【捞金团队.龙氏理金】3月21日黄金分析及下单指令

ZT.七种常用的“对冲手法”抵押、分险、组合投资、反向投资、长短掉期对冲、大小盘对冲、系统流程对冲那么，下一节，咱们就详细探讨一下这“七种武器”如何用。

今天就说说这个“抵押”。

说这之前，当然会说到咱们国家的“票号”兴衰。

如果咱们去山西平遥的话，一看那个“乔家大院”，俺靠~，足足两万多间房间，就知道当时咱“票号”的赚钱能力了。

那时，也是山西票号的后人孔祥熙，还没成中国的“四大家族”呢，但娶也是大生意人的女儿宋蔼龄，就连见多识广的宋家女儿，也没想到那个排场的奢糜。

但后来时代一变迁，山西票号就迅速衰落下去了。

原因呢，大伙儿已有公论，主要就是没有现代银行的“抵押制度”。

山西的票号那时做生意，可豪气，叫“万两白银一句话”——喜欢你了，就凭你一句话，就可以借出一万两白花花的雪花银子。

听起来神话似的，但也养成了“权钱交易”的习惯。

看看乔致庸做生意，到最后总得与慈禧、一帮子王公贵族打交道，得花了大价钱让他们批准这批准那的。

但是，咱们都知道清朝是个最不晓得经营的朝代。

那批慈禧、王公贵族什么的，既喜欢排场，又不晓得怎样赚钱。

吃个宴席都要搞“满汉全宴”，大吃大喝好几天，却不计花费几许的。

结果，没权的旗人很快就“赤贫化”了，有权的旗人就赶紧敲诈勒索，直到把整个民间都搞成“赤贫化”，自己没处去敲诈了，就挪用起“海军军费”来了。

看看那本《红楼梦》，就是说的这个过程，能不落个“白茫茫的大地真干净”的结局吗？——正儿巴经的“吃喝经济”，连一帮子如花似玉的小姑娘都如饕餮似的，在“诗词曲赋”的幌子下乱吃，银子却不知怎么挣。

有个王熙凤这样的CEO还好点。

王熙凤一死，这家能不败吗？那么，面对这样的客户群，票号们还兴“万两白银一句话”，能不坏账缠身吗？所以，现代银行一进来，起初生意是不如票号，但后来跑着跑着，票号就跑不过银行了。

为啥？银行有“抵押制度”呵。

“抵押制度”解决的是一个“人性的风险”。

人一旦贪婪起来，就是“风险最大的生意”。

咱们看看女小资写的贴子——《假如咱有了钱》：“等咱有了钱，天天去做美体。

黄金分割线起源于古希腊,也叫黄金分割律,是数学的一种计算公式,在中国古典文献中也有过类似理论的记载。

黄金分割线是现代金融外汇股票等交易中使用很普遍的一种技术分析方式,也是本站经常使用的一种方式,在每个交易平台中都有黄金分割线的功能(斐波那契回调线),我们可以随时调取使用。

黄金分割线的实战运用主要集中在两个方面,一个是利用股价回调和反弹的幅度来预测股价运行趋势,另一个则是判断股价的回调支撑区和反弹压力区。

利用回调和反弹幅度来判断走势利用黄金分割线,可以依据股价向下回调的幅度和向上反弹的高度,来判断行情的性质和股价未来的运行趋势。

1、从回调幅度判断一轮真正的上升行情中,会有几次级别比较大的回调整理过程,这种回调整理的第一目标位,一般是前段上升行情高度的0.382线附近,第二和第三目标位则是前段上升行情高度的0.5线和0.618线附近。

如果股价回调到0.382线上方或附近时,就重拾升势,则表明股价的强势上升行情依旧。

当股价向下击穿0.382这条重要支撑线后,该段上升行情的0.5线是最重要的支撑位。

如果股价回调到0.5线上方或附近时,就又重新返身向上,则说明股价的上升行情并未结束。

当股价向下击穿0.5线这条重要支撑线后,该段上升行情高度的0.618线就是最后一个支撑位。

如果股价有效向下击穿0.618线,则说明这段上升行情即将结束,股价的上升趋势将转为水下降趋势或水平运动趋势。

2、从反弹幅度判断一轮大的下跌行情中会有几次级别较大的反弹出货过程,这种反弹出货过程,对于投资者逢高卖出股票有很大的帮助,同时,还可以用黄金分割线来判断反弹行情的性质。

