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At the core of the issue are the legacy on-premises investments that many companies have already made in applications, tools, and infrastructure. Without a clear-cut plan to leverage them in the cloud, organizations often balk at the notion of having to invest yet again in those same solutions.There are several other obstacles that make the process of moving to the cloud more challenging:• When it comes to paying for cloud services, many cloud providers require companies to notify them in advance of the specific cloud services they’ll need, as well as how and where they’re going to run them. This can hamper business responsiveness and result in unpredictably higher operational costs.• With most cloud providers, shifting cloud spending to different platform and infrastructure services as a result of changes in business strategy is often complicated.• Complex cloud payment models from most cloud providers today give organizations limited visibility into (and control over) cloud spending.Many organizations today, while eager to move to the cloud, have concerns around the financial obstacles that often force them to decide between the flexibility of the cloud and the need to reduce costs and risk.Oracle’s new cloud programs, however, address these cloud-adoption challenges by making the journey to the cloud more affordable and by simplifying the way you purchase and consume cloud services. Specifically, Oracle has introduced two new programs for buying and using cloud services that help you get more value from your existing Oracle software investments with less complexity. These programs are Oracle Bring Your Own License (BYOL) to PaaS, and Oracle Universal Credits (UC).Together, these help accelerate your transition to the cloud for greater competitive advantage with tremendous choice and flexibility. Oracle has also lowered PaaS pricing (in some cases up to 94 percent cheaper versus the previous PaaS list price) and reduced IaaS list prices as low as Amazon’s, reducing barriers to cloud entry, as well as risk,for all sizes of businesses. Oracle has always had a BYOL program in placeto allow customers to bring on-premises licensesto Oracle IaaS. With this new extended BYOLprogram, on-premises software such as OracleDatabase and Oracle Middleware can now be portedto corresponding Oracle PaaS services at thenew reduced Oracle PaaS prices.In addition, Oracle Universal Credits make theconsumption of cloud services simple andflexible across PaaS and IaaS by using a singlecontract that doesn’t require you to notify Oracleof changes. You simply pay up front and consumeas you wish. In addition, you can use our UniversalCredits to purchase on-demand access to all currentand future Oracle PaaS and IaaS services (such asdatabase, integration, analytics, security, compute,and storage) with a pay-as-you-go model. You canpay even less by using prepaid pricing for as longas you need.This paper explains how you canbenefit from these new programsand leverage the high automation ofOracle Cloud to accelerate innovationand significantly lower your total costof ownership. Oracle’s new BYOLto PaaS and UC are available todayto support new or existing workloadsacross Oracle Cloud and OracleCloud at Customer.BYOL: License Mobility from On Premises to PaaSOracle BYOL allows you to apply licenses youown for on-premises software for equivalent, highly automated Oracle PaaS services in the cloud. Until now, Oracle customers had been limited to moving on-premises software investments only to IaaS. With this new program, however, licenses canbe used for corresponding Oracle PaaS services for 100 percent workload compatibility and license mobility in Oracle Cloud.Shifting Oracle database, middleware, and analytics licenses to Oracle PaaS provides the lowest possible TCO and greatest value for customers. That valueis further magnified by the power of Oracle Cloud versus the competition. Not only are Oracle IaaS list prices as low as Amazon Web Services’ (AWS), but Oracle Cloud also uses less compute and storage to run Oracle database workloads than AWS. This results in even greater savings. In addition,a large portion of the cost of running a database comes from labor rather than from infrastructure. These costs are reduced with Oracle PaaS, which offers advanced automation of processes and tools associated with the database to handleall sorts of complex configurations automatically. Additionally, Oracle PaaS services run not only on a standard cloud infrastructure; they can also run on a highly specialized database infrastructure (such as Oracle Exadata Cloud Service) givingyou even better performance and reliability.BYOL to PaaS also allows you to transfer your Oracle Multitenant 12c database license from your enterprisesubscription to new Oracle innovations (including the world’s first autonomous database cloud). Oracle Autonomous Data Warehouse Cloud leverages machine learning for automation for more savings.• Self-driving: Eliminates human labor to provision, secure, monitor, back up, recover, troubleshoot, and tune the database. Automatically upgrades and patches itself while running. Elastically grows and shrinks compute or storage without downtime, so you pay only for what you use.• Self-securing: Automatically encrypts all data. Provides automatic security updates with no downtime, along with protection from both external attacks and malicious internal users.• Self-repairing: Delivers automated protection from all planned and unplanned downtime.Oracle delivers lower TCOfor Oracle Autonomous DataWarehouse Cloud in Oraclepublic cloud compared torunning Oracle Database onAWS. A test running identicalfinancial analysis workloadsfound Amazon’s solution tobe 8.3× more expensive.Keynote Highlights, Oracle OpenWorld San Francisco 2017, video, /database/autonomous-database/guaranteed.html?bcid=5595335512001&playerType=single&size=eventsOracleAutonomous Data Warehouse Cloud; 16 OCPUStartStart$0.03Workload CompletedQueries Completed 5 of 5Time Elapsed 26sAWSOracle; i3.16Xlarge$0.25Workload CompletedQueries Completed 5 of 5Time Elapsed 282sInsurance Analysis WorkloadAmazon 8.3× More ExpensiveBYOL: License Mobility from On Premises to Cloud at CustomerOracle provides further choice with BYOL by allowing customers to apply on-premises licenses to Oracle Cloud at Customer, its solution for bringing allUniversal Credits: Flexible Buying and Consumption for PaaS and IaaSBeyond expanding BYOL, Oracle has dramatically eased the complexity of purchasing and consuming cloud services by introducingthe concept of Universal Credits (UC). These dramatically simplify how you purchase and consume cloud services by offering a single contract to acquire, expand, transfer, or cancel any and all current and future PaaS and IaaS services. Oracle BYOL and UC build upon Oracle’s commitment to delivering the world’s leading cloud solutions in the simplest, most efficient way for customers. Previously, Oracle introduced its Accelerated Buying Experience, which automates the end-to-end purchasing process, streamlining approvals, removing the need to spend endless cycles negotiating back and forth, and enabling you to order cloud services at the click of a button. The Accelerated Buying Experience is designedto speed time to value and simultaneously freeup resources. Using Oracle’s own SaaS applications, including Oracle Sales Cloud, Oracle Service Cloud, and Oracle Configure, Price, and Quote (CPQ) Cloud, Oracle can now complete orders efficiently and more quickly than ever before. Unlike many of its competitors, Oracle offersboth a fast and simple buying experience, and favorable terms across the broadest set of cloud services. Also, Oracle customers now need only oneagreement for their entire cloud relationship with us.To understand the differences between Oracle’s new Universal Credits and other cloud providers’, let’s look at a typical scenario where a customer buys US$1,000of credits with a provider. As an example, AWS customers need to notify Amazon in advance how they’re going to use those credits—on Redshift, in the West Coast data center, or in the East Coast data center. Customers also need to explain how much is going where, and how much they expect to consume. Based on that information, Amazon calculates a discount and generates a contract.By contrast, Oracle Universal Credits has a far simpler process. You simply commit to a certain amountof spend over a specific period of time (such as US$1,000 over the next 12 months). You aren’t required to determine how much is going to be spent on IaaS or PaaS, for example, or in which data center. You’re free to purchase, consume, or shift spending however you see fit over the course of the time period. Oracle determines which services you use and itemizes them against the purchased credits.