Game theory and speculation on government bonds
- 格式:pdf
- 大小:660.81 KB
- 文档页数:10
In the realm of board games,chess stands out as one of the most intellectually stimulating and historically rich games.It is a game that has captivated minds for centuries,with a complex set of rules and strategies that can be both challenging and rewarding to learn.This report delves into the intricacies of chess,exploring its history,the psychology behind the game,and its impact on cognitive development.The History of ChessChess has a rich history that dates back to the6th century in India,where it was known as Chaturanga.Over time,the game evolved and spread to Persia,where it was called Shatranj.The modern form of chess that we know today took shape in Europe during the late15th century,with the introduction of the queen and bishop pieces and the standardization of the board to its current8x8grid.The game has been a favorite among scholars,military strategists,and even royalty.It is said that the game was so popular among the nobility in the16th century that it was sometimes referred to as the kings game. Chess has also been used as a metaphor for war,with each piece representing different units on the battlefield.Psychology of ChessChess is not just a game of strategy it is also a psychological duel between two players.The ability to anticipate an opponents moves and to plan several steps ahead requires a deep understanding of the game and itspossibilities.This foresight is a testament to the cognitive demands of chess,which can sharpen critical thinking and problemsolving skills.Moreover,chess has been studied for its effects on the brain.Research has shown that regular chess play can improve memory,concentration,and even spatial reasoning.It is a game that requires players to constantly evaluate positions,calculate potential outcomes,and make decisions under pressure,all of which are valuable skills in everyday life.Cognitive Development and ChessThe impact of chess on cognitive development is particularly noteworthy. Numerous studies have indicated that children who learn to play chess at a young age tend to perform better in school,particularly in subjects that require analytical thinking.Chess helps to develop a childs ability to focus, plan,and think abstractly,all of which are crucial for academic success.Moreover,chess can be a tool for teaching discipline and patience.The game requires players to sit still for extended periods,think deeply,and accept the consequences of their decisions.These are qualities that are not only beneficial in the game but also in life.Chess and SocietyChess has also played a significant role in society beyond the board.It has been used as a tool for social integration,bringing together people from different backgrounds and fostering a sense of community.Chess clubsand tournaments are common in many cities,providing a platform for social interaction and friendly competition.Furthermore,chess has been used in educational settings to teach strategic thinking and to promote intellectual growth.Many schools have integrated chess into their curriculum,recognizing its potential to enhance students cognitive abilities.ConclusionChess is more than just a game it is a testament to human ingenuity and strategic prowess.Its history is a reflection of our cultural evolution,and its psychological demands reveal much about the human mind.The cognitive benefits of chess are welldocumented,making it an invaluable tool for education and personal development.As we continue to explore the depths of this ancient game,we find that it offers a wealth of knowledge and skills that can be applied to many aspects of life.Whether played for leisure,competition,or as a means of intellectual growth,chess remains a timeless and enriching pursuit.。
第三节博弈论(Game Theory)在国际关系的研究过程中,我们时常会运用到博弈论这样一个工具。
博弈论在英语中称之为“Game Theory”。
很多人会认为这是一种所谓的游戏理论,其实不然,我们不能把Games 与Fun 同论,而应该将博弈论称之为是一种“Strategic interaction”(策略性互动)。
“博弈”一词现如今在我们的生活中出现的已经很频繁,我们经常会听说各种类型的国家间博弈(如:中美博弈),“博弈论”已经深刻的影响了世界局势和地区局势的发展。
在iChange创设的危机联动体系中,博弈论将得到充分利用,代表也将有机会运用博弈论的知识来解决iChange 核心学术委员会设计的危机。
在这一节中,我将对博弈论进行一个初步的介绍与讨论,代表们可以从这一节中了解到博弈论的相关历史以及一些经典案例的剖析。
(请注意:博弈论的应用范围非常广泛,涵盖数学、经济学、生物学、计算机科学、国际关系、政治学及军事战略等多种学科,对博弈论案例的一些深入分析有时需要运用到高等数学知识,在本节中我们不会涉及较多的数学概念,仅会通过一些基本的数学分析和逻辑推理来方便理解将要讨论的经典博弈案例。
)3.1 从“叙利亚局势”到“零和博弈”在先前关于现实主义理论的讨论中,我们对国家间博弈已经有了初步的了解,那就是国家是有目的的行为体,他们总为了实现自己利益的最大化而选择对自己最有利的战略,其次,政治结果不仅仅只取决于一个国家的战略选择还取决于其他国家的战略选择,多种选择的互相作用,或者策略性互动会产生不同的结果。
因此,国家行为体在选择战略前会预判他国的战略。
在这样的条件下,让我们用一个简单的模型分析一下发生在2013年叙利亚局势1:叙利亚危机从2011年发展至今已经将进入第四个年头。
叙利亚危机从叙利亚政府军屠杀平民和儿童再到使用化学武器而骤然升级,以2013年8月底美国欲对叙利亚动武达到最为紧张的状态,同年9月中旬,叙利亚阿萨德政府以愿意向国际社会交出化学武器并同意立即加入《禁止化学武器公约》的态度而使得局势趋向缓和。
游戏理论概括英文作文英文:Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics and economics that studies strategic interactions between rational decision-makers. It provides a framework for analyzing and understanding how individuals, firms, and governments make decisions in competitive situations. The central concept of game theory is the "game," which is a formal model of a strategic interaction between two or more players. Each player in the game has a set of possible strategies, and the outcome of the game depends on the strategies chosen by all players.One of the most famous games in game theory is the prisoner's dilemma, which illustrates the concept of Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Nash. In the prisoner's dilemma, two suspects are arrested and placed in separate cells. They are given the option to cooperate with each other by remaining silent, or to betrayeach other by confessing. The outcome of their decision depends on the choices made by both suspects. The Nash equilibrium in this game occurs when both suspects choose to betray each other, even though they would be better off if they both remained silent. This example demonstrates how rational individuals may not always make the best decisions when they are in a competitive situation.Another important concept in game theory is the notion of a dominant strategy, which is a strategy that always provides the best outcome for a player, regardless of the strategies chosen by other players. For example, in the game of rock-paper-scissors, if one player always chooses "rock" regardless of the other player's choice, they have a dominant strategy. Understanding dominant strategies can help players make optimal decisions in competitive games.Game theory has applications in various fields, including economics, political science, biology, and computer science. For example, it is used to analyze voting behavior in elections, to model the behavior of firms in oligopoly markets, and to study the evolution ofcooperation in biological systems. In computer science, game theory is used to design algorithms for multi-agent systems and to analyze the behavior of autonomous agents.In conclusion, game theory provides a powerful framework for analyzing strategic interactions and understanding the behavior of rational decision-makers in competitive situations. By studying game theory, we cangain insights into a wide range of phenomena in the social and natural sciences.中文:博弈论是应用数学和经济学的一个分支,研究理性决策者之间的战略互动。
essays on game theoryEssay on Game TheoryGame theory is the study of strategic decision-making in situations where various actors interact. Game theory models are used in social science, economics, and beyond to explain and predict behavior in strategic situations. Game theory goes beyond simple decision-making by incorporating ideas from psychology and game theory to help better understand social behavior.Essays on Game TheoryEssays on game theory are an essential part of understanding the study of strategic decision-making in the social sciences. Game theory is crucial for understanding how individuals and organizations make strategic decisions when interacting with others. Game theory is also important for understanding the motivations and incentives that drive behavior in these situations.Essays on game theory typically begin by defining the basic concepts, including the game, the players, and their strategies. The essays go on to explore how these concepts influence behavior in different scenarios. For example, some essays may focus on the simple game of two-person zero-sum games, such as rock-paper-scissors. These games are an essential starting point for understanding how strategies interact with each other. Essays on game theory may also explore more complex situations, such as social dilemmas like the tragedy of the commons.One important aspect of game theory that essays oftenhighlight is the role of incentives. Incentives are essential to understanding how individuals and organizations make strategic decisions in different scenarios. Game theory is used to explore how incentives impact behavior, both in terms of individual decision-making and group dynamics.In addition to exploring the basic concepts of game theory, essays on game theory may also present new research findings or case studies. These essays might examine how game theory can be applied to real-world problems or scenarios, such as financial crises or international geopolitical conflicts. These case studies can provide valuable insights into how strategic decision-making plays out in the real world.Essays on game theory have the potential to provide important insights into how individuals and organizationsmake strategic decisions when interacting with others. By exploring the basic concepts of game theory and applying them to real-world scenarios, essays on game theory help us understand the motivations and incentives that drive behavior. As such, essays on game theory are an essential component of the social sciences and provide valuable insights into human behavior and decision-making.。
