第9卷第6期2009年12月
交通运输系统工程与信息
Journal of T ransportation Systems Engineering and In formation T echnology
V ol19 N o16
December 2009
文章编号:100926744(2009)0620120210
系统工程理论与方法
Estim ating Modal Shift of C ar T ravelers to
Bus on I ntroduction of Bus Priority System
VE DAGIRI P.1,ARAS AN V.T.2
(1.Department of Civil Engineering,Indian Institute of T echnology Bombay,P owai,Mumbai400076,India;
2.T ransportation Engineering Division,Department of Civil Engineering,Indian Institute of T echnology Madras,
Chennai600036,India)
Abstract: This study is concerned with estimation of the probable shift of car users to bus due to increase in its level of service after providing exclusive bus lanes on Indian city roads carrying heterogeneous traffic.The quantum of increase in level of service of bus due to introduction of exclusive bus lane was determined using a recently de2 veloped simulation m odel of heterogeneous traffic flow.The data of the other factors(variables)that might cause m odal shift from car to bus were collected through home2interview survey based on the stated preference approach.
A binary Logit m odel of m ode2choice was then calibrated using the collected data and the m odel was als o validated
using holdout sam ple.Through this study a set of causal factors,with reliable and predictable data base,to ex2 plain the variation in shift behaviour of pers onal vehicle users to buses consequent on the increase in the level of service of buses,has been identified.A m ode2choice probability curve to depict the possible m odal shift of car use2 rs to bus is developed,taking the difference in travel times of the tw o2m odes as the basis to serve as a user friendly tool to analyze the possible m odal shift for a wide range of values of the inv olved variable.
K ey w ords: public transportation;heterogeneous traffic;travel time;exclusive bus lane;m ode choice m odels
C LC number: U12Document code: A
公交优先条件下小汽车出行向公交转移
的预测模型研究
VEDAGIRI P.31,ARASAN V.T.2
(1.印度理工学院孟买分校土木工程系,印度孟买400076;
2.印度理工学院马德拉斯分校土木工程系,印度钦奈600036)
摘要: 研究印度城市道路上设置公交专用道后小汽车出行向公交转移的可能性.借助新的混合交通流仿真模型测定设置公交专用道后公交服务水平改善状况.基于陈述偏好入户调查的抽样数据,本文还引入其他影响出行方式转移的变量,标定出行方式选择二元Logit模型.根据实际和预测数据,确定了公交服务水平改善条件下小汽车出行向公交转移的一系列主要影响因素.基于两种方式出行时间差,绘制出行方式转换概率曲线,并为多变量宽值域条件下交通方式转移的预测提供一种易于操作的方法.
关键词: 公共交通;混合交通流;出行时间;公交专用道;出行方式选择模型
中图分类号: U12文献标志码: A
收稿日期:2009207206 修回日期:2009210219 录用日期:2009210228
作者简介:VE DAGIRI P.,男,博士.
3通讯作者:transpoveda@https://www.doczj.com/doc/572564130.html,
1 I ntroduction
R oad2based passenger m obility in India has in2 creased tremendously over the years.The rapid increase in m otorized m obility during the last tw o decades or s o is primarily due to the increase in urban population as a re2 sult of both internal growth and migration from rural ar2 eas and small towns.The high rate of growth of Indian economy has als o contributed significantly to the increase in demand.Bus is the main urban transit system used in m ost Indian cities and gradually,its level of service is declining due to inadequate capacity and managerial and financial problems.In the absence of an adequate and efficient bus transit system,the potential bus users cur2 rently use private transport m odes—mainly m otorized tw o—wheelers and,to s ome extent,cars.Als o,s ome of them res ort to the use of another para transit m ode called auto2rickshaws(it is a m otorized version of the traditional rickshaw,a small three2wheeled cart driven by a pers on).Thus,a large number of private and para2 transit vehicles have entered into the market to meet the travel demand.As the available road space is limited, the proliferation of these vehicles results in severe con2 gestions,inordinate delay,high2energy consum ption, (particularly of fossil fuels),and intense pollution of the environment.
The traffic on the roads of Indian cities is highly heterogeneous com prising vehicles of wide ranging static and dynamic characteristics.The vehicles occupy any lateral position on the road,depending on the availabili2 ty of road space,at a given instant of time without any lane discipline and it is nearly im possible to im pose lane discipline under such conditions.Under the said hetero2 geneous traffic flow conditions,buses,being relatively larger vehicles,find it difficult to maneuver through the mixed traffic and are subjected to frequent acceleration and deceleration leading to lower speed and discom fort to both the driver and passengers.This als o results in enor2 m ous delay and uncertainty to bus passengers and conse2 quently,the level of service of buses gets reduced con2 siderably making the bus,a less attractive m ode of transport.Indian cities desperately need im proved and expanded public transport service and not pers onal vehi2 cles.This requires both an increase in quantity as well as quality of bus transport service and effective applica2 tion of demand as well as supply2side management mea2 sures.This g oal can be attained by encouraging bus transport by assigning priority to it.One of the comm on bus preferential treatments is provision of reserved bus lanes on major urban roads to facilitate faster m ovement of buses,which will make the m ode m ore attractive. Provision of exclusive road space,thus,will enhance the level of service of buses and this may als o result in shift of s ome of the pers onal vehicle users to buses.The m otorized pers onal vehicles available for travel,in Indi2 an cities are,car,auto2rickshaw—three wheeled m otor2 ized transit vehicle and m otorized tw o2wheelers.As the possible shift of travelers from these pers onal m odes to bus is independent of one another,the probability of shift has been studied through three separate binary choice m odels.This paper is concerned with the study of the possible shift of car users to bus due to increased level of service of bus,after the provision of exclusive bus lanes.
2 R evie w of earlier studies
A m odal shift occurs when one m ode gains a com2 parative advantage in a travel market over another.The com parative advantage can take various forms,such as costs,capacity,time,flexibility,or reliability.De2 pending on the kind of passengers traveling and their cir2 cumstances(s ocio2economic characteristics,purpose of trip,etc.),the relative im portance of each of these fac2 tors vary.M ode choice m odels could be effectively di2 vided into tw o classes:(i)m odels that cover all avail2 able m odes,and(ii)m odels focusing on selected m odes only[1].The former type of m odel is necessary,where the demand forecast is required for all m odes,as w ould be the case if a broader s ocial cost2benefit appraisal of a transport scheme is conducted.I f one is s olely interested only in tw o m odes,a binary choice m odel[2-5]is m ore appropriate.F or exam ple,to study how many travelers may be attracted from car to bus,only car and bus need to be taken into consideration.
As this study pertains to the analysis of m odal shift from car to bus,the review of literature presented here is con fined to the research w orks related to the choice be2
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第6期Estimating M odal Shift of Car T ravelers to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority System
haviour of travelers,under conditions wherein one of the inv olved m odes is bus and the analysis is related to m od2 al shift.T ischer and D obs on[6]studied the factors, which influence the intentions of the single2occupant commuters to switch to buses and carpools and suggested operating policies consistent with the intent to encourage the use of high2occupancy vehicles.They found that in buses,convenience is the m ost im portant variable ass o2 ciated with the shift intention.They als o found that per2 ceptions of carpool com fort do not appear to be im por2 tant,rather,perceptions of carpool schedule flexibility, cost,safety,and a short wait in traffic were found to be the prime factors ass ociated with potential shift to carpool.Alvinsyah et al[7].developed a binomial Logit m odel based on stated preference(SP)data to study the response of the travelers in using the proposed Jakarta bus2way system.T ravel time and travel cost were con2 sidered as the main variables to develop utility func2 tions.Based on these m odal characteristics,and the dif2 ferent service strategies offered,peoples’perception, and their probability of selecting the proposed system is predicted.The results show a wide range of peoples’perception and their probability of choosing the better service.
Nurdden et al[8].identified the factors that prevent pers onal transport users from utilizing public transport, s o that rational policies could be formulated to encourage greater utilization of public transport.Binary Logit m od2 els were developed inv olving car and bus,and car and train.The m ost im portant variables,found likely to en2 courage the use of public transport,were:reduced travel time,walking distance to public transport stations and subsidized fare.G ebeyehu and T akano[9]studied the cit2 izens’perceptions of the bus condition,as a determining factor for their choice of bus transportation,and devel2 oped a binary Logit m odel to analyze traveler choice be2 havior.The result of the study shows that citizens’per2 ceptions of the three chosen bus2transit condition aspects (fare,convenience,and frequency)have significant in2 fluences on public2transport2m ode choice.
