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IIT E10Q3 5LIB material market

IIT E10Q3 5LIB material market
IIT E10Q3 5LIB material market

Chapter 5 LIB Materials Market Bulletin (10Q3)

As ever, the newspapers and other media are buzzing with news and editorials based on expectations for the LIB market for future automotive and ESS. IIT has been calmly analyzing the facts of the current state and future prospects of this market, and the fact that the second and third applications for LIB are far from beginning in earnest can be confirmed from the state of the materials market as well. LIB for non-portable devices still accounts for less than a 5% share of the materials market.

Materials businesses targeting future applications provide some scope for developing those new materials, but most of the materials for LIB for portable devices, and materials mixes for first-generation automotive batteries, are currently dedicated entirely to cost reduction. In materials supply, performance realization, stable supply and quality assurance are all givens, and price is the most important factor for competition. Of course, engineers have their preferences in cell design and development, and there are compatibility issues between materials, so it is not simple to switch materials over price alone. Nevertheless, it is certainly true that cell development primarily based on cost reduction is becoming increasingly common. The properties of basic materials have not changed greatly, so the only options are to change the source of the raw materials, change the process, or look for suppliers in other countries with lower costs1. In this chapter, we will recheck the cost breakdown of LIB bare cell costs, and take a general look at pricing trends in the metals for the cathodes, which have a large weight within the bare cell cost.

1. Cost breakdown and metals markets

We described the latest trends in cell prices in Chapter 4, but the data we present here on price movements go back a little further (Figure V-1).

Figure V-1 Movements in Prices of 18650 Cells of Each Capacity

1For graphite anodes, the only options for NG base are to change the natural graphite source, change the subsequent battery grade processes (washing, crushing, granularity adjustment), change the pitch coating method, or bring in material from Chinese manufacturers. The situations for other materials and components are largely similar. If the basic material properties change, which means, if there is a switch from graphite to Si-type materials, the price for capacity could fall even if the absolute price rises, but the use of Si-type materials in LIB for

Note) The data are the same as in Figure IV-8 in Chapter 4, with the addition of data for 1Q06-4Q08.

LIB suppliers, frustrated over major price rises in the Co market, linked metal price movements to their LIB bare cell and pack prices in 07Q2, and bare cell prices have been rising since then. The turning point was 08Q4. The slump in device and equipment markets which was triggered by the worldwide recession2extended its impact to LIB demand. After that, as we have reported before, the LIB market expanded again, but bare cell prices have been falling ever since.

It was Sanyo and the other Japanese manufacturers that propelled the introduction of the metals price linkage system for LIB prices in around 07Q1. At the time, the supply of 18650 cell was extraordinarily tight, emboldening the cell suppliers. The South Korean manufacturers followed their Japanese counterparts, taking the step of raising prices. That was the first time in the long history of the secondary cell market that price rises had been tolerated. With hindsight from today’s perspective, we have to conclude that being released from part of the cost pressure on them risked causing the Japanese manufacturers to slacken off on their own cost reduction efforts. They made the shift from LCO to NMC for cathodes, but for anodes they stopped at using NG base from Japanese manufacturers and did not go as far as using South Korean and Chinese-made materials throughout. As we have described before, cell assembly line speeds among Japanese manufacturers are 4.5-5M cells/month, while those of South Korean manufacturers reach 8-10M cells/month. At that time, SDI were still in third place behind Sanyo and Sony, and the South Koreans were very keen to cut costs in their push for the top. They enjoyed the boost of the cheap Won after that, but in any case, SDI have succeeded in overtaking Sanyo to reach the top. SDI are now in the position of being benchmarked by all the other companies in the industry. Figure V-2 shows the cost breakdown for an 18650 cell from SDI.

Figure V-2 Estimated Cost Breakdown for an 18650 Cell from SDI (10Q3)

2The precise beginning was on September 15, 2008 (about 2 years ago), when Lehman Brothers

Note) 28A= LCO version of a 2.8Ah cell, 26F =NMC/LCO version of a 2.6Ah cell, 22F =NMC version of a 2.2Ah cell. The costs for equipment depreciation, labor, sales

and general administration (SGA) are other costs (R&D, royalties, etc.) are

common to all cell types. Materials costs other than cathode active materials are

under “Other materials”.

