2018年ICM
问题E:气候变化如何影响地区不稳定?
气候变化的影响，包括不断增加的干旱、冰川的缩小、动植物的变化以及海平面的上升，这些都已经得到了实现，并随着地区的变化而变化。政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)表示，气候变化的净损害成本可能是显
著的。这些影响将会改变人类的生活方式，可能会导致社会和政府结构的弱化和瓦解。因此，不稳定的政府可能导致脆弱的国家。
一个脆弱的国家是政府不能或不愿意为其人民提供基本生活必需品的国家。为了这个问题的目的，“国家”指的是主权国家或国家。作为一个脆弱的国家，一个国家的人口受到诸如自然灾害、耕地减少、天气变化无常和气温上升等气候冲击的影响。在发展中国家普遍存在的不可持续的环境实践、移徙和资源短缺，可能会使治理薄弱的国家进一步恶化(施瓦茨和兰道尔，2003;Theisen, Gleditsch，和Buhaug, 2013)。可以说，叙利亚和也门的干旱进一步加剧了本已脆弱的国家。环境压力本身并不一定会引发暴力冲突，但有证据表明，当它与薄弱的治理和社会分裂相结合时，就会引发暴力冲突。这种融合可以加剧暴力的螺旋上升，通常是潜伏的种族和政治分歧(Krakowka, Heimel，和Galgano 2012)。你的任务如下:
任务1:建立一个模型来决定一个国家的脆弱性，同时衡量气候变化的影响。您的模型应该识别一个状态是脆弱的、脆弱的还是稳定的。它还应确定气候变化如何通过直接或间接的方式增加脆弱性，因为它影响其他因素和指标。
任务2:选择一个确定的十大最脆弱国家脆弱状态指数
(https://www.doczj.com/doc/5414725362.html,/fsi/data/)和确定气候变化可能会增加国家的脆弱性。用你
的模型来展示，如果没有这些影响，国家可能会变得不那么脆弱。
任务3:把你的模型用在另一个国家，而不是排名前十的国家，来衡量它的脆弱性，看看气候变化会在什么程度上和什么时候推动它变得更加脆弱。识别出任何明确的指标。你如何定义一个转折点，并预测一个国家何时能达到这个临界点?
任务4:用你的模型展示哪些国家驱动的干预措施可以减轻气候变化的风险，防止一个国家变成一个脆弱的国家。解释人为干预的影响，并预测这个国家干预的总成本。
任务5:您的模型是否适用于较小的“州”(如城市)或更大的“州”(比如大陆)?如果没有，您将如何修改您的模型?
你的提交应包括:
?单页汇总表,
?您的解决方案不超过20页，最多21页与您的总结。
?注意:参考列表和任何附录不计入21页的限制，并且应该在完成解决方案之后出现。
参考文献:
Krakowka, A.R., Heimel, N., and Galgano, F. “Modeling Environmenal Security in Sub-Sharan Africa –ProQuest.” The Geographical Bulletin, 2012, 53 (1): 21-38.
Schwartz, P. and Randall, D. “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security”, October 2003.
https://www.doczj.com/doc/5414725362.html,/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdf
Theisen, O.M., Gleditsch, N.P., and Buhaug, H. “Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?”
Climate Change, April 2013, V117 (3), 613-625.
