资源与环境经济学全册配套教学课件

1. Introduction
1.1The Self-extinction Premise 1.2The Use of Models 1.3Thinking About The Future
1.1The Self-extinction Premise
Thomas Malthus foresaw that population growth would outstrip the growth of food supply, resulting in starvation and death, if reproduction was encouraged.
Limitations of models:
Models are simplified characterizations of reality.
Models may yield conclusions that are dead wrong.
Models are useful abstractions that should always be viewed with some skepticism.
The second conclusion is that piecemeal approaches to solving the individual problems will not be successful.
The third suggests that overshoot and collapse can be avoided only by an immediate limit on population and pollution, as well as cessation of economic growth.
资源与环境经济学全册配套 教学课件
Chapter 1
Visions of The Future
Contents:
1. Introduction 2. The basic pessimist model 3. The basic optimist model 4. The road ahead 5. Issues
1. 2 The Use of Models
In economics, as in most other disciplines, we use models to illustrate complex subjects, such as relationships between the economy and the environment. In using these models, we should also be sensitive to their limitations.
1.1The Self-extinction Premise
Modern ecologists have suggested that ecological disruption would occur with disastrous consequences for humanity if the “carrying capacity” （承载能力） of environment is exceeded widespread.
1.1The Self-extinction Premise
Economists have been concerned with topics such as exhaustible resources（可 耗竭资源） and pollution. Now, we’ve come to better understand the relationship between humanity and the environment and how that relationship affects, and is affected by, economic and political institutions.
2.1 Conclusions of Pessimist Model
The first suggests that within a time span of less than 100 years with no major change in the physical, economic, or social relationships that have traditionally governed world development, society will run out of the nonrenewable resources on which the industrial base depends. When the resources have been depleted, a precipitous collapse of the economic system will result decreased food production, and a decline in population as the death rate soars.
2.2 The Nature of the Model
The dominant characteristic of the model is exponential growth（指数增长） coupled with fixed limits.
1. 3 Thinking About The Future
The basic pessimist model(悲观模型) The basic optimist model(乐观模型)

2. The Basic Pessimist Model
2.1 Conclusions of Pessimist Model 2.2 The Nature of the Model