It is amazing that the 22F cell, priced at under USD1.7, does not lose money. Even LGC are in the red at USD1.7, and Sanyo cannot make a profit at USD1.75. Now that the Japanese manufacturers are also hit by the strong Yen, they have no way to reach such prices. Naturally, all the companies use 100% NMC or NMC as the main ingredient for their 2.2Ah cells, and SDI have switched to material from BTR of China for anodes as well. With the weak Won, they are at a disadvantage buying materials from Japan, so they urgently need to source materials from the local South Korean market or from China. For the 26F, which is currently the mainstream model, they secure an operating income of 14%, even with tight pricing, and their profit margin on the 28A, which attracts a pricing premium, is over 20%. For the 26F, they have moved ahead of Sanyo and Panasonic to cut Co usage even at the 2.6Ah level, so they used a mixed NMC/LCO cathode to promote that move. The really impressive thing is that they have decided to switch to NMC/LCO even in the LCO version of their 28A. They are always working towards more cost reductions, and it is amazing that they have been able to develop and launch products with equal performance to the LCO versions in such a short time. As far as possible, SDI use common components and designs across all their products, from the 22F to the 28A/30A, so they are well able to adapt to fluctuations in demand, and it is easy for them to benefit from economies of scale.

Calculating from Figure V-2, the share of the Cost Of Goods Sold (COGS) taken by cathode active materials is 35% in the 28A, 32% in the 26F, and 26% in the 22F, which is very high. Of course, cathodes have the highest cost of all the materials. It is possible to use 100% NMC for the cathode active materials in cells of up to 2.4Ah, but an increasing share of LCO is unavoidable in cells of 2.6Ah or more. In the 2.6/2.8/3.0Ah cells that are the mainstream high-capacity products in the current 18650 cell market, competitive success depends on finding a way to switch the cathode active materials to NMC. In cost terms, LNO would also be an option, but the fact that Panasonic are the only source is a problem, as is the way it reduces voltage even as it raises capacity (Ah). Figure V-3 shows movements in prices of cathode active materials. Up to 2006, there was a price gap between LCO, NMC and LNO, but it was small, because of the synthesis costs of NMC and LNO. There was no incentive to rush into Co reduction. In 2007 and beyond, Co prices surged up, causing the LCO price to rise sharply. However, as mentioned above, the cell suppliers were able to pass on the cost increase, so even as the LCO price rose to nearly JPY8,000/kg (over USD70/kg), they could price a 2.2Ah cell at around USD2.4, as shown in Figure V-1. After the Lehman Shock, however, metal prices also fell (Figure V-4), and from 09Q2, in particular, all the prices of active materials were stable, but the LCO price still did not fall below JPY3,000/kg. It makes sense to shift to NMC and LNO, for which process costs have been falling, to achieve even a minor cost reduction.

Figure V-3 Movements in Prices of Cathode Active Materials

Figure V-4 Movements in Prices of Main LIB-related Metals

2. Markets for semi-main LIB materials and components

IIT’s LIB-related study programs usually deal with the four main constituent materials; cathode active materials, anode active materials, separators and formulated electrolyte solution; as in the next section. As a special feature for this report, we have gathered market data for other materials and components as well, and will present the data with some comments on trends. It is extremely difficult to collect figures for the global market, and there are many unknowns in the volumes used by Chinese LIB manufacturers and supplied by Chinese materials manufacturers. On the other hand, the volumes produced by manufacturers of LIB for non-portable devices are facts, and they point to a situation that cannot be described as fully under way.

1) Cathode current collectors

The global market for LIB cathode collectors in CY10 was 8,156 tons. Traditionally, Al foil 15-20 microns thick was used for LIB cells (with 30 microns for some cells for power tools), and the specifications emphasized strength and uniformity over purity.