夸美纽斯的游戏理论Kuhn's Game Theory is a mathematical approach to studying the interactions between two or more players. It is based on the idea that each player has a set of strategies that they can use to maximize their chances of winning in a given situation. The theory is used to analyze the decisions that players make in a game, and to determine the optimal strategy for each player to maximize their chances of winning. This theory has been applied to a wide variety of games, including poker, chess, and Go. It has also been used to study economic and political interactions.Krashen's Game Theory is a theory of second language acquisition developed by Stephen Krashen, a linguist and educational researcher. The theory posits that language acquisition is a subconscious process that occurs when learners are exposed to comprehensible input. It suggests that learners can acquire language when they are exposed to meaningful input that they can understand, even if they are not actively attempting to learn the language. Krashen's Game Theory proposes that the best way to learn a second language is to play games in the target language. Games provide an enjoyable and engaging way for learners to interact with the language and learn it in a natural way. Games also provide an opportunity for learners to practice using the language in a low-stakes environment. Krashen's Game Theory suggests that playing games in the target language can be an effective way to learn a second language.Kuhn's game theory is a theory that explains how players in a game interact with each other. It is based on the idea that players are motivated by a desire to maximize their own benefit, and that they will make decisions based on their own interests. The theory states that players will make decisions that are in their own best interest, regardless of the consequences for other players. The theory also suggests that players will try to anticipate the moves of their opponents and adjust their strategies accordingly. This theory is used to explain a wide range of phenomena in economics, politics, and other fields.KMUNS's game theory is a theory of strategic interaction between two or more players. It is based on the idea that players choose strategies that maximize their benefits given the strategies chosen by other players. The theory has been applied to a wide range of fields, including economics, politics, and military strategy. KMUNS's game theory is a powerful tool for understanding the behavior of individuals and organizations in situations where the outcomes depend on the decisions of multiple players. It allows us to analyze how different strategies can lead to different outcomes, and how players can use different strategies to achieve their goals.Kleiner-Minsky's game theory is a mathematical approach to understanding how different players interact and make decisions in a game. It is based on the idea that players have different objectives and will make decisions based on their own preferences. The theory is used to analyze the behavior of players in a game, and to predict how they will act in different situations. It canalso be used to develop strategies for players to maximize their chances of winning. Kleiner-Minsky's game theory has been used in a variety of fields, including economics, political science, and artificial intelligence.Kauffman's Game Theory is a theory of evolutionary dynamics that was developed by American biologist and complexity theorist Stuart Kauffman. The theory is based on the idea that complex systems can self-organize and evolve over time in response to their environment. Kauffman's Game Theory is used to explain how complex systems such as ecosystems, social networks, and markets can emerge and evolve without the need for outside intervention. The theory suggests that the emergence of complexity is a result of the interactions between the elements of the system, and that the system is capable of self-organization and adaptation. Kauffman's Game Theory has been used to explain a wide range of phenomena, from the evolution of species to the emergence of new technologies.。
Chess is a game of strategy and intellect that has been played for centuries.It is a game that requires patience,foresight,and a deep understanding of the various pieces and their movements.Here is a detailed essay on the game of chess,written in English with a French influence:IntroductionChess,known as Le jeu déchecs in French,is a game that transcends cultural and linguistic barriers.It is a testament to the universal appeal of strategic thinking and the human desire to compete in a game of wits.HistoryThe origins of chess can be traced back to the6th century in India,where it was known as Chaturanga.Over time,the game evolved and spread to Persia,where it became known as Shatranj.The modern version of chess,as we know it today,took shape in Europe during the late Middle Ages.ObjectiveThe primary objective of chess is to checkmate the opponents king.This is achieved by placing the king under attack in such a way that it cannot escape capture,even with the most advantageous moves.Board and PiecesThe chessboard is an8x8grid,traditionally colored in alternating light and dark squares. Each player starts with16pieces:one king,one queen,two rooks,two knights,two bishops,and eight pawns.The pieces are arranged in a specific formation,with the king and queen in the center,flanked by the other pieces.Movement of PiecesLe Roi The King:The king moves one square in any direction.It is the most important piece,as the game is won or lost based on its safety.La Reine The Queen:The queen is the most powerful piece on the board,capable of moving any number of squares in a straight line,either horizontally,vertically,or diagonally.Les Tours The Rooks:Rooks move horizontally or vertically across any number of squares,limited only by other pieces.Les Cavaliers The Knights:Knights have a unique Lshaped movement,moving two squares in one direction and then one square perpendicular to that direction.Les Fous The Bishops:Bishops move diagonally across any number of squares,similar to the queen but only in diagonal lines.Les Pions The Pawns:Pawns move forward one square,but capture diagonally.They also have the special ability to promote to any other piece except the king if they reach the opponents back rank.Special MovesLe Saut du Cavalier Knights Move:This is the only move that can jump over other pieces.Le Saut en Passant En Passant:A pawn can capture an enemy pawn that has moved two squares forward from its starting position,as if the enemy pawn had only moved one square.La Castling Castling:This is a move where the king and a rook move simultaneously, allowing the king to move two squares towards the rook,which then moves to the other side of the king.Strategic ElementsChess is not just about moving pieces it is about strategy and tactics.Players must consider their moves several steps ahead,anticipating their opponents moves and planning their own.Key strategic elements include control of the center of the board, piece coordination,and king safety.ConclusionChess is a game that rewards patience,foresight,and strategic thinking.It is a game that can be enjoyed by people of all ages and backgrounds,offering endless opportunities for learning and improvement.Whether played in a park,a school,or a grand tournament, chess remains a beloved and enduring pastime.。
gametheoryGame Theory and its ApplicationsIntroductionGame theory is a branch of mathematics that explores strategic decision-making among rational individuals or groups. It analyzes how people make decisions when they are aware of the actions and motivations of others. This field primarily focuses on understanding and predicting the outcomes of situations where multiple decision-makers interact and compete with each other. It has wide-ranging applications in various fields, such as economics, politics, biology, computer science, and psychology. This document will provide an overview of game theory, its key concepts, and some of its important applications.Key Concepts in Game Theory1. Players: In game theory, players are the individuals or groups who make decisions. They can be individuals, firms, governments, or any other decision-making entity.2. Strategies: A strategy is a plan of action adopted by a player. It represents a sequence of choices that a player can make, taking into account the actions of other players.3. Payoffs: Payoffs are the outcomes or rewards associated with different combinations of strategies chosen by the players. They could represent financial gains, utility, or any other measure of success.4. Normal Form Games: Normal form games are the simplest and most common representation of games in game theory. These games are defined by a matrix that shows all possible combinations of strategies and their corresponding payoffs for each player.5. Dominant Strategy: A dominant strategy is a strategy that yields a higher payoff for a player, regardless of the strategies chosen by other players.Applications of Game Theory1. Economics: Game theory plays a crucial role in understanding and predicting economic behavior. It is used to analyze market competition, pricing strategies, bargaining situations, and the behavior of firms in oligopolistic markets.Game theory also helps in designing auctions and evaluating various economic policies.2. Political Science: Game theory provides insights into political decision-making and strategic interactions between different political actors. It helps in understanding election campaigns, legislative behavior, international negotiations, and the dynamics of conflicts.3. Biology: Evolutionary game theory is applied in biology to study the evolution of animal behavior. It helps in understanding behaviors such as cooperation, competition, and altruism. Game theory models are used to analyze phenomena like the evolution of cooperation in social insects, the emergence of cooperation in animal groups, and the evolution of mating strategies.4. Computer Science: Game theory is relevant in computer science for designing algorithms and protocols for various applications. It is used in designing mechanisms for resource allocation, routing in computer networks, and scheduling of tasks. Game theory also plays a role in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and multi-agent systems.5. Psychology: Game theory provides a framework to study decision-making and social interactions in psychology. It helps psychologists understand human behavior in situations involving cooperation, trust, strategic thinking, and competition. Game theory models are used to study phenomena like the prisoner's dilemma, trust games, and ultimatum games.ConclusionGame theory is a powerful tool for analyzing and understanding decision-making in situations where multiple players interact. It has extensive applications in various fields, including economics, political science, biology, computer science, and psychology. By studying strategic interactions and predicting the outcomes of different scenarios, game theory helps in making informed decisions and designing effective strategies. Further research and advancements in game theory will continue to contribute to our understanding of complex decision-making processes.。
