布兰查德宏观经济学第四版t
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第9章 通货膨胀、经济活动和名义货币增长一、名词解释1.奥肯定理(Okun's law )(厦门大学807经济学2006研)答:奥肯定律是由美国经济学家奥肯于1962年提出的一种说明经济周期中产出变化与失业变化之间数量关系的理论。
奥肯定律可用公式写为:()y y a u u **-=--式中,y 代表现时的实际GDP 的增长率,y *代表潜在GDP 的增长率,u 代表现时的实际失业率,u *代表自然失业率,a 代表由现时的实际失业率相对于自然失业率的变动而引起的实际产出增长率对潜在产出增长率的变化系数。
该式的含义为:当实际失业率相对于自然失业率上升时,实际产出增长率相对于潜在产出增长率下降,这时为经济周期的衰退阶段;当实际失业率相对于自然失业率下降时,实际产出增长率相对于潜在产出增长率上升,这时为经济周期的繁荣阶段。
奥肯定律说明产出变动与失业变动之间存在着反向替代关系。
奥肯定律提供了一种在经济增长率和失业率之间进行选择的“菜单”。
它对于政府在制定宏观调控政策时把握潜在产出水平和实际产出水平以及把握实际失业率,具有重要意义。
2.卢卡斯批判(Lucas Critique )答:卢卡斯批判又称卢卡斯批评,是卢卡斯提出的一种认为传统政策分析没有充分考虑到政策变动对人们预期影响的观点。
卢卡斯在《计量经济学的政策评价:一个批判》一文中指出,由于人们在对将来的事态做出预期时,不但要考虑过去,还要估计现在的事件对将来的影响,并且根据他们所得到的结果而改变他们的行为。
这就是说,他们要估计当前的经济政策对将来事态的影响,并且按照估计的影响来采取政策,即改变他们的行为,以便取得最大的利益。
行为的改变会使经济模型的参数发生变化,而参数的变化又是难以衡量的。
因此,经济学者用经济模型很难评价经济政策的效果。
3.牺牲率(sacrifice ratio)答:牺牲率是指通货膨胀率每下降1%而带来的每年产出百分比下降的幅度。
第8章菲利普斯曲线、自然失业率和通货膨胀一、概念题1.菲利普斯曲线(Phillips curve)答:英国经济学家菲利普斯根据1861~1957年英国的失业率和货币工资变动率的经验统计资料,得出货币工资增长率与失业率之间存在替换关系,故称之为菲利普斯曲线。
后来的学者用物价上涨率(即通货膨胀率)代替货币工资上涨率,以表示物价上涨率与失业率之间也有对应关系:物价上涨率增加时,失业率下降;物价上涨率下降时,失业率上升。
这就是一般所说的经过改造后的菲利普斯曲线。
菲利普斯曲线如图8-1所示。
图8-1 菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线提供的失业率与通货膨胀率之间的关系为实施政府干预、进行总需求管理提供了一份可供选择的菜单。
它意味着当通货膨胀率过高时,可通过紧缩性的经济政策使失业率提高,以换取低通货膨胀率;当失业率过高时,采取扩张性的经济政策使通货膨胀率提高,以获得较低的失业率。
对于菲利普斯曲线具体的形状,不同学派对此有不同的看法。
普遍接受的观点是:在短期内,菲利普斯曲线向右下方倾斜,而长期菲利普斯曲线是一条垂直线,表明在长期失业率与通货膨胀率之间不存在替换关系。
2.工资-价格螺旋(wage-price spiral)答:工资—价格螺旋又称为“工资—物价螺旋式上升”,是一种关于工资与物价相互促进而引起持续通货膨胀的理论。
给定预期价格,工人认为就是去年的价格,更低的失业导致更高的名义工资,更高的名义工资导致更高的价格,更高的价格导致更高的通货膨胀。
这一机制被称为工资—价格螺旋。
其作用机制为:(1)低失业引起更高的名义工资。
(2)作为对更高工资的反应,企业提高它们的价格,价格就升高了。
(3)作为对更高价格的反应,工人要求更高的名义工资。
(4)更高的名义工资致使企业进一步提高价格,最终价格进一步提升。
(5)作为对价格进一步提升的反应,在他们再次制定工资的时候,工人进一步要求更高的名义工资。
价格和工资之间的这种竞赛,导致持续的工资和价格膨胀。
第2章本书之旅一、概念题1.国民收入和生产账户(national income and product accounts)答:国民收入和生产账户,简称国民收入账户,是指对一国一定时期(通常为一年)内国民收入进行系统记录的账户。
国民收入指一个国家在一定时期(通常为一年)内物质资料生产部门的劳动者新创造的价值的总和,即社会总产品的价值扣除用于补偿消耗掉的生产资料价值的余额。
反映国民收入的两个主要统计数字是GDP和GNP,前者计算一段特定时期本地进行的生产,而后者则计算本地居民的总体收入。
衡量国民收入的方法有三种:收入法、支出法和产出(产品)法。
常用的两个核算公式为:①国内生产总值=消费(C)+私人投资(I)+政府支出(G)+净出口(X-IM);②国内生产总值=工资或其他劳动收入+利息、租金及其他财产收入+间接税+折旧+利润。
其经济意义为:①国民收入的生产结构和经济成分结构指标综合地反映出一国的国民经济结构;②国民收入指标综合地反映社会再生产中各种错综复杂的经济关系;③反映了国民收入的生产、分配和使用中的各种比例关系;④国民收入是反映宏观经济效益的综合指标。
2.总产出(aggregate output)答:总产出是指一个国家或地区一定时期内(核算期内)全部生产活动的总成果,即全部生产单位生产的物质产品和服务的总价值之和,包括本期生产的已出售和可供出售的物质产品和服务、在建工程以及自产自用消费品和自制固定资产价值。
一般按生产价格计算。
经济总产出的主要衡量指标有国内生产总值(GDP)、国民生产总值(GNP)等。
3.国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)答:国内生产总值是指一个国家(地区)的领土范围内,本国(地区)居民和外国居民在一定时期内所生产和提供的最终使用的产品和劳务的价值总和。
国内生产总值之所以称为总值,是因为它包含了生产中的固定资产消耗(固定资产折旧)。
其一般通过支出法、增值法和收入法三种方法进行核算。
Chapter 11. a.True. b.True. c.False. d.True. e.False. f.False.2. a. 1960-98 2019-99-------------------US 3.1% 3.8%EU 3.1% 2.5%Japan 5.8%-1.0%While the US growth rate higher than its long-run average over the period, the growth rate has slowed relative to long-run averages in both the EU and Japan over the last few years.b. Sometimes the economy is growing quickly, other times it is growing slowly or even contracting. The last few years of rapid growth in the US do not imply that the long-run average rate of growth has increased back to its pre-1974 level.3. a. The data in the web page are: Real Gross Domestic Product,Real Final Sales of Domestic Product, and Real Gross National Product, Quarterly, 1959-96[Percent change from preceding quarter]Gross Final sales Grossdomestic of domestic nationalproduct product product1959: I 8.6 9.2 8.6II11.27.311.1III-0.3 5.3-0.2IV 1.7-1.3 1.91996: I 1.8 2.6 1.8II 6.0 5.2 5.7III 1.00.20.6IV 4.3 4.5 4.9suggesting that recessions typically last two-three quarters and that the most severe recessions in that period were the recessions of 1974-75 and 1981-82.b. Percentage Changes in:Output GrowthInflation1968: 4.7 4.4I7.5 4.7II7.1 4.1III 3.0 3.8IV 1.8 5.51969: 3.0 4.7I 6.2 3.8II 1.0 5.0III 2.3 5.8IV-2.0 5.11970: 0.1 5.3I-0.7 6.0II0.6 5.7III 3.7 3.4IV-3.9 5.41971: 3.3 5.2I11.3 6.4II 2.3 5.5III 2.6 4.4IV 1.1 3.3If history simply repeats itself, the United States might have a short recession (lasting perhaps oneyear) accompanied by an acceleration in the rate of inflation by about one percentage point.4. a. Banking services, business services.b. Not only has the relative demand for skilled workers increased but the industries wherethis effect is the strongest are making up a greater fraction of the economy.5. 