Macroeconomics_exam_20090630_XiaoLiping[]武汉大学宏观经济学试卷

习题集一Question 1In Australia ,using 2000-01 as the base year, we would find that:a)Nominal GDP is always larger than real GDP.b)Real GDP is always larger than nominal GDP for the period 1960 to 2000.c)Real GDP is larger than nominal GDP from 1998 to 2002.d)Real GDP is smaller than nominal GDP from 1988 to 1995.e)Real GDP and nominal GDP would be equal for the entire period.Note: please see figure 2.1 on page 31 of the text book.Question 2During the date 1990s, Japan experienced reductions in the GDP deflator. Given this information, we know with certainty that:a)Real GDP fell during these periods.b)Real GDP did not change during these periods.c)The overall price level in Japan decreased during these periods.d)Both real GDP and the overall price level decreased during these periods. Question 3Suppose that in January 2003 in Australia, 200 million people are working, 20 million are not working but are looking for work, and 40 million are not working and have given up looking for work. The official unemployment rate for that month is:a)7.7%b)9.1%c)10%d)23%e)30%Question 4A country using the Australian system of unemployment statistics has 100 million people, of whom 50 million are working age. Of these 50 million, 20 million have jobs. Of the remainder: 10 million are actively searching for jobs; 10 million would like jobs but are not searching; and 10 million do not want jobs at all.The labour force is:a)10 millionb)20 millionc)30 milliond)40 millione)50 millionQuestion 5Suppose the consumption equation is represented by the following: C=100+ .75Y D. The multiplier in this economy is_______.a)0.25b)0.75c) 1.33d) 2e) 4Question 6The paradox of saving suggests that an increase in the desire to save will cause:a)An incease in equilibrium GDP.b) A reduction in GDP.c)An increase in the desire to invest.d)No change in equilibrium GDP.e) A permanent increase in the level of saving.Note: Please see definition of “ paradox of saving” on page 674 of the text book.( saving S↑→Y↓→S↓(S=Y-T-C) so,saving is unchanged )Question 7When C= C0+C1Y D, an increase in C0 will cause which of the following to increase?a)Equilibrium incomeb)Equilibrium disposable incomec)Equilibrium savingd)All of the abovee)None of the aboveQuestion 8Suppose the central bank wishes to conduct expansionary monetary policy. Given this, we would expect which of the following to occur?a) A central bank purchase of bonds and an increase in the interest rateb) A central bank purchase of bonds and a reduction in the interest ratec) A central bank sale of bonds and an increase in the interest rated) A central bank sale of bonds and a reduction in the interest rateQuestion 9Suppose the money supply decreased. Which of the following events could cause this?a)An increase in the monetary baseb) A decrease in the ratio of reserves to depositsc) A shift in public preferences away from currency toward current accountdepositsd)All of the abovee)None of the aboveQuestion 10Suppose there is an open market sale of bonds. Such an event will cause:a)An increase in bond prices and an increase in the interest rate(i)b) A reduction in bond prices and an increase in i.c)An increase in bond prices and a reduction in i.d) A reduction in abond prices and a reduction in i.e)None of the aboveQuestion 11After a contractionary fiscal policy:a)The LM curve shifts and we move along the IS curve.b)The IS curve shifts and we move along the LM curve.c)Both the IS and LM curve shift.d)Neither the IS nor the LM curve shifts.e)Output will change causing a chage in money demand and a shift of the LMcurve.Quetsion 12Suppose there is a tax cut. Which of the following represents the complete list of variables that must increase in response to this tax cut?a)Consumptionb)Consumption and investmentc)Consumption, investment and outputd)Consumption and outpute)Consumption, output and the interest rateQuestion 13If efficiency wage theory is valid,we would expect a relatively high premium over the reservation wage when:a)The unemployment rate is high.b)The job requires very little training.c)Workers cannot be easily monitored.d)Workers have few other options for employment in the area.e)All of the aboveQuestion 14The natural level of output is the level of output that occurs when:a)The goods market is in equilibrium.b)The economy is operating at the unemployment rate consistent with both thewage-setting and price-setting equations.c)The financial markets are in equilibrium.d)The unemployment rate is zero.e)Both the goods and financial markets are in equilibrium.Question 15Use the following Phillips curve equation to answer this question: πt -πt-1 = (μ+z)-αu t.A permanent reduction in the unemployment rate causes:a)An increase in the markup over labour costs.b) A decrease in the markup over labour costs.c)An increase in the inflation rate over time.d) A decrease in the inflation rate over time.e)None of the aboveQuestion 16If policymakers underestimate the natural rate of unemployment, they may follow policies that cause Australia to have:a)More unemployment than necessary.b)An unemployment rate that is “to high”c) A higher inflation rate than necessary.d) A steadily decreasing inflation rate.e) A dramatically fluctuating unemployment rate.Question 17Based on a dynamic AD relation when the central bank controls nominal money, output growth will equal zero when which of the following conditions is satisfied?a)0% nominal money growth; 4% inflationb)4% nonminal money growth; 0% inflationc)-4% nominal money growth; 3% inflationd)4% nominal money growth; 4% inflatione)None of the aboveNote: dynamic AD relation: g y = g m - p. So, if g m = p = 4%, g y = 0.Question 18In the medium run, a reduction in the rate of inflation target will cause:a)An increase in the size of the sacrifice ratio.b) A reduction in the size of the sacrifice ratio.c) A reduction in adjusted money growth.d) A reduction in the rate of inflation.e)Both C and DNote: Please see figure 9.3 on page 217 of the text book.Question 19Which of the following will increase the steady-state growth rate of capital?a)An increase in the saving rateb)An increase in the population growth ratec) A temporary increase in technological progressd)All of the abovee)None of the aboveNote: Please see figure 12.3 on page 282 of the text book.Question 20Which of the following has been proposed as an explanation for the slowdown in technological progress since the mid-1970s?a)Measurement errorb) A dicline in manufacturing’s share in GDPc) A decline in spending on research and developmentd)All of the abovee)None of the aboveNote: Please see page 272- 274 of the text book of the last year.Question 21Which of the following is true whenever the inflation rate is positve?a)The real interest rate must be greater than the nominal interest rate.b)The real interest rate must be negative.c)The real interest rate must be positive.d)The nominal interest rate must be negative.e)None of the aboveQuestion 22If the nominal interest rate in 20% per year, how much money can an individual borrow today if she wants to repay $200 in one year?a)$240.00b)$150.00c)$160.00d)$166.67e)$180.00Note: 200/(1+20%) = $166.67Question 23Assume that the yield curve is downward-sloping yield curve. This suggests that financial market participants expect short-term interest rates to:a)Increase in the future.b)Decrease in the future.c)Be unstable in the future.d)Not change in the future.e)Rise in the near future, and fall in the more distant future.Question 24In general, when the short-term interest rates decrease, long-term rates will:a)Increaseb)Remain the same.c)Decrease by more than the short-term rate.d)Decrease by the same amount as the short-term rate.e)Decrease, but by less than the short-term rate.Question 25Which of following represents non-human wealth?a)Total wealth minus the present discounted value of expected future after-taxlabour incomeb)Total wealth minus financial wealthc)Wealth that cannot be taken from a person, by lawd)Financial wealth minus housing wealthe)Total wealth minuse housing wealthQuestion 26Suppose individuals expect that interest rates will rise in the future. Also assume that the RBA wants to prevent any change in current output. Given this goal of the RBA, the RBA should implement a plocy in the current period that:a)Shifts the IS cruve rightward.b)Shifts the IS curve leftward.c)Shifts the IS curve leftward and the LM curve upward.d)Shifts the LM curve upward.e)Shifts the LM curve downward.Question 27Suppose there is a real appreciation of the Australian dollar. Which of the following may have occurred?a)Foreign currency has become less expensive in the Australian dollars.b)Foreign goods have become more expensive to Americans.c)The foreign price level has increased relative to the Australian price level.d)All of the abovee)None of the aboveNote: e = EP/ P*Question 28An increase in the real exchange rate indicates that:a)Foreign goods are now relatively cheaper.b)Foreign goods are now relatively more expensive.c)Domestic goods are now relatively more expensive.d)Both A and CNote: e = EP/ P*. so P↑ or P*↓→ e↑Question 29Suppose there is a reduction in foreign output(Y*). This reduction in Y* will cause which of the following in the domestic country?a) A reduction in outputb) A reduction in consumptionc) A reduction in net exportsd)All of the abovee)None of the aboveNote : (1) Y*↓→ X↓→NX↓→Z↓→Y↓(2) C↓ = c0 + c1(Y↓ -T)Question 30Suppose net exports are postive(NX>0) for a country. Given this information, we know that:a)Demand for domestic goods will be equal to the domestic demand for goods.b)Demand for domestic goods will be greater than the domestic demand forgoods.c)Demand for domestic goods will be less than the domestic demand for goods.d) A budget surplus exists.Note : domestic demand for goods: DD = C+I+Gdemand for domestic goods: ZZ = C+I+G+NX = DD + NXQuestion 31In an open economy under flexible exchange rates, a reduction in the interest rate will cause an increase in which of the follwing?a)Investmentb)Exportsc)Net exportsd)All of the abovee)None of the aboveQuestion 32Suppose a country inplements simultaneously a fiscal expansion and monetarycontraction. In a flexible exchangerate regime, we know with certainty that:a)The exchange rate and output would both increase.b)The exchange rate would increase and output would decrease.c)The exchange rate would increase.d)The exchange rate would decrease output would increase.Question 33Which of the following explains why the Great Depression did not end sooner?a)An increase in the nominal money stockb)An increase in the price levelc)The presence of a liquidity trapd)All of the abovee)None of the aboveQuestion 34In the IS-LM model, an increase in the expected rate of deflation will cause:a)An increase in demand.b)An increase in the nominal interest rate.c)An increase in the real interest rate.d)An increase in the nominal money supply.e) A decrease in the nominal money supply.Note: r ≈ i - p eQuestion 35A dangerous sign for hyperinflation is when the government finances a growing proportion of its budget deficit through:a)Monetisationb)Tax collections.c)Bonds sold to foreigners.d)Bonds sold to domestic citizens.e)Voluntary contributions.Question 36Seignorage, the revenue from money creation, equals which of the following? a)The rate of inflationb)The rate of inflation times real money balancesc)Real money balancesd)The percentage growth rate of real moneye)The percentage growth rate of nominal money times real money balances Note : Seignorage =△M/P = (△M/M)(M/P)Question 37Due to uncertainty about the impact of monetary policy, it would be best for the central bank to increase money growth:a) 3 months after the start of a recession.b)By more than the increase that will get the desired response.c)By less than the increase that will get the desired response.d)Only when it can be certain about the value of Okun’s coefficient and thetiming of its impacts.e)Only after it is centain that the economy has entered a recession.Question 38The problem of time inconsistency in macro policy suggests that a nation might be better off:a)Using fiscal and monetary policy to fine tune the economy.b)Reducing the independence of the central bank.c)Appointing someone who is more conservative than the rest of thegovernment to head the central bank.d)Intervening frequently in the foreign exchange market.e)Eliminating rational expectations from econometric models used forforecasting.Question 39According to Keynes:a)The Great Depression was caused by ill-considered expansionary fiscal policy.b)Balancing the budget in the midst of a depression would be a serious mistake.c)Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.d)The Phillips curve is stable.e)None of the aboveQuestion 40Which of the following events led to the crisis in macroeconomics and to thedevelopment of rational expectations theory?a)The Great Depressionb)The stock market crash of 1987c)The stock market speculative bubble of the late 1990sd)Stagflation in the 1970se)Large budget deficits in the 1980s.Question 41Explain the concept of neutrality of money.( please see p673 of the text book and the slides of module 3(cont.). ) Question 42Explain the concept of time inconsistency.( please see the slides of module 6 (cont.) )Question 43Define each of the following terms:a)Okun’s Lawb)Sacrifice ratioc)Financial wealthQuestion 44Suppose some countries have been experiencing a slow-down in economic growth for last 2years. The slow-down was associated with a downturn in consumer confidence. The governments of these countries are thinking to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies (by increasing government expenditure and reducing interest rates) to overcome the situation. Using an IS-LM model, analyse the slow-down in growth and the short run effects of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.Answer: ( please draw the Is and LM curve ) Question 45a)Consider an economy with output below the natural level and the nominalinterest rate equal to zero. Illustrate this economy in an IS-LM diagram.b)Under normal circumstances, how does the economy return to the naurallevel of output? Does this adjustment mechanism work when the nominal interest rate equals zero?c)Suppose the central bank wants to use monetary policy to return theeconomy to its natural level of output. Can it do so when the nominal interest rate is equal to zero? What happens if the central bank tries to use expansionary monetary policy? Illustrate your answer in an IS-LM diagram.d)In principle, can fiscal policy be used to restore the economy to its naturallevel of output when the nominal interest rate equals zero? If so, explain how the appropriate policy affects output. If not, explain why not.e)Consider the following policy advice: ‘Since the central bank can act to keepthe economy at the natural level of output, the government should never use fiscal policy to stimulate the economy.’Do your answers to this question support this advice?Answer: ( please see slides 13-31 of module 6 )。

