赏析版2013年4月经济学人文章（英汉双语对照）汇集
Contents
America’s JOBS Act Still not working (1)
[2013.03.30] Online media 网络媒体 (3)
[2013.03.30] Know your own strength 实力究竟如何，当有自知之明 (5)
Dark matter 寻寻觅觅暗物质 (18)
[2013.02.02] If in doubt, innovate 若质疑，则创新 (22)
[2013.04.06]Inside the cult of Kim 平壤一如往常 (28)
[2013.04.07] Law of the lend 借贷的法则——LIBOR丑闻后续报道 (33)
[2013.04.08]The lady who changed the world 改变世界的女人撒切尔夫人 (36)
[2013.04.13] Sex, drugs and hope 性、药物与希望 (46)
[2013.04.13]The death of inflation 通货膨胀的终结 (50)
[2013.04.13] Abs-olutely fabulous 男性魅力|腹肌，绝对是极好的！ (54)
[2013.04.13] Smoking: Weight watchers 抽烟=减肥 (57)
[2013.04.19] Clean, safe and it drives itself 清洁，安全并且自动驾驶 (59)
[2013.04.20] You’re not welcome 这里不欢迎你们 (64)
[2013.04.20] Horn of scarcity 犀角难再得 (67)
[2013.04.20] Paris, c’est fini 巴黎我们缘尽了 (72)
[2013.04.20] China’s economy: Speed isn’t everything速度并非一切 (74)
[2013.04.27] A continued infrastructure boom: Going underground 大修地铁 (76)
[2013.04.27] Apple: Tim Cook's cash card 库克先生打出现金牌 (79)
[2013.04.27] America and the 2nd world war 美国参加二战为何犹豫不决 (81)
[2013.04.27] Butterflies in America: To marvel at all things 美国的蝴蝶 (86)
America’s JOBS Act Still not working
America’s JOBS Act
Still not working
A law designed to jump-start businesses can’t get off the ground
Mar 30th 2013 | New York |From the print edition
美国就业法案无济于事
——一项法律旨在促进商业却空有其名
ON APRIL 5th 2012 the pitched political battles in Washington, DC, briefly paused as Barack Obama signed a law endorsed by both Republicans and Democrats. The Jump Start Our Business Act—for short, the JOBS Act—was designed to make it easier for small companies to raise equity capital. It would, the president said, increase the ability of companies to go public, increase oversight and transparency, and provide opportunities for “a big, new pool of potential investors ….to go online and invest in entrepreneurs that they believe in.”
2012年4月5日，华盛顿特区进行了一场激烈的政治争论，贝拉克·奥巴马签署了一项受民主党和共和党支持的法律。《商业法案》的问世——就业法案的简称——旨在为小企业融资提供便利。总统说，这项法案会提升公司上市的能力，提高洞察力和透明度，而且会给潜在的投资者提供大的、新的投资组合，让他们上网查找和投资信任的企业家。
Wonderful stuff; then reality set in. Of all the JOBS Act’s provisions, bankers say the one that has been used most enthusiastically by companies is an obscure one enabling them to skirt executive-pay rules. Two other popular provisions allow managers to delay attesting to the quality of a company’s financial controls, and to expand the number of institutional shareholders a company can have before needing to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Both reduce costs, a virtue, but neither is an obvious boost to transparency or to the workings of America’s public markets.
多么美好的设想；然而现实却未必如此。银行家们表示，对于就业法案的所有规定，公司最爱用的是使他们避开薪酬规则的一个模糊规定。另外两个流行的规定允许经理推迟发布公司财务控制质量，和扩大一家公司在美国证监会（SEC）注册之前的股东的数量。这两项都可以降低成本，这是一种美德，但是没有一项可以明显提高市场透明度或者促进美国公开市场的运行。
The most significant bits of the act are bottled up at the SEC, which is responsible for
transforming laws into rules that can actually be implemented. The SEC is swamped with rule-writing duties: the JOBS Act adds to an in-tray already bulging after the passage of the Dodd-Frank act in 2010. The SEC says only that: “The commission and staff are working hard to write the rules as soon as possible with the emphasis on getting them right.” The implication, presumably, is that working at a faster pace would get them wrong.
最重要的比特的法案是瓶装在美国证券交易委员会,负责转换成规则的法律,可以真正实现。美国证交会是淹没在制定职责:该法案增加了一个公文格已经膨胀后的通过2010年多德-弗兰克法案。SEC说,只是说:“欧盟委员会和员工正在努力写规则尽快用强调让他们正确。”言下之意,大概是,工作速度快会让他们错了。
该法案最重要的环节被美国证监会抑制了，美国证监会有责任把法律变成可以实施的规定。SEC淹没在制定规则职责中：就业法案比2010年修订后的多德—弗兰克法案还多一个公文格。SEC只是说：“证监会及其员工努力地制定规则，并尽可能地保证规则的正确性。”言下之意大概就是，欲速则不达。
The delays to the act also reflect a debate within the SEC about the best way to structure securities markets and regulation. The thrust of the JOBS Act is to enable issuers, and the banks supporting them, to provide investors with more of some kinds of information (research reports and promotional materials) and less of other kinds (historical accounting data). America’s securities laws often work the opposite way, requiring lots of accounting data but banning other, more impressionistic information.
这项法案的推迟也反映了SEC监管证券市场最佳的方式，就业法案的主旨是保护证券发行者，让银行支持他们给投资者提供多样化的信息（研究报告和营销材料），以及减少一些其他方面的信息（历史财务数据）。美国证券法经常适得其反，要求一堆会计数据但是又禁止一些给人深刻印象的信息。
The contradiction is particularly evident in the symbolic heart of the JOBS Act, the provision allowing the use of online media for “crowdfunding” small projects. This would enable an entity to raise small amounts of equity directly from large numbers of people. It would, in theory, be a cheap way to launch a novel idea. More broadly, it would expand the opportunity for even the smallest investor to make equity investments in start-up firms. 显而易见的矛盾在象征性的就业法案中体现的淋漓尽致。该法案规定允许使用网络媒体为小项目“集资”，这保证了企业从大量的人中筹集少量的资金。理论上来说，是以低成本推出新想法。更广泛地说，将扩大投资机会，即使是最小的投资者对创业公司进行股权投资。Isn’t that a good thing? Although the barriers that have prevented ordinary retail investors from receiving information about smaller firms seem unfair to many, a large constituency defends them. Mary Shapiro, an Obama appointee who resigned in November as chairman of the SEC, felt the JOBS Act “would eliminate important protections for investors”; she was particularly critical of the crowdfunding provisions. Internal e-mails made available after congressional requests suggest she may have helped derail rule making in this area.
