ch15宏观经济学

*CHAPTER 15(Core Chapter)FLEXIBLE VERSUS FIXED EXCHANGE RATES,EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY COORDINATIONOUTLINE15.1Introduction15.2Fixed Versus Flexible Rates: An Overview15.3The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates15.4The Case for Fixed Exchange RatesCase Study 15-1 Macroeconomic Performance under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes 15.5Optimum Currency Areas15.6European Monetary System and Transition to Monetary UnionCase Study 15-2 Maastricht Convergence Indicators15.7The Creation of the Euro, the European Central Bank, and the Common Monetary PolicyCase Study 15-3 Benefits and Costs of the Euro15.8Currency Board Arrangements and DollarizationCase Study 15-4 Argentina’s Currency Board Arrangements and Crisis15.9 Adjustable Pegs, Crawling Pegs, and Managed FloatingCase Study 15-5 Exchange Rate Arrangements of IMF Members15.10 International Macroeconomic Policy CoordinationKEY TERMSFreely floating exchange rate system or clean float Optimum currency area or bloc European Monetary System (EMS) European Currency Unit (ECU) Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) European Monetary Institute (EMI) European Monetary Cooperation Fund (EMCF) Maastricht TreatyGrowth and Stability Pact (GSP) European Monetary Union (EMU) Currency board arrangements (CBAs) European Central Bank (ECB) Adjustable peg system DollarizationManaged floating exchange rate system (dirty float) Crawling peg systemInternational macroeconomic policy coordination EuroLECTURE GUIDE1. This chapter brings together, for the most part, material scattered throughout previouschapters on the question of fixed versus flexible exchange rates. But it also examines the European Monetary System, currency board arrangements, dollarization, and international macroeconomic cooperation. It is an important chapter but if time is short , I would omit it, except for sections 15.7 to 15.10.2. If I were to cover the entire chapter, I would cover sections 1 to 4 in the first lecture, section 5to 7 in the second lecture, and sections 8-10 in the third lecture.ANSWERS TO REVIEW QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS1. a. The advantages of a fixed exchange rate system are lower uncertainty, the belief thatspeculation is more likely to be stabilizing, and being less inflationary. Advocates offlexible exchange rates disagree. They point out that destabilizing speculation is lesslikely to occur when exchange rates adjust continuously than when they are preventedfrom doing so until a large discrete adjustment can no longer be avoided. They do admit, however, that flexible exchange rates are more likely to be inflationary and to lead togreater exchange rate volatility.b. Whether flexible or fixed exchange rates are better depends, to a large extent, on thenation involved and the conditions under which it operates. In general, a fixed exchange rate is preferable if disturbances are predominantly monetary (such as inflation), while a flexible exchange rate is preferable if disturbances are predominantly real (such as achange in technology) and originate abroad.2. See the figure below.3. a. An optimum currency area involves permanently fixed exchange rates as well ascommon monetary and fiscal policies among its members. There are no such implications for countries which are connected only by fixed exchange rates.b. The main advantages of an optimum currency area for a nation are greater pricestability and thus stimulating the specialization in production and the flow of trade andinvestments among member nations. An optimum currency area also encouragesproducers to view the entire area as a single market and to benefit from greatereconomies of scale in production.c. The requirements for a well-functioning optimum currency area are a great deal oflabor mobility, structural similarities, and willingness to closely coordinate their fiscaland other policies.4.The benefits on EMU countries from the adoption of the euro are: (1) elimination of theneed to exchange currencies among