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第六章国际信贷[选择]国际商业银行贷款区别于其他国际信贷形式的特征是贷款用途不加限制。
[选择]由多家银行联合提供的中长期贷款叫辛迪加贷款。
[选择]银行同业拆借产生于存款准备金制度。
[选择]在整个短期信贷市场中占据主导地位的是银行同业拆借。
[选择]LIBOR是指伦敦银行同业拆放利率。
[选择]国际银行同业拆借的期限最长不超过6个月。
[选择]欧洲银行同业拆借的利率通常是固定利率。
[选择]国际商业贷款的主体是国际商业银行。
[选择]银团贷款产生的最根本原因是分散风险。
[选择]管理费是在银团贷款中借款人支付给牵头行。
[选择]贷款人只用款但不还本的期限是指宽限期。
[选择]对于借款人来讲，在贷款中借款一般首先选择软货币。
[选择]最简单、最普遍的国际租赁业务是全额清偿的跨国直接融资租赁。
[选择]国际租赁的租期中出租人对选择该设备的承租人所规定的用以计算租金的原始的、不可撤销的租赁期限是基本租期。
[选择]融资租赁的承租人是企业。
[选择]银行同业拆借市场的参与者包括银行、货币经纪人、中央银行、大公司、货币管理机构。
[选择]在借款人向贷款人提供的物的担保中，根据对担保物的处理权的不同，可以分为抵押、质押、留置。
[选择] -项国际租赁交易必须涉及到承租人、出租人、供货商、国际贸易合同、国际租赁合同。
[选择]从国际商业银行借款应考虑的原则借取的货币要与使用方向相衔接、借款货币应与其购买设备后所生产的产品的主要销售市场相连接、借取的货币最好选择软币，但利率较高、借款最好选择流动性较强的货币、借款货币应与产品的主要销售市场相衔接。
[选择]确定租期长短应考虑的因素包括融资租赁的目的、租赁设备的特性、出租人的融资能力、承租人的还租能丑。
[选择]租金的构成要素包括设备购置成本、融资成本、管理费、出租人期待的利润。
[判断]典型的银行间信贷以100万美元作为一个交易单位。
[判断]中长期贷款是指一年期以上的贷款。
[判断]贷款期限是指借款人提供的贷款期限。
《国际金融学》课程笔记第一章：开放经济下的国民收入账户与国际收支账户第一节开放经济下的国民收入账户一、国民收入账户的概念国民收入账户是宏观经济分析的核心工具之一，它系统地记录了一个国家在一定时期内（通常为一年）经济活动的总量和结构，包括生产、收入、支出和积累等各个方面。
二、国民收入账户的构成1. 生产账户- 国内生产总值（GDP）：衡量一个国家在一定时期内生产的所有最终商品和服务的市场价值总和。
- 国民生产总值（GNP）：GDP加上本国居民在国外生产的净收入，减去外国居民在本国生产的净收入。
- 增加值：生产过程中新创造的价值，等于总产出减去中间消耗。
2. 收入账户- 国民收入（NI）：国内生产总值扣除折旧和间接税和企业转移支付，加上政府补助金。
- 个人收入（PI）：国民收入扣除公司未分配利润、公司所得税及社会保险税费，加上政府给个人的转移支付。
- 个人可支配收入（DPI）：个人收入扣除个人所得税和非税支付。
3. 资本账户- 资本形成总额：一定时期内新增固定资产和存货的总和。
- 资本存量：某一时点上的固定资产和存货的总和。
4. 财政账户- 政府收入：包括税收、非税收入等。
- 政府支出：包括政府购买、转移支付等。
5. 投资储蓄账户- 总储蓄：国民收入减去消费支出。
- 总投资：一定时期内用于增加资本存量的支出。
三、国民收入账户的计算方法1. 生产法（产出法）- 计算公式：GDP = Σ（最终商品和服务的市场价值）- 中间消耗。
- 特点：直接反映经济活动的生产成果。
2. 收入法- 计算公式：GDP = 工资+ 利息+ 租金+ 利润+ 企业转移支付+ 折旧。
- 特点：从收入角度反映经济活动的成果。
3. 支出法- 计算公式：GDP = 消费支出+ 投资支出+ 政府购买+ 净出口。
- 特点：从最终需求角度反映经济活动的成果。
四、开放经济对国民收入账户的影响1. 贸易收支- 进口和出口的变化直接影响净出口，进而影响GDP。
姜波克《国际金融新编》（第6版）笔记和课后习题（含考研真题）详解完整版>精研学习䋞>无偿试用20％资料
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目录
隐藏
第一章导论
1.1复习笔记
1.2课后习题详解
1.3考研真题与典型题详解
第二章国际收支和国际收支平衡表
2.1复习笔记
2.2课后习题详解
2.3考研真题与典型题详解
第三章汇率基础理论
3.1复习笔记
3.2课后习题详解
3.3考研真题与典型题详解
第四章内部均衡和外部平衡的短期调节4.1复习笔记
4.2课后习题详解
4.3考研真题与典型题详解
第五章内部均衡和外部平衡的中长期调节5.1复习笔记
5.2课后习题详解
5.3考研真题与典型题详解
第六章外汇管理及其效率分析
6.1复习笔记
6.2课后习题详解
6.3考研真题与典型题详解
第七章金融全球化对内外均衡的冲击7.1复习笔记
7.2课后习题详解
7.3考研真题与典型题详解
第八章金融全球化下的国际协调与合作8.1复习笔记
8.2课后习题详解
8.3考研真题与典型题详解。
INTERNATIONAL FINANCEAssignment Problems (6) Name: Student#: I. Choose the correct answer for the following questions (only ONE correct answer) (3 credits for each question, total credits 3 x 20 = 60)1. Which of the following is NOT true regarding forward contracts?A. The maturity of forward contracts is flexible.B. Forward contracts are traded both on organized exchanges and OTC market.C. Forward contracts are used to speculate the discrepancies of the exchange rates.D. The size of a forward contract is usually much larger than that of the futures or options.2. Which of the following is NOT a contract specification for currency futures trading on an organized exchange?A. maturity dateB. maintenance margin requirementC. size of the contractD. All of the above are specified3. A futures contract is very similar to a forward contract, because __________.A. both are agreements between two parties to deliver relative currencies at a