• You specify individual servicesand quantities at contract/bookingfor reserved instances• The services and data center forprovisioning are locked into the initialorder for reserved instances• You may need to sell the reservedinstance on the secondary market,buy a new instance, then migrateto that new instance• A new order is required toutilize latest services• You select Monthly Flex and dollaramount at contract signing• You utilize any infrastructureand platform cloud serviceanywhere, anytime• You can switch services as neededwithout notifying Oracle• You can adopt the latest servicesas they’re released without signingan order documentBuying from AWS Buying from OracleThe credits also apply to any new services Oracle releases, such as Oracle Autonomous Database. With Oracle UC, you don’t need a new contract for new services. You simply select the service,and it’s applied against your Universal Credits. Universal Credits are applied to anything you want to use. Data can be moved, for example, from one data center to another without notifying Oracle.The Simplicity of Buyingand Consuming Cloud Services Oracle uniquely provides the most flexibility and choice for cloudpurchasing and consumption, with immediate business benefits:• Bring Your Own License (BYOL) empowersexisting customers with license mobility for OraclePaaS to exchange at new lower PaaS pricing• Universal Credits (UC) make contracts easy andconsumption flexible, allowing customers accessto all current and future PaaS and IaaS solutions• There’s the ability to upgrade PaaS andIaaS services using current subscription• You have access to new serviceswith current subscription• There’s elastic scaling of prepaidPaaS and IaaS instances• There is service portability acrossCloud at Customer and the public cloud• Lower list prices, higher performance, and moreautomation provide the industry’s lowest totalcost of ownershipCapitalize on Oracle Cloud Platform NowWith Oracle’s new BYOL and UC programs, it’s easier than ever for you to purchase and consume all current and future Oracle Cloud solutions. Oracle’s complete, open, secure, intelligent solutions provide maximum flexibility and choice for you to build your own unique path to the cloud rather than follow a provider’s cookie-cutter plan. Oracle’s broad and deep portfolio of services makes it possible for you to address any business challenge by moving to cloud, using emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, blockchain, chatbots, and more to shift your focus from maintaining IT investments to innovating new ways to compete and succeed.Move workloads.Oracle Cloud Platform provides the choice and freedom to sequence workload migrations however you’d like—from SaaS, PaaS, or IaaS. You can lift and shift apps, databases, and VMs to IaaS without the cost and complexity of manual migrations and rewrites. Or you can lift and shift workloads directly to PaaS, allowing you not only to retire infrastructure and reduce cost (some customers claim up to 60 percent reduction in TCO),but also get the benefits of automationso that you can focus on outcomes versusadministration. In addition, you can improveoverall application performance and leverageanalytics in the cloud.Develop and deploy.Oracle’s integrated, standards-based solutions fordeveloping and deploying apps are technology-agnostic,providing more choice for development environments.Built with DevOps in mind, Oracle includes automationtools for continuous deployment, with integrated securityand management tools for monitoring, compliance,and governance. Oracle also makes it possible to buildmodern cloud-native apps, including microservices, APIs,mobile apps, and chatbots.Connect and extend.Critical to supporting the journey to the cloud is providing a platform that allows customers to connect apps, data, APIs, and content across clouds and on premises. Oracle automates and orchestrates business processes across systems and applications, with the ability to extend capabilities, differentiate, and create modern experiences—for customers or employees.Insights for business transformation.Oracle Analytics Cloud allows customers to visualizebusiness performance by asking any question of any dataset, going beyond dashboards to see hidden signals and explore unanswered questions. Powerful predictive and modeling tools anticipate outcomes, asking what-if questions and quickly building and evaluating a range of possible scenarios. Oracle allows you to build enterprise data lakes to drive innovation and democratize data access. You can also leverage traditional and new data types to discover operational efficiencies and innovation.Modernize data management.Oracle’s integrated, comprehensive cloud platform manages any data (structured or unstructured) and supports any application with the ability to scale—from new custom apps to data warehousing to real-time analytics. It allows you to consolidate your database footprint to reduce costs, while also offering automated tooling for upgrading, patching, and provisioning that can improve productivity.Complete: Best-of-breed and integrated solutions in every cloud category—data, software, platform, and infrastructure Open: Standards-based platform that supports all workloads, apps, languages, and data typesSecure: Automatic, always-on encryption that extends throughout the entire cloud stack, all the way down to the silicon layer Choice: Flexible deployment options—public, private,Oracle Cloud at Customer, and hybrid cloudIntelligent: Artificial intelligence and machine learning in everycloud category—data, software, platform, and infrastructureCloud EssentialsOracle Cloud PlatformThousands of customers, including some of the。

人工智能（AI）革命外文翻译中英文英文The forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution:Its impact on society and firmsSpyros MakridakisAbstractThe impact of the industrial and digital (information) revolutions has, undoubtedly, been substantial on practically all aspects of our society, life, firms and employment. Will the forthcoming AI revolution produce similar, far-reaching effects? By examining analogous inventions of the industrial, digital and AI revolutions, this article claims that the latter is on target and that it would bring extensive changes that will also affect all aspects of our society and life. In addition, its impact on firms and employment will be considerable, resulting in richly interconnected organizations with decision making based on th e analysis and exploitation of “big” data and intensified, global competition among firms. People will be capable of buying goods and obtaining services from anywhere in the world using the Internet, and exploiting the unlimited, additional benefits that will open through the widespread usage of AI inventions. The paper concludes that significant competitive advantages will continue to accrue to those utilizing the Internet widely and willing to take entrepreneurial risks in order to turn innovative products/services into worldwide commercial success stories. The greatest challenge facing societies and firms would be utilizing the benefits of availing AI technologies, providing vast opportunities for both new products/services and immense productivity improvements while avoiding the dangers and disadvantages in terms of increased unemployment and greater wealth inequalities.Keywords：Artificial Intelligence (AI)，Industrial revolution，Digital revolution，AI revolution，Impact of AI revolution，Benefits and dangers of AI technologies The rise of powerful AI will be either the best or the worst thing ever to happento humanity. We do not yet know which.Stephen HawkingOver the past decade, numerous predictions have been made about the forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution and its impact on all aspects of our society, firms and life in general. This paper considers such predictions and compares them to those of the industrial and digital ones. A similar paper was written by this author and published in this journal in 1995, envisioning the forthcoming changes being brought by the digital (information) revolution, developing steadily at that time, and predicting its impact for the year 2015 (Makridakis, 1995). The current paper evaluates these 1995 predictions and their impact identifying hits and misses with the purpose of focusing on the new ones being brought by the AI revolution. It must be emphasized that the stakes of correctly predicting the impact of the AI revolution arefar reaching as intelligent machines may become our “final invention” that may end human supremacy (Barrat, 2013). There is little doubt that AI holds enormous potential as computers and robots will probably achieve, or come close to, human intelligence over the next twenty years becoming a serious competitor to all the jobs currently performed by humans and for the first time raising doubt over the end of human supremacy.This paper is organized into four parts. It first overviews the predictions made in the 1995 paper for the year 2015, identifying successes and failures and concluding that major technological developments (notably the Internet and smartphones) were undervalued while the general trend leading up to them was predicted correctly. Second, it investigates existing and forthcoming technological advances in the field of AI and the ability of computers/machines to acquire real intelligence. Moreover, it summarizes prevailing, major views of how AI may revolutionize practically everything and its impact on the future of humanity. The third section sums up the impact of the AI revolution and describes the four major scenarios being advocated, as well as what could be done to avoid the possible negative consequences of AI technologies. The fourth section discusses how firms will be affected by these technologies that will transform the competitive landscape, how start-up firms are founded and the way success can be achieved. Finally, there is a brief concluding section speculating about the future of AI and its impact on our society, life, firms and employment.1. The 1995 paper: hits and missesThe 1995 paper (Makridakis, 1995) was written at a time when the digital (at that time it was called information) revolution was progressing at a steady rate. The paper predicted that by 2015 “the information revolution should be in full swing” and that “computers/communications” would be in widespread use, whi ch has actually happened, although its two most important inventions (the Internet and smartphones) and their significant influence were not foreseen as such. Moreover, the paper predicted that “a single computer (but not a smartphone) can, in addition to its traditional tasks, also become a terminal capable of being used interactively for the following:” (p. 804–805)• Picture phone and teleconference• Television and videos• Music• Shopping• On line banking and financial services• Reservations• Medic al advice• Access to all types of services• Video games• Other games (e.g., gambling, chess etc.)