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塞思•卡拉曼的《安全边际》最这几天刚看完塞思•卡拉曼的《安全边际――有思想投资者的价值投资避险策略》，自己感觉一气呵成非常流畅，过去对塞思•卡拉曼并不熟悉，国内对国外投资大家的介绍对象主要是巴菲特、芒格、林奇、索洛斯、罗杰斯等，塞思•卡拉曼这人其实不简单最近看到一篇报道上周四在哥伦比亚商学院举行了一场价值投资会议，以纪念本杰明•格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的经典著作《证券分析》(Security Analysis)修订版的出版，波士顿Baupost Group的塞思•卡拉曼(Seth Klarman)是本书的编辑，他也是美国赫赫有名的价值投资者之一，能成为《证券分析》修订版的编辑证明塞思•卡拉曼在价值投资界的杰出地位、而且在25年的长期投资实践中获得了20％复利的杰出收益，由这位“知”与“行”都杰出的价值投资者来演绎价值投资确实不同凡响。
在塞思•卡拉曼的《安全边际――有思想投资者的价值投资避险策略》共有三个部分组成：第一部分、多数投资者会在那里跌倒：这部分内容让我联想到另一部经典名著《客户的游艇在那里？》，“华尔街的本质”或“机构之间的博弈”都趋向于将普通投资者推到输家的位置，真如本书主编张志雄所言“投资真的不简单”。
第二部分、价值投资哲学：这是本书最经典的部分，塞思•卡拉曼对价值投资及其核心内涵“安全边际”的演绎即简单朴实又深刻实用，下面我将重点记录下一些主要观点及我的思考，我希望自己能进入一种与塞思•卡拉曼面对面的交流情景。
第三部分、价值投资过程：这是第二部分价值投资哲学在实践中的实证分析，每个价值投资者都应该在价值投资哲学体系下演绎属于自己的实证。
我先记录下塞思•卡拉曼对价值投资的演绎过程：什么是价值投资？――价值投资是一门以大幅低于当前潜在价值的价格购买证劵、并持有至价格更多的反映这些价值时的学科，便宜是这一投资过程的关键。
其实对价值投资的最初定义来源于格雷厄姆、这也是奠定格雷厄姆成为价值投资之父的根本原因，价值投资哲学也是以此为基础进行拓展的，这虽然是个简单的定义但也是一个模糊的定义，比如何为“大幅低于”?何为“更多的反映”？又何为“便宜”呢？价值投资其实只是一个原则性的定性概念，在实际操作中由于没有适当的或公认的标准来区分概念中的这些模糊性、价值投资演变为价值陷阱或价值骗子也就难以避免。
配电网自动化复习资料一、判断题：1.配电管理系统（DMS）主要包括：SCADA、负荷管理（LM）、自动绘图和设备管理AM/FM、投诉电话热线（TC）等功能。
（√）2.EMS中对某一量测采样是指以某一时间间隔保存到历史数据库，以便日后查看。
时间间隔通常有1秒、5秒、1分钟、5分钟等，一旦对某一量测定义好采样间隔就不能再更改。
（×）3.为了分析事故，在一些断路器发生事故跳闸时，系统自动把事故生后一段时间的有关遥测量记录下来，这种功能称为事故追忆（×）4.SOE中记录的时间是信息发送到SCADA系统的时间。
（×）5.判断系统发生预想事故后电压是否越限和线路是否过负荷的分析称为动态安全分析。
（×）6.EMS中的PAS应用软件，一般有两种工作模式：实时模式和研究模式。
（√）7.网络结线分析时，按开关状态和网络元件状态将母线模型化为网络物理结点模型，并将有电气联系的结点集合化为岛。
（×）8.状态估计是高维线性方程的加权最小二乘解问题。
（×）9.提高负荷预测精度的主要途径是硬件要好。
（×）10.判断系统发生预想事故后系统是否失去稳定的分析称之为静态安全分析。
判断系统发生预想事故后电压是否越限和线路是否过负荷的分析称为动态安全分析。
（×）11.网络拓扑是调度自动化系统应用功能中的最基本功能。
它根据遥信信息确定地区电网的电气连接状态，并将网络的物理模型转换为数学模型。
（√）12.电力系统状态估计就是利用实时量测系统的冗余性,应用估计算法来检测与剔除坏数据。
其作用是提高数据精度及保持数据的前后一致性,为网络分析提供可信的实时潮流数据。
（√）13．电力系统状态估计是根据SCADA系统提供的实时信息，给出电网内各母线电压（幅值和相角）和功率的估计值；主要完成遥信及遥测初检、网络拓扑分析、量测系统可观测性分析、不良数据辨识、母线负荷预报模型的维护、变压器分接头估计、量测误差估计等功能。
《非理性繁荣》读书笔记《非理性繁荣》读书笔记范文（通用6篇）看完一本名著后，相信大家的视野一定开拓了不少，记录下来很重要哦，一起来写一篇读书笔记吧。
你想知道读书笔记怎么写吗？以下是小编精心整理的《非理性繁荣》读书笔记范文（通用6篇），欢迎大家分享。
《非理性繁荣》读书笔记篇1最近读了希勒写的《非理性繁荣》。
这是一本学术著作，作者把非理性繁荣作为了一个研究对象从结构上，文化上，心理上进行了研究。
我佩服作者的丰富的知识，严谨的考证，细心的调查，但我不太喜欢这种典型的西式研究方法，一切用图表数据说话，然后试图解释这些图表数据说明的东西。
书我读起来有些拗口，这是因为我浮躁的心态，翻译的不畅。
我只是简单的翻了一遍。
但这过程中，围绕非理性繁荣这个命题，我确实想到了很多，这有很多我已经形成的观念和正在形成的观念，借此机会我正好把它表达出来。
所以这并不是一篇读后感。
关于非理性？投资者心理对经济理解总是延迟和放大的。
中国自2000年后的快速增长，直到05，06年才体现到股市上来，而且投资者放大了对经济增长的感触，07年就进入非理性的状态了。
危机也在那时埋伏，当股市开始下跌，很容易就进入了bengpan，这是一种非理性的恐慌，也不难理解为什么会很轻易的跌破基本面关口和心理关口。
人也如此，发达时，自信和欲望也会极度膨胀，以为天下唯我独尊；落魄时，觉得自己什么都不是，自杀的心都有。
股市就是由这样的人构成的，所以也有这样的性格。
人要认清自己，成不骄，败不馁，任何时候都要有一个平和的心态。
成熟的股市也应该这样。
但话又说回来，不成熟的股市才有获得超额利润的机会。
庞氏骗局和击鼓传花我在想这种放大效应是如何传播出去的。
贪婪和恐慌最终是如何被放大到了疯狂。
这其实就是个庞氏骗局，说白了就是传销。
庞氏骗局因为臭名昭著的麦道夫而被大家所熟悉，传销在我国是明文禁止的。
大盘涨了，所以更多的人进来，所以大盘再涨，直到泡沫破裂。
大多数投资者都知道其中的端倪，为什么他们还参与到其中呢？我想这是一种“击鼓传花”的心理，每个人都不会认为自己就那么倒霉轮到最后一个，每个人都相信自己能都获利逃脱。
security认证原理-回复Security认证原理是在信息安全领域中的一种核心技术，用于验证用户身份和授权访问资源。
认证是确保用户提供的身份信息与其声称的身份相匹配的过程，而授权是确定用户是否具有访问特定资源的权限。
本文将一步一步回答关于Security认证原理的问题，从介绍基本概念开始，到实际应用中的常见方法和最佳实践。
第一步：介绍认证和授权的基本概念认证是指验证用户身份的过程，确保用户提供的身份信息是真实有效的。
通常，认证过程包括用户提供身份信息，系统验证身份信息的真实性，最后系统给予用户特定权限。
授权是在用户通过认证后，确定其是否具有访问特定资源的权限。
这样，只有经过认证和授权的用户才能访问敏感信息和资源，确保信息安全。
第二步：介绍常见的认证方法常见的认证方法包括密码认证、令牌认证、生物识别认证和多因素认证。
密码认证是最常见的方法，用户通过输入用户名和密码进行身份验证。
令牌认证是通过硬件或软件提供的令牌进行验证，令牌可以是基于时间的动态口令或一次性口令。
生物识别认证使用用户的生物特征（如指纹、虹膜、面容等）进行验证，基于用户的唯一特征。
多因素认证是一种结合多种认证方法，提高认证的安全性，如结合密码和指纹进行认证。
第三步：介绍常见的授权方法常见的授权方法包括基于角色的访问控制（RBAC）和基于属性的访问控制（ABAC）。
RBAC是通过将用户分配到不同的角色，给予角色不同的权限，然后将用户和角色进行绑定，从而实现访问控制。
ABAC是根据用户的属性（如职位、部门、时间等）判断其是否具备访问资源的权限，通过定义一系列策略和规则来实现动态授权。
第四步：介绍认证和授权的流程认证和授权的流程通常包括以下几个步骤：用户提交身份信息（如用户名和密码）、系统验证身份信息的真实性、系统判断用户是否具有访问资源的权限、系统给予用户特定权限、用户访问资源。
这个流程确保只有经过认证和授权的用户才能访问特定资源，提高信息安全性。
巴菲特经典演讲：格雷厄姆和多德都市里的超级投资者(有图)编者按：1984年，为了纪念由Benjamin Graham和Daved L. Dodd所合著的《Security Analysis》出版五十周年，哥伦比亚大学邀请了巴菲特来主办一场演讲。
这篇文章，“The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville”，乃是根据当时的讲稿改编而成。
文中，巴菲特告诉我们，Graham 的追随者们如何运用Graham的价值投资法，在股市中取得非凡的成功。
（因此，文中的第一人称“我”，指的是巴菲特。
）也许有人会问：Graham和Dodd所提倡的价值投资法，是不是已经过时了呢？今天，很多学术人员会回答说：是的。
他们认为，市场是有效的，所以，一切有关经济状况和公司的前景的因素都会反映在股票的价格中。
这是因为股市中有很多聪明的分析员，他们会尽量应用所有已知的资讯，使得股票不会偏离其合理的价格。
支持此理论的人认为，股市中是没有所谓的“被低估”的股票的；而那些所谓“能够战胜市场”的投资者，也只不过是侥幸罢了。
因为，根据其理论（价格已反映所有资讯），拥有“长期战胜市场”的能力，是不可能的。
无论如何，以下我将为大家介绍一批投资者。
他们年复一年的，取得了比S&P500指数更好的投资成果。
那么，他们的成功到底是不是纯粹的巧合或运气呢，这是值得我们来验证一下的。
首先一点，所有以下例举的这些成功者都是我所认识的人，而且都是早在15年前或更久以前，就已经被认定为是优秀的投资者了的。
这一点非常重要。
因为，如果说，我是在今天早上才从几千个名单中选出最成功的那几个来给你们，那以下的内容就没有什么意义了。
第二点，所有的这些投资记录都是经过审查的（audited）。
而且，我曾向有参与这些基金的人们求证，他们这些年来所取得的回酬，证实是与这些基金的财政报告相符的。
在我们开始这项验证之前，先说一个比喻。
大家想象一下，现在我们举办一个全国性的“掷硬币”赌博游戏，让全体美国人（2.25亿）一起参加，每个人的都以1美元的赌注开始玩。
安全检查分析在管理中的运用摘要 :介绍了安全管理、安全检查分析和常规管理之间的关系，提出安全问题的背后隐藏着常规管理矛盾的激化。
探讨利用对安全检查结果的深入分析，帮助管理者准确有效发现和把握组织的突出矛盾。
关键词：安全管理；安全检查分析；运用中图分类号：tu996 文献标识码：a 文章编号：the application security check analysis in management huang kaiabstrac: introduces security management, security analysis and the relationship between the regular management, puts forward security issues of hidden behind the routine management of intensify contradictions, discussed using the results of safety inspection of the thorough analysis to help managers to accurate and effective detection and grasp the prominent contradictions of the organization.key words：security management; security analysis; use 概论在管理中经常会出现这样一种情况，管理者对组织的情况不甚了了，对问题的结症和本质不能准确掌握。
所以管理者需要花费大量的精力对组织的各种情况或问题进行调查和了解，但是收获往往不尽人意。
与此同时，组织在安全管理方面存在一些类似现象会反复的发生，或者解决了一个问题又会出现“新的问题”，占用管理者大量的精力。