euro-area members; (2) elimination of exchange rate volatility among the currencies of participating countries; (3) more rapid economic andfinancial integration of participating nations; (4) participation in determining EMU’smonetary policy; (5) greater economic and budgetary discipline; (6) seignorage from the use of the euro; (7) reduced cost of borrowing in international financial markets; and (8) increased economic and political importance in international affairs. The most seriousproblem created by the adoption of the euro for the participating countries arises frombeing unable to conduct an independent monetary policy.5. a. Under a fixed exchange rate system, the nation fixes the exchange rate and intervenesin the foreign exchange market to keep the exchange rate within narrowly defined limits.b. Under a currency board arrangement, the nation rigidly fixes the exchange rate and itscentral bank loses its ability of conducting an independent monetary policy by allowing the nation’s supply to increase or decrease only in response to balance-of-paymentssurpluses or deficits.c. With dollarization the nation adopts another nation’s currency as its legal tender.6. Under a crawling peg system, nations change their exchange rates by small amounts atfrequent specified intervals. This avoids destabilizing speculation that often arises under an adjustable peg system where nations change their exchange rates reluctantly and only when forced by market conditions, thus generating destabilizing speculation.7. a. Under a managed exchange rate system or dirty floating, monetary authoritiesintervene in foreign exchange markets to smooth out excessive exchange rate volatility.b. The policy of leaning against the wind operates by a nation’s monetary authoritiesselling the foreign currency on the foreign exchange market to reduce the depreciation of the national currency and purchasing the foreign currency to reduce the appreciation ofthe national currency.c. The major advantage of a managed floating exchange rate system with respect to afreely floating exchange rate is that it limits exchange rate volatility. The main advantage with respect to a fixed exchange rate system is that it corrects a balance of paymentsdisequilibrium by exchange rate changes rather than requiring changes in all internalprices in the nation.8. A flexible exchange rate does tend to insulate the economy from international disturbances.For example, the tendency of a nation to follow inflationary policies will result in adepreciation of its currency. This means that the trade partner's currency will appreciate, making its imports more expensive, thus preventing the importation of inflation fromabroad.In an integrated world capital market, however, inflationary policies by one nation willlower its interest rates and lead to capital outflows. Unless the trade partner is able tocontinuously sterilize its capital inflows, inflationary pressures will spread to it also.These inflationary pressures can be avoided by international policy coordination. Thus,international policy coordination is useful also under a flexible exchange rate systembecause in a world of unrestricted international capital flows flexible exchange rate do not insulate nations completely from their partner's policies.9. In a non-cooperative equilibrium, each nation is likely to follow a loose fiscal policy buta tight monetary policy in order to keep its interest rates up (thereby attracting foreigncapital and keeping the international value of its currency high and import prices low).However, when all nations do this their efforts will be self-defeating and interest rateswill be higher than with a cooperative equilibrium. High interest rates will reduce long-term growth for all nations. With a cooperative equilibrium, on the other hand, nationswill use restrictive fiscal and easy monetary policies. This will keep interest rates low and stimulate long-run growth.10. a. International macroeconomic policy coordination among the leading industrialcountries is useful because it allows the adoption