Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China
The world is changing with really remarkable speed. If you look at the chart at the top here, you’ll see that in 2025 these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And if you look at the chart for 2050, it’s projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. We should bear in mind here these projections were drawn up before the Western financial crises.
世界正在以惊人的速度飞快得改变着。如果你看着这上方的图表,你会看到在2025年，高盛投资公司的这些预测表明中国经济规模会和美国经济几乎相当。如果看2050年的图表，预测表明中国经济规模将会是美国经济的两倍，印度的经济规模将会和美国的经济几乎持平。在这里，我们应该记住这些预测是在西方经济危机之前做出的。
A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the latest projection by BNP (Banque Nationale de Paris) PARIBAS for when China will have a larger economy than the United States. Goldman Sachs projected 2027. The post-crisis projection is 2010. That’s just a decade way.
几周前，我查看法国巴黎银行的最近预测，中国在什么时候会超越美国经济，成为第一大经济体。高盛投资公司预测2027年。危机过后的预测是2020年。这也不过只有10年的光景。
China is going to change the world in two fundamental respects. First of all, it's a huge developing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10% a year. And within a decade it will have the largest economy in the world. Never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that of a developing country, rather than a developed country.
中国将在两个基本方面上改变世界。首先，中国是一个幅员广大的发展中国家它有13亿人口，在过去30年间它以每年10%左右的经济增长率发展。在未来10年间，它会有世界上最大的经济体。在世界现代史中，以前从来都是发达国家还没有一个发展中的国家变成了世界上最大的经济体。
Secondly, for the first time in the modern era, the dominant country in the world which I think is China will become, will be not from the West, and from very very different civilizational roots.
第二，在现代史中第一次在世界上，我认为中国会变成大国，它有别于西方国家而它是从非常，非常不同的文明根源发展起的大国。
Now I know it’s a widespread assumption in the West that as countries modernize, they also Westernize. This is an illusion. It’s an assumption that modernity is a product simply of competition markets and technology. It is not; it is also shaped equally by history and culture. China is not like the West, and it will not become like the West. It will remain in very fundamental respects very different. Now the big question here is obviously, how do we make sense of China? How do we try to understand what China is? And the problem we have in the West at the moment by-and-large is that the conventional approach is
that we understand i t really in Western terms, using Western ideas. We can’t. Now I want to offer you 3 building blocks for trying to understand what China is like just as a beginning.
现在我知道西方国家有一个普遍的假设随着国家的现代化，它们也会西方化。这是个幻想。这是对于现代化仅仅是竞争，市场和技术的一种产品的假设。中国的现代化不仅仅是这样的，也是由历史和文化共同作用下形成的。中国不同于西方国家，它也不会变成和西方国家一样。它会在非常基础的方面表现得非常不同。现在这的大问题明显是，我们该怎样认识中国？我们该怎样了解中国？在西方我们现在的问题大体上是传统的方法我们用西方的术语，用西方的观点来了解真正的中国。我们不能这样。现在我想给大家3个基础理由来试着了解中国只是起个头。
The first is this, that China is not really a nation state. Okay, it's called itself a nation state for the last hundred years. But everyone who knows anything about China knows it’s a lot older than this. This was what China looked with the victory of the Qin Dynasty in 221 B.C. at the end of warring state period—the birth of modern China. And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China. Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty, still 2000 years ago, and you can see already it occupies most of what we now know as Eastern China which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then and live now.
首先是这个，中国事实上不是一个民族国家。在过去的几百年，中国自称是一个民族国家。但对中国很了解的人知道中国比这历史要悠久得多。中国是在公元前221年也就在战国时期的末期从秦朝一统江山起，现代中国就诞生了。你可以看到现代中国的边界线。随之其后的汉朝，还在2000年前。你可以看出中国已经占据我们现在所知的华东地区的大部分，绝大多数的中国人当时在那儿居住现在还生活在那儿。
Now what is extraordinary about this is what gives China it’s sense of being China, what gives the Chinese the sense of what it is to be Chinese, comes not from the last hundred years, not from the nation state period which is what happened in the West, but from the period, if you like, of the civilization state. I’m thinking here, for example, of customs like ancestral worship, of a very distinctive notion of the state, likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family, social relationships like “guanxi”, Confucian values and so on. The se are all things that come from the period of the civilization state.
这点非同寻常的是，它赋予了中国做为中国的意义，也赋予了中国人成为他们中国人的意义，这不是从过去几百年，也不是从民族国家开始形成这种认识，这跟西方发展也不一样，而这一阶段，如果你喜欢，可以说是文明国家的阶段。我想到这儿，举个例子吧，传统习惯例如：对祖先的崇拜，非常有特色的国家概念，诸如此类的，非常有特色的家庭观念，社交关系如关系，儒家价值观等等。所有这些事都来自于文明国家的阶段。
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world, is shaped by its sense of civilization, its existence as a civilization state, rather than as a nation state.
换言之，中国不像世界上的西方国家和多数国家，它由它自身文明所形成，它
是作为一个文明国家而不是一个民族国家而存在的。
And there’s one other thing to add to this, and that is this. Of course we know China’s big, huge demographically and geographically, with a population of 1.3 billion people. What we often aren’t really aware of is the fact that China is extremely diverse and very pluralistic, and in many ways very decentralized. You can’t run a place on this scale simply from Beijing, even though we think this to be the case. It’s never been the case.
还有另一件事要加进来，这就是：当然我们知道中国是幅员辽阔，人口众多，在人口统计和地理上都是首屈一指，它有13亿人口。我们常常没关注的事实是中国也是极其多样化和非常多元化的，在许多方面甚至权力是非常分散化的。尽管我们认为不能仅从北京中央政府来管理这庞大规模的国家，我们以为会是这样，但从来都不是这样。
So this is China, a civilization state, rather than a nation state. And what does it mean? Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications. I'll give you two quick ones.