华尔街人必读的22本金融佳作2013年12月10日 09:47 华尔街见闻我有话说(53人参与)美国金融博客网站BusinessInsider列出了华尔街人必读的22本金融佳作，既涵盖投资技巧，也搜罗了那些讲述曾在华尔街上演的惊心动魄的故事。
这些书是经典中的经典，值得一看。
1、《聪明的投资者》(The Intelligent Investor)Benjamin Graham。
格雷厄姆专门为业余投资者所著，巴菲特称之为“有史以来最伟大的投资著作”。
《聪明的投资者》2，《怎样选择成长股》(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)Philip Fisher巴菲特称自己的投资策略是“85%的格雷厄姆和15%的费舍尔”。
《怎样选择成长股》3，《投资价值理论》(The Theory of Investment Value)John Burr Williams《投资价值理论》4，《非理性繁荣》(Irrational Exuberance)Robert Shiller作者罗勃·席勒也是2013年诺贝尔经济学奖得主。
《纽约客》评论道：《非理性繁荣》不仅预言了市场的衰落，更为重要的是，它对于解读投机性泡沫的产生和持续进行了严谨而有益的尝试。
《非理性繁荣》5，《彼得·林奇的成功投资》(One Up on Wall Street)Peter Lynch彼得·林奇是全球首屈一指的投资专家，本书总结了股票投资的诸多技巧，向广大的中小投资者提供了简单易学的投资分析方法，这些方法是作者多年的经验总结，具有很强的实践性，对于业余投资者来说尤为有益。
《彼得·林奇的成功投资》6，《与天为敌：风险探索传奇》(Against the Gods)Peter L. Bernstein《与天为敌：风险探索传奇》7，《股票作手回忆录》(Reminiscences of a Stock Operator)Edwin Lefevre股票作手回忆录》8，《金融炼金术》(The Alchemy of Finance)George Soros本书是索罗斯的投资日记。
取财有道的名人例子(一)取财有道的名人1. Warren Buffett作为全球知名的投资大师，Warren Buffett一直以来都以取得长期稳定的投资回报著称。
他的投资思路主要以价值投资为主，即通过分析公司的基本面，找到被高估或低估的股票并进行投资。
而且他非常强调投资的安全性和长期性，他自己也以长期投资姿态获得了众多丰厚的回报。
2. Peter LynchPeter Lynch也是一位非常成功的投资家，他在撰写的《One Up On Wall Street》这本书中详细介绍了他的投资原则。
他认为，普通投资者可以从自己周围的生活和工作中获得投资机会，他又称之为“拣便宜股票”，即购买具备高增长潜力且价格便宜的公司股票。
此外，他还主张投资者要有耐心，不为任何短期波动所影响，以长期的视角来看待自己的投资。
3. Ray DalioRay Dalio是世界上最富有和最成功的对冲基金经理之一。
他的投资方法主要是运用大数据和算法，通过系统性思考来对投资决策进行评估。
他创建的桥水基金公司以其高超的风险控制和获利表现而备受赞誉。
而且他也是一位非常重视学习和成长的人，他的思维方式和方法也广受人们的追捧。
4. John PaulsonJohn Paulson以他在2008年金融危机中获得高额回报的基金业绩而受到关注。
他的投资策略通过识别市场趋势和经济周期，来找到带来高收益的投资机会。
他也是一位很善于利用杠杆的投资者，通过使用杠杆放大他的投资回报。
虽然他的投资风格较为激进，但是他在金融市场上的成功，并且也为人们提供了不同于传统价值投资的思路。
5. George SorosGeorge Soros也是全球知名的投资家之一，他的投资哲学主要包括了“开放社会思想”和“特定市场情况”。
他提出了“反向思考”、“流动性优势”和“短期持有、长期关注”等投资原则。
他以对冲基金和货币交易而聚集了巨大的财富，他的投资策略也成为了全球投资者学习和效仿的对象。
Latest update: December 4, 200010. SecuritySecurity is a basic aspect of distributed systems, especially those connected to the Internet.Internet security is now very weak and successful attacks occur frequently [Fer00]. This is due (among other reasons) to weaknesses in each architectural level and to the lack of coordination of the defenses at each level [Fer98]. Lack of security is one of the main reasons given by people who do not want to use the Internet for electronic commerce. Security for commercial systems is based on the access matrix model [Sum97]. Thisdefines authorizations that should be based on roles and use cases [Fer99]. User roles are the basis for many enterprise models, including cooperative work models and workflow models. Role-based access control is an attempt to associate authorization rights with specific user roles [Sand96]; that is, this approach is an embodiment of the least privilege principle, where users acquire rights according to their functions. Once defined at the highest level, rights should be propagated to the lower levels. The authorizations can be mapped to EJB authorizations, to CORBA authorizations, to database system authorizations, and to file permissions in the operating system. This mapping is facilitated if the different mechanisms at each level are described as patterns [Fer00a], [Fer00b].EJBs have Deployment Descriptors, which contain Access Control Entries. Each entry identifies a person, group, or role that can access the whole bean or some specific methods. Accessing server objects in CORBA requires some type of adapter. Access to an object can be intercepted by the adapter and access control can be applied (see the Interceptor pattern below) [Chi99]. JNDI also can be used to associate authorizations with attributes or objects. DBMSs, e.g., Oracle and Informix, have authorization systems that can implement RBAC. All these systems can support the mapping of high-level authorizations. However, operating systems such as Unix do not implement a full access matrix model and cannot fully support an RBAC model. Because the operating system is the lowest software level, this is a serious flaw. Some vendors, e.g., IBM, HP, and Bulldog offer strengthened versions of Unix; other operating systems such as Windows 2000 can provide support for RBAC.Downloaded contents poses additional risks and there has been a large amount of work on its security aspects. This makes Java a strongly secure system compared to the weaknesses of current operating systems.A problem is that most companies think that Internet security is synonymous with cryptography. This is a misconception, while cryptography is useful, none of the recent attacks could have been prevented by cryptography alone [Fer00]. As an example, a recent announcement by IONA says that they are securing their iPortal suite by using public key techniques [ION00]. They don’t mention hardening the operating system, a much more effective measure.Clearly, security is not just a technical problem, there are administrative aspects which are extremely important to obtain a secure system. The combination of technical and administrative aspects can currently produce strong systems, what is needed is that the enterprises take a serious approach to security.Interceptor Pattern [POSA2]Intent: Allows services to be added transparently to a framework and triggered automatically by specific eventsExample: A design for a new ORB will require a variety of hard-to-predict services. If these services are incorporated in the initial ORB there may be missing services as well as unnecessary services. If they are incorporated in the application, performance and security may suffer because they need to be integrated with the core structure.Context: Frameworks that should be extended transparently.Forces:• A framework should allow the integration of additional services without requiring deep modifications.