Microeconomics T est ( Mid-T erm —Nov. 2009)SECTION A : Multiple choice questions. Students should attempt to find the best answer foreach question. Each question is worth two mark (2).1.The basic economic problem of scarcity and the need to make choices arise becausea. when prices rise it is more difficult for consumers to satisfy all their wants.b. human wants are practically unlimited while economic resources are limited.c. all resources are limited irrespective of the pattern of human wants.d. it is not always obvious what the opportunity cost is in making a particular economicdecision.Figure 1 2.Consider Figure 1 above. If the Production Possibilities Frontier pivots out from position A to position B as shown, then the economy hasa. increased the efficiency with which it produced wheat.b. increased the efficiency with which it produced tractors.c. has put previously unemployed resources to work.d.gone from full employment to less than full employment.Figure 23. Consider Figure 2 above. If a change in supply occurs, shifting the supply curve from S 1 toS 2 in the diagram, which of the following events could not have caused the change in supply?a. an improvement in the state of technology in the industry.Priceb. a fall in the price of capital equipment employed in the industry.c. a rise in the price per unit of the good supplied by the firms in the industry.d. a significant increase in the number of firms operating in the industry.4. Which of the following impacts on the demand curve for wool does not cause a change in demand for wool?a. An increase in the disposable income of consumers purchasing woolen products.b. A fall in the price of cotton fabrics due to a surplus in supply of cotton.c. A fall in the price of wool per unit.d. A successful marketing campaign for woolen products by the Wool Marketing Board.5. If when the price of good Y is observed to fall by 20% the demand for good X is observedto increase by 10%, then, we can say that the two goods area. substitutes and exhibit a relatively inelastic cross price elasticity of demand.b. complements and exhibit a relatively inelastic cross price elasticity of demand.c. substitutes and exhibit a relatively elastic cross price elasticity of demand.d. complements and exhibit a relatively elastic cross price elasticity of demand.6. Which one is considered as a microeconomic problem?a. inflationb. unemploymentc. economic growthd. consumer’s decisions7. Which one belongs to the “normative economic statement”?a. The GDP growth rate of China last year is 10%b. The unemployment rate of Australian last year is 5%c. Higher federal budget deficits will cause interest rates to increase.d. Federal budget deficits should be reduced.8.The slope of the production possibility frontier (PPF) best represents thea. path along which the economy will move as it growsb. path along which the economy moves as it moves to full employment.c. the opportunity cost of an additional unit of one good in terms of units of another good forgone.d. the resource ratio of capital to labour in the economy given the state of technology.9. In an agricultural market, if the government fixed floor price drifts over timeabove the current competitive market price, it follows that other things constant, a. a shortage (or excess demand) for the good will result forcing the market pricehigher.b. a surplus (or excess supply) will result forcing the government to stock pile thegood at the expense of taxpayers.c. more producers will enter the market because the market is in disequilibrium.d. the government will reduce its stockpile as long as this disequilibrium situationremains.10. The opportunity cost of a new stadium is thea. money cost of hiring guards and staff for the new stadium.b. cost of constructing the new stadium in a future year.c. changes in the tax rates to pay off the new stadium.d. other goods and services that must be sacrificed to construct the new stadium.11.If in a certain market, P d = 100 - 5Q and P s = 30 + 5Q then the marketequilibrium price and quantity area. P = $65; Q = 6 units.b. P = $75; Q = 5 units.c. P = $65; Q = 7 units.d. P = $70; Q = 7 units.12. Which of the following is not a market characteristic of perfect competition?a. Free entry for potential rival firms.b. Highly differentiated products.c. Price-taking behavior by firms.d. the products are the same.13. The price elasticity of demand for pizza is greater than 1.0. Consequently, to increase totalrevenue you shoulda. increase the price of the pizza.b. hold the pizza price constant.c. decrease the price of pizza.d.decrease demand for your pizza.14. Assume that when the price of crude oil is $30 a barrel, 40 million barrels are demanded per day, but when the price rises to $40 a barrel, only 35 million barrels are demanded. Then the demand for oil is said to bea. elastic.b. inelastic. c. unit elastic.d. perfectly elastic.15. Consumer surplus at any point along the demand curve may best be defined asa. the height of the demand curve plus the price of the good.b. the height of the demand curve minus the actual market price paid by consumers.c. the maximum price consumers are willing to pay plus the price they actually pay.d. the height of the demand curve - independent of the market price.Section B: Short answers. Students should attempt to answer any three (3)from the following five (5) short answer questions. Each short answer question is worth fifteen (15) marks.1. Using the apple market to illustrate your discussion, explain carefully the differencebetween the expressions: (i) a change in demand for apples and (ii) a change in the quantity demanded of apples.2. Explain the difference between normal and inferior goods. How does a good’s i ncomeelasticity of demand help in classifying the good as normal or inferior? Give an example of each.3. What do economists mean by the concept of economic efficiency in a market economy?Explain with an appropriate diagram.4.Often it is claimed by consumer groups that a tax on luxury goods like cigarettes and alcoholis “unfair”, as the entire tax will simply be passed on to consumers. Under what special conditions would this actually happen? In what cases might very little of the tax be passed on to consumers? Explain using appropriate market diagrams.5.Discuss the types & the effects of price control.SECTION C: Problem Set questions. Students should attempt to finish One (1) from two (2) questions. Each question is worth twenty-five (25) marks.1. Consider the apple market.(1) Construct an apple market equilibrium diagram with demand curve and supply curve.(2) Indicate the effect on market equilibrium price and quantity when the followinghappens:i) a fall in the price of orangesii) an increase in consumer incomeiii) promotion of apple eating endorsed nationally by dentistsiv) an increase in wages for apple industry workers.v) an advance in technology of apple planting.2. With proper example, discuss the principle of comparative advantage. What are the differences between the absolute advantage & comparative advantage?。