Game Theory in Supply Chain Analysis∗G´e rard P.Cachon†and Serguei Netessine‡The Wharton SchoolUniversity of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphia,PA19104-6366February2003AbstractGame theory has become an essential tool in the analysis of supply chains with multiple agents,often with conflicting objectives.This chapter surveys the applications of game theoryto supply chain analysis and outlines game-theoretic concepts that have potential for futureapplication.We discuss both non-cooperative and cooperative game theory in static anddynamic settings.Careful attention is given to techniques for demonstrating the existenceand uniqueness of equilibrium in non-cooperative games.A newsvendor game is employedthroughout to demonstrate the application of various tools.∗This is an invited chapter for the book“Supply Chain Analysis in the eBusiness Era”edited by David Simchi-Levi,S.David Wu and Zuo-Jun(Max)Shen,to be published by Kluwer.http://www.ise.ufl.edu/shen/handbook/†cachon@ and /˜cachon‡netessine@ and 1IntroductionGame theory(hereafter GT)is a powerful tool for analyzing situations in which the decisions of multiple agents affect each agent’s payoff.As such,GT deals with interactive optimization prob-lems.While many economists in the past few centuries have worked on what can be considered game-theoretic(hereafter G-T)models,John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern are formally credited as the fathers of modern game theory.Their classic book“Theory of Games and Economic Behavior”(von Neumann and Morgenstern1944)summarizes the basic concepts existing at that time.GT has since enjoyed an explosion of developments,including the concept of equilibrium (Nash1950),games with imperfect information(Kuhn1953),cooperative games(Aumann1959 and Shubik1962)and auctions(Vickrey1961),to name just a few.Citing Shubik(2002),“In the 50s...game theory was looked upon as a curiosum not to be taken seriously by any behavioral scientist.By the late1980s,game theory in the new industrial organization has taken over...game theory has proved its success in many disciplines.”This chapter has two goals.In our experience with G-T problems we have found that many of the useful theoretical tools are spread over dozens of papers and books,buried among other tools that are not as useful in supply chain management(hereafter SCM).Hence,ourfirst goal is to construct a brief tutorial through which SCM researchers can quickly locate G-T tools and apply G-T concepts.We hope this tutorial helps a SCM researcher quickly apply G-T concepts.Due to the need for short explanations,we omit all proofs,choosing to focus only on the intuition behind the results we discuss.Our second goal is to provide ample(but by no means exhaustive)references on the specific applications of various G-T techniques that could be utilized.These references offer an in-depth understanding of an application where necessary.Finally,we intentionally do not explore the implications of G-T analysis on supply chain management,but rather,we emphasize the means of conducting the analysis too keep the exposition short.1.1Scope and relation to the literatureThere are many G-T concepts,but this chapter focuses on static non-cooperative,non-zero sum games,the concept which has received the most attention in the recent SCM literature.However, we also discuss cooperative games,dynamic(including differential)games,and games with asym-metric/incomplete information.We omit discussion of important G-T concepts that are covered in other chapters in this book:auctions are addressed in Chapters4and10;principal-agent models are covered in Chapter3;and bargaining is covered extensively in Chapter11.Certain types ofgames have not yet found application in SCM,so we avoid these as well(e.g.,zero-sum games and games in extensive form).The material in this chapter was collected predominantly from Moulin(1986),Friedman(1986), Fudenberg and Tirole(1991),Vives(1999)and Myerson(1997).Some previous surveys of G-T models in management science include Lucas’s(1971)survey of mathematical theory of games, Feichtinger and Jorgensen’s(1983)survey of differential games and Wang and Parlar’s(1989)survey of static models.A recent survey by Li and Whang(2001)focuses on application of G-T tools in five specific OR/MS models.1.2Game setupTo break the ground for our next section on non-cooperative games,we conclude this section by introducing basic GT notation.A warning to the reader:to achieve brevity,we intentionally sac-rifice some precision in our presentation.See texts like Friedman(1986)and Fudenberg and Tirole (1991)if more precision is required.Throughout this chapter we represent games in the normal form.A game in the normal form consists of(1)players(indexed by i=1,...,n),(2)strategies(or more generally a set of strategies denoted by x i,i=1,...,n)available to each player and(3)payoffs(πi(x1,x2,...,x n),i=1,...,n) received by each player.Each strategy is defined on a set X i,x i∈X i,so we call the Cartesian prod-uct X1×X2×...×X n the strategy space(typically the strategy space is R n).Each player may have a unidimensional strategy or a multi-dimensional strategy.However,in simultaneous-move games each player’s set of feasible strategies is independent of the strategies chosen by the other players, i.e.,the strategy choice by one player is not allowed to limit the feasible strategies of another player.A player’s strategy can be thought of as the complete instruction for which actions to take in a game.For example,a player can give his or her strategy to a person that has absolutely no knowl-edge of the player’s payoffor preferences and that person should be able to use the instructions contained in the strategy to choose the actions the player desires.Because each player’s strategy is a complete guide to the actions that are to be taken,in the normal form the players choose their strategies simultaneously.Actions are adopted after strategies are chosen and those actions correspond to the chosen strategies.As an alternative to the“one-shot”selection of strategies in the normal form,a game can also berepresented in extensive form.Here players choose actions only as needed,i.e.,they do not make an a priori commitment to actions for any possible sample path.Extensive form games have not been studied in SCM,so we focus only on normal form games.The normal form can also be described as a static game,in contrast to the extensive form which is a dynamic game.If the strategy has no randomly determined choices,it is called a pure strategy;otherwise it is called a mixed strategy.There are situations in economics and marketing that have applied mixed strategies:e.g.,search models(Varian1980)and promotion models(Lal1990).However,mixed strategies have not been applied in SCM,in part because it is not clear how a manager would actu-ally implement a mixed strategy.(For example,it seems unreasonable to suggest that a manager should“flip a coin”when choosing capacity.)Fortunately,mixed strategy equilibria do not exist in games with a unique pure strategy equilibrium.Hence,in those games attention can be restricted to pure strategies without loss of generality.Therefore,in the remainder of this chapter we consider only pure strategies.In a non-cooperative game the players are unable to make binding commitments regarding which strategy they will choose before they actually choose their strategies.In a cooperative game players are able to make these binding commitments.Hence,in a cooperative game players can make side-payments and form coalitions.We begin our analysis with non-cooperative static games.In all sections except the last one we work with the games of complete information,i.e.,the players’strategies and payoffs are common knowledge to all players.As a practical example throughout this chapter,we utilize the classic newsvendor problem trans-formed into a game.In the absence of competition each newsvendor buys Q units of a single product at the beginning of a single selling season.Demand during the season is a random variable D with distribution function F D and density function f D.Each unit is purchased for c and sold on the market for r>c.The newsvendor solves the following optimization problemmax Q π=maxQE D[r min(D,Q)−cQ],with the unique solutionQ∗=F−1Dµr−c r¶.(Goodwill penalty costs and salvage revenues can easily be incorporated into the analysis,but for our needs we normalized them out.)Now consider the G-T version of the newsvendor problem with two retailers competing on product availability.