•Existing components or frameworks should not be affected.•Applications using a framework may need to observe or control its behavior.Solution: Register services with the framework via predefined interfaces. The services would be triggered when specific events occur.Define context objects to introspect and control some aspects of the framework’s internal state.CRC model: Concrete FrameworkInterceptor—defines an interface for integrating servicesConcrete interceptorDispatcher—Registers and removes concrete interceptorsContext object—Allows services to obtain information from the concrete framework.Application—Runs on the concrete framework, implements concreteinterceptors.Class diagram: p. 115Sequence diagram: p. 116Known uses: Component-based application serversCORBA implementationsWeb browsersReferences[Ben95] M. Benantar, B.Blakley, and A.J.Nadalin, "Approach to object security in Distributed SOM", IBM Sys. J. , vol. 35, No 2, 1996, 192-203.[Chi99] D. Chizmadia, “CORBAsec: Securing distributed systems”, Software Development,June 1999, /supplement/ss/featuress996fl.shtml[Cor97] CORBA security: /corba/sectrans.htmDen97 R.H.Deng, S.K.Bhonsle, W.Wang, and zar, "Integrating security in the CORBA architecture", Theory and Practice of Object Systems, vol. 3, No 1, 1997, 3-13.Fer96 E.B.Fernandez et al., “High-level security issues in multimedia / hypertext systems”, in Communications and Multimedia Security II , P. Horster (Ed.) , Chapman & Hall, 1996, 13-24.Fer97 E. B. Fernandez and J. C. Hawkins, “Determining role rights from use cases”, Procs. 2nd ACM Workshop on Role-Based Access Control, November 1997, 121-125. [Fer98] E.B.Fernandez and K.R. Nair, “An abstract authorization system for the Internet”, Procs. 9th Int. Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applics. ( DEXA '98), 310-315.[Fer99] E.B.Fernandez, "Coordination of security levels for Internet architectures", Procs. 10th Intl. Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications, 1999, 837-841.[Fer00] sd[Fer00a] metadataHar97 B. Hartman, DCOM and CORBA secure interoperability? , Dist. Object Computing, July 1997, 47-49.Har99 B. Hartman, "Enterprise Java Beans security", Dist. Object Computing, Jan./Feb. 1999, 30-34.Hay00 V. Hays, M. Loutrel, and E.B.Fernandez, "The Object Filter and Access Control Framework", Procs. of PloP 2000,/~plop/plop2k/proceedings/proceedings.html[ION00] IONA Technologies, Press announcement, Sept. 12, 2000./pressroom/2000Kon95 M.M.Kong, "DCE: An environment for secure client/server computing", HPJournal, December 1995, 6-15.Par97 J.H.Parodi and F.W.Burgher, "Integrating ObjectBroker and DCE security", Digital Tech. Journal, vol. 9, No 1, 1997, 42-48.[POSA2][Sum97] R.C.Summers, Secure Computing: Threats and Safeguards, McGraw-Hill, 1997.Fer98 E. B. Fernandez and K. R. Nair, “An abstract authorization system for the Internet”, Procs. 9th Int. Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applics. (DEXA '98), 310-315.Gar97 S. Garfinkel and G. Spafford, Web security and commerce , O’Reilly and Assocs., Inc., 1997.Har97 B. Hartman, "DCOM and CORBA --Secure interoperability ? ", Distributed Object Computing, July 1997, 47-49.Kar97 G. Karjoth et al. , "A security model for Aglets", IEEE Internet Computing, July-August 1997, 68-77. /java/education/agletsFer96 E. B. Fernandez et al., “High-level security issues in multimedia / hypertext systems”, in Communications and Multimedia Security II , P. Horster (Ed.), Chapman & Hall, 1996, 13-24.Fer98 E. B. Fernandez and K. R. Nair, “An abstract authorization system for the Internet”, Procs. 9th Int. Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applics. (DEXA '98), 310-315.。
Seminar 11.Explain the major features of short-selling and discuss the possible implicating of short-selling bans on stock prices and investors.―In finance, short selling or "shorting" is a way to profit from the decline in price of a security, such as a stock, bond...‖ (Hedge Fund Data, 2013) A short sale is the sale of stock that you do not own with the intent of purchasing it back later at a lower price. There are many risks in short-selling. First of all, the loss can be infinite. Secondly, shorting stock involves using borrowed money. Thirdly, Short squeezes can wring the profit out of your investment. Moreover, even if you’re right, it could be at the wrong time.To control the volatility of the market, stabilize equities market price, and to strengthen investor confidence, many countries choose to ban short-selling. For example, in 18 Sep- 8 Oct 2008 (US) SEC halt short selling in 799 financial institutions and in 23 Jul 2012- 31Jan 2013 Spain‘s market regulator banned short selling of the stocks. Such bans will have influences on both stock prices and the investors.Some scholars believe that the short-selling bans will cause overpricing in stock prices. Miller (1977) earliest indicates that, if the investors have different views on future trend of stock prices, the high costs of the short-selling ban will result in overpricing. Bearish investors can‘t do the short-selling under the ban and the stock prices only reflect the expectations of