Exam C

Construction and Evaluation of Actuarial Models ExamThe Construction and Evaluation of Actuarial Models exam is called Exam C by the SOA and Exam 4 by the CAS. This three-and-a-half hour exam consists of 35 multiple-choice questions. The examination is jointly sponsored and administered by the SOA, CAS, and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA). The examination is also jointly sponsored by the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA) and the Conference of Consulting Actuaries (CCA).The Construction and Evaluation of Actuarial Models Exam is administered as a computer-based test. For additional details, please refer to Exam Rules. The syllabus for this examination provides an introduction to modeling and covers important actuarial methods that are useful in modeling. A thorough knowledge of calculus, probability, and mathematical statistics is assumed.The candidate will be introduced to a variety of useful frequency and severity models. The candidate will be required to understand the steps involved in the modeling process and how to carry out these steps in solving business problems. The candidate should be able to: 1) analyze data from an application in a business context; 2) determine a suitable model including parameter values; and 3) provide measures of confidence for decisions based upon the model. The candidate will be introduced to a variety of tools for the calibration and evaluation of the models.A variety of tables is available below for the candidate and will be provided to the candidate at the examination. These include values for the standard normal distribution, chi-square distribution, and abridged inventories of discrete and continuous probability distributions. Candidates will not be allowed to bring copies of the tables into the examination room. A preview of the CBT layout of the Exam C/4 tables in HTML is available online since the tables have been divided into five sections for viewing purposes.Check the Updates section on this exam's home page for any changes to the exam or syllabus. In the learning outcomes, weights have been provided to indicate the relative emphasis on different sections. The ranges of weights shown are intended to apply to the large majority of exams administered. On occasion, the weights of topics on an individual exam may fall outside the published range. Candidates should also recognize that some questions may cover multiple learning outcomes.Each multiple-choice problem includes five answer choices identified by the letters A, B, C, D, and E, only one of which is correct. Candidates must indicate responses to each question on the computer.As part of the computer-based testing process, a few pilot questions will be randomly placed in the exam (paper and pencil and computer-based forms). These pilot questions are included to judge their effectiveness for future exams, but they will NOT be used in the scoring of this exam.1 All other questions will be considered in the scoring. All unanswered questions are scored incorrect. Therefore, candidates should answer every question on the exam. There is no set requirement for the distribution of correct answers for the SOA/CAS/CIA multiple-choice preliminary examinations. It is possible that a particular answer choice could appear many times on an examination or not at all. Candidates are advised to answer each question to the best of their ability, independently from how they have answered other questions on the examination.Because the CBT exam will be offered over a period of a few days, each candidate will receive a test form composed of questions selected from a pool of questions. Statistical scaling methods are used to ensure within reasonable and practical limits that, during the same testing period of a few days, all forms of the test are comparable in content and passing criteria. The methodology that has been adopted is used by many credentialing programs that give multiple forms of an exam.LEARNING OUTCOMESThe candidate is expected to be familiar with survival, severity, frequency and aggregate models, and use statistical methods to estimate parameters of such models given sample data. The candidate is further expected to identify steps in the modeling process, understand the underlying assumptions implicit in each family of models, recognize which assumptions are applicable in a given business application, and appropriately adjust the models for impact of insurance coverage modifications.Specifically, the candidate is expected to be able to perform the tasks listed below. Items in italic font are additions or replacements