• News, sports and weather reports• Access to data banksThe above have all materialized and can indeed be accessed by computer,although the extent of their utilization was underestimated as smartphones are now being used widely. For instance, the ease of accessing and downloading scientific articles on one's computer in his/her office or home would have seemed like science fiction back in 1995, when finding such articles required spending many hours in the library (often in its basement for older publications) and making photocopies to keep them for later use. Moreover, having access, from one's smartphone or tablet, to news from anywhere in the world, being able to subscribe to digital services, obtain weather forecasts, purchase games, watch movies, make payments using smartphones and a plethora of other, useful applications was greatly underestimated, while the extensive use of the cloud for storing large amounts of data for free was not predicted at all at that time. Even in 1995 when the implications of Moore's law leading to increasing computer speed and storage while reducing costs were well known, nevertheless, it was hard to imagine that in 2016 there would be 60 trillion web pages, 2.5 billion smartphones, more than 2 billion personal computers and 3.5 billion Google searches a day.The paper correctly predicted “as wireless telecommunications will be possible the above list of capabilities can be accessed from anywhere in the world without the need for regular telephone lines”. What the 1995 paper missed, however, was that in 2015 top smartphones, costing less than €500, would be as powerful as the 1995 supercomputer, allowing access to the Internet and all tasks that were only performed by expensive computers at that time, including an almost unlimited availability of new, powerful apps providing a large array of innovative services that were not imagined twenty years ago. Furthermore, the paper correctly predicted super automation leading to unattended factories stating that “by 2015 there will be little need for people to do repetitive manual or mental tasks”. It also foresaw the decline of large industrial firms, increased global competition and the drop in the percentage of labour force employed in agriculture and manufacturing (more on these predictions in the section The Impact of the AI Revolution on Firms). It missed however the widespread utilization of the Internet (at that time it was a text only service), as well as search engines (notably Google), social networking sites(notably Facebook) and the fundamental changes being brought by the widespread use of Apple's iPhone, Samsung's Galaxy and Google's Android smartphones. It is indeed surprising today to see groups of people in a coffee shop or restaurant using their smartphones instead of speaking to each other and young children as little as three or four years of age playing with phones and tablets. Smartphones and tablets connected to the Internet through Wi-Fi have influenced social interactions to a significant extent, as well as the way we search for information, use maps and GPS for finding locations, and make payments. These technologies were not predicted in the 1995 paper.2. Towards the AI revolutionThe 1995 paper referred to Say, the famous French economist, who wrote in 1828 about the possibility of cars as substitutes for horses:“Nevertheless no machine will ever be able to perform what even the worst horses can - the service of carrying people and goods through the bustle and throng of a great city.” (p. 800)Say could never have dreamed of, in his wildest imagination, self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, Skype calls, super computers, smartphones or intelligent robots. Technologies that seemed like pure science fiction less than 190 years ago are available today and some like self-driving vehicles will in all likelihood be in widespread use within the next twenty years. The challenge is to realistically predict forthcoming AI technologies without falling into the same short-sighted trap of Say and others, including my 1995 paper, unable to realize the momentous, non-linear advancements of new technologies. There are two observations to be made.First, 190 years is a brief period by historical standards and during this period we went from horses being the major source of transportation to self-driving cars and from the abacus and slide rules to powerful computers in our pockets. Secondly, the length of time between technological inventions and their practical, widespread use is constantly being reduced. For instance, it took more than 200 years from the time Newcomen developed the first workable steam engine in 1707 to when Henry Ford built a reliable and affordable car in 1908. It took more than 90 years between the time electricity was introduced and its extensive use by firms to substantially improve factory productivity. It took twenty years, however, between ENIAC, the first computer, and IBM's 360 system that was mass produced and was affordable by smaller business firms while it took only ten years between 1973 when Dr Martin Cooper made the first mobile call from a handheld device and its public launch by Motorola. The biggest and most rapid progress, however, took place with smartphones which first appeared in 2002 and saw a stellar growth with the release of new versions possessing substantial improvements every one or two years by the likes of Apple, Samsung and several Chinese firms. Smartphones, in addition to their technical features, now incorporate artificial intelligence characteristics that include understanding speech, providing customized advice in spoken language, completing words when writing a text and several other functions requiring embedded AI, provided by a pocket computer smaller in size than a pack of cigarettes.From smart machines to clever computers and to Artificial Intelligence (AI) programs: A thermostat is a simple mechanical device exhibiting some primitive but extremely valuable type of intelligence by keeping temperatures constant at some desired, pre-set level. Computers are also clever as they can be instructed to make extremely complicated decisions taking into account a large number of factors and selection criteria, but like thermostats such decisions are pre-programmed and based on logic, if-then rules and decision trees that produce the exact same results, as long as the input instructions are alike. The major advantage of computers is their lightning speed that allows them to perform billions of instructions per second. AI, on the other hand, goes a step further by not simply applying pre-programmed decisions, but instead exhibiting some learning capabilities.The story of the Watson computer beating Jeopardy's two most successful contestants is more complicated, since retrieving the most appropriate answer out of the 200 million pages of information stored in its memory is not a sign of real intelligence as it relied on its lightning speed to retrieve information in seconds. What is more challenging according to Jennings, one of Jeopardy's previous champions, is“to read clues in a natural language, understand puns and the red herrings, to unpack just the meaning of the clue” (May, 2013). Similarly, it is a sign of intelligence to improve it s performance by “playing 100 games against past winners”. (Best, 2016). Watson went several steps beyond Deep Blue towards AI by being able to understand spoken English and learn from his mistakes (New Yorker, 2016). However, he was still short of AlphaGo that defeated Go Champions in a game that cannot be won simply by using “brute force” as the number of moves in this game is infinite, requiring the program to use learning algorithms that can improve its performance as it plays more and more gamesComputers and real learning: According to its proponents, “the main focus of AI research is in teaching computers to think for themselves and improvise solutions to common problems” (Clark, 2015). But many doubt that computers can learn to think for themselves even though they can display signs of intelligence. David Silver, an AI scientist working at DeepMind, explained that “even though AlphaGo has affectively rediscovered the most subtle concepts of Go, its knowledge is implicit. The computer parse out these concepts –they simply emerge from its statistical comparisons of types of winning board positions at GO” (Chouard, 2016). At the same time Cho Hyeyeon, one of the strongest Go players in Korea commented that “AlphaGo seems like it knows everything!” while others believe that “AlphaGo is likely to start a ‘new revolution’ in the way we play Go”as “it is seeking simply to maximize its probability of reaching winning positions, rather than as human players tend to do –maximize territorial gains” (Chouard, 2016). Does it matter, as Silver said, that AlphaGo's knowledge of the game is implicit as long as it can beat the best players? A more serious issue is whether or not AlphaGo's ability to win games with fixed rules can extend to real life settings where not only the rules are not fixed, but they can change with time, or from one situation to another.From digital computers to AI tools: The Intel Pentium microprocessor, introduced in 1993, incorporated graphics and music capabilities and opened computers up to a large number of affordable applications extending beyond just data processing. Such technologies signalled the beginning of a new era that now includes intelligent personal assistants understanding and answering natural languages, robots able to see and perform an array of intelligent functions, self-driving vehicles and a host of other capabilities which were until then an exclusive human ability. The tech optimists ascertain that in less than 25 years computers went from just manipulating 0 and 1 digits, to utilizing sophisticated neural networkalgorithms that enable vision and the understanding and speaking of natural languages among others. Technology optimists therefore maintain there is little doubt that in the next twenty years, accelerated AI technological progress will lead to a breakthrough, based on deep learning that imitates the way young children learn, rather than the laborious instructions by tailor-made programs aimed for specific applications and based on logic, if-then rules and decision trees (Parloff, 2016).For instance, DeepMind is based on a neural program utilizing deep learning that teaches itself how to play dozens of Atari games, such as Breakout, as well or better than humans, without specific instructions for doing so, but by playing thousands ofgames and