1. Low unemployment might lead to an increase in inflation.2. Although measurement error certainly contributes to the measured slowdown ingrowth, there are other issues to consider as well, including the productivity of newresearch and accumulation of new capital.3. Although labor market rigidities may be important, it is also important to consider thatthese rigidities may not be excessive, and that high unemployment may arise from flawed macroeconomic policies.4. Although there were serious problems with regard to the management of Asian financial systems, it is important to consider the possibility that the flight of foreign capital from these countries worsened the situation by causing a severe stock market crash and exchange rate depreciation.5. Although the Euro will remove obstacles to free trade between European countries,each country will be forced to give up its own monetary policy.* 6. a. From Chapter 1: US output 2019=$8b; Ch ina output 1996=$.84b. Note that China’s outputin 2019 is $(.84)*(1.09) b. Equating output for some time t in the future:8*(1.03)t=(.84*1.09)*(1.09)t8/(.84*1.09)=(1.09/1.03)t8.737=(1.058)tt =ln(8.737)/ln(1.058) H38yrsb. From Chapter 1: US output/worker in 2019=$29,800; China output/per worker in1996=$70029.8*(1.03)t=(.7*1.09)*(1.09)tt H65 yearsChapter 21. a. False.b. Uncertain: real or nominalGDP. c. True.d. True.e. False. The level of the CPI means nothing. Its rate of change tells us about inflation.f. Uncertain. Which index is better depends on what we are trying to measure—inflationfacedby consumers or by the economy as a whole.2. a. +$100; Personal ConsumptionExpenditures b. nochange:intermediategoodc. +$200 million; Gross PrivateDomesticFixedInvestmentd. +$200 million; Net Exportse. no change: the jet was already counted when it was produced, i.e., presumably whenDelta(or some other airline) bought it new as an investment.*3. a. Measured GDP increases by $10+$12=$22.b. True GDP should increase by much less than $22 because by working for an extra hour,you are no longer producing the work of cooking within the house. Since cooking within the house is a final service, it should count as part of GDP. Unfortunately, it is hard to measure the value of work within the home, which is why measured GDP does not include it.4. a. $1,000,000 the value of the silver necklaces.b. 1st Stage:$300,000.2ndStage:$1,000,00-$300,000=$700,000.GDP: $300,000+$700,000=$1,000,000.c. Wages: $200,000 + $250,000=$450,000.Profits: ($300,000-$200,000)+($1,000,000-$250,000-300,000)=$100,000+$450,000=$550,000.GDP:$450,000+$550,000=$1,000,000.5. a. 2019 GDP: 10*$2,000+4*$1,000+1000*$1=$25,0002019 GDP: 12*$3,000+6*$500+1000*$1=$40,000Nominal GDP has increased by 60%.b. 2019 real (2019) GDP: $25,0002019 real (2019) GDP: 12*$2,000+6*$1,000+1000*$1=$31,000Real (2019) GDP has increased by 24%.c. 2019 real (2019) GDP: 10*$3,000+4*$500+1,000*$1=$33,0002019 real (2019) GDP: $40,000.Real (2019) GDP has increased by 21.2%.d. True.6. a. 2019 base year:Deflator(2019)=1; Deflator(2019)=$40,000/$31,000=1.29Inflation=29%b. 2019 base year:Deflator(2019)=$25,000/$33,000=0.76; Deflator(2019)=1Inflation=(1-0.76)/0.76=.32=32% c. Yes7. a. 2019 real GDP = 10*$2,500 + 4*$750 + 1000*$1 = $29,0002019 real GDP = 12*$2,500 + 6*$750 + 1000*$1 = $35,500b. (35,500-29,000)/29,000 = .224 = 22.4%c. Deflator in 2019=$25,000/$29,000=.86Deflator in 2019=$40,000/$35,500=1.13Inflation = (1.13 -.86)/.86 = .314 = 31.4%.8. a. The quality of a routine checkup improves over time. Checkups now may includeEKGs, for example. Medical services are particularly affected by this problem due toconstantimprovements in medical technology.b. You need to know how the market values pregnancy checkups with and withoutultra-soundsin that year.c. This information is not available since all doctors adopted the new technologysimultaneously. Still, you can tell that the quality adjusted increase will be lower than20%.