platforms include SNPs that are discovered by sequencing a small panel, most of the included SNPs are common variants [MAF45%;Frazer et al.,2007]in previous GWAs.The importance of rare variants in understanding complex traits has been discussed in a number of recent studies [Azzopardi et al.,2008;Bodmer and Bonilla,2008;Cohen et al.,2004,2006;Gorlov et al.,2008;Iyengar and Elston, 2007;Ji et al.,2008;McClellan et al.,2007;Polychronakos, 2008].For example,in a re-sequencing study of three genes,Ji et al.[2008]found several rare mutations related to hypertension,appearing in the heterozygous state. The cost of re-sequencing has dropped dramatically over the past few years[Bentley et al.,2008;Wang et al., 2008;Wheeler et al.,2008].This recent development has made next-generation re-sequencing a viable alternative to SNP genotyping based on chips or other platformsr2010Wiley-Liss,Inc.[Bentley et al.,2008;Hillier et al.,2008;Van Tassell et al., 2008].However,in most studies full genome-wide re-sequencing at a high depth is still prohibitively expensive. Instead,two strategies are being used to reduce costs:(1) sequencing of the exome only—using various exon-capturing techniques and(2)the use of pooled samples. With recent developments in exon-capturing techniques, most of the human exons can be efficiently captured [Albert et al.,2007;Gnirke et al.,2009;Hodges et al.,2007; Krishnakumar et al.,2008;Okou et al.,2007;Porreca et al., 2007].While many functional variant may lie in non-coding regions,many of the mutations with the best potential for translational medicine are in coding regions,providing an extra motivation for focusing on the exome[Jones et al., 2009;Kryukov et al.,2009;Raymond et al.,2009].The use of pooled samples is particularly attractive in two-stage designs[Chi et al.,2009;Skol et al.,2006;Wang et al.,2006;Zuo et al.,2006,2008].In the first stage of a two-stage design,a large number of markers are geno-typed,or re-sequencing is being used,on a moderate number of individuals.In the second stage,the most promising markers from the first stage are further examined by genotyping in a larger set of individuals. To reduce the cost of large-scale association studies,pools of DNA from many individuals have been successfully used in the first stage of the two-stage design[Bansal et al., 2002;Boss et al.,2009;Nejentsev et al.,2009;Norton et al., 2004;Sham et al.,2002].The use of pooled samples reduces cost,particularly when combined with techniques such as exon-capturing,which has a cost associated with each pool to which it is applied.With the advent of cheap re-sequencing techniques,a viable,an economically attractive protocol for GWAs may include an initial stage of exon-capturing and re-sequencing in pooled samples [Druley et al.,2009;Ingman and Gyllensten,2008;Jones et al.,2009;Lavebratt and Sengul,2006],and a second stage based on genotyping of the best candidate SNPs from the first stage.Such a protocol is cost effective and has the potential to detect rare SNPs that would not be captured by any of the major genotyping platforms. Here,we examine the feasibility of this protocol,using both pooled and un-pooled samples.There are a number of issues related to this protocol that warrants further research,including the effects of sequencing errors and pooling variance,and the consequences of these factors for the choice of optimal experimental protocol.We first make a limited experimental study based on Nimblegen s exons capturing,and sequencing using the Illumina genome analyzer s,to determine the feasibility of studies based on a combination of these techniques.We then use the results of this study to model the protocol using realistic parameters.We perform simulations to determine power and to identify optimal designs.METHODSEXPERIMENTAL DESIGNOur analyses assume a two-stage design,where the first stage may include exon-capturing and/or pooled samples, and will involve next-generation re-sequencing.The second stage is based on traditional SNP genotyping of the most promising variants from the first stage.While the properties and design of the second stage have been explored extensively in the previous work[Skol et al.,2006;Zuo et al.,2008],the use of next-generation sequencing for the first stage[e.g.,Nejentsev et al.,2009] has not previously been explored to the same degree.EXPERIMENTAL DATAA small empirical study was conducted to evaluate feasibility of this novel approach and assess the variability introduced in real experiments.Genomic DNA was purified from blood leucocytes from five Danish volun-teers recruited at Steno Diabetes Center,Denmark.The volunteers gave informed consent and the research protocol,which is focused on studies of the genetics of metabolic disorders,was approved by the local Ethical Committee of Copenhagen.Two pools were constructed, one with two individuals and the other with five individuals.Pooling DNA of individuals was done following the pre-PCR protocol described in Lavebratt and Sengul[2006]with some small modification.In our procedure,individual DNA was diluted to10ng/m l instead to5ng/m l before pooling.Our pooling procedure is summarized in Supplementary Figure1.Exon-capturing was performed using a NimbleGen chip s[Albert et al., 2007],which captures6,726‘‘exonic’’regions covering $5Mb sequence.The DNA sample in each pool was fragmented to an average size of500bp,end repaired, ligated to Solexa adaptors s,hybridized and captured using the high-density oligonucleotide microarray.Finally, the DNA sample was amplified using PCR,and the eluted sample from it was sequenced using Solexa Genome Analyzer II s.Solexa sequence reads were aligned to the reference human genome(NCBI build36)using read-alignment program SOAP[Li et al.,2008].Pooling efficacy.In our design,reads from indivi-duals in pools could be identified after re-sequencing because they were re-sequenced both individually and in pools.The individual re-sequencing allowed the identifi-cation of unique mutations specific to each individual. Pooling efficacy was then measured by the degree to which the pooled DNA was composed of an equal contribution of DNA from each individual.Consider a pool with P s number of individuals.When using pooled samples,individual DNA samples are measured and pooled,then a fixed amount of pooled DNA is prepared for sequencing(Supplementary Fig.1). Therefore,the sequencing depth of each individual is not controlled directly,but is a function of the proportion of DNA from each individual and the total sequencing depth. However,the mean depth for an individual is expected to be proportional to the amount of DNA of that individual in the pool.Therefore,one way to model the pooling efficacy is as follows:Y i;B;Y i;b$PoissonðmÂR iÞ;where m¼D p2andR i¼W iP j W j;W i$G a p;1a p ;ð1Þwhere Y i;B and Y i;b are the counts of read bases generated from each of the two alleles(B and b)in individual i,D p is the pool depth and R i is the proportion of the DNA from each individual.W i is the DNA amount of individual i. Note that if pooling is perfect,then W i is the same across individuals and R i is expected to be1=P s.In reality, however,W i is likely to vary,and one way to model this480Kim et al. Genet.Epidemiol.variation is to use a gamma distribution,as the gamma distribution provides a very flexible family of continuous positive variables using only two parameters.The gamma distribution is a favorite choice in statistics for modeling such distributions and the properties of the distribution are well known.In our case,when W i follows a gamma distribution with a shared rate parameter,ðR 1;...;R P s Þ$Dirichlet ða p Þ.Note that the mean and the variance of each component in the Dirichlet distribution is:E ðR i Þ¼1P sand Var ðR i Þ¼P s À1P 2s Âða p P s 11Þð2ÞThe parameter a p controlling the pooling variance isestimated from the data using the maximum likelihood method.Exon-capturing efficacy.Variation in exon-captur-ing efficacy introduces extra variation in read depth across the sites.High depth implies efficient exon-capturing,and low depth implies poor exon-capturing performance.We model the exon-capturing efficacy as a gamma distribution:Y j $Poisson ðm t ÂC j Þand C j $G a c ;1a c;ð3Þwhere Y j is the observed total depth at site j and m t is the expected total sequence depth given by experimental design.C j controls the exon-capturing efficacy at site j .Large values of C j imply efficient capturing on site j and small values C j imply poor exon-capturing efficacy .Exon-capturing might fail for some sites.In that case,the capturing efficacy can be modeled as a mixture of a point mass at zero and a gamma distribution.We estimate the sequencing error rate conservatively as the average mismatch rate.Specifically,all the counts of pairwise mismatches between the reference human gen-ome and aligned reads were averaged across targeted regions as well as across the aligned reads.EXPERIMENTAL COSTIn order to illustrate how to make cost effective choices regarding optimal design,we will make assumptions regarding experimental cost.Obviously,costs can change rapidly and design of individual studies should take current costs into consideration.It should be noticed that our general conclusions are not dependent on the specificassumptions regarding costs made here.In the most general pooled design,the total cost of an experiment has four components:cost of obtaining DNA samples,cost of pooling DNA samples,exon-capturing,and sequencing.We will in the following ignore the cost of obtaining DNA samples and assume that such