Fillone et al[10].developed the nested Logit m ode2 ls,which divided the available m odes into private and public,and one of the public transport m odes,namely,bus was further sub divided into air2conditioned and non air2conditioned buses.One interesting output of this study is with regard to the utility ranking of m odes,ob2 tained based on the derived utility equations of each m ode.With this utility2ranking result,the extent of ac2 tual share of bus in the travel market was quantified. The results show that,there is a need to redefine the role of buses in metro Manila.Hensher and Reyes[11] studied the reas ons for individuals’choice to undertake trip chains and the extent to which trip com plexity is a barrier to the propensity to use bus transport.Discrete choice m odels are developed to identify the role that s o2 cioeconomic and dem ographic characteristics of house2 holds have on the propensity to the use of car and public transport.The study suggests that,as the number of ve2 hicles per household increases,the relative utility yield2 ed from bus transport use,for w ork,decreases.
M ackett[12]ieentified different policy actions to reduce car use for different ty pes of trips and the actions that are required to m eet the travel needs that the car currently ful2 fils.T hen,the evidence on why people used their cars for a set of real sh ort trips is considered in terms of a number of dim ensions including age,sex,and trip purpose.T his is followed by a discussion of the alternative m odes to the car that drivers say that they m ight ad opt and the factors, which they say,w ould m ake them consider s w itching to these alternatives.T he analysis of the results fr om the sur2 veys sh ows that,“im pr oving public transport”is the specif2 ic action,which drivers say,is m ost likely to attract them out of their cars.
All these studies,in summary,are m otivating,and shed s ome light on the factors that influence the way in2 dividuals decide to choose their m odes of travel and the contrasting roles of perceptions and satis factions in their ability to respond to switching intentions to buses.At present there is no research material available in behav2 ioral study of switching intention of pers onal vehicle use2 rs to buses,under Indian traffic conditions,and this study has been done by taking the methodologies and re2 sults of the reported earlier studies as general guidelines.
3 Methodology
As per the available literature,tw o different ap2
221交通运输系统工程与信息2009年12月
proaches are used in m ode choice analysis :(1)revealed preference (RP )approach and (2)stated preference (SP )approach.The RP approach has been used to m odel m ode 2choice when data on actual choice of m ode by travelers are available.Whereas ,the SP approach has been used to analyze the response of people to hypo 2thetical choice situations these ,of course can cover a wider range of attributes and conditions than the real system.In the present study ,SP approach has been adopted for the m odel development.Because the m odes considered were only bus and car a binary choice m odel has been used.As the interpretation and specification is straight forward in the Logit m odel than the
probit m od 2el ,the Logit m odel was adopted for the study.The dif 2ferent elements related to the general methodology of ap 2proach to the m odeling process are depicted in the form of a flow chart in Fig. 1.The shaded portions of the flow 2chart show the sequence of conceptual steps related to the m odel development in the present study.
Fig.1 M odeling approach for m odal shift analysis
4 Model speci fication
The m odel specification here is based on utility the 2ory ,which is based on the assum ption that individuals select that m ode which maximizes their utility (U ).Utility theory enables prediction of changes in choices that occur when an attribute of one of the alternatives changes.M oreover ,the utility based m odel is able to capture differences in the responses of different individu 2als to the same attribute change.The utility of an alter 2native ‘i ’is assumed to be made up of tw o terms :a deterministic term (V )representing systematic and ob 2served effects and a random term (ε
)representing unob 2served factors affecting the choice.The random 2error term εis assumed to be independently and identically distributed as per the G umbel distribution.As per this
specification ,an individual is likely to shift from car to bus if the utility of bus m ode is m ore than the utility of car.Without loss of generality ,the utility of shift is giv 2en as the difference between utilities of bus and car.Therefore ,a traveler is likely to shift from car to bus if the utility difference ,U diff ≥0.The utility of shifting is als o assumed to be made up of tw o terms :a determinis 2tic term (V diff =V Bus -V Car )representing systematic and observed effects and a random term (εdiff =εBus -εCar )representing unobserved factors affecting choice.Based on the said assum ptions ,it can be shown that εdiff is dis 2tributed as per the logistic distribution.Therefore ,the probability of shift can be obtained :
P shift =Pr (U diff ≥0)=Pr (V diff +εdiff ≥0)
=e V
diff
1+e V
diff
≥0(1)
The deterministic term V diff is assumed to be given by a linear 2in 2parameters specification.Accordingly ,
V diff =A 0+A 1X 1+…+A n X n
(2)
Therefore ,the probability of shift can be given as
P shift
=e V
diff
1+e V
diff
=e A 0+A 1X 1+A 2X 2
+…+A n X
n
1+e A 0+A 1X 1+A 2X 2
+…+A n X
n
(3)
where P shift =Probability of shift from car to bus m ode ;
V diff =Deterministic utility function of difference in utili 2
ties of bus and car ;A 0,A 1,A 2…are the m odel pa 2rameters to be estimated ;X 1,X 2…are variables influ 2encing m odal shift.
5 Data base for SP survey
As the objective here is to predict the aggregate shift of car users to bus ,consequent on reduction in travel time of buses due to provision of exclusive bus lanes ,it is necessary to estimate the possible reduction in travel time of buses due to provision of exclusive bus lanes under the prevailing roadway and traffic condi 2tions.F or this purpose ,the Chennai city ,in the s outh eastern part of India ,was considered as an exam ple.The major roads in Chennai city ,which carry a significant am ount of bus traffic ,are either six 2lane di 2vided or eight 2lane divided roads.Thus ,the width of
3
21第6期Estimating M odal Shift of Car T ravelers to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority System
road space available for one2way m ovement on these roads,is equivalent to either three or four lanes,which are sufficient to allocate one lane exclusively for buses. T o conduct the stated preference survey,it is necessary to obtain the speeds of buses and cars,on these tw o types of roads for a wide range of traffic2v olume condi2 tions,and this can be achieved through appropriate traf2 fic simulation experiments.As the available simulation m odels are based on fairly hom ogeneous traffic condi2 tions,where strict lane discipline exists,these m odels are not suitable for simulating Indian traffic conditions. Hence,a recently developed and validated m odel of the highly heterogeneous traffic flow prevailing on Indian roads[13]was used for this study.The simulation m odel2 ing framew ork is explained briefly here to provide a background for the study.As per the simulation frame2 w ork,the entire road space is considered as a single unit and the vehicles are represented as rectangular blocks on the road space,the length and breadth of the blocks representing respectively,the overall length and the overall breadth of the vehicles.The front left corner of the rectangular block is taken as the reference point, and the position of vehicles on the road space is identi2 fied based on the coordinates of the reference point with respect to an origin chosen at a convenient location on the space.The simulation m odel uses the interval scan2 ning technique with fixed increment of time.
F or the purpose of this study,a traffic com position representing the mean com position of traffic on the major roads of Chennai city,was considered(Fig.2).The roadway width for the simulation of traffic flow in one di2 rection,was fixed as11.0m(three lanes)and14.5m (four lanes).The traffic flow on the assumed arterials, was simulated,for road conditions with and without bus lane,for a wide range of traffic v olume(from near free flow condition to capacity level).In actual practice,the stoppage of buses at bus stops increases the journey time for buses.Hence,it is better to account for the stoppage of buses while justifying provision of exclusive bus lanes.T o incorporate the speed reduction su ffered by buses due to stops on exclusive bus lanes,a survey was conducted on typical urban arterial roads in Chennai city to measure the dwell time of buses.The average dwell time for buses,obtained through the survey,is17s, and the average distance between bus stops is1.02km. Then,using the basic equations of m otion,the time and distance required for acceleration and deceleration of buses at a bus stop is calculated.The journey speed of buses and cars,for the roadway and traffic conditions considered,is depicted in Fig.
3.
LC V—light commercial vehicles;M.Th.W—m otorised three2wheelers;M.T.W—m otorised tw o2wheelers
Fig.2 Representative traffic com position
Fig.3 Journey speed of buses and cars
As per the recommendations of Indian R oads C ongress[14],the desirable level of service for urban roads is‘C’and the corresponding traffic v olume level is equal to0.7times the capacity.Hence,it w ould be appropriate to consider this value(v olume2to2capacity ratio=0.7)as the base for determining the speed differ2 ence between bus and car.Accordingly,it can be found that the difference in journey speed(alternatively the difference in in2vehicle travel time),between buses(on exclusive lane)and cars,expressed as the percentage of bus speed,falls in the range of about16%to48%, when both the roadway conditions(three and four lane) are considered together.This result was used as the base to prepare the questionnaire for the SP survey.