那不是一件好事吗?尽管，阻止普通散户投资者从小公司接受信息的障碍对许多人来说是不公平的，但是一大批人会保护他们。玛丽·夏皮罗——奥巴马任命的SEC的主席在11月份辞职了，她认为就业法案“将消除对投资者的重要保护”；她强烈抨击有关群众集资的规定。内部电子邮件在国会请求之后成为可能，暗示她可能推动了这一领域规则的制定。Whether Mary Jo White, the woman nominated to complete Ms Shapiro’s term, takes the same view is unknown. Her background is as a federal prosecutor and a private attorney, not in facilitating capital formation. It is thought that some of the act’s essential rules may begin emerging from the SEC by the end of April, but even then arguments are inevitable and genuine clarity unlikely.
玛丽·乔·怀特提名完成夏皮罗女士的建议，但是他们是否有着一致的观点是未知的。她的背景是联邦检察官和私人律师，而非促进资本形成。人们认为SEC可能早4月底开始实施该法案的核心条款，但是即使这样争论也是不可避免的，纯粹地清晰也不可能。
All of which might suggest the general sluggishness in public offerings that prompted the initial passage of the act will be around for years. The past 12 months have not exactly seen a burst of capital-raising by smaller firms (see chart).
所有的这些可能暗示企业公开上市的普遍疲软，这促使该法案的初步通过需要好多年。在过去的一年也并没有看到小公司的资本募集有着强劲的回升（如图所示）。
But bankers say the pipeline for future public offerings is as good as it has been in the past five years and getting fatter. That has nothing to do with the JOBS Act and everything to do with low recent share-price volatility and the mountain of cash sitting in banks and money-market funds at no interest that is desperate for a return. Provisions in the JOBS Act that might discourage investors, such as lighter requirements for financial data, are being ignored. To some degree, then, the market is regulating itself. There is money to be made, and although better laws would be good, that is enough to spark a bit of dynamism.
但是银行家们表示，未来公开发行的途径会跟过去五年一样的好，并且会更宽。但这与就业法案无关，一切与近期股价小的波动、银行堆积如山的现金和货币市场基金没有兴趣相关的是他们对资产回报的绝望。就业法案的规定可能不利于投资者，比如对财务数据更低的要求被忽略了。那么，在某种程度上，市场是可以自我调节的。有钱可赚，尽管更好的法律是件好事，但是那足以引发市场的活力。
译者：筱草
[2013.03.30] Online media 网络媒体
【导语】：3月25日，雅虎以3000万美元的高价收购英国青少年尼克?戴洛席欧开发的Summly软件，使他成为当今世界最年轻的富豪。
Online media网络媒体
You’ll never work at home
你再也不会在家里工作了
Yahoo buys a teenager’s start-up
雅虎收购英国青少年的新创企业
Mar 30th 2013 |From the print edition
When I’m 18, I’ll buy champagne
等我到了18岁，就买瓶香槟来庆祝
BIG companies swallow little ones every day. So the purchase on March 25th by Yahoo (annual revenue, $5 billion) of Summly, a British start-up (annual revenue, nil), for a reported $30m would normally merit merely a shrug of the shoulders and some muttering about the curious economics of the internet.
每天都会有大公司收购小公司。因此，3月25日，当雅虎公司（年收入50亿美元）花费3000万美元购买一个英国青少年Summly新创企业（年收入为零）时，人们不过就是耸耸肩，心里嘀咕着：网络经济真奇怪。
The deal is worth noting, though, for two reasons. One is that Summly’s founder, Nick d’Aloisio, is only 17: this summer he will be sitting his exams like other teenagers. He created an iPhone app to summarise articles in 300-400 words, ideal for the smartphone-user wondering what he should bother reading.
然而，这笔交易之所以值得一提，原因有二。首先，Summly的开发者尼克?戴洛席欧（Nick d’Aloisio）才十七岁，这个夏天他和同龄人一样将迎来考试。他开发的一款苹果手机应用可以将文章精简为300-400字，对于成天不知道读什么好的智能机用户来说，再完美不过了。
Li Ka-shing, a Hong Kong telecoms tycoon, invested money in the venture, having got wind of an early version of the app after tech blogs wrote about it, Mr d’Aloisio says. Actors (Ashton Kutcher, Stephen Fry), artists (Yoko Ono) and entrepreneurs (Mark Pincus, co-founder and boss of Zynga, a maker of games) have also chipped in, taking the sum outsiders invested in Summly to $1.5m. Mr d’Aloisio says that he remained the largest shareholder.
戴洛席欧表示，当香港电信巨头李嘉诚看见了技术博客中对Summly早期版本的描述，就对其进行了投资。加入投资行列的还有一些演员（艾什顿?库奇及斯蒂芬?弗雷）、艺术家（小野洋子）和企业家（游戏制造商星佳的创始人之一马克?平克斯），这样一来，外部人员对Summely的投资总额就达到了150万美元。戴洛席欧说他自己仍然是最大的股东。
The second reason is that Summly is just the latest of half a dozen start-ups snapped up by Yahoo in as many months. The internet company has also bought Stamped, Alike and Jybe,
which built apps for personalised recommendations of, among other things, books, food and music; OnTheAir, a video-chat company; and Snip.it, which created an app for curating and sharing articles.