有助链接:
Fragile States Index: https://www.doczj.com/doc/5414725362.html,/fsi/
The World Bank:
https://www.doczj.com/doc/5414725362.html,/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/harmonized- list-of-fragile-situations
Camping along the Big Long River Summary In this paper, the problem that allows more parties entering recreation system is investigated. In order to let park managers have better arrangements on camping for parties, the problem is divided into four sections to consider. The first section is the description of the process for single-party's rafting. That is, formulating a Status Transfer Equation of a party based on the state of the arriving time at any campsite. Furthermore, we analyze the encounter situations between two parties. Next we build up a simulation model according to the analysis above. Setting that there are recreation sites though the river, count the encounter times when a new party enters this recreation system, and judge whether there exists campsites available for them to station. If the times of encounter between parties are small and the campsite is available, the managers give them a good schedule and permit their rafting, or else, putting off the small interval time t until the party satisfies the conditions. Then solve the problem by the method of computer simulation. We imitate the whole process of rafting for every party, and obtain different numbers of parties, every party's schedule arrangement, travelling time, numbers of every campsite's usage, ratio of these two kinds of rafting boats, and time intervals between two parties' starting time under various numbers of campsites after several times of simulation. Hence, explore the changing law between the numbers of parties (X) and the numbers of campsites (Y) that X ascends rapidly in the first period followed by Y's increasing and the curve tends to be steady and finally looks like a S curve. In the end of our paper, we make sensitive analysis by changing parameters of simulation and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of our model, and write a memo to river managers on the arrangements of rafting. Key words: Camping；Computer Simulation; Status Transfer Equation
The Keep-Right-Except-To-Pass Rule Summary As for the first question, it provides a traffic rule of keep right except to pass, requiring us to verify its effectiveness. Firstly, we define one kind of traffic rule different from the rule of the keep right in order to solve the problem clearly; then, we build a Cellular automaton model and a Nasch model by collecting massive data; next, we make full use of the numerical simulation according to several influence factors of traffic flow; At last, by lots of analysis of graph we obtain, we indicate a conclusion as follow: when vehicle density is lower than 0.15, the rule of lane speed control is more effective in terms of the factor of safe in the light traffic; when vehicle density is greater than 0.15, so the rule of keep right except passing is more effective In the heavy traffic. As for the second question, it requires us to testify that whether the conclusion we obtain in the first question is the same apply to the keep left rule. First of all, we build a stochastic multi-lane traffic model; from the view of the vehicle flow stress, we propose that the probability of moving to the right is 0.7and to the left otherwise by making full use of the Bernoulli process from the view of the ping-pong effect, the conclusion is that the choice of the changing lane is random. On the whole, the fundamental reason is the formation of the driving habit, so the conclusion is effective under the rule of keep left. As for the third question, it requires us to demonstrate the effectiveness of the result advised in the first question under the intelligent vehicle control system. Firstly, taking the speed limits into consideration, we build a microscopic traffic simulator model for traffic simulation purposes. Then, we implement a METANET model for prediction state with the use of the MPC traffic controller. Afterwards, we certify that the dynamic speed control measure can improve the traffic flow . Lastly neglecting the safe factor, combining the rule of keep right with the rule of dynamical speed control is the best solution to accelerate the traffic flow overall. Key words：Cellular automaton model Bernoulli process Microscopic traffic simulator model The MPC traffic control
2019 MCM/ICM Summary Sheet (Your team's summary should be included as the first page of your electronic submission.) Type a summary of your results on this page. Do not include the name of your school, advisor , or team members on this page. Ecosystems provide many natural processes to maintain a healthy and sustainable environment after human life. However, over the past decades, rapid industrial development and other anthropogenic activities have been limiting or removing ecosystem services. It is necessary to access the impact of human activities on biodiversity and environmental degradation. The main purpose of this work is to understand the true economic costs of land use projects when ecosystem services are considered. To this end, we propose an ecological service assessment model to perform a cost benefit analysis of land use development projects of varying sites, from small-scale community projects to large national projects. We mainly focus on the treatment cost of environmental pollution in land use from three aspects: air pollution, solid waste and water pollution. We collect pollution data nationwide from 2010 to 2015 to estimate economic costs. We visually analyze the change in economic costs over time via some charts. We also analyze how the economic cost changes with time by using linear regression method. We divide the data into small community projects data (living pollution data) and large natural data (industrial pollution data). Our results indicate that the economic costs of restoring economical services