*9. a. approximately 2.5% b. 1992 real GDP growth: 2.7%;unemployment rate Jan 92: 7.3%; unemployment rate Jan 93: 7.3%Supports Okun's law because the unemployment rate does not change when the growth rate of real GDP is near 2.5% c. -2 percentage points change in the unemployment rate; 5percent GDP growth d. The growth rate of GDP must increase by 2.5 percentage points. Chapter 31. a. True.b. False. Government spending was 18% if GDP without transfers.c. False. The propensity to consume must be less than one for our model to be welldefined.d.True. e.False.f. False. The increase in output is one times the multiplier.2. a. Y=160+0.6*(Y-100)+150+150 0.4Y=460-60 Y=1000b. Y D=Y-T=1000-100=900c. C=160+0.6*(900)=7003. a. No. The goods market is not in equilibrium. Frompart 2a, Demand=1000=C+I+G=700+150+150b. Yes. The goods market is in equilibrium.c. No. Private saving=Y-C-T=200. Public saving =T-G=-50. National saving (or inshort, saving) equals private plus public saving, or 150. National saving equalsinvestment.4. a. Roughly consistent. C/Y=700/1000=70%; I/Y=G/Y=150/1000=15%.b. Approximately -2%.c. Y needs to fall by 2%, or from 1000 to 980. The parameter c0needs to fall by20/multiplier,or by 20*(.4)=8. So c0needs to fall from 160 to 152.d. The change in c0(-8) is less than the change in GDP (-20) due to the multiplier.5. a. Y increases by 1/(1-c1) b. Y decreases by c1/(1- c1)c. The answers differ because spending affects demand directly, but taxes affectdemand through consumption, and the propensity to consume is less than one.d. The change in Y equals 1/(1-c1) - c1/(1- c1) = 1. Balanced budget changes in G and Tare not macroeconomically neutral.e. The propensity to consume has no effect because the balanced budget tax increase abortsthe multiplier process. Y and T both increase by on unit, so disposable income, and hence consumption, do not change.*6. a. The tax rate ilessthanone.b.Y=c0+c1Y D+I+G impliesY=[1/(1-c1+c1t1)]*[c0-c1t0+I+G]c. The multiplier = 1/(1-c1+c1t1) <1/(1- c1), so the economy responds less to changes inautonomous spending when t1is positive.d. Because of the automatic effect of taxes on the economy, the economy responds less tochanges in autonomous spending than in the case where taxes are independent of income. So output tends to vary less, and fiscal policy is called an automatic stabilizer.*7. a. Y=[1/(1-c1+c1t1)]*[c0-c1t0+I+G] b. T = c1t0+ t1*[1/(1-c1+c1t1)]*[c0-c1t0+I+G]c. Both Y and T decrease.d. If G is cut, Y decreases even more.Chapter 41.a.True.b.Fals.c.True.d.True.e.False.f.False.g.True.2. a. i=0.05: Money demand = $18,000; Bond demand = $32,000i=.1: Money demand = $15,000; Bond demand = $35,000b. Money demand decreases when the interest rate increases; bond demand increases. Thisis consistent with the text.c. The demand for money falls by 50%. d. The demand formoney falls by 50%.e. A 1% increase (decrease) in income leads to a 1% increase (decrease) in money demand.This effect is independent of the interest rate.3. a. i=100/$P B–1; i=33%; 18%; 5% when $P B=$75; $85; $95.b. Negative.c. $P B=100/(1.08) $934. a. $20=M D=$100*(.25-i) i=5%b. M=$100*(.25-.15)M=$105. a. B D= 50,000 - 60,000 (.35-i)An increase in the interest rate of 10% increases bond demand $6,000.b. An increase in wealth increases bond demand, but has no effect on money demand.c. An increase in income increases money demand, but decreases bond demand.d. When people earn more income, this does not change their wealth right away. Thus,they increase their demand for money and decrease their demand for bonds.6. a. Demand for high-powered money=0.1*$Y*(.8-4i)b. $100 b = 0.1*$5,000b*(.8-4i) i=15%c. M=(1/.1)*$100 b=$1,000 b M= M d at the interest derived in part b.6. d. If H increases to $300, falls to 5%.e. M=(1/.1)*$300 b=$3,000 b7. a. $16 is withdrawn on each trip to the bank.Money holdings—day one: $16; day two: $12; day three: $8; day four: $4.b. Average money holdings are $10.c. $8 dollar withdrawals; money holdings of $8; $4; $8; $4.d. Average money holdings are $6.e. $16 dollar withdrawals; money holdings of $0; $0; $0; $16.f. Average money holdings are $4.g. Based on these answers, ATMs and credit cards have reduced money demand.8. a. velocity=1/(M/$Y)=1/L(i)b. Velocity roughly doubled between the mid 1960s and the mid 1990s.c. ATMS and credit cards reduced L(i) so velocity increased.Chapter 51.a.Trub.Truc.Fal.d. False. The balanced budget multiplier is positive (it equals one), so the IS curve shiftsright.e. False.f. Uncertain. An increase in G leads to an increase in Y (which tends to increaseinvestment), but an increase in the interest rate (which tends to reduce investment).g. True.