朝鲜半岛重新开战？ - FT中文网视频听写稿

There is been an escalation of tensions today on the Korean peninsula with the North Korean military and the South Korean military triggering artillery blushes. Last count, we have 2 dead and some 20 injured. We just heard from the Reuters that the UN security Council is likely to gather for an emergency meeting in the next couple of days. With me here is James Bleeds, the FT’s diplomatic editor. James, very simple question, are we seeing a resumption of war on the Korean peninsula?Well, this is certainly the most serious incident that happened for a while because for the first time we are seeing brushes being traded from land. You’ve see skirmishes at sea. Of course, of course earlier this year, the North Korea sank a South Korean ship with a lost of more than 40 lives. But this is a more serious one because it’s at land it also come of course, a day after North Korea effectively revealed that it has an uranium enrichment facility which is significantly speeding up its process to create nuclear weapon. So enormous round of tension is now developing clearly between North and South.What do you think is the reactions that we gonna see from the South Koreans here? Well, the () of things in the past, the North Korea does a major kind of incursion and the South shows restraint. One of the main reasons I think why the South does show restraint is that it knows all out the war fair between the two sides being absolutely catastrophe. From the North Korean point of view, they know, if they know anything, they can’t possibly win a kind conventional war against the South. They have about a million under arms but it’s not a strong army, doesn’t have strong access to things like fuel and supplies. It doesn’t have conventional forces. The South would win easily. The South has 30 thousand US troops. The problem for the South is that any victory against the North would be a completely () victory. So the South Korean capital is only 25 kilometers from the demilitarized zone that separates North and South. So the North would the very least be able to do a massive artilary against the Seoul population. The estimates are that about half a million people would die in all-out war against North and South. So the idea is that there could actually being a all-out war would be pretty much unthinkable..What is the North Korea up to here? What is it caused this?I think there are two things that people think are happening, the first is obviously a succession taking place, from Kim Jiongri to Kim joingwoo, in the North, his son. And what is being done is a kind of show of a strength that happening both on the nuclear side and the on conventional military side to sort of underpin that succession with others people possibly in North Korea not want that to happen. The other thing that the North Korea probably wanting to do is to show the US and China that it is still a big play and still do lots of things that they don’t like. They want to lead towards the resumption of the 6-party talks which were abandoned April last year. What they effectively want is to end sanctions, more economic support but ability to retain parts of their nuclear programs. This is to try to underpin that position.You mentioned China. How does China’s react is to appeal calm today so far. But whether they go from here?China is clearly a big play on this. On the one hand, China is by far and way the North Korea’s closest support that have its historical linked back to the regional Korean war in the 1950s when China supported the North. It also has a big trade relationship. China is very concerned in particular about the North regime is not stabilized. It has a 800 miles ofborers. It doesn’t want to see a huge refugee crisis developing if the North would collapse. So it has been very supportive to the Kim Jiongri regime. Nevertheless, China does not want to see unplanned and difficult escalations of that kind the North is doing. And so it may reaction very badly and toughly what the North is doing.James, just briefly, the US potion, how is US gonna react?The US’s fundamental concern is nuclear proliferation. Up till now, it has been very firm, not wanting to deal with North Korea, not wanting the resumption of the 6-party talks. It wants the fullest possible verification of what the North Korea is doing. But ultimately, the ball is on the China’s court. What China does,the UN as you mentioned at the start, UN Security Council. () response is will be absolutely critical in determining whether this escalates or not.Just quickly on Iran, another so called rogue nuclear state. We get the regular report of the IAEA nuclear inspectors today. What’s that gonna show us?The advance brief report suggests that Iran has had quite a number of difficulties with its nuclear program. And suggestion, this is speculation is that the stuxnet virus which people have been talking about earlier this year a kind of cyber war fair worm may have done some damage. If you like, the contrast you got today is that the North Korea crisis is really developing and lots of concerns about their uranium enrichment plans. Conversely, Iran seems to be having more and more problems developing its nuclear facilities. The question is whether we actually see a () towards even more serious problems for Iran.。