其次，雅虎六个月来抢购了六个新兴公司，Summly不过是其中最新的一个。这家互联网公司还收购了Stamped、Alike和Jybe，Jybe开发的应用能为用户提供个性化的书籍、食品和音乐推荐，剩下的两个分别是视频聊天公司OnTheAir和Snip.it，后者开发了一个管理、分享文章的应用。
Marissa Mayer, Yahoo’s boss since July, says she is determined to make the company a stronger force on smartphones and tablets. Yahoo was born on the desktop, but unlike Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook, points out Thomas Husson of Forrester, a research firm, it lacks a mobile platform, such as an operating system or social network, through which to provide its content. Yahoo, says Mr Husson, “will have to go through the various platforms to maximise reach”.
去年七月上任的雅虎首席执行官玛丽莎?梅耶尔表示，她决心将雅虎打造成为智能机和平板电脑领域中的一支劲旅。研究公司弗雷斯特的托马斯?哈森（Thomas Husson）指出，雅虎兴起于台式机时代，但不同于苹果、谷歌、亚马逊和脸谱网，它缺乏一个能够展示其内容的移动平台，比如一个操作系统或社交网络。哈森表示雅虎“必须通过不同的平台来使自己的触角伸到最广”。
On mobile devices, thinks Mr Husson, personalised content will be especially attractive. The companies bought by Yahoo have all been trying to provide exactly that. Ms Mayer, who has also spruced up Yahoo’s news and e-mail apps in recent months, has neither time nor money to spare. Had she waited until Mr d’Aloisio left school, it might have been too late.
哈森认为，个性化服务如果放在移动设备上，会特别有吸引力。而雅虎所收购的这些公司一直努力提供的恰恰正是这些。最近几个月，梅耶尔也整顿了雅虎的新闻和电子邮件应用。她没有多余时间，也没有多余资金。如果她要等到戴洛席欧毕业再收购，那时可能就太晚了。译者：小本子
[2013.03.30] Know your own strength 实力究竟如何，当有自知之明
India as a great power
印度自诩军事强国
Know your own strength
实力究竟如何，当有自知之明
India is poised to become one of the four largest military powers in the world
by the end of the decade. It needs to think about what that means
印度准备在本世纪头十年末成为世界第四军事强国，但它需要考虑是否名副其实。
Mar 30th 2013 | DELHI |From the print edition
《经济学人》杂志文章 | 2013年3月30日写于德里
UNLIKE many other Asian countries—and in stark contrast to neighbouring Pakistan—India has never been run by its generals. The upper ranks of the powerful civil service of the colonial Raj were largely Hindu, while Muslims were disproportionately represented in the army. On gaining independence the Indian political elite, which had a strong pacifist bent, was determined to keep the generals in their place. In this it has happily succeeded.
与许多亚洲国家不同的是，印度未曾有过军人统治的经历，这一点与邻国巴基斯坦形成了鲜明的对照。在英国殖民统治时期，印度重要行政部门的高层大都是印度教徒。而在军队中，与穆斯林士兵的人数相比，得到提升的穆斯林军官人数要远超其他族群。印度独立后，有着强烈和平主义倾向的政治精英们决定保留军人不参政的传统。这个体制被欣然传承了下来。
But there have been costs. One is that India exhibits a striking lack of what might be called a strategic culture. It has fought a number of limited wars—one with China, which it lost, and several with Pakistan, which it mostly won, if not always convincingly—and it faces a range of threats, including jihadist terrorism and a persistent Maoist insurgency. Yet its political class shows little sign of knowing or caring how the country’s military clout should be deployed.
但这个体制也有其弊端。其后果之一就是印度严重缺失所谓的战略文化。印度曾经历过几场有限的战争（一场与中国，输了；有几场与巴基斯坦，虽然大多赢了，但并不总是让人信服），
而且还面临着一系列的威胁，包括伊斯兰恐怖主义和一场长期坚持的毛主义叛乱。然而没有迹象表明，印度政界懂得或关心如何使用本国的军事实力。
That clout is growing fast. For the past five years India has been the world’s largest importer of weapons (see chart). A deal for $12 billion or more to buy 126 Rafale fighters from France is slowly drawing towards completion. India has more active military personnel than any Asian country other than China, and its defence budget has risen to $46.8 billion. Today it is the world’s seventh-largest military spender; IHS Jane’s, a consultancy, reckons that by 2020 it will have overtaken Japan, France and Britain to come in fourth. It has a nuclear stockpile of 80 or more warheads to which it could easily add more, and ballistic missiles that can deliver some of them to any point in Pakistan. It has recently tested a missile with a range of 5,000km (3,100 miles), which would reach most of China.
但印度的军事实力正在迅速增长。在过去的5年里，印度是世界上最大的武器进口国（见图表）。印度与法国签定了耗资120多亿美元，购买126架“阵风”战斗机的合同。尽管这项合同的实施进展缓慢，但也已经接近完成。印度现役军人的数量是除中国以外亚洲国家中最多的，其国防预算已经增至468亿美元。目前印度的军事支出位列全球第七。据简氏信息集团估计，到2020年印度的军事支出将超过日本、法国和英国，成为全球老四。印度的核弹头总数已达80枚或更多，而且可以轻松生产出更多的核弹头。印度的弹道导弹可以携带其中的部分核弹头打到巴基斯坦的任何地方。印度最近还试射了射程达5000公里（3100英里）的弹道导弹，这型导弹的射程可以覆盖中国大部分国土。
Which way to face?
印度将向何方前行？
Apart from the always-vocal press and New Delhi’s lively think-tanks, India and its leaders show little interest in military or strategic issues. Strategic defence reviews like those that take place in America, Britain and France, informed by serving officers and civil servants but led by politicians, are unknown in India. The armed forces regard the Ministry of Defence as woefully ignorant on military matters, with few of the skills needed to provide support in areas such as logistics and procurement (they also resent its control over senior promotions). Civil servants pass through the ministry rather than making careers there. The Ministry of External Affairs, which should be crucial to informing the country’s strategic vision, is puny. Singapore, with a population of 5m, has a foreign service about the same size as India’s. China’s is eight times larger.