*2. Firms deciding how to use their own funds will compare the return on bonds to the return on investment. When the interest rate on bonds increases, they become more attractive, and firms are more likely to use their funds to purchase bonds, rather than to finance investment projects.a.Y=[1/(1-c1)]*[c0-c1T+I+G]The multiplier is 1/(1-c1).b. Y=[1/(1-c1-b1)]*[c0-c1T+ b0-b2i +G]The multiplier is 1/(1-c1-b1). Since the multiplier is larger than the multiplier in part a, the effect of a change in autonomous spending is bigger than in part a.c. Substituting for the interest rate in the answer to partb: Y=[1/(1-c1-b1+ b2d1/d2)]*[c0-c1T+ b0+(b2*M/P)/d2+G]The multiplier is 1/(1-c1-b1+ b2d1/d2).d. The multiplier is greater (less) than the multiplier in part a if (b1- b2d1/d2) is greater (less)than zero. The multiplier is big if b1is big, b2is small, d1is small, and/or d2is big, i.e., if investment is very sensitive to Y, investment is not very sensitive to i, money demand is not very sensitive to Y, money demand is very sensitive to i.4. a. The IS curve shifts left. Output and the interest rate fall. The effect on investmentis ambiguous because the output and interest rate effects work in opposite directions: the fall in output tends to reduce investment, but the fall in the interest rate tends to increase it.b. From 3c: Y=[1/(1-c1-b1)]*[c0-c1T+ b0-b2i +G]c. From the LM relation: i= Y*d1/d2–(M/P)/d2To obtain the equilibrium interest rate, substitute for Y from part b.d. I= b0+ b1Y- b2i= b0+ b1Y- b2Y* d1/d2+ b2(M/P)/d2To obtain equilibrium investment, substitute for Y from part b.e. Holding M/P constant, I increases with equilibrium output when b1>b2d1/d2.Since a decrease in G reduces output, the condition under which a decrease in G increases investment is b1<b2d1/d2.f. The interpretation of the condition in part e is that the effect on I from Y has to be lessthan the effect from i after controlling for the endogenous response of i and Y, determined by the slope of the LM curve, d1/d2.5. a. Y=C+I+G=200+.25*(Y-200)+150+.25Y-1000i+250Y=1100-2000ib.M/P=1600=2Y-8000i i=Y/4000-1/5c. Substituting b into a: Y=1000d. Substituting c into b: i=1/20=5%e. C=400; I=350; G=250; C+I+G=1000f. Y=1040; i=3%; C=410; I=380. A monetary expansion reduces the interest rate andincreases output. The increase in output increases consumption. The increase in outputand the fall in the interest rate increase investment.g. Y=1200; i=10%; C=450; I=350. A fiscal expansion increases output and the interestrate. The increase in output increases consumption.h. The condition from problem 3 is satisfied with equality (.25=1000*(2/8000)), socontractionary fiscal policy will have no effect on investment. When G=100: i=0%;Y=800; I=350; and C=350.*6. a. The LM curve is flatb. Japan was experiencing a liquidity trap. c. Fiscal policy is more effective.7. a. Increase G (or reduce T) and increase M.b. Reduce G (or increase T) and increase M. The interest rate falls. Investment increases,since the interest rate falls while output remains constant.CHAPTER 61.a.Fals.b.Fals.c.Falsd.False.Truf.Falsg.Uncertaih.True.i. False.2. a. (Monthly hires+monthly separations)/monthly employment =6/93.8=6.4%b. 1.6/6.5=25%c. 2.4/6.5=37%. Duration is 1/.37 or 2.7 months.d. 4.9/57.3=9%.e. new workers: .35/4.9=7%; retirees: .2/4.9=4%.3. a and b. Answers will depend on when the page is accessed.c. The decline in unemployment does not equal the increase in employment, because thelabor force is not constant. It has increased over the period.4. a. 66%; 66%*66%*66%= 29%; (66%)6= 8%b. (66%)6= 8%c. (for 2019): 875/6210= .145. a. Answers will vary.b and c. Most likely, the job you will have ten years later will pay a lot more thanyour reservation wage at the time (relative to your typical first job).d. The later job is more likely to require training and will probably be a much harderjob to monitor. So, as efficiency wage theory suggests, your employer will be willing topay a lot more than your reservation wage for the later job, to ensure low turnover andlow shirking.6. a. The computer network administrator has more bargaining power. She is muchharder to replace.6. b. The rate of unemployment is