improving itself each time. This program, trained in a different way, became the AlphaGo that defeated GO champion Lee Sodol in 2016. Moreover, it will form the core of a new project to learn to play Starcraft, a complicated game based on both long term strategy as well as quick tactical decisions to stay ahead of an opponent, which DeepMind plans to be its next target for advancing deep learning (Kahn, 2016). Deep learning is an area that seems to be at the forefront of research and funding efforts to improve AI, as its successes have sparked a burst of activity in equity funding that reached an all-time high of more than $1 billion with 121 projects for start-ups in the second quarter of 2016, compared to 21 in the equivalent quarter of 2011 (Parloff, 2016).Google had two deep learning projects underway in 2012. Today it is pursuing more than 1000, according to their spokesperson, in all its major product sectors, including search, Android, Gmail, translation, maps, YouTube, and self-driving cars (The Week, 2016). IBM's Watson system used AI, but not deep learning, when it beat the two Jeopardy champions in 2011. Now though, almost all of Watson's 30 component services have been augmented by deep learning. Venture capitalists, who did not even know what deep learning was five years ago, today are wary of start-ups that do not incorporate it into their programs. We are now living in an age when it has become mandatory for people building sophisticated software applications to avoid click through menus by incorporating natural-language processing tapping deep learning (Parloff, 2016).How far can deep learning go? There are no limits according to technology optimists for three reasons. First as progress is available to practically everyone to utilize through Open Source software, researchers will concentrate their efforts on new, more powerful algorithms leading to cumulative learning. Secondly, deep learning algorithms will be capable of remembering what they have learned and apply it in similar, but different situations (Kirkpatrick et al., 2017). Lastly and equally important, in the future intelligent computer programs will be capable of writing new programs themselves, initially perhaps not so sophisticated ones, but improving with time as learning will be incorporated to be part of their abilities. Kurzweil (2005) sees nonbiological intelligence to match the range and subtlety of human intelligence within a quarter of a century and what he calls “Singularity” to occur by 2045, b ringing “the dawning of a new civilization that will enable us to transcend our biological limitations and amplify our creativity. In this new world, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine, real reality and virtual reality”.For some people these predictions are startling, with far-reaching implications should they come true. In the next section, four scenarios associated with the AI revolution are presented and their impact on our societies, life work and firms is discussed.3. The four AI scenariosUntil rather recently, famines, wars and pandemics were common, affecting sizable segments of the population, causing misery and devastation as well as a large number of deaths. The industrial revolution considerably increased the standards of living while the digital one maintained such rise and also shifted employment patterns,resulting in more interesting and comfortable office jobs. The AI revolution is promising even greater improvements in productivity and further expansion in wealth. Today more and more people, at least in developed countries, die from overeating rather than famine, commit suicide instead of being killed by soldiers, terrorists and criminals combined and die from old age rather than infectious disease (Harari, 2016). Table 1 shows the power of each revolution with the industrial one aiming at routine manual tasks, the digital doing so to routine mental ones and AI aiming at substituting, supplementing and/or amplifying practically all tasks performed by humans. The cri tical question is: “what will the role of humans be at a time when computers and robots could perform as well or better andmuch cheaper, practically all tasks that humans do at present?” There are four scenarios attempting to answer this question.The Optimists: Kurzweil and other optimists predict a “science fiction”, utopian future with Genetics, Nanotechnology and Robotics (GNR) revolutionizing everything, allowing humans to harness the speed, memory capacities and knowledge sharing ability of computers and our brain being directly connected to the cloud. Genetics would enable changing our genes to avoid disease and slow down, or even reverse ageing, thus extending our life span considerably and perhaps eventually achieving immortality. Nanotechnology, using 3D printers, would enable us to create virtually any physical product from information and inexpensive materials bringing an unlimited creation of wealth. Finally, robots would be doing all the actual work, leaving humans with the choice of spending their time performing activities of their choice and working, when they want, at jobs that interest them.The Pessimists: In a much quoted article from Wired magazine in 2000, Bill Joy (Joy, 2000) wrote “Our most powerful 21st-century technologies –robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech –are threatening to make humans an endangered species”. Joy pointed out that as machines become more and more intelligent and as societal problems become more and more complex, people will let machines make all the important decisions for them as these decisions will bring better results than those made by humans. This situation will, eventually, result in machines being in effective control of all important decisions with people dependent on them and afraid to make their own choices. Joy and many other scientists (Cellan-Jones, 2014) and philosophers (Bostrom, 2014) believe that Kurzweil and his supporters vastly underestimate the magnitude of the challenge and the potential dangers which can arise from thinking machines and intelligent robots. They point out that in the utopian world of abundance, where all work will be done by machines and robots, humans may be reduced to second rate status (some saying the equivalent of computer pets) as smarter than them computers and robots will be available in large numbers and people will not be motivated to work, leaving computers/robots to be in charge of making all important decisions. It may not be a bad world, but it will definitely be a different one with people delegated to second rate status.Harari is the newest arrival to the ranks of pessimists. His recent book (Harari, 2016, p. 397) concludes with the following three statements:• “Science is converging to an all-encompassing dogma, which says thatorganisms are algorithm s, and life is data processing”• “Intelligence is decoupling from consciousness”• “Non-conscious but highly intelligent algorithms may soon know us better than we know ourselves”Consequently, he asks three key questions (which are actually answered by the above three statements) with terrifying implications for the future of humanity: • “Are organisms really just algorithms, and is life just data processing?”• “What is more valuable –intelligence or consciousness?”• “What will happen to society, polit ics and daily life when non-conscious but highly intelligent algorithms know us better than we know ourselves?”Harari admits that nobody really knows how technology will evolve or what its impact will be. Instead he discusses the implications of each of his three questions: • If indeed organisms are algorithms then thinking machines utilizing more efficient ones than those by humans will have an advantage. Moreover, if life is just data processing then there is no way to compete with computers that can consult/exploit practically all available information to base their decisions.• The non-conscious algorithms Google search is based on the consultation of millions of possible entries and often surprise us by their correct recommendations. The implications that similar, more advanced algorithms than those utilized by Google search will be developed (bearing in mind Google search is less than twenty years old) in the future and be able to access all available information from complete data bases are far reachi ng and will “provide us with better information than we could expect to find ourselves”.• Humans are proud of their consciousness, but does it matter that self-driving vehicles do not have one, but still make better decisions than human drivers, as can be confirmed by their significantly lower number of traffic accidents?When AI technologies are further advanced and self-driving vehicles are in widespread use, there may come a time that legislation may be passed forbidding or restricting human driving, even though that may still be some time away according to some scientists (Gomes, 2014). Clearly, self-driving vehicles do not exceed speed limits, do not drive under the influence of alcohol or drugs, do not get tired, do not get distracted by talking on the phone or sending SMS or emails and in general make fewer mistakes than human drivers, causing fewer accidents. There are two implications if humans are not allowed to drive. First, there will be a huge labour displacement for the 3.5 million unionized truck drivers in the USA and the 600 thousand ones in the UK (plus the additional number of non-unionized ones) as well as the more than one million taxi and Uber drivers in these two countries. Second, and more importantly, it will take away our freedom of driving, admitting that computers are superior to us. Once such an admission is accepted there will be no limits to letting computers also make a great number of other decisions, like being in charge of nuclear plants, setting public policies or deciding on optimal economic strategies as their biggest advantage is their objectivity and their ability to make fewer mistakes than humans.One can go as far as suggesting letting computers choose Presidents/PrimeMinisters and elected officials using objective criteria rather than having