除了对此津津乐道的印度媒体和活跃的印度智囊机构，印度政府及国家领导人对军事与战略问题丝毫不感兴趣。在美国、英国与法国，由政治领袖们牵头，军队与政府部门共同编纂，定期颁布国家的战略防务评估报告。但印度从来没有推出过类似的防务报告。印度的海陆空三军都认为国防部的官员们不仅极度忽视军事事务，而且在后勤保障与军事采购方面缺乏必要的技巧与能力。（他们对国防部控制着高级军官的晋升也满是怨气）。国防部的文官们换了一茬又一茬，他们并不（像军人一样）终身从事这种职业。外交部在国家战略计划的制定方面本应起到关键作用，但却人手严重不足。新加坡虽然只有500万人口，但在外交部供职的人数与印度相当。而中国外交部的人数是印度的8倍。
The main threats facing India are clear: an unstable, fading but dangerous Pakistan; a swaggering and intimidating China. One invokes feelings of superiority close to contempt, the other inferiority and envy. In terms of India’s regional status and future prospects as a “great power”, China matters most; but the vexatious relationship with Pakistan still dominates military thinking.
印度的主要敌手明摆着：一个是政局动荡、经济衰落的巴基斯坦，但它是一个危险的敌手；另一个是趾高气扬、耀武扬威的中国。一个敌手让印度产生了一种几近蔑视的高傲感觉；而另一个敌手则让印度感到自卑和妒忌。就印度在本区域的地位和成为“军事强国”的远景而言，中国的影响最大；但印巴间的麻烦关系使印度的军事战略主要还是针对巴基斯坦。
A recent attempt to thaw relations between the two countries is having some success. But tension along the “line of control” that separates the two sides in the absence of an agreed border in Kashmir can flare up at any time. To complicate things, China and Pakistan are close, and China is not above encouraging its grateful ally to be a thorn in India’s side. Pakistan also uses jihadist terrorists to conduct a proxy war against India “under its nuclear umbrella”, as exasperated Indians put it. The attack on India’s parliament in 2001 by Jaish-e-Mohammed, a terrorist group with close links to Pakistan’s intelligence service, brought the two countries to the brink of war. The memory of the 2008 commando raid on Mumbai by Lashkar-e-Taiba, another terrorist organisation, is still raw.
印巴两国最近试图缓和紧张关系，并取得了一些成功。但两国在克什米尔的划界问题上始终
无法达成一致，分割两国的只有一条“实际控制线”，沿这条边界的冲突随时可能爆发。使问题更加复杂的是，中巴关系紧密，中国很可能会鼓励这个心怀感激的盟友成为扎在印度背上的一根芒刺。用印度人愤怒的话语来描述就是：巴基斯坦也在利用伊斯兰恐怖分子，在其“核保护伞”的庇护下对印度发动了一场代理人战争。2001年，一个叫做穆罕默德军（Jaish-e-Mohammed）的恐怖组织对印度国会发动了袭击，该组织与巴情报部门关系密切。这一事件使两国处于战争边缘。2008年由另一个恐怖组织虔诚军（Lashkar-e-Taiba）对孟买发动的恐怖袭击事件让人们至今还记忆犹新。
Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities are a constant concern. Its arsenal of warheads, developed with Chinese assistance, is at least as large as India’s and probably larger. It has missiles of mainly Chinese design that can reach most Indian cities and, unlike India, it does not have a “no first use” policy. Indeed, to offset the growing superiority of India’s conventional forces, it is developing nuclear weapons for the battlefield that may be placed under the control of commanders in the field.
巴基斯坦的核能力一直受到印度的密切关注。在中国的帮助下巴基斯坦研制出各型核弹，其核武库的规模至少与印度相当，或许更大一些。巴基斯坦的导弹大多是中国设计的，其射程可以覆盖大部分印度城市。与印度不同的是，巴基斯坦没有“不首先使用核武器”的政策。为了抵消印度在常规力量上不断增长的优势，巴基斯坦甚至正在研发战场级的核武器。这种核武的使用也许是交由战地指挥官控制。
Much bigger and richer, India has tended to win its wars with Pakistan. Its plans for doing so again, if it feels provoked, are worrying. For much of the past decade the army has been working on a doctrine known as “Cold Start” that would see rapid armoured thrusts into Pakistan with close air support. The idea is to inflict damage on Pakistan’s forces at a mere 72 hours’ notice, seizing territory quickly enough not to incur a nuclear response. At a tactical level, this assumes a capacity for high-tech combined-arms warfare that India may not possess. At the strategic level it supposes that Pakistan will hesitate before unleashing nukes, and it sits ill with the Indian tradition of strategic restraint. Civilian officials and politicians unconvincingly deny that Cold Start even exists.
与巴基斯坦相比，印度是人口众多，幅员辽阔，经济也相对发达，在与巴基斯坦的历次战争中印度都是赢家。如果印度感到受到了挑畔，就会再次打响印巴之战，并计划赢得这场战争。
但下次战争的结果是否如其所愿很难预料。在过去十年的大部分年份，印度陆军都是在“冷启动”作战计划指导下进行运作的。按照这个计划，（一旦战争爆发）印军装甲部队即在近距离空中支援下快速插入巴基斯坦纵深。其目标是在战争开始后的72小时内即给予巴军重大打击，迅速占领大片巴国领土，使巴基斯坦来不及使用核武器。从战术层面上讲，这需要高科技的多兵种联合作战，而印军可能还不具有这种能力。从战略层面讲，这种作战理论假定巴基斯坦在使用核武前会犹豫不决，而且它与印度传统的防御型战略相左。印度的政府官员和政治家们都矢口否认印度有一个“冷启动”作战计划，但难以令人信服。
Bharat Karnad of the Centre for Policy Research, a think-tank, believes Pakistan’s main danger to India is as a failed state, not a military adversary. He sees Cold Start as a “blind alley” which wastes military and financial resources that should be used to deter the “proto-hegemon”, China. Others agree. In 2009 A.K. Antony, the defence minister, told the armed forces that they should consider China rather than Pakistan the main threat to India’s security and deploy themselves accordingly. But not much happened. Mr Karnad sees feeble civilian strategic direction combining with the army’s innate conservatism to stop India doing what it needs to.