optimistic investors. Therefore, Harrison and Kreps (1978) consider that the prices under bans will be higher than the prices without bans. Moreover, Chang et al. (2007) believe that the more significant on investors heterogeneous expectations the more significant ‗overpricing‘.However, By testing, Jarrow (1980) finds that the short-selling bans can not result in overpricing issue. Diamond and Verrecchia (1987) argue that the risk-neutral investors realize the bans and then adjusting their expectations of future stock prices under a rational market assumption. With the same assumption, Bai et al. (2006) consider the stock prices could be increased or decreased if the investors are risk-averse.As for the investors, Short-selling bans moderate the trading activity of informed traders who have negative information about fundamentals. (Diamond and Verrecchia 1987) Deteriorated the market liquidity significantly. Meanwhile, the bans slowed function of price discovery, which is more significant in bear markets than in bull markets (Beder and Pagano 2013). Thirdly, such bans slowed or prevented the flow of information. As a result, the markets or participants become less informative. At last, the bans damaged the function of risk pooling and sharing in financial market and destroyed the function of optimal allocation of risky-assets in financial market Essential reading : Alessandro Beber and Marco Pagano (2012), Short-Selling Bans around the World: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis,Journal of Finance, forthcoming.2.Outline the major features of prominent financial instruments used in financial (money and capital) markets.Financial markets generally divided in two parts, money market and capital market. Money market always means that Short term borrowing (< 1 year), high liquidity, Low credit risk, often trade in large denominations, and it is Sub-sector of the Fixed Income Market.Capital market divided into Bond, Equity, and Derivative Market. They are long term borrowing, containing riskier securities.Money market instruments give businesses, financial institutions and governments a way to finance their short-term cash requirements. The main financial instruments in money market include Treasury Bills (T-Bills), Certificates of Deposit (CD), Commercial Paper, Bankers ‗Acceptances, Repos and Reverses, and LIBOR Marke t. The features of the instruments above are as follows.Treasury Bills:•Issued by the government to finance deficit•Most marketable and therefore highly liquid•Issued at discount from the stated maturity (face) value•Very low risk•No Coupon•Maturity of 28, 91 or 182 days•Income earned on T-Bills is exempted from taxes•Sold at low transaction cost with no price riskCertificates of Deposit (CD)•Maturity 1 month to 5 years•Time deposit with a bank•Fixed maturity and may not be withdrawn•Highly marketable and can be sold to other investors•Transferable if owner needs cashCommercial Paper (similar to T-Bill)•Maturity up to 270 days•Short term and unsecured (not backed by assets) debt notes issued by large companies•Used for funding by the company to invest in other assets•Not registered with the SEC (low administration costs)•Interest rates fluctuates with market conditionBankers ‗Acceptances (typically within 6 months): Order to bank by a banks customer to pay a sum of money in future date within 6 months•Very safe due to guarantee by the bank•Sold at discount•Trade in secondary market•Frequently used in international tradeRepos and Reverses•Used for short term (mainly overnight or up to two days) borrowing•Dealer sells gov.securities to an investor with an agreement to buy back those securities the next day at a slightly higher price•Reverse Repo is opposite of repo. The dealer finds an investor holding government securities and purchases them with an agreement to resell them on a future date for a higher price•Very safe in term of credit riskLIBOR Market•The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) is the rate at which large banks in London are willing to lend money to other banks•It is the premier short-term interest rate quoted in the European money market and serves as a reference rate for a wide range of transactions.•Libor rates: calculated for ten currencies and 15 borrowing periods varying from overnight to one year and published daily by a board of influential banksCapital Market instruments often with maturities of more than one year.Bond and fixed income market:•Long term borrowing: 1 year to 30 years•Coupon (with interest) or Zero Coupon Bonds (sold at discount)–Treasury Notes/Bonds: issued by government; semi-annual interest payments–Municipal Bonds : issued by state and local; interest is exempt from federal income taxation–Corporate Bonds: Private firms borrow money from the public;semi-annual coupons and return face-value to bondholder but have ahigher default riskEquity market:Stocks represent partial ownership in a publicly held Corporation and are traded/listed on a stock exchange•May produce higher returns but are more risky•No maturity and no fixed incomeOrdinary Share•Residual Claim•May receive Dividends•Voting rights•Limited liabilityPreference Shares•no voting power•generally paying a fixed dividend•lower priority than bondsDerivative market:•The value is derived from the value of an underlying (e.g. stocks, commodities) • A derivative