英译汉原文：
Are We There Yet?
America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit.
“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak? That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy. When policy is loosened, demand rebounds. This recession was the result of a financial crisis. Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt. Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014. By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.
Battling on the bus
America’s biggest problem is that its poli ticians have yet to acknowledge that the economy is in for such a long, slow haul, let alone prepare for the consequences.
A few brave officials are beginning to sound warnings that the jobless rate is likely to “stay high”. But the political debate is mor e about assigning blame for the recession than about suggesting imaginative ways to give more oomph to the recovery. Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s shift towards “big government” explains
the economy’s weakness, and that high unemployment is proof t hat fiscal stimulus was a bad idea. In fact, most of the growth in government to date has been temporary and unavoidable; the longer-run growth in government is more modest, and reflects the policies of both Mr Obama and his predecessor. And the notion that high joblessness “proves” that stimulus failed is simply wrong. The mechanics of a financial bust suggest that without a fiscal boost the recession would have been much worse.
Democrats have their own class-warfare version of the blame game, in which Wall Street’s excesses caused the problem and higher taxes on high-earners are part of the solution. That is why Mr. Obama’s legislative priority before the mid-terms is to ensure that the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year for households earning more than $250,000 but are extended for everyone else.
This takes an unnecessary risk with the short-term recovery. America’s experience in 1937 and Japan’s in 1997 are powerful evidence that ill-timed tax rises can tip weak economies back into recession. Higher taxes at the top, along with the waning of fiscal stimulus and belt-tightening by the states, will make a weak growth rate weaker still. Less noticed is that Mr. Obama’s fiscal plan will also worsen the medium-term budget mess, by making tax cuts for the middle class permanent.
Ways to overhaul the engine
In an ideal world America would commit itself now to the medium-term tax reforms and spending cuts needed to get a grip on the budget, while leaving room to keep fiscal policy loose for the moment. But in febrile, partisan Washington that is a pipe-dream. Today’s goals can only be more modest: to nurture the weak economy, minimize uncertainty and prepare the ground for tomorrow’s fiscal debate. To that end, Congress ought to extend all the Bush tax cuts until 2013. Then they should all expire—prompting a serious fiscal overhaul, at a time when the economy is stronger.
A broader set of policies could help to work off the hangover faster. One priority is to encourage more write-downs of mortgage debt. Almost a quarter of all Americans with mortgages owe more than their houses are worth. Until that changes the vicious cycle of rising foreclosures and falling prices will continue. There are plenty of ideas on offer, from changing the bankruptcy law so that judges can restructure mortgage debt to empowering special trustees to write down loans. They all have drawbacks, but a fetid pool of underwater mortgages will, much like Japan’s loans to zombie firms, corrode the financial system and harm the recovery.
C leaning up the housing market would help cut America’s unemployment rate, by making it easier for people to move to where jobs are. But more must be done to stop high joblessness becoming entrenched. Payroll-tax cuts and credits to reduce the cost of hiring would help. (The health-care reform, alas, does the opposite, at least for small businesses.) Politicians will also have to think harder about training schemes, because some workers lack the skills that new jobs require.
Americans are used to great distances. The sooner they, and their politicians, accept
that the road to recovery will be a long one, the faster they will get there.