巴拉特?卡纳德（Bharat Karnad）是政策研究中心（Centre for Policy Research）的研究人员。他认为巴基斯坦对印度构成的主要威胁并非是其军事实力，而是巴国是一个失败国家。他认为“冷启动”计划是走进了死胡同，根本就行不通。该计划会把本该用在遏制中国这个主要敌手上的军事和财政资源浪费掉。其它人也赞同这种观点。2009年，印度国防部长安东尼（A.K. Antony）告戒武装部队，应该视中国为印度的主要威胁，而不是巴基斯坦，并以此为原则配置军事力量。但说归说，实际上并没有什么大的变化。卡纳德认为，政府的战略方针模糊不清加上军队内部一惯的保守作风，这使印度在该做的事情上无所作为。
The “line of actual control” between China and India in Arunachal Pradesh, which the Chinese refer to as South Tibet, is not as tense as the one in Kashmir. Talks between the two countries aimed at resolving the border issue have been going on for ten years and 15 rounds. In official statements both sides stress that the dispute does not preclude partnership in pursuit of other goals.
中印两国在阿鲁纳恰尔邦（Arunachal Pradesh，中国称藏南地区）的“实际控制线”上的紧张状况要远低于克什米尔地区的“实际控制线”。两国为解决边境问题已经进行了长达10年之久的15轮谈判。在官方声明中双方都强调，边界争议不会妨碍两国在追求其他目标上建立伙伴关系。
But it is hard to ignore the pace of military investment on the Chinese side of the line. Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies points to the construction of new railways, 58,000km of all-weather roads, five air bases, supply hubs and communication posts. China would be able to strike with power and speed if it decided to seize the Indian-controlled territory which it claims as its own, says Mr Karnad. He thinks the Indian army, habituated to “passive-reactive” planning when it comes to the Chinese, has deprived itself of the means to mount a counter-offensive.
但沿这条控制线中国一侧的军事投资规模让人很难视而不见。地面战争研究中心的格米特?坎瓦尔（Gurmeet Kanwal）准将一处处地指出了中国境内新建的铁路、58000公里长的全天候公路、五个空军基地、物资供应中心和通讯站。卡纳德说，假如中国决定夺取它认为属于自己的印控地区，中国能够实施快速而猛烈地打击行动。他认为到了要对付中国人时，印度陆军就习惯于采用“被动反应”计划了，已经失去了发动一场反攻作战的能力。
Unable to match Chinese might on land, an alternative could be to respond at sea. Such a riposte was floated in a semi-official strategy document called “Nonalignment 2.0”, promoted last year by some former national security advisers and blessed by the current one, Shivshankar Menon. India’s naval advantage might allow it, for example, to impede oil
traffic heading for China through the Malacca Strait.
既然在陆地上无法与中国匹敌，那么就在海洋上做出回击。这种反击策略在一份名为“不结盟2.0”的半官方文件中首次出现，去年得到了一些前国家安全顾问的推崇，现在又被现任国家安全顾问希夫香卡尔?梅农（Shivshankar Menon）看中。印度海军所具有的有利条件也许使它能够实施这项计划。例如，印度海军或许能够切断经马六甲海峡到达中国的海上石油运输通道。
China and India are both rapidly developing their navies from coastal defence forces into instruments that can project power further afield; within this decade, they expect to have three operational carrier groups each. Some Indian strategists believe that, as China extends its reach into the Indian Ocean to safeguard its access to natural resources, the countries’ navies are as likely to clash as their armies.
中国与印度都在快速地扩张海军力量，使其海军从近岸防御力量发展到能向更远的地方投送武力。两国在七年之内都有望各自拥有三支航母舰队。印度的一些战略分析家们认为，当中国将触角深入到印度洋，以保护其获取自然资源的运输通道时，两国海军如同陆军一样，冲突很可能无法避免。
Two if by sea
海上威胁
An ocean needs a navy
控制印度洋需要建设一支强大的海军
China’s navy is expanding at a clip that India cannot match—by 2020 it is expected to have 73 major warships and 78 submarines, 12 of them nuclear—but India’s sailors are highly competent. They have been operating an aircraft-carrier since the 1960s, whereas China is
only now getting into the game. India fears China’s development of facilities at ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar—a so-called “string of pearls” around the ocean that bears India’s name; Mr Antony called the announcement in February that a Chinese company would run the Pakistani port of Gwadar a “matter of concern”. China sees a threat in India’s developing naval relationships with Vietnam, South Korea, Japan and, most of all, America. India now conducts more naval exercises with America than with any other country.
中国海军扩张的速度远远超过了印度。到2020年，中国海军有望拥有73艘主力战舰和78艘潜艇，其中12艘为核动力潜艇。但印度海军官兵的素质更胜一筹。自上世纪60年代始，印度海军就一直有一艘在用航空母舰，而中国海军最近才刚刚踏进航母俱乐部的门槛。印度对中国在巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡、孟加拉和缅甸等国建设港口设施，在以印度为名字的这个大洋中构成一个所谓的“珍珠链”感到忧虑。安东尼称今年2月宣布的一家中国公司将接管巴基斯坦的瓜达尔港一事“令人关切”。而中国视印度与越南、韩国、日本，特别是与美国之间发展海军关系为一种威胁。目前印度与美国举行的海军联合军演多于印度与其它任何国家联合举行的海上军演。
India’s navy has experience, geography and some powerful friends on its side. However, it is still the poor relation to India’s other armed services, with only 19% of the defence budget compared with 25% for the air force and 50% for the army.