people voting emotionally and believing the unrealistic promises that candidates make. Although such a suggestion will never be accepted, at least not in the near future, it has its merits since people often choose the wrong candidate and later regret their choice after finding out that pre-election promises were not only broken, but they were even reversed. Critics say if computers do eventually become in charge of making all important decisions there will be little left for people to do as they will be demoted to simply observing the decisions made by computers, the same way as being a passenger in a car driven by a computer, not allowed to take control out of the fear of causing an accident. As mentioned before, this could lead to humans eventually becoming computers’ pets.The pragmatists: At present the vast majority of views about the future implications of AI are negative, concerned with its potential dystopian consequences (Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, says it is like “summoning the demon” and calls the consequences worse than what nuclear weapons can do). There are fewer optimists and only a couple of pragmatists like Sam Altman and Michio Kaku (Peckham, 2016) who believe that AI technologies can be controlled through “OpenAI” and effective regulation. The ranks of pragmatists also includes John Markoff (Markoff, 2016) who pointed out that the AI field can be distinguished by two categories: The first trying to duplicate human intelligence and the second to augment it by expanding human abilities exploiting the power of computers in order to augment human decision making. Pragmatists mention chess playing where the present world champion is neither a human nor a computer but rather humans using laptop computers (Baraniuk, 2015). Their view is that we could learn to exploit the power of computers to augment our own skills and always stay a step ahead of AI, or at least not be at a disadvantage. The pragmatists also believe that in the worst of cases a chip can be placed in all thinking machines/robots to render them inoperative in case of any danger. By concentrating research efforts on intelligence augmentation, they claim we can avoid or minimize the possible danger of AI while providing the means to stay ahead in the race against thinking machines and smart robots.The doubters: The doubters do not believe that AI is possible and that it will ever become a threat to humanity. Dreyfus (1972), its major proponent, argues that human intelligence and expertise cannot be replicated and captured in formal rules. He believes that AI is a fad promoted by the computer industry. He points out to the many predictions that did not materialize such as those made by Herbert A. Simon in 1958 that “a computer would be the world's chess champion within ten years” and those made in 1965 that “machines will be capable within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do” (Crevier, 1993). Dreyfus claims that Simon's optimism was totally unwarranted as they were based on false assumptions that human intelligence is based on an information processing viewpoint as our mind is nothing like a computer. Although, the doubters’ criticisms may have been valid in the last century, they cannot stand for the new developments in AI. Deep Blue became the world's chess champion in 1997 (missing Simon's forecast by twenty one years) while we are not far today from machines being capable of doing all the work that humans can do (missing。

大学体验英语综合教程3文章翻译关于大学体验英语综合教程是我们曾经还在学校的时候看的，但是走出学校之后，再看是一种什么样的感觉?有些酸也有些甜!下面是店铺为大家整理的关于大学体验英语综合教程3文章翻译的相关资料，供您参考!大学体验英语综合教程3文章翻译篇1：Frog Story 蛙的故事A couple of odd things have happened lately. 最近发生了几桩怪事儿。

I have a log cabin in those woods of Northern Wisconsin. I built it by hand and also added a greenhouse to the front of it. It is a joy to live in. In fact, I work out of my home doing audio production and environmental work. As a tool of that trade I have a computer and a studio. 我在北威斯康星州的树林中有一座小木屋。

是我亲手搭建的，前面还有一间花房。

住在里面相当惬意。

实际上我是在户外做音频制作和环境方面的工作——作为干这一行的工具，我还装备了一间带电脑的工作室。

I also have a tree frog that has taken up residence in my studio. 还有一只树蛙也在我的工作室中住了下来。

How odd, I thought, last November when I first noticed him sitting atop my sound-board over my computer.I figured that he(and I say he,though I really don’t have a clue if she is a he or vice versa) would be more comfortable in the greenhouse. So I put him in the greenhouse. Back he came. And stayed. After a while I got quite used to the fact that as I would check my morning email and online news, he would be there with me surveying the world. 去年十一月，我第一次惊讶地发现他(只是这样称呼罢了，事实上我并不知道该称“他”还是“她”)坐在电脑的音箱上。

题型三阅读理解【选择型阅读】( A )(2019德阳) Personal computers and the Internet give people new choices about how to spend their time.Some may use this freedom to share less time with certain friends or family members,but the new technology will also let them communicate more with those they care most about.I know this from personal experience.Email makes it easy to work at home.I spend most weekends and evenings at home.My working hours aren’t much shorter than they once were but I spend fewer of them at the office.This lets me share more time with my young daughter than I might have if she’d been born before email became such a practical tool.The Internet also makes it easy to share ideas with a group of friends.Say you do something fun—see a great movie perhaps and there are four or five friends who might want to hear about it.If you use a telephone to call each one,you may tire of telling the story.With email,you just write one note about your experience,at your convenience,and send it to all the friends you think might be interested.They can read your message when they have time,and read only as they want to.They can reply at their convenience,and you can read what they have to say at your convenience.Email is also an inexpensive way to communicate with people who live far away.More than a few parents use email to communicate with their children at college every day.We just have to keep in mind that computers and the Internet offer another way of communicating.They don’t take the place of any of the ways.( C )1.The use of E-mail has made it possible for the writer to .A.spend more time at the officeB.spend much less time workingC.have more free time with his childD.work at home all weekends and evenings( D )2.According to the writer,what is the advantage of email over the telephone?A.The user can send much more information than the telephone.B.The user can keep the communication as personal as possible.C.The user can communicate with the friends faster than the telephone.D.The user can send messages to a group of people at the same time.( A )3.What does the underlined word “convenience”mean in Chinese?A.方便B.信心C.自由D.忙碌( B )4.What’s the main idea of this passage?A.Email is not an expensive way to communicate with people far away.puters and the Internet make communication more convenient.C.Email makes it easier for people to live at home and work at the office.puters and the Internet are useful tools to keep good friendship.( B )(2019绵阳) Chinese companies lead in global 5G patent applications(专利应用) with Huawei taking the crown,according to a report by IPlytics,an authorized patent datacompany.Three companies from China were included in the top 10 list of 5GStandards-Essential Patents (SEPs) family owners.Huawei ranked first.ZET Corp.and China Academy of Telecommunications Technology(CATT) grabbed fifth and ninth places,respectively.Chinese companies topped the list for most 5G SEPs applications in communication systems by the end of April 2019,accounting for 34 percent of the world’s total.Chinese tech giant Huawei has taken a leading role by owning 15 percent of SEPs,according to the report “Who Is Leading the 5G Patent Race?”5G SEPs are patents that any company will have to use when carrying out 5G technology and no one can avoid them.Different from 3G and 4G technologies,5G technology will influence various industries and encourage the appearance of many new products,services and industries.The automotive sector will most likely be one of the first industries to depend on5G,which will connect vehicles to other vehicles,roadsides,traffic lights,buildings and the Internet,according to the report.“It is 5G that is going to be a huge jump forward for communication systems because only with 5G’s higher bandwidth can a number of applications be more advanced(尖端的) and used by most consumers,”said Nicole Peng,senior director of the market research company Canalys.As 5G technology has combined various industries and technologies,the number of 5G SEPs rose to more than 60,000 globally by the end of April 2019,the report said.( C )1.What does“taking the crown”probably mean in Paragraph 1?A.becoming the next kingB.finishing the task betterC.being in the first placeD.wearing the hat of the king( A )2.Which one was NOT on the top 10 list of 5G SEPs?A.Canalys.B.Huawei.C.ZET Corp.D.CATT.( C )3.What is the main idea of the first two paragraphs?A.No companies can avoid 5G SEPs.B.IPlytics is an important data company.C.Chinese companies lead the 5G patent race.D.China owned 34% of the world’s 5G SEPs applications.( D )4.What does Nicole Peng think of 5G?A.Various industries will be helpful for 5G a lot.B.Many applications will make 5G more advanced.C.5G will be used by many most advanced consumers.D.5G will make great progress in communication systems.( C )5.What can you get out of the passage?A.5G will be first used by the industry of the automotive sector.B.Various industries and farming will be mostly influenced by 5G.C.5G will motivate many new products,services,and industries to appear.D.More than 6 thousand 5G SEPs had been used by the end of April 2019.( C )(2019深圳) Alice Lee is a high school student studying at a private school.She is doing some voluntary work at an after-school program to help students’from poor families.On the first day of her work,she noticed that many kids were lining up for free sandwiches and fruits.She was surprised.One of the organizers explains that many of these students don’t get enough to eat at home.So a school lunch or an after-meal might be the most food they would get all the day.She has also been told that some hungry kids can receive free lunches,but others are only allowed reduced-price meals,and those students’family have to pay for the part of their food.Lee was shocked,she decided to offer help to those who are suffering from hunger.