is an predefined agreement between two parties:–Price, amount and expiration date•Hedgers, Speculators, ArbitrageursOptions• a right to buy an asset (call)• a righ t to sell an asset (put)Forwards•an obligation to buy (long)•an obligation to sell (short)•traded over-the-counterFutures•standardized Forwards•listed/traded on an exchangeConclusion:Money markets are a good place to ―park‖ funds that are needed in a shorter time period (1 year or less). Capital markets are risky markets and are not usually used to invest short-term funds and also capital market instead of having higher risk also offer higher return in comparison to money market securities.3: Discuss the main functions of investment bank during the IPO processDefinition: Initial public offerings or IPOs, are stocks issued by a formerly privately owned company that is going public, that is, selling stock to the public for the first time.IPO Process:⏹Select IBs: Investment Banks (IB) is a financial intermediary that performs a varietyof services. An investment bank can advise it and perform underwriting functions in connection with the issue. Investment bankers advise the firm regarding the terms on which it should attempt to sell the securities.The selection process is a two-way selection.⏹Develop & File Prospectus: IBs initiate research about the company and thendevelop and file the prospectus (registration statement) to SEC. A preliminary registration statement must be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), describing the issue and the prospects of the company. This preliminary prospectus is known as a red herring because it includes a statement printed in red stating that the company is not attempting to sell the security before the registration is approved. When the statement is in final form and accepted by the SEC, it is called the prospectus. At this point, the price at which the securities will be offered to the public is announced.⏹Road Show: Once the SEC has commented on the registration statement and apreliminary prospectus has been distributed to interested investors, the investment bankers organize road shows in which they travel around the country to publicize the imminent offering. These road shows serve two purposes. First, they generate interest among potential investors and provide information about the offering.Second, they provide information to the issuing firm and its underwriters about the price at which they will be able to market the securities.⏹Establish offer price and number of shares & Issuing: Large investors communicatetheir interest in purchasing shares of the IPO to the underwriters; these indications of interest are called a book and the process of polling potential investors is called book building. These indications of interest provide valuable information to the issuing firm because institutional investors often will have useful insights about the market demand for the security as well as the prospects of the firm and its competitors.Investment bankers frequently revise both their initial estimates of the offering price of a security and the number of shares offered based on feedback from the investing community. The firm and the lead underwriter meet to discuss two final (and very important) details: the offer price and the exact number of shares to be sold. Then,issue the shares to investors. If the offer price is too high, the investment bank will fail to sell all of the new issue. If the offer price is too low, the new issue will quickly sell out, however, the company will not reap any of this extra money.⏹Stabilization, recommend & make a market: After-market support is activities by anunderwriter to support the offering price of a new issue stock in the aftermarket.Once the issue is brought to market, the underwriter has several additional activities to complete: stabilize the price if order imbalances arise; guarantee the liquidity to investor; the provision of analyst recommendations; make a market in the stock.Roles:With best efforts underwriting, investment bankers act as agents on a fee basis related to their success in placing the issue with investors. In firm commitment underwriting, the investment banker acts as a principal, purchasing the securities from the issuer at one price and seeking to place them with public investors at a slightly higher price. Finally, in addition to investment banking operations in the corporate securities markets, the investment banker may participate as an underwriter (primary dealer) in government, municipal, and mortgage-backed securities.⏹Benefits of the role in investment banks❑Financial advisors: provide professional advice❑Global coordinators: minimize information asymmetry lower costs❑Lead underwriter: certificate issuance by its reputation pricing❑Market makers: support the aftermarketAdvantages of IPOS using investment banks⏹Underwriting. This is the insurance function of bearing the risk of adverse pricefluctuations during the period in which a new issue of securities is being distributed.Underwriters left with unmarketable securities are forced to sell them at a loss on the secondary market. Therefore, the investment banker bears price risk for an underwritten issue.⏹Distribution. Another related function is the ability of investment banks to reach asmany investors as possible.