421交通运输系统工程与信息2009年12月
6 Study area and survey design
T o be able to use a m odel in a practical situation, it is necessary to estimate the m odel parameters using survey data.T o study the effect of reduction in travel time on the demand for bus travel,a SP questionnaire was prepared.The data of the factors(variables)that might cause m odal shift from car to bus were collected through home2interview survey conducted in a residential area named,T odhunter Nagar,in the s outhern part of Chennai city,India,which has reas onable accessibility to bus service(walking time to bus stop varies from3to 15min).The home2interview survey was carried out in households owning cars.During the survey,the respon2dents were asked to base their response on their previous day trips.The questionnaire had provision to collect data on the following attributes:(a)gender,(b)age,(c) walking time to bus stop,(d)trip purpose,and(e) willingness or otherwise to shift to bus for various in2ve2 hicle travel time differences(bus travel time being0, 10%,20%,30%,and40%less than the travel time by car).Because the travelers state their preference af2 ter perceiving the cost im plications of the alternative m odes the cost of travel was not included as the variable in m ode choice m odel.The list of variables considered for m odeling and their descriptions are given in T able1.
T able1 Description of the variables considered for modeling Variable name Description and coding details
G ender M ale/female.The variable will be assigned value0if male,and1if female.
Age1People in the age group,10-20years.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the respondent falls in the age group and0,otherwise.
Age2People in the age group,21-40years.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the respondent falls in the age group and0,otherwise.
Age3People in the age group,41-60years.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the respondent falls in the age group and0,otherwise.
Age4People in the age group greater than60years.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the respon2 dent falls in the age group and0,otherwise.
W alking T ime1W alking time to bus stop is≤5m inutes.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the walking time of the respondent falls in this range and0,otherwise.
W alking T ime2W alking time to bus stop is6-10m inutes.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the walking time of the respondent falls in this range and0,otherwise.
W alking T ime3W alking time to bus stop is greater than10m inutes.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the walking time of the respondent falls in this range and0,otherwise.
T rip2W T rip made for w ork.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the trip under consideration is made for w ork and0,otherwise.
T rip2E T rip made for education.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the trip under consideration is made for education and0,otherwise.
T rip2O T rip made for other purposes.The variable will be assigned the value1,if the trip under consideration is made for other purpose and0,otherwise.
S tated preference(dependent variable)W ill be assigned the value1,if the trip maker prefers to shift to bus and0,otherwise.
7 Model development
7.1 Model calibration
M odel calibration or estimation inv olves finding the values of the parameters,which make the observed data m ore likely under the m odel specification;in this case, one or m ore parameters can be judged non2significant and left out of the m odel.The estimation als o considers the possibility of examining em pirically certain specifica2 tion issues,for exam ple,structural and/or functional form of parameters may be estimated.In this study,the stated preference(willingness or otherwise to shift)of the respondent is the dependent variable and gender, age,walking time to bus stop,trip purpose,and in2ve2 hicle travel time difference are the independent variables considered for m odel estimation.As the dependent vari2 able is discrete in nature,the m odel was calibrated by maximum2likelihood estimation using Newton Raphs on method[15].F or a fixed set of data and underlying proba2 bility m odel,the maximum2likelihood picks the values of
521
第6期Estimating M odal Shift of Car T ravelers to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority System
m odel parameters that make the data“m ore likely”than any other values of the parameters w ould make them.
The home2interview survey was conducted with100 car users.The data set pertaining to the100car users, with their responses for shifting to bus(for five travel2 time2difference scenarios),was processed into500(5×100)data points for m odeling.F or the purpose of m odel calibration,a set of400data points(80%of the total) was used,while setting aside the rest of the observations (20%)for the purpose of validation.F or the m odel2cal2 ibration analysis,a s oftware tool,named,statistical s oftware tools(SST)was used.
The g oodness2of2fit for the calibrated m odel can be assessed by likelihood ratio index(ρ2),which is given as,
ρ2=LL(P)-LL(0)
LL(0)
(4) where LL(P)=Log2likelihood of the estimated m odel; LL(0)=Log2likelihood when the coefficients are as2 sumed to be0.
The m odelcalibration results are shown in T able2. It can be found that the signs of the parameters of the variables are logical.The value of the t2statistic for the different variables when com pared with the corresponding table value indicate that all the parameter estimates are significant at1%level.
T able2 R esults of model calibration
Variable
Parameter
estimate
t2statistic
C onstant-2.28-6.75
Age30.86 3.28
T rip2W0.63 2.35 W alking time-3-1.07-2.48 Percentage time difference 6.34 6.15 Likelihood ratio index(ρ2)=0.25
T able value of t,1%level of significance=2.33.
7.2 Model validation
F or the purpose of m odel validation,the holdout data set,with100data points,was used as follows: first,a separate m odel of m odal shift using the data of the hold out sam ple was calibrated and the Log2Likeli2 hood(LL)was estimated.Next,the m odel initially cali2 brated using the400data points was applied to the hold out sam ple with(100data points)to predict the m odal shift and the value of Log2Likelihood was calculated. Then the tw o values of Log2Likelihood were com pared for their closeness.The relevant details are given in T able 3.It can be found that the tw o Log2Likelihood values are close to each other,thus proving the validity of the m odel.The acceptableρ2value ranges from0.2to 0.4[7]andρ2values of around0.4may give excellent fits[16].Hence,the validation result may be considered to be satis factory.
T able3 R esults of model valid ation
Description
Value of m odel statistics
M odel initially calibrated with400data points
M odel calibrated using hold out
sam ple with100data points
Initial LL Final LL
ρ2-221.81
-165.59
0.25
-55.45
-41.32
0.25
Estimated LL for the m odel calibrated using hold out sam ple-41.32 Calculated LL by applying the m odel initially
calibrated based on400data points in the hold out sam ple
-44.06
8 Sub models based on trip purpose
T w o different sub m odels for trips made for w ork, and all other purposes,were calibrated and validated by following the same procedure explained in the previous section,to study the shift behaviour of car users.The number of trips made for education,using car,were found to be too small to develop a m odel.The m odel2calibration and validation results are given in T able4.It can be found that the variables used in the m odels are statistically significant and the tw o m odels are als o valid. The probability of shift(for various travel time differenc2 es),from car to bus,estimated using the m odels are pr2 esented in T able5.It can be found that,as expected, the higher the time difference(bus travel time less than car travel time),the higher the probability of shift in all
621交通运输系统工程与信息2009年12月
the cases.It can als o be seen that for a given time
difference,the probability of shift is maximum in the
case of trips made for w ork purpose T able4 C alibration and valid ation results of the models b ased on trip purpose
In fluencing variable
Values of parameter and t2statistic
M odel based on trips
made for w ork
M odel based on trips made
for other purposes Parameter
estimate
t2statistic
Parameter
estimate
t2statistic
C onstant-0.93-2.58-1.95-3.72
Age3 1.08 2.76 1.67 3.78 W alking time3-1.04-2.42-1.10-2.32
T ime difference3 6.01 4.83 5.91 3.62 Likelihood ratio index(ρ2)0.270.25
M odel validation
ρ2for m odel calibrated
using hold out sam ple
0.280.24
Estimated LL for the m odel calibrated
using hold out sam ple
-23.34-20.54
Calculated LL by applying the m odel
initially calibrated on the hold
out sam ple
-24.42-20.81
3Percentage by which bus journey time is less than car journey time.
T able5 Prob ability of shift of car users
Percentage difference between bus journey time and car
journey time
Probability of
shift(considering the
trips made for all
the purposes)
Probability of shift
(based on trip2purpose)
w ork others
00.130.290.20 100.220.420.31 200.350.570.45 300.510.710.59 400.660.810.72
9 Sub models considering only travel2time di fference as the influencing variable
F or policy decisions on urban2transport2system management,it w ould be appropriate to consider the im2 pact of changes in the operating characteristics of travel m ode(s).Accordingly,in this case,it w ould be appro2 priate to estimate the probability of shift to bus,consid2 ering only travel2time as the influencing variable.Ac2 cordingly,the m odels were calibrated and validated by considering travel time difference as the only basis for m odal shift and following the same procedure explained in the previous section.Then,the calibrated m odels were used to predict the aggregate shift of car users to bus,the only criterion considered being reduction in travel time,and the results are given in T able6.The probability of shift for different traveltime differences be2 tween car and bus,obtained using the calibrated m ode2 ls,are presented in T able7.
10 Modal shi ft probability curve
T o illustrate the usefulness of the m odal shift m ode2 ling exercise in urban road transport management,the developed aggregate m odal shift m odel,(inv olving all the trips made for the different purposes),considering travel2time difference as the influencing variable,was used to develop a m odal shift probability curve(Fig.