译文：
我们到达目的地了吗？
与大多数衰退之后的复苏相比，这次美国经济的复苏会慢得多。
不过政府还是可以有些许作为的。
“美国，你将去往何方？”半个世纪前，杰克•凯鲁亚克代表垮掉的一代提出了这个问题。
它表明了当今世界经济的最不确定性，也反映了美国选民们的最大担忧。
11月2日选民们要去投票站进行国会中期选举投票，而此时美国的失业率顽固地保持在将近十分之一上。
摆在他们面前的将是一次漫长而艰难的跋涉，对此他们应该有所准备。
20世纪30年代以来最让人揪心的一次经济衰退于一年前结束。
可是，一开始就不太强劲的复苏于今年早些时候急速放缓。
今年第二季度国内生产总值同比只增长了可怜巴巴的1.6％，而且此后似乎就停留在这一速度上下了。
房市也随着买房临时税收优惠政策的过期而暴跌。
私营企业创造的就业机会太少，失业率很可能不降反升。
整个夏天人们越来越担心，如果此次减速持续下去，美国经济将重陷衰退。
幸好，这些担心现在看来是被夸大了。
第二季度国内生产总值增长较弱的部分原因可能是从中国的进口临时激增所致。
最新的统计数据——从八月份相当不错的零售业绩到领取失业救济金人数的下降——表明，虽然经济仍然疲弱，但已经不再继续下滑。
而历史经验表明，初期一两个季度的恢复往往是处于摆动状态，但很少重新陷入衰退。
目前看来，美国经济最有可能将以约2.5％的增速缓慢爬行——不再停滞，但要明显降低失业率，这样的增速显得太慢。
既然美国经济通常都会从衰退中反弹，那么这次的前景为什么又是如此黯淡？这是因为以前的大多数经济衰退都是由从紧的货币政策造成的。
一旦政策松动，需求就会反弹。
而此次衰退是由金融危机引发的。
金融危机之后的恢复通常缓慢、疲弱，因为银行系统需要修复、资产负债表需要重建。
通常情况下，减债期要持续七年左右。
这意味着美国将在2014年走出减债期。
家家户户都在采取措施非常快地减少债务负担，但是，即使乐观的预言家也认为这一过程还远未过半。
旅途对决
美国最大的问题是，政治家们还不承认其经济正处于一个漫长而缓慢的恢复期，更不用说对其后果有所准备了。
一些勇敢的官员已经开始警告说，失业率很可能“居高不下”。
但是，政治辩论更多的还是纠缠于为经济衰退诘责，而不是提出有建设性的办法来给经济的恢复增加活力。
共和党人称，经济疲软的原因是巴拉克•奥巴马要推行“大政府”，而高失业率证明了财政刺激是一个糟糕的主意。
事实上，迄今为止，大部分的政府开支增长都是暂时性的、不可避免的；政府开支的长期性增长还是比较温和、适度的，这反映了奥巴马及其前任的政策。
那种认为高失业率“证明了”刺激是失败的观念是完全错误的。
金融萧条的规律表明，如果没有财政刺激，经济衰退会更加严重。
对于是非曲直，民主党人有自己的论调。
他们认为是华尔街的无度贪婪导致了这场危机；其解决方案就包括对高收入者征收高额税金。
中期选举前奥巴马的立法工作重点是务必使年收入超过25万美元的家庭不再享受布什政府的减税政策，而该政策对其他人继续有效，其原因就在于此。
对于短期复苏来说，这是在冒不必要的风险。
1937的美国和1997的日本都强有力地证明，不合时宜的增税会使疲软的经济重新陷入衰退。
高税赋外加逐渐减弱的财政刺激和州政府的紧缩政策将使本来就微弱的增速变得更加缓慢。
很少有人注意到，奥巴马先生为中产阶级永
久减税的财政计划也将使混乱的中期预算变得更加严峻。
如何检修引擎
理想情况下，为了控制预算，美国现在应致力于中期税制改革和削减开支，同时又要留有余地，暂时维持宽松的财政政策。
然而，在党争激烈的华盛顿，这只能是空想。
眼下的目标只能是保守一些：呵护疲软的经济、最大限度地减少不确定性以及为下一轮的财政辩论做准备。
为此，国会应该将布什政府的全部减税政策延续到2013年。
到那时，趁经济比现在强劲时，减税政策应全部失效。
此时，美国的财政政策也需要认真地做一次大调整了。
实行一套更宽泛的政策有助于快速解决遗留问题。
其中的一个重点就是要进一步鼓励减免抵押贷款债务。
在全部有抵押贷款的美国人当中，差不多有四分之一的人欠债超过了他们的房产价值。
在此情况改变之前，越来越多的回赎权被取消和价格下跌的恶性循环将继续下去。
解决的办法有很多，包括修改破产法，从而允许法官调整抵押贷款债务数额，以及授权特别受托人减免还款额等。
这些办法都有缺点，但是，与日本的僵尸企业贷款一样，价值缩了水的抵押物如同一潭臭水，会腐蚀金融体系，危害经济复苏。
清理房市会降低人们搬家寻找工作的难度，因而有助于降低美国的失业率。
但要防止失业率长期居高不下，还有好多事情要做。
减免工资税能够降低雇佣成本，从而有助于减少失业。
（可惜，医疗改革的影响恰恰相反——至少对小企业而言如是。
）政治家们还需要认真考虑培训方案，因为有些劳动者缺乏新工作所需要的技能。
美国人早已习惯了长途跋涉。
眼前的复苏之路是漫长的，美国人及其政治家们越早承认这一点，就能越快地到达目的地。
英译汉原文：
Are We There Yet?