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2003-2004学年第二学期中级宏观经济学(Macroeconomics考试试题答案(经济试验班021、022Ⅰ.Choose the best answers (2'×101.B2.A3.C4.B5.C6.A7.B8.C9.C 10.DⅡ. Explain the following terms. (20 points1.Endogenous variables: 经济模型中要解释的变量。

Exogenous variables:模型给出作为既定的变量。

2. Menu costs:企业因通货膨胀改变价格的成本。

shoe-leather costs:为减少持有货币的损失而发生的成本。

3. GDP deflator :名义GDP/实际GDP,是相对于基年商品和劳务价格的那一年的商品和劳务价格。

CPI:即消费价格指数,是相对于某个基年一篮子物品与劳务价格的同样一篮子物品与劳务的现期价格。

4. Adaptive expectation :人们根据过去的经验或数据来预测未来。

rational expectation:人们尽可能地利用所有可以获得地信息,包括关于现在政府政策地信息预测未来。

5. Real exchange rate :两国物品的相对价格。

nominal exchange rate:两国通货的相对价格。

Ⅲ.Answer the following questions by drawing or calculating. (10’ ×41.We want to consider the effects of a tax cut when the LM* curve depends on disposable income instead of income: M/P = L[r, Y –T].A tax cut now shifts both the IS* and the LM* curves. Figure 12–22 shows the case of floating exchange rates. The IS* curve shifts to the right, from IS to IS . The LM* curve shifts to the left, however, from LM to LM .We know that real balances M/P are fixed in the short run, while the interest rate is fixed at the level of the world interest rate r*. Disposable income is the only variable that can adjust to bring the money market into equilibrium: hence, the LM* equation determines the level of disposable income. If taxes T fall, then income Y must also fall to keep disposable income fixed. In Figure 12–22, we move from an original equilibrium at point A to a new equilibrium at point B. Income falls by the amount of the tax cut, and the exchange rate appreciates. If there are fixed exchange rates, theIS* curve still shifts to the right; but the initial shift in the LM* curve no longer matters. That is, the upward pressure on the exchange rate causes the central bank to sell dollars and buy foreign exchange; this increases the money supply and shifts the LM* curve to the right, as shown in Figure 12–23. The new equilibrium, at point B, is at the intersection of the new IS* curve, IS , and the horizontal line at the level of the fixed exchange rate. There is no difference between this case and the standard case where money demand depends on income.2. a.将生产函数两边同时除以效率工人,则有:(4.04.06.04.0k L E K L E L E K L E Y y =⎪⎭⎫⎝⎛⨯=⨯⨯=⨯=b .s=0.25 δ=5% n=2% g=3%; 带入经济稳定的条件:38.15.275.01(*84.15.2*6.45.2*1.025.0((3/23/24.03/54.0≈⨯=-=≈==≈==⋅++=⋅y s c k y k kk kg n k f s δc.当g 变为5%时,有: 63.11225*4.31225*12.025.0((3/24.03/54.0≈⎪⎭⎫⎝⎛==≈⎪⎭⎫⎝⎛==⋅++=⋅k y k kk kg n k f s δ 这种变化导致了效率工人的人均资本量减少,效率工人的人均产量下降;但总产出会增加。