a key statistic. For example, when there are manyunemployed workers it becomes easier for firms to find replacements. This reduces the bargaining power of workers.7. a. W/P=1/(1+ )=1/1.05=.95 b. Price setting: u=1-W/P=5%c. W/P=1/1.1=.91; u=1-.91=9%. The increase in the markup lowers the real wage.From the wage-setting equation, the unemployment rate must rise for the real wage to fall.So the natural rate increases.CHAPTER 71.a.Trub.Trc.Falsd.Fale.Truf.Falg.Fal2. a. IS right, AD right, AS up, LM up, Y same, i up, P upb. IS left, AD left, AS down, LM down, Y same, i down, P down3. a.WS PS AS AD LM IS Y i PShort run:up same up same up same down up upMedium run:up same up same up same down up upb.WS PS AS AD LM IS Y i PShort run:same up down same down same up down downMedium run:same up down same down same up down down4. a. After an increase in the level of the money supply, output and the interest-rate eventually return to the same level. However, monetary policy is useful, because it can accelerate the return to the natural level of output.b. In the medium run, investment and the interest rate both change with fiscal policy.c. False. Labor market policies, such as unemployment insurance, can affect the naturallevel of output.*5. a. Open answer. Firms may be so pessimistic about sales that they do not want to borrow at any interest rate.b. The IS curve is vertical; the interest rate does not affect equilibrium output.c. No change.d. The AD curve is vertical; the price level does not affect equilibrium output.e. The increase in z reduces the natural level of output and shifts the AS curve up. SincetheAD curve is vertical, output does not change, but prices increase. Note that output is above its natural level.f. The AS curve shifts up forever, and prices keep increasing forever. Output does notchange, and remains above its natural level forever.6. a. The natural level of output is Y n. Assuming that output starts at is naturallevel, P0= M0- (1/c)*Y nb. Assuming that P e=P0: Y = 2cM0-cP=2cM0-cP0-cdY+cdY nRecalling that Y n=c(M0-P0): Y= Y n+ (c/(1+c d))*M0c. Investment goes up because output is higher and the interest rate is lower.d. In the medium run, Y = Y ne. In the medium run, investment returns to its previous level, because output and the interestrate return to their previous levels.CHAPTER 81.a.Trb.Fac.Fad.Tre.Faf.Tr2. a. No. In the 1970s, we experienced high inflation and high unemployment. The expectations- augmented Phillips curve is a relationship between inflation and unemployment conditional on the natural rate and inflation expectations. Given inflation expectations,increases in the natural rate (which result from adverse shocks to labor market institutions—increases in z—or from increases in the markup—which encompass oil shocks) lead to an increase in both theunemployment rate and the inflation rate. In addition, increases in inflation expectations imply higher inflation for any level of unemployment and tend to increase the unemployment rate inthe short run (think of an increase in the expected price level, given last period’s price, in the AD-AS framework). In the 1970s, both the natural rate and expected inflation increased, so both unemployment and inflation were relatively high.b. No. The expectations-augmented Phillips curve implies that maintaining a rate ofunemployment below the natural rate requires increasing (not simply high) inflation. This is because inflation expectations continue to adjust to actual inflation.3. a. u n=0.1/2 =5%b. t=0.1-2*.03 = 4% every year beginning with year t.c. e= 0 and =4% forever. Inflation expectations will be forever wrong. This isunlikely.t td. ⎝ m ight increase because people’s inflation expectations adapt to persistently positiveinflation. The increase in ⎝ has no effect on u n.e. 5= 4+.1-.06=4%+4%=8%For t>5, repeated substitution implies, t= 5+(t-5)*4%.So, 10=28%; 15=48%.f. Inflation expectations will again be forever wrong. This is unlikely.4. a. t= t-1+ 0.1 - 2u t= t-1+ 2%t=2%; t+1=4%; t+2=6%; t+3=8%.b. t=0.5 t+ 0.5 t-1+ 0.1 - 2u tor, t= t-1+ 4%4. c. t=4%; t+1=8%; t+2=12%; t+3=16%d. As indexation increases, low unemployment leads to a larger increase in inflation overtime.5. a. A higher cost of production means a higher markup.b. u n=(0.08+0.1⎧)/2; Thus, the