America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit.
“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely
that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak? That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy. When policy is loosened, demand rebounds. This recession was the result of a financial crisis. Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt. Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014. By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.
Battling on the bus
Ameri ca’s biggest problem is that its politicians have yet to acknowledge that the economy is in for such a long, slow haul, let alone prepare for the consequences.
A few brave officials are beginning to sound warnings that the jobless rate is likely to “stay high”. But the political debate is more about assigning blame for the recession than about suggesting imaginative ways to give more oomph to the recovery. Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s shift towards “big government” explains the economy’s weakness, and that high unemployment is proof that fiscal stimulus was a bad idea. In fact, most of the growth in government to date has been temporary and unavoidable; the longer-run growth in government is more modest, and reflects the policies of both Mr Obama and his predecessor. And the notion that high joblessness “proves” that stimulus failed is simply wrong. The mechanics of a financial bust suggest that without a fiscal boost the recession would have been much worse.
Democrats have their own class-warfare version of the blame game, in which Wall Street’s excesses caused the problem and higher taxes on high-earners are part of the solution. That is why Mr. Obama’s legislative priority before the mid-terms is to ensure that the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year for households earning more than $250,000 but are extended for everyone else.
This takes an unnecessary risk with the short-term recovery. America’s experience in 1937 and Japan’s in 1997 are powerful evidence that ill-timed tax rises can tip weak economies back into recession. Higher taxes at the top, along with the waning of fiscal stimulus and belt-tightening by the states, will make a weak growth rate weaker still. Less noticed is that Mr. Obama’s fiscal plan will also worsen the medium-term budget mess, by making tax cuts for the middle class permanent.
Ways to overhaul the engine
In an ideal world America would commit itself now to the medium-term tax reforms and spending cuts needed to get a grip on the budget, while leaving room to keep fiscal policy loose for the moment. But in febrile, partisan Washington that is a pipe-dream. Today’s goals can only be more modest: to nurture the weak economy,
minimize uncertainty and prepare the ground for tomorrow’s fiscal debate. To that end, Congress ought to extend all the Bush tax cuts until 2013. Then they should all expire—prompting a serious fiscal overhaul, at a time when the economy is stronger.
A broader set of policies could help to work off the hangover faster. One priority is to encourage more write-downs of mortgage debt. Almost a quarter of all Americans with mortgages owe more than their houses are worth. Until that changes the vicious cycle of rising foreclosures and falling prices will continue. There are plenty of ideas on offer, from changing the bankruptcy law so that judges can restructure mortgage debt to empowering special trustees to write down loans. They all have drawbacks, but a fetid pool of underwater mortgages will, much like Japan’s loans to zombie firms, corrode the financial system and harm the recovery.
Cleaning up the housing market would help cut America’s unemployment rate, by making it easier for people to move to where jobs are. But more must be done to stop high joblessness becoming entrenched. Payroll-tax cuts and credits to reduce the cost of hiring would help. (The health-care reform, alas, does the opposite, at least for small businesses.) Politicians will also have to think harder about training schemes, because some workers lack the skills that new jobs require.
Americans are used to great distances. The sooner they, and their politicians, accept that the road to recovery will be a long one, the faster they will get there.