(See Parlar 1988for the first analysis of this problem,which is also one of the first articles modeling inventory management in a G-T framework).It is useful to consider only the two-player version of this game because only then are graphical analysis and interpretations feasi-ble.Denote the two players by subscripts i,j =1,2,i =j,their strategies (in this case stocking quantities)by Q i and their payo ffs by πi .We introduce interdependence of the players’payo ffs by assuming the two newsvendors sell the same product.As a result,if retailer i is out of stock,all unsatis fied customers try to buy the product at retailer j instead .Hence,retailer i ’s total demand is D i +(D j −Q j )+:the sum of his own demand and the demand from customers not satis fied by retailer j .Payo ffs to the two playersare then πi (Q i ,Q j )=E D h r i min ³D i +(D j −Q j )+,Q i ´−c i Q i i ,i,j =1,2.2Non-cooperative static gamesIn non-cooperative static games the players choose strategies simultaneously and are thereafter committed to their chosen strategies.Non-cooperative GT seeks a rational prediction of how the game will be played in practice.1The solution concept for these games was formally introduced by John Nash (1950)although some instances of using similar concepts date back a couple of centuries.The concept is best described through best response functions .D efinition 1.Given the n −player game,player i ’s best response (function)to the strategies x −i of the other players is the strategy x ∗i that maximizes player i 0s payo ffπi (x i ,x −i ):x ∗i (x −i )=arg max x iπi (x i ,x −i ).If πi is quasi-concave in x i the best response is uniquely de fined by the first-order conditions.In the context of our competing newsvendors example,the best response functions can be found by optimizing each player”s payo fffunctions w.r.t.the player’s own decision variable Q i while taking the competitor’s strategy Q j as given.The resulting best response functions are Q ∗i (Q j )=F −1D i +(D j −Q j )+µr i −c i r i¶,i,j =1,2.1Some may argue that GT should be a tool for choosing how a manager should play a game,which may involve playing against rational or semi-rational players.In some sense there is no con flict between these descriptive and normative roles for GT,but this philisophical issue surely requires more in-depth treatment than can be a fforded here.Taken together,the two best response functions form a best response mapping R2→R2(or in the more general case R n→R n).Clearly,the best response is the best player i can hope for given the decisions of other players.Naturally,an outcome in which all players choose their best responses is a candidate for the non-cooperative solution.Such an outcome is called a Nash equilibrium (hereafter NE)of the game.D efinition2.An outcome(x∗1,x∗2,...,x∗n)is a Nash equilibrium of the game if x∗i is a best response to x∗−i for all i=1,2,...,n.Going back to competing newsvendors,NE is characterized by solving a system of best responses that translates into the system offirst-order conditions:Q∗1(Q∗2)=F−1D1+(D2−Q∗2)+µr1−c1r1¶,Q∗2(Q∗1)=F−1D2+(D1−Q∗1)+µr2−c2r2¶.When analyzing games with two players it is often instrumental to graph the best response functions to gain intuition.Best responses are typically defined implicitly through thefirst-order conditions, which makes analysis difficult.Nevertheless,we can gain intuition byfinding out how each player reacts to an increase in the stocking quantity by the other player(i.e.,∂Q∗i(Q j)/∂Q j)through employing implicit differentiation as follows:∂Q∗i(Q j)∂Q j =−∂2πii j∂πi2i=−r i f Di+(D j−Q j)+|D j>Q j(Q i)Pr(D j>Q j)r i f Di+(D j−Q j)+(Q i)<0.(1)The expression says that the slopes of the best response functions are negative,which implies an intuitive result that each player’s best response is monotonically decreasing in the other player’s strategy.Figure1presents this result for the symmetric newsvendor game.The equilibrium is located on the intersection of the best responses and we also see that the best responses are,indeed, decreasing.One way to think about a NE is as afixed point of the best response mapping R n→R n.Indeed, according to the definition,NE must satisfy the system of equations∂πi/∂x i=0,all i.Recall that afixed point x of mapping f(x),R n→R n is any x such that f(x)=x.Define f i(x1,...,x n)=∂πi/∂x i+x i.By the definition of afixed point,f i(x∗1,...,x∗n)=x∗i=∂πi(x∗1,...,x∗n)/∂x i+x∗i→∂πi(x∗1,...,x∗n)/∂x i=0,all i.Hence,x∗solves thefirst-order conditions if and only if it is afixed point of mapping f(x)defined above.Figure1.Best responses in the newsvendor game.The concept of NE is intuitively appealing.Indeed,it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.To explain, suppose a player were to guess the strategies of the other players.A guess would be consistent with payoffmaximization(and therefore reasonable)only if it presumes that strategies are chosen to maximize every player’s payoffgiven the chosen strategies.In other words,with any set of strategies that is not a NE there exists at least one player that is choosing a non payoffmaximizing strategy.Moreover,the NE has a self-enforcing property:no player wants to unilaterally deviate from it since such behavior would lead to lower payoffs.Hence NE seems to be the necessary condition for the prediction of any rational behavior by players.While attractive,numerous criticisms of the NE concept exist.Two particularly vexing problems are the non-existence of equilibrium and the multiplicity of equilibria.Without the existence of an equilibrium,little can be said regarding the likely outcome of the game.If there are multiple equilibria,then it is not clear which one will be the outcome.Indeed,it is possible the outcome is not even an equilibrium because the players may choose strategies from different equilibria.In some situations it is possible to rationalize away some equilibria via a refinement of the NE concept:e.g., trembling hand perfect equilibrium(Selten1975),sequential equilibrium(Kreps and Wilson1982) and proper equilibria(Myerson1997).In fact,it may even be possible to use these refinements to the point that only a unique equilibrium remains.However,these refinements have generally not been applied or needed in the SCM literature.22These refinements eliminate equilibria that are based on incredible threats,i.e.,threats of future actions that would not actually be adopted if the sequence of event in the game led to a point in the game in which those actions could be taken.This issue has not appeared in the SCM literature.An interesting feature of the NE concept is that the system optimal solution(a solution that maximizes the total payoffto all players)need not be a NE.Hence,decentralized decision making generally introduces inefficiency in the supply chain.(There are,however,some exceptions:see Mahajan and van Ryzin1999b and Netessine and Zhang2003for situations in which competition may result in the system-optimal performance).In fact,a NE may not even be on the Pareto frontier:the set of strategies such that each player can be made better offonly if some other player is made worse off.A set of strategies is Pareto optimal if they are on the Pareto frontier; otherwise a set of strategies is Pareto inferior.Hence,a NE can be Pareto inferior.The Prisoner’s Dilemma game is the classic example of this:only one pair of strategies is Pareto optimal(both “cooperate”),and the unique Nash equilibrium(both“defect”)is Pareto inferior.A large body of the SCM literature deals with ways to align the incentives of competitors to achieve optimality(see Cachon2002for a comprehensive survey and taxonomy).In the newsvendor game one could verify that the competitive solution is different from the centralized solution as well,but this issue is not the focus of this chapter.2.1Existence of equilibriumA NE is a solution to a system of n equations(first-order conditions),so an equilibrium may not exist.Non-existence of an equilibrium is potentially a conceptual problem since in this case it is not clear what the outcome of the game will be.However,in many games a NE does exist and there are some reasonably simple ways to show that at least one NE exists.As already mentioned,a NE is afixed point of the best response mapping.Hencefixed point theorems can be used to estab-lish the existence of an equilibrium.There are three keyfixed point theorems,named after their creators:Brouwer,Kakutani and Tarski.(See Border1999for details and references.)However, direct application offixed point theorems is somewhat inconvenient and hence generally not done (see Lederer and Li1997and Majumder and Groenevelt2001a for existence proofs that are based on Brouwer’sfixed point theorem).Alternative methods,derived from thesefixed point theorems, have been developed.The simplest(and the most widely used)technique for demonstrating the existence of NE is through verifying concavity of the players’payoffs,which implies continuous best response functions.T heorem1(Debreu1952).Suppose that for each player the strategy space is compact and convex and the payofffunction is continuous and quasi-concave with respect to each player’s own strategy. Then there exists at least one pure strategy NE in the game.If the game is symmetric (i.e.,if the players’strategies and payo ffs are identical),one would imagine that a symmetric solution should exist.This is indeed the case,as the next Theorem ascertains.T heorem 2.Suppose that a game is symmetric and for each player the strategy space is compact and convex and the payo fffunction is continuous and quasi-concave with respect to each player’s own strategy.Then there exists at least one symmetric pure strategy NE in the game.To gain some intuition about why non-quasi-concave payo ffs may lead to non-existence of NE,suppose that in a two-player game,player 2has a bi-modal objective function with two local maxima.Furthermore,suppose that a small change in the strategy of player 1leads to a shift of the global maximum for player 2from one local maximum to another.To be more speci fic,let ussay that at x 01the global maximum x ∗2(x 01)is on the left (Figure 2)and at x 001the global maximumx ∗2(x 002)is on the right (Figure 3).Hence,a small change in x 1from x 01to x 001induces a jump in the best response of player 2,x ∗2.The resulting best response mapping is presented in Figure 4and there is no NE in pure strategies in this game.As a more speci fic example,see Netessine and Shumsky (2001)for an extension of the newsvendor game to the situation in which product inventory is sold at two di fferent prices;such game may not have a NE since both players’objectives may be bimodal.Furthermore,Cachon and Harker (2002)demonstrate that pure strategy NE may not exist in two other important settings:two retailers competing with cost functions described by the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)or two service providers competing with service times described by the M/M/1queuing model.(2π12Figure 2."