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第九章财务预算学习目标：通过本章的学习，要求掌握财务预算的具体构成内容，掌握弹性预算、零基预算和滚动预算等具体方法的特征及操作技巧；理解财务预算编制程序和方法；了解财务预算的概念和作用，了解固定预算、增量预算和定期预算的含义及内容。
第一节财务预算概述一、财务预算的概念及内容全面预算就是企业未来一定期间内全部经营活动各项具体目标的计划与相应措施的数量说明。
具体包括特种决策预算、日常业务预算和财务预算三大类内容。
其中，财务预算是一系列专门反映企业未来一定预算期内预计财务状况和经营成果，以及现金收支等价值指标的各种预算总称。
具体包括反映现金收支活动的现金预算、反映企业财务状况的预计资产负债表、反映企业财务成果的预计损益表和预计现金流量表等内容。
二、财务预算的作用财务预算是企业全面预算体系中的组成部分，它在全面预算体系中具有重要的作用，主要表现在：（一）财务预算使决策目标具体化、系统化和定量化在现代企业财务管理中，财务预算必须服从决策目标的要求，尽量做到全面地、综合地协调、规划企业内部各部门、各层次的经济关系与职能，使之统一服从于未来经营总体目标的要求。
同时，财务预算又能使决策目标具体化、系统化和定量化，能够明确规定企业有关生产经营人员各自职责及相应的奋斗目标，做到人人事先心中有数。
（二）财务预算是总预算，其余预算是辅助预算财务预算作为全面预算体系中的最后环节，可以从价值方面总括地反映经营特种决策预算与业务预算的结果，使预算执行情况一目了然。
（三）财务预算有助于财务目标的顺利实现通过财务预算，可以建立评价企业财务状况的标准，以预算数作为标准的依据，将实际数与预算数对比，及时发现问题和调整偏差，使企业的经济活动按预定的目标进行，从而实现企业的财务目标。
编制财务预算，并建立相应的预算管理制度，可以指导与控制企业的财务活动，提高预见性，减少盲目性，使企业的财务活动有条不紊地进行。
第二节财务预算的编制方法一、固定预算与弹性预算（一）固定预算固定预算又称静态预算，是把企业预算期的业务量固定在某一预计水平上，此为基础来确定其它项目预计数的预算方法。
CHAPTER 9 MANAGEMENT OF ECONOMIC EXPOSURESUGGESTED ANSWERS AND SOLUTIONS TO END-OF-CHAPTERQUESTIONS AND PROBLEMSQUESTIONS1. How would you define economic exposure to exchange risk?Answer: Economic exposure can be defined as the possibility that the firm’s cash flows and thus its market value may be affected by the unexpected exchange rate changes.2. Explain the following statement: “Exposure is the regression coefficient.”Answer: Exposure to currency risk can be appropriately measured by th e sensitivity of the firm’s future cash flows and the market value to random changes in exchange rates. Statistically, this sensitivity can be estimated by the regression coefficient. Thus, exposure can be said to be the regression coefficient.3. Suppose that your company has an equity position in a French firm. Discuss the condition under which the dollar/franc exchange rate uncertainty does not constitute exchange exposure for your company.Answer: Mere changes in exchange rates do not necessarily constitute currency exposure. If the French franc value of the equity moves in the opposite direction as much as the dollar value of the franc changes, then the dollar value of the equity position will be insensitive to exchange rate movements. As a result, your company will not be exposed to currency risk.4. Explain the competitive and conversion effects of exchange rate changes on the firm’s operating cash flow.Answer: The competitive effect: exchange rate changes may affect operating cash flows by altering the firm’s competitive position.The conversion effect: A given operating cash flows in terms of a foreign currency will be converted into higher or lower dollar (home currency)amounts as the exchange rate changes.5. Discuss the determinants of operating exposure.Answer: The main determinants of a firm’s operating exposure are (1) the structure of the markets in which the firm sources its inputs, such as labor and materials, and sells its products, and (2) the firm’s ability to mitigate the effect of exchange rate changes by adjusting its markets, product mix, and sourcing.6. Discuss the implications of