与中国相比，印度海军拥有经验、地理位置和一些强大的友邦站在印度一边等有利条件。然而印度海军与其它军种相比仍然是个小老弟。印度国防预算中的海军支出只占19%，而空军与陆军的支出分别为25%与50%。
The air force also receives the lion’s share of the capital-equipment budget—double the amount given to the navy. It is buying the Rafales from France and upgrading its older, mainly Russian, fighters with new weapons and radars. A joint venture between Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Russia’s Sukhoi is developing a “fifth generation” strike fighter to rival America’s F-35. As well as indulging its pilots’ need for speed, though, the air force is placing a new emphasis on “enablers”. It is negotiating the purchase of six Airbus A330 military tankers and five new airborne early-warning and control aircraft. It has also addressed weaknesses in heavy lift by buying ten giant Boeing C-17 transports, with the prospect of more to come. Less clear is the priority the air force gives to the army’s requirements for close air support over its more traditional role of air defence, particularly after losing a squabble over who operates combat helicopters.
印度空军在装备采购预算中也占据了最大的份额，其总额是印度海军的两倍。印度空军正在从法国采购“阵风”战斗机，用新式武器和雷达升级改造其陈旧的战斗机。这些战机大都来自俄罗斯。一家由印度斯坦航空有限公司（HAL）与俄罗斯苏霍伊公司共同投资的企业正在研发第五代战斗攻击机，以同美国的F-35进行竞争。该机除了要满足印度空军的飞行员们对飞行速度的苛刻要求外，印度空军新近强调该机要能够满足“多种作战任务的需求”。印度空军还正在谈判购买6架A330军用加油机和5架新式空基早期预警与控制飞机。印度空军还购置了10架波音C-17巨型运输机，弥补了它在重型空运能力方面的不足。未来可能还要
购买更多这类运输机。空军是否会一改其传统的防空角色，优先考虑陆军的要求，为其提供近距离空中支援？这个问题的答案目前尚不明了。尤其是在与陆军争夺武装直升机的控制权失败后，答案就更不明确了。
With the army training for a blitzkrieg against Pakistan and the navy preparing to confront Chinese blue-water adventurism, it is easy to get the impression that each service is planning for its own war without much thought to the requirements of the other two. Lip-service is paid to co-operation in planning, doctrine and operations, but this “jointness” is mostly aspirational. India lacks a chief of the defence staff of the kind most countries have. The government, ever-suspicious of the armed forces, appears not to want a single point of military advice. Nor do the service chiefs, jealous of their own autonomy.
陆军在进行攻入巴基斯坦的闪电战训练，而海军则在准备应对中国的蓝水冒险，这很容易给人们留下这样一个印象：海陆空三军都在谋划自己的战争，而不大顾及其它两个军种的需求。印军在军事计划、军事学说与军事指挥中都堂而皇之地提到了“联合作战”，但大都是些空头支票，很少兑现。印度没有大多数国家都设置的参谋长联席会议主席这类职位。印度政府总是对武装部队不放心，似乎有意不设置这样一个“单点顾问”式的职位，避免军队的大权由一人掌控。陆海空三军的参谋长们也不想有这样一位上司，担心自己军种的自治权受到削弱。
The absence of a strategic culture and the distrust between civilian-run ministries and the armed forces has undermined military effectiveness in another way—by contributing to a procurement system even more dysfunctional than those of other countries. The defence industrial sector, dominated by the sprawling Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), remains stuck in state control and the country’s protectionist past. According to a recent defence-ministry audit, only 29% of the products developed by the DRDO in the past 17 years have entered service with the armed forces. The organisation is a byword for late-arriving and expensive flops.
战略文化的缺失加上文官控制的政府各部与军队之间的猜疑用另外一种方式破坏了印军的作战效能：如此产生的一个武器装备采购系统较之其它国家更加功能失调。印度的国防工业（主要由规模庞大但效率低下的国防研究与发展组织所垄断）仍然受国家控制，依赖印度以往采取的贸易保护政策的庇护。根据印度国防部最新审计的结果，在过去17年里国防研发组织研发的产品只有29%被军队使用。该组织成了姗姗来迟与花费高昂但结果却惨败的代名词。
The cost of developing a heavy tank, the Arjun, exceeded the original estimates by 20 times. But according to Ajai Shukla, a former officer who now writes on defence for the Business Standard, the army wants to stick with its elderly Russian T-72s and newer T-90s, fearing that the Arjun, as well as being overweight, may be unreliable. A programme to build a light combat aircraft to replace the Mirages and MiG-21s of an earlier generation started more than quarter of a century ago. But the Tejas aircraft that resulted has still not entered service.
重型坦克“阿琼”的研发费用超出了预计的20倍。阿贾?夏卡拉（Ajai Shukla）是一位退役军
官，现在为《商业标准》网络杂志撰写防务方面的文章。据他所言，印度陆军依然打算继续使用老式的俄制T-72坦克和较新的T-90坦克，担心“阿琼”坦克不仅超重，而且可靠性也差。印度四分之一世纪前就启动了建造一种轻型战斗机的计划，以替换更早一代的“幻影”战斗机和米格-21战斗机。但根据这一计划研发的敏捷（Tejas）战斗机至今尚未装备军队。
There are signs of slow change. These include interest in allowing partnerships between India’s small but growing private-sector defence firms and foreign companies, which should stimulate technology transfer. But the deal to buy the Rafale has hit difficulties because, though Dassault would prefer to team up with private-sector firms such as Tata and Reliance, the government wants it to work with stodgy HAL. Even if Dassault had a free choice of partners, though, it is not clear that Indian industry could handle the amount of work the contract seeks to set aside for it.