(12x π12Figure 3.Figure 4.The assumption of a compact strategy space may seem restrictive.For example,in the newsvendorgame the strategy space R 2+is not bounded from above.However,we could easily bound it withsome large enough finite number to represent the upper bound on the demand distribution.That bound would not impact any of the choices,and therefore the transformed game behaves just as the original game with an unbounded strategy space.To continue with the newsvendor game analysis,it is easy to verify that the newsvendor’s objective function is concave(and hence quasi-concave)w.r.t.the stocking quantity by taking the second derivative.Hence the conditions of Theorem1are satisfied and a NE exists.There are virtually dozens of papers employing Theorem1(see,for example,Lippman and McCardle1997for the proof involving quasi-concavity,Mahajan and van Ryzin1999a and Netessine et al.2002for the proofs involving concavity).Clearly,quasi-concavity of each player’s objective function only implies uniqueness of the best response but does not imply a unique NE.One can easily envision a situation where unique best response functions cross more than once so that there are multiple equilibria(see Figure5).Figure5.Non-uniqueness of the equlibrium.If quasi-concavity of the players’payoffs cannot be verified,there is an alternative existence proof that relies on Tarski’s(1955)fixed point theorem and involves the notion of supermodular games. The theory of supermodular games is a relatively recent development introduced and advanced by Topkis(1998).Roughly speaking,Tarski’sfixed point theorem only requires best response map-pings to be non-decreasing for the existence of equilibrium and does not require quasi-concavity of the players’payoffs(hence,it allows for jumps in best responses).While it may be hard to believe that non-decreasing best responses is the only requirement for the existence of a NE,consider once again the simplest form of a single-dimensional equilibrium as a solution to thefixed point mapping x=f(x)on the compact set.It is easy to verify after a few attempts that if f(x)is non-decreasing (but possibly with jumps up)then it is not possible to derive a situation without an equilibrium. However,when f(x)jumps down,non-existence is possible(see Figures6and7).Hence,increasing best response functions is the only(major)requirement for an equilibrium to exist;players’objectives do not have to be quasi-concave or even continuous.However,to describe an existence theorem with non-continuous payoffs requires the introduction of terms and definitions from lattice theory.As a result,we shall restrict ourselves to the assumption of continuous payofffunctions,and in particular,to twice-differentiable payofffunctions.Figure6.Increasing mapping.Figure7.Decreasing mapping.D efinition3.A twice continuously differentiable payofffunctionπi(x1,...,x n)is supermodular (submodular)iff∂2πi/∂x i∂x j≥0(≤0)for all x and all j=i.The game is called supermodular ifthe players’payoffs are supermodular.Supermodularity essentially means complementarity between any two strategies and is not linked directly to either convexity or concavity.However,similar to concavity/convexity,supermodular-ity/submodularity is preserved under maximization,limits and addition(and hence under expecta-tion/integration signs,an important feature in stochastic SCM models).While in most situations the sign of the second derivative can be used to verify supermodularity,sometimes it is necessary to utilize supermodularity-preserving transformations to show that payoffs are supermodular.Topkis (1998)provides a variety of ways to verify that the function is supermodular(some of his results are used in Netessine and Shumsky2001and Netessine and Rudi2003).The following theorem follows directly from Tarski’sfixed point result and provides another tool to show existence of NE in non-cooperative games:T heorem3.In a supermodular game there exists at least one NE.Coming back to the competitive newsvendors example,recall that the second-order cross-partial derivative was found to be∂2πi i j =−r i f Di+(D j−Q j)+|D j>Q j(Q i)Pr(D j>Q j)<0,so that the newsvendor game is submodular(and hence existence of equilibrium cannot be assured, recall Figure7).However,a standard trick is to re-define the ordering of the players’strategies. Let y=−Q j so that∂2πii =−r i f Di+(D j+y)+|D j>Q j(Q i)Pr(D j>−y)>0,so that the game becomes supermodular in(x i,y)and existence of NE is assured.Obviously,thistrick only works in two-player games(see also Lippman and McCardle1997for the analysis of themore general version of the newsvendor game using a similar transformation).Hence,we can statethat in general NE exists in games with decreasing best responses(submodular games)with twoplayers.This argument can be generalized slightly in two ways that we mention briefly(see Vives1999for details).One way is to consider an n−player game where best responses are functionsof aggregate actions of all other players,that is,x∗i=x∗i³P j=i x j´.If best responses in such a game are decreasing,then NE exists.Another generalization is to consider the same game withx∗i=x∗i³P j=i x j´but require symmetry.In such a game,existence can be shown even with non-monotone best responses provided that there are only jumps up(but on intervals between jumps best responses can be increasing or decreasing).2.2Uniqueness of equilibriumFrom the perspective of generating qualitative insights,it is quite useful to have a game with a unique NE.If there is only one equilibrium,then you can characterize the actions in that equilibrium and claim with some confidence that those actions should indeed be observed in practice.Unfortunately, demonstrating uniqueness is generally harder than demonstrating existence of equilibrium.This section provides several methods for proving uniqueness.No single method dominates;all may have to be tried tofind the one that works.Furthermore,one should be careful to recognize that these methods assume existence,i.e.,existence of NE must be shown separately.2.2.1Method1.Algebraic argument.In some rather fortunate situations one can ascertain that the solution is unique by simply looking at the optimality conditions.For example,in a two-player game the optimality condition of one of the players may have a unique closed-form solution that does not depend on the other player’s strategy and,given the solution for one player,the optimality condition for the second player can be solved uniquely.See Hall and Porteus(2000)and Netessine and Rudi(2001)for examples. In other cases one can assure uniqueness by analyzing geometrical properties of the best response functions and arguing that they intersect only once.(Of course,this is only feasible in two-player games.See Parlar1988for a proof of uniqueness in the two-player newsvendor game and Majumder and Groenevelt2001b for a supply chain game with competition in reverse logistics.)However,in most situations these geometrical properties are also implied by the more formal arguments stated below.Finally,it may be possible to use a contradiction argument:assume that there is more than one equilibrium and prove that such an assumption leads to a contradiction,as in Lederer and Li(1997).2.2.2Method2.Contraction mapping argument.Although the most restrictive among all methods,the contraction mapping argument is the most widely known and is the most frequently used in the literature because it is the easiest to verify. The argument is based on showing that the best response mapping is a contraction,which then implies the mapping has a uniquefixed point.To illustrate the concept of a contraction mapping, suppose we would like tofind a solution to the followingfixed point equation:x=f(x),x∈R1.To do so,a sequence of values is generated by an iterative algorithm,{x(1),x(2),x(3),...}where x(1)is arbitrarily picked and x(t)=f³x(t−1)´.The hope is that this sequence converges to a uniquefixed point.It does so if,roughly speaking,each step in the sequence moves closer to thefixed point. One could verify that if|f0(x)|<1in some vicinity of x∗then such an iterative algorithm converges to a unique x∗=f(x∗).Otherwise,the algorithm diverges.Graphically,the equilibrium point is located on the intersection of two functions:x and f(x).The iterative algorithm is presented in Figures8and9.Figure8.Convergingiterations.Figure9.Diverging iterations.The iterative scheme in Figure8is a contraction mapping:it approaches the equilibrium after every iteration.D efinition4.Mapping f(x),R n→R n is a contraction iffk f(x1)−f(x2)k≤αk x1−x2k,∀x1,x2,α<1.In words,the application of a contraction mapping to any two points strictly reduces(i.e.,α=1 does not work)the distance between these points.The norm in the definition can be any norm,。
Game Theory Advances and Applications Game theory has advanced significantly over the years, and its applications have become increasingly prevalent in various fields such as economics, political science, biology, and computer science. This has led to a deeper understanding of strategic decision-making and the interactions between rational decision-makers. One of the key advancements in game theory is the development of more sophisticated models that better capture the complexities of real-world situations. These advancements have allowed for more accurate predictions and better-informed decision-making in a wide range of scenarios.From an economic perspective, game theory has provided valuable insights into market behavior and competition. The concept of Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Nash, has been particularly influential in understanding strategic interactions between firms. By analyzing the incentives and payoffs of different strategies, game theory has helped economists to better understand how firms compete, set prices, and make strategic decisions. This has led to more efficient markets and a deeper understanding of how firms behave in various competitive environments.In political science, game theory has been used to analyze voting behavior, bargaining, and conflict resolution. The study of strategic voting, for example, has been greatly enhanced by game theory, allowing researchers to better understand how voters strategically choose candidates based on their preferences and beliefs about others' voting behavior. Additionally, game theory has been instrumental in the study of international relations, providing insights into how countries engage in negotiations, alliances, and conflicts. By modeling these interactions as strategic games, political scientists have been able to gain a