There are four Japanese suppliers3of cathode collectors, with a combined share of 43%. Japanese LIB manufacturers use almost only Japanese-made materials. Nippon Foil Mfg. are marketing relatively aggressively in China, but other than that, only Sumikei Aluminum Foil and Toyo Aluminum ship small amounts to LIB manufacturers in the Europe and North America, and in Taiwan4. South Korean LIB manufacturers use almost only South Korean-made materials. The two big suppliers there are Sam-a Aluminium Co., Ltd. and Lotte Int’l, while DaiHan Eunpakgy Co., a general aluminum foil manufacturer in South Korea5, are moving into this field but have yet to make any major deliveries. Sam-a Aluminium have SDI as a customer and are the worldwide leader. In China, Alcoa Shanghai (which merged in 2009 with YunNan XinMeiLu Aluminum Foil Co.) ships to several companies, and there are three or four local suppliers.

Figure V-5 Shares for Each Supplier of LIB Cathode Collectors

(recorded and expected for CY10)

3In Japan, Al foil as cathode collector was produced by the foil departments or foil subsidiaries of all the big six light pressing companies (Sumitomo Light Metal Industries, Furukawa-Sky Aluminum Corp., Nippon Light Metal, Mitsubishi Aluminum, Kobe Steel and Showa Denko), but Sun-Aluminium Ind, Ltd, under the umbrella of Kobe Steel, have withdrawn from the market, and Showa Denko have also withdrawn, apart from high-purity foil for Al electrolytic condensers.

Their reason is that Al foil for LIB use does not demand as high a purity specification as for condensers, so it is difficult to derive added value.

4Some manufacturers may order Japanese products because they are concerned over the amount of residual oil in materials from local Al foil manufacturers.

5Other than for condensers, Al foil is mainly used as the everyday product for cooking and other household uses, and in the food and pharmaceuticals fields, for packaging foods and drugs. The total output of South Korean Al foil manufacturers is 169,000 tons, of which the top three, Lotte,

Figure V-6 Supply and Demand Relationships for LIB Cathode Collectors

(recorded and expected for CY10)

Note) Items that have "auto" after the manufacturer name are the automotive battery production of suppliers of cells for portable devices.

2) Anode current collectors

Compared to cathode collectors, the Cu foil used for anode collectors is often a topic of interest as a LIB material. The first reason is its price. The price setting mechanism is the same for both Al and Cu foil, namely metal price plus processing price, but at present the Cu foil is more expensive, costing JPY105-125/m2for 9 micron foil, while Al foil costs JPY35-45/m2 for 18 micron foil. The cost is closing in on that of separator, which is non-metallic but is also sold by area (JPY135-200/m2), and is remarkably high. The second reason is that it is a heavy component in LIB cell designs. Particularly in HEV cells, which have large electrode areas relative to their capacities, the Cu foil stands out as a heavy component. It would be very difficult to make it much thinner than the 8-10 microns that is the mainstream range. The third reason is the relationship with the expansion-contraction problems of Si-type anodes. In some cases, the Cu foil which serves as the substrate may be asked to provide more strength than usual, and the development factors could change6. Switching to 6Japan Metal News carried an unusual feature on LIB Cu foil on June 8th, 2010, which we quote

here verbatim.

copper foil / Alloying to maintain strength / Substitute materials to increase capacity? / Tin-copper alloy foil from Nippon Mining and Metals”

Domestic copper foil manufacturers have started to compete in development related to next-generation large-capacity LIB cells. Copper foil will be the collector on the anode side. It is said that in next-generation cells, the active materials coated onto the collectors will change from carbon-based materials to silicon alloys, and copper foil will be expected to provide more tensile strength and better bonding with the active materials than it has before. In a market where electrolytic copper foil has a high share, rolled-foil manufacturers are looking to complete with alloy foils.