所以这才是中国，一个文明国家，而不是一个民族国家。那这意味着什么呢？那么我想这有很多种深刻的含义。我会给你两个简短介绍。
The first is that the most important political value for the Chinese is unity, is the maintenance of Chinese civilization. You know, 2000 years ago, Europe breakdown, the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire, it divided, and its remained divided ever since. China, over the same time period, went in exactly the opposite direction, very painfully holding this huge civilization, civilization state together.
第一个是中国人最主要的政治价值观是统一，用来维护中华文明。大家知道，2000年前，欧洲灭亡，神圣罗马帝国[罗马帝国]的分裂。从那时到现在，它不断地分裂。在同一时间段，中国却有着完全相反的方向，非常艰难地维系着这种强大的统一文明，把文明国家统一在一起。
The second is, maybe more prosaic, which is Hong Kong. Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong by Britain to China in 1997? You may remember what the Chinese constitutional proposition was, one country, two systems. And I’ll lay a wager that barely anyone in the West believed them. Window dressing. When China gets its hands on Hong Knong, that won’t be the case.
13 years on, the political and legal system in Hong Kong is as different now as it was in 1997. We were wrong. Why were we wrong? We were wrong because we though, naturally enough in nation state ways.
第二或许是更一般的例子香港的例子。大家是否记得香港在1997年从英国政府转交给中国政府？大家能记得中国宪法体制是什么吗？一国两制。我会打赌在西方没有人会信这一套。“装饰门面。当中国政府接手香港，这不可能。”13年来，香港现在的政治和司法体制和1997年一样，但和中国大陆的有所不同。我们都错了，为什么我们理解错了呢？我们错是因为我们理所当然地以民族国家角度思考。
Think of German unification, 1990. What happened? Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West. One nation, one system—that is the nation state mentality. But you can’t run a country like China, a civilization state on the
basis of one civilization, one system. It doesn't work. So actually the response of China to the question of Hong Kong—as it will be to the question of Taiwan—was a natural response: one civilization, many systems.
想想1990年德国统一。发生什么了？基本上东德被西德吞噬。一个国家，一个体制。这是民族国家的心态。但是你不能用此来管理一个像中国这样的, 一个文明国家，它建立在一种文明，一个体制上。这行不通。的确中国在香港问题上的回应也是在台湾问题上的回应，它是一个很自然的回应：一种文明，多种体制。
Let me offer you another building block to try to understand China, maybe it’s not such a comfortable one. The Chinese have a very very different conception of race to most other countries. Do you know of the 1.3 billion Chinese, over 90% of them think they belong to the same race, the Han. Now this is completely different from the other world’s most populous coun tries. India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil—all of them are multiracial. The Chinese don’t feel like that. China is only multiracial really at the margins. So the question is, why? Well, the reason I think essentially is again back to the civilization state. Very very…you know, at least 2000 years, a history of conquest, absorption, assimilation and so on, led to the process by which over time this notion of the Han emerged, of course, nurtured by a growing and very powerful sense of cultural identity.
让我来说另一个基础理由来试着了解中国, 这或许是一个让人不舒服的理由。中国与其他大多数国家对民族的概念有非常，非常不同的理解。大家知道，13亿中国人，超过90%的中国人认为他们属于同一个民族，汉族。目前这与世界上其它人口众多的国家截然相反。印度, 美国，印度尼西亚，巴西，他们都是多民族的。中国人没有感到过多民族。中国仅是在边界线上有多种少数民族的人。那问题是，为什么？好吧，我认为实质上，原因得再次追溯到这文明国家。至少在2000年的历史长河中，征服，占领，合并，同化等的历史随着时间的推移导致了汉民族这概念的形成过程当然，这概念也孕育了增强了汉文化认同感也使其变得非常强大, 具有深远意义。
Now the great advantage of this historical experience has been that, without the Han, China could never have held together. The Han identity has been the cement which has held this country together. The great disadvantage of it is that the Han have a very weak conception of cultural differences. They really believe in their own superiority, and they are disrespectful of those who are not. Hence their attitude, for example, to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
现在这历史经验的巨大优势呈现出来，没有汉民族，中国永远不可能连为一体。汉民族文化认同一直把这个国家粘合在一起。它的巨大的劣势是汉民族对文化差异有很少的认知概念。他们真正相信他们自身汉族文化的优越性，他们不尊重那些不同民族的差异性。因此, 举个例子，比如他们对待回族和藏族的态度。
Or let me give you my third building block, the Chinese state. Now the relationship between the state and society in China is very different from that in the West. Now we in the West are overwhelmingly seem to think—in these days at least—that the authority and legitimacy of the state is a function of
democracy. The problem of this proposition is that the Chinese state enjoys more legitimacy and more authority amongst the Chinese that is true with any Western state. And the reason for this is because—well, there’re two reasons I think. And it’s obviously got nothing to do with democracy, because in our terms the Chinese certainly don’t have a democracy.
让我给出第三个基础理由，中国式的国家。现在在中国国家和社会间的关系非常不同于西方的那种关系。在西方我们绝大多数人似乎认为--至少在最近国家的权威和合法性是民主的一个功能。有关这问题是中国这个国家对中国人民享有更多合法性和更多权威性这比起任何西方国家，它都是事实。这个的原因是因为我认为有两个理由。中国很明显与民主无关，因为依我们来看，中国完全称不上是民主。
And the reason for this is, firstly, because the state in China is given a very special. It enjoys a very special significance as the representative, the embodiment and the guardian of Chinese civilization, of the civilization state. This is as close as China gets to a kind of spiritual role.