当股价从高位下跌过程中,由于前期跌势过猛,股价会有一个比较大的反弹。

当这种反弹高度未到0.382线处,就又重新下跌,则意味着这种反弹是弱势反弹,股价未来的跌势可能会更加凶猛。

当股价的反弹高度未到0.5线处,就重新下跌,则预示着这种反弹是下跌途中的中级抵抗,股价的下降趋势依旧,下跌行情尚未结束。

一.电话前的准备:尽量多打电话，多找客户，才有资本让客户不断的给你提出问题，让自己有去解决的机会，得到了更多（越多越好）的解决机会才能成长，掌握客户心态。

所以一定要增加自身的筹码，筹码是自己的资本。

1. 明确打电话的目标:目标是什么呢？目标是电话结束以后的效果。

目的和目标是有关联的，一定要清楚打电话的目的和目标，这是两个重要的方面。

2．设想客户可能会提到的问题并做好准备你打电话过去时，客户也会向你提问一些问题。

如果客户向你提问的问题你不是很清楚，你要花时间找一些资料，客户很可能怕耽误他的时间而把电话给挂掉，这也不利于信任关系的建立。

所以你要明确客户可能提问一些什么问题，而且应该事先就知道怎么去回答。

3．心态上也要做好准备:电话销售人员每天打的电话量相当大，而且每天遭受的拒绝也往往非常多，所以很容易造成精神上的疲倦，在这种疲倦的影响下，态度上就会情不自禁地不是很积极、热情。

所以我们打电话的态度一定要积极，保持好心情是成功的前提。

二.怎样打电话做客户1第一通电话业务员：**先生,您好,我这边是工商银行合作单位的，打电话来是想跟您介绍下现货黄金,您之前有了解过吗？客户:没了解过业务员:那像您之前股票之类的投资有没有做过呢? （谈股论金方式开始说，这样说的是因为我们的客户资料基本都是做过股票的，还有自己要对股票有些认识，这样容易找到谈话的出入口！不过要注意不要过多的纠缠在股票里。

要明白自己的目的是推广现货黄金这一产品）客户:有业务员：(有做过)，那现在在做什么股票呢？（这个时候客户会为难，解决掉是进步的开始，在问的前提最好加上一些味道，比如现在行情不是很好，大盘从2800点已经跌倒2700点，近期一个月时间跌幅100点，那你现在手上持有什么股票呢？）这样就可以顺利谈下去，（仓位情况，什么时候介入股市，喜欢操作风格短中线，平时买股票是根据什么买的，总体状况如何，如果赔了感觉哪里比较难把握，多问点问题问问客人）举例业务员：**先生，你平时都喜欢做短线还是中线呢？客户：我喜欢做短线业务员：短线都是根据消息面来掌握的，（接着上面需要了解的东西继续了解，电话中少停顿，流利感要强，要不然都有遭到挂电话的可能，继续下去）那像这样的行情热点比较少，那你手上持有的是什么股票呢？（问到了所持有的股票）业务员:（如果没做过）现如今炒黄金是比较热门的投资品种,您可以了解下的, 黄金每年都是以30%的速度在上涨，可以说已经成为投资的明星产品！而且我们这边是现在国内唯一一家由工商银行第三方托管的可以做现货黄金的品种，资金安全有保障。