certain time for a certain priceB. both are standardized contractsC. both can be used to eliminate the default riskD. both are required to physically deliver the underlying currency4. If the amount in the margin account drops below the maintenance margin, the futures contract holder will __________.A. close out the contractB. be issued a margin callC. write a new contractD. notify the exchange5. Which of the following is NOT a difference between a currency futures contract and a forward contract?A. The counterparty to the futures participant is unknown with the clearinghouse stepping into each transaction whereas the forward contract participants are in direct contact setting the forward specifications.B. A single sales commission covers both the purchase and sale of a futures contract whereas there is no specific sales commission with a forward contract because banks earn a profit through the bid-ask spread.C. The futures contract is marked to market daily whereas a forward contract is only due to be settled at maturity.D. All of the above are differences between a currency futures contract and a forward contract.6. Assume that Citibank in New York quotes a 30-day forward rate on euro of $0.7533 while the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX) euro futures for delivery in 30 days is being quoted at $0.7522. You can make a riskless profit by __________.A. taking a short position on euro in SIMEX euro futures contract and a long position on euro in the forward contractB. taking a long position on euro in SIMEX euro futures contract and a short position on euro in the forward contractC. taking a short position on dollar in SIMEX euro futures contract and a short position on dollar in the forward contractD. taking a long position on dollar in SIMEX euro futures contract and a long position on dollar in the forward contract7. The main function of the “Marking to market” procedure comes down to __________.A. avoid default risk inherent in forward contractsB. cover risk exposure arisen from the international transactionsC. protect the contract holders from suffering the lossD. all of the above8. The buyer of a futures contract is required to put a sum of money in the exchange. This sum of money is called __________.A. down paymentB. initial marginC. premiumD. commission9. When reading the futures quotation in the newspaper, the column heading indicating the number of contracts outstanding on the previous day is called __________.A. percentage changeB. settleC. open interestD. estimated volume10. A put option on Japanese yen is written with a strike price of ¥ 88/$. Which of the following spot rate maximizes your profit if you choose to execute the contract before maturity?A. ¥70/$B. ¥80/$C. ¥90/$D. ¥100/$11. The agreed price in a currency option contract is called the __________.A. forward priceB. futures priceC. exercise priceD. spot price12. For a currency put option if the future spot rate is above the strike price, the option is said to be __________.A. in-the-moneyB. at-the-moneyC. out-of-the-moneyD. break-even13. The writer of an option contract has __________ whereas the holder has __________.A. obligation; choiceB. right; responsibilityC. choice; obligationD. priority; privilege14. Assume you bought a call option with the exercise price of $1.55/₤in Chicago Mercantile Exchange on September 6. The contract would be expired in December. If the spot exchange rate was $1.50/₤on October 10, the intrinsic value of this call option on that day would be __________.A. $0.05B. -$0.05C. $0D. None of the above, because the contract doesn’t expire on October 10.15. The foreign-currency accounts payable can be hedged by buying a __________ option on the foreign currency, whereas accounts receivable can be hedged by buying a __________ option on the foreign currency.A. call; putB. put; callC. American; EuropeanD. European; American16. Mr. Bull tries to speculate on the direction of the entire stock market, the most efficient method he should use is to acquire __________.A. a stock index futuresB. a portfolio containing stocks of all traded companiesC. a currency forward contractD. a currency futures contract17. The amount that the option purchaser must pay to obtain an option contract may be described as option __________.A. costB. premiumC. priceD. All of the above18. A Canadian dollar option quoted as “C$ Sep 9800 put” is selling on the CME at a price of $0.0026/C$. The size of the contract is C$100,000. Assume the spot exchange rate on the maturity day turns out to be $0.95/C$. You will have __________ if you hold 10 contracts.A. $30,000 net profitB. $30,000 net lossC. $27,400 net profitD. $27,400 net loss19. A fixed-to-fixed currency swap is used to __________.A. hedge currency riskB. speculate discrepancies of the exchange rateC. make a riskless profitD. All of the above20. Exxon and Chase Manhattan Bank reached an agreement. In the next two years, Exxon would pay fixed price of oil to Chase Manhattan Bank on June 30, and Chase Manhattan Bank would pay floating price of oil according to the spot price on the same day. This is an example of __________.A. fixed-for-floating currency swapB. commodity swapC. swaptionD. equity swapII. Problems (40 Credits)1. Samuel Samosir trades currencies for Peregrine Funds in Jakarta, Indonesia. He focuses nearly all of his time and attention on the U.S. dollar/Singapore dollar ($/S$) exchange rate. The current spot rate is $0.6000/S$. After considerable study this week, he has concluded that the Singapore dollar will appreciate versus the U.S. dollar in the coming 90 days, probably to about $0.7000/S$. He has the following options on the Singapore dollar to choose from: (3 credits for each question, total credits 3 x 5 = 15 credits)Option Strike Price PremiumPut on S$ $0.6500/S$ $0.00003/S$Call on S$ $0.6500/S$ $0.00046/S$a. Should Samuel buy a put on Singapore dollars or a call on Singapore dollar?b. Using your answer to part a, what is Samuel’s break-even price?c. Using your answer to part a, what is Samuel’s gross profit and net profit (including the premium) if the spot rate at the end of the 90 days is indeed $0.7000/S$?d. Using your answer to part a, what is Samue l’s gross profit and net profit (including the premium) if the spot rate at the end of