samples are available before the onset of the study.The DNA pooling cost mainly depends on the total number of individuals that are pooled.The key step in pooling is to dilute and accurately quantify the DNA concentration of each individual sample.We will here assume,for the sake of example,that initial preparation for each individual in a pool costs $2.We will assume that exon-capturing cover-ing all human exons ($30Mb)costs $3,500for each pool.The cost of sequencing is divided into two parts,a cost of preparation of the DNA sample which we will assume is $200,and a cost associated with the production of sequencing reads.We will assume a cost of $500for Solexa-sequencing of a 30Mb exonic region at a depth of 2Â(for details,see Supplementary Methods).The assumed experimental costs are summarized in Table I.Notice that for individual sequencing,the exon-capturing cost rapidly increases with the number of individuals,even if the sequencing cost is fixed.The use of pooled samples allows deeper sequencing at the same cost.LIKELIHOOD RATIO TESTThe data produced by next-generation sequencing differ from that of SNP-chips.Genotyping,in principle,reveals the two alleles in each individual in each targeted nucleotide site.Next-generation re-sequencing produces large amounts of short reads.After mapping to the reference genome,an alignment of reads across the targeted regions is obtained.A schematic example of re-sequencing data at a single site is shown in Figure 1.In this particular example,cases and controls each consist of two pools with two individuals.Each nucleotide site in each individual is represented in reads a random number of times.It is generally unknown which of the two alleles in an individual is represented in a particular read.Also,there is a high probability of sequencing errors.One of the main challenges in the use of next-generation sequencing data in association mapping studies aimed at detecting associations with rare SNPs is to distinguish between true SNPs and false SNPs caused by sequencingTABLE I.Examples of experimental costs for re-sequencing of pooled or un-pooled DNA samples in targeted regionsNumber of Pool Depth Experimental cost (unit:$1,000)cases/controls size per indiv.Pooling Exon-capturingSequencing Total 50018Â03,5002,2005,700100014Â07,0002,4009,400200012Â014,0002,80016,80050018Â03,5002,2005,702100024Â43,5002,2005,704200042Â83,5002,2005,708400081Â163,5002,2005,716100054Â41,4002,0803,484100058Â41,4004,0805,4841000516Â41,4008,0809,484The cost settings are obtained by assuming Solexa-sequencing of pooled or unpooled DNA samples on the human exome ($30Mb),captured using Nimblegene arrays.481Design of Association Studies Genet.Epidemiol.errors.The nature of the data is such that,even after basic bioinformatic quality control procedures,sequencing errors remain a serious problem.Power can be gained by incorporating the possibility of errors into the statistical framework used for detecting associations.There is a trade-off between eliminating too many putative SNPs as sequencing errors,thereby eliminating a number of true SNPs,and eliminating too few putative SNPs,and then suffer a serious multiple testing problem.A full likelihood approach incorporated into the association mapping testing procedure may help to directly identify the optimal balance between eliminating too few or too many putative SNPs in a particular design,and to select the putative SNPs that most likely are associated with the trait.We have developed a simple version of such a likelihood approach.We have also extended this method so it can be applied to provide a more powerful method for pooling designs.In the following we will discuss how the method can be developed into a likelihood ratio test,which we apply for each individual site to test the difference in minor allele frequencies:H0:p1¼p2ð¼p0Þvs.H A:p1¼p2,where p1 and p2are the minor allele frequency in cases and controls, respectively.We test each site,j,independently of each other. Suppose that for both cases and controls,there are N pool pools with P s individuals per pool.After re-sequencing, for each pool m,an alignment of reads OðmÞ¼ðXðmÞ1;...; XðmÞVðmÞÞ0is obtained,where XðmÞk is the k th read among the total VðmÞreads in locus j.Let GðmÞbe the number of A (minor)alleles in pool m.(Note that GðmÞis not observed.) Each observed read is a copy of one of the alleles in a pool, but copying is potentially made with errors.Note that below,we assume a relatively simple structure in which e¼Pðread¼A j allele¼aÞ¼Pðread¼a j allele¼AÞ.How-ever,our statistical model can easily be extended to incorporate a more complicated error structure.In Equation(4)below,instead of a binomial distribution modeling the conditional read counts a multinomial distribution with probability that takes each type-specific error rate(e b;b0)into account could be used:e b;b0¼Pðread¼b j allele¼b0Þ,where b;b02ðA;C;G;TÞ.Our likelihood ratio statistic(LRT)is computed as: LRT¼À2logLð^p0j O;eÞ12¼À2log Q2N pool m¼1PðOðmÞj^p0;eÞQ N pool m¼1PðOðmÞj^p1;eÞQ2N pool m¼N pool11PðOðmÞj^p2;eÞ0@1A;and,the likelihood for each pool m is computed as: PðOðmÞj p0;eÞ¼X GðmÞPðGðmÞj p0ÞPðOðmÞj GðmÞ;eÞ¼X S pool k¼0PðGðmÞ¼k j p0ÞY VðmÞr¼1PðXðmÞr j GðmÞ¼k;eÞ!¼X S pool k¼0 Binomðk;S pool;p0ÞBinomðnðmÞA;VðmÞ;kS poolð1ÀeÞ11Àk Spoole ;ð4Þwhere nðmÞA is the number of A in reads.The last equation is motivated as follows:GðmÞfollows a binomial distribution with S pool(52P s)number of trials each with probability p0 (assuming no population structure).Given that there are k minor alleles(A)in a pool,each read becomes of type A with probability k/S pool if there are no errors.If errors occur,the probability iskS poolð1ÀeÞ11Àk SpooleAssuming homogeneity in sequencing efficiency across chromosomes(i.e.,the number of sequenced reads for each allele follows the same distribution)and independence, the number of A reads in the pool(nðmÞA)follows a binomial distribution.Notice that the total number of reads in each pool(VðmÞ)is assumed to be given.Cases ControlsGenotype ReadbaseGenotype ReadbaseFig.1.Schematic illustration of the next-generation sequencing data at a single position.Each case and control sample consist of two pools with two individuals in each pool.The two alleles of each individual are shown in the‘‘Genotype’’column.There are two types of alleles(A and a).Each allele appears a random number of times,and may have been affected by sequencing errors.482Kim et al.Genet.Epidemiol.The performance of the likelihood ratio statistic for hypothesis testing based on individual sites could be evaluated in terms of Type I and Type II errors in a classical sense.However,our objective is to evaluate design issues relating to a two-step design in which next-generation sequencing is used in the first step of the design.We therefore evaluate the efficacy of the statistic in selecting a causal SNP among a pre-determined number of selected sites.Accordingly,the power is determined as the prob-ability of including the causative SNP among the set of selected sites(e.g.,the probability of including the causal SNP among50sites selected from a total of300,000sites).We do not evaluate the Type I and Type II error of the test in the classical sense,although we will present simulation results showing that P-values calculated based on the likelihood ratio test statistic under suitable conditions follow a uniform distribution,and hence,that the test will have a Type I error rate equal to the nominal significance level. Maximization of the likelihood function was done using a bounded version of the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno(BFGS)algorithm[Broyden,1970;Fletcher,1970; Goldfarb,1970;Shanno,1970]or the Simplex method [Nelder and Mead,1965].Overall,the Simplex method algorithm performed better,presumably because the computational expense in numerically approximating the gradient in the BFGS algorithm overwhelmed the faster convergence of this algorithm for this low-dimensional puting our LRT statistic for1,000sites takes 69sec with the Simplex algorithm,but136sec with BFGS algorithm on a standard desktop computer,for a total of 10,000reads from500cases and500controls in1,000pools.G-TESTWith genotyping data and under the Hardy-Weinberg assumption,one natural way to test for differences in allele frequencies between cases and controls is to use G-tests.G-tests are likelihood-ratio tests,which are commonly used to test independence in contingency tables.When counts are generated by independent trials, the test statistic asymptotically follows a w2distribution. The test statistic,G-statistic,is computed as:G¼2X i;j O i;j log O i;j E i;j ð5Þwhere O i;j is the frequency observed in a cell,and E i;j is the frequency expected under the null hypothesis in which rows and columns are independent in a contingency table. The well-known Pearson’s w2test is asymptotically equivalent to G-test.With next-generation sequencing data,the G-statistic can be calculated based on the read counts.However,note that then G-statistic does not take pooling structure as well as sequencing errors into account.Also,the read counts are not generated independently,since a single allele can be copied multiple times as read bases.As such,the likelihood function on which the G-statistic is based is mis-specified.In our study,we examined G-test mainly to compare the performance with our LRT statistic.SIMULATING DATAAssuming a single causative SNP,we performed extensive simulations to examine the statistical properties of the method.In these simulations,the power was evaluated as the probability of including the causative SNP among the set of SNPs selected for the second stage in a two-stage design. We then varied(1)the sequencing error rate per base pair, (2)the number of cases and control individuals,(3)the pool size(the number of individuals per pool),and(4)the sequencing depth per individual.To simplify the simulation procedure,we do not attempt to take population structure and linkage disequilibrium across loci into account.The general conclusions regarding relative power of different designs should not be affected by the strength of LD.For simplicity,we use equal numbers of cases and controls for all of our simulations,so,in the subsequent description,the number of total individuals is twice the number of cases(if not otherwise stated).Each data set consists of aligned reads from a300Kb region,which contains one causative SNP.The null set consists of two subsets,a set of true SNPs and a set of ‘‘false’’SNPs.False SNPs are sites that are invariable in the sample but appear polymorphic due to sequencing errors. Based on the results of the empirical study,we will assume an error rate of1%,if not otherwise stated.We compute the number of true SNPs in the region assuming a mutation rate of5Â10À4,as estimated in coding regions by Wang et al.