一段真实的经历（操盘手回忆录）当时。

我在一家私募基金当副总。

老总，是一位S州人。

基金总额不大，仅有 3.5亿。

这位老总个人就占基金总量的三分之一多。

在当时的君安证券深圳SSS营业部的三位投行部人员的安排下，我们于12月1号抵达上海。

当天就安排见到了，南方上海总部的一些同行。

第二天参观了京华证券，万科上海投资部。

第三天在君安投行部的同行安排下，我们参观了老的是上交所，当时并没有搬到浦东。

第四天中午又参观了上海市人民银行，并同一位处长在浦东，“小勺”近4个小时。

从到上海这四天里，我们除了收到一大堆各种衔头的名牌片以外，实质性的东西一点没有。

无所事事之余，我们又参观了几家总部在浦东的上市公司。

收到的除了名片就是那几家上市公司的一大堆“资料”。

可说这四天是一无所获。

但君安的同行却悠闲自得。

一来我与老总确实大方，二来，花的钱，能报的都开了票给他们，不能报的，我们都掏了，同时也开了不同的票，交给他们。

可说，他们三位是汗涝保收。

正当我与老总没有信心之时，君安的同行，刘姓朋友手机传来让我们振兴的消息。

说是，曾经成功操作0571这只个股的主力策划者，在股市有“冷面杀手”之称的要来与我们“小勺”。

我与老总是兴奋得狠狠的喝了两听啤酒才冷静下来。

为了表达对“杀手”的尊敬，我们单为了选一个环境高雅、档次超标、味道可口的“小勺”之处，我与那刘姓朋友就忙乎了近3个小时。

当夜色降临时，我们匆匆的去了预约之处。

在那望穿秋水的等待之中，“杀手”一直到晚上10.25左右才到。

坐下来一介绍，才知“杀手”刚去会了一位只有电视里才能见得着的“公子”。

我们，当然就只有等了。

当听说我们的“基金”只有不到4个亿时，“杀手”只是点了点头。

当他进门我亲手给他点着的那根“小熊猫”快着到屁股时，“杀手”起身，一句《饭刚吃了，饱着呢，在我需要资金“锁仓”时，我会优先照顾你们的》。

就走出了那“高雅”得让我埋单都手发颤的“小勺”之处。

让我准备好了的一大堆久迎、如雷贯耳、等等麻肉的话都没有机会说，全都吞进了肚里。

地缘政治引发紧张情绪金价再获提振 2007年03月29日 15:06 威尔鑫周三美元以82.94点开盘，最高上试83.10点，最低下探82.76点，报收于83.08点，较前一个交易日上涨15点，涨幅0.18%，日K线呈一条止跌回稳的小阳线。

周三美元开盘小幅上扬后便呈震荡回软走势，至下午13时30分左右美元下探至低点82.87点后企稳反弹上行至83.06点，随后美元遭遇一波打压行情下行，至夜间22时30分美元下探至82.76点的当日最低位，美联储主席的随后讲话给美元些许提振，致使美元上扬直至纽约收盘，最终美元结束连续两个交易日阴跌局面报收小阳。

美联储(Fed)主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在北京时间28日晚22时在在国会山向美国国会联合经济委员会(Joint Economic Committee of Congress)做了证词陈述，会中谈及次级抵押贷款市场问题时，伯南克表示次级抵押贷款市场问题对房市构成了新的问题，但次级抵押贷款市场问题对经济的影响相对较小，并且对其它信贷市场的波及效应不大。