for different scales of land use are different. For small-scale land, according to our analysis, the treatment cost of living pollution is about 30 million every year in China. With the rapid development of technology, the cost is lower than past years. For large-scale land, according to our analysis, the treatment cost of industrial pollution is about 8 million, which is lower than cost of living pollution. Meanwhile the cost is trending down due to technology development. The theory developed here provides a sound foundation for effective decision making policies on land use projects. Key words: economic cost , ecosystem service, ecological service assesment model, pollution. Team Control Number For office use only For office use only T1 ________________ F1 ________________ T2 ________________ F2 ________________ T3 ________________ Problem Chosen F3 ________________ T4 ________________ F4 ________________ E
你的论文需要从此开始 请居中 使用Arial14字体 第一作者，第二作者和其他（使用Arial14字体） 1.第一作者的详细地址，包括国籍和email(使用Arial11) 2.第二作者的详细地址，包括国籍和email(使用Arial11) 3.将所有的详细信息标记为相同格式 关键词 列出文章的关键词。这些关键词会被出版方用作关键词索引(使用Arial11字体） 论文正文使用Times New Roman12字体 摘要 这一部分阐述说明了如何为TransTechPublications.准备手稿。最好阅读这些用法说明并且整篇论文都是遵照这个提纲。手稿的正文部分应该是17cm*25cm（宽*高）的格式（或者是6.7*9.8英尺）。请不要在这个区域以外书写。请使用21*29厘米或8*11英尺的质量较好的白纸。你的手稿可能会被出版商缩减20%。在制图和绘表格时候请特别注意这些准则。 引言 所有的语言都应该是英语。请备份你的手稿（以防在邮寄过程中丢失）我们收到手稿即默认为原作者允许我们在期刊和书报出版。如果作者在论文中使用了其他刊物中的图表，他们需要联系原作者，获取使用权。将单词或词组倾斜以示强调。除了每一部分的标题（标记部分的标题），不要加粗正文或大写首字母。使用激光打印机，而不是点阵打印机 正文的组织： 小标题 小标题应该加粗并注意字母的大小写。第二等级的小标题被视为后面段落的一部分（就像这一大段的一小部分的开头） 页码 不要打印页码。请用淡蓝色铅笔在每一张纸的左下角（在打印区域以外）标注数字。 脚注 脚注应该单独放置并且和正文分开理想地情况下，脚注应该出现在参考文献页，并且放在文章的末尾，和正文用分割线分开。 表格 表格（如表一，表二，...）应该放在正文当中，是正文的一部分，但是，要避免文本混乱。一个描述性的表格标题要放在图表的下方。标题应该独立的放在表格的下方或旁边。 表中的单位应放在中括号中[兆伏]如果中括号不可用，需使用大括号{兆}或小括号（兆)。1.这就是脚注
For office use only T1________________ T2________________ T3________________ T4________________ Team Control Number 10709 Problem Chosen B For office use only F1________________ F2________________ F3________________ F4________________ 2011 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM) Summary Sheet (Attach a copy of this page to each copy of your solution paper.) Type a summary of your results on this page. Do not include the name of your school, advisor, or team members on this page. The Coordination of Repeaters Based on the Frequency Division Multiplexing Theory Abstract A repeater is an automated device that extends the range of communications. Interference occurs if repeaters are not far enough apart or transmit on very close frequencies. Our goal is to create an optimal system which has the minimum number of repeaters while achieving high capacity with limited spectrum width. We develop a theoretical model to give a rough estimation of the necessary repeater numbers considering factors such as the radius of the area, the radius of the repeater’s coverage, the number of the simultaneous users, and the available spectrum width. Problem I is solved by two steps. One key issue is to cover the whole area seamlessly and to minimize the overlapping area of the adjacent repeaters’ coverage, thus reducing the co-frequency interference. Regular hexagons are chosen to fill the given area seamlessly instead of circles. Another vital issue is to accommodate 1000 users at the same time. We establish frequency division multiplexing model to solve the insufficiency of the spectrum width. By dividing the available spectrum width, we attain channels that only meet 24.6% of the total demand. We improve the user capacity by divide the area into cells and multiplex the spectrum width in cells far apart to meet the demand. We calculate that at least 13 repeaters are needed. In problem II, as the number of simultaneous users increases from 1,000 to 10,000, while the given spectrum width and the number of PL remain unchanged, we need further expansion of the user capacity. Our model is the combination of the frequency division multiplexing model and the cell division model, and designed to solve the conflict between the rapidly increasing demand and the limited spectrum width. We adopt cell division model to divide the original cells into a proper number of micro cells, and again apply frequency division multiplexing model to the micro cells, thus greatly improving the user capacity. So the result is that 122 repeaters are needed. In problem III, the changes of environment in mountainous areas are analyzed on its influence in communication. We contract a simulation model utilizing MATLAB software considering factors such as the height and the gradient of the mountain and apply it to 3 kinds of conditions. These situations involving in communication failure caused by mountains are analyzed. We calculate and generate the placement of the repeaters to overcome the difficulties in line-of-sight propagation caused by mountainous areas. Combining the frequency division multiplexing model and the cell splitting model, our model can be successfully adopted to solve the insufficiency of spectrum resources and meet the rapidly increasing demand for radio communication.
MCM论文写作常用句型（长文，建议收藏） The expression of ... can be expanded as: ... ...的表达式可扩展为... A is exponentially smaller than B, so it can be neglected. A对B来说呈指数级减小，所以可以忽略不计。 Equation (1) is reduced to: 方程（1）化简为： Substitute the values into equation (3), we get... 把这些值代入方程3，我们得到... According to our first assumption on Page 1, 根据我们第一页的第一个假设， Thus we arrive at the conclusion： 因此我们得到结论： From the model of ..., we find that theoretically, it is almost true that ... 由...模型，我们从理论上证明了... 是真实可信的。 That is the theoretical basis for ... in many application areas. 这是...在很多领域应用的理论基础。 To quantitatively analyze the different requirements of the two applications, we intro duce two measures: 为了定量的分析这两种应用的不同要求，我们介绍来两个量度标准。 We give the criterion that... 我们给出了...的判别标准 According to the criterion of... 根据...的标准 So its expression can be derived from equation (3) with small change. 所以它的表达式可以由方程3做微小改动而推出。 Suppose that ...refers to... 假设...指的是...