* Foil strength to suppress swelling

Hitachi Cable say that “80% is electrolytic copper foil” within the anode collectors used in commercial LIB cells. Compared to rolled foil that is made from slabs, electrolytic foil, for which the copper is deposited on the surface of a metal drum, has the advantage in producing thinner and wider foil. Its properties also vary less on heating, due to the differences in crystalline structure.

Copper foil for collector use has been made increasingly thin, to meet demand for smaller cells with higher capacities. In order to roll more active materials into cells, collectors have been thinned from 15-18 microns to 8-10 microns in recent years, and the process of increasing capacity by thinning the foils is “nearing its limit” (Hitachi Cable). Therefore, a search has begun for alternative electrode materials.

Silicon alloy active materials, which is viewed as the leading option for the anode side, has a larger volume change on charging and discharging than the current carbon-type materials. With repeated cycles of charging and discharging, the cell expands by several times and the active material separates from the collector, shortening cell lifespan.

Current development is moving towards strengthening copper foil to suppress the swelling. It will be given the property of retaining tensile strength even if it is heated to 100-200°C in the electrode manufacturing process. Foil surfaces will be treated against peeling active materials. * Rolled copper foil is shifting towards alloys

Hitachi Cable, a manufacturer of rolled copper foil, is promoting an alloyed foil produced by adding 0.02% zirconium to oxygen-free copper. Even in an environment at 300-350°C, it has a tensile strength of 400-450N per mm2. Nippon Mining and Metals, the largest manufacturer of rolled copper foil, is offering a tin-copper alloy foil. It has a tensile strength of over 500N/mm2 at 300°C.

Pure copper foil is heat treated to 100-150°C, which reduces its tensile strength from around 400N to 150-200N/mm2. With that treatment the foil suffers plastic deformation (which does not return to the original shape) when the cell is first charged, and that is thought to lead to active materials dropping off. Rolled copper foil can handle that problem if it is alloyed.

Alloying has the drawback of reducing conductivity, but the choice of alloy composition is based on the tradeoff between strength and conductivity. The alloy itself is nothing special, and it is already widely in used in applications such as lead frames.

* Is electrolytic copper foil at a disadvantage?

“Mechanical properties which were not needed before are starting to be demanded of the collectors themselves” (Hitachi Cable), and there are a number of moves under way to extend the share for rolled copper foil. Electrolytic copper foil cannot be alloyed, so the strength of the pure foil must be increased by existing manufacturing methods. Such methods would use additives or change electrolysis conditions at the foil production stage.

That would appear to be a disadvantage at first sight, but the thermal variation of properties is smaller in electrolytic foil than in rolled foil, and products with tensile strength of 300-500N have already been developed. While the increase in cell capacity is not large, the potential of pure copper foil appears adequate and even high. Nippon Mining and Metals, who produce both rolled and electrolytic foils, take a cautious view, saying “the foil to use changes according to the structural design of the cell. The application methods for active materials also change”. They are developing electrolytic foils.

The same is true of surface treatments to enhance bonding performance with active materials. The most promising method appears to be “roughening treatment”, which sticks copper particles to the foil surface, but Hitachi Cable say “there are methods other than roughening.

alloy to meet that demand could also be an opportunity for rolled foil to make a comeback.

The current volume of the global market in CY10 was 18,276 tons, of which electrolytic foil has a 91% share. There are six Japanese materials manufacturers in this field. The largest electrolytic producers are Furukawa Electric and Nippon Denkai, while the largest rolled foil producers are Nippon Foil Mfg. and Hitachi Cable. Fukuda Metal Foil and Powder are now a minor player in this field, but a long-established brand. JX Nippon Mining & Metals have recently entered the market (they have both rolled and electrolytic products and are shipping to EnerDel, apparently the rolled product), to complete the lineup. The intricacies of choosing between rolled or electrolytic foil include the personal preferences of electrode and cell designers, so the automotive batteries now being newly developed are a mix, with some using each type. The dominance of electrolytic foil for portable devices is largely due to its provision of wider foils and its earlier reduction of thickness. In Japan, rolled foil is available in widths up to 600-650mm, while electrolytic foil can be provided up to one meter wide7. Local Chinese rolled foil manufacturers cannot supply foil wider than 300mm at best, so electrolytic foil, which they can produce at 450-600mm wide, is used for mass production.

