商业经济类（Passage13～18）
Passage13
题材：商业经济类字数：587建议用时：6分钟
In recent years rums have stuffed a lot more money into their final-salary pension schemes.With a fair wind from more favorable markets,that helped to plug the big deficits that had emerged.
Now it turns out that some of the improvement may be illusory.The Pensions Regulator said this week in a consultation paper that it will insist on tougher assumptions about longevity trends when the trustees responsible for the schemes get actuarial valuations.The new guidance will increase pension liabilities.
Actuaries have been caught out by startling falls in death rates among older people.In the1980s life expectancy for men aged65rose by a year.In the1990s it went up by two years,and official forecasts suggest that it will increase by2.5years in the current decade.Gains for women aged65,who live longer than men,have been less dramatic—an extra year a decade in the1980s and1990s—but they have also picked up,to1.5years,in the2000s.
These big improvements reflect especially steep falls in death rates for people born between1920and1945.A crucial question is how much longer this“golden cohort”will lead the way to lower mortality.According to the regulator,55%of pension schemes have been assuming that the big declines in death rates will taper away to more normal falls by2020;11%that they will fade by2010;and virtually all
the others have paid no heed to the phenomenon.
The watchdog wants schemes to pick2040as the date when the golden cohort's super-fast mortality reductions draw to an end.It is also serving notice on valuations that assume an eventual end to improvements in longevity.Instead they should allow for future falls in death rates of at least1%a year.The scope for further gains in life expectancy is clear in the gap between Britain and other countries where longevity is higher,especially for women.
The new guidance may be more realistic but it will be a cold shower for firms with final-salary schemes.It will raise life expectancy assumptions for people retiring today by two to three years.According to the regulator,an increase of a year pushes up pension-scheme liabilities by2.5%,which suggests that they would rise by between5%and7.5%.Some accountancy firms even think that the liabilities will rise by as much as10%.
The watchdog's tough line on longevity is not the only worry for firms with final-salary schemes.In a recent discussion paper,the Accounting Standards Board called tot the discount rate,which is used to calculate the present value of future pensions,to be based on government rather than high-quality corporate bonds. This would push up pension-scheme liabilities,which vary inversely with the discount rate;because gilts are safer than company debt and so have a lower yield.
Like the regulator's guidance on longevity,the ASB's proposal injects realism.If companies generally become more likely to default,then corporate-bond spreads —the extra interest they pay compared with gilts—will rise.Perversely,that will