of some beneficial policies that a nation would not undertake alone. For example, with a worldwide recession, each nation mayhesitate to stimulate its economy to avoid a deterioration of its trade balance. Through a coordinated simultaneous expansion of all nations, however, output and employment can increase in all nations without any of them suffering deterioration in its trade balance.b. International macroeconomic policy coordination to date has been episodic and limited inscope and it is unlikely that it will be very different in the future.SAMPLE TEST QUESTIONS1. An alleged advantage of flexible over fixed exchange rates is:a. market efficiencyb. stabilizing speculationc. price disciplined. all of the above2. Flexible exchange rates:a. enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policyb. reduce the effectiveness of fiscal policyc. enhance the effectiveness of monetary policyd. reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy3. Everything else being the same, the volume of trade is likely to be:a. larger under a flexible than under a fixed exchange rate systemb. larger under a fixed than under a flexible exchange rate systemc. equal under a flexible and fixed exchange rate systemd. any of the above4. Most economists believe that under "normal conditions" speculation:a. is stabilizingb. is destabilizingc. is neither stabilizing nor destabilizingd. seldom occurs5. Price discipline is:a. greater under a fixed than under a flexible exchange rate systemb. greater under a flexible than under a fixed exchange rate systemc. about the same under a fixed as under a flexible exchange rate systemd. is unrelated to the type of exchange rate system6. Which of the following statements is correct with respect to flexible exchange rates?a. they insulate the domestic economy from external shocks more than fixed exchange ratesb. they are particularly attractive to nations subject to large external shocksc. they provide less stability to an open economy subject to large internal shocksd. all of the above7. The formation of an optimum currency area is more likely to be beneficial:a. the smaller is the mobility of resource among the various nations of the optimum currencyareab. the smaller are the structural similarities of member nationsc. the more willing are member nations to closely coordinate their economic policiesd. all of the above8. The European Monetary System is or resembles a:a. fixed exchange rate systemb. a managed exchange rate systemc. a crawling peg systemd. a freely flexible exchange rate system9. The European Monetary Union:a. has a common currencyb. has a single central bankc. conducts a common monetary policyd. all of the above10. The exchange rate system where a nation rigidly fixes the exchange rate of its currency to that ofa trade partner and the nation gives up control over its money supply is called:a. adjustable pegb. currency board arrangementc. monetary uniond. dollarization11. If the band of allowed fluctuation under a fixed exchange rate system is made very wide, thesystem will resemble:a. a flexible exchange rate systemb. the gold standardc. an adjustable pegd. a crawling peg12. A fixed exchange rate system without a band of allowed fluctuation would require the nation'smonetary authorities to intervene in the foreign exchange market:a. neverb. seldomc. constantlyd. we cannot say13. The policy of changing par values by small pre-announced amounts at frequent intervals until theequilibrium exchange rate is reached is called:a. crawling pegb. adjustable pegc. managed floatd. dirty float14. The policy of intervention in the foreign exchange market to smooth out short-run fluctuations inexchange rates is called:a. crawling pegb. adjustable pegc. leaning against the windd. managed float15. International macroeconomic policy coordination has become more useful and essential in recentdecades because:a. the interdependence among countries has increasedb. the volume of trade has grown more rapidly than GNPc. of the large increase in international capital flowsd. all of the above。