“I want other kids to understand that if you see a problem,you don’t have to wait to be an adult to fix it,”says Lee.She and a group of friends are using their programme skill to create a new app called Food of Thought,which will allow parents,students,and even kind-hearted strangers to donate money to lunch accounts for students in a nearby school.( A )1.What did Alice Lee see on the first day of her volunteer work?A.Children lining up for free food.B.Children buying sandwiches and fruit.C.Children learning cooking instructions.D Children doing voluntary work.( C )2.Who should pay for the half-priced food?A.all the hungry childrenB.kind-hearted strangersC.some poor familiesD.primary school students( C )3.What was she doing to help the poor kids?A.She taught them for free.B.She opened a lunch account.C.She developed an app to help them.D.She offered free food.( B )4.What’s the main idea of this passage?A.A local school is providing free food for students.B.A girl is helping poor kids out of hunger.C.An app will be tested in a school this fall.D.A group of good friends are working at a school.( D )(2019河北)Tony,a nine-year-old kid,is sitting at his desk when suddenly he wets (尿湿) his pants.He thinks his heart is going to stop because he cannot possibly know how this has happened.It has never happened before.He knows the after-effect(后果)—When the boys find out,he will never hear the end of it.When the girls find out,they’ll never speak to him again as long as he lives.Tony puts his head down and says to himself,“Oh,no.What can I do?I need help now!”He looks up and notices the teacher coming,with a look in her eyes that says he has been discovered.As the teacher is walking to him,a classmate named Emily is carrying a glass that is full of water.Emily falls down in front of the teacher and drops the glass of water in Tony’s pants.Tony seems to be angry,but all the while he is saying to himself,“Thank you,Dear! Thank you,Dear!”Now all of a sudden,instead of being the person that everyone laughs at,Tony is the person of sympathy(同情).The person that everyone laughs at should be him,but now it is Emily.She tries to help,but they tell her,“You’ve done enough,you stupid!”At the end of the day,as they are waiting for the bus,Tony walks over to Emily and says in a low voice,“You did that on purpose,didn’t you?”Emily says back in a quiet voice,“I wet my pants once,too.”( A )1.What does Tony think the other boys will do if they find out the fact?A.They’ll laugh at him.B.They’ll tell the teacher about it.C.They’ll try to help him.D.They’ll never speak to him again.( A )2.Which is right according to the passage?A.Emily drops the water on purpose.B.Tony is really angry with Emily.C.Tony and Emily don’t go home by bus.D.Tony and Emily aren’t classmates.( D )3.We know that Emily is a girl from the passage.A.careless and lazyB.quiet and brightC.stupid and helplessD.kind and smart( E )(2019咸宁) The year 2022 will be a big year for sports in China.That’s because it will hold not only the 24th Winter Olympics in Beijing,but also the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou.On Aug.6th,2018,the official emblem (会徽) for the Hangzhou Asian Games was released (发布).The city won the hosting rights for the 2022 Asian Games in 2015.It will be the third Chinese city to host the Asian Games after Beijing and Guangzhou in 1990 and 2010.First held in 1951,the Asian Games is the largest multi-sport event in Asia.It also means a lot to China.The Beijing Asian Games was the first large international sports event to be hosted by China,China News Service reported.To make the Games a great success,Chinese people worked hard to prepare.Beijing built a great number of roads and gyms,including the famous Beijing Olympic Sports Center and Asian Games Village.The Games helped the world see China and its achievements.Since then,China has improved its global image (国际形象),China Youth Daily reported.For the 2022 Asian Games,Hangzhou has already started building 33 sports venues (场馆),according to China Youth Daily.The themes of the Hangzhou Asian Games are “green,smart,economical (节俭) and civilized”.All the Games’buildings will be environmentally friendly.( A )1.Which city will host the 2022 Asian Games?A.Hangzhou.B.Guangzhou.C.Shanghai.D.Beijing.( B )2.What does the underlined word “themes”mean in the last paragraph?A.意义B.主题C.内涵D.标题( D )3.According to the passage,how did the Beijing Asian Games influence China?A.It improved China’s economy (经济).B.It helped China attract more tourists.C.Guangzhou built a lot of roads and gyms.D.It helped the world see China and its achievements.( C )4.Which of the following is NOT TRUE according to the passage?A.The first Asian Games was held in 1951.B.Beijing will hold the 24th Winter Olympics in 2022.C.China has already hosted the Asian Games three times.D.All the 19th Asian Games’buildings will be environmentally friendly.( B )5.What is the main idea of the passage?A.How to prepare for the Asian Games.B.The development of the Asian Games in China.C.Why China wants to host the 19th Asian Games.D.How the 19th Asian Games emblem was designed.( F )(2019河南) Thousands of years ago,Britain was covered by thick forests,home to many animals which no longer live in the United Kingdom.There were wolves and bears,many different kinds of deer and large wild cows.There were less than four million people.They lived in small villages protected by wooden walls from the animals outside.All this has changed,of course.Now the population of the United Kingdom has increased to sixty-five million.Three-quarters of Britain is covered with fields,towns or cities.Although 25 percent of land is countryside,new methods of farming mean that there are fewer birds and small animals living in fields than ever before.The United Kingdom is one of the few countries in the world that does not have a large wild animal that eats meat.In Scotland there are only 400 wildcats,but these are much smaller than wolves.Some people would like to change things,however! Some organizations and writers say that Britain needs to become more natural again.They suggest that trees and plants that grew in the UK before towns and cities were built should be allowed to growagain.They even say that large wild animals which have not lived in the UK should be helped to return and live wild.They call this “rewilding”.Not everyone agrees.In the last twenty years,over one million trees which at first grew in Scotland have been planted and there are plans for more—but wild animals?Some people ask if wolves will attack sheep or even humans.They are also angry that rewilding might mean an end to walking in the hills which so many people enjoy.So far there are no wolves or bears in Britain’s forests—but soon there might be!根据材料内容选择最佳答案。

人工智能对未来工作的影响,英文作文Artificial Intelligence and the Future of WorkThe rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked a growing debate about the impact of this technology on the future of work. As AI systems become more sophisticated and capable of performing an increasingly wide range of tasks, concerns have been raised about the potential displacement of human workers and the changing nature of employment.One of the most significant ways in which AI is expected to affect the job market is through the automation of routine and repetitive tasks. Many jobs, particularly in industries such as manufacturing, transportation, and administrative support, involve repetitive and predictable processes that can be easily automated by AI-powered systems. This automation can lead to increased efficiency, reduced costs, and higher productivity, but it also raises the specter of job losses as machines replace human workers in these roles.However, the impact of AI on employment is not limited to the displacement of jobs. AI can also create new job opportunities by enabling the development of entirely new industries and sectors. Forexample, the rise of autonomous vehicles has led to the emergence of new careers in fields such as fleet management, data analysis, and software development. Similarly, the growing demand for AI-powered applications and services has created a need for specialized roles in areas like machine learning, natural language processing, and computer vision.Moreover, AI can also enhance and augment human capabilities in the workplace, rather than simply replacing them. By taking over routine and repetitive tasks, AI can free up human workers to focus on more complex, creative, and strategic tasks that require human judgment, problem-solving, and decision-making abilities. This can lead to increased productivity, innovation, and job satisfaction, as workers are able to devote more time to higher-value activities.Despite these potential benefits, the transition to an AI-driven workforce is not without its challenges. One of the primary concerns is the need for workers to acquire new skills and adapt to the changing job market. As AI transforms the nature of work, employees will need to continuously learn and develop new competencies to remain competitive and relevant. This may require significant investments in education, training, and lifelong learning programs to help workers acquire the necessary skills and knowledge.Another challenge is the potential for AI to exacerbate existingsocioeconomic inequalities. If the benefits of AI-driven automation and productivity gains are not equitably distributed, they may disproportionately benefit the owners of capital and the highly skilled, while leaving lower-skilled and marginalized workers behind. This could lead to increased income inequality, social unrest, and political tensions, requiring policymakers to address these issues through targeted interventions and policies.Despite these challenges, the overall impact of AI on the future of work is likely to be a complex and multifaceted one. While some jobs may be displaced, new ones will emerge, and the nature of work itself will continue to evolve. The key will be to ensure that the transition to an AI-driven workforce is managed in a way that maximizes the benefits for both workers and employers, while mitigating the potential negative consequences.This will require a collaborative effort between policymakers, businesses, educational institutions, and workers to develop strategies and policies that foster the responsible development and deployment of AI, support workers in acquiring new skills, and ensure that the benefits of technological progress are shared equitably across society.。