这个理由是，首先，因为在中国，国家是一个非常特别有所指的，它享有一个非常特别的意义作为中华文明的代表，体现和捍卫者，也是代表中国国家的代表，化身和捍卫者。这也接近中国有种精神象征的作用。
And the second reason is because, whereas in Europe and North America, the state’s power is continuously challenged—I mean in the European tradition, historically against the church, against other sectors of the aristocracy, against merchants and so on. For 1000 years, the power of the Chinese state has not been challenged. It’s had no serious rivals. So you can see, the way in which power has been constructed in China is very different from our experience in Western history.
第二个理由是因为，反之在欧洲，北美洲，国家的权力不断受到挑战。我指在欧洲历史传统，历史上反对教堂，反对其它各种贵族阶级，反对商人等等有1000年历史，中国国家的权力从来没被挑战过。它没有真正的对手可抗衡。所以大家可以看到在中国已经建立的权力的方式与我们西方历史的经验非常不同。
The result, by the way, is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state. Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder, a stranger, certainly an organ whose powers need to be limited or defined and constrained, the Chinese don’t see the state like that at all. The Chinese view the state as an intimate—not just as an intimate actually, as a member of the family; not just in fact as a member of the family, but as the head of the family, the patriarch of the family. This the Chinese view of the state, very very different to us. It’s embedded in society in a different kind of way to what the case in the West.
顺便提一下，结果是中国人看待国家有非常不同的视角。鉴于我们倾向于把国家看作是一个入侵者，一个陌生人，当然是一个组织它的权力需要被限制或被界定和约束，中国人可一点都不这样看待国家。中国人视国家作为一个亲密的朋友，也不止是作为一个密友，作为家庭里的一员，事实上也不止是家里一员，而是一家之长，家庭里的家长。这是从中国视角来看待国家, 和我们的截然不同。根植于中国社会的案例与我们在西方的社会例证是完全不同的。
And I would suggest you that actually what we are dealing with here, in the
Chinese context, is a new kind of paradigm, which is different from anything we’ve had to think about in the past. You know that China believes in the state and market, I mean, Adam Smith already writing in the late 18th century, said, “the Chinese market is larger and more developed and more sophisticated than anything in Europe.” And, apart from the Mao period,that remained more-or-less the case ever since. But this is combined with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state. The state is everywhere in China. I mean, its leading firms, many of them are still publicly owned. Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo, depend in many ways on the state patronage. Targets for the economy and so on are set by the state. And the state, of course, its authority flows into lot of other areas as we are familiar with, with something like the one-child policy.
我给大家的建议是我们的确要了解在中国背景下，这是一种新的范例，它与我们过去曾想过的范例是不同的。要知道中国人相信市场和国有。我指，亚当·斯密在18世纪晚期已经著书，说过，“中国市场比起欧洲的任何一个市场，它都是较大的，较为发达的也是较为复杂的。”除了毛泽东时代，中国市场大体是如上的例证。但这也是在一个极强大和无处不在的国家做后盾。国家就是中国的一切。我指，它引领着公司，他们中的许多公司还是国企所有。私有企业，不管它们有多大，像Lenovo联想，在很多方面也依赖于国家的资助。国家设置了经济目标等等。当然，国家的权威也穿插在许多其他方面比如我们所述熟悉的独生子女政策。
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition, a very old tradition of statecraft. I mean, if you want an illustration of this, the Great Wall is one. But this is another, this is the Grand Canal, which was constructed in the first instance in the 5th century B.C. and was finally completed in the 7th century A.D. It went for 1114 miles, linking Beijing with Hangzhou and Shanghai. So there’s a long history of extraordinary state infrastructure projects in China, which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today, which is something like the Three Gorges Dam and many other expressions of state competence within China. So there we have 3 building blocks for trying to understand the difference that is China—the civilization state, the notion of race and the nature of the state and its relationship to society.
此外，中国是一个非常古老的传统国家，有一个非常古老传统的治国纲领。如果你想搞明白这样的例子，长城就是其中一个。但这有另一个，这是（京杭）大运河，它起初是在公元前5世纪被建造的在公元7世纪时它最终竣工。它有1114英里，链接北京到杭州和上海。在中国，非凡的国家大型基础建设的历史由来已久，我认为这也帮助我们来了解我们今天所看到的，例如三峡大坝工程和许多中国其它的国家工程业绩。所以这3个组成部分让我们了解中国的不同-- 文明国家，民族的概念和国家的属性以及它和社会的关系。
And yet we still insist, by-and-large, in thinking that we can understand China by simply drawing on Western experience, looking at it through Western eyes, using Western concepts. If you want to know why we unerringly to get China wrong, our predictions about what’s going to happen to China are incorrect, this is the reason. Unfortunately I think, I have to say that I think attitude
towards China is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality. There’s kind of arrogant. It’s arrogant in the sense that we think that we are best, and therefore we have the universal measure.
总地说来，我们还一直坚持认为我们仅从西方经验的视角就能理解中国通过西方人视角使用西方理念来看透中国。如果你想知道我们为什么对中国有错误的认识我们对在中国发生的事情的预言为什么也是不正确的这上所述就是原因。不幸的是我认为，我得说我认为对中国的态度是西方人的一种心态做崇。这是傲慢的心态。就傲慢的心态而言我们认为我们是最好的，因此我们有普世的评判标准。
And secondly, it’s ignorant. We refuse to really address the issue of difference. You know, there’s a very interesting passage in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian. And Paul Cohen argues that the West thinks of itself as probably the most cosmopolitan of all cultures. But it’s not. In many ways, it’s the most parochial, because for 200 years, the West has been so dominant in the world that it’s not reall y needed to understand other cultures, other civilizations. Because at the end of the day, it could, if necessary by force, get its own way. Whereas those cultures, virtually the rest of the world in fact, which have been in a far weaker position, vis-à-vis the West, have been thereby forced to understand the West, because the West’s presence in those societies. And, they are, as a result, more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
其次，这是无知的。我们拒绝真正承认问题的不同面。大家知道，美国历史学家保罗·柯文(Paul Cohen)的书里（《在中国发现历史——中国中心观在美国的兴起》）有一段非常有意思的话。保罗·柯文讲到西方认为它自身文化好比是所有文化里最具有国际化的文化。但事实不是。在许多方面，它是最狭隘的，因为200年来，西方一直主宰世界它不必去了解其他文化，其他文明。因为，到头来，必要时可动武，彰显其自身文化。反之这些其它文化几乎在世界其它地区的，事实上，面对西方文化，它们一直处于相对较弱的地位，从而也一直被迫来了解西方文化，因为西方文化在这些社会有影响力的原因。所以,结果是它们在许多方面比起西方更国际化。
I mean take the question of East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. a third of the world’s population lives there, now the largest economic region in the world. And I’ll tell you now, that East Asianers, people from East Asia, are far more knowledgeable about the West than the West is about East Asian.