natural rate of unemployment increases from 5% to 6% as⎧increases from 20% to 40%.6. a. Yes. The average rate of unemployment is down. In addition, the unemploymentrate is at a historical low and inflation has not risen.b. The natural rate of unemployment has probably decreased.7. An equation that seems to fit well is: t- t-1=6-u t, which implies a natural rate of approximately 6%.8. The relationships imply a lower natural rate in the more recent period.CHAPTER 91. F TT F FT TT2. a. The unemployment rate will increase by 1% per year when g=0.5%. Unemploymentwill increase unless the growth rate exceeds the sum of productivity growth and labor force growth.b. We need growth of 4.25% per year for each of the next four years.c. Okun’s law is likely to become: u t-u t-1=-0.4*(g yt-5%)3. a. u n= 5%b. g yt= 3%; g mt=g yt+ t= 11%c. u g yt g mtt-1:8%5%3%11%t:4%9%-7%-3%t+1:4%5%13%17%t+2:4%5%3%7%4. a. t- t-1= -(u t-.05)u t- u t-1= -.4*(g mt- t-.03)b. t=6.3%; u t=8.7%t+1=1%; u t+1=10.3%c. u=5%; g y=3%; =-3%;5. a. See text for full answer. Gradualism reduces need for large policy swings, with effectsthat are difficult to predict, but immediate reduction may be more credible and encourage rapid, favorable changes in inflation expectations. On the other hand, the staggering of wagedecisions suggests that, if the policy is credible, a gradual disinflation is the optionconsistent with no change in the unemployment rate.b. Not clear, probably fast disinflation, depending on the features inc.5. c. Some important features: the degree of indexation, the nature of the wage-settingprocess, and the initial rate of inflation.*6. a. u n=K/2; sacrifice ratio=.5 b. t=10%; t+1=8%; t+2=6%; t+3=4%; t+4=2%c. 5 years; sacrifice ratio=(5 point years of excess unemployment)/(10 percentage pointreduction in inflation)=.5d. t=7.5%; t+1=4.125%; t+2=1.594%; 3 years of higher unemployment for a reduction of10%: sacrifice ratio=0.3 e. t+1f. Take measures to enhance credibility.7. a. Inflation will start increasing.b.It should let unemployment increase to its new, higher, natural rate.Chapter 101. TTTFFFTU2. a. Example: France: (1.042)48*5.150=$37.1 k.Germany: $43.4 k; Japan: $76.5 k; UK: $22.5 k; U.S.:$31.7k b. 2.4c. yes.3. a. $5,000b. 2,500 pesos c. $500d. $1,000e. Mexican standard of living relative to the U.S.—exchange rate method:1/10; PPP method: 1/54. a. Y=63b. Y doubles. c. Yes.d. Y/N=(K/N)1/2e. K/N=4 implies Y/N=2. K/N=8 implies Y/N=2.83. Output less than doubles.f. No.g. No. In part f, we are looking at what happens to output when we increasecapital only, not capital and labor in equal proportion. There are decreasing returns tocapital.h. Yes.5. The United States was making the most important technical advances. However, theother countries were able to make up much of their technological gap by importing thetechnologies developed in the United States, and hence, have higher technological progress.6.Convergence for the France, Belgium, and Italy; no convergence for the second set ofcountriesChapter 111. a. Uncertain. True if saving includes public and private saving. False if saving onlyincludes private saving.b. False.c.Uncert UTFFd2. a. No. (1) The Japanese rate of growth is not so high anymore. (2) If the Japanesesaving rate has always been high, then this cannot explain the difference between the rate of growth inJapan and the US in the last 40 or 50 years. (3) If the Japanese saving rate has been higher thanit used to be, then this can explain some of the high Japanese growth. The contribution of high saving to growth in Japan should, however, come to an end.3. After a decade: higher growth rate. After five decades: growth rate back to normal, higher level of output per worker.4. a. Higher saving. Higher output per workerb. Same output per worker. Higher output per capita.5.*YYYd. Y/N = (K/N)1/3e. In steady state, sf(K/N) = ™K/N, which, given the production function in part d,implies: K/N=(s/™)3/2f. Y/N =(s/™)1/2g. Y/N = 2h. Y/N = 21/26.