Chapter 2 Boiler第二章锅炉Air heater 空预器Commissioning 试运行Anchor 支座，固定Compressor 压缩机、压气机Anhydrous ammonia 无水氨Condenser 凝汽器Anthracite 无烟煤Containment 反应堆安全壳Atomized 雾化Convection 对流Austenitic 奥氏体钢Coolant 制冷剂Auxialiary 辅助机械Coordinated 坐标，定位Axis 轴Corten低合金耐腐蚀钢Bagasse 甘蔗渣Counterflow 逆流（换热器）Bare tube 光管Creep strength 蠕变强度Bark 树皮Criterion 标准Beam 梁，横梁Critical pressure 临界压力Bituminous coal 烟煤Culm 煤屑Blade 叶片Cyclone furnace 旋风炉Blast 鼓风Debris 残骸、有机残留物Blowdown 排污Decane 癸烷Boiler 锅炉Decay 分解Bulk 大块的Deposited 沉积，沉淀的Burner zone 燃烧器区域Deterioration 恶化Butane 丁烷Diesel oil 柴油Calcination 煅烧Differential 差动，微分Capacity 出力Distillate 馏出物Carbon steel 碳钢Distortion 变形Cerium 铈Division wall 分隔墙，双面水冷壁Chromium 铬Drainage 疏水Circulating fluidized bed CFB 循环流化Drum 汽包床锅炉Coal char 煤焦Dwell time 保留时间Cogenerator 热电联产机组Economizer 省煤器Combustion 燃烧Embrittlement 脆性，脆化Equalization 均衡，平衡Ingress进口，入口Erosive 侵蚀的，腐蚀的In-line 顺列Ethane 乙烷Inorganic 无机的Evaluate 评估，评价Ion 离子Evaporate 蒸发Jurisdiction 权限Excess air 过量空气Lignite 褐煤Extended surface 扩展受热面Lime 石灰Fatigue 疲劳Limestone 石灰石Feedwater 给谁Low alloy 低合金钢Ferrite 铁素体Low-volatile 低挥发分的Fin 鳍片，肋片Margin 裕量，安全系数Flange 法兰Matrix 矩阵Flue gas 烟气Membrane 膜Fouling 沾污Methane 甲烷Furnace 炉膛Mill 磨煤机Generator 发电机Molecule 分子Geological 地质的Molten 熔化Girth 环形Nitric oxide 氮氧化物Govern 控制、调节Nonpressure 非承压的Gravity 重力Nontoxic 无毒的Header 联箱，集箱Organisms 有机体Helical 螺旋状的Oxidation 氧化Helium 氦Peat 泥煤Heterogeneous 不均匀的Pendants superheat platen悬吊式屏式过热器Hopper 斗，料斗Pentane 戊烷Husk 壳，外壳Petrochemical 石油化工制品Hydraulic 水力的，液压的Petroleum 石油制品Ignite 点火Plasma spray coating 等离子喷涂Impurity 杂质Platen 屏Inert 惰性Polymer 聚合物Inferior 低级的，劣质的Pores 气孔，小孔Ingredients 成分Porosity多空的Potassium 钾Slurry 水煤浆Prandtl numbers 普朗特数Sodium 钠Prefabricated 预制的Solvents 溶剂Premium fuel 优质燃料Sootblower 吹灰器Pressure loss 压力损失Sour gas 含硫气体Primary air 一次风Specification 规格Propane 丙烷Stable ignition 稳定着火Proximate analysis 工业分析Stanton number 斯坦顿数Pulp 纸浆Saturated 饱和的Pyrites 黄铁矿Straw 稻草Radius 半径，范围Steam line blowing 蒸汽管路吹灰Rare earth element 稀土元素Steams 茎，杆Recuperator 间壁式换热器Stress corrosion 应力腐蚀Regenerator 回热器，蓄热器Structural formula 结构式Regulate 控制，调节Stud 双头螺栓Repercussions 反应Subbituminous 贫煤，次烟煤Reservoirs 储气罐Suction 真空，负压Residuale fuel oil 渣油Sulphur 硫Resonant 共振Superheater 过热器Retract缩回Swamp 沼泽Reynolds number 雷诺数Sweet gas 无硫气Rigid 刚性的，紧密地Switchgear 配电装置，开关装置Rollers 辊子Temperature-entropy 温熵图Scale 水垢，Tenacious 黏的Seal 密封Thermodynamics 热力学Sedimentary 沉积Tube bundles 管束Serpentine tube 蛇形管Tubular 管状的Shale 页岩Turbine 汽轮机Silica 二氧化硅V elocity 速度Silt 淤泥V ertical spidle mill 中速磨，立轴磨Single-phase 单相V essel 容器Skin casing 外护板Viscosity 黏度Slag 结渣V olumetric expansion 体膨胀Vulnerable 易损的，薄弱的DEH 数字电液系统Wear磨损DNB 偏离核态沸腾Welded 焊接FDF 送风机Wingwall屏式凝渣管FGD 烟气脱硫Yttrim 釔FSSS 炉膛安全检测保护系统Abbreviations HRB 回热锅炉AFBC 常压流化床燃烧IDF 引风机AFCO 燃料自动切断IGCC 整体煤气化联合循环AFWC 给水自动切断LMTD 对数平均温差ASME 美国机械工程师协会MFT 主燃料切断ATM 标准大气压MUF 锅炉补给水BFP 锅炉给水泵NWL 正常水位BUT 按钮OFA 火上风，燃尽风BWC锅炉水浓度PFBC 增压流化床燃烧BYP 旁路SSC 刮板除渣机CFBB 循环流化床锅炉TGA 热重分析仪MCR 最大连续蒸发量UBC 未燃烧DAS 数据采集系统WFGD 湿法烟气脱硫2.1 IntroductionBoilers use heat to convert water into steam for a variety of applications. Primary among these are electric power generation and industrial process heating. Steam has become a key resource because of its wide availability, advantageous properties and non toxic nature. The steam flow rates and operating conditions can vary dramatically; from 1000lb/h (0.1kg/s) in one process use to more than 10 million lb/h (1260kg/s) in large electric power plant; from about 14.7 psi (1 bar) and 212ºF in some heating applications to more than 4500 psi (310bar) and 1100ºF (593℃) in advanced cycle power plant.2.1 简介SSC锅炉利用热量使水转变成蒸汽以进行各种利用。

reduced basis methodreduced basis method:The reduced basis method is a computational technique used in the field of approximation and model reduction that allows for the efficient representation of high-dimensional problems. It is especially useful in scenarios where the full solution space is too large and computationally expensive to work with directly. In this article, we will delve into the reduced basis method and discuss its steps and applications.Step 1: Problem formulationThe first step in employing the reduced basis method is to formulate the problem mathematically. Consider ahigh-dimensional problem, for example, solving a partial differential equation (PDE). The governing equation, along with proper boundary and initial conditions, needs to be defined. This step is crucial as it sets the foundation for subsequent steps.Step 2: ParametrizationOnce the problem is defined, it is necessary to take into account the parameters that may affect the solution. These parameterscould be geometric, material, or boundary-related properties. For instance, in a fluid flow problem, the shape of the domain or the viscosity of the fluid may be considered as parameters. The parametrization step involves specifying the range of values that the parameters can take.Step 3: Full order solution generationWith the problem formulated and parameters identified, the next step is to generate the full order solution. This involves solving the problem for all possible combinations of parameter values within the specified ranges. The full order solution provides simulated data that can be used to construct a reduced basis.Step 4: Snapshot generationOnce the full order solutions are obtained, the next step is to extract "snapshots" from these solutions. These snapshots represent a set of basis vectors that span the solution space. The selection of these snapshots is important as they should capture the essential behaviors observed in the full order solutions.Step 5: Reduced basis constructionUsing the collected snapshots, a reduced basis is constructed. Thereduced basis represents a basis set that approximates the full order solution space while significantly reducing the computational complexity. This construction often involves applying techniques such as proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), which aims to capture the most dominant modes of the solution.Step 6: Galerkin projectionOnce the reduced basis is constructed, it is employed to project the problem onto a low-dimensional subspace. This projection is known as Galerkin projection and is used to obtain a reduced order model (ROM). The ROM represents an approximation of the problem and allows for efficient computations.Step 7: Reduced order solutionUsing the ROM, a reduced order solution can be computed for any specific parameter set of interest. This solution is obtained by solving the reduced system of equations resulting from the Galerkin projection. The reduced order solution is alow-dimensional approximation of the full order solution and is often accurate enough for most practical purposes.Applications of the reduced basis method:The reduced basis method finds applications in various fields, including computational fluid dynamics (CFD), structural mechanics, and optimal control. In CFD, it can be used to efficiently solve problems involving fluid flow around complex geometries or with uncertain parameters. In structural mechanics, the reduced basis method enables the rapid analysis of structures under different loading conditions. In optimal control, it can be employed to find optimal control strategies in real-time while significantly reducing the computational cost.Conclusion:The reduced basis method is a powerful computational technique that allows for the efficient approximation of high-dimensional problems. By constructing a reduced basis and employing Galerkin projection, it reduces the computational complexity while providing accurate solutions. This method finds applications in a wide range of fields and enables the analysis and optimization of complex systems.。

Unit 1Nursing at Beth Israel Hospital produces the best patient care possible. If we are to solve the nursing shortage , hospital administration and doctors everywhere would do well to follow Beth Israel's example.At Beth Israel each patient is assigned to a primary nurse who visits at length with the patient and constructs a full-scale health account that covers everything from his medical history to his emotional state. Then she writes a care plan centered on the patient's illness but which also includes everything else that is necessary.The primary nurse stays with the patient through his hospitalization, keeping track with his progress and seeking further advice from his doctor. If a patient at Beth Israel is not responding to treatment, it is not uncommon for his nurse to propose another approach to his doctor. What the doctor at Beth Israel has in the primary nurse is a true colleague.Nursing at Beth Israel also involves a decentralized nursing administration; every floor, every unit is a self-contained organization. There are nurse-managers instead of head nurses;in addition to their medical duties they do all their own hiring and dismissing, employee advising, and they make salary recommendations. Each unit's nurses decide among themselves who will work what shifts and when.Beth Israel's nurse-in-chief ranks as an equal with other vice presidents of the hospital. She also is a member of the Medical Executive Committee, which is most hospitals includes only doctors.Unit 2Rembrandt, one of the greatest artiest of all time, was born in Leiden in the Netherlands. As a child, he liked to 1) sketch the sun coming in through a windmill where he lived. He continued this interest in light and 2) shadow throughout life. His 3) paintings often show one hand of a person in light and in the dark. Many artists traveled 4) abroa d but