Now this point is very germane, I’m afraid, to the present. Because what’s happening? Back to that chart at the beginning the Goldman Sachs chart. What is happening is that, very rapidly in historical terms, the world is being driven and shaped, not by the old developed countries, but by the developing world. I mean we’ve seen this in terms of the G20 usurping very rapidly the position of the G7 or the G8. And there are 2 consequences of this, first, the West is rapidly losing its influence in the world. There was a dramatic illustration of this actually, a year ago, Copenhagen, climate change conference, Europe was not at the final negotiating table. When did that last happen? I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago, and that is what
is going to happen in the future.
我们来谈谈东亚的问题。东亚：日本，韩国，中国等等-- 世界上三分之一人口住在那边，现在是全球最大的经济区域。现在我会告诉你，东亚人，东亚的人们，对西方的认识程度比起西方国家对东亚的认识程度要深的多。现在我恐怕这个观点到现在还是非常有影响的。因为发生的变化吗？回到开始的图表-- 高盛投资公司的图表。当前发生的是，在历史上非常迅速，世界不是被老旧的发达国家所驱动和塑造，而是被发展中新兴国家。我们看到这个G20二十国集团它非常迅速地抢占G7七国集团或者G8八国集团的地位。同时这有两个结果。第一，西方正快速地失去它在全球的影响。一年前就有一个戏剧性的例证证明这个观点哥本哈根，气候变化会议. 欧洲没有出现在最后讨论谈判桌上。上次欧洲置之事外是在什么时候？我敢打赌约在200年前也发生同样的事。在未来这还会发生。
And the second implication is that the world will inevitably as a consequence, become increasingly un familiar to us, because it’ll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories that we are not really familiar with or conversant with. And at last, I’m afraid, take Europe, America is slightly different, but Europeans by and large I have to say are ignorant, are unaware about the way the world is changing. Some people, I’ve got an English friend in China, he said “the continent is sleepwalking into oblivion.” Well maybe that’s true, maybe that’s an exaggeration. But there’s another problem wh ich goes along with this that Europe is increasing out of touch with the world and that is a sort of a loss of a sense of the future. I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future in its confidence. Take the 19th century for example, but this, alas, is no longer true.
第二个含义是世界将不可避免地急剧变化，对我们来说很陌生，因为世界被我们所不熟悉的或者不精通的文化，经验和历史所重塑。最后，我恐怕，拿欧洲来说，美国是有点不同的，但大体上，我得说欧洲人是无知的，他们没有意识到世界上正在发生的改变。有人，我有一个在中国的英国朋友，他说，“旧大陆在梦游似的会被遗忘。”好吧，恐怕是对的，恐怕这有点夸张。但另一问题随之产生欧洲正在日益与世界脱节这是一种对未来感的缺失。当然，我指欧洲曾自信地引领未来。拿19世纪来举例。唉，但这已经风光不在。
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future, try China—there’s old Confucius. This is a railway station the like of which you’ve never seen before. It doesn’t even look like a railway station. This is the new Guangzhou railway station for the high-speed trains. China already has more of the bigger network than any other country in the world and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together. Or take this: now this is an idea, but it’s an idea to be tried out shortly in a suburb of Beijing. Here you have a megbus, on the upper deck carries about 2000 people. It travels on rails down a suburban road, and the cars travel underneath it. And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour。
如果你想感知未来，如果你想感触未来，看看中国，这是古代的孔子。这是一个火车站这是你以前从未看到过的。它看上去不像是火车站。这是为了高速列
车行驶而新建的广州火车站。中国已经比起全球其他国家有更多的铁路网不久就会超过全球铁路网总和。举个例子：现在这是个想法，但这想法不久就会在北京郊区实现。这儿会有一辆超级公交，在公交上层会承载2000人。它会沿着郊区的路上轨道行驶，车辆可以在它下面穿行。它的时速可达每小时约100英里。Now this is the way things are going to move, because China has a very specific problem, which is different from Europe and different from the United States. China has huge numbers of people and no space. So this is a solution to a situation where China’s going to have many, many, man y cities over 20 million people。
现在这个就是未来交通方式，因为中国有非常具体问题，它有别于欧洲和美国。中国人口众多，但很少空间。所以当中国将会有越来越多的城市超过2000万人口时，这会是应对这种情况的解决方案。
Okay, so how would I like to finish? Well, what should our attitude be towards this world that we see very rapidly developing before us? I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it. But I want to argue above all, a big picture positive for this world. You know, for 200 years, the world was essentially governed by a fragment of the human population. That’s what Europe and North America represented. The arrival of countries like China and India—between them 38% of the world’s population, and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on, represent the most important single act of democratization in the last 200 years. Civilizations and cultures which had been ignored, which had no voice, which were not listened to, which were not known about, will have a different sort of representation in this world. As humanists, we must welcome, surely, this transformation. And we will have to learn about these civilizations.