Looking at the current figures, Furukawa Electric are still in top place worldwide, not the South Koreans. Iljin ship considerable volumes not just to SDI, LGC and SK, but also to Sanyo and Maxell, and to Tianjin Lishen, but they were impacted by having to share the volumes of SDI and LGC with LSMtron, the South Korean number two. In China, the largest and most famous supplier appears to be United Copper Foils (Huizhou) Ltd.. As a general Cu foil manufacturer, Kingboard Copper Foil Holdings Ltd. are also well known and have a large production scale, but United Copper Foils appear to be ahead in the LIB field.

Figure V-7 Shares for Each Supplier of LIB Anode Collectors

(recorded and expected for CY10)

Metal Foil and Powder are shipping samples of electrolytic copper foil with improved corrosion resistance and better bonding with active materials.

There are also some completely different approaches. Mitsui Metals, a major producer of electrolytic copper foil, are developing foil that is perforated with countless holes at the micron level. The active material coated onto both sides of the foil pass through the holes to link the two sides, so it can better keep up with rapid volume changes during charging and discharging.

7Incidentally, all the manufacturers of LIB for portable devices have meter-wide coating processes, but for automotive use, all the Japanese manufacturers and even LGC have 600mm-wide coating processes. With coating speeds having accelerated to 30-45m/minute, meter-width processes appear to have been moved to the next phase of investment. Chinese automotive LIB uses 300mm width for development and prototypes, and 600mm for mass

Figure V-8 Supply and Demand Relationships for LIB Anode Collectors

(recorded and expected for CY10)

3) Cylindrical cases

Most cylindrical cells have steel cases with Ni plating. The global market in CY10 is for 1,893M cases. The supplier-based supply volume forecast for LIB cylindrical cells for portable devices was 1,726M cells, and the equivalent application-based forecast was 1,737M cells, but once cells for Chinese E-bikes and cars are added and yield factored in, the figures are consistent. Production by Chinese local manufacturers amounts to about 10%, and the rest of the market is very well defined. Ishizaki Press Industrial supplies cases for 900 million cells a year, followed by Power Seimitsu, and internal production by Sanyo and Panasonic. In South Korea, the only suppliers are local manufacturers raised by SDI and LGC as second sources. They manage and guarantee dimensions and strength with press precision, and particle contamination, including contamination of plating, but it is very difficult to keep on maintaining constant quality within a cost structure that is pushed to the edge. The small number of suppliers in the market8is a sign of that difficulty. The concentration of sizes into 18650 cells is one reason why companies that are not very large, such as Ishizaki and Power Seimitsu, are able to go on supplying most of the volume. 8Another factor is that back in 2000-2001, when demand for cylindrical cells was slumping, and NEC Moli Energy and ATB, as they then were, withdrew from the market, their case suppliers

Chinese pressing manufacturers are interested in entering the market, anticipating future expansion of the market, but we have heard of almost no other new entrants. It will be very interesting to see how Ishizaki Press Industrial go about dispersing their production centers with a view to maintaining stable supplies.

Figure V-9 Supply and Demand Relationships for LIB Cylindrical Cases

(recorded and expected for CY10)

Figure V-10 Shares for Each Supplier of LIB Cylindrical Cases

(recorded and expected for CY10)

4) Prismatic cases

Most of the cases for prismatic cells used in portable devices are made of Al alloys, while those for use in vehicles are evenly divided between AL alloys and SUS. The latter is particularly used in large-capacity cells of 40Ah and above, using LFP cathodes and produced by LEJ and Chinese manufacturers, for its resistance to internal pressure increases, but next-generation development will shift to Al prismatic cases. In contrast to cylindrical cases, there is a very large number of suppliers of prismatic cases for portable devices. The market appears to have moved beyond its growth phase already, so it is bizarre that suppliers have not begun to thin out. Of course, the pressing manufacturers of existing prismatic cases are pinning their hopes on automotive batteries. However, the LIB manufacturers affiliated with

manufacturers as their second sources. One example is the way PEVE/Toyota have already started placing orders with Kyoho Machine Works after starting development with Fuji Exceed.