Abstract 第一段：写论文解决什么问题 1．问题的重述 a. 介绍重点词开头： 例1：“Hand move” irrigation, a cheap but labor-intensive system used on small farms, consists of a movable pipe with sprinkler on top that can be attached to a stationary main. 例2:……is a real-life common phenomenon with many complexities. 例3：An (effective plan) is crucial to……… b. 直接指出问题： 例1：We find the optimal number of tollbooths in a highway toll-plaza for a given number of highway lanes: the number of tollbooths that minimizes average delay experienced by cars. 例2：A brand-new university needs to balance the cost of information technology security measures with the potential cost of attacks on its systems. 例3：We determine the number of sprinklers to use by analyzing the energy and motion of water in the pipe and examining the engineering parameters of sprinklers available in the market. 例4: After mathematically analyzing the ……problem, our modeling group would like to present our conclusions, strategies, (and recommendations )to the ……. 例5：Our goal is... that (minimizes the time )………. 2．解决这个问题的伟大意义 反面说明。如果没有…… Without implementing defensive measure, the university is exposed to an expected loss of $8.9 million per year. 3．总的解决概述 a．通过什么方法解决什么问题 例：We address the problem of optimizing amusement park enjoyment through distributing Quick Passes (QP), reservation slips that ideally allow an individual to spend less time waiting in line. b．实际问题转化为数学模型 例1 We formulate the problem as a network flow in which vertices are the locations of escorts and wheelchair passengers. 例2 : A na?ve strategy would be to employ the minimum number of escorts to guarantee that all passengers reach their gates on time. c.将问题分阶段考虑 例3：We divide the jump into three phases: flying through the air, punching through the stack, and landing on the ground. 第二、三段：具体分析 1．在什么模型中/ 建立了什么模型 a. 主流模型
exclusively专门 undobtedly毫无疑问的 notable 值得注意的 tremedous/significant极大的 notion概念 definition定义——define Interpret……as…… 理解……为 invoke(+模型援引，引用 equation方程式，等式 function 因变量——提示符号的含义 matrix矩阵，模型 constant 常数，常量It requires I t o be a constant for …to be true algorithm演算方法——a general algorithm 通用算法simplify the algorithm 简化算法we have produced a general algrrithm to solve this tpye of problems. derivative微分，倒数antiderivative 不定积分 optimal results 最优结果 invesgate the problem from different point of view调查问题——investgation调查survey 调查 subproblem 子问题，次要问题——major problem 主要问题 metric 度量标准，指标 digit 数字delete some digits element /component 元素
解题思路seek/explore—— explore different ideas探索不同的想法 we seek to device a new model for solving the problem by exploring the new direction suggested by their investigations. 解决方案design/device ——develop/establish/conduct Based on our analysis, we design a model for the problem using integral linear programming(线性积分). We then devise a polynominal-time apprximation algorithm to produce near optimal https://www.doczj.com/doc/5414725362.html,ing integral linear programming.We then device a polynominal-time approximation to We conduct sensitivity analysis on…to find…xxx analysis is al so performed. 解决结果tackle/solve We tackle the problem using the new technique we developed in the previous section.While it is difficult to solve the problem completely, we are able to solve a major subproblem. 计划与打算approach/propose We approach the problem using the proposed method. We propose a new approach to tackling the problem. 词组 Based on…以……为基础 According to根据 Devide …into…——subdivide into细分 …is applied to…使用了……模型来……——we apply our model into将我们的模型运用于Model proves to be efficient in other sports.模型被证明在其他方面有效 ….,which indicates that………反映了 …,which led to the change of…导致了……的变化
Winter is approaching, may the dragon’s wings grow more abundant Summary In the game of thrones, Daenerys Targaryen depicts the image of a dragon. In eastern and western cultures, the phenomenon of dragons is not uncommon. If dragons live in modern society, how can we raise these war monsters? Research, and applied the cross disciplines of biology, physics, and chemistry to build a mathematical model and solve it to achieve the maximum growth of the dragon. Of course, dragons do not exist in real life, so we likened pterosaurs, modern Aircraft and chemical burner to derive the specific physiological characteristics of the dragon to ensure the rationality and scientificity of the research. First, we studied the flight and fire-spitting models of dragons. Through analogical reasoning, our hypothetical dragon's fire-spitting principle is similar to modern alcohol flamethrowers. For dragon flight, we used fluid mechanics to get the dragon's flight speed. And glucose energy loss. Combining the two to get the energy loss model of the dragon. Second, we studied the basic physical characteristics of the dragon. For the relationship between the body length and body age of the dragon, we established an elastic model of growth. Because the weight and body length of dragons have upper and lower limits, in order to comply