好吧，那么我会怎样来做结论呢？那么，我们应该以怎样态度来面对这个呈现在我们面前飞速发展的世界？我认为关于此事，这会有好的方面也会有坏的方面。但首先，我想指出这世界所展现的是一幅积极正面的蓝图。200年来，世界基本上是被人类的一部分人所管辖。这是以欧洲和北美为代表的。新兴国家的崛起像中国和印度它们占世界人口的百分之三十八和其他国家如印度尼西亚和巴西等等，他们代表了在过去200年间最重要的人类活动民主化进程。曾被忽视，没有发言权的文明和文化，人们对此不了解，没听说过的文明和文化，它们将会在这世界上以与众不同地声音代言它们自身。作为人道主义者，我们必定要欢迎这种转型。我们还得学习这些文明。
This big ship here was the one sailed in by Zheng He in the early 15th century on his great voyages around the South China Sea, the East China Sea and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa. The little boat in front of it, was the one in which, 80 years later, Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic. Or, look carefully at this silk scroll made by Zhu Zhou in 1368. I think they’re playing golf. Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
Welcome to the future. Thank you!
这儿的大船是在15世纪早期郑和下西洋时航行的船，它穿过中国东海，南海然后穿行印度洋到达东非。这前面的小船是80年后，克里斯托弗·哥伦布穿行大西洋的船只。（笑声）或仔细看看这幅ZhuZhou朱周（音译）在1938年创
作的绢轴国画。我认为他们在打高尔夫。上帝啊，竟然是中国人发明了高尔夫球。欢迎来到未来。谢谢。
Ted中英对照演讲稿 大人能从小孩身上学到什么 Now, I want to start with a question: When was the last time you were called childish? For kids like me, being called childish can be a frequent occurrence. Every time we make irrational demands, exhibit irresponsible behavior, or display any other signs of being normal American citizens, we are called childish, which really bothers me. After all, take a look at these events: Imperialism and colonization, world wars, George W. Bush. Ask yourself: Who's responsible? Adults. 首先我要问大家一个问题：上一回别人说你幼稚是什么时候？像我这样的小孩，可能经常会被 人说成是幼稚。每一次我们提出不合理的要求，做出不负责任的行为，或者展现出有别于普通美 国公民的惯常行为之时，我们就被说成是幼稚。这让我很不服气。首先，让我们来回顾下这些事件：帝国主义和殖民主义，世界大战，小布什。请你们扪心自问下：这些该归咎于谁？是大人。 Now, what have kids done? Well, Anne Frank touched millions with her powerful account of the Holocaust, Ruby Bridges helped end segregation in the United States, and, most recently, Charlie Simpson helped to raise 120,000 pounds for Haiti on his little bike. So, as you can see evidenced by such examples, age has absolutely nothing to do with it. The traits the word childish addresses are seen so often in adults that we should abolish this age-discriminatory word when it comes to criticizing behavior associated with irresponsibility and irrational thinking. 而小孩呢，做了些什么？安妮·弗兰克(Anne Frank)对大屠杀强有力的叙述打动了数百万人的心。鲁比·布里奇斯为美国种族隔离的终结作出了贡献。另外，最近还有一个例子，查理·辛普 森（Charlie Simpson）骑自行车为海地募得 12万英镑。所以，这些例子证明了年龄与行为完 全没有关系。 "幼稚"这个词所对应的特点是常常可以从大人身上看到，由此我们在批评不负责 和非理性的相关行为时，应停止使用这个年龄歧视的词。 (Applause) Thank you. Then again, who's to say that certain types of irrational thinking aren't exactly what the world needs? Maybe you've had grand plans before, but stopped yourself, thinking: That's impossible or that costs too much or that won't
杨澜TED演讲：重塑中国的年轻一代（中英文对照） The night before I was heading for Scotland, I was invited to host the final of “China’s Got Talent” show in Shanghai with the 80,000 live audience in the stadium. Guess who was the performing guest? Susan Boyle. And I told her, “I’m going to Scotland the next day.” She sang beautifully, and she even managed to say a few words in Chinese. [Chinese] So it’s not like “hello” or “thank you,” that ordinary stuff. It means “green onion for free.” Why did she say that? Because it was a li ne from our Chinese parallel Susan Boyle — a 50-some year-old woman, a vegetable vendor in Shanghai, who loves singing Western opera, but she didn’t understand any English or French or Italian, so she managed to fill in the lyrics with vegetable names in C hinese. (Laughter) And the last sentence of Nessun Dorma that she was singing in the stadium was “green onion for free.” So [as] Susan Boyle was saying that, 80,000 live audience sang together. That was hilarious. 来苏格兰（做TED讲演）的前夜，我被邀请去上海做”中国达人秀“决赛的评委。在装有八万现场观众的演播厅里，在台上的表演嘉宾居然是（来自苏格兰的，因参加英国达人秀走红的）苏珊大妈（Susan Boyle)。我告诉她，“我明天就要启程去苏格兰。” 她唱得很动听，还对观众说了几句中文，她并没有说简单的”你好“或者”谢谢“，她说的是——“送你葱”（Song Ni Cong)。为什么？这句话其实来源于中国版的“苏珊大妈”——一位五十岁的以卖菜为生，却对西方歌剧有出奇爱好的上海中年妇女（蔡洪平）。这位中国的苏珊大妈并不懂英文，法语或意大利文，所以她将歌剧中的词汇都换做中文中的蔬菜名，并且演唱出来。在她口中，歌剧《图兰朵》的最后一句便是“Song Ni Cong”。当真正的英国苏珊大妈唱出这一句“中文的”《图兰朵》时，全场的八万观众也一起高声歌唱，场面的确有些滑稽（hilarious)。 So I guess both Susan Boyle and this vegetable vendor in Shanghai belonged to otherness. They were the least expected to be successful in the business called entertainment, yet their courage and talent brought them through. And a show and a platform gave them the stage to realize their dreams. Well, being different is not that difficult. We are all different from different perspectives. But I think being different is good, because you present a different point of view. You may have the chance to make a difference. 我想Susan Boyle和这位上海的买菜农妇的确属于人群中的少数。她们是最不可能在演艺界成功的，而她们的勇气和才华让她们成功了，这个节目和舞台给予了她们一个实现个人梦想的机会。这样看来，与众不同好像没有那么难。从不同的方面审视，我们每个人都是不同的。但是我想，与众不同是一件好事，因为你代表了不一样的观点，你拥有了做改变的机会。 My generation has been very fortunate to witness and participate in the historic transformation of China that has made so many changes in the past 20, 30 years. I remember that in the year of 1990, when I was graduating from college, I was applying for a job in the sales department of the first five-star hotel in Beijing, Great