4).As per the Indian R oads C ongress(IRC)guidelines (IRC,106-1990),the recommended level of service for urban roads is‘C’and the v olume of traffic corre2
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第6期Estimating M odal Shift of Car T ravelers to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority System
sponding to this level of service can be taken as0.7 times the capacity.Hence,the percentage travel2time difference between bus(on exclusive lane)and car at v olume corresponding to V/C ratio value of0.7was de2 termined using the simulation m odel.The percentage travel2time differences were16and48respectively for the roads with14.5and11.0m widths for m ovement of traffic in one direction.The probability of shifts then can be obtained from the curve,as0.28and0.70for14.5 m and11.0m wide road spaces,respectively.
T able6 C alibration and valid ation results of the models with travel2time difference as the only causal variable
In fluencing variable
M odel based on trips
made for all
purposes
Values of parameter and t2statistic
M odel based on trips
made for w ork
M odel based on trips
made for other
purposes Parameter
estimate
t2statistic
Parameter
estimate
t2statistic
Parameter
estimate
t2statistic
C onstant-1.90-7.59-0.88-2.95-2.06-4.81
T ime difference3 5.72 6.00 5.62 4.39 5.99 3.94 Likelihood ratio
index(ρ2)
0.220.240.25
M odel validation
ρ2for data set pertaining to
holdout sam ple
0.230.240.26
Estimated LL for the m odel calibrated
using hold out sam ple
-42.539-
24.83-20.05
Calculated LL by applying m odel,
initially calibrated on the
hold out sam ple
-44.60-23.48-23.44
3Percentage by which bus journey time is less than car journey time.
T able7 Prob ability of shift of car users to bus estim ated by taking travel2time difference as the only causal variable
Percentage difference between bus journey time and car
journey time
Probability of shift
(considering the trips made
for all the purposes)
Probability of shift
(based on trip purpose)
W ork Others
00.130.280.11 100.200.410.18 200.310.550.29 300.450.680.42 400.590.790.57
Fig.4 Probability of shift of car users to bus
11 Conclusions
The following are the im portant findings of the study:
(1)Through this study a set of causal factors,with reliable and predictable data base,that explain the vari2 ation in shift behaviour of car users to buses has been identified.The identified factors are:gender,age, walking time to bus stop,trip purpose,and travel time difference.
(2)The calibrated general Logit m odel of m odal shift(inv olving all trips and all variables)is found to be statistically significant with a satis factory rho2square val2 ue.The m odel when validated using hold2out sam ple was found to be valid based on the com paris on of the predicted LL value against the originally estimated LL value.
(3)The different m odels developed to facilitate un2
821交通运输系统工程与信息2009年12月
derstanding of the shiftbehaviour changes with respect to trip purpose,indicate that the probability of shift is maximum in the case of trips made for w ork purpose.
(4)The m odalshift m odel developed considering the travel2time difference alone as the causal variable is als o found to be statistically valid indicating the relative2 ly high significance of the variable in explaining the m odal shift.
(5)The m odal2shift2probability curve,drawn based on the m odal shift m odel(inv olving all the trips made for different purposes),considering travel2time difference as the in fluencing variable,can serve as a us2 er2friendly sim ple tool to estimate m odal shift probabil2 ities.F or exam ple,it can be in ferred from the curve, that on city roads,at traffic flow corresponding to level of service C,(V/C=0.7),the probability of shift of car users to bus,after the im plementation of exclusive bus2lane scheme,is0.70for11m wide road and0.28 for14.5m wide road.
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第6期Estimating M odal Shift of Car T ravelers to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority System