《高级宏观经济学》教学大纲（硕士研究生） - RonaldoCarpio《高级微观经济分析》教学大纲(博士研究生)课程代码:(按本专业或方向培养方案填写)课程名称:(按本专业或方向培养方案填写)英文名称:Advanced Microeconomic Analysis课程性质:(按本专业或方向培养方案填写)学分学时:3学分，48学时授课对象:金融学院一年级博士研究生课程简介:Based on Microeconomics I (for master students), the course will discuss thecontemporary development in microeconomics. This course is also designed to develop andextend the students’ analytical and reading skills in modern microeconomics. A student who haspassed the course should be able to read typical articles in the mainline journals, understand theanalytical derivations and arguments commonly used in the literature, and know how to solve themore widely used models.先修课程:Microeconomics for master students选用教材:1、 Mas-Colell, A., M. D. Whinston, and J. Green, Microeconomic Theory. (MWG)2、 Jehle, Geoffrey A. and Philip J. Reny, Advanced Microeconomic Theory. (JR)考核方式与成绩评定:Final Exam %; Midterm Exam %; Class Participation % 主讲教师:Carpio Ronaldo、颜建晔所属院系:金融学院联系方式:******************、*******************答疑时间及地点:求索楼123,Wednesday 13:30-14:30 (Carpio)，Tuesday 15:00-17:00(颜)第一章:Consumer Theory教学目标和要求:Understand the consumer’s problem and consumer demand.教学时数:6学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:calculus教学内容:Preferences, Utility, and Consumer’s Problem第一节:Consumer’s Problem第二节:Indirect Utility, Demand作业与思考题:JR Ch 1.6参考资料:JR Ch 1, Appendix A1, A21第二章: Topics in Consumer Theory教学目标和要求:Understand duality, integrability, and uncertainty.教学时数:6 学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:statistics教学内容:Duality, Integrability, and Uncertainty 第一节:Duality of Consumer’s Problem第二节:Revealed Preferences & Uncertainty 作业与思考题:JR Ch 2.5 参考资料:JR Ch 2第三章: Theory of the Firm教学目标和要求:Understand the firm’s profit maximization problem.教学时数:6 学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:Chapter 1,2教学内容:Production, Cost, Profit Maximization 第一节:Production Functions & Cost第二节:Duality in Production, Competitive Firms 作业与思考题:JR Ch 3.6参考资料:JR Ch 3第四章: Partial Equilibrium教学目标和要求:Understand partial equilibrium markets. 教学时数:3学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:Chapter 3教学内容:Perfect & Imperfect Competition, Welfare 第一节:Competition 第二节:Equilibrium & Welfare作业与思考题:JR Ch 4.4参考资料:JR Ch 4第五章: Walras’/competitive equilibrium2教学目标和要求:competitive market economies from a Walrasian (general) equilibrium perspective.Let students understand “why the competitive market/equilibrium may work or fail?”教学时数:6学时方式:讲授教学准备知识:consumer theory, production theory教学内容:第一节:Walrasian economy and mathematical language of microeconomics 第二节:competitive equilibria of pure exchange and with production 作业与思考题:JR5.5, exercises of MWG Ch15, 18, 教师自编习题集参考资料:MWG Mathematical Appendix, Ch15, 18; JR5.4第六章: Social choice function/theory and social welfare: normative aspect of microeconomics教学目标和要求:When we judge some situation, such as a market equilibrium, as “good”or “bad”, or “better” or “worse” than another, we necessarily make at least implicit appeal to some underlying ethical standard. Welfare economics helps to inform the debate on social issues by forcingus to confront the ethical premises underlying our arguments as well as helping us to seetheir logical implications.Let students have a systematic framework for thinking about normative and social welfare topics.教学时数:3学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:Walrasian equilibrium教学内容:第一节:social choice, comparability, and some possibilities第二节:Rawlsian, Utiliterian, and flexible forms作业与思考题:JR6.5, exercises of MWG Ch21, 22, 教师自编习题集参考资料:MWG Ch21.A, Ch21.E, Ch22.C; JR Ch6第七章: Strategic Behavior and Asymmetric Information教学目标和要求:A central feature of contemporary microeconomicsafter Walrasian economy is the multi-agent interaction which represents the potential for the presence of strategicinterdependence. Let students grasp classic models of imperfect competition under symmetric and asymmetric information.3教学时数:3学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:perfect competition教学内容:第一节:monopoly and oligopoly under symmetric information第二节:oligopoly under asymmetric information作业与思考题:教师自编习题集参考资料:MWG Ch12; JR Ch4第八章: Theory of Incentives教学目标和要求:The strategic opportunities that arise in the presence of asymmetricinformation typically lead to inefficient market outcomes, a form of market failure. Underasymmetric information, the first welfare theorem no longer holds generally. Thus, the main themeto be explored is to stimulate different agents’ optimal/efficient behaviors in differentinformational settings to achieve the “second-best” market outcomes.教学时数:9学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:Strategic Behavior and Asymmetric Information教学内容:第一节:Adverse selection第二节:Moral hazard*第三节:Task separation/integration,第三节:Career concern作业与思考题:exercises of MWG Ch13, 14, 教师自编习题集参考资料:JR Ch8; MWG Ch13, 14第九章前沿研究讲座:待定邀请校外老师(待定)给学生们讲演最新研究，引导学生讨论;在学生掌握现代微观经济学基本模型之后能够接触到前沿研究。