deeper understanding of the incentives and strategies of different actors on the global stage.In biology, game theory has been used to study evolutionary dynamics and the behavior of living organisms. The concept of evolutionary game theory has provided a framework for understanding how different strategies for survival and reproduction evolve over time. By modeling interactions between individuals or species as strategic games, biologists have been able to gain insights into the emergence of cooperation, altruism, andcompetition in natural populations. This has led to a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving evolutionary processes and the dynamics of ecological systems.In computer science, game theory has been applied to the study of algorithms, artificial intelligence, and multi-agent systems. The concept of algorithmic game theory has provided a framework for analyzing the strategic interactions between computational agents and the design of algorithms that perform well in strategic environments. This has led to the development of better decision-making algorithms, automated negotiation systems, and intelligent agents that can effectively interact with other agents in complex environments. Additionally, game theory has been instrumental in the study of mechanism design, providing insights into how to design systems that incentivize rational behavior and achieve desirable outcomes.In conclusion, game theory has advanced significantly and has found applications in a wide range of fields, including economics, political science, biology, and computer science. The development of more sophisticated models and the application of game-theoretic concepts have led to a deeper understanding of strategic decision-making and the interactions between rational decision-makers. This has resulted in more accurate predictions, better-informed decision-making, and the development of more efficient and effective systems in various domains. As game theory continues to evolve, it is likely to have an even greater impact on our understanding of strategic interactions and the design of systems in the future.。
中文摘要最近四五十年,经济学经历了一场博弈论革命。
1994年度的诺贝尔经济学奖授予三位博弈论专家,2005年度的诺贝尔经济学奖又授予两位博弈论专家,可以看做博弈论成熟的标志。
这也更大激发了人们了解博弈论的热情。
现在的博弈论研究,特别是国内的应用研究,只知道在数学上折腾,不知道博弈的思想更加重要,不知道还可以通过博弈思维去破译诸多社会现象、文化现象。
“当代最后一个经济学全才”保罗.萨缪尔森教授,在他生命的最后年月,告诫我们说:“要想在现代社会做一个有文化的人,你必须对博弈论有一个大致的了解。
”在许多人纠结于关于博弈论一系列的表格、图形、模型时,他们忽视了很重要的一点,其实博弈就存在于我们身边,存在于生活中的各个角落。
商业竞争、政治选举、职场生存、婚姻经营、朋友相处,就像两人对弈,常常是相当人格化的竞争。
博弈贯穿于我们的生活。
本文将通过几个经典的例子及日常生活中的现象对博弈进行分析。
关键词:博弈论;模型;无处不在ABSTRACTThe last forty or fifty years, has experienced a revolution in game theory of economics. 1994 Nobel economics prize was awarded to three game-theory experts, 2005 Nobel Prize in economics awarded two experts on game theory, game theory can be thought of as a sign of maturity. Larger fires the enthusiasm of people about the game.Now, on game theory, especially applied research, just tossing in mathematics, does not know the games are more important, don't know what else can be done by game thought to decipher the many social and cultural phenomena. "Contemporary last generalist in economics" Professor Paul.Samuelson, in the last years of his life, told us: "If you want to become a literate person in modern society, you have to have a general understanding of game theory. ”Many people struggling with on a series of tables, graphics, game theory models, they ignore a very important point, in fact games around, exists in every corner of life. Business competition, political elections, survival, marriage and business career, friends, like two people plays chess, personification is often quite competitive. Game runs through our lives. This article through several classic examples of analysis and phenomena of everyday life on the game.Key words:Game theory, model and prevasiveness无处不在的博弈一、引言“博弈论”原本是数学的一个分支但由于它较好地解决了对竞争等问题的可操作性分析,成为经济学中激荡人心的一个研究领域。
Game theory and speculation on government bondsDavid Carfìa ,Francesco Musolino b ,⁎a Department of Mathematics,University of California at Riverside 900Big Springs Road,Surge 231Riverside CA 92521‐0135,USA bUniversity of Messina,Piazza Pugliatti,98122Messina,Italya b s t r a c ta r t i c l e i n f o Article history:Accepted 17June 2012Keywords:Financial Markets Financial Risk Financial Crises Game Theory SpeculationGovernment BondsThe aim of this paper is to propose a method to stabilize the rapid variations on the value of government bonds issued by the States,using Game Theory.In particular,we focus our attention on three players:a large speculative bank (hereinafter called Speculator),having immediate access to the market of government bonds,the European Central Bank (ECB)and a State in economic crisis,with a high public debt.In this regard,we will analyze the in-teraction between these three subjects:the Speculator,our first player,the ECB,our second player,and the State,our third player.The financial crisis,that hit the market of European government bonds,showed us that large speculators can in fluence the financial markets and bene fit from the creation of arbitrage opportunities caused by themselves.In this way,the default probability of States in economic dif ficulty increases signi ficantly and alarmingly.We already heard to talk about concepts like “spread ”and “public debt,”which has crippled the econ-omies of great States,for instance Italy.In this paper we propose on financial transactions the introduction of a tax,which hits only the speculative pro fits.We show how the above tax would probably be able to avert the speculation.For this purpose,we compare the different behaviors adopted by the Speculator and by the ECB in case of absence or presence of the tax,with the consequent effects on the State that sells its government bonds,paying particular attention to the movement of the game equilibria.In fact,with the introduction of our tax,all equilibria of the game become excellent for the State in economic dif ficulty.©2012Elsevier B.V.All rights reserved.1.IntroductionLately,the global economic crisis is increased,affecting even States considered very important in the economy (as for example Italy).One of the causes of the crisis is the exponential growth in government bonds yields,which have increased the public debt (up to May 2011the Italian government bonds offered a yield of approximately 4.80%,while in December 2011it rose above the 7.50%).Fig.1,made by Richard Portes,Professor of Economics at London Business School,shows the Ital-ian situation (see /news/in-pictures-16090055).In this regard,with our model (for a complete study of a game see Agreste et al.,2012;Baglieri et al.,2012;Carfì,2008,2009a,b,c,2010;Carfìand Musolino,2011a,b,2012a,b,c,d,submitted for publication-a,submitted for publication-b,submitted for publication-c;Carfìand Ricciardello 2010,2012a,b;Carfìand Schilirò,2012a,b;Musolino,2012,submitted for publication ),we intend to propose a possible meth-od to stabilize the government bonds markets of the States in economic dif ficulty,without any losses of collective gain.In this way,with the in-troduction of a simple but effective tax,the market would be able by it-self to reduce yields on government bonds,without further economic measures at global level:thus the States in financial dif ficulty could fi-nally begin (hopefully)a slow but steady economic recovery.2.MethodologiesThe normal-form game G ,that we propose to model our financial interaction,requires a construction which takes place 3times,which we say time 0,time 1/2and time 1.•At time 0the Speculator (the first player)can decide:1)to sell short government bonds,in order to obtain greater pro fitbetting on a greater future yield of the bonds;2)not to intervene in the government bonds market.•At time 1/2the ECB may decide to intervene in the bonds market in order to limit the growth of the bonds yield.In this way,even in case of lack of demand of government bonds,the issuer State finds the funds necessary to the national financial requirement.•At time 1the Speculator must eventually close its position (opened at time 0),by buying government bonds.Remark.During the game,we will refer to an interest rate i which de-termines the yield on government bonds.When we pass from one time period to another one,we should actualize or capitalize the values that must be “transferred ”.But because the interest rate i u ,usually adopted in the capitalizations and discounts in our financial markets,is much lower than that one we use to get the yield of government bonds,we as-sume i u equal to 0.Therefore,in this model,the values referred to differ-ent time period are not capitalized or discounted.Economic Modelling 29(2012)2417–2426⁎Corresponding author.E-mail addresses:davidcar fi71@yahoo.it (D.Carfì),francescomusolino@hotmail.it (F.Musolino).0264-9993/$–see front matter ©2012Elsevier B.V.All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.06.037Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirectEconomic Modellingj o u r n a l h o m e p a ge :w w w.e l s e v i e r.c o m/l o c a t e /e c m o d3.Financial preliminariesHere we recall the financial concepts that we shall use in the present article.1.M represents the quantity expressed in money of issued bonds (for example Italy has to issue a quantity equal to M of government bonds in order to face its financial commitments).2.Short selling of bonds is a financial transaction involving the sale of bonds without having their property,hoping to buy them later at a lower price.So the short seller would realize a pro fit.In the event that we examine,talking about government bonds,the hope of short sellers consists in an increase of the yield on government bonds.3.The government bonds are not normal goods with a purchase price and a sale price.The concept that characterizes them is the yield,which depends upon the interest to which they are sold.The yield on a government bond is given by the interest that remunerates the capital “loaned ”to the State.4.The description of the gameOur first player,the Speculator,may choose to sell short government bonds,in order to cause an increase in their yield and so to obtain a prof-it.In fact,at time 1the Speculator must close the position opened in the government