有迹象表明这种状况开始出现缓慢的变化。印度有些私营军工企业规模虽小，但发展迅速。印度政府有意让这些企业与外国公司进行合作，如此可以促进技术转化。但购买“阵风”战斗机的交易却遇到了困难。虽然达索公司（Dassault）更愿意与塔塔（Tata）和信实工业（Reliance）这样的私营企业合作，但印度政府却要达索公司与业绩平平的印度斯坦航空有限公司联手。然而即使达索公司能够自由选择合作伙伴，印度的工业界是否有能力完成合同规定的大量任务尚不明了。
Richard Bitzinger, a former RAND Corporation analyst now at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, sums up the problem in a recent study for the Zurich-based International Relations and Security Network. If India does not stop coddling its existing state-run military-industrial complex, he says, it will never be capable of supplying its armed forces with the modern equipment they require. Without a concerted reform effort, a good part of the $200 billion India is due to spend on weaponry over the next 15 years looks likely to be wasted.
理查德?毕胜戈（Richard Bitzinger）曾是兰德公司的一位战略分析专家，现就职于新加坡拉热勒南国际关系学院。他在最近为总部设在苏黎世的国际关系和安全网做的一项研究报告中对这个问题进行了总结。他说，如果印度政府继续护着现存的国营军工企业，它就绝不可能为三军提供所需的现代化装备。如果不进行深入的改革，未来15年印度预定用于武器装备上的2000亿美元中的很大一部分都很可能会被浪费掉。
The tiger and the eagle
虎与鹰
Our interactive map demonstrates how the territorial claims of India, Pakistan and China would change the shape of South Asia
从本网站的互动地图中可以看出，印度、巴基斯坦及中国声索的领土将怎样改变南亚版图的形状
The money it will spend abroad also carries risks. Big foreign deals lend themselves to corruption. Investigations into accusations of bribery can delay delivery of urgently needed kit for years. The latest “scandal” of this sort surrounds a $750m order for helicopters from Italy’s Finmeccanica. The firm denies any wrongdoing, but the deal has been put on hold. 印度海外大把花钱采购武器也会带来风险。大宗的海外订单导致腐败。当受贿案件的调查进入到起诉阶段后，急需装备的交付可能会被耽搁数年之久。最近一起这类“丑闻”是在采购意大利芬梅卡尼卡集团（Finmeccanica）的直升机时出现的。这笔交易价值7.5亿美元。这家公司否认自己有任何违法行为，但这笔交易却被搁置了。
Britain, France, Israel and, above all, Russia (which still accounts for more than half of India’s military imports), look poised to be beneficiaries of the coming binge. America will get big contracts, too. But despite a ground-breaking civil nuclear deal in 2005 and the subsequent warming of relations, America is still regarded as a less politically reliable partner in Delhi. The distrust stems partly from previous arms embargoes, partly from America’s former closeness to Pakistan, partly from India’s concerns about being the junior partner in a relationship with the world’s pre-eminent superpower.
英国、法国和以色列，尤其是俄国（仍然是印度半数以上武器装备的进口国），看起来注定会成为这场盛宴的受益者。美国也会得到大笔的订单。尽管两国于2005年签订了具有突破性的民用核协议，而且随后打得火热，但印度依然认为美国不是一个政治上可靠的伙伴。这种不信任可能部分源于先前美国对印度的武器禁运，部分源于美国以往与巴基斯坦的紧密关系，部分源于印度担心在与这个世界占有支配地位的超级大国的关系中成为一个次要合伙人。
The dilemma over how close to get to America is particularly acute when it comes to China. America and India appear to share similar objectives. Neither wants the Indian Ocean to become a Chinese “lake”. But India does not want to provoke China into thinking that it is ganging up with America. And it worries that the complex relationship between America and China, while often scratchy, is of such vital importance that, in a crisis, America would
dump India rather than face down China. An Indian navy ordered to close down China’s oil supplies would not be able to do so if its American friends were set against it.
印度与美国走到多近才好，这令其感到困窘。当它与中国打交道时，这种困窘感就更加强烈。美国与印度似乎目标一致。两国都不想让印度洋变成一个“中国湖”。但印度不想激怒中国，不想让中国产生印美正在勾结起来的印象。印度对中美两国间复杂的关系也满是担忧。这两个国家虽然时有摩擦，但两国的关系如此重要，如果中印间出现一场危机时，美国很可能会抛弃印度，而不是压住中国。当一支印度海军舰队奉命去切断中国的石油运输通道时，如果其美国朋友反对，它也无力达成这个目标。
India’s search for the status appropriate to its ever-increasing economic muscle remains faltering and uncertain. Its problems with Pakistan are not of the sort that can be solved militarily. Mr Karnad argues that India, from a position of strength, should build better relations with Pakistan through some unilateral gestures, for example cutting back the size of the armoured forces massed in the deserts of Rajasthan and withdrawing its short-range missiles. General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, head of Pakistan’s army, has declared internal terrorism to be a greater danger to his country than India. That may also offer an opportunity.
虽然印度的经济实力不断增长，但印度在寻找与其相应的定位时依然彷徨和犹豫。它与巴基斯坦的问题是无法通过军事手段来解决的。卡纳德认为，印度居于强势地位，应通过单边示好的姿态来修复与巴基斯坦的关系。例如，印度可以裁减集结于拉贾斯坦沙漠中装甲部队的规模，撤走其短程导弹。巴基斯坦陆军参谋长阿什法克?帕尔韦兹?卡亚尼（Ashfaq Parvez Kayani）将军已经公开宣称，对巴基斯坦而言，其国内的恐怖主义是比印度更大的威胁。这番话也许提供了一个（改善两国关系的）机会。
China’s confidence in its new military power is unnerving to India. But if a condescending China in its pomp is galling, one in economic trouble or political turmoil and pandering to xenophobic popular opinion would be worse. Japan and South Korea have the reassurance of formal alliances with America. India does not. It is building new relationships with its neighbours to the east through military co-operation and trade deals. But it is reluctant to form or join more robust institutional security frameworks.