the 90 days is indeed $0.8000/S$?e. Using your answer to part a, what is the contract’s time value at the end of the 90 days?2. Jennifer Magnussen, a currency trader for Chicago-based Black River Investments, uses the futures quotes below on the British pound to speculate on its value: (5 credits for each question, total credits 4 x 3 = 12 credits)British Pound Futures, US$/pound (CME) Contract = 62,500 pounds Initial margin: $2,500/contract Maintenance margin: $1,250Maturity Open High Low Settle Change High Low OpenInterest March 1.4246 1.4268 1.4214 1.4228 .0032 1.4700 1.3810 25,605 June 1.4164 1.4188 1.4146 1.4162 .0030 1.4550 1.3910 809a. If Jennifer buys 5 June pound futures right after CME opens, and the spot rate at maturity is $1.3980/pound, what is the value of her position?b. If Jennifer sells 12 March pound futures with the opening quote, and the spot rate at maturity is $1.4560/pound, what is the value of her position?c. If Jennifer buys 10 June pound futures at $1.3500/₤in the early afternoon, and the closing rate at the end of the day is $1.3246/pound instead of $1.4162/pound, what will happen? Explain.3. You head the currency trading desk at Bearings Bank in London. As the middleman in a deal between the U.K. and Danish government, you have just paid₤1,000,000 to the U.K. government and have been promised DKr8,438,000 from the Danish government in three months. All else constant, you wouldn’t mind leaving this long krone position open. However, next month’s referendum in Denmark may close the possibility of Denmark joining the European Union. If this happens, you expect the krone to drop on world markets. As a hedge, you are considering purchasing a call option on pounds sterling with an exercise price of DKr8.4500/₤that sells for DKr0.1464/₤. (13 credits total)a. Fill in the call option values at expiration the following table. (3 credits) Spot rate at expiration (DKr/₤): 8.00 8.40 8.42 8.44 8.46 8.48Call value at expiration (DKr/₤):b, Based on the previous information, draw the payoff profile for a long krone put option at expiration. Note that these exchange rates are reciprocals of those in problem a. (3 credits)Spot rate atexpiration (₤/DKr) .12500 .11905 .11876 .11848 .11820 .11792 Put value atexpiration (₤/DKr)c. Label your axes and plot each of the points. Draw a profit/loss graph for this long krone put at expiration. (7 credits)Answers to Assignment (6)I. (60 credits)1. B2. D3. A4.B5. D6. B7. A8. B9. C 10. A 11. C 12. C 13. A 14. C 15. A 16. A 17. D 18. C 19. A 20.BII. (40 credits)1. Option problema. Samuel should buy a call on Singapore dollar.b. Break-even exchange rate for a call option = strike price + premium= 0.6500 + 0.00046 = $0.65046/S$c. Gross profit = 0.7000 – 0.6500 = $0.05Net profit = 0.7000 – 0.65046 = $0.04954d. Gross profit = 0.8000 – 0.6500 = $0.15Net profit = 0.8000 – 0.65046 = $0.14954e. time value = 0, no time value when the contract expires.2. Futures problema. Jennifer’s loss = (1.3980 – 1.4164) x (62,500) x 5 = -$5,750Value of her position: (2,500 x 5) – 5,750 = $12,500 – 5,750 = $6,750b. Jennifer’s loss = (1.4246 – 1.4560) x (62,500 x 12 = -$23,550Value