bonds market with a purchase transaction.Otherwise the Speculator can decide not to intervene in the government bonds market.Thus,the Speculator has the possibility to choose among the strategies x ∈[0,1]which represents the percentage of the quantity of government bonds M that the Speculator decides to buy,depending if it intends:not to make any financial transaction (x =0);to sell short government bonds (xM is the quantity of short sold bonds)(0b x ≤1).On the other hand,the European Central Bank,that is our second player,operates in the bonds market in consequence of the operation of the first player.It may choose a strategy y ∈[0,1],which represents the percentage of the quantity of government bonds M that the ECB purchases,depending if it intends:to buy government bonds of the State in economic dif ficulty (y >0);not to intervene in the govern-ment bonds market (y =0).In Fig.2we illustrate graphically the bi-strategy space E ×F of our game G .5.The no tax game5.1.The payoff function of the Speculator in the no tax gameThe payoff function of the Speculator,which is the function that represents the gain of the first player,is given by the quantity expressed in money of purchased bonds xM ,multiplied by the differ-ence R 1(x ,y )−R 0between the value at time 1of the yield to be cashed (at time 1the Speculator buys the same amount of securities that it has sold short at time 0)and the value at time 0of the yield to be paid (at time 0the Speculator sells short a certain amount of government bonds).The payoff function of the Speculator is given by:f 1x ;y ðÞ¼xM R 1x ;y ðÞ−R 0ðÞ;ð1Þwhere:1)xM is the amount of government bonds that the Speculator shortsells at time 0;2)R 1(x ,y )is the value of the government bonds yield at time 1.Wesuppose it is given byR 1x ;y ðÞ¼i þmx −ny ;where:•i is the interest that remunerates the capital “loaned ”to the State;•m is a marginal coef ficient which indicates the incidence of x on R 1(x ,y );•n is a marginal coef ficient which indicates the incidence of y on R 1(x ,y ).The government bonds yield R 1(x ,y )depends on x because if the Spec-ulator intervenes in the government bonds market with a strategy x ≠0,the yield R 1(x ,y )is modi fied because a decline in demand has a positive effect on the interest charged on the government bond.R 1(x ,y )depends on y because if the ECB intervenes in the government bonds market with a strategy y ≠0,the value R 1(x ,y )is modi fied because an increase in demand has a negative effect on the government bonds yield (the interest that remunerates the bond goes down).We are assuming by hypothesis both for x and y a linear dependence.3)R 0is the value of the government bonds yield at time 0.It is givenby R 0=i ,where i is the interest remunerating the capital that is “loaned ”to the State.R 0is a constant because our strategies x and y have not impact onit.Fig.1.The yield on Italian government bonds in2011.Fig.2.The bi-strategy space of the game.2418 D.Carfì,F.Musolino /Economic Modelling 29(2012)2417–24265.1.1.The payoff function of the Speculator in the no tax gameTherefore,recalling the function R 1,the de finition of R 0and the function f 1,we have f 1x ;y ðÞ¼xM mx −ny ðÞ:ð2Þ5.2.The payoff function of the ECB in the no tax gameThe payoff function of the ECB,that is the function representing the algebraic gain of the ECB,is given by the multiplication of the quantity expressed in money of government bonds yM (which the ECB buys at time 1/2)by the bonds yield at time 1/2,that is R 1=2x ðÞ¼i þmx :So the payoff function of the ECB is given by:f 2x ;y ðÞ¼yMR 1=2x ðÞ;ð3Þwhere:1)yM is the quantity of bonds expressed in money that the ECB buysat time 1/2;2)R 1/2(x )is the bonds yield at time 1/2.It is given by:R 1=2x ðÞ¼i þmx :The strategy x has impact on the government bonds yield at time 1/2because at time 0the Speculator has already operated in the mar-ket,changing the bonds yield.5.2.1.The payoff function of the ECBRecalling functions R 1/2and f 2,we have f 2x ;y ðÞ¼yM i þmx ðÞ:ð4Þ5.3.The payoff function of the StateIn addition to the payoff functions of the Speculator and the ECB must also be considered the payoff function of the State.It is given by the quantity M of issued government bonds,multiplied by the differ-ence between the yield R 0(which the State would pay without the in-tervention on the market of the Speculator and of the ECB)and the yield R 1(which actually pays in consequence of the strategies x of the Speculator and y of the ECB).5.3.1.Payoff function of the StateThe payoff function f (3)of the State is given by:f 3x ;y ðÞ¼M R 0−R 1x ;y ðÞðÞ:ð5ÞRecalling the de finition of R 0,the function R 1,and the function f 3,we havef 3x ;y ðÞ¼M −mx þny ðÞ:ð6ÞThe payoff function of the no tax game is so given,for every (x ,y )∈E ×F ,by:f x ;y ðÞ¼xM mx −ny ðÞ;yM i þmx ðÞ;M −mx þny ðÞðÞð7Þ6.Study of the no tax game 6.1.Critical space of the no tax gameSince we are dealing with a non-linear game,it is necessary to study in the bi-win space also the points of the critical zone that belong to the bi-strategy space.In order to find the critical area of the game,we con-sider the Jacobian matrix and we put its determinant equal 0.About the gradients of f 1and f 2,we have ∇f 1x ;y ðÞ¼M 2mx −ny ðÞ;−nxM ðÞ∇f 2x ;y ðÞ¼Mmy ;M i þmx ðÞðÞ:Let g be the vector function from the bi-strategy space into the Cartesian plane,having its components conciding with the first two components of f .The determinant of the Jacobian matrix of g is:det J g x ;y ðÞ¼M 22mx −ny ðÞi þmx ðÞþM 2mxny :Therefore,the critical space of the game is:Z g ¼x ;y ðÞ:M 22mx −ny ðÞi þmx ðÞþM 2mxny ¼0n o:Dividing by M 2m ,which are all positive numbers (strictly greater than 0),after calculations finally we have:Z g ¼x ;y ðÞ:y ¼2mx i −mx ðÞni ðÞ−2f g :Assuming that m =1/2,n =1/2and i =1/4,we obtain Z g ¼x ;y ðÞ:y ¼1=2ðÞx 2þ1=4ðÞx n o:The critical area of our bi-strategy space is represented in Fig.3by the segment [D ,H ].6.2.Payoff space of the no tax gameIn order to represent graphically the payoff space g (E ×F ),we transform,by the function g ,all the sides of bi-strategy square E ×F and the critical space Z of the game (g,>).Fig.3.The critical zone of the no tax game.2419D.Carfì,F.Musolino /Economic Modelling 29(2012)2417–2426The segment[B,C]is the set of all the bi-strategies(x,y)such that x=1and y∈[0,1].Calculating the image of the generic point(1,y), we have:g(y,1)=(M(m−ny),yM(i+m)).Therefore,setting:X¼M m−nyðÞand Y¼yM iþmðÞ;and assuming M=1,i=1/4and n=m=1/2,we haveX¼1=2−1=2ðÞy and Y¼3=4ðÞy:Replacing Y instead of y in thefirst equation,we obtain the image of the segment[B,C],defined as the set of the bi-wins(X,Y)such that X¼1=2−2=3ðÞY with Y∈0;3=4½ :It is a line segment with extremes B′=g(B)and C′=g(C).Following the procedure described above for the other sides of the bi-strategy square and for the critical space,which are the seg-ments[A,B],[C,D],[D,A]and[D,H],we obtain in Fig.4the payoff space g(E×F)of our game(g,>).We note that we get a sail-formedfigure,but the results must now be interpreted according to the payoff function of the issuer State.Recalling the function f3,and that M=1and n=m=1/2,we note that:•if the two players arrive on the points D′and B′the yield(that the issuer State must pay for its government bonds)remains unchanged because it is balanced by two equal opposing forces.This solution is un-desirable because it does not solve the problems of the State and does not give breath to its economy;•if the two players arrive on the side]B′,C′],the yield paid by the State for its government bonds increases inexorably,bringing it closer to default;•if the two players arrive in[A′,D′[,the yield paid by the State for its government bonds decreases,and thus the State could emerge from the crisis.According to these considerations,it is morally,ethically and eco-nomically desirable that the Speculator and the ECB arrive to the point A=(0,1),so that the paid yield goes down as more is possible and the State comes out of the crisis.Remark.The point A′and the point B′have the same collective gain about the three subjects of our game.In fact,if we arrive to point A′the State in economic difficulty has a profit equal to1/2,the Specula-tor wins0and the ECB wins1/4.On the contrary,if we arrive to point B′the State has a profit equal to0,the Speculator wins0and the ECB wins3/4.In both points,the total gain of the game is3/4.7.Equilibria of the no tax game7.1.Nash equilibria of the no tax gameIf the two players decide to adopt a selfish behavior,they choose their own strategy maximizing their partial gain.In this case,we should consider the classic Nash best reply correspondences.The best reply cor-respondence of the Speculator is the correspondence B1:F→E given by y↦max f1(⋅,y)E,where max f1(⋅,y)E is the set of all strategies in E which max-imize the section f1(⋅,y).Symmetrically,the best reply correspondence B2:E→F of the ECB is given by x↦max f2(x,⋅)F.Choosing M=1,n=1/2 and m=1/2,which are always positive numbers(strictly greater than 0),and recalling that f1(x,y)=xM(mx−ny),we have∂1f1(x,y)= 2mxM−nyM.We haveB1yðÞ¼1f g if y b10;1f g if y¼1:Recalling also that f2(x,y)=yM(i+mx),we have∂2f2(x,y)= M(i+mx)and so:B2xðÞ¼1f g;∀x∈E:In Fig.5we have in red the inverse graph of B1,and in blue the graph of B2.The set of Nash equilibria,that is the intersection of the two best reply graphs(graph of B2and the symmetric of B1),is Eq.B1;B2ðÞ¼1;1ðÞ;0;1ðÞf g:7.1.1.Analysis of Nash equilibriaThe Nash equilibrium B=(1,1)can be considered very good for the two players,because they are on the proper maximal Pareto boundary.It is clear that if the two players pursue as aim the profit, and decide to choose their selfish strategy to obtain the maximum possible win,they will arrive on the proper maximal Pareto bound-ary.The selfishness,in this case,pays well.But the Nash equilibrium B=(1,1)does not solve the problems of the State that issues the gov-ernment bonds,because it should pay a yield that the strategy x=1 increases,and that is returned to its original level by the strategy y=1.In a word,the State continues to fund its public spending with government bonds,yielding too high for its possibilities.In the long term the State will end on the brink of the abyss.The Nash equilibrium