因此，他认为当前次级抵押贷款市场温和不至于导致经济衰退。

同时他也预计房地产市场修正有望在今年完成，经济趋于走强。

有关通胀问题，伯南克表示经济和通胀风险均有所增加，虽然核心通胀可能趋于温和，但通胀仍偏于上行。

他表示，尽管目前同时存在经济增长放缓和通胀上升的双重风险，但Fed并未改变通胀立场，Fed政策仍以控制通胀为导向，通胀风险仍高于经济增长疲软的风险。

这暗含尽管近期数据显示经济增长受到抑制，美联储依然不倾向于在近期降息。

有关经济前景问题，伯南克依然预期美国经济将在接下去数个季度内温和增长。

他表示尽管投资增长放缓，但可能继续温和增长，经济前景没有实质性变化。

从伯南克可的证词中，我们看出目前美联储最关注的仍是通胀问题；但另一方面，美联储也反应出了对经济前景的担忧。

伯南克次级抵押贷款市场问题和房地产问题的利好言述，部分缓解了市场对房地产拖累美国经济走软忧虑情绪，从而使美元弱幅上扬，关联金价在此影响下缩减了部分涨幅。

ma目录1、文档说明 (7)2、产品功能 (7)3、登录/退出 (7)3.1功能点简介 (8)3.2入口路径 (8)3.3使用说明 (8)3.3.1登录 (8)3.3.2通讯设置 (10)3.3.3退出 (13)4、K线 (13)4.1功能点简介 (13)4.2入口路径 (14)4.3使用说明 (15)5、系统 (16)5.1功能点简介 (16)5.2入口路径 (16)5.3使用说明 (16)5.3.1查询历史结算单 (16)5.3.2查询资金 (17)5.3.3退出 (18)6、报表 (19)6.1功能点简介 (19)6.2入口路径 (19)6.3使用说明 (19)7、套利 (20)7.1功能点简介 (20)7.2入口路径 (20)7.3使用说明 (20)8、配置 (21)8.1功能点简介 (21)8.2入口路径 (21)8.3.1选项 (22)8.3.2界面锁定 (33)8.3.3合约快捷键 (34)8.3.4界面风格及配置项切换 (34)8.3.5分组设置 (37)8.3.6资金使用比例设置 (40)9、帮助 (40)9.1功能点简介 (40)9.2入口路径 (40)9.3使用说明 (40)10、账户管理面板 (41)10.1功能点简介 (41)10.2入口路径 (42)10.3使用说明 (43)10.3.1“有效”勾选 (43)10.3.2“选择”勾选 (44)10.3.3添加账户（NEW） (45)10.3.4同步账户持仓 (47)10.3.5分组设置 (52)11、行情面板 (52)11.1功能点简介 (52)11.2入口路径 (53)11.3使用说明 (53)11.3.1普通行情 (53)11.3.2套利行情 (55)11.3.3篮子行情 (57)11.3.4期权行情 (58)12、策略面板 (59)12.1.1网格策略 (59)13、下单板 (59)13.1功能点简介 (59)13.3使用说明 (60)13.3.1【标准】下单板 (60)13.3.2【两键】下单板 (64)13.3.3【三键】下单板 (65)13.3.4【六键】下单板 (65)13.3.5【预埋单】下单板 (67)13.3.6【条件单】下单板 (68)13.3.7【本地套利】下单板 (68)13.3.8【标准套利】下单板 (69)13.3.9【篮子下单】下单板 (70)13.3.10【闪电点价】下单板（NEW） (74)13.3.11【组合报单】下单板 (84)14、信息类面板 (85)14.1功能点简介 (85)14.2入口路径 (85)14.3使用说明 (85)14.3.1信息类面板-【所有委托】 (86)14.3.2信息类面板-【成交记录】 (87)14.3.3信息类面板-【持仓信息】 (88)14.3.4信息类面板-【未成交记录】 (93)14.3.5信息类面板-【本地套利】（NEW） (94)14.3.6信息类面板-【预埋单】 (98)14.3.7信息类面板-【止盈止损】 (101)14.3.8信息类面板-【平仓信息】 (101)14.3.9信息类面板-【条件单】 (102)14.3.10信息类面板-【盈亏分析】 (105)14.3.11信息类面板-【Delta】 (105)14.3.12信息类面板-【篮子下单信息】 (105)14.3.13信息类面板-【网格下单信息】 (106)14.3.14信息类面板-【算法列表】 (106)15、状态栏 (107)15.2入口路径 (107)15.3使用说明 (107)16、【本地套利】策略下单整体流程（NEW） (108)16.1功能点简介 (108)16.2入口路径 (108)16.3使用说明 (108)16.3.1本地套利添加策略 (108)16.3.2本地套利复制策略 (111)16.3.3本地套利修改策略 (111)16.3.4套利行情面板 (112)16.3.5【本地套利】下单板 (112)16.3.6【本地套利】信息面板 (113)16.3.7套利报单实例（NEW&HOT） (114)16.3.8移仓换月使用方法（NEW&HOT） (118)17、【篮子下单】策略下单整体流程 (119)17.1功能点简介 (119)17.2入口路径 (120)17.3使用说明 (120)17.3.1篮子下单添加策略 (120)17.3.2篮子下单复制策略 (123)17.3.3篮子下单修改策略 (123)17.3.4【篮子下单】下单板 (124)17.3.5【篮子下单信息】 (125)18、【网格策略】策略下单整体流程（HOT） (126)18.1功能点简介 (126)18.2入口路径 (128)18.3使用说明 (129)18.3.1添加策略 (130)18.3.2修改策略 (137)18.3.3删除策略 (138)18.3.4什么是网格策略 (139)18.3.5网格策略报单实例（普通合约、标准套利合约）： (139)18.3.6网格策略报单实例（本地套利合约）： (143)18.3.7网格策略异常状态： (145)19、【智能算法】算法下单整体流程 (145)19.1功能点简介 (145)19.2入口路径 (145)19.3使用说明 (147)19.3.1智能算法-冰山指令 (147)19.3.2智能算法-TWAP (149)19.3.3智能算法-VWAP (151)19.3.4智能算法-算法列表 (153)20、附录 (155)21、备注 (156)21.1指定资金账户 (156)21.1.1功能点简介 (156)21.1.2入口路径 (156)21.1.3使用说明 (156)22、修订记录 (160)1、文档说明本文档作为随心易PC客户端的产品说明书，以图文结合的方式描述了PC客户端的核心功能点，旨在帮助投资者更好的使用随心易PC客户端。