TED英语演讲稿 When you are a kid, you get asked this one particular question a lot, it really gets kind of annoying. What do you want to be when you grow up? Now, adults are hoping for answers like, I want to be an astronaut or I want to be a neurosurgeon, youre adults in your imaginations. Kids, theyre most likely to answer with pro-skateboarder, surfer or minecraft player. I asked my little brother, and he said, seriously dude, Im 10, I have no idea, probably a pro-skier, lets go get some ice cream. See, us kids are going to answer something were stoked on, what we think is cool, what we have experience with, and thats typically the opposite of what adults want to hear. But if you ask a little kid, sometimes youll get the best answer, something so simple, so obvious and really profound. When I grow up, I want to be happy. For me, when I grow up, I want to continue to be happy like I am now. Im stoked to be here at TedEx, I mean, Ive been watching Ted videos for as long as I can remember, but I never thought Id make it on the stage here so soon. I mean, I just became a teenager, and like most teenage boys, I spend most of my time wondering,
TED演讲——拖延症 拖延症者的思维方式到底是什么样的？为什么有些人非要到deadline来的时候才知道打起精神做事情？是否存在执行力强的人或是说人人都有一定程度的拖延症？Tim Urban从一个被deadline 赶着走的拖延症者的角度带你走进拖延症的神奇思维世界。 中英对照翻译 So in college, I was a government major, which means I had to write a lot of papers. Now, when a normal student writes a paper, they might spread the work out a little like this. So, you know --you get started maybe a little slowly, but you get enough done in the first week that, with some heavier days later on, everything gets done, things stay civil.And I would want to do that like that. That would be the plan. I would have it all ready to go, but then, actually, the paper would come along, and then I would kind of do this. 在大学，我读的是政府专业。也就是说，我需要写很多的论文。一般的学生写论文时，他们可能会这样安排：(看图)你可能开头会慢一点，但第一周有这些已经足够。后期再一点点的增加，最后任务完成，非常的有条理。我也想这么做，所以一开始也是这么计划的。我做了完美的安排(看图)，但后来，实际上论文任务一直出现，我就只能这样了(看图)。 And that would happen every single paper. But then came my 90-page senior thesis, a paper you're supposed to spend a year on. And I knew for a paper like that, my normal work flow was not an option. It was way too big a project. So I planned things out, and I decided I kind of had to go something like this. This is how the year would go. So I'd start off light, and I'd bump it up in the middle months, and then at the end, I would kick it up into high gear just like a little staircase. How hard could it be to walk up the stairs? No big deal, right? 我的每一篇论文都是这种情况，直到我长达90页的毕业论文任务，这篇论文理应花一年的时间来做，我也知道这样的工作，我先前的工作方式是行不通的，这个项目太大，所以我制定了计划。决定按照这样的方式工作，这样来安排我这一年。(看图)开头我会轻松一点，中期任务逐渐增加，到最后，我再全力冲刺一下。整体是这种阶梯式安排，一层一层走楼梯有多难?所以没什么大不了的，是吧? But then, the funniest thing happened. Those first few months? They came and went, and I couldn't quite do stuff. So we had an awesome new revised plan. And then --But then those middle months actually went by, and I didn't really write words, and so we were here.And then two months turned into one month, which turned into two weeks. 但后来，好笑的事情出现了，头几个月时光匆匆而逝，我还没有来得及动工，所以我们明智的调整了计划。然后，中间的几个月也过去了，我还是一个字也没有动，眨眼就到了这里，然后两个月变成了一个月，再变成了2周。 And one day I woke up with three days until the deadline, still not having written a word, and so I did the only thing I could: I wrote 90 pages over 72 hours, pulling not one but two all-nighters -- humans are not supposed to pull two all-nighters -- sprinted across campus, dove in slow motion, and got it in just at the deadline. 一天我醒来，发现离交稿日期只剩3天了，但我还一个字都没写。我别无选择，只能在接下来的72小时里，连续通宵两个晚上赶论文——一般人不应连续通宵两个晚上。90页赶出来后，我飞速冲过校园，像电影中的特写慢镜头一样，恰好在截止日期前的最后一刻交上。 I thought that was the end of everything. But a week later I get a call, and it's the school. And they say, "Is this Tim Urban?" And I say, "Yeah." And they say, "We need to talk about your thesis." And I say, "OK." And they say, "It's the best one we've ever seen." That did not happen.It was a very, very bad thesis. I just wanted to enjoy that one moment when all of you thought, "This guy is amazing!" No, no, it was very, very bad. 我以为事情就这么完了，但一周后，我接到一个电话，是学校打来的。他们说：“你是Tim Urban 吗?”我说：“是。”他们说：“我们要说一说你的毕业论文。”我说：“好啊。”他们说：“这是我见过最棒