of her position: (2,500 x 12) – 23,550 = $30,000 – 23,550 = $6,450c. Jennifer’s margin account at the end of the day drops to: (1.3246 – 1.3500) x (62,500) x 10 = -$15,875 + 25,000 = $9,125Jennifer will receive a margin call from the exchange which is12,500 – 9,125 = $3,375Jennifer should bring $3,375 more to meet the maintenance margin requirement.3. Option profilea. Spot rate at expiration (DKr/₤): 8.00 8.40 8.42 8.44 8.46 8.48Call value at expiration (DKr/₤): 0 0 0 0 0.01 0.03 Call option intrinsic value at the expiration = (S DKr/₤– K DKr/₤)b. Spot rate atexpiration (₤/DKr) .12500 .11905 .11876 .11848 .11820 .11792 Put value atexpiration (₤/DKr) 0 0 0 0 0.000143 0.000423 Put option intrinsic value at the expiration = (K DKr/₤– S DKr/₤)c. K = ₤0.118343/DKrOption premium (x): 0.1464/8.45 = x/0.118343x = ₤0.002050/DKrPremium cost = 0.002050 x 8,438,000 = ₤17,298Cost of exercise = 0.118343 x 8,438,000 = ₤998,578.Profit/Loss profileBreak-even price = 0.11834 – 0.00205 = ₤0.11629/DKrIf spot exchange rate at expiration is 0.11610, net profit:(0.11629 – 0.11610) x 8,438,000 = ₤1,603If spot exchange rate at expiration is 0.118343 or below, net lossPremium cost ₤17,297.90Put t₤/DKr₤1,603 ABreak-even K S₤/DKr 00.11610 0.11629 0.11834 0.11848 0.11905-₤17,298。
Chapter 6 International Parity Conditions国际平价（汇率的决定因素）PART ONE 学习准备：（一）学习目标1. Examine how price levels and price level changes (inflation) in countries determine the exchange rate at which their currencies are traded.看看国家中价格水平和价格水平的变化(通货膨胀)如何决定通货贸易中本国货币的汇率2. Show how interest rates reflect inflationary forces within each country and currency说明利率如何反映每个国家通胀压力和货币3. Explain how forward markets for currencies reflect expectations held by market participants about the future spot rate解释远期市场的货币如何反映市场参与者对未来即期汇率的预期4. Analyze how, in equilibrium, the spot and forward currency markets are aligned with interest differentials分析如何现货和远期外汇市场如何在平衡中与利益差异并列。
（罗小懒）制造版权所有！期末加油）制造（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油第二部分 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) & The Law of One Price如果一价定律对于所有产品和服务均成立，则购买力平价汇率可从任何单个价格集中获得。
通过比较以不同货币标价的同质商品，人们可以决定存在于有效市场中的“真实的”或购买力平价汇率。
这是绝对购买力平价理论。
绝对购买力平价认为，即期汇率是由相似产品集的相对价格决定的。
被《经济学人》命名的“巨无霸指数”就是一个典型的一价定律的例子。
假设巨无霸在所有国家都是相同的,它作为衡量通货是否以市场价格进行交易的指标。
假设巨无霸在中国卖11.0元(人民币)，而相同的巨无霸在美国售价为3.41美元，实际汇率是7.60元人民币/美元。
（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油在这个案例里可以看到人民币被低估了58%。
巨无霸指数是一价定律的实际应用，并且能很好的测定估值，明白这一点至关重要。
首先，产品本身在各市场中是近似同一的。
这是因为产品的一致性，流程优化以及麦当劳的商誉。
同样重要的第二点是，产品中很大部分是本土原料成本和投入成本。
这意味着该产品在各国的价格代表了国内成本和价格，而并非受汇率影响的进口价。
还有一个补充公式，P126:第三部分 Relative Purchasing Power Parity 相对购买力平价（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油如果绝对购买力平价理论的假设放宽，我们观察到相对（实际）购买力平价。
1.这个想法是，购买力平价在确定今天的即期汇率时不是特别有帮助，但是一段时期内，两个国家之间的实际价格变动决定了两国间汇率的变动。
2.此外，如果两个国家之间的即期汇率在开始时处于平衡状态，它们之间的通胀率差的任何变化从长远来看，往往会被相等但相反的即期汇率的变化所抵消。
（请看书上128页对这个图的解释，我已经懒得翻译了亲爱的。
）购买力平价的主要理由是如果一国经历比其贸易伙伴国更高的通货膨胀率的话，并且汇率不变，则其出口的商品和服务与其他地方制造的商品相比竞争力减弱。
从外国进口的商品与国内的高价商品相比竞争力增强。
这些价格变动会导致国际收支经常账户赤字，除非被资本，资金流量抵消。
从这些实验中得出两个一般性结论：（该图表示日元美元和欧元在过去30年实际有效汇率的变动。
）4.除了测度购买力平价的偏差外，一国的真实有效汇率还是重要的管理工具，来预测该国国际收支及汇率所受的向上或向下的压力，并指出该国出口品的需求度。