历年黄金价格走势（Gold price trend over the years）Gold price chart over the yearsGold investment has certain risks, and there are many factors that influence the price of gold. Among them, war, economy, employment, supply and demand, interest rate, stock market, politics and other aspects will make the price of gold fluctuate.The lowest international trading price of gold took place in 1999 July 20th, 252 dollars / ounce, equivalent to RMB 67 yuan / gram. The highest price occurred in 2006 May 12th, 725 dollars / ounce, equivalent to about 187 yuan / gram.These prices are the first transaction price of gold for international raw materials. Gold raw materials through layers of wholesale, processed into finished jewelry, and then wholesale, about 7--8 links to reach the terminal sales. After these links, to the counter, basically rose by about 50 yuan per gram (including management fees, taxes and so on). So the old jewelry shop in the recovery than many finished bottom, it is for this reason.Since the "9. 11" event in 2001, the international gold price has been showing an upward trend, and has continued to rise sharply since 2003. The price of gold at the beginning of 2003 is $345.25, the same year at the beginning of February, the price of gold rose to nearly $388.9 an ounce. After several twists and turns, the end of September 2003 hit a high of $394 in December, rising above $400 mark in December 9th, rising to $407.76. In 2003, the international price of gold rose by about17.8%. Mainly due to the international price of gold is rising global economic development still faces many uncertainties, the dollar devaluation and economic instability investors hedging demand growth, causing investors to buy gold boom, push gold prices to a eight year high.The dollar faces a sharp downside risk and gold becomes a haven. Generally speaking, a country's strong economic performance should support the country's currency exchange rate rise, but in 2003 the dollar exchange rate and the U.S. economy is contrary to the trend. The U.S. economy picked up in 2003. According to a report released by the US Department of Commerce, the gross domestic product of the United States increased by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2003, an increase of 3.3% in the second quarter and an increase rate of 8.2% in the third quarter, the fastest rate in 20 years. Economists expect the economy to grow by more than 5% in the second half of 2003. At the same time as the economy grew strongly, the dollar fell sharply in 2003. As of December 3, 2003, the dollar against the yen fell by 9% compared with the beginning of 2003, the dollar against the euro since 2003, the cumulative decline of about 20%.The greenback fell in 2003 1 to May, by the beginning of 2003 1 dollar to 0.9653 Euro $0.8405 by the end of May. Since the beginning of September began to rise, rose to 0.9225 euros in October 9th fell to 0.8516 euros. In November 3rd, the dollar rose to 0.8726 euros, but fell sharply again in late November, from $1 in November 24th 0.8501 against the euro plunged to 0.8420 euros in November 28th. Since 28, after eight consecutive days to refresh the dollar against the euro in December 9th lows, closing price fell to 0.8257 euros a recordlow.2003, 1~9 months,The exchange rate between us dollar and Japanese yen basically fluctuates from 121.43 to 115.84 yen. It rose to a high of 121.43 yen in March 21st and fell to 115.84 yen in September 3rd. In mid September the dollar has dropped sharply, especially in the meeting, the dollar has accelerated the rate of decline in the first half of October fell to about 107 yen, three years lows in October 20th rose to 110 yen. In November 3rd rose to 111.05 yen. At the end of November fell again to 108 yen. Meanwhile, the dollar has fallen to its lowest level in years against other major currencies. If the US dollar falls, it will have a negative impact on the global economy and may lead to turmoil in the international financial markets, which will lead to more money flowing into the gold market to avoid hedging.Geopolitical tensions continue to exacerbate market panic, gold hedging function highlighted. The growing terrorist attacks in the Middle East have become a lingering worry for investors. Geopolitical tensions have made the growth of the U.S. economy fragile, affecting confidence in the U.S. economy and the steady growth of the global economy. By the Dutch act of the bomb attacks in Turkey by the two Istanbul synagogue, and killed 23 people, Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the explosion, and threatened to launch a car bomb attack on the United States, Britain, Italy, Australia and japan. In late November 2003, U.S. President Bush in an interview with the British "sun" published in the said: "to ensure the long-term security of the world, the United States may start a war again,if necessary, even at the war alone." The increasing instability of the international political and military situation has raised the demand for hedging for investors, while the gold hedging and hedging functions have been taken seriously by investors.Market analysts have different views on the long-term trend of gold prices. Some experts believe that the dollar is still weak, the international terrorist attacks will happen at any time, the uncertain factors in the financial market investment climate, global interest rates are generally low, the company's repurchase to reduce the supply of gold, "the Washington Agreement" also disguised control of the supply of gold, therefore, the price of gold is expected to 2004 exceeded $420 mark, and keep several years of strong.Some experts believe that the future trend of gold prices will mainly be