with respect to the June 2013 syllabus.Sections A–E have a combined weight of 15-20%.A. Severity Models1. Calculate the basic distributional quantities:a) momentsb) Percentilesc) Generating functions2. Describe how changes in parameters affect the distribution.3. Recognize classes of distributions and their relationships.4. Apply the following techniques for creating new families of distributions:a) Multiplication by a constant1 Beginning with the October 2013 examination there are some revised learning objectives and readings. Items covering them may appear as scored or pilot items in the same manner as items on continuing topics.b) Raising to a powerc) Exponentiation,d) Mixing5. Identify the applications in which each distribution is used and reasons why.6. Apply the distribution to an application, given the parameters.7. Calculate various measures of tail weight and interpret the results to compare the tailweights.8. Identify and describe two extreme value distributions.B. Frequency ModelsFor the Poisson, Mixed Poisson, Binomial, Negative Binomial, Geometric distribution and mixtures thereof:1. Describe how changes in parameters affect the distribution,2. Calculate moments,3. Identify the applications for which each distribution is used and reasons why,4. Apply the distribution to an application given the parameters.5. Apply the zero-truncated or zero-modified distribution to an application given theparametersC. Aggregate Models1. Compute relevant parameters and statistics for collective risk models.2. Evaluate compound models for aggregate claims.3. Compute aggregate claims distributions.D. For severity, frequency and aggregate models1. Evaluate the impacts of coverage modifications:a) Deductiblesb) Limitsc) Coinsurance2. Calculate Loss Elimination Ratios.3. Evaluate effects of inflation on losses.E. Risk Measures1. Calculate VaR, and TVaR and explain their use and limitations.Sections F and G have a combined weight of 20-25%.F. Construction of Empirical Models1. Estimate failure time and loss distributions using:a) Kaplan-Meier estimatorb) Nelson-Åalen estimatorc) Kernel density estimators2. Estimate the variance of estimators and confidence intervals for failure time and lossdistributions.3. Apply the following concepts in estimating failure time and loss distribution:a) Unbiasednessb) Consistencyc) Mean squared errorG. Estimation of decrement probabilities from large samples1. Estimate decrement probabilities using both parametric and nonparametric approachesfor both individual and interval data2. Approximate the variance of the estimatorsH. Construction and Selection of Parametric Models (25-30%)1. Estimate the parameters of failure time and loss distributions using:a) Maximum likelihoodb) Method of momentsc) Percentile matchingd) Bayesian procedures2. Estimate the parameters of failure time and loss distributions with censored and/ortruncated data using maximum likelihood.3. Estimate the variance of estimators and the confidence intervals for the parameters andfunctions of parameters of failure time and loss distributions.4. Apply the following concepts in estimating failure time and loss distributions:a) Unbiasednessb) Asymptotic unbiasednessc) Consistencyd) Mean squared errore) Uniform minimum variance estimator5. Determine the acceptability of a fitted model and/or compare models using:a) Graphical proceduresb) Kolmogorov-Smirnov testc) Anderson-Darling testd) Chi-square goodness-of-fit teste) Likelihood ratio testf) Schwarz Bayesian CriterionI. Credibility (20-25%)1. Apply limited fluctuation (classical) credibility including criteria for both full and partialcredibility.2. Perform Bayesian analysis using both discrete and continuous models.3. Apply Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub models and understand the relationship of theseto the Bayesian model.4. Apply conjugate priors in Bayesian analysis and in particular the Poisson-gamma model.5. Apply empirical Bayesian methods in the nonparametric and semiparametric cases. J. Simulation (5-10%)1. Simulate both discrete and continuous random variables using the inversion method.2. Simulate from discrete mixtures, decrement tables, the (a,b,0) class, and the normal andlognormal distributions using methods designed for those distributions3. Estimate the number of simulations needed to obtain an estimate with a given error anda given degree of confidence.4. Use simulation to determine the p-value for a hypothesis test.5. Use the bootstrap method to estimate the mean squared error of an estimator.6. Apply simulation methods within the context of actuarial models.Reading Selections for learning outcomes A through H and J:Text• Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, (Fourth Edition), 2012, by Klugman, S.A., Panjer,H.H. and Willmot, G.E.Chapter 3Chapter 4Chapter 5Chapter 6Chapter 8Chapter 9, Sections 9.1–9.7 (excluding 9.6.1), Sections 9.8.1–9.8.2Chapter 10Chapter 11Chapter 12Chapter 13Chapter 14, Sections 14.1 – 14.4 and 14.6Chapter 15Chapter 16Chapter 20Reading Options for learning outcome I (Credibility) will be:Option ACandidates may prepare for this exam using either the Third or Fourth Editions.• Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, (Fourth Edition), 2012, by Klugman, S.A., Panjer,H.H., and Willmot, G.E.Chapter 17, Sections 17.2 – 17.7Chapter 18Chapter 19Option B•Foundations of Casualty Actuarial Science (Fourth Edition), 2001, Casualty Actuarial SocietyChapter 8, Section 1 (background only) Sections 2–5•Topics in Credibility by Dean, C.G.Option C• Introduction to Credibility Theory (Fourth Edition), 2010, Herzog, T.N.Chapters 1-3 (background only)Chapters 4–8Chapter 9 (background only)Other ResourcesTables for Exam C/Exam 4Preview of the CBT layout of the Exam C/4 tables in HTMLAll released exam papers since 2000, can be found at:Past Exam Questions and SolutionsExam C/4 Sample Questions and Solutions. These documents will be updated to reflect the October 2013 syllabus changes. The cover page of each document will indicate any updates that have been made.。

第 1 页 共 3 页基础模块上册unit8英语试题I. 找出划线部分发音不同的选项。

(共15分，每小题1分)1．A. brave B. cake C. place D. challenge 2. A. driver B. remind C. high D. since3. A. student B. success C. education D. computer4. A. overcome B. boss C. noise D. wrong5. A. brave B. education C. finally D. place6. A. overcome B. independence C. difficulty D. expect7. A. machine B. wheelchair C. challenge D. catch8. A. experience B. question C. independence D. perfect9. A. success B. easy C. scientist D. else 10. A. really B. clear C. idea D. break 11. A. high B. accident C. remind D. driver 12. A. wrong B. wheelchair C. where D. with 13. A. fix B. exam C. excuse D. mix14. A. success B. difficulty C. education D. surprise 15. A. finish B. finally C. since D. active II. 单项选择题.(每小题1分，共30个)16.—— Is there anything wrong with my heart ？ ——Nothing serious. .A. Take it easyB. Cheer up C .No way D. What a pity 17. The story reminds me my past. A. with B. ofC. forD. on 18.How it in English.A. you sayB. do you speakC. do you sayD. you speak 19. He made up his mind to smoking. A. give away B. give in C. give up D. give20. Some girls help ________ the rooms clean.A. do B to clean C. to do D to keep 21. afraid of make mistakes.A. Don ’tB. Not to beC. Not beingD. Be not22. After they had read the text ，the students the exercises. A. to on to do B . went on doing C. went on to do D . go on doing23. The mother _______ the room the child fell asleep.A. didn ’t leave, whenB. not leave, until C .left, until D didn ’t leave, until 24. I __________ my key to my bedroom yesterday. A lose B lost C have lost D was losing 25. Our teacher asked us______ our bedroom clean.A keep onB keepC to keepD to keep on 26. Tom ______like reading at all. He interested in playing basketball. A. doesn ’t , is B. doesn ’t, were C. is, does D. was,is 27. I don ’t you.A agree toB agree onC agree withD agree that 28. He is very active answering the teacher's question. A. in B. on C. of D.off29. more children in the countryside are of school.. A. of B. out C. in D. off30. We have learned in this school ________half past year. A in B for C since D on31.They got married in 1998. _______then they have been living inLondon.A sinceB forC asD with 32.John ’s father is fixing his chair______a hammer. A at B with C at D about 33.The old book ________me ________my grandfather. A reminded of B remember of C reminded with D remember at34.It ’s a great ________that she has finished all the courses at thecollege.A challengingB challengeC successD successful 35.We often have an English party ________Saturday evenings. A before B at C in D on 36.I don ’t know ________he will come on time or not.A whenB whereC whatD whether 37. Please ______ me for coming so late .A forgiveB forgaveC forgetD forgot 38.Please _______here, the baby is sleeping.A not shoutB not speakC speakD don ’t shout 39. We eleven classes every day.. A. have B . has第 2 页 共 3 页C. will have D . is having 40. Zhang Li ______at 6 every day.A get upB got upC gets upD will get up41.There ____ an apple and ten bananas in the basket.You can take any of them.A. areB. isC. hasD. Have42. ----There is no air or water on the moon. Is there? ---- ________.A. Yes, there areB. No, there isn'tC. Yes, there isn'tD. No, there is 43.