A Tutorial on the Discounted Cash Flow
Model for Valuation of Companies
L.Peter Jennergren?
Sixth revision,August25,2006
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration No.1998:1
Abstract
All steps of the discounted cash?ow model are outlined.Essential steps are: calculation of free cash?ow,forecasting of future accounting data(income state-
ments and balance sheets),and discounting of free cash?ow.There is particular
emphasis on forecasting those balance sheet items which relate to Property,Plant,
and Equipment.There is an exemplifying valuation included(of a company called
McKay),as an illustration.A number of other valuation models(abnormal earn-
ings,adjusted present value,economic value added,and discounted dividends)are
also discussed.Earlier versions of this working paper were entitled“A Tutorial on
the McKinsey Model for Valuation of Companies”.
Key words:Valuation,free cash?ow,discounting,accounting data
JEL classi?cation:G31,M41,C60
?Stockholm School of Economics,Box6501,S-11383Stockholm,Sweden.The author is indebted to Tomas Hjelstr¨o m,Joakim Levin,Per Olsson,Kenth Skogsvik,and Ignacio Velez-Pareja for discussions and comments.
1Introduction
This tutorial explains all the steps of the discounted cash?ow model,prominently featured in a book by an author team from McKinsey&Company(Tim Koller,Marc Goedhart,and David Wessels:Valuation:Measuring and Managing the Value of Compa-nies,Wiley,Hoboken,New Jersey;4th ed.2005).The purpose is to enable the reader to set up a complete valuation model of his/her own,at least for a company with a simple structure.The discussion proceeds by means of an extended valuation example.The company that is subject to the valuation exercise is the McKay company.1 The McKay example in this tutorial is somewhat similar to the Preston example (concerning a trucking company)in the?rst two editions of Valuation:Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies(Copeland et al.1990,Copeland et al.1994).How-ever,certain simpli?cations have been made,for easier understanding of the model.In particular,the capital structure of McKay is composed only of equity and debt(i.e., no convertible bonds,etc.).Also,McKay has no capital leases or capitalized pension liabilities.2McKay is a single-division company and has no foreign operations(and con-sequently there are no translation di?erences).There is no goodwill and no minority interest.The purpose of the McKay example is merely to present all essential aspects of the discounted cash?ow model as simply as possible.Some of the historical income statement and balance sheet data have been taken from the Preston example.However, the forecasted income statements and balance sheets are totally di?erent from Preston’s. All monetary units are unspeci?ed in this tutorial(in the Preston example in Copeland et al.1990,Copeland et al.1994,they are millions of US dollars).
This tutorial is intended as a guided tour through one particular implementation of the discounted cash?ow model and should therefore be viewed only as exemplifying:This is one way to set up a valuation model.Some modelling choices that have been made will be pointed out later on.However,it should be noted right away that the speci?cation given below of net Property,Plant,and Equipment(PPE)as driven by revenues agrees with Koller et al.2005.The?rst two editions of Valuation:Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies contain two alternative model speci?cations relating to investment
1Previous versions of this tutorial were entitled“A Tutorial on the McKinsey Model for Valuation of Companies”,since they focused on the McKinsey implementation of the discounted cash?ow model. However,after several revisions of the McKinsey book as well as of this tutorial,there are now some di?erences in emphasis and approach between the two,motivating the title change.Otherwise,the most important changes in the sixth revision of this tutorial are as follows:The working capital items inventories and accounts payable are now driven by operating expenses,rather than by revenues.Section 15and Appendix2are new.
2Pension contributions in McKay may hence may be thought of as paid out to an outside pension fund concurrently with the salaries generating those contributions,so no pension debt remains on the company’s books.
in PPE(cf.Levin and Olsson1995).
In the following respect,this tutorial is an extension of Koller et al.2005:It contains a more detailed discussion of capital expenditures,i.e.,the mechanism whereby cash is absorbed by investments in PPE.This mechanism centers on two particular forecast assumptions,[this year’s net PPE/revenues]and[depreciation/last year’s net PPE].3It is explained below how those assumptions can be speci?ed consistently.On a related note, the treatment of deferred income taxes is somewhat di?erent,and also more detailed, compared to Koller et al.2005.In particular,deferred income taxes are related to a forecast ratio[timing di?erences/this year’s net PPE],and it is suggested how to set that ratio.