2016thomas suarez ted演讲稿中英文 thomassuarez年纪12岁的他，制作iphoneApp的他被大家称之为小乔布斯，在TED上发表精彩演讲，讲述他的童年时代那些创作故事，下面是第一公文网小编整理的thomassuarezted演讲稿中英文 thomassuarezted演讲稿中英文 Helloeveryone，mynameisThomasSuarez. I'vealwayshadafascinationforcomputersandtechnology,andImadeafewappsfort heiphone,ipodTouch,andipad.I'dliketoshareacouplewithyoutoday. 我一直都对计算机与科技很入迷，我研制了一些适用于Iphone,iTouch以及ipad的应用。今天，我想与大家分享一些我研发出的应用。 MyfirstappwasauniquefortunetellercalledEarthFortunethatwoulddisplaydifferen tcolorsofearthdependingonwhatyourfortunewas.Myfavoriteandmostsuccessfulappi sBustinJieber,whichis—(Laughter)—whichi saJustinBieberWhac-A-Mole. 我最先研制出的应用是一个叫EarthFortune的运势测试器，它能根据你的运势呈现不同颜色的地球图形我个人最喜欢、也是最成功的应用叫BustinJieber它是一个---(笑声)它是一个贾斯汀·比伯攻击器(Whac-A-Mole原意为"打地鼠"游戏) IcreateditbecausealotofpeopleatschooldislikedJustinBieberalittlebit,soIdeci dedtomaketheapp. 在学校里，我的很多同学都不太喜欢贾斯汀·比伯，所以我决定开发这样一个应用。 SoIwenttoworkprogrammingit,andIreleaseditjustbeforetheholidaysin2016. 于是我就开始写这个程序，并且在2016年圣诞假期和新年来临之前发布了这个应用。 Alotofpeopleaskme,howdidImakethese?Alotoftimesit'sbecausethepersonwhoas kedthequestionwantstomakeanappalso. 很多人都问我，是怎样开发出这些应用的?很多情况下，那些问这个问题的人，其实也想开发应用。 Alotofkidsthesedaysliketoplaygames,butnowtheywanttomakethem,andit'sdiff icult,becausenotmanykidsknowwheretogotofindouthowtomakeaprogram. 如今，很多的孩子都喜欢玩游戏，但是，现在他们也想制作游戏。这是很困难的，因为
When I was in my 20s, I saw my very first psychotherapy client. I was a Ph.D. student in clinical psychology at Berkeley. She was a 26-year-old woman named Alex. 记得见我第一位心理咨询顾客时,我才20多岁。当时我是Berkeley临床心理学在读博士生。我的第一位顾客是名叫Alex的女性,26岁。 Now Alex walked into her first session wearing jeans and a big slouchy top, and she dropped onto the couch in my office and kicked off her flats and told me she was there to talk about guy problems. Now when I heard this, I was so relieved. My classmate got an arsonist for her first client. (Laughter) And I got a twentysomething who wanted to talk about boys. This I thought I could handle. 第一次见面Alex穿着牛仔裤和宽松上衣走进来,她一下子栽进我办公室的沙 发上,踢掉脚上的平底鞋,跟我说她想谈谈男生的问题。当时我听到这个之后松了一口气。因为我同学的第一个顾客是纵火犯,而我的顾客却是一个20出头想谈谈男生的女孩。我觉得我可以搞定。But I didn't handle it. With the funny stories that Alex would bring to session, it was easy for me just to nod my head while we kicked the can down the road. 但是我没有搞定。Alex不断地讲有趣的事情,而我只能简单地点头认同她所 说的,很自然地就陷入了附和的状态。 "Thirty's the new 20," Alex would say, and as far as I could tell, she was right. Work happened later, marriage happened later, kids happened later, even death happened later. Twentysomethings like
越有钱越无情 It's amazing what a rigged game of Monopoly can reveal. In this entertaining but sobering talk, social psychologist Paul Piff shares his research into how people behave when they feel wealthy. (Hint: badly.) But while the problem of inequality is a complex and daunting challenge, there's good news too. (Filmed at TEDx Marin.) 一个被操纵的大富翁游戏能告诉我们的东西竟然有那么多！在这个有趣且发人深省的演讲中，社会心理学家保罗-皮夫分享了他对于“人感到富有时如何表现”的研究结果（暗示：很坏）。在面对异常复杂、异常严峻的不平等问题的同时，我们也听到了好的消息。。（摄于TEDx加州马林县） Paul Piff studies how social hierarchy, inequality and emotion shape relations between individuals and groups. Why you should listen: Paul Piff is an Assistant Professor of Psychology and Social Behavior at the University of California, Irvine. In particular, he studies how wealth (having it or not having it) can affect interpersonal relationships. His surprising studies include running rigged games of Monopoly, tracking how those who drive expensive cars behave versus those driving less expensive vehicles and even determining that rich people are literally more likely to take candy from children than the less well-off. The results often don't paint a pretty picture about the motivating forces of wealth. He writes, "specifically, I have been finding that increased wealth and status in society lead to increased self-focus and, in turn, decreased compassion, altruism, and ethical behavior." What others say: “When was the last time, as Piff puts it, that you prioritized your own interests above the interests of other people? Was it yesterday, when you barked at the waitress for not delivering your cappuccino with sufficient promptness? Perhaps it was last week, when, late to
ted演讲稿中英文对照 小编今天推荐给大家的是 ted演讲稿中英文对照，仅供参考，希望对大家有用。关注网获得更多内容。 ted演讲稿中英文对照 Hi. I'm here to talk to you about the importance of praise, admiration and thank you, and having it be specific and genuine. 嗨。我在这里要和大家谈谈向别人表达赞美，倾佩和谢意的重要性。并使它们听来真诚，具体。 And the way I got interested in this was, I noticed in myself, when I was growing up, and until about a few years ago, that I would want to say thank you to someone, I would want to praise them, I would want to take in their praise of me and I'd just stop it. And I asked myself, why? I felt shy, I felt embarrassed. And then my question became, am I the only one who does this? So, I decided to investigate. 之所以我对此感兴趣是因为我从我自己的成长中注意到几年前，当我想要对某个人说声谢谢时，当我想要赞美他们时，当我想接受他们对我的赞扬，但我却没有说出口。我问我自己，这是为什么? 我感到害羞，我感到尴尬。接着我产生了一个问题难道我是唯一一个这么做的人吗?