The global market in CY10 was 1,814M cases. The top supplier is Sangshin EDP of South Korea, main supplier for SDI, and the second is Ilwang CanTech, main supplier for LGC. Fuji Exceed, main vendor for Sanyo, had a strong position in the Japanese market, but Sanyo are increasing their internal production, and Toshiba Shomei Precision / Shenzhen Shenzhi Precision Parts (their Chinese production company) are catching up in volume terms. In China, the main suppliers are a group of manufacturers raised by Tianjin Lishen and BYD, of which Wuxi Kinyo are the largest.

Figure V-11 Supply and Demand Relationships for LIB Prismatic Cases

(recorded and expected for CY10)

Figure V-12 Shares for Each Supplier of LIB Prismatic Cases

(recorded and expected for CY10)

5) Packaging materials for pouch cells

The outlook for shipments of LIB pouch cells for portable devices is 655M cells, only around 40% of the 1,653M figure for prismatic cells. There are four major suppliers of pouch cells, Sony, ATL, SDI and LGC, but there are countless small and medium pouch cell manufacturers in China, making a components market of some size. Even so, there are effectively only two suppliers of laminate packaging materials. One is Showa Denko, producer of dry laminate materials. They have long been supporting Sony, the venerable brand of pouch cells, and ATL. The other is Dai Nippon Printing, producer of heat-sealed laminates. They support small and medium manufacturers in China and South Korea, and have been working hard on the practical development of automotive pouch cells for AESC/Nissan and for LGC. Recently, a stream of new companies have moved into this field, perhaps looking forward to the future market for automotive batteries9. They include Toppan Printing, Fujimori Kogyo, Okura Industrial, Mitsubishi Aluminum and Sumikei Aluminum Foil from Japan. However, we hear of almost no new entrants to this market in South Korea and China. The demand is not that large, compared to the time and effort it would take for development, production and quality control, and most of the Chinese companies started out with development of prismatic cells for automotive LIB, and have only just 9The properties of the product for automotive cells from Showa Denko, which was assessed in 2004-05, were extremely poor, leaving Dai Nippon Printing as the only option. Of course, Showa Denko are now preparing a new product to make a comeback. Dai Nippon Printing have developed superior laminated packaging materials, structures and production methods, and have been able to keep up with the demands of the leading companies, such as AESC/Nissan, LGC and EnerDel. There are often concerns over the durability of laminated materials, but they have extensive field test data that adequately verify the material properties. While the market remains an oligopoly, the increasing production volume is gradually bringing prices down. That point contrasts with Sumitomo Electric Industries, who monopolize tab films for pouch cells, and maintain high prices. Nevertheless, even if Dai Nippon Printing have superior technology, their technology and industry will not evolve adequately in the absence of competing manufacturers.

It will be particularly interesting to see what AESC/Nissan and LGC, who are desperately trying

started on pouch cells.

Figure V-13 Supply and Demand Relationships for LIB Pouch Cell Pouches

(recorded and expected for CY10)

Figure V-14 Shares for Each Supplier of LIB Pouch Cell Pouches

(recorded and expected for CY10)

3. Markets for main LIB materials

1) Cathode Active Materials

Demand for LIB cathode active materials stood at 45,530MT in CY10, with growth of 50% or more from the preceding year (Figure V-15). The share for LCO has been dropping gradually, but the robust increase in prismatic and pouch cells and the shift to 2.6Ah 18650 cells have maintained the LCO share at 47% overall. In future there will basically be a progression to NMC, and the move away from LCO among Chinese manufacturers, who still have it as their main material, will certainly reduce LCO usage further. All the Chinese manufacturers who aspire to produce automotive LIB have opted for LFP, but such batteries are still rare in the real market. As ever, the Japanese manufacturers are highly interested in olivine-type materials, but their assessment of the future potential of LFP itself is not favorable. They have greater

of the LVP with added vanadium (LiVPO4) that GS Yuasa recently announced.