There is also another extension in this tutorial:Alternative valuation models are also discussed.In fact,in the end McKay is valued through?ve di?erent models.
The McKay valuation is set up as a spreadsheet?le in Excel named MCK.XLS.That ?le is an integral part of this tutorial.The model consists of the following parts(as can be seen by downloading the?le):
Table1.Historical income statements,
Table2.Historical balance sheets,
Table3.Historical free cash?ow,
Table4.Historical ratios for forecast assumptions,
Table5.Forecasted income statements,
Table6.Forecasted balance sheets,
Table7.Forecasted free cash?ow,
Table8.Forecast assumptions,
Value calculations.
Tables in the spreadsheet?le and in the?le printout that is included in this tutorial are hence indicated by numerals,like Table1.Tables in the tutorial text are indicated by capital letters,like Table A.
The outline of this tutorial is as follows:Section2gives an overview of essential model features.Section3summarizes the calculation of free cash?ow.Section4is an introduction to forecasting?nancial statements and also discusses forecast assumptions relating to operations and working capital.Sections5,6,and7deal with the speci?cation of the forecast ratios[this year’s net PPE/revenues],[depreciation/last year’s net PPE], and[retirements/last year’s net PPE].Section8considers forecast assumptions about taxes.Further forecast assumptions,relating to discount rates and?nancing,are discussed in Section9.Section10outlines the construction of forecasted?nancial statements and free cash?ow,given that all forecast assumptions have been?xed.Section11outlines a
3Square brackets are used to indicate speci?c ratios that appear in tables in the spreadsheet?les.
slightly di?erent version of the McKay example,with another system for accounting for deferred income taxes.4The discounting procedure is explained in Section12.Section13 gives results from a sensitivity analysis,i.e.,computed values of McKay’s equity when certain forecast assumptions are revised.Section14discusses another valuation model, the abnormal earnings model,and indicates how McKay’s equity can be valued by that model.Section15considers a di?erent?nancing policy for McKay.Under that?nancing policy,McKay is valued by?ve di?erent models(discounted cash?ow,adjusted present value,economic value added,discounted dividends,and abnormal earnings).5Section 16contains concluding remarks.Appendix1discusses how a data base from Statistics Sweden can be used as an aid in specifying parameters related to the forecast ratios[this year’s net PPE/revenues],[depreciation/last year’s net PPE]and[retirements/last year’s net PPE].Appendix2is a note on the value driver formula that is recommended for continuing value by Koller et al.2005.
2Model overview
Essential features of the discounted cash?ow model are the following:
1.The model uses published accounting data as input.Historical income statements and balance sheets are used to derive certain critical?nancial ratios.Those historical ratios are used as a starting point in making predictions for the same ratios in future years.
2.The object of the discounted cash?ow model is to value the equity of a going concern.Even so,the asset side of the balance sheet is initially valued.The value of the interest-bearing debt is then subtracted to get the value of the equity.Interest-bearing debt does not include deferred income taxes and trade credit(accounts payable and other current liabilities).Credit in the form of accounts payable is paid for not in interest but in higher operating expenses(i.e.,higher purchase prices of raw materials)and is therefore part of operations rather than?nancing.Deferred income taxes are viewed as part of equity;cf.Sections9and10.It may seem like an indirect approach to value the assets and deduct interest-bearing debt to arrive at the equity(i.e.,it may seem more straight-forward to value the equity directly,by discounting future expected dividends). However,this indirect approach is the recommended one,since it leads to greater clarity and fewer errors in the valuation process(cf.Koller et al.2005,pp.126-128).
4This version of the McKay example is contained in the Excel?le MCK B.XLS.A printout from that ?le is also included in this tutorial.The two versions of the McKay example are equivalent as regards cash?ow and resulting value.In other words,it is only the procedure for computing free cash?ow that di?ers(slightly)between them.
5See the?le MCK EXT.XLS.A printout from that?le is also included here.
3.The value of the asset side is the value of operations plus excess marketable secu-rities.The latter can usually be valued using book values or published market values. Excess marketable securities include cash that is not necessary for operations.For valu-ation purposes,the cash account may hence have to be divided into two parts,operating cash(which is used for facilitating transactions relating to actual operations),and ex-cess cash.(In the case of McKay,excess marketable securities have been netted against interest-bearing debt at the date of valuation.Hence there are actually no excess mar-ketable securities in the McKay valuation.This is one of the modelling choices that were alluded to in the introduction.)