Yang Lan: The generation that's remaking China The night before I was heading for Scotland, I was invited to host the final of "China's Got Talent" show in Shanghai with the 80,000 live audience in the stadium. Guess who was the performing guest?Susan Boyle. And I told her, "I'm going to Scotland the next day." She sang beautifully, and she even managed to say a few words in Chinese. [Chinese]So it's not like "hello" or "thank you," that ordinary stuff. It means "green onion for free." Why did she say that? Because it was a line from our Chinese parallel Susan Boyle -- a 50-some year-old woman, a vegetable vendor in Shanghai, who loves singing Western opera, but she didn't understand any English or French or Italian, so she managed to fill in the lyrics with vegetable names in Chinese. (Laughter) And the last sentence of Nessun Dorma that she was singing in the stadium was "green onion for free." So [as] Susan Boyle was saying that, 80,000 live audience sang together. That was hilarious. So I guess both Susan Boyle and this vegetable vendor in Shanghai belonged to otherness. They were the least expected to be successful in the business called entertainment, yet their courage and talent brought them through. And a show and a platform gave them the stage to realize their dreams. Well, being different is not that difficult. We are all different from different perspectives. But I think being different is good, because you present a different point of view. You may have the chance to make a difference. My generation has been very fortunate to witness and participate in the historic transformation of China that has made so many changes in the past 20, 30 years. I remember that in the year of 1990,when I was graduating from college, I was applying for a job in the sales department of the first five-star hotel in Beijing, Great Wall Sheraton -- it's still there. So after being interrogated by this Japanese manager for a half an hour, he finally said, "So, Miss Yang, do you have any questions to ask me?"I summoned my courage and poise and said,"Yes, but could you let me know, what actually do you sell?" I didn't have a clue what a sales department was about in a five-star hotel. That was the first day I set my foot in a five-star hotel. Around the same time, I was going through an audition -- the first ever open audition by national television in China -- with another thousand college girls. The producer told us they were looking for some sweet, innocent and beautiful fresh face. So when it was my turn, I stood up and said, "Why [do] women's personalities on television always have to be beautiful, sweet, innocent and, you know, supportive? Why can't they have their own ideas and their own voice?" I thought I kind of offended them. But actually, they were impressed by my words. And so I was in the second round of competition, and then the third and the fourth. After seven rounds of competition, I was the last one to survive it. So I was on a national television prime-time show. And believe it or not, that was the first show on Chinese television that allowed its hosts to speak out of their own minds without reading an approved script. (Applause) And my weekly audience at that time was between 200 to 300 million people. Well after a few years, I decided to go to the U.S. and Columbia University to pursue my postgraduate studies, and then started my own media company, which was unthought of during the years that I started my career. So we do a lot of things. I've interviewed more than a thousand people in the past. And sometimes I have young people approaching me say, "Lan, you changed
TED演讲：如何成为一个更好的交谈者？（中英对照） Celeste Headlee 是一个靠交谈吃饭的人，她的工作是电台主持人。在几十年的工作中，她学到了很多沟通技巧，同时也发现居然有如此多的人真的很不会聊天。 下面是她在TED 上分享的10 条提高谈话质量的方法。全是干货，来一起学习：【视频请在wifi情况下观看，文字为中英对照】如何成为一个更好的交谈者格鲁吉亚公共广播节目主持人：Celeste Headlee 首先，我想让大家举手示意一下，有多少人曾经在Facebook 上拉黑过好友，因为他们发表过关于政治，宗教，儿童权益，或者食物等不恰当的言论，有多少人至少有一个不想见的人，因为你就是不想和对方说话？ All right, I want to see a show of hands how many of you have unfriended someone on Facebook because they said something offensive about politics or religion, childcare, food? And how many of you know at least one person that you avoid because you just don’t want to talk to them? 要知道，在过去想要一段礼貌的交谈我们只要遵循亨利﹒希金斯在《窈窕淑女》中的忠告，只谈论天气和你的健康状况就行了。但这些年随着气候变化以及反对疫苗运动的开展——这招不怎么管用了。
因此，在我们生活的这个世界，这个每一次交谈都有可能发展为争论的世界，政客无法彼此交谈。甚至为那些鸡毛蒜皮的事情，都有人群情绪激昂地赞成或者反对，这太不正常了。皮尤研究中心对一万名美国成年人做了一次调查，发现此刻我们的偏激程度，我们立场鲜明的程度，比历史上任何时期都要高。 You know, it used to be that in order to have a polite conversation, we just had to follow the advice of Henry Higgins in “My Fair Lady”: Stick to the weather and your health. But these days, with climate change and anti-vaxxing, those subjects—are not safe either. So this world that we live in, this world in which every conversation has the potential to devolve into an argument, where our politicians can’t speak to one another, and where even the most trivial of issues have someone fighting both passionately for it and against it, it’s not normal. Pew Research did a study of 10,000 American adults, and they found that at this moment, we are more polarized; we are more divided than we ever have been in history. 我们更不倾向于妥协，这意味着我们没有倾听彼此。我们做的各种决定，选择生活在何处，与谁结婚甚至和谁交朋友，都只基于我们已有的信念。再重复一遍，这只说明我们没有