purchasing power parity for operating exposure.Answer: If the exchange rate changes are matched by the inflation rate differential between countries, firms’ competitive positions will not be altered by exchange rate changes. Firms are not subject to operating exposure.7. General Motors exports cars to Spain but the strong dollar against the peseta hurts sales of GM cars in Spain. In the Spanish market, GM faces competition from the Italian and French car makers, such as Fiat and Renault, whose currencies remain stable relative to the peseta. What kind of measures would you recommend so that GM can maintain its market share in Spain.Answer: Possible measures that GM can take include: (1) diversify the market; try to market the cars not just in Spain and other European countries but also in, say, Asia; (2) locate production facilities in Spain and source inputs locally; (3) locate production facilities, say, in Mexico where production costs are low and export to Spain from Mexico.8. What are the advantages and disadvantages of financial hedging of the firm’s operating exposure vis-à-vis operational hedges (such as relocating manufacturing site)?Answer: Financial hedging can be implemented quickly with relatively low costs, but it is difficult to hedge against long-term, real exposure with financial contracts. On the other hand, operational hedges are costly, time-consuming, and not easily reversible.9. Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of maintaining multiple manufacturing sites as a hedge against exchange rate exposure.Answer: To establish multiple manufacturing sites can be effective in managing exchange risk exposure, but it can be costly because the firm may not be able to take advantage of the economy of scale.10. Evaluate the following statement: “A firm can reduce its currency exposure by diversifying across different business lines.”Answer: Conglomerate expansion may be too costly as a means of hedging exchange risk exposure. Investment in a different line of business must be made based on its own merit.11. The exchange rate uncertainty may not necessarily mean that firms face exchange risk exposure. Explain why this may be the case.Answer: A firm can have a natural hedging position due to, for example, diversified markets, flexible sourcing capabilities, etc. In addition, to the extent that the PPP holds, nominal exchange rate changes do not influenc e firms’ competitive positions. Under these circumstances, firms do not need to worry about exchange risk exposure.PROBLEMS1. Suppose that you hold a piece of land in the City of London that you may want to sell in one year. As a U.S. resident, you are concerned with the dollar value of the land. Assume that, if the British economy booms in the future, the land will be worth £2,000 and one British pound will be worth $1.40. If the British economy slows down, on the other hand, the land will be worth less, i.e., £1,500, but the pound will be stronger, i.e., $1.50/£. You feel that the British economy will experience a boom with a 60% probability and a slow-down with a 40% probability.