Figure V-15 Demand for Each Type of LIB Cathode Active Material

Umicore and Nichia Chemical are still in their first and second places (Figure V-16). Umicore appear to be making steady progress with their plan to build a factory in Kobe, looking to a combination of supplies to Sanyo and a future recycling business. Nichia and Umicore have a friendly relationship, including trading raw materials, so even if they start supplying Sanyo, there will be no problems.

Toda Kogyo, in third place, have been well behind the top two in volume, and their business with Sony has almost entirely ended, so they are keen to change direction to automotive battery materials. They have expanded the equipment at their Onoda factory, and hope to expand shipments of LNO to AESC/Nissan and of LMO to LGC. The NMC from their Michigan factory is for EnerDel, and in China they are investing in Itochu and the Shanshan Group, with the aim of expanding globally. While the top two suppliers for portable devices are far ahead, they see that they cannot catch up with conventional tactics10, and aim instead to time their business development just right to catch the startup of the automotive battery field.

10Umicore and Nichia Chemical can produce over 10,000MT per year, but Toda Kogyo aim to establish a system at least as good, with 4,800MT of capacity in Japan, 4,000MT in the USA and 7,000MT from a Chinese joint venture. They have certainly made a lot of announcements of cathode-related expansions recently, as seen below, but the capacity of their production system is no more than 3,000MT. It is doubtful whether these efforts will win over the leaders on cost. Recent announcements include the following: (1) Investment in a wet-type production system for 2,500MT/year by CY12, with Sud-Chemie and Phostec Lithium of Canada, (2) Expansion of the production capacity of their Niigata branch to 2,000MT by 2011, with JGC Catalysts and Chemicals, (3) Expansion of the production capacity of their Mizushima branch by 1,600MT in October 2010, to a total of 2,200MT, with Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation, (4) Expansion of NMC production capacity at their Isohara factory to 2,500MT, with JX Nippon Mining & Metals, has been brought forward to CY12, (5) LMO capacity will be doubled within 2010, with SMM, probably from 600MT to 1,200MT, although the volume has not been announced, (6) Established a JV with Chisso and HC Stark to enter the cathode materials field

Figure V-16 Supplier Shares for LIB Cathode Active Materials (CY10)

Figure V-17 Supply and Demand Relationships for LIB Cathode Active

Materials (CY10)

2) Anode active materials

Demand for anode active materials in CY10 also increased by over 50% on the preceding year, to reach 26,650MT. The situation is unchanged, with graphite as the main material used in cells for portable devices, while natural graphite (NG core) is encroaching on artificial types, with a current cost advantage. MAGE, which is the main product from Hitachi Chemical, is selling well for high-capacity products. Showa Denko are aggressively developing their business with SCMG, which offers cycle properties and other advantages in addition to capacity. JFE Chemical have added artificial graphite to their lineup, alongside meso-type material. Natural graphite is the first choice for automotive use, particularly for BEVs, with the right balance of capacity and cost, but if cycle properties and stability are taken into consideration, with the reuse market in mind, artificial graphite is still in the competition. In any case, considering the market price of MAGX and the like, SCMG should also aim for JPY1,000 per kilo.

Figure V-18 Supplier Shares for LIB Anode Active Materials (CY10)

In cells for portable devices, Maxell have developed a blend of 10-20% SiOx/C from Shin-Etsu Chemical with graphite, and appear to have put it on the market11. The Si-type materials, in order of capacity, are metal Si>SiM (an alloy) > SiOx (an oxide from Shin-Etsu Chemical) > Si/C (amorphous-type material from Toray Dow Corning). They also have characteristics in their voltage profiles. Generally-speaking, the non-reversible capacity that is the problem is larger in materials with more O and C, while the swelling and contraction that occurs at the Li alloy stage is greater in materials with less O and C. SiOx is an intermediate material, and SDI’s use of it in their 18650 cells is believed to be the based on the same electrode design approach as Maxell. However, the alloys that Sony and Panasonic aim to develop, and the product from Toray Dow Corning, which is attracting increasingly good reviews for higher capacity and reduced expansion and contraction, are on the way, so the lineup of products and technologies is likely to expand in 2011-12. For BEVs, there are some battery and car manufacturers who are seriously considering using Si-type materials for their next-generation batteries in 2015-2020, and there are expectations for the maturation of that technology for cells for portable devices.