⏹Advice and counsel. The experience and expertise of the investment bank in issuingshares before and its ability to advice the management, such as pricing services, recommendations and other ancillary servicesDisadvantages of IPOs by using investment banks⏹High cost of money and time. There is a spread between what the underwriters buythe stock from the issuing corporation for and the price at which the shares are offered to the public.⏹No guarantee for success⏹Under-pricing of the shares and over-valuation of the company. If a firm wishes to geta large allocation when it is optimistic about the security, it needs to reveal itsoptimism. In turn, the underwriter needs to offer the security at a bargain price tothese investors to induce them to participate in book-building and share their information. Thus, IPOs commonly are underpriced compared to the price at which they could be marketed. Such underpricing is reflected in price jumps that occur on the date when the shares are first traded in public security markets.⏹Double identities. Th e dilemma between an underwriter and an issuer‘s agent willresult in underpriced IPOs or overpriced IPOs and then abnormally high first day returns of IPOs and poor long-term performances of IPOs⏹Moral hazards. They often use own reputation to make false certification and thenmay result in poor quality of IPOs and lower the efficiency of IPOs market and harm the interest of other players.Solutions:⏹Greater the reputation of investment bank, the more effective it is in reducing impactof asymmetric information in equity markets (Chemmanur,1994).⏹Investment Bank market share is enhanced when neither clientele, issuers norinvestors, are harmed by the pricing of past deals (Dunbar, 2000).⏹If Investment Banks diverge from the underpricing equilibrium, they will lose marketshares, e.g. underprice too little, lose potential investors; underprice too much, lose issuers (Randolph, 1986).4: Compare and contrasts the major features of unit trusts and investment trusts and comment on the services that these trusts can offer to an investor.Unit trustsUnit trusts are collective investment vehicle created under trust. They are open-ended. The trust pools the money of numerous individual investors to create a portfolio of financial securities (the fund) with a specific investment objective - income, growth, or a blend of the two.Unit trusts were first offered to the UK public in 1931 by the M&G Group under a deed that allowed little variation in investment policy. There are over 2,000 different unit trusts available to investors in the UK, investing in over 30 sectors.Features:•Open-end fund: An investor will generally purchase shares in the fund directly from the fund itself rather than from the existing shareholders. It means units fund can sell new units to investors and redeem outstanding units on demand at net asset value.•Borrowing: Can borrow up to 10% of the total fund value. Borrowing is usually done for the purpose of managing cash flows rather than to increase the firm‘s investment exposure.•Price: T he price of each unit depends on the net asset value (NAV) of the fund‘s underlying investments. Each unit is priced once per day. Basically, the value of the unit that an investor buys each day reflects the value of the underlying asset.•Taxation: Investors are liable for income tax on dividends, and Capital Gains Tax on realized gains.Investment trustsAn Investment Trust is constituted as a public limited company in its own right and is listed on the London Stock Exchange. As such, it has an independent board that protects shareholders' interests and appoints the investment management company. Investors buy shares in the company. An Investment Trust does not make or sell physical goods. They are close-ended medium-to-long term investmentsFeatures:•Close-ended Funds: A a publicly traded investment company that raises a fixed amount of capital through an initial public offering (IPO). The fund is then structured, listed and traded like a stock on a stock exchange.•Gearing: Investment trusts are permitted to borrow money and invest the proceeds.This makes investment trusts high-risk financial instruments, compared to unit trusts •Prices: Just like individual company shares, the shares of ITs go up and down according to supply and demand or 'market forces'. When the share price is higher than the NAV, the investment trust is said to be trading at a 'premium', when the share price is lower it trades at a 'discount'.•Tax Advantages: Investors are exempt from Capital Gains Taxes. Avoiding the double taxation which would otherwise arise when shareholders sell their shares in the investment trust and are taxed on their gains. One of the benefits of owning shares in an investment trust is that it can trade in and out of its investments without incurring capital gains tax.Unit Trusts can provide affordable way to investors to invest in different assets. Without the pressure of making their own investment decisions, they make the process of investing a lot simpler for investors. And Unit trusts can help spread risk across a portfolio of pooled investments. They allow individuals to buy units of a collective investment, spreading the risk across a portfolio of pooled investments. Also they are easy to understand and engage with the investments.Investment Trusts help to spread risk and costs, and they cost less. Channel funds from