（二）Exchange Rate Pass-Through汇率直通（小king完全没讲，书旁边也没有中文。
等我心情好了再来翻译你）第四部分Interest Rates and Exchange Rates利率与汇率以经济学家欧文-费雪命名的费雪效益认为，各国的名义利率等于要求的真实回报率加上对预期通胀率的补偿。
i是名义利率，r是真实利率，π是出借资金的这段时期的通胀率，交叉乘积项rπ是相对较小的值得下降。
如果适用于两个不同的国家，如美国和日本，费雪效应会被表述（罗小懒）制造版权所有！期末加油（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油为应该指出，这需要对未来通胀率的预测，而不是已经发生的通货膨胀，而预测未来是很困难的。
实验显示费雪效应通常存在于短期的政府证券中，如短期及中期的国库券。
该实验使用了事后的全国性通胀率。
对更长期证券的比较收到未到期债券市值波动所带来的渐增的金融风险的影响。
对私人发行的证券比较受发行人信用状况的良莠不齐的影响。
由于过去的通胀率并非未来预期通胀率的准确测度，因此所有这些实验都是不确定的。
（一）international Fisher effect （Fisher-open ）国际费雪效应，指出即期汇率的变化量应等于但相反于国家之间的利率差。
如果我们用美元和日元，美元和日元之间的即期汇率的预期变动应该是（在近似形式）国际费雪效应的理由是，投资者必须被予以奖励或处罚，以抵消汇率的预期变化国际费雪效应预测到，在有无限制的资本流动的情况下，投资者应该对投资于美元或日元债券无动于衷， 因为世界各地的投资者会看到（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油同样的机会和竞争。
实验支持国际费雪效益假定的关系，尽管存在大量短期偏离。
然而，近来的研究提出一个更加严肃的质疑，他们表明大多数主要货币都存在外汇风险补偿。
而且，対无抵补套利（简略说法）的投机活动会使货币市场扭曲。
因此，汇率的预期变化可能会一直大于利差。
（三）The Forward Rate 远期汇率远期汇率1）远期利率是今天确定的在将来的某日所报的结算汇率2）货币之间的远期外汇协议规定交换的外币将在未来的某个特定日期买入或卖出远期（通常为30，60，90，180，270或360天）3）远期汇率是由相同到期日的两个主体货币的欧元货币利率比调整当前即期汇率计算远期汇率的例子有Sfr1.4800/$，4.00％年利率的90天欧元瑞士法郎存款利率的即期汇率和8.00％年利率的90天欧洲美元存款利率远期溢价或折价在每年的百分比计算所述的即期与远期汇率之（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油间的百分比差异，当间接的方式表述（每家货币单位外币，FC/$），那么公式是欧元远期汇率组的远期升水产生于欧元利率与瑞士法郎利率之间的差异，因为任何期限的远期汇率均由该期限的利率得出，所以货币的远期升贴水通常是明显的。
利率更高的货币在远期会折价出售，利率较低的货币在远期会溢价出售。
（Currency Yield Curves and the Forward Premium ）（四）Interest Rate Parity (IRP)利率平价（IRP ）利率平价理论提供了联系外汇市场和国际货币市场的纽带。
该理论认为：风险相同，期限相同的证券的名义利率差异应该等于负的去（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油除交易成本的外汇远期升贴水。
忽略交易成本，如果两种可选货币交易市场投资机会所得的美元收益相等，则即期、远期汇率处于汇率平价状态。
交易是抵补的，因为（将瑞士法郎）兑换回美元的汇率在90天后是确定的。
在下面的图表中，以美元为基础的投资者有100万美元投资，显示以美元计价的证券为90天赚8.00％计息，和有类似的风险及到期日的以瑞士法郎计价赚4.00%的证券没有区别when “cover” against currency risk is obtained with a forward contract。
（五）Covered Interest Arbitrage (CIA)即器和远期汇率市场并非同时处于利率平价理论描述的均衡状态。
当市场不在均衡状态时，存在无风险套利机会。
套利者识别出不均衡，利用该状态投资于抵补基础上获利最多的货币，这种行为被称为抵补套利。
（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油抵补套利过程驱使国际货币市场朝着利率平价均衡运行。
从均衡状态的微小偏离为套利者提供了小的无风险获利机会。
该偏离引致供给与需求压力，使市场移回利率平价均衡态。
经验法则：如果利率差大于远期升水（或即期汇率的预期变动），投资于收益率较高的货币。
如果利率差小于远期升水（或即期汇率的预期变动），投资于低收益货币。
（六）Uncovered Interest Arbitrage (UIA): The Yen Carry Trade（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油抵补套利的偏离形式是无抵补套利，即投资者借相对低利率的国家的国币，将收益兑换成更高利率的货币，。
该交易是无抵补的，因为投资者不卖出更高收益率的货币的远期，而选择保持无抵补状态，并接受在期末将较高收益率货币兑换成较低收益率货币的货币风险。
图6-9说明了利率和汇率均衡的必要条件。
竖轴显示了有利于外币的利率差，而横轴显示该货币的远期升贴水。
利率平价线显示了均衡状态，但交易成本使它呈带状，而不是一条细线。
第五部分 Forward Rates as an Unbiased Predictor 远期利率作为无偏预测如果外汇市场被认为是“有效的”，那么远期汇率应该是未来即期汇率的无偏预测。
这大致相当于说，远期利率可以作为未来即期汇率的预测，而且往往会“怀念”实际未来即期利率，但它会以同样的概率（方向）和大小（距离）错过。
直觉上，未来可能的真实汇率是以远期汇率为中心分布的。
但是，无偏估计并不意味着未来即期汇率会等于远期汇率所估计的。
无偏估计只意味着平均来看，远期汇率会以同样的频率和幅度高估和低估未来实际即期汇率。
事实上，远期汇率从不等于未来即期汇率。
关于两者关系的基本理论是基于外汇市场有效的假设之上的。
市场有效假定：1.所有相关信息会快速反应在即期和远期外汇市场上。
2.低交易成本3.不同货币标价的金融工具相互之间完全可以代替。
第六部分Prices, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in Equilibrium（一）购买力平价（罗小懒）制造版权所有！期末加油（罗小懒）制造 版权所有！期末加油预计在即期汇率的通胀预期率的差异的基础上改变（二）费雪效应名义利率在每个国家都是平等的回报所需的实际利率（R ）加补偿预期通货膨胀率（p ）（三）国际费雪效应即期汇率的用量应等于但在国家之间的利率差的反方向变化（四）利率平价在国家利率差应等于，但迹象，远期汇率折让或溢价的外币相反，除了交易成本（五）远期利率作为无偏预测远期汇率是未来即期汇率的有效预测，假设外汇市场是相当有效率总结1.平价条件在传统上被经济学家用来帮助解释汇率的长期趋势。