摘要：公交信号优先是提高公交系统运行速度和可靠性的重要手段。回顾公交信号优先控制40多年的研究成果，以总结该领域的总体研究脉络。对被动优先、主动优先、实时优先以及与不同设施相结合的信号优先控制策略进行了综述分析。研究表明，公交信号优先控制策略的发展历程是：控制的实时性逐步提高，优化要素的考虑逐渐全面，控制对象日益扩大，控制策略逐步系统化、适用性逐步增强。最后指出，公交信号优先控制多目标平衡、控制策略的协调与网络优先控制，以及控制与调度策略的协调优化是后续研究的重点，而公交车辆行程时间预测以及如何应对预测偏差带来的影响仍然是信号优先控制中的关键问题。 Abstract ：Prioritizing signal timing for public transit vehicles effectively improves the reliability and travel speed of bus services.Through review-ing the research in the past 40years,this paper summarizes the general study trend on the prioritizing signals for bus services.Particularly,the pa-per analyzes the four types of prioritizing signal strategies:passive,active and adaptive,and combination with other facilities.The analysis results show that the development of prioritizing signal for bus service has ad-vanced into a practical control system that is real-time,comprehensive with control multiple objects.The paper concludes that the future re-search on signal priority for buses should focus on multi-objective,coordi-nation,and network priority as well as the coordination between signal control and bus dispatching.The key issue is still bus travel time predic-tion and how to cope with the adverse effect of forecasting error. 关键词：公共交通；公交信号优先控制；信号协调控制；发车频率；车头 时距波动 Keywords ：public transportation;prioritizing signals for bus services;sig-nal coordination;frequency of bus service;headway deviation 中图分类号：U491.5+ 4 文献标识码：A 最早的公交信号优先控制是1967年文献[1]在洛杉矶所做的公交信号优先控制实验。在现实巨大需求和美好预期的驱动下，公交信号优先控制理论逐渐吸引了交通控制领域、公共交通领域乃至交通设计和交通安全领域众多研究者的注意。早期公交信号优先控制研究倾向于将公交信号优先(bus signal priority)与强制信号优先(priority and preemption)归结为同一类问题。随着研究的深入，二者的区别逐渐被指出[2－3]。NTCIP(National Transportation Communications for ITS Protocol)1202第二版给出了公交信号优先的定义：“在信号控制交叉口给予公交车辆相对于其他车辆的优先权，这种优先不应导致相应的信号机脱离正常运行状态”。而强制信号优先的定义为“交通信号从正常状态切换到特殊状态，以满足紧急救援车辆、轨道交通等的通行，即需要中止正常的信号运行来提供特殊信号服务”[2]。这两个定义从本质上体现了优先级思想：一般公交车辆的优先级大于普通社会车辆，紧急车辆(紧急救 收稿日期：2009－10－20 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目“专用道优先控制与公交调度协调优化方法研究”(50808142) 作者简介：马万经(1980—)，男，内蒙古赤峰人，博士，讲师，主要研究方向：交通系统控制。E-mail:mawanjing@https://www.doczj.com/doc/572564130.html, 马万经，杨晓光 （同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海201804） MA Wan-jing,YANG Xiao-guang (Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China) A Review of Prioritizing Signal Strategies for Bus Services 公交信号优先控制策略研究综述
优先发展城市公交的重要性及措施 摘要：目前，缓解城市道路交通拥堵已到了刻不容缓的地步。机动车化是不可避免的，是未来交通发展的必然趋势，所以我们需要变思维方式，不能一味想着怎样让车子动起来，而是应当考虑如何让人动起来。换言之，就是要让有限的道路能够为更多的出行服务。最好的解决方式就是，大力发展公共交通，实行“公交优先”战略。 关键词：城市公交优先发展重要性措施 1.城市公交的含义 城市公共交通有广义和狭义之分，从广义上讲，是指包括公共汽车（电车）、出租车、地铁、轨道、轮渡等交通方式在内的经济方便的各种交通方式的总称，通常称为“公共交通”；从狭义上讲，是指在城市及所辖区范围内供公众出行采用的、经济方便的公共汽车（电车）客运交通方式，通常称为“公交”。在此，本文讨论的主要是狭义的公交。 改革开放以来，我国城市公共交通有了较快发展，但随着经济的发展和城市的扩大，一些城市交通拥堵、出行不便等问题日益突出，严重影响了人民群众的正常生活和城市的发展。优先发展城市公共交通，不仅是缓解城市交通拥堵的有效措施，也是改善城市人居环境，促进城市可持续发展的必然要求。 2.优先发展城市公交的重大意义 随着我国社会经济的不断发展，城市交通问题日趋严重，交通堵塞已成为城市居民最热门的话题之一，如何为社会提供方便、快捷、经济、安全的出行环境，改善交通堵塞和道路拥挤，成为许多人面临的共同问题；同时，由大量增加的机动车辆带来的环境污染，资源浪费等一系列问题也亟待解决。解决这些问题，大力发展公共交通，实行“公交优先”战略，对于经济发展，提高资源利用率，惠及百姓有着十分重大的意义。 2.1公交优先：城市经济发展的客观要求 世界银行曾有项研究表明：交通需求增长超前于经济增长速度，一般都在两倍以上。可见，交通是经济发展的重要基础。城市公交作为城市生产的第一道工
嘉兴市人民政府办公室关于印发嘉兴市区创建全省公交优先 示范城市的意见 【法规类别】城市交通运输 【发文字号】嘉政办发[2014]104号 【发布部门】嘉兴市政府 【发布日期】2014.12.09 【实施日期】2014.12.09 【时效性】现行有效 【效力级别】地方规范性文件 嘉兴市人民政府办公室关于印发嘉兴市区创建全省公交优先示范城市的意见 （嘉政办发〔2014〕104号） 各县（市、区）人民政府，市政府各部门、直属各单位： 《嘉兴市区创建全省公交优先示范城市的意见》已经七届市政府第35次常务会议通过，现印发给你们，请认真贯彻执行。 嘉兴市人民政府办公室 2014年12月9日 嘉兴市区创建全省公交优先示范城市的意见
为加快推进我市城市公共交通优先发展，争创全省公交优先示范城市，落实“公共交通引领城市发展”的战略导向，根据《关于开展公交优先示范城市创建工作的通知》（浙治堵办〔2014〕9号）精神，结合我市实际，制定嘉兴市区创建全省公交优先示范城市的意见。 一、指导思想 坚持以科学发展观和党的十八大精神为指导，以满足人民群众日常出行需求为出发点，将公共交通发展放在城市交通发展的首要位置，深入实施“公交优先”战略，为市民提供方便周到、快速准时、经济舒适、绿色环保、安全可靠的优质公共交通服务，提高公共交通出行分担率，打造低碳交通，为建设美丽嘉兴、创造美好生活提供有力的交通保障。 二、总体目标 至2017年底，真正确立公交优先发展的地位，依托公交专用道网络，构建起以公交快线、公交干线为骨架，以公交支线、公共自行车为补充，具有良好竞争力的民生型公共交通客运体系，全面实现公共交通“分担合理、运能充足、网络发达、通行顺畅、设施完善、运营安全、服务优质、管理规范”的发展目标，基本形成“公共交通引领城市发展”的总体格局。 至2017年底，市区中心城区公共交通出行分担率（不含步行）达22%以上。城市公交车保有量总数达到950标台以上，城乡公交车保有量总数达到350标台以上。中心城区公交专用道总里程达到62.3Km，高峰期间公共汽电车平均运营时速达到20Km/h，公交准点率达到95%。建成区在道路设施可达区域内的公共交通站点500米覆盖率达到100%。清洁能源公共交通车辆比率达到40%。 三、主要任务
第20卷第12期 系 统 仿 真 学 报? V ol. 20 No. 12 2008年6月 Journal of System Simulation Jun., 2008 单点公交优先感应控制策略效益分析与仿真验证 马万经, 杨晓光 （同济大学 道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室, 上海 200092） 摘 要：单点交叉口信号优先可以降低公交车辆延误且易于实现。研究了公交相位绿灯延长、红灯早断和插入相位三种单点公交优先感应控制策略；应用延误三角形方法建立了以公交车辆车均延误变化量和非优先相位车均延误变化量为指标的三种单点公交优先策略效益计算模型。以两相位信号控制为对象，计算对比分析了三种公交优先策略的正负效益及其影响因素，并通过仿真进行了验证分析。研究表明：公交相位绿灯延长、公交相位红灯早断和插入公交相位三种策略都能够降低公交车均延误，与此同时也都会带来非优先相位车流延误的增加，但影响的程度不同。公交相位绿灯延长策略的效益略小于公交相位红灯早断策略，而相位插入策略的效益与插入时刻等多因素相关。 