Macroeconomics----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Part I IntroductionChapter 1 The Science of Macroeconomics【Mainpoints】1.Exogenous Variables and Endogenous VariablesExample: The total quantity and price level of pizza in a country.Exogenous variables are given in a model. [aggregate income, price of materials]Endogenous variables are what a model explains. [price level and total quantity of pizza]2.Flexible Price and Sticky PriceFlexible price: easy to adjust, in short run.Sticky price: hard to adjust, in long run.===========================================Chapter 2 The Data of Macroeconomics【Mainpoints】1.GDP(1) Real GDP and Nominal GDP, GDP deflator(2) economy's income = economy's expenditure(3) GDP = C + G + I + NX2.CPI(1) CPI measures the price of a basket of goods(2) CPI = ∑P m Q / ∑P n Q(3) difference between GDP deflator and CPI3. The Unemployment Rate(1) Labour Force = Number of Unemployment + Number of Employment(2) Unemployment Rate = Number of Unemployment / Labour Force × 100%---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Part II Classical Theory: The Economy in the Long Run ---- Flexible Price Chapter 3 National Income: Where It Comes From and Where It Goes【Mainpoints】1.Total Production(1) Production Function: Y = F(L,K)(2) constant returns to scale: zY = zF(L,K)2. National Income Distribution(1) Factor Prices ---- Labour:MPL = F(L+1,K) - F(L,K)ΔProfit = ΔRevenue - ΔCost = MPL×P - WIn order to maximize profit, make ΔProfit = 0. So MPL=W/P, Real WageLabour Income = MPL×L(2) Factor Prices ---- CapitalMPK = F(L,K+1) - F(L,K)ΔProfit = ΔRevenue - ΔCost = MPK×P - RIn ordet to maximize profit, make ΔProfit= 0 . So MPK=R/P, Real Rental Price ofCapitalCapital Income = MPK×K3)The Cobb-Douglas Production FunctionLabour Income = MPL×L = (1-α)YCapital Income = MPK×K = αY→F(K,L) = AKαL(1-α) , A measures the productivity of the available technology3.Total Demand1)Consumption:Determined by disposable incomeC=C(Y-T)Marginal Propensity to ConsumeMPC=C(Y-T+1)-C(Y-T)2)Investment:Determined by interest rateI=I(r)When r is high, investors will give upinvestment because cost of loan is higherthan rate of return.3) Government PurchasesG vs T, measures government budget5. Equilibrium (in a closed economy)(1) Market of Goods and ServicesY=C(Y-T)+I(r)+G(2) Market of Loanable FundsS=Y-C(Y-T) - G = I(r)investment is crowded out ===========================================Chapter 4 Money and Inflation【Mainpoints】1.Concept of Money(1) Funtions of Money: 1) Store of Value. Example: You can hold your money and trade itfor goods and services at some time in the future.2) Unit of Account. Example: In store people use money to showprice.3) Medium of Exchage. Example: People use money as tool toexchange goods.(2) Types of Money: 1) Fiat Money. No value, example: Paper Money.2) Commodity Money. With value, example: Gold and Silver.(3) Control of Money: 1) Institution: Central Bank. Example: Deutsche Bundesbank2) Method: Open-Markt Operation. Example: Buy governmentbonds to increase money supply.2.The Quantity Theory of Money(1) Quantity Equation: MV=PT →MV=PYQuantity Theory of Money: MV=PY(2) Real Money Balances: M/P , measured in quantity of goods and services.The Money Demand Function: (M/P)d = L(Y,i) = M/P← Money Supply. Y↑, d↑; i↑,d↓(3) Money and Inflation: ΔM% + ΔV% = ΔP% + ΔY% So M↑, P↑3.Inflation and Interest Rate(1) Fisher Equation: i = r + π===========================================Chapter 5 The Open Economy【Mainpoints】1.International Trade in a Samll Open Economy(1) View of goods and capital flow: NX = Y- (C+G+I)(2) View of capital flow: NX = Y-C-G-I = S-I= S-I(r*)r* is World Interes Rate(3) Trade Policies: 1) Domestic Fiscal Policy, influenceG↑,T↓→S↓→NX↓2) Fiscal Policy Abroad, influenceG e↑, T e↓→S e↓→r*↑→NX↑3) Shift in investment demand. Example: Government provides aninvestment tax credit2.Exchange Rates(1) Nominal Exchange Rates(e) and Real Exchange Rates(ε)Nominal exchange rates are measured in currency. Example: 100 yen / 1 dollarReal exchage rates are measured in goods and services. Example: 2 Japan Car / 1 USA car ε = e × (P/P*) , P* means price level of foreign countries.(2) The Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balance:NX = NX(ε)ε↓, P/P*↓, means domestic goods and servicesare cheaper than abroad. NX↑When NX(ε) = S - I, ε is equilibrium real ex.rate.(3) Trade Policies: 1) Domestic Fiscal Policy:G↑,T↓ → S↓(Expansionary Fiscal Policy)2) Fiscal Policy Abroad:G e↑, T e↓→S e↓→r*↑→I↓3) Shift in investment demand.4) Shift in NX(ε) Example: Protectionist Trade Policies(4) Inflation and nominal exchange rates:e = ε × (P*/P) → Δe%= Δε% + (π* - π)(5) PPP(Purchasing-Power Parity): 1 Dollar can buy the same quantity of wheat in anycountry.===========================================Chapter 6 Unemployment【Mainpoints】1.Natual Rate of Unemployment(1) Concept: The rate of unemployment which the economy get closed to in the long run.(2) Calculation: L-Labour Froce, E-Number of Employed, U-Number of Unemployed, f-rate of job fiding, s-rate of job seperating.L=E+U, fU=sE → U/L=1/(1+f/s)2.Causes for Unemployment(1) Frictional Unemployment:Unemployed people need time to find jobs.e.g. sectoral shift, unemploymetn insurance.(2) Structural Unemployment:Wage Rigidity. Wage is above the equlibrium level.e.g. Minimum-Wage Laws, Unions, Efficiency Wages.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Part III Growth Theory: The Economy in the Very Long Run ---- Solow Growth Model Chapter 7 Economic Growth I: Capital Accumulation and Population GrowthAssumption: Constant Return to Scale【Mainpoints】1.Capital Accumulation(1) Production Function per worker: zY=F(zK,zL)→Y/L=F(K/L,1)→y=f(k),MPK=f(k+1)-f(k)(2) Output and consumption per worker: y=c+i→c=(1-s)y→i=sy→i=sf(k)(3) The Steady State: Capital stock growth Δk = 0Δk=i-δk, δ is depreciation rate→Δk=sf(k)-δk=0→sf(k*)=δk*(4)Golden Rule level of capital: k*gold which maximizes cc=y-i→c=f(k)-sf(k)→c*=f(k*)-δk*→c max:MPK=δ2. Population Growth(at rate of n)(1) The Steady State:Δk=i-k(δ+n)→Δk=sf(k)-k(δ+n)=0→sf(k*)=(δ+n)k*(2) Golden Rule level of capital:k*gold, c=y-i→c max:MPK=δ+nChapter 8 Economic Growth I: Technology, Empirics, and Policy1.Technological Progress in the Solow ModelAssumption: Technology growth is a given exogenous variable g(1) Efficiency of Labour: Y=F(K,EL)(2) The Steady State: Δk=sf(k)-(g+n+δ)k=0→sf(k*)=(g+n+δ)k*(3) Golden Rule level of capital: k*gold , c=y-i→MPK=g+n+δ2.Endogenous Growth TheoryAssupmtion: Technolgy growth is a endogenous function g(μ), capital includes knowledge (1) 2 Sector Model: Y=F[K,(1-μ)EL], ΔE=g(μ)E, ΔK=sY-δK---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Part IV Business Cycle Theory: The Economy in the Short Run ---- Sticky Price Chapter 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations【Key Concepts】Recession: A period of falling output and rising unemployment.Business Cycle: Short-run fluctuations in output and employment.【Mainpoints】1.GDP and unemployment(1) Okun's Law: ΔReal GDP%=3%-2×ΔUnemployment Rate(2) Leading Economic Indicators: Forecasts. Example: Average work time, Index of stock prices, Money Supply....2.Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply( P=P(Y))(1) The Quantity Theory of Money→AD: MV=PY→M/P=(M/P)d=kY(2) AS: SRAS---P=P, LRAS---Y=Y(3) From Short Run to Long Run: M changes AD, Y is unchanged inthe long run, but P in the long run changes. (A→B→C)(4) Shocks to AD and AP:1) Shocks to AD. Example: Credit Card makes V rise.Policy: Reduce the Money Supply.2) Shocks to AP. Example: A drought that destroys crops. Cartel. Union. etc. P↑Policy: Wait! Then price returns original level eventually(But it takes longtime). Or expand AD(But price level will be high in long period of time).===========================================Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I: Building the IS-LM Model (Y-r)【Mainpoints】1.IS Curve(1) Good and Service Market→The Keynesian Cross: Y=C+I+G, PE=AE(2) IS curve:Y=C(Y-T)+I(r)+G 1) r↑→I↓→Y↓ 2) Fiscal Policy: G↑→Y↑→IS→, Governmetn-purchases multiplier, tax multiplier.2.LM Curve(1) Money Market→The Theory of Liquidity Peference: M/ P=L(r), M s=M d(2) LM Curve: M/P=L(r,Y). 1) Y↑,M d↑, r↑ 2)M s↑,r↓,LM←3. The Short-Run Equilibrium=========================================== Chapter 11 Aggregate Demand II: Applying the IS-LM Model (Y-P) 【Mainpoints】1.IS-LM Model as a Theroy of Aggregate Demand(1) Derivation: P↑,(M/P)s↓,r↑,LM↑→Y↓(2) Shift in AD: G,T,M→IS/LM→Y(3) In long run and short run: In long run Y<Y===========================================Chapter 12 The Open Economy Revisited: The Mundell-Fleming Model and the Exchange Rate Regime【Mainpoints】1.Mundell-Fleming Model(1) IS* Curve: Y=C(Y-T)+I(r*)+G+NX(ε) (2) LM* Curve: M/P=L(r*,Y)2.Under Floating Exchange Rates(1)Fiscal Policy:Shift IS*,ineffectual; Monetary Policy:Shift LM*; Trade Policy:Shift NX(ε)→IS* 3.Under Fixed Exchange Rates(1) Theory: Arbitrageur arbitrage so that M changes.(2)Fiscal Policy shifts IS*→LM*; Monetary Policy:Shift LM*, ineffectual; Trade Policy: ShiftNX(ε)→IS*→LM*4. Policy Choice: Impossible Trinity5. Mundell-Fleming Model in Short andLong RunChapter 13 AS and the Short-Run Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment1.Aggregate Supply ModelY=Y+α(P-P e)2.Inflation, Unemployment and Phillips Curve(1)Y=Y+α(P-P e)→P-P-1=P e-P-1+1/α(Y-Y)+v→π=πe+β(μ-μn)+v [Okun's Law] v-supply shock(2) Sacrifice Ratio: π↓1%, GDP ↓ ? %----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Part V Macroeconomic Policy DebateChapter 14 Stabilization Policy1.Inside Lag and Outside Lag(1) Inside lag is the time between economy shock and the policy anction responds. Example: Policy makers need time to recognize a shock and react.(2) Outside lag is the time between a policy action and its influence on the economy. Example: Change in money supply and interest rate.===========================================Chapter 15 Government Debt and Budget Deficits1.The Traditional View of Government Debt(1) In the short run, T↓,C↑,S↓,r↑,I↓,lower steady-state K and a lower level of Y.(2) In the lo ng run, T↓,C↑,IS→,AD↑, finally Y=Y, P is higher.(3) In open economy, T↓,C↑,IS→, ε↑2.The Ricardian View of Government Debt(1) Ricardian Equivalence: Consumers are forward-looking.They think that government will raise tax at some point in the future, in order to afford budget. So they won't change consumption. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Part VI More on the Microeconomics Behind MacroeconomicsChapter 18 Money Supply, Money Demand and the Banking System1.Money Supply(1) Money Supply (M) = Currency (C) + Demand Deposits (D)(2) Reserves: The money that bank receive but don't lend out. Reserve-deposit ratio-rr1) 100% Reserve Banking. 1C→1D, M remains constant.2) Fractional-Reserve Banking. 1C→rrD+(1-rr)C, M increases. And (1-rr)C can be put into another bank, the process of money creation can be continued.(3) Money Supply Model: M=C+D.B(Monetary Base)=C+R [Control by Central Bank]→ M=(cr+1)/(cr+rr)×B=m×B [cr is currency-deposit ratio](4) Monetary Policy Tool: open-market operation, reserve requirements, discout rate[the rate that banks borrow from central bank].2.Money Demand(1) Quantity Theory: (M/P)d=L(i;Y)(2) Portfolio Theory: (M/P)d=L(r s,r b,πe,W) [r s-expected real return on stock, r b-expected real return on bonds, W-real wealth]。