Hard Carbon (HC) from Kureha has a deep-rooted popularity as one option for first-generation automotive batteries. In July 2010, Kureha announced the first expansion in a long time at their Iwaki center, taking the equipment from 600MT to 1,600MT (scheduled for CY12), as well as a final treatment process in the US for supplies to EnerDel. EnerDel use it for BEV batteries, so if they use 24kg per vehicle, they would consume 720MT in 30,000 vehicles per year. Other than that, LGC use 100%

Kureha material in their V4 HEV cells, and a mix of around 20% Kureha material in their P1 cell for PHEV/BEVs. In Japan, BEC, HVE and AESC are all users of Kureha HC for HEV batteries, and Kureha’s investment in Carbotron P over a period of more than 10 years can be seen as supported by a sound prospect of demand.

Figure V-19 Supply and Demand Relationships for LIB Anode Active

Materials (CY10)

On the other hand, expansions by Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation (from 3,000MT to 5,000MT by December 2010 and 2,000MT more in the next phase), by Showa Denko for SCMG (from 1,000MT to 3,000MT by CY12), by Nippon Power Graphite (from 250MT to 2,000MT/year within a few years), and others, are investments planned with the expectation of expanded demand from PEVE/Toyota, LEJ, and others. Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation have established a JV in China to produce spheroidal graphite12, and they have gone as far as trying the Kawakami Process, strengthening their cost and quality management. The BEV anodes for AESC/Nissan, who are seen as the largest user in the automotive field, are from Hitachi Chemical. Nissan assemble cells in England, France and Portugal, but their electrodes will continue to be made in Japan by NEC for the time being, so it is unclear how the comprehensive collaboration with Hitachi Chemical and the German SGL Group will tie in.

3) Separators

Separator demand in CY10 grew rapidly by 45% YOY, as might be expected, to reach 369M m2. Among the leaders, Asahi and Polypore (= Celgard) are chasing Toray Tonen Specialty Separator. Sanyo are not dispersing their procurement, so Asahi have increased by that amount. Supplies to SDI and LGC, which are growing very rapidly, are dispersed between the top three and SK, but as SK are strengthening their LIB production for vehicular batteries, it is not clear whether they will keep on expanding their supplies of separator to rival companies. At present, SK separator is helping both companies to cut the costs of their LIB cells for portable devices13.

12There are a number of processing companies in Japan as well, such as Chuetsu Graphite Works, who use processes such as oxidation and sphericalization to supply NG core. Chuetsu Graphite appear to have shipped around 1,000MT/year to Hitachi Chemical, Hitachi Powdered Metals and Sumitomo Metal Industries (now a business of Chuo Denki Kogyo). Their policy on NG sources is apparently to escape dependence on China by opening up new sources in India and Madagascar.

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Figure V-20 Supplier Shares of LIB Separators (CY10)

With the industrialization and diffusion of BEVs and PHEVs in China, the country aims, as an national effort, for nationalization of the LIB industry that BEVs and PHEVs will require, and for domestic procurement of their materials and components. These Big Three companies have probably begun production, and their startup was triggered by the boom in spot demand in China. Polypore, who are steadily expanding capacity, will not immediately be able to keep up with that demand, and if users turn to the Ube product, Ube are prioritizing their automotive users, such as PEVE and Sanyo. In the Chinese market, the dry-type suppliers Polypore and Ube have been in an intense but good-natured struggle to capture market share, while the three local companies will try to fill in any gaps that open up where the dry-type materials cannot support everyone.

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