* a. 1b. 1c. K/N=.35; Y/N=.71d. Using equation (11.3), the evolution of K/N is: 0.9, 0.82, 0.757. a. K/N=(s/(2™))2; Y/N=s/(4™) b. C/N=s(1-s)/(4™)c-e. Y/N increases with s; C/N increases until s=.5, then decreases. CHAPTER 121.TFTFTFTUF2. a. Lower growth in poorer countries. Higher growth in rich countries.b. Increase in R&D and in output growth.c. A decrease in the fertility of applied research; a (small) decrease in growth.d. A decrease in the appropriability of drug research. A drop in the development of newdrugs. Lower technological progress and lower growth.3. See discussion in section 12.2.4. Examples will vary. Weakening patent protection would accelerate diffusion, but mightalso discourage R&D.5. a. Year 1: 3000; Year 2: 3960b. Real GDP: 3300; output growth: 10%c. 20%d. Real GDP/Worker=30 in both years; productivity growth is zero.e. RealGDP:3990;outputgrowth:33%.f. -0.8%g. Proper measurement implies real gdp/worker=36.3 in year 2. With improper measurement, productivity growth would be 21 percentage points lower and inflation 21% points higher.6. a. Both lead to an initial decrease in growthb. Only the first leads to a permanent decrease in growth7. a. (K/(AN))*=(s/( +g A+g N))2=1; (Y/(AN))*=(1)1/2; g Y/(AN)=0; g Y/N=4%; g Y=6%b. (K/(AN))=(4/5)2; (Y/(AN))*=(4/5); g Y/(AN)=0; g Y/N=8%; g Y=10%c. (K/(AN))=(4/5)2; (Y/(AN))*=(4/5); g Y/(AN)=0; g Y/N=4%; g Y=10%People are better off in case a. Given any set of initial values, the level of technology is the same in cases a and c, but the level of capital per effective worker is higher atevery point in time in case a. Thus, since Y/N=A*(Y/(AN))=A*(K/(AN))1/2, output per worker is always higher in case a.8. There is a slowdown in growth and the rate of technological progress in the modernperiod. Japan’s growth rate of technological progress is higher because it is catching up to the U.S. level of technology. Not all of the difference in growth rates of output per worker is attributable to the difference in rates of technological progress. A big part is attributable to the difference in rates of growth of capital per worker.9.* a. ProbablyaffectsA.Thinkofclimate.b.Affects H.c. Affects A. Strong protection tends to encourage more R&D but also to limit diffusion of technology.d. May affect A through diffusion.e. May affect K, H, and A. Lower tax rates increase the after-tax return on investment,and thus tend to lead to more accumulation of K and H and more R&D spending.f. If we interpret K as private capital, than infrastructure affects A—e.g., bettertransportation networks may make the economy more productive by reducing congestion time.g. Assuming no technological progress, lower population growth implies highersteady-state level of output per worker. Lower population growth leads to higher capital per worker. Ifthere is technological progress, there is no steady-state level of output per worker. In this case, however, lower population growth implies that output per worker will be higher at every point in time, for any given path of technology. See the answer to problem 7c.Chapter 131.FFTTTTTTF2. a. u=1-(1/(1+⎧))(A/A e)b. u=1-(1/(1+⎧))=4.8%c. No. Since wages adjust to expected productivity, an increase in productivityeventuallyleads to equiproportional increases in the real wage implied by wage setting and price setting, at the original natural rate of unemployment. So equilibrium can bemaintained without any change in the natural rate of unemployment.3.* a. P=P e(1+⎧)(A e/A)(Y/L)(1/A)b. AS shifts down. Given A e/A=1, an increase in A implies a fall in P, given Y. Thisoccurs because for a given level of Y, unemployment is higher, so wages are lower and so, in turn, is the price level.c. There is now an additional effect, a fall in A e/A. In effect, workers do not receive asmuchof an increase in wages as warranted by the increase in productivity. Compared to part b, nominal wages are lower, leading to a lower value of P given Y.4. Discussion question.5. a. Reduce the gap, if this leads to an increase in the relative supply of skilled workers.b. Reduce the gap, since it leads to a decrease in the relative supply of unskilled workers.c. Reduce the gap, since it leads to an increase in the relative supply of skilled workers.d. Increase the gap, if U.S. firms hire unskilled workers in Central America, since itreduces the relative demand for U.S. unskilled workers.6. a. Textiles production is moving to low wage countries.b. Possibly demographic changes, increased availability of child care outside the home,decline in labor supply for these positions.c. Technological progress.7. Discussion