………密………封………线………以………内………答………题………无………效……电子科技大学二零一三至二零一四学年第一学期期中考试经济学II 课程考试题 A 卷（95分钟）考试形式：闭卷考试日期：2013年11月 21 日课程成绩构成：平时 30 分，期中 20 分，实验 0 分，期末 50 分一、判断题（正确的打“√”，错误的打“×”，每小题2分，共20分）（√ ）1．Macroeconomics examines the behavior of economic aggregates. Microeconomics is the foundation of Macroeconomics.（ ×）2．Investment is the change of capital stock.（√ ）3．The slope of the saving curve is positive and increasing in income Y.（√ ）4．In equilibrium, the inventory unplanned is 0.（√ ）5．The basic tools of supply and demand are as central to macroeconomic analysis as they are to microeconomic analysis.（ ×）6．Changes in wealth lead to movements along the consumption function.（ ×）7．If the GDP deflator in 2004 was 150 and the GDP deflator in 2005 was 120, then the inflation rate in 2005 was 25%.（√ ）8．Suppose a small closed economy has GDP of $5 billion, consumption of $3 billion, and government expenditures of $1 billion. Then investment and national saving are both $1 billion.（ ×）9．When economists refer to investment, they mean the purchasing of stocks and bonds and other types of saving.（√ ）10．GDP adds together many different kinds of products into a single measure of the value of economic activity by using market prices.………密………封………线………以………内………答………题………无………效……二、单项选择题（每小题2分，共40分）（ D ）1．Which of the following newspaper headlines is more closely related to what microeconomists study than to what macroeconomists study?A．Unemployment rate rises from 5 percent to 5.5 percent.B．Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent in the third quarter.C．Retail sales at stores show large gains.D．The price of oranges rises after an early frost.（ D ）2．Dead-weight costs of inflation include:A．Informational costs B．Menu costs C．Shoe-leather costs D．All above（ A ）3．Unemployment rate isA．percentage of the labor force that is unemployedB．the fraction of the adult population that …participates‟ in the labor forceC．percentage of labor force that is not employed and not looking for workD．None of the above（ D ）4．In the IS model, endogenous variable(s) is (are)A．consumption B．investment C．saving D．all above variables（ B ）5．If the consumption function is C = 100 + 0.75Y, the MPS isA．100 B．0.25 C．0.75 D．None of the above（ A ）6．The multiplier of transfer payment isA．MPC/(1-MPC ) B．-MPC/(1-MPC ) C．1/(1-MPC ) D．-1/(1-MPC )（ D ）7．Equilibrium occursA．when there is no tendency for change.B．when planned aggregate expenditure is equal to aggregate outputC．when I = S in the good and service market for a two-sector economyD．All above（ A ）8．If the spontaneous consumption decreases, the IS curve willA．shift to left B．shift to right C．be unchanged D．move down………密………封………线………以………内………答………题………无………效……（ B ）9．Which one is commodity money below?A．Token B．Silver C．Fiat D．Legal tender（ A ）10．China‟s nominal GDP in 2012 is about￥A．52 trillion B．60 trillion C．15 trillion D．71.3 trillion（ B ）11．Which of the following changes will decrease investment?A．A doubling of the annual revenues. B．A rise in interest rates.C．An increase in tax rate on net profits D．All above（ D ）12．Money is not income, and money is not wealth. Money is:: A．a means of payment B．a store of valueC．a unit of account D．All of above.（ A ）13．M1, or transactions money is money that can be directly used for transactions. It includes:: A．currency held outside banks B．all personal depositsC．non-checkable deposits D．All above.（ A ）14．The central bank performs important functions, but not including:A．Set the tax rateB．Clearing interbank paymentsC．Regulating the banking systemD．All of above（ B ）15．The IS model shows the relationship betweenA．Y & P B．Y & r C．P & r D．I & S（D ）16．Consider the following three items of spending by the government: (1) the federal government pays a $500 unemployment benefit to an unemployed person; (2) the federal government makes a $2,000 salary payment to a Navy lieutenant; (3) the city of Bozeman, Montana makes a $10,000 payment to ABC Lighting Company for street lights in Bozeman. Which of these payments contributes directly to government purchases in the national income accounts?A．(1) B．(2)C．(1) and (2) D．(2) and (3).（ C ）17．An American soldier stationed in California receives a paycheck from the federal government for………密………封………线………以………内………答………题………无………效……$500, which she uses to purchase a $300 stereo made in Korea by a Korean firm and $200 worth of groceries produced in California. As a result, U.S. GDP increases byA．$200 B．$500 C．$700 D．$1000（ D ）18．When economists talk about growth in the economy, they measure that growth as the A．absolute change in nominal GDP from one period to another.B．percentage change in nominal GDP from one period to another.C．absolute change in real GDP from one period to another.D．percentage change in real GDP from one period to another.（ C ）19．Many things that society values, such as good health, high-quality education, enjoyable recreation opportunities, and desirable moral attributes of the population, are not measured as part of GDP. It follows that A．GDP is not a useful measure of society's welfare.B．GDP is still a useful measure of society's welfare because providing these other attributes is the responsibility of government.C．GDP is still a useful measure of society's welfare because it measures a nation's ability to purchase the inputs that can be used to help produce the things that contribute to welfare.D．GDP is still the best measure of society's welfare because these other values cannot actually be measured. （ B ）20．During a presidential campaign, the incumbent argues that he should be reelected because nominal GDP grew by 12 percent during his 4-year term in office. You know that population grew by 4 percent over the period and that the GDP deflator increased by 6 percent during the past 4 years. You should conclude that real GDP per personA．grew by more than 12 percent. B．grew, but by less than 12 percent. C．was unchanged. D．decreased.三、计算题（共40分）………密………封………线………以………内………答………题………无………效……1.The table below contains data for the country of Wrexington for the year 2006a). How much is the market value of all final goods and services produced within Wrexington in 2006? (1分)The market value of all final goods and services produced within Wrexington in 2009 = GDP = 110b). Gross national product for Wrexington in 2006 is? (1分)GNP= GDP- Income foreigners earn here + Income earned by citizens abroad=100c). Net national product for Wrexington in 2006 is? (1分)NNP = GNP - Losses from depreciation=96d). National income for Wrexington in 2006 is? (2分)………密………封………线………以………内………答………题………无………效……NI = NNP - Indirect business taxes (0.5’) + Business subsidies (0.5’) = 92e). Personal income for Wrexington in 2006 is? (3分)PI = NI - Corporate income taxes (0.5’) - Retained earnings (0.5’) - Social insurance contributions (0.5’) + Interest paid to households by government (0.5’) + Transfer payments to households from government (0.5’) = 91f). Disposable personal income for Wrexington in 2006 is? (2分)DPI = PI - Personal taxes (0.5’) - Nontax payments to government (0.5’) = 562.In a three sector economy, the consumption function is C=150+0.8Y d. The total income isY. The tax is T=200. Planned investment is I=100. Government expenditure is G=200.Disposable income is Y d=Y-T.(共20分)(1)Please calculate the equilibrium Y1450, 2‟, S 100, 1‟and C1150, 2‟. (5分)(2)Compare the tax and the investment, which has stronger effect on total income? Why? (6分)ΔY/ΔT = -MPC/(1-MPC ) = -4 (2’). ΔY/ΔI = 1/[1-MPC] = 5 (2’). Investment has stronger effect (2’).(3)If the real output is 1200, how many is the IU?C= 950, 0.5‟; C+I+G = 1250, 0.5‟; IU = -50, 1‟(2分)(4)If the investment increases to 200, how many will the Y increase?500 (2分)………密………封………线………以………内………答………题………无………效……(5)If the consumption function changes to C=150+0.5Y d, I is still 100, how will theEquilibrium Y-750, 2‟, S 0, 1‟ and C-750, 2‟ change (Compare to Equilibrium Y, S and C in (1))? (5分)………密………封………线………以………内………答………题………无………效……3.In a four-sector economy, there is a peasant planting pineapple, a restaurant, manyconsumers and a government. The peasant produces 10 million pineapples, each sold at $2.6 million go to the restaurant; remaining 4 million go to the consumers. Pays 4.5 millionfor wages, 0.5 million for interest on loan and 2 million taxes. The restaurant sells $30 million meals, pays 4 million for wages, 3 million for ernment provides protection from attacks from other islands. It collects taxes ($5 million from firms, 1 million from consumers) and pays 6 million for wages.Consumers work for the business and government, receive interest, pay taxes.(共10分)(1)Please calculate the GDP of this economy with expenditure (GDP = Consumption +Investment + Government Expenditure + Net Exports = 38 + 0 + 6 + 0 =44, 0.5’ for each number, 0.5’ for calculation of consumption) and income (GDP = Wage Income + After-Tax Profits + Interest Income + Taxes from firms= 14.5 + 24 + 0.5 + 5 = 44, 0.5’ for each number, 0.5’ for calculation of wage and profits )approaches respectively. (6‟) (Hint: List the components of GDP in different approaches. You can earn point for the correct component listing. )(2)Suppose now the peasant produces 13 million pineapples instead of 10 million, but onlysell out 10 million. What is GDP now? (2‟)44 + 2*3 (2’)= 50 (2’)(3)Suppose now the restaurant imports additional 2 million pineapples from other islands at$2 each. What is GDP now? (2‟)44-2*2 (2’) = 40 (2’)………密………封………线………以………内………答………题………无………效……。