______bed is very clean. ______is clean ，too. A. His , Mine B. My , Him C. His , Me D. Him , My 44.I shopping tomorrowA. goesB. will goC. goD. is going 45. you be at home at seven this evening. A. will B.Does C. Will D. Do III. 完形填空（每一空1分，共10分）It is often said that eyes can speak.Do you have such kind of __21__？In a bus you may look at a stranger ，but not too __22__．If he notices that he is being looked at ，he may __23__ uncomfortable.It is the same in daily life.When you are looked at for several more times ，you will look __24__ up and down in order to __25__ if there is anything wrong with you.If __26__ goes wrong ，you will feel angry with the person who is looking at you.__27__ can speak ，right?Looking too long at someone may seem to be impolite.But sometimes things are __28__．If you wish to draw someone's __29__，you may look at him or her for more than ten seconds.For lovers ，they enjoy looking at each other longer to show the love that words cannot __30__．Clearly ，eye communication should be done according to the relationship between the two people and the certain situation.46．A.future B ．fear C ．experience D ．exercise 47．te B ．long C ．low D ．loud 48．A.feel B ．smell C ．sound D ．taste49．A.itself B ．himself C ．myself D ．yourself 50．A.see B ．guess C ．hear D ．expect51．A.something B ．nothing C ．everything D ．anything 52．A.Ears B ．Eyes C ．Mouth D ．Nose53．A.different B ．difficult C ．tiring D ．boring54．A.direction B ．lesson C ．attention D ．trouble 55．A.write B ．print C ．read D ．express IV.阅读理解（每一空2分，共30分）（A ）When I was in seventh grade, I was shy, quiet and so was easily bullied(受欺负). I used to get very sad about it.In an art lesson, just while the teacher was out, a big boy took away my pencil case, threw it across the room and sat back down. Later on, he took my schoolbag and pulled it towards him. I pulled back the schoolbag from his hand and for the first time, I pushed him away and hit him on the back. In the rest of the lesson, I did nothing but imagined what was happening next.Then the teacher came to me,“Peter, are you OK?” “Yes,” I answered.“No, you are not. Come to my office after class.” he said. There we had a long talk. He made me smile and I became confident(自信) again. He taught me some life lessons, and said, “Get up, and don ’t be a bully yourself, but remember you are stronger inside, and if the bullies see this, they will stop.”I remembered these words. From then on, every time as I walked to school, I put my head high in the way, and the bullying soon stopped. 56. Why was Peter often bullied in seventh grade?A. he had no friends to help himB. he didn ’t study wellC. he came from a poor familyD. he was quiet and not confident 57. What happened to Peter in an art lesson? A. He took away the other ’s pencil case. B. He made fun of another student.C. He fought back for the first time.D. He told the secret to the teacher.58. How did Peter feel after it happened?A. Lucky.B. Worried.C. Excited.D. Confident. 59. Where did Peter have a long talk with his teacher? A. In the classroom. B. At the teacher ’s house. C. At Peter ’s home. D. In the office. 60. The teacher told Peter he should _____.A. believe in himselfB. work hard on his lessonsC. have stronger bodyD. tell it to the teacher at once（B ）When the man ’s wife died, their youngest baby was 2 years old.第 3 页 共 3 页They had six other children – three boys and three girls, aged from 4 to 16.The man ’s parents and his wife ’s parents came to visit them. “We ’ve been talking about how to make this work,” they said. “There ’s no way you can take care of all these children and work to make a living. So, we ’ve decided to place each child with a different uncle and aunt.”The man refused. Over the next few weeks, he moved the family to a tiny town and his business developed quickly. People came from far away to do business with him. And the children helped him both at home and at work.The children grew up and got married. Five of the seven went off to college. The children ’s success was a source of pride to the father. Finally, the youngest daughter, who was 2 years old when the mother died, got married. With his life ’s work done, the father died. This man ’s work had been the lonely but joyful task of raising his family. This man was my father. I was the 16-year-old, the oldest of seven.66. There were ______ children in the man ’s family. A. five B. six C. seven D. eight67. The man ’s parents and his wife ’s parents came to his house to ______.A. suggest raising his children in different familyB. talk about finding a new wife for himC. give him money to support the familyD. help take good care of his children63. What does the underlined word “refuse ” mean? A. 