financial institutions and households to businesses through the Stock Market and these funds can help businesses grow and expand. And they permit small scale investment. Investors can invest as little as a £250 lump sum or perhaps just £25 per month. Investment Trusts outperform unit trust: Because Investment Trusts are less expensive than Unit Trusts, and they allow managers to take a longer-term view. Investment trusts are more suitable for assets that are hard to sell quickly, like property and infrastructure. Other Factors like structure and governance of the investment trusts help them to outperform.Seminar 21:Discuss the underlying principles of technical analysis.Over the years, with the increased study of the state and the trends of themarket with the aim of discovering the right stocks to buy and the right time to buy such stocks , two radically different methods have arisen: The Fundamental or Statistical Approach and The Technical Approach(dependent on historical trends).Technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This analysis is usually done in a graphic form.Underlying PrinciplesThere are 5 major principles of technical analysis:1. The first principle of technical analysis is that the interaction of supply anddemand determine price. That is, price is determined by those eager to buyand those willing to sell.2.Supply and demand are governed by numerous rational and irrationalfactors (economic variables, mood, opinions and guesses). These factors are changed continually and automatically by market.3.Prices tend to move in trends which persist for appreciable length of time.In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. Thismeans that after a trend has been established, the future price movement ismore likely to be in the same direction as the trend until the major trendchanges and a new trend is established.Unlike the proponents of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH),technicalanalysts expect a gradual price adjustment.because they believe that newinformation does not come to the market at one point in time but rather enters the market over a period of time. This occurs due to different sources of information, or because certain investors receive or perceive informationearlier. As various groups of investors receive the information and act accordingly, the price moves gradually towards the new equilibrium.4. Prices discount everythingTechnical analysts believe that almost all the relevant information is alreadyreflected in the prices. That is to say that the prices themselves are areflection of all the possible factors and variables combined at any givenmoment. The market represent the summation of all market participants view of the future in regards to fundamental expectation, hope, fear, greed,economic forecast, political outlook, news update and other factors.5.History tends to repeat itself.Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeatitself, mainly in terms of price movement. market participants alwaysremember their experiences and tend to provide a consistent reaction tosimilar market over time. Analysis uses chart patterns to analyze marketmovements and understand trends. Although many of these charts havebeen used for more than 100 years, they are still believed to be relevantbecause they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves. CriticismAlthough the principles of Technical analysis have been widely used over the years especially for its easy understanding , it also has some criticisms ,for example :It has a highly subjective nature—the presence of geometric shapes inhistorical price charts is often in the eyes of the beholder.It only considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental factors of thecompany.While there are general ideas and components to every chart pattern, thereis no chart pattern that will tell you with 100% certainty where a sectors isheaded. This creates some debate as what a good pattern looks like.3.Explain how the changes in discount rate affects the stock returns. Support your answer with the help of empirical evidence documented in the literature.※Definition:A discount rate is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve and any other Central Bank charges on short term loans to other banks and financial institutions.※Relationship between discount rate and stock price:According to Hafer, discount rate changes may be thought of as an indication of changes in expected future monetary policy; discount rate changes, on other words, affect financial and interest rates and perceptions of future economic activity. In general,increases in the discount rate reduce stock prices because they presage a tightening of monetary policy. The move toward tighter policy is expected to increase interest rates and reduce real economic activity and, consequently, future corporate cash flows. Stock prices decline because the reduced future cash flows are discounted at higher interest rates. (本段的简略答法：①Indeed the price of a stock may be defined as a discounted sum of infinite cashflows (a perpetuity).②As a consequence of this, P has a positive relationship with C while it has an inverse relationship with r.③Indeed, when r decreases, banks can borrow at lower costs. This advantage is transferred to businesses that can boost their cashflows. Hence, their P increases.)