2013建模美赛书信.doc
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Dear
manager:
People all over the world are faced with more and more critical water shortages of different
degrees and these issues will also become one of the most challenging challenges. For china,
Urbanization and industrialization are only increasing China’s demand for more water, straining
already depleted sources.
Based on the history of water and water consumption data analysis, we forecasted there will be
52.6 billion m3 of water lack in 2025. Aimed to fill the huge gap between supply and demand, we
decide to design a strategy mainly depends on the four numerical results, treating the qualitative
results as an addition.
In water allocation: Give priority to develop local allocation under the instruction in 3.2, carry out
the region-region plan. If the water supply is still in shortage. The maximum total budget of this
strategy is by 3694.92 hundred-million RMB the amount of rearranged freshwater is 55 billion m3
per year.
In seawater desalt: In order to meet the demand of areas along the coastline, we need to keep a
increasing rate at 10%. Thus the seawater desalt can benefit the areas well in 2025. The expected
primary investment during the following years is 4.35 billion RMB, and the operating cost will be
2.60 RMB per cube. Thus the scale of water desalt will reach 3.3~4.2 million ton per day.
In wastewater treatment: We recommend a 40.4 billion sized invest to decrease the damage of
environment caused by water pollution. In 2025, the treated wastewater will reach 82.6 billion
m3 per year. Thus the environment will be capable to keep the level water supply.
In irrigation: We desperately recommend reforming irrigation pattern, as the water use efficiency
in China is quite low in irrigation and quantities of water are used in agriculture. Reform 25% of
the arable land, by using 263 billion RMB, the maximum quantity saved water will reach 79.0
billion m3 per year. In consideration of local situation, the amount of saved water may decline to
a degree, but the amount is still significant.
Why our strategy is a better one?
We base our decision on precise calculation and analysis of every single listed method. We puts
forward different scheme for different areas,and gives the specific investment and return data.
Anymore mathematical model is applied in the detailed implement plan whilst economic,
physical and environmental impacts are all foreseen. Using our strategy can ensure the water
supply enough, and is well to the sustainable development.
Yours sincerely