彩色ppt模板

Compare promotional buyers with nonpromotional buyers
1
2 Loyalty program panel data
Halo
• • •
d goes from 1 to 4 for the health, beauty, edible products and general merchandise departments Separate halo effect for each department Deseasonalize and first difference
HOW CAN WE
EVALUATE
THE EFFECTS OF
PROMOTION
Δ SALES Δ SALES = Promotion Sales – Baseline Sales Gross Lift Manufacturer V.S. Retailer
Stockpiling Store net unit impact = Incremental Lift + Halo
Promotion Profitability for a Retailer
03 09 13 16
Data Methodology Correlates Key findings
1 2 3 4
KEY FINDINGS >>
1
45% 10% switching stockpiling
incremental lift
4
Cross-store variation is a small component of total variation in net impact. Cross-category and crossbrand components are both significant, and the latter is particularly substantial in net profit impact.
Switching
Consider two extreme situations
• • • • Accounting for the gross lift from all promoted items Season Store Frist difference
Stockpiling
Estimate the stockpiling percentage for a category across stores
T
thanks for your attention
45%
2
There is a positive halo effect of promotion; for every unit of gross lift, .16 unit of some other product is purchased elsewhere in the store.
3
Despite the substantial net unit impact, more than half of CVS promotions are not profitable, because promotional margin is often significantly less than regular margin.
Promotion Sales
+
Base Sales
–
Switching loss
– – +
Stockpiling loss
Halo gain
Promotion Profitability for a Retailer
03 09 13 16
Data Methodology Correlates Key findings
1 2 3 4
Promotion Profitability for a Retailer
03 09 13 16
Data Methodology Correlates Key findings
1 2 3 4
DATA >>
DATA
CVS
• Weekly point-of-purchase scanner data for 2003 • CVS ExtraCare Loyalty program, 2 years panel data • Internal company records, et.
Presenter: GUO DONG
PROMOTION
促 销
005
Marketing Modeling I
Contents
Promotion Profitability for a Retailer
03 09 13 16
Data Methodology Correlates Key findings
1 2 3 4
CORRELATES >>
“
We are not aware of any research that quantifies the net unit and net profit impact of promotion for a retailer and studies the correlates of that net impact. --by the author
5
Many promotion and brand correlates that are positively associated with net unit impact have a negative association with net profit impact, revealing a difficult challenge for retailers.
= Gross lift – Switching – Stoc源自piling + Halo
Switching
Gross Lift Gross Lift = Unit sales of a item – baseline
• • The number of weeks varies with the turnover Seasonality of the item
Finally, net unit impact and net profit impact can be calculated:
Store net unit impact = Gross lift – Switching – Stockpiling + Halo = Gross lift (1– %Switching – %Stockpiling + %Halo) Store net profit impact = Promotion sales – Base sales – Switching loss – Stockpiling loss+ Halo gain
P
romotion Profitability for a Retailer
the role of promotion, brand, category and store characteristics Kusum L. Ailawadi, Bari A. Harlam, et.
Journal of Marketing Research
Conceptual Framework
Store net unit impact = Incremental Lift + Halo = Gross lift – Switching – Stockpiling + Halo
Store net unit impact: incremental lift Store net profit impact: the retailer’s promotion V.S. regular margin