感激 B. 拒绝 C. 悲伤 D. 放弃 64. Which of the following is TRUE?A. Nearly half of the man ’s children went to college.B. The man wanted to give his children to their uncle.C. The man moved his family and opened a business.D. The man thought life was hopeless after his wife died. 65. The story mainly talks about ______.A. why the father didn ’t give up his familyB. how the children succeeded after their mother diedC. why the father was lonelyD. how the father raised his large family（C ）In a small village there lived a lazy man. He would do nothing all day but daydream. Whenever he was hungry, he would go out, ask for food, come back and hang out.One sunny afternoon, he was very hungry. With great difficulty, he got a pot of milk from one of his neighbors. He took this pot and started daydreaming again. “It is this pot of milk that is going to make me rich,” he thought. “I can make butter from the milk. Then I go to the market and sell it,” his dream went on. “With the money I get, I will buy a couple of goats. They will have kids after six months. Soon I would have a large number of goats.”“Then I will buy some more cows and have a farmhouse. I will start a dairy farm (奶牛场). …” the man kept smiling to himself. “How smart I am,”he thought. Lost in his minds, his pot fell down, and drenched himself in milk.66. We know the fact that the man had trouble in _____. A. having friends B. finding a job C. making dreams D. getting food67. What did the man do after he got the pot of milk? A. He made his daydream. B. He sold it for money. C. He drank it. D. He dropped it.68. What does the underlined word “drench ” mean in Chinese?A. 满足B. 丢失C. 溅湿D. 生产 69. What do you think of the man?A. Lazy.B. Poor.C. Happy.D. Smart. 70. We can infer(推断出) from the story that the man _____. A. became rich in the end B. did nothing C. owned a big farm D. raised lots of goats V.作文: (共计15分) Write a letter to your friend, telling him or her your idea about life .（要求：注意书信的格式，80词左右）。

Post-listening
1e Prepare a speech for your graduation. Use the questions to help you. Present your speech to your group. How to write a speech? Let’s watch a video!
Post-listening
1e Prepare a speech for your graduation. Use the questions to help you. Present your speech to your group.
Beginning Thanks Ending
How have you changed since you started junior high school? Who has helped you most? What advice have your parents given you? What will you do after you graduate? What are you looking forward to?
04
Post-listening
Post-listening
Fill in the blank according to the listening material.
Today is the （1）_s_t_u_d_e_n_t_s_(student) last class . Bob thinks Mrs. Chen’s classes have been great and Mrs. Chen is glad （2）_to__h_e_a_r__(hear) that. Mrs. Chen thinks the future （3） _w__il_l_b_e__e_x_c_i_ti_n_g_(exciting). The students talk about what they want to do in the future. Bob hopes（4）_to__p_a_s_s__(pass) the exam to get into senior high school. Shirley wants （5） _t_o__g_e_t_ (get) into a music school. Ken is good at science and he （6）_w_o_n__(win) a prize for it last year. So he wants to be （7）a__n__astronaut. Anna is going to improve English(8)_s_o__th__a_t_ she can teach kids English in the future. Mrs. Chen believes in all of them. To celebrate the (9）_e_n_d___(末尾）of junior high , they are having a party. They ask Mrs. Chen to come, and she is happy to accept the（10）_i_n_v_i_t_a_ti_o_n___(invite).

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3.使用 objdump 反汇编出所有的信息 查看： [root@localhost ~]# objdump -d apioops > log …………………………………. 0000000000400498 <main>: 400498: 55 push %rbp 400499: 48 89 e5 mov %rsp,%rbp 40049c: 48 83 ec 10 sub $0x10,%rsp 4004a0: 89 7d fc mov %edi,0xfffffffffffffffc(%rbp) 4004a3: 48 89 75 f0 mov %rsi,0xfffffffffffffff0(%rbp) 4004a7: be c8 05 40 00 mov $0x4005c8,%esi 4004ac: bf cb 05 40 00 mov $0x4005cb,%edi 4004b1: b8 00 00 00 00 mov $0x0,%eax 4004b6: e8 dd fe ff ff callq 400398 <printf@plt> 4004bb: b8 00 00 00 00 mov $0x0,%eax 4004c0: c7 00 00 00 00 00 movl $0x0,(%rax) 4004c6: c9 leaveq 4004c7: c3 retq 4004c8: 90 nop …………………………………………
kernelsourcexxxrpm自己编译的kernelsource7ssh工具sshsecureshell用于windows系统与linux系统之间的文件传输8串口工具用于调试拿log信息windos下用超级终端或者securecrtlinux下用minicomckermit12printkdefinekernemergdefinekernalertactionmusttakenimmediatelydefinekerncritcriticalconditionsdefinekernerrerrorconditionsdefinekernwarningwarningconditionsdefinekernnoticesignificantconditiondefinekerninfodefinekerndebugdebuglevelmessages通过procsyskernelprintk文件可以调节printk的输出级别同时设置grubconfkernel这一行加上13oops和panic131apioopsdebug1311