关键词：公交信号优先；信号控制交叉口；优先控制策略；效益分析 中图分类号：U 491 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1004-731X (2008) 12-3309-05 Efficiency Analysis of Transit Signal Priority Strategies on Isolated Intersection MA Wan-jing, YANG Xiao-guang (Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China) Abstract: Giving buses priority at isolated intersections is an efficient and realizable approach to decrease bus delay. Three bus priority strategies were proposed: green extension, red truncation and phase insertion. The delay triangle was used to build bus delay models and no-priority phases delay models under different priority strategies . Two indexes: bus delay and no-priority phases delay were adopted to evaluate the efficiency of each bus priority strategies. And a series simulation was done to validate the resolutions. The results of the models and simulations show that delay of buses can be decreased by the three priority strategies while increasing delay of no-priority phase movements. The efficiency of red truncation is much higher than that of green extension. And the efficiency of phase insertion is relevant with the proper inserting time, saturation of bus lane and other factors. Key words: transit signal priority; signalized intersection; bus priority control strategies; efficiency analysis 引 言 公交信号优先在改善公交服务，提高公交系统吸引力方面有非常大的潜力。从Wilbur （1967）等人对两个信号控制交叉口通过手1动信号提供公交优先的研究开始[1]，公交优先的研究已经取得了一系列长足的进步[2]。单点信号优先控制策略因其逻辑简单且易于实现而得到了广泛的研究和应用。 Kevin （2000）[3]，Yann Wadjas （2003）[4] ，Alexander skabardonis, (2000)[5]，Peter.G . Furth （2001，2003）[6]，Meenakshy Vasudevan and Gang-Len Chang(2001，2005)[7]等人先后提出了以降低延误为目标的优先控制策略，并从优先控制模型、检测器布置、优先控制系统结构和优先控制约束等方面进行研究。 几乎所有的单点优先策略，都是建立在单一公交车辆优先申请的。即优先策略的选择和实施时都是针对某一车辆，目标为降低单车延误，缺乏对之前到达或者之后可能到达车辆的考虑，也即缺乏优先策略对整个周期车均延误的影响分 收稿日期：2007-03-13 修回日期：2007-11-01 基金项目：国家自然科学基金重点项目(70631002) 作者简介：马万经(1980-), 男, 内蒙古赤峰, 讲师, 研究方向为城市交通控制与交通仿真。 析。在公交车流量较小，一个周期红灯到达车辆数较小（如1辆）的情况下，这些策略并无明显的缺陷。然而，当公交流量较大，红灯期间到达车辆较多时，特别是在为了降低公交优先对非优先相位的不利影响，一个周期只能执行一种优先策略的情形下，这种缺陷就会逐渐暴露出来[8]，必须对优先策略的可能效益进行全面地分析。 本文首先分析了三种通用的单点公交优先感应控制策略：公交相位绿灯延长、公交相位红灯早断和插入公交相位的适用范围；进而应用延误三角形法建立了公交优先策略下的公交车均延误和非优先相位社会车流车均延误的计算模型，并以其为指标，对比分析了不同情形下三种优先策略的效率。同时，应用VISSIM 的仿真对分析结果进行了验证。研究表明，在对非优先相位效益降低量几乎接近的情况下，红灯早断的优先策略明显优于绿灯延长策略，而相位插入策略的效益则随相位插入时间等因素的变化而变化。 1 三种单点公交感应优先策略 设ba t 代表车辆到达交叉口的时刻；ex g 代表绿灯延长时间；tr g 代表红灯早断时间；in g 代表插入相位的长度；be g ：公交相位有效绿灯时间；C ：信号周期长度（s ）。
3.大纲 一．总则 ?概念（广义、狭义）、优先发展公共交通的意义、原则、国家政策文件 ?系统（交通工具）、层级关系、城市规模与系统选择 ?各层次规划中关于公交规划的内容要求 ?相关概念与指标（公交都市、枢纽城市、公交发展的相关评价指标体系） 1.1公共交通概念： 1.1.1 公共交通，英文：Public Transportation ，一般而言有广义和狭义两种解释。广义而言，公共交通包括民航、铁路、公路、水运等交通方式；狭义的公共交通是指城市范围内定线运营的公共汽车及轨道交通、渡轮、索道等交通方式。但无论哪种解释，公共交通都是人们日常出行的主要方式。 城市公共交通是城市中供公众使用的经济方便的各种客运交通方式的总称，包括定时定线行驶的公共汽车、无轨电车、有轨电车、中运量和大运量的快速轨道交通，以及小公共汽车、出租汽车、客轮渡、轨道缆车、索道缆车等交通工具及其配套设施。城市公共交通是城市客运交通的支柱，它应为城市居民和流动人口的工作、学习、生活提供安全、迅速、准点、方便、舒适的服务，最大限度地节约人们的出行时间，促进城市经济的发展，提高人民的生活质量。 1.1.2 城市公共交通特征： ●城市公共交通为公众提供大众化的、共享的出行方式，这是城市公共交通存在和发展的 首要目的。城市公共交通必须具有足够吸引力的客运服务能力及服务水平，促使尽可能多的居民选择这种共享的大众化的出行方式，并为其提供良好的服务，以便有效地利用现有的城市交通资源。 ●城市公共交通是受多种因素影响的动态复杂系统。城市的人口数量和人口密度、工作岗 位的数量和分布、城市用地性质和形态以及社会经济状况和发展速度都对城市公共交通产生直接或间接地影响。 ●城市公共交通具有社会化、半福利性的经济属性。优先发展公共交通的目的，是利用社 会化、半福利性的公共客运交通方式来调控、替代非社会化的个体客运方式和企事业单位自备通勤车辆的盲目发展和自发性膨胀，从而在车辆购置、交通资源利用、节约能源和减少环境污染方面获得可观的经济效益和明显的社会效益。 ●城市公共交通大多采用定点定线运营方式。公共交通方式除出租车外，大多定线、定点 运营，对于交通组织和交通管理更便利，有利于提高交通安全性。同时，利用先进技术跟新设备，提高公交的准点率，将更有利于乘客掌握出行时间。 1.1.3 目前我国的公共交通面临的一些问题： ●公共交通的主体地位尚未确立。全国大部分中心城市公交出行分担率平均不足30%， 中小城市平均约10%，与国外同类城市相比差距较大。 ●公共交通吸引力不强。准点率较低，换乘不方便，“等车时间长、行车速度慢、乘车环 境差”等问题仍较为突出。 ●基础设施建设滞后。公交站点、场站、枢纽等设施建设历史欠账多，不少地区用地指标 长期得不到落实，站点覆盖率不高，全国主要中心城市公交车辆进场率不足60%。 ●行业发展政策不完善。公交发展缺乏稳定的资金来源，补贴补偿“一事一议”现象较为普 遍。 1.2 优先发展公共交通的意义：
公交优先的含义及意义 目前，缓解城市道路交通拥堵已到了刻不容缓的地步。不少深感忧虑的人士纷纷进言，支使高招。有人说应多修道路，有人认为要控制机动车辆的发展。而对此，有专家则道出了一个崭新的交通发展理念：机动车化可能是不可避免的，但必须变换我们的思维视角。应该考虑如何让人流动，而不是一味想着怎样才能最好地让车子动起来。换言之，是要让有限的道路能为更多的出行服务。而出路又惟有一条，就是大力发展公共交通，实行“公交优先”战略。 在我们的采访中发现，对“公交优先”这一提法有相当一部分市民从未接触过，有的即使听说过但对其也只是一知半解。那么，究竟何谓公交优先？ 公交优先是指大城市的市内客运交通以大容量、快速度的大公交系统为主，以其他交通工具为辅。公交优先应包括政策支持、基础设施建设、改善技术装备、企业改革、交通管理等多方面的优先。也许有人会问，为什么实施“公交优先”是未来城市交通发展的必然选择呢？公交优先：城市经济发展的客观要求世界银行曾有项研究表明：交通需求增长超前于经济增长速度，一般都在两倍以上。可见，交通是经济发展的重要基础。城市公交作为城市生产的第一道工序，它直接保证着城市经济生活的有序运转。无疑，城市公交优先就成为了世界各地经济发展战略的重要组成部分。单从我县公交事业发展的轨迹，就能清晰地印证这一点。坪山北段有一个叫盛民的市场，主动配合公交公司把市场前的空地建成停车场，2路、3路、4路等公交车从这里发车，这不仅方便了公交，而且使汽配市场的生意也迅速红火起来。北环道通车后，坪山村委主动要求将公交6路车延伸到该村，坪山先后兴建起了蔬菜批发市场、花卉市场等一系列实业，一个原本偏僻的农村一下子红火兴旺了起来。由此更说明了，正行进在建成商贸城道路上的我市，各项建设发展始终离不开一个良好的交通环境和发达的公共交通体系。数据最能说明问题，城市公共交通是效率最高的交通方式，公交优先无疑是克服我市人多地少、车多路少、拥挤堵塞等基本矛盾激化和能源紧张、污染严重等问题的首选。 公交优先：老百姓安全快捷出行的保障“衣、食、住、行”，“行”乃人类赖以生存和发展必不可少的四大物质条件之一，尤其在“时间就是效益”的当今社会，行得好，行得快，就显得尤为重要。公共交通本是我市市民出行的主要代步工具，但是在现今道路拥挤的状况下，居民选择出行的方式发生了变化，形成以
公共交通优先发展的原因与措施 （2012级） 学生姓名 学号 专业班级 所在学院 提交日期2014年12月