4.The operations of the?rm,i.e.,the total asset side minus excess marketable secu-rities,are valued by the WACC method.In other words,free cash?ow from operations is discounted to a present value using the WACC.There is then a simultaneity problem (actually quite trivial)concerning the WACC.More precisely,the debt and equity values enter into the WACC weights.However,equity value is what the model aims to determine.
5.The asset side valuation is done in two parts:Free cash?ow from operations is forecasted for a number of individual years in the explicit forecast period.After that, there is a continuing(post-horizon)value derived from free cash?ow in the?rst year of the post-horizon period(and hence individual yearly forecasts must be made for each year in the explicit forecast period and for one further year,the?rst one immediately following the explicit forecast period).The explicit forecast period should consist of at least10-15years(cf.Koller et al.2005,p.230).The explicit forecast period can be thought of as a transient phase during a turn-around or after a take-over.The post-horizon period, on the other hand,is characterized by steady-state development.This means that the explicit forecast period should as a minimal requirement be su?ciently long to capture transitory e?ects,e.g.,during a turn-around operation.Actually,it is a requirement of the present implementation of the discounted cash?ow model that the explicit forecast period should not be shorter than the economic life of the PPE.
6.For any future year,free cash?ow from operations is calculated from forecasted income statements and balance sheets.This means that free cash?ow is derived from a consistent scenario,de?ned by forecasted?nancial statements.This is probably the main strength of the discounted cash?ow model,since it is di?cult to make reasonable forecasts of free cash?ow in a direct fashion.Financial statements are forecasted in nominal terms (which implies that nominal free cash?ow is discounted using a nominal discount rate).
7.Continuing value is computed through an in?nite discounting formula.In this tutorial,the Gordon formula is used(cf.Brealey et al.2006,pp.40,65).In other words, free cash?ow in the post-horizon period increases by some constant percentage from year to year,hence satisfying a necessary condition for in?nite discounting.(The Gordon formula is another one of the modelling choices made in this tutorial.)
As can be inferred from this list of features,and as will be explained below,the discounted cash?ow model combines three rather di?erent tasks:The?rst one is the production of forecasted?nancial statements.This is not trivial.In particular,it involves issues relating to capital expenditures that are fairly complex.(The other valuation models use forecasted?nancial statements,just like the discounted cash?ow model,so the?rst task is the same for those models as well.)
The second task is deriving free cash?ow from operations from?nancial statements. At least in principle,this is rather trivial.In fairness,it is not always easy to calculate free cash?ow from complicated historical income statements and balance sheets.However,all ?nancial statements in this tutorial are very simple(and there is,in any case,no reason to forecast accounting complexities if the purpose is one of valuation).The third task is discounting forecasted free cash?ow to a present value.While not exactly trivial,this task is nevertheless one that has been discussed extensively in the corporate?nance literature, so there is guidance available.This tutorial will explain the mechanics of discounting in the discounted cash?ow model.However,issues relating to how the relevant discount rates are determined will largely be brushed aside.Instead,the reader is referred to standard text books(for instance,Brealey et al.2006,chapters9,17,and19).
3Historical?nancial statements and the calculation of free cash?ow
The valuation of McKay is as of Jan.1year1.Historical input data are the income statements and balance sheets for the years?6to0,Tables1and2.Table1also includes statements of retained earnings.It may be noted in Table1that operating expenses do not include depreciation.In other words,the operating expenses are cash costs.At the bottom of Table2,there are a couple of?nancial ratio calculations based on historical data for the given years.Short-term debt in the balance sheets(Table2)is that portion of last year’s long-term debt which matures within a year.It is clear from Tables1and 2that McKay’s?nancial statements are very simple,and consequently the forecasted statements will also have a simple structure.As already mentioned earlier,McKay has no excess marketable securities in the last historical balance sheet,i.e.,at the date of valuation.
From the data in Tables1and2,historical free cash?ow for the years?5to0 is computed in Table3.Each annual free cash?ow computation involves two balance sheets,that of the present year and the previous one,so no free cash?ow can be obtained for year?6.Essentially the same operations are used to forecast free cash?ow for year1and later years(in Table7).The free cash?ow calculations assume that the clean surplus relationship holds.This implies that the change in book equity(including retained
earnings)equals net income minus net dividends(the latter could be negative,if there is an issue of common equity).The clean surplus relationship does not hold,if PPE is written down(or up)directly against common equity(for instance).Such accounting operations may complicate the calculation of free cash?ow from historical?nancial statements(and if so,that calculation may not be trivial).However,there is usually no reason to forecast deviations from the clean surplus relationship in a valuation situation.