affected by the economic development of the United states. The United States economy despite signs of recovery, but the unemployment rate remains high, the lack of investor confidence leads to substantial inflow of funds into the gold market. The current wave of irrational buying of gold will subside as the US economy improves and the dollar recovers. If the United States there is a strong economic recovery, employment situation improved significantly, the consumer market is buoyant, funds will be once again back to the stock market and gold market currencies, gold prices will fall.Of particular note is that the cost of gold is an important factor affecting the price of gold. In recent years, the cost of gold has dropped below $240 an ounce, and the current priceof gold has far exceeded the cost, and prices can not be too far away from value. Once the global political and economic instability disappears, gold prices will fall. Theoretically,The aggregate supply and demand of gold are the fundamental factor in determining prices. Gold production has been slow and steady for the last 10 years. Industrialized countries still have large amounts of gold, estimated at more than 24000 tons, plus gold held by institutions, with a total gold reserves of around 28000 tonnes. These gold reserves will not be like the money reserves. Can operate and bring interest, but to make the holder to spend, but keep the cost. So, as soon as the time is ripe, selling gold is an inevitable choice for central banks. In the long run, gold is generally oversupply, and its price will not remain at a high level far away from the cost.I believe that the international price of gold will continue to rise modestly in 2004 as the US dollar faces tremendous downward pressure and geopolitical tensions persist. The main reasons are four:First, the future trend of the dollar remains to be seen, and some countries need to consider increasing non dollar reserves, while gold is an important hedging tool. While the US economy is recovering at the same time in 2004, its inflation rate may rise, which will play a supporting role in the price of gold. In 2004, the negative impact of Iraq's tension on the U.S. economy still exists, and the dollar's safe haven position will be further shaken, and people will continue to attach importance to the hedging role of gold.Second, from the supply and demand side, because the price of gold fell nearly two years ago production costs, has now accumulated a strong rebound momentum. When the market fell in the last two years, gold mines usually had to "hedge", that is, to sell their gold in the next few years or even decades, so as to avoid further losses in the future. But as the price of gold rose, gold miners reduced hedges, leading to a fall in the gold market. In November 21, 2003, Munch, chairman and founder of Baarck gold, Canada's largest gold producer, announced that the company would no longer sell gold to the forward market in order to avoid future price shocks. The news surprised the market. Spot gold jumped nearly $4.50 immediately after the announcement by the gold company, rising to $397.80 an ounce.In terms of demand, the demand for gold in India and China has maintained a high level in recent years. China's annual output of gold is about more than 180 tons, but only the annual consumption of gold jewelry reached more than 200 tons, there is a big gap. Due to the opening of the gold market, China's demand for gold, whether it is investment or consumption, will have a substantial increase. This increase in the short term is difficult to rely on the mainland to improve the production of gold, must rely on imports. China's gold demand will continue to grow in 2004. In addition, not only the demand for gold for civil growth, but also the central bank will increase gold reserves, the central bank to adjust the supply and demand of gold chips. The increasing demand for gold in Asian countries will support the rise in gold prices.Third, although the global interest rate tends to rise, it will remain basically stable in 2004. Lower interest rates arehelping to keep the price of gold going up. Although the US economy recovered strongly in the second half of 2003, the economic restructuring of the United States has not yet been completed, with a serious excess capacity and a high unemployment rate.There is concern that the economic recovery in the United States is a recovery from jobless growth, and that such a recovery is unsustainable. Moreover, the huge US budget deficit makes it difficult for the US government to further stimulate the economic stimulus of tax cuts. As a result, economists expect the US economy to pick up in 2004, but slow down in 2005. With the outlook for economic growth still uncertain, it is unlikely that the Fed will raise interest rates in the first half of 2004. At the same time, Europe's economy is less developed than the United States, and the ECB is less likely to raise interest rates. Lower interest rates are helping to keep the price of gold strong.Fourth, geopolitical tensions will push up the price of gold. The aftermath of the attacks against Iraq is still a lot. The situation in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula is unstable. Even the United States may be attacked by terrorism again, while the storage of gold has a certain value to maintain its value. Panizo Siti, of UBS, said the fund continued to buy gold with a hedging function, despite signs of recovery in the US economy. At present, the United States faces more attacks in Iraq, and investing in gold is seen as a way of avoiding danger, and the price of gold seems to soon break through the key resistance point of $410 an ounce.。