名词解释英语macroeconomic policy -回复"Macroeconomic policy"，即宏观经济政策，是指一国政府或经济体通过运用各种财政政策、货币政策以及其他经济手段，对总体经济活动进行干预和管理，以实现经济增长、充分就业、物价稳定和国际收支平衡等宏观经济目标的政策措施体系。

主要包括：
1. 财政政策（Fiscal Policy）：通过调整政府收入（税收）和支出（公共投资、转移支付等）的规模和结构，影响总需求，进而影响经济增长、就业和价格水平。

2. 货币政策（Monetary Policy）：由中央银行执行，主要通过调节货币供应量、利率水平等手段，影响经济中的信贷条件和市场利率，从而影响总需求、通货膨胀和经济增长。

3. 其他政策工具包括汇率政策、产业政策、贸易政策等，这些政策也会对宏观经济运行产生重要影响。

C apital structure choice:macroeconomicconditions andfinancial constraints$Robert A.Korajczyk a,Amnon Levy b,c,*a Kellogg School of Management,Northwestern University,Evanston,IL60208-2001,USAb Haas School of Business,University of California Berkeley,Berkeley,CA94720-1900,USAc Moody’s KMV,San Francisco,CA94111-1016,USAReceived29August2001;accepted21March2002AbstractThis paper provides new evidence of how macroeconomic conditions affect capital structure choice.We modelfirms’target capital structures as a function of macroeconomic conditions andfirm-specific variables.We split our sample based on a measure offinancial constraints. Target leverage is counter-cyclical for the relatively unconstrained sample,but pro-cyclical for the relatively constrained sample.Macroeconomic conditions are significant for issue choice for unconstrainedfirms but less so for constrainedfirms.Our results support the hypothesis that unconstrainedfirms time their issue choice to coincide with periods of favorable macroeconomic conditions,while constrainedfirms do not.r2002Elsevier Science B.V.All rights reserved.JEL classification:G32;G1Keywords:Capital structure;Business cycles;Financial constraints$We thank Susan Chaplinsky,Matthew Clayton,Kent Daniel,Michael Fishman,Chris Hennessy, Laurie Hodrick,Armen Hovakimian,Ravi Jagannathan,Deborah Lucas,Hamid Mehran,Mitchell Petersen,Todd Pulvino,Anna Scherbina,Bill Schwert(the editor),Jeremy Stein,and an anonymous referee for helpful comments.We would also like to thank seminar participants at the AFA Annual Meetings,Columbia/New York University joint seminar,the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Moody’s KMV,the New York University Macro Lunch,and the University of California Berkeley.*C orresponding author.Present address:Moody’s KMV,1620Montgomery Street,Suite140,San Francisco,CA94111-1016,USA.E-mail address:amnon.levy@(A.Levy).0304-405X/02/$-see front matter r2002Elsevier Science B.V.All rights reserved.PII:S0304-405X(02)00249-01.IntroductionCapital structure choice varies over time and across firms.For example,aggregate equity issues vary pro-cyclically and aggregate debt issues vary counter-cyclically for firms that access public financial markets.Meanwhile,firms that exhibit higher degrees of financial constraints do not exhibit these pronounced counter-cyclical debt issue patterns.1In addition,firms are more likely to issue equity following an abnormal increase in their own price of equity (e.g.,Korajczyk,et al.,1990).Such observations suggest that both macroeconomic conditions and firm-specific factors drive variations in financing choices and that these variations differ with the degree of financial market access.In this paper we quantify the relative importance of these factors by performing a variance decomposition for the time variation in financing choices on a sample of firms that is split on a measure of financial constraints.We investigate the role of macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints in determining capital structure choice since these can induce time-series and cross-sectional heterogeneity in firm behavior.Firms facing financial constraints do not choose capital structure in the same manner as unconstrained firms.2Similarly,time variation in macroeconomic conditions,such as changes in the relative pricing of asset classes,can lead a given firm to choose different capital structures at different points in time,other things being equal.This allows us to investigate alternative capital structure theories in light of the effects of financial constraints and macroeconomic conditions.Two important theories of capital structure are the tradeoff theory and the pecking order theory.In the tradeoff theory,the benefits of increased leverage (for example,tax benefits or reductions in agency costs)are weighed against the costs of increased leverage (for example,deadweight bankruptcy costs)in order to determine the optimal amount of leverage.In the pecking order theory,external financing is more expensive for riskier securities (possibly due to informational asymmetries between managers and security holders).Thus,firms prefer to finance first with internal funds,then with debt,and lastly with equity.Our approach is similar to Hovakimian et al.(2001),who look at the relation among firm-specific variables,target leverage,and issue choice.However,we split our sample into two subsets,financially constrained and financially unconstrained.Theoretically,we define financially constrained firms as the set of firms that do not have sufficient cash to undertake investment opportunities and that face severe agency costs when accessing financial markets (we use retention rates and that investment opportunities as proxies).Moreover,we estimate the relation between 1Specifically,Choe et al.(1993)show that aggregate seasoned primary equity issues are pro-cyclical and debt issues are counter-cyclical.Korajczyk et al.(1990)show that aggregate equity issues are positively related with equity market performance.Gertler and Gilchrist (1993)show that aggregate net debt issues (public and private)increase for large firms but remain flat for small firms following recessions associated with a monetary contraction.Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)show that aggregate net short-term debt is more stable over the business cycle for small firms.2None of the firms in our sample are completely shut out of financial markets since they are firms that choose to access public capital markets over the sample period.We use the terms constrained and unconstrained to denote a relative relation.R.A.Korajczyk,A.Levy /Journal of Financial Economics 68(2003)75–10976firms’debt ratio and (1)firm-specific variables and (2)macroeconomic conditions.We use the fitted values of this relation to estimate firms’target capital structures.We then investigate the relation between security issuances/repurchases,the deviation from target leverage,and both firm-specific and macroeconomic variables.Empirically,the relation between firm-specific variables and target leverage is consistent with some elements of both the pecking order theory and the tradeoff theory of capital structure.However,the relation is also inconsistent with some elements of each rger firms and those with more tangible assets tend to have higher leverage.Firms with unique assets tend to have lower leverage.Consistent with the tradeoff theory,firms with large depreciation tax-shields have lower target leverage.Also consistent with the tradeoff theory,deviations from our estimated target leverage explain firms’choice of security issuance.However,the negative relation between operating income and leverage and the negative relation between the macroeconomic variables and leverage seem consistent with a pecking order theory,particularly for unconstrained firms.Fig.1illustrates the systematic peaks in corporate leverage ratios that occur during economic downturns over the last 50years.A tradeoff model would imply pro-cyclical leverage since during expansions (when the equity market is performing well,expected bankruptcy costs are lower,firms are more likely to have taxable income to shield,and firms have more free cash)debt should be more attractive for unconstrained firms (see Jensen and Meckling,1976;Gertler and Hubbard,1993;or Zwiebel,1996).Pulvino (1998)provides evidence that firm health and market performance influence bankruptcy costs for the airline industry.Titman and Wessels (1988)relate expected bankruptcy costs (using asset specificity as a metric)to capital structure.Mackie-Mason(1990)0.250.50.7511952195719621967197219771982198719921997DateD e b t t o A s s e t R a t i o Fig.1.Aggregate nonfinancial corporate debt to asset ratio across NBER expansions (shaded)and contractions (light).Debt to asset ratio is measured as the total credit instruments of nonfinancial corporations measured at book value,divided by the sum of credit market instruments and the market value of equity,as reported in Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,‘‘Flow of Funds Accounts.’’R.A.Korajczyk,A.Levy /Journal of Financial Economics 68(2003)75–10977and Graham (1996)both provide evidence that tax shields impact capital structure choice.Moreover,since these firms seem far from bankruptcy,asset substitution (Jensen,1986)or debt overhang (Myers,1977)are unlikely to be driving the observed patterns.A pecking order model would be consistent with these patterns since firms prefer using internally generated funds to finance investment and have more internal funds during expansions.The fact that our results with firm-specific variables are consistent with elements of both tradeoff and pecking order theories is consistent with previous empirical work that studies cross-sectional target leverage ratios such as Titman and Wessels (1988),Hovakimian et al.