EBIT in Table3means Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.NOPLAT means Net Op-erating Pro?ts Less Adjusted Taxes.Taxes on EBIT consist of calculated taxes according to the income statement(from Table1)plus[this year’s tax rate]×(interest expense) minus[this year’s tax rate]×(interest income).Interest income and interest expense are taken from Table1.The tax rate is given in Table4.Calculated taxes according to the income statement re?ect depreciation of PPE over the economic life.Change in deferred income taxes is this year’s deferred income taxes minus last year’s deferred income taxes. In the McKay valuation example,it is assumed that deferred income taxes come about for one reason only,timing di?erences in depreciation of PPE.That is,?scal depreciation takes place over a period shorter than the economic life.
Working capital is de?ned net.Hence,working capital consists of the following balance sheet items:Operating cash plus trade receivables plus other receivables plus inventories plus prepaid expenses minus accounts payable minus other current liabilities.Accounts payable and other current liabilities are apparently considered to be part of the operations of the?rm,not part of the?nancing(they are not interest-bearing debt items).Change in working capital in Table3is hence this year’s working capital minus last year’s working capital.Capital expenditures are this year’s net PPE minus last year’s net PPE plus this year’s depreciation.Depreciation is taken from Table1,net PPE from Table2.It should be emphasized that depreciation in Table1(and forecasted depreciation in Table5)is according to plan,over the economic life of the PPE.
Free cash?ow in Table3is hence cash generated by the operations of the?rm,after paying taxes on operations only,and after expenditures for additional working capital and after capital expenditures.(“Additional working capital”could of course be negative.If so,free cash?ow is generated rather than absorbed by working capital.)Hence,free cash ?ow represents cash that is available for distribution to the holders of debt and equity in the?rm,and for investment in additional excess marketable securities.Stated somewhat di?erently,free cash?ow is equal to?nancial cash?ow,which is the utilization of free cash?ow for?nancial purposes.Table3also includes a break-down of?nancial cash?ow. By de?nition,free cash?ow must be exactly equal to?nancial cash?ow.
We now return brie?y to the?nancial ratios at the end of Table2.Invested capi-tal is equal to working capital plus net PPE.Debt at the end of Table2in the ratio [debt/invested capital]is interest-bearing(short-term and long-term).The?nancial ratio
[NOPLAT/invested capital]is also referred to as ROIC(Return on Invested Capital).It is a better analytical tool for understanding the company’s performance than other return measures such as return on equity or return on assets,according to Koller et al.(2005,p. 183).Invested capital in the ratio[NOPLAT/invested capital]is the average of last year’s and this year’s.It is seen that McKay has provided a decreasing rate of return in recent years.It can also be seen from Table3that the free cash?ow has been negative,and that the company has handled this situation by increasing its debt.It is evident from the bottom of Table2that the ratio of interest-bearing debt to invested capital has increased substantially from year?6to year0.
Table4contains a set of historical?nancial ratios.Those ratios are important,since forecasts of the same ratios will be used to produce forecasted income statements and balance sheets.Most of the items in Table4are self-explanatory,but a few observations are called https://www.doczj.com/doc/fe3076149.html, PPE(which is taken from Table2)enters into four ratios.In two of those cases,[depreciation/net PPE]and[retirements/net PPE],the net PPE in question is last year’s.In the other two cases,[net PPE/revenues]and[timing di?erences/net PPE],the net PPE in question is this year’s.Retirements are de?ned as depreciation minus change in accumulated depreciation between this year and last year(accumulated depreciation is taken from Table2).This must hold,since last year’s accumulated de-preciation plus this year’s depreciation minus this year’s retirements equals this year’s accumulated depreciation.