公共交通优先发展的原因与措施 摘要:优先发展公共交通是城市交通可持续发展的必由之路。文中阐述了 城市可持续交通的先进理念和具体措施,进一步说明只有实施优先发展城市公共交通的战略,才能构建高效、和谐、节约型及可持续发展的城市交通系统。 关键词:公共交通,公交优先,措施 随着城市经济社会发展和城镇化进城的加快,一些城市交通拥堵、群众出行不便等问题日益突出。我国城市公共交通发展总体上滞后,难以满足人民日益增长的交通出行需求,严重影响了城市发展和人民群众生产生活水平的提高。解决城市交通问题,关键是要树立城市公共交通在城市交通体系中的主导地位,大力优先发展公共交通。优先公交发展是城市健康发展和城市交通可持续发展的必然要求,是建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的重要方面,也是构建社会主义和谐社会的重要举措。 1 优先发展城市公共交通的必要性 “公交优先”是上个世纪60年代初由法国巴黎最先提出的,其后很快在欧美发达国家得以推行。30多年的探索和实践已经雄辩地证明,这种高效利用通道资源的交通方式是社会经济发展的必然选择。“公交优先”即公共交通优先,是指在城市发展和规划中,把公共交通的建设、管理放在优先的位置上,给予政策、资金、技术等方面的扶持,使其能以畅通的道路、良好的车况、纵横密集的线网站点,为公众出行提供更多、更好、更快的服务。 1.1 公交优先是推动城市发展的客观要求 城市公交的正常营运,直接支撑着城市经济和社会活动的有序运转,直接影响着城市的生产和生活,也可以说城市的健康发展,离不开公共交通的优先发展。公共交通与城市发展方向、用地布局紧密相关,没有大运量的、快捷的公共交通出行方式,城市想要达到理想的空间布局几乎是不可能的。伴随着城镇人口的增加和交通需求的增长,建立区域公共交通体系,能更好地联系城市与周边地区的协调发展。可见,优先发展公共交通不仅是解决城市交通的需要,而且也是优化城市布局,推动中国特色城镇化发展的本质要求。 1.2 公交优先是解决能源问题的必然选择 公共交通的发展是决定城市形态和城市人口密度,节约使用土地、能源,实现城市可持续发展的关键措施。随着经济社会的快速发展,对能源的需求不断增加,能源已经成为涉及我国经济安全的战略资源。据统计,每百km的人均能耗,公共汽车是小汽车的8.4%,电车为3.4%至4%,地铁为5%。如果采用个体小汽车出行的人有1%转乘公共交通,仅此一项全国每年节省燃油将达到0.8亿L。由此可
BRT 信号优先系统控制与设计 高 歌1 ,高 克 2 (1.兰州交通大学,甘肃兰州730070; 2.青岛千禧国际村置业有限公司,山东青岛266106) 摘 要:BRT 信号优先是解决城市BRT 车辆在交叉口延误的有效方式。探讨从BRT 信号控制系统的控制策略、公交信号优先的控制方案及BRT 信号优先的控制方式入手实现BRT 信号优先。设计BRT 信号优先模块的构架及BRT 信号优先的逻辑架构,最终实现BRT 信号优先。关键词:BRT ;信号优先;相位 中图分类号:U 492.4+31 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1008 5696(2011)01 0047 04 Design on Trffic Signal Control for BRT s Priority GAO Ge 1 ,GAO Ke 2 (1.L anzhou Jiao tong U niv ersity ,L anzhou 730070,China; 2.Q ingdao M illennium Co.,L td;Q ingdao 266106,Shando ng ,China) Abstract:Intro duce the developing situation of BRT in China sim pally.The mechanism of BRT signal prior ity.It including strateg e control 、plan contr ol and pattern contro l.Desig n the construct of BRT signal prior ity mo dule.A t last,posed log ical construct of BRT sig nal priority.Key words:BRT;sig nal priority;phase 收稿日期:2010 09 05 作者简介:高 歌(1986-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:交通运输规 划. BRT 是解决城市拥堵的有效方式。自2005年以来,我国先后有北京、杭州、常州、厦门、济南、大连、重庆、深圳、合肥、武汉、郑州相继开通运营BRT 。 目前,我国的许多城市虽然采用了BRT ,但是很多城市没有BRT 信号优先控制系统,BRT 车辆在信号交叉口延误很大,从而导致BRT 系统快速、高效、准确的特点没有很好的体现。本文主要针对此种情况,提出BRT 信号优先,充分体现BRT 的优越性。 1 BRT 信号系统的控制策略 公交信号优先控制策略大体分为3类:被动优先、主动优先和实时优先。 1)被动优先:根据交叉口历史交通流数据,预先进行公交优先信号配时。 2)主动优先:通过监测公交车采取延长、提前、增加或减少相位的信号调整方法来适应公交车,主动优先又可分为无条件优先和有条件优先。 3)实时优先:实时是最新发展起来的公交优 先信号控制理念。它通过GPS 等装置估计系统现状,考虑网络上所有的社会车辆和公交车流量、公交车上乘客数和公交车运行状况(是否晚点),基于实时信息的公交交叉口信号优化策略。该策略在减少公交车延误和缩短公交乘客出行时间的同时,将对其余交通方式的影响降为最低。 2 BRT 信号优先的控制方案 BRT 信号优先的实现主要有以下几种方法:绿灯延长、绿灯提前、相位插入及跳跃相位等。 绿灯延长(Green Extension),即延长相位绿灯时间。当公交车辆到达交叉口时,若该相位的绿灯信号即将结束,这时采用延长该相位的绿灯时间,以使公交车辆有足够的时间通过交叉口,如图1所示。公交车辆通过交叉口后,控制系统将恢复原有的信号配时。 绿灯提前(Ear ly Gr een/Red T runcation),即缩短车辆等待绿灯信号的红灯时间,当公交车辆到达交叉口时,公交车辆通行方向所在的相位处于红灯状态,这时通过缩短交叉口当前相位的绿灯执行时间,使公交车辆到达交叉口时,可以以绿灯信号顺利通过交叉口。如图2所示在这种控制策略下,在周期长度不变的情况下,可以在后续执行相位相序
城市公共交通优先发展的关键技术 ——优先通行 【摘要】城市公共交通优先通行是公交优先发展的一个重要措施，路段公共交通的优先通行能够减少公交车在路段所受的干扰，提高其行驶车速，减少延误，从而有效地保证公交车的准时率，提高公交的服务水平，促进公共交通的发展，对缓解城市的交通压力和保证城市未来的可持续发展都具有很大意义。 【关键词】公共交通优先通行专用道路 随着城市化进程的加快和社会经济的持续发展，城市交通需求持续增长，城市交通基础设施供应却相对不足，城市道路建设速度远赶不上道路交通量的增长速度。一方面我国土地资源有限决定了我们要集约型的土地利用，另一方面小汽车能源消耗大，尾气排放对环境污染较大，不利于我国走节能环保的可持续发展之路。因此，实行公交优先已成为缓解交通供需矛盾的有效方法。在我国这样一个世界人口最多，城市人口密集，人均收入较低、资源相对短缺的国家，人们对公共交通的需求高于任何国家。优先发展城市公共交通，不仅是缓解城市交通拥堵的有效措施，也是改善城市人居环境，促进城市可持续发展的必然要求。 1 公交优先通行系统内容 1.1公交优先通行系统概念 公交优先通行系统概念是一个广义的公交优先通行概念，它不仅包含为公交车辆提供优先通行的基础设施，还包括相应的管理措施，以保障公交优先通行设施能够更好地发挥作用，实现真正的公交优先。 公交优先通行系统主要包括以下内容： (1)路段公交优先设施 路段上公交车辆与其他车辆混行，影响了公交车辆的正常行驶，开辟路段公交专用道，可以使公交车与其他车辆隔离，大大减少公交车所受的干扰，提高其行驶速度，减少路段上的延误时间，尤其在高峰时间更有必要设置公交专用道。 (2)公交停靠站的超车设施 在公交车辆需求大的路段，提供一些交通设施允许公交车辆在停靠站相互超车，可以减少车辆在一条车道内的排队延误和交通拥挤，尤其在高峰时段，能够
城市公交信号优先控制系统
目录 1.软件简介4 2.系统配置4 3.操作指南5 3.1全局监视 (5) 3.1.1GIS操作 5 3.1.2路口信息查看 5 3.1.3优先请求信息查询 6 3.1.4路线公交检测点列表 7 3.1.5优先请求信息统计 8 3.1.6优先运行率查看 9 3.1.7优先请求统计表查看 9 3.1.8公交优先请求趋势查看
10 3.2单路口监视 (11) 3.2.1 公交优先相位状态监视 (11) 3.2.2公交优先实时请求信息监视 (12) 3.2.3单路口子区监视 (12) 3.2.4 单路口其他参数监视 (12) 3.3 统计分析 (12) 3.3.1 公交流量报表 (12) 3.3.2 公交流量分析 (15) 3.3.3 旅行时间报表 (17) 3.3.4 旅行时间分析 (19) 3.3.5 公交请求信息报表 (21) 3.3.6 公交优先时间报表 (23) 3.3.7 公交请求信息查询 (25) 3.3.8 公交信息查询 (26) 3.3.9 公交旅行时间查询 (27) 3.3.10 通讯故障报表 (28) 3.3.11 检测器故障报表 (29) 3.3.12 控制器故障报表 (30) 3.4 设备管理 (31) 3.4.1 路口设备查询 (31) 3.4.2 路口策略查询 (32) 3.4.3 系统配置查询 (33) 附录1 (33)
1.软件简介 公交优先是指城市客运交通以大容量、快速度的公交系统为主，其它交通工具为辅的“以人为本”的交通模式，它是快速分流人群，方便市民出行，缓解城市交通拥挤的最佳途径。 城市公交信号优先控制系统以实现“公交优先”为目的，依据RFID检测技术，在现有信号控制系统的基础上，针对基于路面公交系统的公交信号优先需求，实现了城市公交的“时间优先”，使公交车辆通过道路交叉口时享有更大的通行权，提高了公交车辆的运行效率。 系统由优先请求生成系统、通信系统和交通信号控制系统等子系统组成，重点研究了公交信号优先控制技术与检测技术的实际应用，中心监控平台由全局监视、设备管理、统计分析等功能模块实现，能客观、实时地反映各路口公交优先的状况，同时支持用户订制，并对相应数据进行统计分析。 2.系统配置 硬件配置：本系统对于计算机硬件无特殊要求。 软件配置：系统为B/S结构， 服务器操作系统为Solaris 10， 数据库为Oracle 10.1.0.3，Web服务器为 APACHE TOMCAT 5.5.20,GIS图片服务器采用 MapViewer。