※Empirical Evidence（1）Prather and Bertin (1999)：Introduction: ①58-years analysis of stock returns sorrounding Fed announcements of discount rate changes;②Long-term analysis to capture the effects of a change in discount rates；③Comparison between a passive trading strategy («buy and hold») and a directional reversal strategy based on discount rate changes.Conclusion: ①Discount Rate and Stock returns are inversely correlated.②An initial discount rate cut triggers entry into the stock market, subsequent cuts leave the strategy unchanged, and finally an initial discount-rate increase triggers an exit from the market. （2）Pearce and Roley (1985)Conclusion:①An increase in discount rate, corresponds to a short-run objective of returning to the implied long-run money growth target more quickly. AS A RESULT, market interest rates rise, reflecting reduced short-run money growth.②They have concluded that an increase in the discount rate, may be viewed as bad news for the stock market, therefore, there will be a fall in the stock prices.（3）Jensen and Johnson (1995)They examine the relationship between discount rate changes and both short and long-term stock return.Conclusion: Jensen and Johnson found that stock returns following discount rate decreases are higher and less volatile than returns following rate increases.※Over all conclusion:According to different studies and researches and given the empirical evidences, it can be said that discount rate changes and share prices are negatively correlated.4.‗Unexpected change in money supply and stock returns are inversely related‘. Discuss h ow money supply may affect stock returns and critically assess the empirical validity of this statementTheories:⏹Policy anticipation hypothesis:It maintains that an unexpected jump in the money supply affects nominal interest rates through its effect on the real interest rate component. Given the assumption that pricesare sticky in the short-run the theory predicts that positive (negative) money supply lead to higher (lower) short-term interest rates, because the market expects that the monetary authorities will in the future tighten (relax) the money supply. An increase in real interest rates would lead to lower stock prices as future cash flows are discounted at a higher cost of capital. Also if agents believes that high real interest rates will depress future economic activity that could lead to lower future corporate profits. Therefore, according to this hypothesis, positive (negative) money supply should be associated with lower (higher) stock prices.⏹Expected inflation hypothesis:when money supply rises quicker than was expected, this will lead to higher inflation and the market rate of interest rate will also follow to go up. Thus, stock return may decline.⏹liquidity hypothesis theoryThis theory states that an increase in money supply resulting by government buying back treasury bonds creates excess liquidity in the market. Excessive money supply will attribute to high demand for bonds, thus lower rate of return of bonds will occur. Following that, investors will change from capital market to equity market. Finally, stock price may go up.(The policy anticipation hypothesis predicts a positive relationship between unanticipated monetary change and the nominal interest rate arising through changes in the real rate of interest. Higher than expected monetary change results in expectations of tighter future monetary policy and hence higher real interest rates. The expected inflation hypothesis postulates that higher than expected monetary change is interpreted by agents as evidence of relaxation of monetary targets, thus leading to higher expectations of inflation. Estimating a regression equation of the change in the no)Empirical Evidences:There are many studies concentrated on testing the relationship between money supply and the stock prices; The results about the relationship found in these studies tend to change over the time period. Studies in 1960s and 70s show that there‘s a leading relationship between money supply and change in stock price.One of the famous studies was done by Beryl Sprinkel (1964). Sprinkel used the simple quantity theory of money to explain equity asset pricing. Changes in the money supply, he held, would influence the public's desire to substitute money balances for other financial assets, including stocks. This substitution process, in turn, would generate pressures leading to changes in the prices of stocks. Homa and Jaffee (1971)suggested that investors who could predict money supply accurately will enjoy higher return than those buy and holds. The studies in early period indicate that changes in money supply proceeds the changes in stock prices, and an increase in money supply will lead to an increase in equity prices, thereby supporting the liquidity hypothesis. Due to certain fundamental problems associated with the above research, subsequent researchers have sought to employ better statistical techniques to examine the relation between money and stock prices.Subsequent empirical studies criticize above findings. For instance, Rozeff (1974) followed Cooper‘s st udy and stated that the public information about money supply is available with one or two month lag. Once the information is public, all investors will know the same information and act the way by taking this information into account. Thus。