第15-16章财政政策与货币政策一．单项选择1．d； 2．d； 3．d； 4．b； 5．c； 6．a； 7．b； 8．a； 9．d；10．a； 11．c； 12．d； 13．b； 14．b； 15．a； 16．d； 17．a； 18．c；19．d； 20．b； 21．b； 22．a； 23．c； 24．c； 25．b； 26．b； 27．b；28．a； 29．a； 30．c； 31．b； 32．d； 33．b； 34．c； 35．c；36．c； 37．a； 38．a； 39．b； 40．b； 41．c； 42．a； 43．a； 44．b；45．c； 46．a ； 47．a； 48．d； 49．c； 50．d。

二．多项选择1．abcd； 2．cd； 3．ab； 4．cd； 5．bcd； 6．bcd； 7．ac； 8．abc；9．ab； 10．acd； 11．bcd； 12．abd； 13．ad； 14．bd； 15．abcd；16．bcd； 17．ad； 18．ab。

三、名词解释1．财政政策是指为促进就业水平提高，减轻经济波动，防止通货膨胀，实现稳定增长而对政府支出、税收和借债水平所进行的选择，或对政府收入和支出水平所作出的决策。

2．功能财政是指政府在财政方面的积极政策主要是为实现无通货膨胀的充分就业水平的产出和收入而努力，为实现这一目标时，预算可以是盈余，也可以是赤字。

3．补偿性财政政策是指根据经济的萧条和繁荣状况交替使用扩张性和紧缩性财政政策。

4．自动稳定器是指经济系统本身存在的一种会减少各种干扰对国民收入冲击的机制，能够在经济繁荣时期自动抑制膨胀，在经济萧条时期自动减轻衰退，毋须政府采取任何行动。

5．挤出效应是指政府支出增加所引起的私人消费或投资降低的作用。

6．拉弗曲线是指描绘税收与税率关系的曲线。

一般情况下，税率越高，政府的税收就越多。

但税率的提高超过一定的限度时，企业的投资减少，收入减少，即税基减小，反而导致政府的税收减少。

宏观经济学1.什么是宏观经济学？宏观经济学又称总体经济学、大经济学。

是微观经济学的对称。

宏观经济学是现代经济学的一个分支。

宏观经济学以整个国民经济为考察对象，研究经济中各有关总量的决定及其变动，以解决失业、通货膨胀、经济波动、国际收支等问题，实现长期稳定的发展。

2.宏观经济学的内容宏观经济学包括宏观经济理论、宏观经济政策和宏观经济计量模型。

1）宏观经济理论包括：国民收入决定理论、消费函数理论、投资理论、货币理论、失业与通货膨胀理论、经济周期理论、经济增长理论、开发经济理论。

2）宏观经济政策包括：经济政策目标、经济政策工具、经济政策机制（即经济政策工具如何达到既定的目标）、经济政策效应与运用。

3）宏观经济计量模型包括根据各派理论所建立的不同模型。

这些模型可用于理论验证、经济预测、政策制定，以及政策效应检验。

以上三个部分共同构成了现代宏观经济学。

现代宏观经济学是为国家干预经济的政策服务的。

战后凯恩斯主义宏观经济政策在西方各国得到广泛的运用，相当大程度上促进了经济的发展，但是，国家对经济的干预也引起了各种问题。

其具体内容主要包括经济增长、经济周期波动、失业、通货膨胀、国家财政、国际贸易等方面.涉及国民收入及全社会消费、储蓄、投资及国民收入的比率，货币流通量和流通速度，物价水平，利息率，人口数量及增长率，就业人数和失业率，国家预算和赤字，出入口贸易和国际收入差额等。

3.宏观经济学的产生与发展宏观经济学来源于法国魁奈的《经济表》和英国马尔萨斯的“马尔萨斯人口论”。

1933年，挪威经济学家弗瑞希提出《宏观经济学》的概念。

现代宏观经济学在凯恩斯的《就业、利息和货币通论》（1936）出版后迅速发展起来。

凯恩斯把国民收入和就业人数联系作为中心进行了综合分析。

宏观经济学的产生与发展，迄今为止大体上经历了四个阶段：第一阶段：17世纪中期到19世纪中期，是早期宏观经济学阶段,•或称古典宏观经济学阶段。

第二阶段：19世纪后期到20世纪30年代，是现代宏观经济学的奠基阶段。