[2008].For example,with1,000cases and 1,000controls,the number of SNPs is computed as 5Â10À4ÂP2;000À1i¼11iÂ300;000¼1;227.For each true SNP under the null,the minor allele frequency(MAF)is drawn from the distribution of sample frequencies under the assumption of a standard coalescence model.Geno-types are simulated assuming Hardy-Weinberg equili-brium and the reads are generated by copying each allele a Poisson distributed number of times with mean equal to half the per-individual depth.False SNPs are simulated by assuming a MAF of zero.Since every site has high sequencing depth and the next-generation sequencing error is relatively high,approx.1%,almost all the invariable sites appear as false SNPs in the read alignment. The causative SNP is simulated similarly,but with different MAFs for cases and controls computed using a multiplicative disease model.When necessary,we also simulate data with variation in pooling efficacy and exon-capturing efficacy.When both effects are introduced,we use the following model:Y i;j;b$PoissonðmÂR iÂC jÞð6Þm¼D p;R i¼W iP i i;W i$Gða p;1a pÞ;C j$Gða c;1a cÞ;where Y i;j;b is the count of the reads generated from an allele in individual i at locus j.D p is the depth of each pool, and R i is the proportion of the amount of DNA from individual i within a pool.W i models the amount of DNA from individual i and C j models exon-capturing efficacy at site j.a p and a c controls the pooling variance and capturing variance,respectively,the pooling variance equals1/a p, and the capturing variance equals1/a c.Notice that Equations(1)and(3)are simplified versions of this model, in which only one of the two effects is introduced.When the exon-capturing efficacy is constant among sites,the model simplifies to Equation(1).When the exon-capturing efficacy varies among sites,the expected read count of each allele,and thus the total read count,change in proportion to C j.483Design of Association StudiesGenet.Epidemiol.RESULTSEXPERIMENTAL DATAWe examined seven DNA samples,consisting of data from five Danish individuals,sequenced individually,and in two pools:a pool with two individuals and another pool with five individuals.The individual sequencing data were used to detect unique mutations,which allow us to identify individuals of the corresponding reads.Exon-capturing was performed for each of the seven DNA samples,using a NimbleGen chip,and was subse-quently sequenced using Solexa-sequencing (for details,see Methods).We evaluated (a)the performance of DNA pooling,(b)exon-capturing efficacy,and (c)sequencing error rate.Both pools show good pooling efficacy,i.e.,an approxi-mately equal amount of DNA from each individual in the pool (Fig.2).We first identified mutations that are specific to each ing such mutations,we then estimated the relative amount of DNA from each individual by averaging the number of reads from the unique mutations across the sequenced region.In the pool with five individuals,28,026reads can be uniquely assigned to an individual based on 3,217diagnostic mutations.The estimated proportion of DNA from each individuals was 0.186,0.210,0.191,0.211,and 0.202,respectively,showing that the proportions differ only slightly.Assuming the model in Equation (1),the estimated pooling variance (1/a p )is $1/300,which is very small.The pool with two individuals shows even better performance (data not shown).The exon-capturing efficacy varies significantly across the genome compared to the Poisson distribution expected under a constant capturing efficacy across the genome (Supplementary Fig.2).The estimated exon-capturing variance is approx.1/2(i.e.,a c is 2)(see Equation 3).Nonetheless,exon-capturing efficacy across samples were homogeneous (Supplementary Fig.3).On average,a sequencing error rate of 0.9%was estimated in the Illumina/Solexa raw reads (Table II)using the method described in Methods.DISTRIBUTION OF THE LRTWe examined the distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic using simulations.As suggested by standard asymptotic theory,the distribution of the test statistic closely follows a w 2distribution with one degree of freedom,except in cases in which the parameters are close to the boundary (Supplementary Fig.4).Across a range of MAFs covering 0.05–0.5%,the distribution of p -values computed based on the w 2distribution is nearly uniform.However,when the MAF is very small relative to the assumed sequencing error rate,a sharp peak near 1.0appears in the distribution of P -values,implying an excess of test statistics with nearly zero values.This is due to difficulty in distinguishing true SNPs with very low minor alleles from false ones,and thus MAFs under both the null and the alternative hypothesis are estimated to be zero.We also varied the number of individuals in a pool (pool size)as well as the sequencing depth per individual.Again,the distribution of the LRT statistic closely follows the w 2distribution across a range of pool sizes andI1I2I3I4I50123456Individiualsl o g 2 (r e a d c o u n t o f u n i q u e m u t a t i o n )Fig.2.Pooling variance observed in the empirical study in the pool of five ing individual sequencing data,unique mutations for each of the five individuals were obtained,and the number of reads with each mutation was counted in the pooled sample.The box plots shows the lower quartile,median (black line),and upper quartile of the log2of the number of reads with each mutations (y -axis)for each individual (x -axis).The variation among individuals is rela-tively small compared to the variation within individuals.TABLE II.Summary of the empirical data consisting of sequences from seven individuals in 5MB of exonic DNAIndiv.1Indiv.2Indiv.3Indiv.4Indiv.5Pool 1112Pool 2112131415Sequencing error rate (%)0.930.890.890.860.96 1.050.86Generated reads (Mb)92.986.9111.5112.1104.2110.0122.9%of reads mapped to exons47.444.647.647.052.649.849.6Average coverage for the targeted region18.0116.8621.621.7320.2221.2721.24The seven samples consist of five individual samples (Indiv 1-Indiv 5)and two pooled samples,one with a pool size of two (Pool 1)and the other with a pool size of five (Pool 2).Sequencing error rates are conservatively estimated as the average mismatch rate.‘‘Generated reads’’is the number of the reads after filtering out contaminated reads.‘‘The percentage of reads mapped to exons’’is the fraction of the reads mapped to exons among the generated reads.‘‘Average coverage for the targeted region’’is the average number of reads per base-pair across targeted exon regions.484Kim et al.Genet.Epidemiol.。
小学上册英语第3单元真题试卷(有答案)英语试题一、综合题(本题有100小题,每小题1分,共100分.每小题不选、错误,均不给分)1.The _______ of an object can be tested by dropping it.2.The center of an atom is called the __________.3.Herbaceous plants are different from ______ (木本植物).4.The ______ (猴子) swings from tree to tree.5.Acids turn blue litmus paper ______.6.My ________ (玩具) makes a cool noise when I spin it.7.What do you call a person who studies rocks?A. BiologistB. GeologistC. MeteorologistD. Archaeologist答案:B8.The flowers are _______ (在盛开).9.The ________ (光合作用) process is vital.10.The ____ is a small animal that enjoys exploring its surroundings.11.My grandma loves to tell __________ (有趣的故事).12.Planting trees can combat ______ (气候变化).13.What do we call the process of photosynthesis?A. Conversion of light into energyB. Absorption of lightC. Dispersal of lightD. Reflection of light答案: A14.The sun is very _____ (热).15.The __________ (河流) flows into the ocean.16.Planting _____ (药用植物) can benefit health and wellness.17.The _____ (景观) can include many different plants.18.She has a red ______ (backpack).19.The invention of the printing press allowed for the mass production of _______.20.My dad is a __________ (飞行员) and travels a lot.21. A sloth spends most of its life hanging _______ ( upside down).22.What is the name of the famous ancient city in Italy?A. PompeiiB. RomeC. VeniceD. Florence答案:A.Pompeii23.An owl is a wise _______ that comes out at night.24.