国务院关于城市优先发展公共交通的指导意见 国发〔2012〕64号 各省、自治区、直辖市人民政府，国务院各部委、各直属机构： 近年来，我国城市公共交通得到快速发展，技术装备水平不断提高，基础设施建设运营成绩显著，人民群众出行更加方便，但随着我国城镇化加速发展，城市交通发展面临新的挑战。城市公共交通具有集约高效、节能环保等优点，优先发展公共交通是缓解交通拥堵、转变城市交通发展方式、提升人民群众生活品质、提高政府基本公共服务水平的必然要求，是构建资源节约型、环境友好型社会的战略选择。为实施城市公共交通优先发展战略，现提出以下指导意见： 一、树立优先发展理念 深入贯彻落实科学发展观，加快转变城市交通发展方式，突出城市公共交通的公益属性，将公共交通发展放在城市交通发展的首要位置，着力提升城市公共交通保障水平。在规划布局、设施建设、技术装备、运营服务等方面，明确公共交通发展目标，落实保障措施，创新体制机制，形成城市公共交通优先发展的新格局。 二、把握科学发展原则 一是方便群众。把改善城市公共交通条件、方便群众日常出行作为首要原则，推动网络化建设，增强供给能力，优化换乘条件，提高服务品质，确保群众出行安全可靠、
经济适用、便捷高效。 二是综合衔接。突出公共交通在城市总体规划中的地位和作用，按照科学合理、适度超前的原则编制城市公共交通规划，加强与其他交通方式的衔接，提高一体化水平，统筹基础设施建设与运营组织管理，引导城市空间布局的优化调整。 三是绿色发展。按照资源节约和环境保护的要求，以节能减排为重点，大力发展低碳、高效、大容量的城市公共交通系统，加快新技术、新能源、新装备的推广应用，倡导绿色出行。 四是因地制宜。根据城市功能定位、发展条件和交通需求等特点，科学确定公共交通发展目标和发展模式。明确城市公共交通的主导方式，选择合理的建设实施方案，建立适宜的运行管理机制，配套相应的政策保障措施。 三、明确总体发展目标 通过提高运输能力、提升服务水平、增强公共交通竞争力和吸引力，构建以公共交通为主的城市机动化出行系统，同时改善步行、自行车出行条件。要发展多种形式的大容量公共交通工具，建设综合交通枢纽，优化换乘中心功能和布局，提高站点覆盖率，提升公共交通出行分担比例，确立公共交通在城市交通中的主体地位。 科学研究确定城市公共交通模式，根据城市实际发展需要合理规划建设以公共汽（电）车为主体的地面公共交通系统，包括快速公共汽车、现代有轨电车等大容量地面公共交通系统，有条件的特大城市、大城市有序推进轨道交通系统建设。提高城市公共交通车辆的保有水平和公共汽（电）车平均运营时速，大城市要基本实现中心
文献综述 ——公交优先发展战略研究 苗莹 （公共事业管理0801班） 【文章摘要】 战国时，冯曾对孟尝君抱怨“出无车”。如今，随着交通工具的增多，人们追求的不再是“出有车”，而是更加快捷方便的出行质量。同时由于我国的经济社会持续快速发展，特别是城市化，机动化水平的不断提高，城市交通已成为关系人民群众切身利益的重大民生问题, 引起各级政府的高度重视和关注。新一轮政府机构改革后, 交通运输部门将承担起城市客运的管理职责, 在这种形势下, 如何加快推进城市公共交通优先发展, 缓解日益严重的城市交通问题, 是摆在各级政府和交通运输部门面前的一项重要任务。公交优先的理念最早由法国提出。伦敦、巴黎、纽约等城市公交化均在70％左右，东京更高达87％，而在我国这个比例却大多在20％。 【关键词】 公交优先；发展；交通 一、公交优先的含义 1、王训锋在《泸州市常规公交规划研究》中谈到，公交优先是指城市内客运交通以大容量、快速度的大公交系统为主，以其他交通工具为辅。公交优先应包括政策支持、基础设施建设、改善技术装备、企业改革、交通管理等多方面的优先。 2、陈懿在《公交优先战略研究》中提到，狭义的“公交优先”是指在交通工程范围内, 采用适当的交通管理和道路工程措施, 使城市内部的客运交通以大容量、快速度的公交系统包括公共汽车和轨道交通为主, 其他个体交通工具为辅。而广义的“公交优先”不但是指公交在“路权”使用上的优先, 更是指有利于公交优先发展的所有政策和措施, 包括公交在规划和财税、经济政策上的优先。公交优先既是一个经济问题, 又是一个社会问题, 既是一个技术问题, 又是一个管理问题。它是一项复杂的社会系统工程。
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交叉口公交优先技术研究现状及发展综述 作者：季彦婕， 邓卫 作者单位：东南大学交通学院,南京,210096 刊名： 交通运输系统工程与信息 英文刊名：JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 年，卷(期)：2004,4(1) 被引用次数：17次 参考文献(5条) 1.关伟;申金升;葛芳公交优先的信号控制策略研究[期刊论文]-系统工程学报 2001(3) 2.张样;曾静康深圳市公交专用车道设置方法研究 3.杨晓光;周光伟;杭明升公交优先技术方法 2002 4.陆建;王炜;陈学武公交专用车道设置条件与效益分析 1998(03) 5.邵俊公共汽车交通专用道(路)系统设计与评价方法研究 2000 本文读者也读过(8条) 1.潘俊卿.邓卫.PAN Jun-qing.Den Wei环型交叉口公交优先通行措施及其影响研究[期刊论文]-公路交通科技2005,22(6) 2.种灵子.焦忭忭.ZHONG Lingzi.JIAO Bianbian公交优先策略在交叉口信号控制的应用[期刊论文]-科技传播2010(19) 3.柳祖鹏.丁卫东.朱晓宏.LIU Zu-peng.DING Wei-dong.ZHU Xiao-hong交叉口公交优先信号控制系统研究[期刊论文]-武汉科技大学学报（自然科学版）2005,28(1) 4.李民生.卢忠亮.Li Minsheng.Lu Zhongliang公交优先信号控制技术综述[期刊论文]-科技广场2008(3) 5.初彦龙.CHU Yanlong关于城市道路交叉口公交优先方法的研究[期刊论文]-辽宁警专学报2009(5) 6.赵月.陈方红.ZHAO Yue.CHEN Fang-hong关于公交优先措施的研究[期刊论文]-交通与运输2005(z1) 7.包俊君加大公交优先政策落实力度,实现各地公交优先均衡发展[期刊论文]-人民公交2010(6) 8.赵雅秀.陆百川.ZHAO Ya-xiu.LU Bai-chuan交叉口公交优先技术现状与问题[期刊论文]-重庆交通大学学报（社会科学版）2010,10(1) 引证文献(17条) 1.肖枭.周扬.臧骁.王宇俊信号交叉口的公交优先控制方法研究[期刊论文]-重庆三峡学院学报 2013(3) 2.舒波.李大铭.赵新良基于强化学习算法的公交信号优先策略[期刊论文]-东北大学学报：自然科学版 2012(10) 3.李永钢典型交叉口公交通行改善方案研究[期刊论文]-交通标准化 2010(17) 4.种灵子.焦忭忭公交优先策略在交叉口信号控制的应用[期刊论文]-科技传播 2010(19) 5.李凤.王殿海.杨希锐单点公交被动优先下信号配时方法研究[期刊论文]-交通信息与安全 2009(3) 6.赵月.陈方红关于公交优先措施的研究[期刊论文]-交通与运输 2005(z1) 7.柳祖鹏.李克平.倪颖基于绿灯需求度的单点公交信号优先控制策略[期刊论文]-同济大学学报（自然科学版）2013(3) 8.张莉公共汽车分形优先控制的可行性分析[期刊论文]-城市公共交通 2006(4) 9.杨庆芳.董春娇.杨兆升基于自动车辆监控的公交优先技术研究[期刊论文]-交通运输系统工程与信息 2006(4) 10.张莉.马岩基于分形理论的城市公交优先控制策略研究[期刊论文]-城市公共交通 2005(6) 11.郭茜BRT时空优先系统的研究[期刊论文]-交通标准化 2011(1)
关于发展城市公共交通的八点建议 李刚 城市公共交通是一个城市的门户，是城市的重要基础设施，是一个城市不可或缺的社会公益性事业，也是解决城市“行路难、停车难”的关键之举。从较长一个时期看，道路建设的速度无法跟上机动车增长的速度，解决交通拥堵问题的根本出路在于大力实施公交优先战略，吸引更多的市民将公交作为首选的出行方式 2014年，我是的公共交通已有很大的改变，公交车、出租车都有较大的改变，城市通达性和居民出行便利度都得到了有效提升。但从目前公交运行和市民反映情况来看，还存在一些有待改进之处：一是还有部分车辆质量亟待提高，大力发展公共交通，重要目的之一就是要减少尾气污染，净化城市空气环境，但从目前情况来看，这一目的并未达到，目前投入运行的公交车质量普遍不高。二是公交线路“喜忧参半”，城市公交速度和准点率有待提升，有的一边是“川流不息、繁忙拥堵”，另一边却是“门庭冷落、人烟稀少”，道路资源配置还不够优化。三是公交驾驶员素质有待提高，有的明明有专用道却不走，有的为了赶时间，在专用道上横冲直撞、超速行使、乱闯红灯，增添了很多安全隐患。四是没有公交车停车港，司机又不按线停车，反而堵塞交通。 相关对策和建议： （1）发展绿色公交，积极鼓励使用环保节能型公交车辆，
在政策、资金上给予支持，推进实施城市公共交通车辆动力多元化，“油”（汽、柴、油），“电”，“气”（清洁气体燃料）并举，重点发展节油型城市客车，鼓励发展替代能源型城市客车。 （2）提高服务质量，城市公交是城市精神文明建设的一个重要窗口，也是加强城市精神文明建设的重要领域，要强化司乘人员职业技能和职业道德培训，提高其业务水平和服务意识，积极推行城市公共客运交通文明服务公约，随时倾听和收集乘客意见，改进和调整服务内容，提高服务质量。 （3）探索低价公交，针对目前公交使用率还不高的现状，政府可以加大这方面投入，在某些重点区域和线路可以探索低价公交，也可以借鉴北京等地做法，所有公交车的票价均就低统一价格，起价均为1元，刷卡的还可以享受4折优惠，鼓励更多居民乘做公交，减轻城市交通拥挤压力。 （4）加大公交科技投入，使公共交通出行查询系统、线路运行显示系统、营运调度系统、站点和停车场管理系统运行更加正常，并通过各种信息传播媒体，使出行者能够及时准确地了解城市公共交通出行的有关信息。 （5）修建公交停车港，将停车站的广告牌改造成停车港，虽然占了一点人行道，可以保证车辆通行。 （6）进一步发展和规范出租车，降低出租车的准入门槛，减少“分子钱”,同时要加强对出租车的规范管理，发现违规，实行“一次性死亡”。