(a) Estimate your exposure b to the exchange risk.(b) Compute the variance of the dollar value of your property that is attributable to the exchange rate uncertainty.(c) Discuss how you can hedge your exchange risk exposure and also examine the consequences of hedging.Solution: (a) Let us compute the necessary parameter values:E(P) = (.6)($2800)+(.4)($2250) = $1680+$900 = $2,580E(S) = (.6)(1.40)+(.4)(1.5) = 0.84+0.60 = $1.44Var(S) = (.6)(1.40-1.44)2 + (.4)(1.50-1.44)2= .00096+.00144 = .0024.Cov(P,S) = (.6)(2800-2580)(1.4-1.44)+(.4)(2250-2580)(1.5-1.44)= -5.28-7.92 = -13.20b = Cov(P,S)/Var(S) = -13.20/.0024 = -£5,500.You have a negative exposure! As the pound gets stronger (weaker) against the dollar, the dollar value of your British holding goes down (up).(b) b2Var(S) = (-5500)2(.0024) =72,600($)2(c) Buy £5,500 forward. By doing so, you can eliminate the volatility of the dollar value of your British asset that is due to the exchange rate volatility.2. A U.S. firm holds an asset in France and faces the following scenario:In the above table, P* is the euro price of the asset held by the U.S. firm and P is the dollar price of the asset.(a) Compute the exchange exposure faced by the U.S. firm.(b) What is the variance of the dollar price of this asset if the U.S. firm remains unhedged against thisexposure?(c) If the U.S. firm hedges against this exposure using the forward contract, what is the variance of thedollar value of the hedged position?Solution: (a)E(S) = .25(1.20 +1.10+1.00+0.90) = $1.05/€E(P) = .25(1,800+1,540+1,300 +1,080) = $1,430Var(S) = .25[(1.20-1.05)2 +(1.10-1.05)2+(1.00-1.05)2+(0.90-1.05)2]= .0125Cov(P,S) = .25[(1,800-1,430)(1.20-1.05) + (1,540-1,430)(1.10-1.05)(1,300-1,430)(1.00-1.05) + (1,080-1,430)(0.90-1.05)]= 30b = Cov(P,S)/Var(S) = 30/0.0125 = €2,400.(b) Var(P) = .25[(1,800-1,430)2+(1,540-1,430)2+(1,300-1,430)2+(1,080-1,430)2]= 72,100($)2.(c) Var(P) - b2Var(S) = 72,100 - (2,400)2(0.0125) = 100($)2.This means that most of the volatility of the dollar value of the French asset can be removed by hedging exchange risk. The hedging can be achieved by selling €2,400 forward.MINI CASE: ECONOMIC EXPOSURE OF ALBION COMPUTERS PLCConsider Case 3 of Albion Computers PLC discussed in the chapter. Now, assume that the pound is expected to depreciate to $1.50 from the current level of $1.60 per pound. This implies that the pound cost of the imported part, i.e., Intel’s microprocessors, is £341 (=$512/$1.50). Other variables, such as the unit sales volume and the U.K. inflation rate, remain the same as in Case 3.(a) Compute the projected annual cash flow in dollars.(b) Compute the projected operating gains/losses over the four-year horizon as the discounted present value of change in cash flows, which is due to the pound depreciation, from the benchmark case presented in Exhibit 12.4.