________ (植物资源利用) can enhance livelihoods.25.The _____ (computer/smartphone) is useful.26. A dog barks and a cat _______.27.The ancient Romans built ________ to transport water.28. A substance that increases the rate of a chemical reaction without undergoing permanent change is a _____ (catalyst).29.I have a toy _____ that can sing.30.The __________ is known for its vibrant nightlife.31. A ______ (植物的利用) can lead to innovative products.32. A ____ is known for its elaborate courtship dance.33.What is the first month of the year?A. FebruaryB. MarchC. JanuaryD. April答案: C34.She is _____ (playing) the flute.35.The ______ is important for clean air.36.What is the name of the fairy tale character who had long hair?A. CinderellaB. RapunzelC. Snow WhiteD. Belle答案: B37.I need to _____ (wash/clean) my room.38.The ____ has a cheerful song and is often heard in the morning.39.The __________ (历史的回响) resonates with humanity.40.The girl sings very ________.41.I have a _______ (subscription) to the magazine.42.I like to go to the ______ (电影院) to watch new movies. It’s always an exciting experience.43.The _____ (海豚) is known for its playful behavior.44. A ______ is a huge ball of ice and dust that orbits the sun.45.Let’s ________ a game after school.46.The __________ is where the Earth's crust is thinnest.47.My uncle is a _______ (职业). 他在 _______ (地点)工作.48.My friend is __________ (具有前瞻性).49.The kitten is ________ and soft.50.My dad is a ______. He enjoys woodworking.51. A _______ is a mixture that appears uniform throughout.52.I can sing songs with my musical ________ (玩具名称).53.The ________ (仙人掌) can survive in dry places with little water.54.The atmosphere contains gases that are essential for ______.55.My ________ (玩具名称) helps me learn about animals.56.My favorite game is ______ (Scrabble).57.Did you ever watch a _______ (小老虎) in the zoo?58.The owl hoots _______ (在夜间).59.What is the name of the famous American landmark known for its statue of a man on a horse?A. Mount RushmoreB. Lincoln MemorialC. Statue of LibertyD. Washington Monument答案: A. Mount Rushmore60.What animal barks?A. CatB. DogC. CowD. Sheep答案:b61.My ________ (弟弟) loves to draw pictures of animals.62.How many sides does a triangle have?A. 2B. 3C. 4D. 5答案:b63. A chemical reaction can produce heat, light, or _____.64. A rainy day means I can stay ______ (舒适).65.What do we call the small pieces of glass used for decoration?A. MarbleB. BeadsC. GemsD. Mosaic答案:D66.I have a _____ (collection) of postcards.67. A pelican has a large ________________ (喙).68.I often write emails to my ____.69.He likes to __________ books.70.My favorite color is ________ (blue).71.What is the capital of France?A. HamburgB. ParisC. RomeD. Madrid答案: B72.My uncle drives a ____ (bus) for the city.73.The hummingbird can hover in ______ (空中) thanks to its wings.74.The _______ can be found in many colors.75.What do we call the outer layer of the Earth?A. CrustB. MantleC. CoreD. Shell答案:A76.The capital of Italy is __________.77. A __________ is a type of bird known for its beautiful song.78.n Wall came down in ________ (1989). The Berl79.The boiling point of water is __________ degrees Fahrenheit.80. Carta was signed in __________ (1215). The Magn81. A displacement reaction involves one element replacing ______.82.The weather is _______ (很适合户外活动)。
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J o u r n a l o f Sh an do ng Un ive rs ity of S c i e n c e a n d T e c h n o l og y第10卷第4期V01.10N o.42008年8月Aug.2008Sociai I Science50cia,sciences 编者按:认知科学(Cog niti ve Science)是目前世界科技革命中的标志性新兴交叉学科。
作为研究人类心智机制的前沿学科,认知科学已经引起了全世界科学家与哲学家的广泛关注。
人工智能、心理学和语言学等普遍被视为认知科学的核心学科,不过,基于人类智能和认知研究的复杂性和系统性,哲学在认知科学研究中发挥着独特的作用。
然而,由于对此缺乏详细的分析与说明,导致人们常常轻视甚至忽略了哲学在认知科学中的作用。
1998年,蒂姆·范·戈尔德(Tim Gelder)发表于《哲学心理学》(第11卷第2期,第117页一第136页)的《哲学在认知科学中的作用》,通过哲学家使用的独特方法,勾勒了哲学家在认知科学中的诸种角色,对哲学在认知科学中的作用作了生动和深刻的说明。
戈尔德系澳大利亚哲学家和认知科学家,1989年在美国科学哲学重镇匹兹堡大学获哲学博士学位。
戈尔德的研究工作集中于分布式表征、认知动力学理论以及推理技巧等方面。
1991年发表于《哲学杂志))(Journal of Philoso phy)的《如果不是计算,认知可能是什么?》(Whatm i g h t co g—nition be,if n o t computation?)被视为认知科学哲学研究的经典论文。
此外,他还为威尔逊(R.Wilson)等主编的《MIT认知科学百科全书)(Th e MI T Encyclo ped ia of Co gni ti ve S cien ces)撰写了“认知的动力学进路”的著名词条。
哲学在认知科学中的作用(澳]蒂姆·范·戈尔德著;孟伟,杨业玲译箩’嘴攘要:哲学到底对认知科学研究有哪些帮助?通过描述哲学家在钛知科学研究中扮演的莱些角色,我们哥以蔺鼍’l按地回答这个阚题。
期刊全称JCR 期刊简称ISSN所属小类所属小类(中文)小类分区Annual Review of Marine Science ANNU REV MA 1941-1405GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球1Annual Review of Marine Science ANNU REV MA 1941-1405OCEANOGRAP 海洋学1Annual Review of Marine Science ANNU REV MA 1941-1405MARINE & FR 海洋与淡水生物1ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS A TMOS CHEM 1680-7316METEOROLOG 气象与大气科学1BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLO B AM METEOR 0003-0007METEOROLOG 气象与大气科学1CLIMATE DYNAMICS CLIM DYNAM 0930-7575METEOROLOG 气象与大气科学2EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTER EARTH PLANE 0012-821XGEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球2EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS EARTH-SCI RE 0012-8252GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合1Geochemical Perspectives GEOCHEM PER 2223-7755GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球1GEOCHIMICA ET COSMOCHIMICA ACTA GEOCHIM COS 0016-7037GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球2GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA BULL GEOL SOC AM 0016-7606GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合1GEOLOGY GEOLOGY 0091-7613GEOLOGY 地质学1Geoscientific Model Development GEOSCI MODE 1991-959XGEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合1GONDWANA RESEARCH GONDWANA R 1342-937XGEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合1Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth SystemsJ ADV MODEL 1942-2466METEOROLOG 气象与大气科学2JOURNAL OF CLIMATE J CLIMATE 0894-8755METEOROLOG 气象与大气科学2JOURNAL OF PETROLOGY J PETROL 0022-3530GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球1Nature Geoscience NAT GEOSCI 1752-0894GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合1PRECAMBRIAN RESEARCH PRECAMBRIA 0301-9268GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合1QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS QUATERNARY 0277-3791GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合1QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS QUATERNARY 0277-3791GEOGRAPHY,自然地理2REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS REV GEOPHYS 8755-1209GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球1AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AM J SCI 0002-9599GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合2APPLIED CLAY SCIENCE APPL CLAY SC 0169-1317MATERIALS S 材料科学:综合3APPLIED CLAY SCIENCE APPL CLAY SC 0169-1317MINERALOGY 矿物学3APPLIED CLAY SCIENCE APPL CLAY SC 0169-1317CHEMISTRY, P 物理化学3Atmospheric Measurement Techniques ATMOS MEAS 1867-1381METEOROLOG 气象与大气科学2BASIN RESEARCH BASIN RES 0950-091XGEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合2BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY B VOLCANOL 0258-8900GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合3CHEMICAL GEOLOGY CHEM GEOL 0009-2541GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球2Climate of the Past CLIM PAST 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0094-8276GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合2GEOSTANDARDS AND GEOANALYTICAL RE GEOSTAND GE 1639-4488GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球3HOLOCENE HOLOCENE 0959-6836GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合2HOLOCENE HOLOCENE 0959-6836GEOGRAPHY,自然地理2HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENC HYDROL EAR 1027-5606GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合2HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENC HYDROL EAR 1027-5606WATER RESOU 水资源1INTERNATIONAL GEOLOGY REVIEW INT GEOL REV 0020-6814GEOLOGY 地质学2INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLO INT J CLIMAT 0899-8418METEOROLOG 气象与大气科学3JOURNAL OF GEODESY J GEODESY 0949-7714GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球2JOURNAL OF GEODESY J GEODESY 0949-7714REMOTE SENS 遥感2JOURNAL OF GEODYNAMICS J GEODYN 0264-3707GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球3JOURNAL OF GEOLOGY J GEOL 0022-1376GEOLOGY 地质学2JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH J GEOPHYS RE 0148-0227GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合2JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY J GLACIOL 0022-1430GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合2JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY J GLACIOL 0022-1430GEOGRAPHY,自然地理3JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY J HYDROL 0022-1694GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合2JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY J HYDROL 0022-1694ENGINEERING 工程:土木1JOURNAL 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GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合32049-825X ENGINEERING Geotechnique Letters GEOTECH LET工程:地质20266-1144GEOSCIENCES GEOTEXTILES AND GEOMEMBRANES GEOTEXT GEO地球科学综合30266-1144ENGINEERING GEOTEXTILES AND GEOMEMBRANES GEOTEXT GEO工程:地质1 HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL HYDROGEOL 1431-2174GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合3 HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL HYDROGEOL 1431-2174WATER RESOU水资源3 IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth IEEE J-STARS1939-1404IMAGING SCIE3成像科学与照相2 IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth IEEE J-STARS1939-1404ENGINEERING工程:电子与电IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth IEEE J-STARS1939-1404REMOTE SENS遥感2 IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth IEEE J-STARS1939-1404GEOGRAPHY,自然地理3INT J APPL EA0303-2434REMOTE SENS International Journal of Applied Earth Observation遥感3INT J BIOMET0020-7128ENVIRONMEN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOR环境科学33 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEORINT J BIOMET0020-7128METEOROLOG气象与大气科学INT J BIOMET0020-7128PHYSIOLOGY生理学3 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEORINT J 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2072-7151GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合4Baltica BALTICA 0067-3064GEOLOGY 地质学4Boletim de Ciencias Geodesicas B CIENC GEOD 1982-2170GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球4Boletim de Ciencias Geodesicas B CIENC GEOD 1982-2170REMOTE SENS 遥感4BOLLETTINO DELLA SOCIETA PALEONTOL B SOC PALEON 0375-7633PALEONTOLO 古生物学4Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata B GEOFIS TEO 0006-6729GEOCHEMIST 地球化学与地球4BRAZILIAN JOURNAL OF OCEANOGRAPHY BRAZ J OCEAN 1679-8759OCEANOGRAP 海洋学4BRAZILIAN JOURNAL OF OCEANOGRAPHY BRAZ J OCEAN 1679-8759MARINE & FR 海洋与淡水生物4BULLETIN DE LA SOCIETE GEOLOGIQUE D B SOC GEOL F 0037-9409GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合4BULLETIN OF GEOSCIENCES B GEOSCI 1214-1119GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合4BULLETIN OF GEOSCIENCES B GEOSCI 1214-1119PALEONTOLO 古生物学3BULLETIN OF MARINE SCIENCE B MAR SCI 0007-4977OCEANOGRAP 海洋学4BULLETIN OF MARINE SCIENCE B MAR SCI 0007-4977MARINE & FR 海洋与淡水生物4BULLETIN OF THE GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY O B GEOL SOC D 0011-6297GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合4BULLETIN OF THE GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY O B GEOL SOC F 0367-5211GEOLOGY 地质学4CANADIAN GEOTECHNICAL JOURNAL CAN GEOTECH 0008-3674GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合4CANADIAN GEOTECHNICAL JOURNAL CAN GEOTECH 0008-3674ENGINEERING 工程:地质4CANADIAN JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES CAN J EARTH 0008-4077GEOSCIENCES 地球科学综合4CANADIAN MINERALOGIST CAN MINERAL 0008-4476MINERALOGY 矿物学4CARBONATES AND EVAPORITES CARBONATE E0891-2556GEOLOGY地质学41634-0744GEOLOGY地质学4 CARNETS DE GEOLOGIE CARNETS GEO1634-0744PALEONTOLO古生物学4 CARNETS DE GEOLOGIE CARNETS GEOCentral European Journal of Geosciences CENT EUR J G2081-9900GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合440009-2819GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球CHEMIE DER ERDE-GEOCHEMISTRY CHEM ERDE-G4 CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINE CHINESE J GE0001-5733GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球0254-4059OCEANOGRAPCHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND C HIN J OCEAN海洋学40254-4059LIMNOLOGY湖沼学4 CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND C HIN J OCEANCLAY MINERALS CLAY MINER0009-8558GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 CLAY MINERALS CLAY MINER0009-8558MINERALOGY矿物学4 CLAY MINERALS CLAY MINER0009-8558CHEMISTRY, P物理化学40009-8604GEOSCIENCESCLAYS AND CLAY MINERALS CLAY CLAY M地球科学综合40009-8604MINERALOGYCLAYS AND CLAY MINERALS CLAY CLAY M矿物学40009-8604SOIL SCIENCE土壤科学4 CLAYS AND CLAY MINERALS CLAY CLAY MCLAYS AND CLAY MINERALS CLAY CLAY M0009-8604CHEMISTRY, P物理化学4 COMPTES RENDUS PALEVOL CR PALEVOL1631-0683PALEONTOLO古生物学4 COMPUTATIONAL GEOSCIENCES COMPUTAT G1420-0597GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合43 COMPUTATIONAL GEOSCIENCES COMPUTAT G1420-0597COMPUTER SC计算机:跨学科COMPUTERS AND GEOTECHNICS COMPUT GEO0266-352X GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 COMPUTERS AND GEOTECHNICS COMPUT GEO0266-352X ENGINEERING工程:地质34 COMPUTERS AND GEOTECHNICS COMPUT GEO0266-352X COMPUTER SC计算机:跨学科DOKLADY EARTH SCIENCES DOKL EARTH 1028-334X GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of t EARTH ENV S1755-6910GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of t EARTH ENV S1755-6910PALEONTOLO古生物学4 Earth Science Informatics EARTH SCI IN1865-0473GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合44 Earth Science Informatics EARTH SCI IN1865-0473COMPUTER SC计算机:跨学科EARTH SCIENCES HISTORY EARTH SCI HI0736-623X GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合44 EARTH SCIENCES HISTORY EARTH SCI HI0736-623X HISTORY & PH科学史与科学哲Earth Sciences Research Journal EARTH SCI RE1794-6190GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合42092-7614ENGINEERING Earthquakes and Structures EARTHQ STRU工程:地质32092-7614ENGINEERING Earthquakes and Structures EARTHQ STRU工程:土木31078-7275GEOSCIENCES ENVIRONMENTAL & ENGINEERING GEOSC ENVIRON ENG地球科学综合41078-7275ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTAL & ENGINEERING GEOSC ENVIRON ENG工程:地质41078-7275ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTAL & ENGINEERING GEOSC ENVIRON ENG工程:环境4 EPISODES EPISODES0705-3797GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 ERDE ERDE0013-9998GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4ERDE ERDE0013-9998GEOGRAPHY,自然地理4 Erdkunde ERDKUNDE0014-0015GEOGRAPHY,自然地理41736-4728GEOSCIENCESEstonian Journal of Earth Sciences EST J EARTH S地球科学综合4 ESTUDIOS GEOLOGICOS-MADRID ESTUD GEOL-0367-0449GEOLOGY地质学40935-1221MINERALOGY EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF MINERALOGY EUR J MINERA矿物学4 European Journal of Remote Sensing EUR J REMOT2279-7254REMOTE SENS遥感440812-3985GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球Exploration Geophysics EXPLOR GEOP2095-0195GEOSCIENCESFrontiers of Earth Science FRONT EARTH地球科学综合44 Fundamental and Applied Limnology FUND APPL LI1863-9135MARINE & FR海洋与淡水生物Fundamental and Applied Limnology FUND APPL LI1863-9135LIMNOLOGY湖沼学4 GEMS & GEMOLOGY GEMS GEMOL0016-626X MINERALOGY矿物学4 GEOARABIA GEOARABIA1025-6059GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合40883-6353GEOSCIENCES GEOARCHAEOLOGY-AN INTERNATIONAL J GEOARCHAEO地球科学综合40016-6995PALEONTOLO古生物学4 GEOBIOS GEOBIOS-LYO4 Geocarto International GEOCARTO IN1010-6049IMAGING SCIE成像科学与照相1010-6049GEOSCIENCESGeocarto International GEOCARTO IN地球科学综合41010-6049ENVIRONMENGeocarto International GEOCARTO IN环境科学41010-6049REMOTE SENSGeocarto International GEOCARTO IN遥感44 GEOCHEMICAL JOURNAL GEOCHEM J0016-7002GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球40016-7029GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球GEOCHEMISTRY INTERNATIONAL GEOCHEM INTGEOCHEM-EX1467-7873GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球4 GEOCHEMISTRY-EXPLORATION ENVIRONM1733-8387GEOSCIENCES GEOCHRONOMETRIA GEOCHRONOM地球科学综合41733-8387PALEONTOLO古生物学3 GEOCHRONOMETRIA GEOCHRONOMGEODINAMICA ACTA GEODIN ACTA0985-3111GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 GEODIVERSITAS GEODIVERSIT1280-9659PALEONTOLO古生物学44 Geofisica Internacional GEOFIS INT0016-7169GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球4 Geofizika GEOFIZIKA0352-3659GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria GEOGR FIS DI0391-9838GEOGRAPHY,自然地理40435-3676GEOLOGY地质学3GEOGR ANN AGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSIC0435-3676GEOGRAPHY,自然地理4GEOGR ANN AGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSIC3 GEOINFORMATICA GEOINFORMA1384-6175COMPUTER SC计算机:信息系GEOINFORMATICA GEOINFORMA1384-6175GEOGRAPHY,自然地理4 GEOLOGIA CROATICA GEOL CROAT1330-030X GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 GEOLOGICA BELGICA GEOL BELG1374-8505GEOLOGY地质学4 GEOLOGICA CARPATHICA GEOL CARPAT1335-0552GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 GEOLOGICAL QUARTERLY GEOL Q1641-7291GEOLOGY地质学4GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF DENMARK AND GEOL SURV D1604-8156GEOLOGY地质学4 GEOLOGY OF ORE DEPOSITS GEOL ORE DE1075-7015GEOLOGY地质学4 GEOLOGY OF ORE DEPOSITS GEOL ORE DE1075-7015MINERALOGY矿物学44 GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY GEOMAGN AE0016-7932GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk GEOMAT NAT1947-5705GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合44 Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk GEOMAT NAT1947-5705METEOROLOG气象与大气科学Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk GEOMAT NAT1947-5705WATER RESOU水资源41266-5304GEOSCIENCES Geomorphologie-Relief Processus Environnement GEOMORPHOL地球科学综合41266-5304GEOGRAPHY,自然地理4 Geomorphologie-Relief Processus Environnement GEOMORPHOL40016-8025GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球GEOPHYSICAL PROSPECTING GEOPHYS PROGEOSCIENCE CANADA GEOSCI CAN0315-0941GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 GEOSCIENCES JOURNAL GEOSCI J1226-4806GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合44 GEOSYNTHETICS INTERNATIONAL GEOSYNTH IN1072-6349MATERIALS S材料科学:综合1072-6349GEOSCIENCES GEOSYNTHETICS INTERNATIONAL GEOSYNTH IN地球科学综合41072-6349ENGINEERING GEOSYNTHETICS INTERNATIONAL GEOSYNTH IN工程:地质4 GEOTECTONICS GEOTECTONIC40016-8521GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球GFF GFF1103-5897GEOLOGY地质学4 GFF GFF1103-5897PALEONTOLO古生物学41548-1603REMOTE SENSGIScience & Remote Sensing GISCI REMOTE遥感41548-1603GEOGRAPHY,自然地理4 GIScience & Remote Sensing GISCI REMOTEHELGOLAND MARINE RESEARCH HELGOLAND 1438-387X OCEANOGRAP海洋学44 HELGOLAND MARINE RESEARCH HELGOLAND 1438-387X MARINE & FR海洋与淡水生物HIMALAYAN GEOLOGY HIMAL GEOL0971-8966GEOLOGY地质学44 Idojaras IDOJARAS0324-6329METEOROLOG气象与大气科学Indian Journal of Geo-Marine Sciences INDIAN J GEO0379-5136OCEANOGRAP海洋学41532-3641ENGINEERING International Journal of Geomechanics INT J GEOMEC工程:地质3 ISLAND ARC ISL ARC1038-4871GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 Italian Journal of Geosciences ITAL J GEOSC2038-1719GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 IZVESTIYA ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PIZV ATMOS O0001-4338OCEANOGRAP海洋学44IZV ATMOS O0001-4338METEOROLOG IZVESTIYA ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC P气象与大气科学4 IZVESTIYA-PHYSICS OF THE SOLID EARTH IZV-PHYS SOL1069-3513GEOCHEMIST地球化学与地球Jokull JOKULL0449-0576GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 JOURNAL OF AFRICAN EARTH SCIENCESJ AFR EARTH 1464-343X GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 JOURNAL OF APPLIED GEOPHYSICS J APPL GEOPH0926-9851GEOSCIENCES地球科学综合4 JOURNAL OF APPLIED GEOPHYSICS J APPL GEOPH0926-9851MINING & MIN3矿业与矿物加工JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRYJ ATMOS CHE0167-7764ENVIRONMEN环境科学4。