中国对其现在的军事实力充满了自信，这让印度紧张不安。傲慢的中国目前正处于其全盛期，谁要是惹得中国不高兴，则后果很严重，它就会面临经济上的麻烦和政治动荡的局面。如果为了迎合排外的民意那结果就会更糟。日本与韩国是美国的盟国，因而可以感到宽心。而印度却没有这种保障。印度目前正通过军事合作和贸易往来与其东方各邻国建立新型的关系。但印度却不愿组建或加入更加稳固的安全架构。这类架构一般都设有常设机构。
Instead of clear strategic thinking, India shuffles along, impeded by its caution and bureaucratic inertia. The symbol of these failings is India’s reluctance to reform a defence-industrial base that wastes huge amounts of money, supplies the armed forces with substandard kit and leaves the country dependent on foreigners for military modernisation.
印度没有明确的战略目标，只是摸索着前行，而且受困于谨小慎微的习惯和官僚主义的惰性。这些弱点表明印度无意改革其国防工业的基础。正是这个军工体制浪费掉印度巨额的财力，向军队提供的都是些质量低劣的装备，让印度不得不依赖外国来实现本国的军事现代化。
Since independence India has got away with having a weak strategic culture. Its undersized military ambitions have kept it out of most scrapes and allowed it to concentrate on other things instead. But as China bulks up, India’s strategic shortcomings are becoming a liability. And they are an obstacle to India’s dreams of becoming a true 21st-century power.
印度自从独立后就一直侥幸地没有受到缺失战略文化的惩罚。印度以往在军事上追求不高，因而免去了很多麻烦，可以集中精力应对其它事情。但当中国军事实力膨胀时，这些印度战略上的缺陷就正在成为其包袱。这些缺陷会成为印度梦想在21世纪成为一个真正军事强国的绊脚石。
译者：dqzxf
Dark matter 寻寻觅觅暗物质
【导语】物理学科最近好戏连台。去年，物理学家们捕获了上帝粒子——赋予亚原子粒子质量的希格波色子；如今又从国际空间站传来了消息：物理学家的搜寻已经逼近了暗物质。自1933年起人们就已经知道了暗物质的存在，现在更认为它占宇宙物质总量的85%。80年的寻寻觅觅，很快就要有结果了吗？
Dark matter
寻寻觅觅暗物质
Fractional distillation 分馏求索
The hunt for the missing 85% of matter in the universe is closing in on its quarry
搜寻现已逼近猎物：占宇宙总物质量85%的暗物质，你还要藏到哪一天？
Apr 6th 2013 | GENEVA |From the print edition
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IF YOU thought the Higgs boson was elusive, consider the case of dark matter. The Higgs—the particle that gives other subatomic species mass—was predicted in 1964 but actually nabbed only last year. That 48-year hunt, though, was a breeze compared with the one for dark matter. Physicists have known the stuff must exist since 1933, when Fritz Zwicky, a Swiss astro-physicist, coined the term to describe a substance which cannot be seen but without which visible galaxies would fly apart as they rotate. The latest results
from the European Space Agency’s Planck satellite suggest it makes up 85% of all the matter in the universe (up from an earlier estimate of around 80%).
如果你认为希格波色子已经够扑朔迷离的了，那你不妨再想想暗物质的情况。赋予其他亚原子粒子质量的希格子是人们在1964年预言的，但只在去年才真正找到了它们。不过，跟对暗物质的搜寻相比，这48年的搜寻只不过是小巫见大巫而已。自1933年起，物理学家们就知道这种物质一定存在；当时，瑞士天体物理学家弗瑞兹?兹维基注1（Fritz Zwicky）创造了暗物质这一术语，用以描述一种人们无法目睹、但如果它不存在则肉眼可见的星系就会在旋转时分崩离析、四散纷飞的物质。来自欧洲航天局（European Space Agency）“普朗克”（Planck）号卫星的最新结果表明，暗物质所占宇宙全部物质总量的比例多于早些时约80%的估计，达到了 85%。
Like the Higgs boson, though, the actual particles of which dark matter is composed have proved elusive. Eight decades after Zwicky’s observations, and dozens of experiments later, they remain undetected. But on April 3rd an experiment called the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) offered the most tantalising hints yet.
但人们发现，实际构成暗物质的粒子也跟希格波色子一样神秘莫测。在兹维基预言其存在后的80年间，尽管人们进行了几十次实验，但它依旧鸿飞冥冥，“芳”踪杳然。然而，4月3日，一项人称阿尔法磁谱探测（AMS）的实验给出了迄今为止最为撩人心弦的线索。
Although Samuel Ting, the Nobel laureate who heads the effort, presented the findings at CERN (Europe’s, and the world’s, principal particle-physics laboratory), they did not stem from CERN’s own accelerators hidden beneath the Franco-Swiss countryside outside Geneva. In fact, they did not hail from Earth at all, for AMS sits on board the International Space Station (ISS), and is arguably the only piece of scientifically useful kit ever to grace that $100 billion contraption.
主持这一项目的是诺贝尔奖金得主丁肇中注2（Samuel Ting）；尽管他是在欧洲核子研究委员会（CERN）（欧洲与全球首屈一指的粒子物理实验室）发布这一结果的，但这些成果并不是在CERN自己的粒子加速器（深藏在日内瓦城外、法国-瑞士交界的乡村地下）内完成的。而且，这些结果实际上根本就不是地球上的产物，因为AMS现在正搭乘国际空间站飞行——有人认为，迄今为止，这台科学上用处良多的设备是唯一一套能让耗资1000亿美元的奇妙空间站增色的装置。
Like its ground-based cousins at CERN, AMS consists of a large magnet and an array of sensors to track a charged particle’s path. Unlike them, the particles it tracks are not the product of smashing things together in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), humanity’s biggest particle accelerator. Instead, AMS uses the most powerful accelerator of all: the universe itself.
跟它设置在CERN的那些地球同侪们一样，AMS也是由一大块磁铁和一个追踪带电粒子轨迹的传感器阵列组成的。但与它们不同的是，AMS追踪的并不是在人类最大的粒子加速器——大型强子对撞机（Large Hadron Collider (LHC)）中粒子对撞的产物；它所使用的，是一切加速器中最为强大的一台：宇宙本身。
A matter of fact?
事实果真如此吗？