(c) What actions, if any, can Albion take to mitigate the projected operating losses due to the pound depreciation?Suggested Solution to Economic Exposure of Albion Computers PLCa) The projected annual cash flow can be computed as follows:______________________________________________________Sales (40,000 units at £1,080/unit) £43,200,000Variable costs (40,000 units at £697/unit) £27,880,000Fixed overhead costs 4,000,000Depreciation allowances 1,000,000Net profit before tax £15,315,000Income tax (50%) 7,657,500Profit after tax 7,657,500Add back depreciation 1,000,000Operating cash flow in pounds £8,657,500Operating cash flow in dollars $12,986,250______________________________________________________b) ______________________________________________________Benchmark CurrentVariables Case Case______________________________________________________Exchange rate ($/£) 1.60 1.50Unit variable cost (£) 650 697Unit sales price (£) 1,000 1,080Sales volume (units) 50,000 40,000Annual cash flow (£) 7,250,000 8,657,500Annual cash flow ($) 11,600,000 12,986,250Four-year present value ($) 33,118,000 37,076,946Operating gains/losses ($) 3,958,946______________________________________________________c) In this case, Albion actually can expect to realize exchange gains, rather than losses. This is mainly due to the fact that while the selling price appreciates by 8% in the U.K. market, the variable cost of imported input increased by about 6.25%. Albion may choose not to do anything.。
第九章财务预算学习目标：通过本章的学习，要求掌握财务预算的具体构成内容，掌握弹性预算、零基预算和滚动预算等具体方法的特征及操作技巧；理解财务预算编制程序和方法；了解财务预算的概念和作用，了解固定预算、增量预算和定期预算的含义及内容。
第一节财务预算概述一、财务预算的概念及内容全面预算就是企业未来一定期间内全部经营活动各项具体目标的计划与相应措施的数量说明。
具体包括特种决策预算、日常业务预算和财务预算三大类内容。
其中，财务预算是一系列专门反映企业未来一定预算期内预计财务状况和经营成果，以及现金收支等价值指标的各种预算总称。
具体包括反映现金收支活动的现金预算、反映企业财务状况的预计资产负债表、反映企业财务成果的预计损益表和预计现金流量表等内容。
二、财务预算的作用财务预算是企业全面预算体系中的组成部分，它在全面预算体系中具有重要的作用，主要表现在：（一）财务预算使决策目标具体化、系统化和定量化在现代企业财务管理中，财务预算必须服从决策目标的要求，尽量做到全面地、综合地协调、规划企业内部各部门、各层次的经济关系与职能，使之统一服从于未来经营总体目标的要求。
同时，财务预算又能使决策目标具体化、系统化和定量化，能够明确规定企业有关生产经营人员各自职责及相应的奋斗目标，做到人人事先心中有数。
（二）财务预算是总预算，其余预算是辅助预算财务预算作为全面预算体系中的最后环节，可以从价值方面总括地反映经营特种决策预算与业务预算的结果，使预算执行情况一目了然。
（三）财务预算有助于财务目标的顺利实现通过财务预算，可以建立评价企业财务状况的标准，以预算数作为标准的依据，将实际数与预算数对比，及时发现问题和调整偏差，使企业的经济活动按预定的目标进行，从而实现企业的财务目标。
编制财务预算，并建立相应的预算管理制度，可以指导与控制企业的财务活动，提高预见性，减少盲目性，使企业的财务活动有条不紊地进行。
第二节财务预算的编制方法一、固定预算与弹性预算（一）固定预算固定预算又称静态预算，是把企业预算期的业务量固定在某一预计水平上，此为基础来确定其它项目预计数的预算方法。
答案一、单项选择题1、答案:A解析:本题的主要考核点是内含增长率的计算。
代入公式可求得内含增长率为14.3%。
2、答案:B解析:本题的主要考核点是内含增长率的计算。
设销售增长率为g，因为：0＝1.6―0.4―0.1×[（1＋g）÷g]×(1－0.55)，所以：g＝3.90%当增长率为3.90%时，不需要向外界筹措资金。
销售额为200×（1+3.90%）=207.8（万元）3、答案:D解析:本题的主要考核点是弹性预算的编制前提。
弹性预算的编制前提是将成本按性态分析要求，划分为固定成本和变动成本。
4、答案:B解析:本题的主要考核点是可持续增长率的计算。
可持续增长率＝（0.7×6%×1.5×30%）÷[（1－0.7×6%×1.5×30%）]＝1.93%。
5、答案:B解析:本题的主要考核点是外部融资销售增长比的计算。
外部融资需求量＝3500－190－520＝2790（万元），则外部融资销售增长比＝2790/6000＝46.5%。
6、答案:B解析:本题的主要考核点是弹性预算的业务量范围的确定。
弹性预算的业务量范围，一般来说，可定在正常生产能力的70%—110%之间，或以历史上最高业务量和最低业务量为其上下限。
7、答案:B解析:本题考核的主要考核点是有关业务预算的编制。
销售费用预算是在销售预算的基础上编制的，其他预算则是在生产预算上编制的。
8、答案:D解析:该企业2004年度应追加资金量＝×100－×100－50＝150（万元）9、答案:B解析:本题的主要考核点是外部融资需求量的计算公式。
若用增量公式，公式中的各项目都要采用增量计算；若用总量公式，公式中的各项目都要采用总量计算。
其中掌握增量计算公式。
10、答案:C解析:本题的主要考核点是采购现金流出的计算。
全年销售成本＝8000×（1－28%）＝5760（万元）2007年年末存货＝5760/8＝720（万元）由于假设全年均衡销售，所以，第四季度预计销售成本＝5760/4＝1440（万元）第四季度预计的采购现金流出＝期末存货＋本期销货－期初存货＝720＋1440－480＝1680（万元）。