浅谈科学与非科学的划界问题摘要:科学与非科的划问题的实质,是要分析清楚科学不同于其他任何非科学的观念形式的基本性质是什么,或者说,是要划出一个界线来回答“科学是什么”。
对这个问题的思考,会引发出科学哲学中的许多相关问题,因而具有重大的理论意义,而且对科学的正常发展具有重大的现实意义。
要全面、较正确地区分科学与非科学,我们必须保持一个辩证的态度。
在9周的《科学方法》公共课学习后,我就科学与非科学的划界问题浅谈一下自己总结后的看法。
正文:现代社会,科学迅猛发展,自然科学和社会科学相互影响、相互渗透,科学技术的社会作用日益增强。
什么是科学,成为科学观中的一个最基本的问题,具有重要的理论意义和实际意义。
这时就出现了一个“划界”问题,即科学与非科的划界问题。
一、科学与非科学的含义科学一词,英文为 science,源于拉丁文的 scio,其本意是“知识、学问”,1999 年版《辞海》中将科学定义为“运用范畴、定理、定律等思维形式反映现实世界各种现象的本质的规律的知识体系。
”法国《百科全书》中认为“科学首先不同于常识,科学通过分类,以寻求事物之中的条理。
此外,科学通过揭示支配事物的规律,以求说明事物。
”而英国科学委员会则将科学定义为“以日程现象为基础,用系统的方法对知识的追求、对大自然的理解以及对社会的理解。
”我们可以这样说,科学是一种解决问题分析问题方法但绝对不是全部。
科学是关于自然、社会和思维的知识体系。
或者说,科学是以范畴、定理和定律形式反映世界本质和运动规律的知识体系。
人们能够通过生产实践和学科实验而获得知识,但是,零散的经验知识还不是科学,科学是关于事物本质和普遍规律的理论知识。
科学研究一要强调逻辑分析,二要强调实证检验,两者相结合才能得出规律性的认识。
非科学是指科学以外的所有知识体系或观念。
有的学者将其扩大为科学之外的其它社会要素部分,包括文学、艺术、宗教、民俗、政治、经济、军事活动中的经验和谋略、生产、管理、医疗诊断等活动中的经验诀窍,甚至科学发现和技术发明过程中的直觉思维活动等。
GEOVISUALIZATION AND EPIDEMIOLOGY: AGENERAL DESIGN FRAMEWORKAnthony C. RobinsonGeoVISTA Center, Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State UniversityThis paper describes the creation of a general design framework for a geovisualization toolkit to support epidemiological work. The framework is based on the iterative, user-centered design and development of ESTAT, the exploratory spatio-temporal analysis toolkit. Specifically, this framework is informed by a series of knowledge elicitation and tool assessment sessions with practicing epidemiologists from the National Cancer Institute and the Penn State Hershey Medical School. Users have provided input through focus groups, verbal protocol analysis sessions, and collaboration through an in-depth case study. The framework presented provides a general structure by which evaluation activities can be organized so that all aspects of geovisualization use can be addressed. The general aspects of the framework are also potentially applicable to the user-centered design and development of other geographic analysis methods and tools. INTRODUCTIONGeovisualization tools are born from a desire to build maps that people can interact with and explore in a real-time, dynamic manner. As analysts are faced with ever-increasing amounts of spatial data, we need to provide maps and other visualizations that facilitate exploration. This is a crucial challenge facing designers and developers of geovisualization tools, and it is a major motivation for the research reported here. At the same time, it is important to facilitate exploration for a reason – to create tools that reflect the specific needs of a particular audience.To address these two concerns, I have focused attention on evaluating and exploring use of a geovisualization toolkit designed for epidemiologists. The Exploratory Spatio-Temporal Analysis Toolkit (ESTAT) is designed to provide cancer researchers with visual tools to explore multivariate spatio-temporal data. ESTAT features four display forms (Figure 1); a scatterplot, bivariate mapping tool, parallel coordinate plot (PCP), and time series graph. These tools are dynamically linked, so that mouse movements cause corresponding observations to highlight in each display, and selections can be made in one tool so that it can be studied in the others. The ESTAT application is based on the open-source GeoVISTA Studio platform (Takatsuka and Gahegan 2002), a Java-based visual programming environment designed to support the construction of geovisualization toolkits.The scatter plot (reviewed recently by Gahegan 1998) and bivariate map (Eyton 1984; Olson 1981) are common methods for geovisualization that have a long history in cartography and information visualization. The PCP and its cousin, the time series plot, are also common methods of information visualization, though ESTAT presents a unique combination of these tools in a unified application. The PCP is a method for visualizing many variables at once. In a PCP, each observation is drawn as a string passing through parallel axes, which represent data categories (Inselberg 1985). ESTAT handles temporal data through its time series graph. This graph is a customized x-y graph designed to display a particular variable across time. ESTAT’s internal linkages allow users to explore temporal data and see how they relate to other variables in the map, scatterplot, and PCP.XXII International Cartographic Conference (ICC2005) A Coruña, Spain, 11-16 July 2005Hosted by:The International Cartographic Association (ICA-ACI) ISBN: 0-958-46093-0 Produced by Global CongresosFigure 1: The ESTAT Geovisualization Toolkit. The top left quadrant is the bivariate scatterplot. At bottom left is a bivariate map tool. The top right shows a time series graph, and at bottom right is the parallel coordinate plot. This capture shows colon cancer incidence rates and associated socioeconomic variables.PURPOSEMany authors have outlined the potential utility of geovisual methods for exploratory tasks in health research. This potential prompts a focus on how multiple tools can be combined effectively. It is not enough to craft innovative individual methods – they must be incorporated together in a manner that enables experts to easily adopt these new approaches into their daily workflow. This ‘recipe’ is the heart of the research reported here. The primary ‘ingredients’ for this recipe include answers to the following fundamental questions:1.What are the features and interactions necessary for geovisualization tools that support exploratoryhealth analysis?2.What are the features and interactions necessary for geovisualization applications (sets ofintegrated tools) that support exploratory health analysis?3.How are geovisualization tools situated in epidemiological work today?This paper focuses on assessing the use and usability of the ESTAT toolkit in order to develop a general design framework that addresses these questions among a wide array of related concerns. This design framework outlines the key areas of consideration for the development of a geovisualization toolkit tailored for the exploratory tasks of epidemiology. These elements will then serve as building blocks for the next generation of geovisual evaluation activities.The purpose of this work is twofold: First, its results will impact the development of tools to support spatial epidemiology. The epidemiologists who participated in this research will receive an improved version of ESTAT based on their input. Second, the lessons learned from evaluating ESTAT will provide deeper insight into an effective user-centered design methodology for developing geovisualization tools. These insights will help geographers build interactive tools that have a real-world purpose from their inception – rather than ‘tacking-on’ an application after everything has been designed and built. BACKGROUNDUser issues and interface design are common themes in current geovisualization research. Enabling the efficient and intuitive usage of geovisual representations as interfaces to data remains a crucial challenge to developers of these tools. It is not enough to provide a visual method alone – rather we must develop design principles and evaluation techniques such that geovisualization becomes accessible to users whose expertise exists outside the realm of GIScience. This research addresses challenges related to interfaces and cognitive/usability evaluation outlined by MacEachren and Kraak (2001), particularly their call, “…to develop a comprehensive user-centered design approach to geovisualization usability.”The assessment approach reported here is motivated by a number of recent evaluation efforts in geovisualization research (Andrienko et al. 2002; Edsall 2003; Haklay and Tobon 2003; Montello et al. 2003; Slocum et al. 2003; Suchan 2002), and many of the methods described herein are inspired by aspects of this body of work. An essential aspect of nearly all of these studies is a reliance on multiple convergent methods. Work by MacEachren et al. (1998) is a early example of convergent methods in geovisualization usability research, and the research reported here relies on a broad range of convergent techniques.User-Centered DesignThe central theme that drives this research is a desire to fit geovisualization tools more precisely to the users that (may) need them. The efforts to assess ESTAT that are reported herein are part of a design process (Figure 2) that incorporates end-users in each stage. User input and knowledge about their work domain are built into this process in a variety of ways.Figure 2: The user-centered design process.The first stage, work domain analysis, is characterized by communication of ideas and requirements between the client (in this case, NCI) and developers (GeoVISTA) as well as research on the development side into the work of epidemiology. Conceptual development refers to the complete plan of features that is the result of work domain analysis. During this stage, layouts, tools, and the architecture are discussed and graphical concept prototypes are created. This stage iterates through multiple designs, and each benefits from stakeholder feedback. After conceptual development, prototyping begins. In this stage, initial working versions of the application are created. Next, Interaction/usability assessment