A=(0,1),instead,is good for the State,be-cause the yield to pay on government bonds goes downward.But the point A′is not on the maximal Paretoboundary.Fig.4.The payoff space of the no taxgame.Fig.5.The Nash equilibria of the no tax game. 2420 D.Carfì,F.Musolino/Economic Modelling29(2012)2417–2426Moreover,most likely,the Speculator will choose the strategy x=1, because the strategy x=0precludes the opportunity of profit for the Speculator,which is stuck on the ordinate axis.With x=1,instead, the Speculator tries to win something depending on the strategy of the ECB,and still manages to not lose.Basically,the most likely Nash equilibrium is the point B=(1,1):almost certainly the achievement of a Nash equilibrium would leave the issuer State in trouble and at risk of default.Remark.At this point,the ECB could consider splitting the win3/4 obtained in the most likely Nash equilibrium B with the issuer State, in order to cancel the effects of the increase of the yield on govern-ment bonds.Thus,the ECB would give1/2(value that the State loses because of a strategy x=1)to the State,taking for itself the sum of1/4.But this seemingly simple solution is not feasible for sev-eral reasons:1.the ECB has a policy that usually does not interfere with that one ofthe European States,therefore this kind of action is difficult to accomplish;2.the“payback”to the State by the ECB could have very long timescales,and therefore the State could sink even deeper into economic crisis.3.the amount cashed by the State cancels its loss(suffered because ofthe strategy of Speculator),but the yield on government bonds would remain high,and then this action is not a solution:it would simply postpone the problem over time without dealing with it.In fact,if in the future otherfinancial institutions buy(also without speculative purposes)government bonds,the State should pay them a yield which is remained at unsustainable levels,ending in bankruptcy.For these reasons,it is important tofind a method that allows the State to prevent speculation and not to be constantly“cured”.Anyway, it is obvious that a vaccine made only once is better than a medicine taken continuously,a medicine which in the future will lose its effectiveness.Note.We can note that there are three possible cases:1.If m=n we have the case that we are studying.2.If m>n we have:B1(y)={1}∀y∈F.3.If m b n we have:B1yðÞ¼1f g if y b m=n0;1f g if y¼m=n0f g if m=n b y≤1: 8<:In order that our model achieves the aims which will be explained fur-ther on,it is necessary that the marginal incidence m of the strategy x on R1is not lower than the marginal incidence n of the strategy y on R1(in fact in this case the point A=(0,1)is already the only Nash equilibrium). But very likely,the value n is lower than the value m because the purchase of government bonds by the ECB could be less accepted by the market players.In fact,the action of the ECB could be seen as a behavior dictated (also,or even only)by political motivations,and not by economic reasons (like for example low risk and high profit about government bonds).7.2.Defensive phase of the no tax gameWe suppose that the two players are aware of the will of the other one to destroy it economically,or are by their nature cautious,fearful,para-noid,pessimistic or risk averse,and then they choose the strategy that al-lows them to minimize their loss.In this case,we talk about defensive strategies.7.2.1.Conservative value and crosses7.2.1.1.Conservative value of a player.It is defined as the maximization of its function of worst win.Therefore,the conservative value of the Speculator is v1#=sup x∈E f1#(x),where f1#is the function of worst win of the Speculator,and it is given by f1#(x)=inf y∈F f1(x,y),for every x in E.Choosing M=1,n=0.5and m=0.5,which are always positive numbers(strictly greater than0),and recalling that f1(x,y)= xM(mx−ny),we have:f1#(x)=inf y∈F xM(mx−ny).Since the offensive strategies of the ECB are O2xðÞ¼1f g if x>0F f g if x¼0;we obtain:f1xðÞ¼xM mx−nðÞf g if x>00f g if x¼0:In Fig.6appears f1#graphically.So the defense(or conservative)strategy set of the Speculator is E#={0,1}and the conservative value of the Speculator isv#1¼supx∈Einfy∈FxM mx−nyðÞ¼0:ð8ÞOn the other hand,the conservative value of the ECB is given by v2#=sup y∈F f2#,where f2#is the function of the worst win of the ECB. It is given by f2#(y)=inf x∈E f2(x,y),for every y∈F.Choosing M=1, i=0.25and m=0.5,which are always positive numbers(strictly greater than0),and recalling that f2(x,y)=yM(i+mx),we have: f2#(y)=inf x∈E yM(i+mx).Since the worst offensive strategies of the Speculator are O1yðÞ¼0f g if y>0E f g if y¼0,we obtain:f2yðÞ¼yMif g if y>00f g if y¼0:In Fig.7appears f2#graphically.Fig.6.The function of worst win of the Speculator in the no taxgame.Fig.7.The function of worst win of the ECB in the no tax game.2421D.Carfì,F.Musolino/Economic Modelling29(2012)2417–2426So the defense(or conservative)strategy set of the ECB is given by F#={1}and the conservative value of the ECB isv#2¼supy∈F infx∈EyM iþmxðÞ¼Mi:ð9ÞTherefore,recalling that M=1and i=0.25,the conservative bi-value isv# f ¼v#1;v#2¼0;1=4ðÞ:7.2.2.Conservative crossesThey are bi-strategies(x#,y#),whose coordinates are conservative strategies of thefirst and second player respectively.We have only two conservative crosses:the points B=(1,1)and A=(0,1).The conserva-tive cross B=(1,1)can be considered good for the Speculator and the ECB,because it is on the maximal Pareto boundary,but it is mediocre for the State.In fact,recalling that f3(x,y)=M(−ny+mx),the yield to pay on government bonds goes down by1/2,in accordance with the strategy y=1of the ECB,but it re-increases by the same amount because of the strategy x=1of the Speculator.The conservative cross A=(0,1),instead,is good for the State,be-cause the yield to pay on government bonds goes downward.But the point A′is not on the maximal Pareto boundary.Moreover,most likely, the Speculator will choose the strategy x=1,because the strategy x= 0precludes the opportunity for profit for the Speculator,which is stuck on the ordinate axis.With x=1,instead,the Speculator tries to win something depending on the strategy of the ECB,and still manages to not lose.Basically,the most likely conservative cross is B=(1,1):al-most certainly the achievement of a conservative cross would leave the issuer State in trouble and at risk default.Note.Recalling that f#1xðÞ¼xM mx−nðÞf g if x>00f g if x¼0we can notethat there are three possible cases:1.If m=n we have the case that we are studying.2.If m>n we have:x#=1.3.If m b n we have:x#=0.In order that our model achieves the aims which will be explained further on,it is necessary that the marginal incidence m of the strategy x on R1is not lower than the marginal incidence n of the strategy y on R1 (in fact in this case the point A=(0,1)is already the only defensive equilibrium).But very likely,the value n is lower than the value m be-cause the purchase of government bonds by the ECB could be less ac-cepted by the market players.In fact,the action of the ECB could be seen as a behavior dictated(also,or even only)by political motivations, and not by economic reasons(such as for example low risk and high profit about government bonds).7.3.Cooperative solutions of the no tax gameThe best way for the two players to get both a win without causing the default of the State in economic difficulty,is tofind a cooperative solution.7.3.1.Cooperative solutionThe Speculator and the ECB play the strategies x=0and y=1in order to arrive at the payoff A′(which allows the State to reduce the yield on its government bonds)and then they split the bi-win A′by means of a contract.The Speculator benefits by cooperating with the ECB because following the Nash strategy it does not win anything (while in this way wins1/10);the ECB is able to save the State in diffi-culty,but gives up a significant part of its win than the Nash equilibrium.Practically,the Speculator does not act with any speculative move-ment on the securities market,and the ECB,that manages to save the State in economic crisis,shares with the Speculator its winning W=1/4, obtained arriving to A′.For a possible quantitative division of this win W=1/4,between the ECB and the Speculator,we use the transferable utility solution, applying to the transferable utility Pareto boundary of the payoff space a non-standard Kalai–Smorodinsky solution.Remark.We consider the infimum and the supremum of the maxi-mal Pareto boundary for a better view of the game in its entirety.We proceedfinding the supremum of our maximal Pareto bound-ary,which is sup∂∗g(E×F)=:α=(1/2,3/4);then we join it with the infimum of our maximal Pareto boundary,which is given by inf∂∗g(E×F)=(0,0).The coordinates of the intersection of the point P,between the straight line of collective win(i.e.X+Y=1/4)and the straight line joininig the supremum of the maximal Pareto boundary with the infimum(i.e.the line Y=(3/2)X),give us the desirable division of the collective win W=1/4between the two players.In order tofind the coordinates of the point P is enough to put in a system of equations X+Y=1/4and Y=(3/2)X.Substituting the Y in thefirst equation we have X+(3/2)X=1/4and therefore X=1/10. Substituting now the X in the second equation,we have Y=3/20. Thus P=(1/10,3/20)suggests as solution that the Speculator re-ceives1/10by contract by the ECB,while at the ECB remains the win3/20.We can see Fig.8in order to make us more aware of the situation. Remark.But the cooperative solution leaves us dissatisfied.In fact the cooperative solution is difficult to implement because the ECB should achieve an agreement with the Speculator before that the Speculator plays a strategy x>0,and is almost impossible to know in advance the intentions of all the potential speculators in the gov-ernment bonds market.For this reason,it is necessary to have a pre-ventive economic measure.8.Payoff functions of the game with tax8.1.The payoff of the Speculator in the game with tax8.1.1.The anti-speculative proposalWe propose,in order to avoid speculations of thefirst player about the current and future yield of the government bonds,thatthe Fig.8.A possible cooperative solution of the no tax game.2422 D.Carfì,F.Musolino/Economic Modelling29(2012)2417–2426。