question.CHAPTER 141. TTTFTFTTF The nominal interest rate is always positive.The real interest rate can be negative.2. a. Real. Nominal profits are likely to move with inflation; real profits are easier to forecast.b. Nominal. The payments are nominal.c. Nominal. If lease payments are in nominal terms, as is typical.3. a. Exact: r=(1+.04)/(1+.02)-1=1.96%; Approximation: r=.04-.02=2%b. 3.60%; 4%c. 5.48%; 8%4. a. No. Otherwise, nobody would hold bonds. Money would be more appealing: it pays at leasta zero nominal interest rate and can be used for transactions.b. Yes. The real interest rate will be negative if expected inflation exceeds the nominalinterest rate. Even so, the real interest rate on bonds (which pay nominal interest) willexceed the real interest rate on money (which does not pay nominal interest) by the nominal interest rate.c. A negative real interest rate makes borrowing very attractive, and leads to a largedemand for investment.5. a. The discount rate is the interest rate. So EPDV are (i) $2,000*(1-.25) under eitherinterest rate and (ii) (1-.2)*$2,000 under either interest rate.b. The interest rate does not enter the calculation. Hence, you prefer ii to i since 20%<25%. Note that the answer to parta does not imply that saving will not accumulate. By retirement,the initial investment will have grown by a factor of (1+i)40in nominal terms and (1+r)40in real terms. As long as r is positive, the purchasing power of the initial investment will grow.In addition, this simple example omits an important real-world feature of retirement savings: the tax-free accrual of interest. As a result of this feature, the effective interest rate on。
目 录第一章 导 论第一篇 宏观经济的长期模型第二章 宏观经济的衡量与均衡第三章 经济增长第四章 失 业第五章 通货膨胀第六章 开放经济第二篇 宏观经济的短期模型第七章 总需求与总供给第八章 总需求理论第九章 总供给理论第十章 开放经济的短期均衡第十一章 宏观经济政策和理论第三篇 宏观经济模型的深化第十二章 消费理论第十三章 投资理论第十四章 政府支出和税收第十五章 货币供给和需求第十六章 宏观经济学流派第一章 导 论1.宏观经济学的研究对象是什么?它与微观经济学有什么区别?答:(1)宏观经济学的研究对象主要包括以下几个方面:①经济增长。
经济增长是指一个国家总产出水平的不断提高,宏观经济学研究一国经济增长的决定以及人均产出增长率。
②经济周期。
经济周期指的是经济运行过程中出现的阶段性的不规则的上下波动。
经济周期通常用实际国内生产总值(可表示为GDP)、失业率、股票价格和通货膨胀率等宏观经济指标的波动来衡量。
③失业。
根据失业产生的原因,可以把失业分为摩擦性失业、结构性失业和周期性失业,了解这三种类型的失业,对于宏观经济的分析非常重要。
④通货膨胀。
通货膨胀简称通胀,指的是一国平均价格水平的上升。
与它相反的是通货紧缩,代表一国平均价格水平的下降。
平均价格水平通常用价格指数来衡量。
⑤开放经济。
在当前的世界经济格局中,任何一个有一定规模的国家的经济都是一个与其他国家有着大量贸易和金融联系的经济体,或者说是开放经济。
在开放经济条件下,任何一国经济的发展都在不同程度上受到其他国家经济发展的影响和制约。
宏观经济学的研究范围就包括国与国之间经济纽带的联结方式以及由此产生的各国经济的相互依存关系。
⑥宏观经济政策。
宏观经济政策是从全局上对经济运行施加影响的经济政策。
财政政策和货币政策是两种最主要的宏观经济政策形式。
(2)宏观经济学与微观经济学是经济学的两大部分,二者既相互联系又有所区别,宏观经济学与微观经济学的区别主要体现在以下几个方面:①基本假设不同。
《宏观经济学》考研布兰查德版2021考研复习笔记世界之旅第1章复习笔记 1.1一、经济危机1经济危机的产生复杂性和不透明性将房价的下跌变成了严重的金融危机,由于不知道其他银行在其资产负债表上所记载的资产的质量,银行极度不愿意彼此借贷,担心借款银行无力偿还。
由于无法借款,加之资产价值的不确定性较大,很多银行陷入了困境。
本次金融危机很快演变成了严重的经济危机:股价暴跌。
2.美国的经济危机对其他国家的影响美国的经济危机很快变成了世界性危机,主要通过两条途径影响其他国家:①贸易。
由于美国消费者和企业减少支出,部分体现在对进口商品支出的减少上。
站在向美国出口商品的国家角度上思考,出口减少了,产出也随之下降;②金融。
美国的银行对资金的极度需求以及资金从其他国家撤离,对他国银行同样造成了不利影响,结果导致了全球范围内的经济衰退。
二、美国1美国的经济从经济角度看,美国是世界上最大的国家。
美国的生活标准非常高,它不是世界上人均产出最高的国家,但是接近最高。
经济危机之后增长再次放缓,经济变得很脆弱,失业率被认为会在很长一段时间内居高不下,通货膨胀率被认为会保持在较低水平。
除了高失业率,美国面对的最严重的宏观经济问题是其巨大的财政赤字。
2.美国的财政赤字在1990~1991年衰退引起的赤字增加之后,美国联邦财政预算余额在接下来的几年有了持续改善:1998年,预算余额从赤字转为盈余。
预算余额持续改善的主要原因有两方面:①在这十年的大部分时间里,产出增长强劲,这使得政府收入有了大幅增加;②制定并实施了一些规则,以控制政府支出。
这些规则包括在一些支出项目上设置支出上限,或者规定任何新的支出项目必须能产生等额的收入增加。
在危机发生前夕,即2007年,赤字达到了GDP的1.7%,虽然不高但毕竟是一笔赤字。
经济危机对政府预算赤字产生了很大影响,2010年赤字比例达到9%。
赤字增加背后的原因很明确:较低的产出导致了较低的财政收入。
高级宏观经济学_第四版_中文_罗默课后题答案第2章无限期模型与世代交叠模型2.1 考虑N个厂商,每个厂商均有规模报酬不变的生产函数,()Y F K AL=,,或者采用紧凑形式.假设。
假设所有厂商都能以工资wA雇用劳动,以成本r租赁资本,并且所有厂商的A值都相同。
(a)考虑厂商生产Y单位产出的成本最小化问题.证明使成本最小化的k值唯一确定并独立于Y,并由此证明所有厂商都选择相同的k值.(b)考虑某单个厂商,若其具有相同生产函数,并且其劳动和资本的投入是上述N个厂商的总和,证明其产出也等于述N个厂商成本最小化的总产出。
证明:(a)题目的要求是厂商选择资本K和有效劳动AL以最小化成本,同时厂商受到生产函数的约束。
这是一个典型的最优化问题.构造拉格朗日函数:求一阶导数:得到:上式潜在地决定了最佳资本k的选择。
很明显,k的选择独立于Y。
上式表明,资本和有效劳动的边际产品之比必须等于两种要素的价格之比,这便是成本最小化条件。
(b)因为每个厂商拥有同样的k和A,则N个成本最小化厂商的总产量为:为N个厂商总的雇佣人数,单一厂商拥有同样的A并且选择相同数量的k,k的决定独立于Y的选择.因此,如果单一厂商拥有的劳动人数,则它也会生产的产量。
这恰好是N个厂商成本最小化的总产量。
2。
2 相对风险规避系数不变的效用函数的替代弹性.设想某个人只活两期,其效用函数由方程(2.43)给定。
令和分别表示消费品在这两期中的价格,W 表示此人终生收入的价值,因此其预算约束是:(a)已知和和W,则此人效用最大化的和是多少?(b)两期消费之间的替代弹性为,或。
证明,若效用函数为(2.43)式,是则与之间的替代弹性为.答:(a)这是一个效用最大化的优化问题。
(1)(2) 求解约束条件:(3)将方程(3)代入(1)中,可得:(4)这样便将一个受约束的最优化问题转变为一个无约束问题。
在方程(4)两边对求一阶条件可得:解得:(5)将方程(5)代入(3),则有:解得:(6) 将方程(6)代入(5)中,则有:(7)(b)由方程(5)可知第一时期和第二时期的消费之比为:(8) 对方程(8)两边取对数可得:(9)则消费的跨期替代弹性为:因此,越大,表明消费者越愿意进行跨期替代。