Rembrandt always stayed within 50 miles of his birthplace in Leiden, although he lived to be 63. Much artists life was spent in Amsterdam, then the richest town in 5) Europe . in some of Rembrandt’s paintings, we see the rich clothes and 6) jewels worn by people of that time in Amsterdam. exqute texture, dishes and other such things simply because they were beautiful. The Dutch Other Dutch artists of the time painted cloth of7) artists of Rembrandt’s day painted 8) pictures of rooms with handsome dressed people in them . Rembrandt was greater because he painted people so that we can tell how they felt and not only the clothes and the lines of their faces . thought. He painted their personalities, 9)not just their clothes or the lines of their faces.Rembrandt worked hard all his life, constantly improving his art. But his domestic life was filled with sorrow as all his children and his wife died before him and his overspending meant that his later years were filled with hardship. The people of his time stopped honoring him, 10) but he was far greater than he would ever become . He was a great artist working on art problems ahead of his time.Unit 3The London Borough of Camden provides many services for elderly residents, among which are the preparation for retirement courses. These courses, lasting for ten afternoons, are run three times a year from September to June. They are basically designed for people due to retire within a few years and these students are normally released for half days by their employers, but those already in retirement are also welcome to join. The courses last about ten weeks and cost six pounds per person, normally paid by the employers, with a reduction for those already retired or receiving supplementary benefit. The courses include practical talks from specialist speakers on relevant subjects such as pensions and tax. A wide field of leisure activities is also covered and sufficient time is left for questions and discussion.There is also a senior citizens' club held at the Merry Ward Center on weekday afternoons from one thirty to three thirty. The club arranges discussion groups an handicraft sessions including dress-making and carpentry. Membership is free and a member can attend any courses held there free of charge. Other services at the center include legal advice at reduced rates to those who otherwise could not afford it and free financial advice from the financial section on Monday and Wednesday between six and eight p.m. Any other personal problem can be discussed with the counselor on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons from three thirty to four.Unit 4A new era is upon us. Call it what you will: the service economy, the information age, the knowledge society. It all translates to a fundamental change in the way we work. Already we're partly there. The percentage of people who earn their living by making things has fallen dramatically in the Western world. Today the majority of jobs in America, Europe and Japan are in the service industry, and the number is on the rise. More women are in the workforce than ever before. There are more part-time jobs. More people are self-employed. But the breadth of the economic transformation can't be measured by numbers alone, because it is also giving rise to a radical new way of thinking about the nature of work itself. Long-held notions about jobs and careers, the skills needed to succeed, even the relationship between individuals and employers, all these are being challenged.We only have to look behind us to get some sense of what may lie ahead. No one looking ahead 20 years could possibly have foreseen the ways in which a single invention, the chip, would transform our world thanks to its applications in personal computers, digita communications and factory robots. Tomorrow's achievements in biotechnology, artificial intelligence or even some still unimagined technology could produce a similar wave of dramatic changes. But one thing is certain: information and knowledge will become even more vital, and the people who possess it, whether they work in manufacturing or services, will have the advantage and produce the wealth. Computer knowledge will become as basic a requirement as the ability to read and write.Unit 5Thirty years ago, anyone blaming loneliness for physical illness would have been laughed at. But as scientists studied different populations, loneliness kept emerging as a risk factor. In one study, Californian researchers followed 4,700 residents of Alameda County for 10 years, starting in 1965.At first, the participants reported their key sources of companionship and estimated the time they devoted to each other. During the study, the people who reported the least social contact died at nearly three times the rate of those reporting the most. The source of companionship didn't matter, but time spent with others was critical.Since then, researchers have studied men, women, soldiers and students from countries all over the world. And the same pattern keeps emerging. Women who say they feel isolated go on to die of cancer at several times the expected rate. College students who report "strained and cold" relationships with their parents suffer extraordinary rates of hypertension and heart disease decades later. Heart-attack survivors who happen to live by themselves die at twice the rate of those who live with others.For those of us who are still healthy, the lesson should be obvious. It's clear that reaching out to others can help our bodies thrive. It's equally clear that we're growing more isolated. In 1900, only 5 percent of U.S. households consisted of one person living alone. The proportion reached 13 percent in 1960, and it stands at 25 percent today.Unit 6Ever since Philippine President Joseph Estrada was accused in October of accepting huge bribes, opposition pressure on him to resign has increased rapidly. On November 13, the House of Representatives voted to impeach him and declared he would face trial in the Senate.The bribery scandal broke at a press conference on October 9. At the press conference, Governor Luis Singapore of Ilocos Sur Province accused Estrada of illegally taking US $8 million in bribes from a gambling operation and getting US $2.7 million in tobacco taxes from that province. The Philippine House of Representatives reacted quickly. On October 18, 41 members put forward an act of impeachment against the President, listing many accusationsof corruption, bribery, and using his office for personal gain.The House of Representatives formally started impeachment procedures on October 23. Meanwhile, the opposition has pushed for him to resign. On October 12, current vice-President Gloria M. Arroyo resigned as Secretary of Social Welfare and urged the president to resign. Since then, the Sectary of Trade and Industry, the director-general of Grain Administration, and five economic advisers to the President have resigned. And more than 40 members of the congress of Estrada's own party have announced that they would withdraw from the party, including the chairmen of Senate and the House of Representatives, and the chairmen of the Judicial Committee and Economic Affairs Committee in the House of Representatives. With such important members of the government and congress having transferred their allegiance, the opposition has been emboldened to organized large-scale mass rallies to ask the President to step down.Unit 7At present, it is believed that genes account for at least half of our general thinking ability. Looking for better genes for their children has become the major concern of many would-be parents. They hope they can have a choice of the baby’s sex, its likely height, weight, hair, eye color, and intelligence.Four months ago, an unnamed couple placed “wanted”advertisements in severalstudents'newspapers run by high-fee, famous colleges where they might be able to find the genes they wanted for their children.“Intelligent, athletic egg-donor needed for loving family,”their advertisement read. “You must be at least 178 centimeters, strongly built, and possess no major family medical issues.”And the reward? It was $50,000.The couple has disclosed that 300 women responded. And more than a hundred reached the stage of consideration : 20 from Yale, 30 from Harvard, 40 from Princeton, and 15 from Stanford.What drew most attention was not the courage of the couple who advertised in these famous college newspapers, and not the principle of “eggs for sale”, but the sum American egg donors expect to be paid. Until then, the going rate was about $3,000 to $5,000, plus all the costs of medical treatment and insurance . Their action raised “high-quality”donor eggs into a different price bracket, as high as $50,000. This amount would meet almost half the cost of fees for the students’ four-year college course. And it is a good deal more than the average American’s annual wage.Unit 8In the fall of 1951, during my first week at North Carolina College, the chairman’s wife stopped me one day in the hall. She wanted to see me, she said.When I went to her office, she greeted me with a big smile. “You know,”she said, “you got the highest mark on the verbal part of the examination.”She was referring to the examination that the entire freshman class took upon entering the college. In spite of her smile, her eyes and tone of voice were saying, “How could this black-skinned girl score so high?”“It must be some sort of fluke .'" I felt agitated, but I managed to smile my thanks, and backed off. For here at North Carolina College, the faculty assumed light-skinned students were more intelligent. They were always a bit surprised when a dark-skinned student did well, particularly if she was a girl.When the grades for the first quarter came out, I had the highest average in the freshman class . The chairman’s wife called me into her office again. She praised me for my grades. Then, she took out a copy of the examination paper , and she asked me to take the exam over again.For a few moments I was so angry that I started punding her . I had seldom hated anyone so deeply. I handed the examination paper back to her and walked out.。