数据挖掘论文英文版

Jilin Province’s population growth and energy consumption analysis

Demonstration Illustration Conduction & suggestion English

Major Statistics Student No. 0401083710 Name Niu Fukuan Jilin Province’s population growth and energy consumption analysis [Summary] Since the third technological revolution, the energy has become the lifeline of national economy, while the energy on Earth is limited, so in between the major powers led to a number of oil-related or simply a war for oil. In order to compete on the world's resources and energy control, led to the outbreak of two world wars. China's current consumption period coincided with the advent of high-energy, CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC three state-owned oil giants have been "going out" to develop international markets, Jilin Province as China's energy output and energy consumption province, is also active in the energy corresponding diplomacy. Economic globalization and increasingly fierce competition in the energy environment, China's energy policy is still there are many imperfections, to a certain extent, affect the energy and population development of Jilin Province, China and even to some extent can be said existing population crisis is the energy crisis.

[Keyword] Energy consumption; Population; Growth; Analysis;

Data source I select data from "China Statistical Yearbook 2009" Jilin Province 1995-2007 comprehensive annual financial data (Table 1). Record of the total population (end) of the annual data sequence {Xt}, mind full of energy consumption (kg of standard coal) annual data sequence {Yt}. Table 1 1995-2007 older and province GDP per capita consumption level of all data

Years Of the total population Xt National energy consumption (kg) Yt

LN Of the total population Xt LN National energy

consumption(kg) Yt

1995 121121 15842626.8 11.70454532 16.57821476 1996 122389 17807599.5 11.71495978 16.69513586 1997 123626 16454620.6 11.72501616 16.61611688 1998 124761 14459799.9 11.73415519 16.48688294 1999 125786 15270420.4 11.74233733 16.54142821 2000 126743 16020315.2 11.74991669 16.58936817 2001 127627 16629798.1 11.75686723 16.62670671 2002 128453 17585215.7 11.76331836 16.68256909 2003 129227 19888035.3 11.76932583 16.80562887 2004 129988 21344029.6 11.77519742 16.87628261 2005 130756 23523004.4 11.78108827 16.97348941 2006 131448 25592925.6 11.78636662 17.05782653 2007 132129 26861825.7 11.791534 17.10621672

1. Timing diagram First, the total population of Table 1 (end) of the annual data series {Xt}, full of energy consumption (kg of standard coal) annual data series {Yt} are drawn timing diagram, in order to observe the annual population data series {Xt} and national annual energy consumption data sequence {Yt} is stationary, by EVIEWS software output is shown below.

Figure 1 of the total population (end) sequence timing diagram Figure 2 universal life energy consumption (kg of standard coal) sequence timing diagram Figure 1 is a sequence {Xt} the timing diagram, Figure 2 is a sequence {Yt} of the timing diagram. Two figures show both the total population (end) or universal life energy consumption (kg of standard coal) index showed a rising trend, the total population of the annual data series {Xt} and national annual energy consumption data sequence {Yt} not smooth, the two may have long-term cointegration relationship.

2. Data smoothing (1)Sequence Logarithm Figures 1 and 2 by the intuitive discovery data sequence {Xt} and {Yt} showed a significant growth trend, a significant non-stationary sequence. Therefore, the total population of first sequence {Xt} and universal life energy consumption (kg of standard coal) {Yt}, respectively for the number of treatment to eliminate heteroscedasticity. That logx = lnXt, logy = lnYt, with a view to the target sequence into the linear trend trend sequence, by EVIEWS software operations, the number of sequence timing diagram, in which the population sequence {logx} timing diagram shown in Figure 3, the full sequence of energy consumption {logy} timing diagram shown in Figure 4. Figure3 Figure 4 Figure 3 shows the total population observed sequence {logx} and universal life energy consumption (kg of standard coal) sequence {logy} index trend has been basically eliminated, the two have obvious long-term cointegration relationship, which is the transfer function modeling an important prerequisite. However, the above sequence of numbers is still non-stationary series. Respectively {logx} and {logy} sequence of ADF unit root test (Table 5 and Table 6), the test results as shown below. (2)Unit root test Here we will be on the province's total population and the whole sequence {Xt} energy consumption (kg of standard coal) sequence data {Yt} be the unit root test, the results obtained by Eviews software operation is as follows: Table 2 Of the total population sequence {logx}