with basic ecology, we have defined the dragon's bone saturation value as the cut-off value, and conducted a segmented study. When studying the relationship between weight and body length, We know that the weight of the dragon is proportional to the cube of the body length. Then, because the dragon needs resources to replenish like other animals, we built a dragon's food supply model. Suppose that the three dragons have the same competitiveness and the daily sheep Resources are the same. According to ecology, when the number of sheep in a certain area reaches k / 2, we need to migrate the dragon. Finally, the temperature will affect the living environment of the dragon, so the dragon needs to followMigration was selected for changes in temperature, and we selected three areas of drought, cold, and warmth to study the dragon, and integrated the model of the regional area of the dragon by the appealing model. In addition, we wrote a letter to the author of the Song of Ice and Fire, giving some suggestions on the actual ecological foundation of the dragon, hoping to be adopted. Although the dragon does not exist in our real life, the dragon can be broken down into Part of our modern society. For the dragon's flying spitfire energy loss model, we can further study the aircraft's fluid mechanics and modern flamethrowers. The study of non-existent organisms also prepares us for the arrival of new species .
MCM 2015 Summary Sheet for Team 35565 For office use only T1________________ T2________________ T3________________ T4________________ Team Control Number 35565 Problem Chosen B For office use only F1________________ F2________________ F3________________ F4________________ Summary The lost MH370 urges us to build a universal search plan to assist searchers to locate the lost plane effi-ciently and optimize the arrangement of search plans. For the location of the search area, we divided it into two stages, respectively, to locate the splash point and the wreckage?s sunk point. In the first stage, we consider the types of crashed aircraft, its motion and different position out of contact. We also consider the Earth?s rotation, and other factors. Taking all these into account, we establish a model to locate the splash point. Then we apply this model to MH370. we can get the splash point in the open water is 6.813°N 103.49°E and the falling time is 52.4s. In the second stage, considering resistances of the wreckage in different shapes and its distribution affected by ocean currents, we establish a wreckage sunk point model to calculate the horizontal displacement and the angle deviation affected by the ocean currents. The result is 1517m and 0.11°respectively. Next, we extract a satellite map of submarine topography and use MATLAB to depict seabed topography map, determining the settlement of the wreckage by using dichotomy algorithm under different terrains. Finally, we build a Bayesian model and calculate the weight of corresponding area, sending aircrafts to obtain new evidence and refresh suspected wreckage area. For the assignment of the search planes, we divide it into two stages, respectively, to determine the num-ber of the aircraft and the assignment scheme of the search aircraft. In the first stage, we consider the search ability of each plane and other factors. And then we establish global optimization model. Next we use Dinkelbach algorithm to select the best n search aircrafts from all search aircrafts. In the second stage, we divide the assignment into two cases whether there are search aircrafts in the target area. If there is no search aircraft, we take the search area as an arbitrary polygon and establish the subdivision model. Considering the searching ability of each plane, we divide n small polygons into 2n sub-polygons by using NonconvexDivide algorithm, which assigns specific anchor points to these 2n sub-polygons re-spectively. If there exist search aircrafts, we divide the search area into several polygons with the search aircrafts being at the boundary of the small polygons. To improve search efficiency, we introduce” ma x-imize the minimum angle strategy” to maximize right-angle subdivision so that we can reduce the turning times of search aircraft. When we changed the speed of the crashed plane about 36m/s, the latitude of the splash point changes about 1°.When a wreck landing at 5.888m out from the initial zone, it will divorce from suspected searching area, which means our models are fairly robust to the changes in parameters. Our model is able to efficiently deal with existing data and modify some parameters basing the practical situation. The model has better versatility and stability. The weakness of our model is neglect of human factors, the search time and other uncontrollable factors that could lead to deviation compared to practical data. Therefore, we make some in-depth discussions about the model, modifying assumptions establish-