activities are developed and executed. These are crucial to understanding the pieces of an application that work well, as well as thosethat need further re-design. Implementation follows assessment activities, and typically results in additional design suggestions. The final stage is debugging. In this portion of the process the application is adjusted to enhance stability, compatibility, and performance.This paper focuses on the interaction and usability assessment stage. Assessments are valuable because they often uncover features that need to be added or scenarios in which tools might be employed for which they were not originally designed. In this paper, the term ‘assessment’ refers to formal and informal evaluation of both the usability of tools as well as the interactions that they enable. Formal assessments may take place in a laboratory where audio and video is captured while users work with an application. They may also include interviews and focus groups to solicit reactions to the application. Informal assessment occurs as end-users try prototypes and provide comments, questions, and ideas. Informal assessment activities can also occur on the development side as the application is internally critiqued. Formal and informal methods have been used during the design of ESTAT.Assessment MethodsFour approaches to tool assessment have been used to assess ESTAT, including; card sorting, verbal protocol analysis, focus groups, and ethnographic case studies. These methods were chosen in order to elicit a diverse range of user input. Combining methods such as these can reveal much about the complicated nature of toolkit usage from the individual interface features all the way up to the situation in which toolkits will be applied in the real work environment.Card sorting (Nielsen 1993) is a simple method for assessing the structure of an interface. Users are given 3 x 5 note cards labeled with individual functions, which they arrange in categories according to their preferences.Verbal protocol analysis (VPA) captures user experiences during work as they ‘think aloud’ (Ericsson and Simon 1993). It is valuable for understanding the critical needs of an application as well as the expectations a user may have. Typically, users are given a task to achieve using an application, and they are encouraged to verbalize their thought processes as they work. The VPA techniques used in this research were augmented with video captures of user interaction. Video is an important source of information for coding VPA results during software use, as mouse gestures and other actions are not typically verbalized by users. For this research, I relied on simple observation of task performance as I transcribed each participant’s verbal reports. This kind of video analysis uses video as an indirect representation; to provide clarification to other forms of analysis (McNeese 2004).Focus groups (Morgan et al. 1998) solicit ideas and feedback through group discussions. They are moderated by a discussion leader who asks questions and prompts for elaboration as described in advance by those who are sponsoring the session. I used focus groups to capture experiences with ESTAT and as a forum for issues that situate the potential usefulness of geovisualizations for epidemiology. Ethnographic case studies combine a real-world application of methods with participant-observation practices (Yin 1994). Case studies are often undertaken as proof-of-concept exercises to demonstrate the utility of a particular tool or method. Ethnographic case studies are different in the sense that they are undertaken not only to evaluate tool utility, but also so that researchers may observe how work takes place around these tools. Data from such studies are usually collected ad hoc, in notes, through informal and formal communication with subjects, and from direct observation. While ethnographic case studies require a significant time commitment they typically provide deep knowledge of the situated work experience. The Assessment ProcessSince October of 2003, a number of assessments have focused on evaluating ESTAT. Initially we focused on rapid prototyping and quick assessments using GIScience students. This was followed by task analysis sessions and focus groups with actual end-users at NCI in February of 2004. After these activities, a long-term case study collaboration with an epidemiologist took place. Each of these evaluations providedvaluable input into the continued design of the ESTAT toolkit. The details of these activities and their results have been presented elsewhere (Robinson et al. 2005).In December of 2004, task analysis and focus group sessions took place at NCI headquarters, in their state-of-the-art User Centered Informatics Research Lab. The VPA technique was applied with five epidemiologists using ESTAT to accomplish two epidemiological tasks. Following VPA sessions, users were asked to discuss their experiences with ESTAT in a focus group. During both of these activities video logs were captured showing the user’s screen as well as an inset of their upper body.Transcriptions of these videos were created, and subsequently coded for analysis. A detailed report on the content and results of this evaluation activity is forthcoming (Robinson, In Progress) A sample coded transcript, as well as task analysis and focus group questions are available at/acr181/appendices.doc .A GENERAL DESIGN FRAMEWORKThe results of ESTAT evaluation activities have unveiled a general approach to toolkit design and development. This general design framework provides a structure for evaluations to follow. The framework uses an increasingly large scale (in the vernacular definition) to describe its critical elements. At the smallest scale, evaluations must focus on individual tools. Next, the applications, that wrap together and coordinate individual tools, should be evaluated. Moving further upward, the framework calls for evaluations to examine geovisual analysis strategies. Finally, at the largest scale, evaluations must consider the range of externalities that impact the situation in which a geovisualization toolkit is (or will be) utilized. The following sections describe a selected set of preliminary details about each of these key areas of consideration (a more comprehensive analysis is in preparation (Robinson, In Progress).Individual ToolsAt the smallest scale, individual tools require close attention to interface details and interactivity. ESTAT evaluations have shown that every icon and button must be carefully scrutinized for clarity in purpose and usage. Users expect rollover descriptions to make sense immediately, and for help files to be available on demand to explain complicated procedures.Linked brushing and selection are commonly available in geovisualization tools. In ESTAT, the fact that the interface is very nearly “alive” was the most novel feature to those who helped evaluate the toolkit. While many users were able to immediately understand how to take advantage of this interactivity, the lack of explicit methods to undo changes and return to default setups made it difficult to conduct a thorough exploration of the data available. While it remains a major challenge to program an undo method to capture everything a user does in a linked and coordinated environment like ESTAT, even adding a simple undo method that would allow control over the most recent actions in addition to a reset method to restore defaults would provide users sufficient means to iteratively explore and analyze. This is most appropriately addressed at the individual tool level because each visualization tool has its own unique way of visually communicating brushing events and selections.Feedback from our users has shown that our desire to provide as much control as possible over the look and feel of the user interface should not obscure the most commonly used features. Moreover, the initial setup should look as ‘standard’ as is reasonable. This was particularly the case with our time series graph, which was initially very similar in look and feel to our parallel coordinate plot, and therefore caused a great deal of confusion as some users thought there were two PCP’s, or they were unsure as to which was displaying temporal data and which was not. We conducted a quick survey of the common representation methods for time series graphs and retooled the interface accordingly (Figure 3). Initial response to the changes by our colleagues at NCI has been positive.Figure 4: The old time series graph is shown above the new design. The old design drew heavily upon the PCP tool, and therefore appeared visually similar. The new design features a layout drawn from a survey of existing tools that create time series graphs. In the new design, the time scale and variable information are emphasized.ApplicationsMoving ahead, evaluation activities need to focus attention on the composition of applications. Devising the proper combination of individual tools together into a unified and efficient whole is a non-trivial problem. Strong internal linkages were needed in order to coordinate every view in precisely the same manner. As an example, metadata descriptions were made available in the PCP, time series graph, and data loader. These were all tools that the lead developer on ESTAT had created himself. The map and scatterplot were originally Java beans developed by other members of the GeoVISTA Center. Users were not able to reconcile the fact that metadata appeared to be available only in some tools, and not all of