译文：
我们到达目的地了吗？
与大多数衰退之后的复苏相比，这次美国经济的复苏会慢得多。
不过政府还是可以有些许作为的。
“美国，你将去往何方？”半个世纪前，杰克•凯鲁亚克代表垮掉的一代提出了这个问题。
它表明了当今世界经济的最不确定性，也反映了美国选民们的最大担忧。
11月2日选民们要去投票站进行国会中期选举投票，而此时美国的失业率顽固地保持在将近十分之一上。
摆在他们面前的将是一次漫长而艰难的跋涉，对此他们应该有所准备。
20世纪30年代以来最让人揪心的一次经济衰退于一年前结束。
可是，一开始就不太强劲的复苏于今年早些时候急速放缓。
今年第二季度国内生产总值同比只增长了可怜巴巴的1.6％，而且此后似乎就停留在这一速度上下了。
房市也随着买房临时税收优惠政策的过期而暴跌。
私营企业创造的就业机会太少，失业率很可能不降反升。
整个夏天人们越来越担心，如果此次减速持续下去，美国经济将重陷衰退。
幸好，这些担心现在看来是被夸大了。
第二季度国内生产总值增长较弱的部分原因可能是从中国的进口临时激增所致。
最新的统计数据——从八月份相当不错的零售业绩到领取失业救济金人数的下降——表明，虽然经济仍然疲弱，但已经不再继续下滑。
而历史经验表明，初期一两个季度的恢复往往是处于摆动状态，但很少重新陷入衰退。
目前看来，美国经济最有可能将以约2.5％的增速缓慢爬行——不再停滞，但要明显降低失业率，这样的增速显得太慢。
既然美国经济通常都会从衰退中反弹，那么这次的前景为什么又是如此黯淡？这是因为以前的大多数经济衰退都是由从紧的货币政策造成的。
一旦政策松动，需求就会反弹。
而此次衰退是由金融危机引发的。
金融危机之后的恢复通常缓慢、疲弱，因为银行系统需要修复、资产负债表需要重建。
通常情况下，减债期要持续七年左右。
这意味着美国将在2014年走出
减债期。
家家户户都在采取措施非常快地减少债务负担，但是，即使乐观的预言家也认为这一过程还远未过半。
旅途对决
美国最大的问题是，政治家们还不承认其经济正处于一个漫长而缓慢的恢复期，更不用说对其后果有所准备了。
一些勇敢的官员已经开始警告说，失业率很可能“居高不下”。
但是，政治辩论更多的还是纠缠于为经济衰退诘责，而不是提出有建设性的办法来给经济的恢复增加活力。
共和党人称，经济疲软的原因是巴拉克•奥巴马要推行“大政府”，而高失业率证明了财政刺激是一个糟糕的主意。
事实上，迄今为止，大部分的政府开支增长都是暂时性的、不可避免的；政府开支的长期性增长还是比较温和、适度的，这反映了奥巴马及其前任的政策。
那种认为高失业率“证明了”刺激是失败的观念是完全错误的。
金融萧条的规律表明，如果没有财政刺激，经济衰退会更加严重。
对于是非曲直，民主党人有自己的论调。
他们认为是华尔街的无度贪婪导致了这场危机；其解决方案就包括对高收入者征收高额税金。
中期选举前奥巴马的立法工作重点是务必使年收入超过25万美元的家庭不再享受布什政府的减税政策，而该政策对其他人继续有效，其原因就在于此。
对于短期复苏来说，这是在冒不必要的风险。
1937的美国和1997的日本都强有力地证明，不合时宜的增税会使疲软的经济重新陷入衰退。
高税赋外加逐渐减弱的财政刺激和州政府的紧缩政策将使本来就微弱的增速变得更加缓慢。
很少有人注意到，奥巴马先生为中产阶级永久减税的财政计划也将使混乱的中期预算变得更加严峻。
如何检修引擎
理想情况下，为了控制预算，美国现在应致力于中期税制改革和削减开支，同时又要留有余地，暂时维持宽松的财政政策。
然而，在党争激烈的华盛顿，这只能是空想。
眼下的目标只能是保守一些：呵护疲软的经济、最大限度地减少不确定性以及为下一轮的财政辩论做准备。
为此，国会应该将布什政府的全部减税政策延续到2013年。
到那时，趁经济比现在强劲时，减税政策应全部失效。
此时，美国的财政政策也需要认真地做一次大调整了。
实行一套更宽泛的政策有助于快速解决遗留问题。
其中的一个重点就是要进一步鼓励减免抵押贷款债务。
在全部有抵押贷款的美国人当中，差不多有四分之一的人欠债超过了他们的房产价值。
在此情况改变之前，越来越多的回赎权被取消和价格下跌的恶性循环将继续下去。
解决的办法有很多，包括修改破产法，从而允许法官调整抵押贷款债务数额，以及授权特别受托人减免还款额等。
这些办法都有缺点，但是，与日本的僵尸企业贷款一样，价值缩了水的抵押物如同一潭臭水，会腐蚀金融体系，危害经济复苏。
清理房市会降低人们搬家寻找工作的难度，因而有助于降低美国的失业率。
但要防止失业率长期居高不下，还有好多事情要做。
减免工资税能够降低雇佣成本，从而有助于减少失业。
（可惜，医疗改革的影响恰恰相反——至少对小企业而言如是。
）政治家们还需要认真考虑培训方案，因为有些劳动者缺乏新工作所需要的技能。
美国人早已习惯了长途跋涉。
眼前的复苏之路是漫长的，美国人及其政治家们越早承认这一点，就能越快地到达目的地。