黄金蓄势突破千元大关突破在即自去年12月份以来，大多数商品见底后开始一波强烈反弹，唯独黄金价格一直处于大三角形整理的形态中，对商品价格上涨视而不见。

黄金ETFs持仓也不见上增，反而有所下降。

市场对金价的判断开始有所犹豫。

但正如笔者在之前几篇文章中所写的那样，金价的牛市基础依然坚实，中期的整理过程是为了积蓄力量，以更强势的姿态迎来一波大行情。

而从目前的市场状况来看，黄金迎来大行情的条件已经成熟。

本文将从美元走势判断、央行黄金交易、基金持仓以及技术形态等方面对金价的走势作出一定的解析。

一、通胀预期压力下美元终将下行美元的走势是所有商品，尤其是工业品的风向标，也对黄金价格产生直接的影响。

就目前来看，美元走势依然受到两个关键因素的制约：其一是美国经济体是否已经见底；其二是通胀预期是否仍然出现。

笔者在去年黄金年报中就已经提及，经济体见底的时间大致将在2009年三季度末至四季度。

而从目前的经济数据来看，经济见底的迹象已经越来越明显。

制造业部门的数据明显回暖。

ISM制造业指数已经连续8个月上升，7月份为48.9，相比12月份上升逾50%。

并且已经逐步靠近50这一平衡点。

工业生产也已经连续三个月上升，7月份更是出乎市场预料为正的0.5%。

这些数据充分表明，制造业部门已经摆脱了下滑的状态，正逐步回升。

美国谘商会发布的领先指标已经连续四个月为正值，7月份为0.7%，这一数据若连续三个月为正，则表明未来6个月的经济体将开始好转。

至少从这一指标来看，下半年经济再度下滑的可能性已经非常小。

而作为次贷风暴中心的房屋市场最近两个月也出现回升，6月份和7月份营建许可均在56万套附近，比之5月份的51万套有所上升，这也是近7个月以来的最高值。

新屋销售数据在7月份也表现良好，为44.3万套，高出6月份近6万套。

这一数据也表明房屋部门已无大碍。

而就业市场的数据有好有坏，失业率仍居高不下，但非农就业人口的下滑人数在最近三个月的平均水平已经大大下降。