them. Subsequently, we have adopted a more proactive stance on issues of consistency like this. Additionally, users often mentioned the need for specific external linkages to other software tools they use during normal work. Most epidemiologists who worked with ESTAT use statistical analysis software (including SAS, S Plus, and R) to accomplish their daily work. One scenario that emerged often was that analysts wished to explore their data using ESTAT and then select a subset of variables to export out to one of these other statistical packages for rigorous analysis.Geovisual AnalysisThe work attempted with a geovisualization toolkit requires a close examination of the paths and processes involved with geovisual analysis. In the case of ESTAT, careful concern for eliciting the process of epidemiology in its current form was needed in order to imagine the ways in which ESTAT would augment that in a positive manner. Analysts are busy already – so designers and developers must pay close attention to what work is being attempted and in which ways new tools are going to benefit this situation.ESTAT evaluations revealed that epidemiologists will often attempt confirmatory analysis before or as part of exploratory analysis. We originally designed ESTAT with exploratory tasks in mind, but in several instances analysts pointed out their desire to first confirm what they already knew with ESTAT to verify the visual reports with their existing domain knowledge.Additionally, many epidemiologists wished to see a greater emphasis on statistical methods to augment geovisualization. General skepticism of purely visual reporting was alleviated to a large extent after initial re-design efforts added a number of summary statistics that provided additional numerical evidence. During case study collaboration, these supplemental statistics enabled our analysis of patterns of colon cancer in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky (Figure 4). In that instance, the epidemiologist wished to start using ESTAT by confirming it should show the same correlation values he had computed on his own using traditional means.Figure 4: Using category median summary lines to look at state-to-state differences across socioeconomic indicators and colon cancer incidence in Appalachia. Here, the summary line for Pennsylvania has been highlighted in the PCP (the darkest purple line), and the map has updated to show only that subset. The map shows the rate of ascending colon cancer incidence versus access to doctors, the darkest counties showing high rates of cancer and high access to doctors.ExternalitiesIt is evident, after the long run of iterative user-centered design and evaluation activities, that there are a wide range of external factors that are important design considerations. It is often the case that as we approach research from the perspective of GIScience experts, we wish to control the offhand remarks and casual reactions of users to our tools, as they are not the specific focus of our evaluations. However, if we decide to listen closely and capture as much of what our users tell us as possible, trends often emerge. With ESTAT, I have noticed a great deal of interest in data issues. Users are excited about the tools I present them, and they are eager to imagine the ways in which they will make good use of them. The most common caveat they have, however, is that they assume there will be an inherent problem loading the data they use into our toolkit. A surprising number of epidemiologists I have worked with are aware of the trials and tribulations that commercial GIS tools present analysts when they try to import and merge data. The assumption then is that new tools must be based on this same technological structure and therefore will bejust as impossible to use for the non-GIS expert who has no time to learn about constructing spatial databases.Additional externalities were mentioned by epidemiologists during the various ESTAT evaluation activities. In focus groups, users mentioned current debates within epidemiology regarding the validity of ecological studies. They also mentioned their concern that analysts outside of federal agencies would not have sufficient access to technical infrastructure and support in order to best take advantage of tools like ESTAT. Finally, a number of users discussed how new tools and methods were adopted by their colleagues, and revealed that without specific encouragement from their supervisors, they were reluctant to adopt any new approaches.DISCUSSIONPrior work to evaluate geovisualization toolkits has often mentioned specific design elements or piecemeal recommendations as a result of evaluation activities. The general framework I propose here serves to clarify the relevant goals of future evaluation work with geovisualization toolkits. It is essential to address each of the major areas of the framework, from individual tools to externalities, in order to completely consider all of the critical elements required to make toolkits usable in and of themselves as well as useful in the daily work of an expert analyst.By focusing on direct feedback from our users over the iterative process of design, ESTAT has evolved steadily into a usable and efficient toolkit for exploratory epidemiology. Colleagues in the GeoVISTA Center have enjoyed the quick and comprehensive feedback that ESTAT evaluations have generated, and as a result the entire design and development team now approaches work with an ingrained understanding that our tools must support real world work, done by real world users as much as they must demonstrate innovative methods and technology.In the near future we will introduce the ESTAT toolkit in its refined form to a wider audience of epidemiologists at NCI. We are working on web-based feedback mechanisms for new users to take advantage of and inform us of their reactions to the tools as well as inevitable bugs and other problems that we will need to fix. A frequently updated build of the ESTAT toolkit is available via the web through the GeoVISTA Center at /grants/nci-esda/tutorials.html. Sample data is also provided, in addition to a detailed user guide.FUTURE WORKThe findings of this work are tailored to experiences with supporting cancer epidemiology amongst a number of users at a federal agency. While the details may differ, it is likely that the general framework proposed here will be transferable to other use contexts.The next step is to apply the general design framework proposed in this paper to a new user-centered design situation. Then it can be critiqued for potential gaps in coverage and to assess whether or not it has sufficiently organized the evaluation process to render design and development more efficient than it was before. As cartographers continue to develop new, flexible geovisualization methods, further research is necessary in order to develop techniques to design and evaluate these new tools for real world applications.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis material is supported by the National Institutes of Health under grant #R01 CA95949-01. The development of ESTAT has been sponsored through a contract from the National Cancer Institute. Additionally, Linda Pickle at NCI has provided invaluable access to her fellow researchers for use as participants, without which none of this research would have been possible. Special thanks go to Jin Chen, the lead developer of the ESTAT toolkit. Finally, I wish to acknowledge the support of Alan MacEachren, who has inspired and guided much of this research.REFERENCESAndrienko, G. L., N. V. Andrienko, H. Voss, F. Bernardo, J. Hipolito, and U. Kretchmer. 2002. Testing the usability of interactive maps in CommonGIS. Cartography and Geographic Information Science29:325-42.Edsall, R. M. 2003. Design and usability of an enhanced geographic information system for exploration of multivariate health statistics. Professional Geographer 55:605-19.Ericsson, K. A., and H. A. Simon. 1993. Protocol analysis: Verbal reports as data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Eyton, J. R. 1984. 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In Progress, Assessing geovisualization in epidemiology: a design framework for an exploratory toolkitSlocum, T., D. Cliburn, J. Feddema, and J. Miller. 2003. Evaluating the usability of a tool for visualizing the uncertainty of the future global water balance. Cartography and Geographic InformationScience 30:299-317.Suchan, T. A. 2002. Usability studies of geovisualization software in the workplace. Proceedings of National Conference for Digital Government Research, Los Angeles, CA, May 19-22. Takatsuka, M., and M. Gahegan. 2002. GeoVISTA Studio: A codeless visual programming environment for geoscientific data analysis and visualization. Computers and Geosciences 28:1131-44.Yin, R. K. 1994. Case study research: Design and methods. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.ABOUT THE AUTHORAnthony Robinson recently finished his M.S. degree in Geography at the Pennsylvania State University. His thesis research has focused on designing a geovisualization toolkit to support exploratory epidemiology for cancer researchers at the National Cancer Institute. Anthony has worked with dozens of users at NCI to evaluate ESTAT (Exploratory Spatio-Temporal Analysis Toolkit). In the fall of 2005, Anthony will begin his PhD studies with his advisor, Alan MacEachren, and he plans to continue working on user issues, design, and new cartographic techniques for medical geographic visualization.。