(2001),and Fama and French (2002).Our results indicate that,after correcting for firm-specific variables,the macroeconomic variables help explain some of the counter-cyclical leverage patterns for the unconstrained sample.These patterns are consistent with some recent theoretical work (e.g.,Levy,2001)that relates capital structure to macroeconomic conditions.Levy (2001)develops an agency model in which debt aligns managers’interests,which include private benefit extraction,with those of the outside shareholders.In recessions,levered managers’wealth is reduced relative to outside shareholders.This shift in relative wealth exacerbates the agency problem and increases the optimal amount of leverage in order to realign managers’incentives with those of the shareholders.This leads to counter-cyclical leverage for those firms that are not severely constrained.The model provides one motivation for our use of business-cycle variables that proxy for relative aggregate managerial wealth when estimating target leverage.The results add to the credit channel literature that analyzes the relation between debt issues,financial constraints,monetary policy,credit conditions,and the business cycle.The literature,which often uses size or the degree of bank dependance as proxies for the level of financial constraints,generally agrees with the proposition that firms that face greater financial constraints find it difficult to borrow to smooth cash flows following negative shocks to the economy.Gertler and Gilchrist (1993)find that aggregate net debt issues,following recessions associated with a monetary contraction,increase for large firms but remain stable for small firms that rely on private debt.Similarly,Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)show that aggregate net short-term debt issues are less sensitive to the business cycle for small firms.The literature debates whether these patterns are due to the effect of monetary policy on firms’debt issue patterns through the bank lending channel or through the balance sheet channel.Bernanke and Gertler (1995)provide a description of the debate as well as a review of the literature.The bank lending channel theory focuses on the possible effects of monetary policy actions on the supply of loans by depository institutions (e.g.,Kashyap et al.,1993).The balance sheet channel theory stresses the potential impact of an economic slowdown on borrowers’balance sheets.For example,Kiyotaki and Moore (1997)and Suarez and Sussman (1999)develop general equilibrium models where constrained firms (farmers in the Kiyotaki and Moore model)are always up against their borrowing constraints.The pro-cyclical value of collateral,against which they borrow,results in pro-cyclical leverage.Similar to Levy (2001),the Kiyotaki and Moore model predicts that relativeR.A.Korajczyk,A.Levy /Journal of Financial Economics 68(2003)75–10978R.A.Korajczyk,A.Levy/Journal of Financial Economics68(2003)75–10979 aggregate managerial wealth determines optimal leverage.Wefind that our constrained sample exhibits pro-cyclical leverage,which supports the Kiyotaki and Moore model.As demonstrated in Fischer et al.(1989)or Leland(1994,1998),frictions will result in afirm deviating from its target leverage.In a second stage we,therefore, estimate howfirms’security issue choices(debt versus equity)vary with(1)the distance between actual and target leverage,(2)macroeconomic conditions,and(3)firm-specific variables.Macroeconomic andfirm-specific variables are included in this second stage.These variables account for variations in the costs of issuing or repurchasing debt or equity due to adverse selection,for example.These variables also account for variations in the marginal costs and benefits of debt and equity financing that have been shown to perform well in describing issue choice.For example,Mackie-Mason(1990)provides evidence that marginal tax shields can help describe issue choice.Although wefind that security issue and repurchase choice is sensitive to deviations from the target for both samples,it is particularly sensitive in the constrained sample.The unconstrained sample’s issue choice is substantially more sensitive to variations in macroeconomic conditions than the constrained sample, consistent with arguments that unconstrainedfirms can deviate from their target capital structure in order to time their issues to periods when market conditions are most favorable(i.e.,periods when the relative pricing of the security issued is favorable).Wefind that macroeconomic variables are a significant determinant of repurchase choice for our unconstrained sample.As with the target regressions,our firm-specific results are consistent with previous studies.Our issue choice results are consistent with several empirical and theoretical papers that study how aggregate security issues vary across time.These studies,in general,focus on aggregated debt or equity issues,or on equity issues alone,and have not explicitly tested for the role of macroeconomic conditions infinancing choices.(Exceptions are Marsh(1982),who includes a forecast of aggregate debt and equity issues as a measure of‘‘market conditions’’in estimating issue choice,and Bayless and Chaplinsky(1991),who include a measure of equity market performance and the change in the T-bill in estimating issue choices.)This literature focuses on settings similar to the Myers and Majluf(1984)pecking order theory, where insiders know more about the prospects of theirfirms than outsiders. Managers who have current equity owners’interests in mind avoid issuing equity when they believe their shares are underpriced.Therefore,equity issues convey unfavorable news about thefirm’s prospects.Consistent with this theory,there is a substantial negative price reaction to equity issue announcements(Masulis and Korwar,1986)that are less negative following credible releases of information (Korajczyk et al.,1991).Jensen(1986)argues that a free cashflow story where managers can indulge themselves when they are not forced to make interest payments can explain these empirical observations.However,the fact that the average price reaction is the same for purely secondary issues(Korajczyk et al.,1990) is not consistent with the free cashflow story being the sole cause of the price decline. Moreover,debtfinancing has an issue announcement effect that is less negative thanequity issues;this is consistent with its value having a lower sensitivity to information asymmetries (Chaplinsky and Hansen,1993).Lucas and McDonald (1990)extend Myers and Majluf’s (1984)theory to a dynamic setting where managers have private information about their company’s value.They optimally choose to delay equity issues until they have an investment opportunity and their stock price rises to (or above)its true value.Correlated market prices across firms result in equity issues clustering around market peaks.Similar to Korajczyk et al.,(1990),who provide evidence of equity issue clusters following a run-up in the equity market,we find that firms prefer equity over debt financing following such a run-up.Choe et al.(1993)argue that adverse selection costs vary counter-cyclically to explain the general increase in equity issues during expansions.A model with endogenous counter-cyclical adverse selection is derived in Eisfeldt (2001).Bayless and Chaplinsky (1996)argue that ‘‘windows of opportunity’’in which capital can be raised at favorable terms result in observed periods of extreme equity issue volume (or ‘‘hot’’equity markets)as firms seek to exploit these opportunities.Two interpretations of a window of opportunity include (i)a behavioral argument where the market is particularly exuberant over equity issues and (ii)the relative pricing of asset classes (i.e.,debt and equity),due to the severity of adverse selection for example,is such that a large number of firms prefer to issue equity.Empirically,price reactions to equity issue announcements are less negative during these periods.Motivated by the theoretical arguments and existing evidence,we estimate the average recent price reaction to equity issue announcements and find that it helps explain issue choice for the unconstrained sample.Although these descriptions of macroeconomic episodes in which equity issues cluster are useful starting points,they are not completely consistent with the data.For example,during the second expansion of the 1970s,the equity market performed poorly and the average price drop upon an equity issue announcement was relatively large,yet equity issues as a fraction of total outside funding was relatively high.In fact,Bayless and Chaplinsky (1996)classify the period between 1976and 1979as a cold market.The average price reaction to an equity issue announcement was À3.6%during this period,compared with À2.0%during their classified ‘‘normal’’markets.Meanwhile,Choe et al.(1993)show that the dollar amount of equity issues,as a fraction of the sum of equity and straight debt issues for companies listed in on the NYSE,AMEX,and NASDAQ,was 40%between April 1975and January 1980.It was 18%for the entire sample period between January 1971and December 1991.They also show that between January 1971and November 1973the ratio was 35%,despite poor performance in the equity market.Unfortunately,we do not have readily available data regarding price reactions prior to 1974.Our results suggest that this pattern may be due to firms being far from their target leverage ratios because of the unusually high leverage observed for that period (see Fig.1).The rest of this paper is organized as follows.Section 2discusses the data set and empirical specification.Section 3describes our estimation results.Section 4provides checks for robustness.Section 5concludes with directions for future research.R.A.Korajczyk,A.Levy /Journal of Financial Economics 68(2003)75–10980R.A.Korajczyk,A.Levy/Journal of Financial Economics68(2003)75–10981 2.Data and empirical specificationAll series are converted to real values in1980dollars using the consumer price index(CPI)inflation series(Ibbotson Associates,2001).Similar to the procedures used in Hovakimian et al.(2001),we examine the determinants offinancial choices whenfirms make significant changes to their capital structure.In order to be included in our sample,afirm must have either the net value of equity(common and preferred)issued,repurchased,or paid out as a dividend;or the change in the book value of debt(straight and convertible)of at least5%of the book value of assets in the previous quarter.Since the value of preferred stock is rarely reported and convertible debt is never reported in COMPUSTAT at the quarterly frequency,we can disentangle neither net common equity from preferred equity nor convertible debt from straight debt issues and repurchases.Hovakimian et al.(2001)disentangle such issues by using the annual COMPUSTATfiles.Quarterly COMPUSTAT data(Primary/Secondary/Tertiary,Full Coverage,and Research)and monthly Center for Research in Security Prices(CRSP)data from 1984:1to1999:3are used.Our methodology requires afirm to have reported COMPUSTAT data items for eight quarters before,and eight quarters after, changing its capital structure.This methodologyfilters outfirms with unstable financial or operating status whosefinancing decisions are influenced by factors other than those analyzed in our paper.3For example,Asquith et al.(1994)show thatfinancial instability is related to restructuring of assets and liabilities.In addition,Welch(1989,1996)finds evidence thatfirms conduct seasoned ‘‘follow-on’’equity issues in conjunction with their initial public offerings.Since the motivation for such follow-on offerings is likely to be different than the typical seasoned offering,we use onlyfirms for which we have at least48months of CRSP data prior to the event of changing their capital structure.A48month cutoff was chosen by looking at Figure4of Welch(1989)and Table3,Panel C of Welch(1996), which show that the probability of afirm conducting a seasoned issue drops substantially four years after its initial public offering.Consistent withfindings in Welch(1989,1996),the youngfirms’unconditional issue choices are economically and statistically different from those of the olderfirms.Moreover,bothfirm-specific and macroeconomic variables are much less informative in describing capital structure choices for the young sample.Although including youngfirms does not 3As in Hovakimian et al.(2001),we excludefirms-quarters with outlyingfirm-specific values(those with the highest0.5%and,for some variables,lowest0.5%of values)to minimize the influence of extreme values on the analysis.Moreover,since selling,general and administrative expenses,and book assets are used as normalizing variables,they are required to be positive.Outliers are excluded when the market-to-book ratio is greater than19.51or less than0.31;when the average operating income/assets over the previous four quarters are greater than0.35and less thanÀ0.12;when the average selling expense/sales over the previous four quarters is greater than1.18and less than0.019;when accounts receivables/assets are greater than0.74;when the average depreciation/assets over the previous four quarters are greater than 0.042;when the average income taxes/assets over the previous four quarters are greater than0.046and less thanÀ0.016;and when one year excess stock returns are greater than338%and less thanÀ112%.change the qualitative nature of our results,the overall results are noisier since they comprise approximately 20%of the sample.Because of the importance of regulatory factors in capital structure choice for utilities and financial firms,they are excluded from our sample.In total,our sample contains 5,623event quarters with significant capital structure changes.2.1.Financial constraintsGiven the evidence from the credit channel literature that firms with differential access to financial markets have different debt issue patterns,we split our sample into two categories that we will refer to as financially constrained and financially unconstrained.Theoretically,we define a firm as financially constrained if it does not have sufficient cash to undertake investment opportunities and if it faces severe agency costs when accessing financial markets.Empirically,we use a high retention rate combined with the existence of investment opportunities to identify financially constrained firms.Since dividends and security repurchases compete with investment for funds,firms that have investment opportunities and face relatively high costs of external finance should choose to retain net income for investment.Therefore,the specific criteria for a firm-event window to be labeled financially constrained are:(1)the firm does not have a net repurchase of debt or equity and does not pay dividends within the event window,and (2)the firm’s Tobin’s Q,defined as the sum of the market value of equity and the book value of debt,divided by the book value of assets,at the end of the event quarter should be greater than one.A firm-event window is labeled as financially unconstrained if it does not meet these two criteria.Our methodology is similar to that used by Fazzari et al.(1988),who use the level of dividend distributions to categorize firms into groups facing differing levels of financial constraints.However,we also condition on Tobin’s Q to ensure that firms in our constrained sample have investment opportunities and are not financially distressed.A number of alternative definitions of financial constraints have been proposed.For our sample,firms in the most constrained decile,according to the augmented Kaplan and Zingales (1997)measure used in Lamont et al.(2001),are approximately 15%more likely to make a major security repurchase than the firms classified as less constrained.Kashyap et al.(1994)use the existence of a bond rating to categorize unconstrained versus constrained firms.This classifica-tion algorithm would lead to a much larger fraction of our sample being categorized as constrained since only approximately 20%of the sample has a bond rating.In total,we classify 565firm events as financially constrained and 5,059as financially unconstrained.Only eight of the financially constrained firm-event windows have investment grade bonds rated by S&P;four have a rating of BBB,four have a rating of AA,and the rest have speculative grade debt or no rating at all.It is worth noting that although this classification is persistent,firms do switch classification.Approximately one-third of firms that re-enter the sample switch classification.R.A.Korajczyk,A.Levy /Journal of Financial Economics 68(2003)75–10982R.A.Korajczyk,A.Levy/Journal of Financial Economics68(2003)75–10983Several summary statistics for nine quarter event-windows in each class,presented in Table1,suggest that we are in fact proxying forfinancial constraints.As in other studies measuringfinancial constraints(e.g.,Fazzari et al.,1988),our constrained firms are smaller on average.Since one of the requirements is to have a market-to-book ratio greater than one after an issue,it is no surprise that our constrained sample has a substantially higher overall average.It is interesting that the constrained sample has substantially higher capital expenditures(as a fraction of assets),despite having lower average income and approximately the same median income.This suggests that we are capturingfirms with investment opportunities.The constrained sample has a lower debt ratio when measured using market values,but approximately the same average leverage ratio when measured using book values. This is not surprising since book values proxy for tangible assets(that can be used more easily as collateral)and is expected since our sample is stratified on Q.The constrained sample has a higher beta,suggesting that the relative movement in equity values is not driving the difference in leverage patterns across the two samples.4Finally,motivated by papers such as Fazzari et al.(1988),Table1’s second row from the bottom relates the sensitivity of investment to cashflow.We measure cash flow sensitivity by regressing investment(capital expenditures divided by property plant and equipment)on cashflow(net income plus depreciation), lagged Tobin’s Q,and lagged cash as a fraction of assets.Only the cashflow coefficients and standard errors(in parentheses)are presented,along with a test of coefficient equality.In the absence of frictions,cashflows should not influence investment decisions,although there is some debate about the exact nature of the relation betweenfinancial constraints and investment-cashflow sensitivity(e.g.,Fazzari et al.,2000;Kaplan and Zingales,2000;Abel and Eberly,2002).Consistent with thefindings of Fazzari et al.(1988),investment for our constrained sample is sensitive to variations in cashflows,while investment for our unconstrained sample is not sensitive to variations in cash flows.2.2.Empirical specificationWe use bothfirm-specific data and aggregated/macroeconomic data to isolate macroeconomic conditions infirms’financing choices.The procedure is similar to Gertler and Hubbard(1993),who estimate macroeconomic determinants of dividend payments.Variables are lagged one quarter since their public release dates are not immediately known.Similar to Marsh(1982),Bayless and Chaplinsky(1991),and Hovakimian et al.(2001),we assume thatfirms’capital structure choices can be described by the following two equations,LevüMacroT iÀ3aþX i;tÀ3bþf iþq tþfq tþd86tð1Þi;t4To estimate beta,up to60months of CRSP data prior to the change in capital structure are used. When60months are not available,we use the data that are available(at least48months).。