The timing di?erences for a given year are measured between accumulated?scal depre-ciation of PPE and accumulated depreciation according to PPE economic life.For a given piece of PPE that is about to be retired,accumulated?scal depreciation and accumulated depreciation according to economic life are both equal to the original acquisition value. Consequently,non-zero timing di?erences are related to non-retired PPE only.The ratio [timing di?erences/net PPE]in Table4has been calculated by?rst dividing the deferred income taxes for a given year by the same year’s corporate tax rate(also given in Table 4).This gives that year’s timing di?erences.After that,there is a second division by that year’s net PPE.
4Forecast assumptions relating to operations and working capital
Having recorded the historical performance of McKay in Tables1-4,we now turn to the task of forecasting free cash?ow for years1and later.Individual free cash?ow forecasts are produced for each year1to12.The free cash?ow amounts for years1to11 are discounted individually to a present value.The free cash?ow for year12and all later years is discounted through the Gordon formula,with the free cash?ow in year12as a
starting value.Years1to11are therefore the explicit forecast period,and year12and all later years the post-horizon period.As required,the explicit forecast period is longer than the economic life of the PPE(the latter is assumed to be10years in Section7).
Tables5-8have the same format as Tables1-4.In fact,Table5may be seen as a continuation of Table1,Table6as a continuation of Table2,and so on.We start the forecasting job by setting up Table8,the forecast https://www.doczj.com/doc/fe3076149.html,ing assumptions (?nancial ratios and others)in that table,and using a couple of further direct forecasts of individual items,we can set up the forecasted income statements,Table5,and the forecasted balance sheets,Table6.From Tables5and6,we can then in Table7derive the forecasted free cash?ow(just like we derived the historical free cash?ow in Table3, using information in Tables1and2).
Consider now the individual items in Table8.It should be noted in Table8that all items are the same for year12,the?rst year of the post-horizon period,as for year11,the last year of the explicit forecast period.Since the?rst year in the post-horizon period is representative of all subsequent post-horizon period years,all items are the same for every post-horizon period year as for the last year of the explicit forecast period.This is actually an important condition(cf.Levin and Olsson1995,p.38;Lundholm and O’Keefe2001, pp.321-322):If that condition holds,then free cash?ow increases by the same percentage (the nominal revenue growth rate for year12in Table8,cell T135)between all successive years in the post-horizon period.This means that a necessary condition for discounting by means of the Gordon formula in the post-horizon period is satis?ed.
The revenue growth in each future year is a combination of in?ation and real growth. More precisely,nominal revenue growth is“one plus real growth multiplied by one plus expected in?ation minus one”.Actually,in years10and11there is no real growth,and the same assumption holds for all later years as well(in the application of the Gordon formula).The underlying assumption in Table8is apparently that real operations will initially expand but will eventually(in year10)settle down to a steady state with no further real growth.In?ation,on the other hand,is assumed to be3%in all coming years(including after year12).The ratio of operating expenses to revenues is assumed to improve immediately,e.g.,as a consequence of a determined turn-around e?ort.Ap-parently,it is set to90%year1and all later years.To avoid misunderstandings,this forecast assumption and the other ones displayed in Table8are not necessarily intended to be the most realistic ones that can be imagined.The purpose is merely to demonstrate the mechanics of the discounted cash?ow model for one particular scenario.A table in Levin and Olsson1995(p.124;based on accounting data from Statistics Sweden)contains information about typical values of the ratio between operating expenses and revenues in various Swedish industries(cf.also Appendix1for a further discussion of the Statistics Sweden data base).
A number of items in the forecasted income statements and balance sheets are directly driven by revenues.That is,those items are forecasted as percentages of revenues.In particular,this holds for most of the working capital items.It is thus assumed that as revenues increase,the required amounts of working capital for these items increase correspondingly.It is not important whether revenues increase due to in?ation or real growth,or a combination of both.Working capital turns over very quickly,and therefore it is a reasonable assumption that these working capital items are simply proportional to revenues.The ratios between the di?erent working capital items and revenues for future years in Table8have been set equal to the average values of the corresponding historical percentages in Table4.Again,this is only for illustrative purposes.Another table in Levin and Olsson1995(p.125),again based on data from Statistics Sweden, reports average values of the ratio between(aggregate)working capital and revenues in di?erent Swedish industries.Two of the working capital items,inventories and accounts payable,are forecasted as percentages of operating expenses rather than as percentages of revenues.This is actually not a very important distinction(i.e.,one may perhaps just as well forecast all working capital items as percentages of revenues;cf.Koller et al.2005, pp.243-244).The ratios between these two working capital items and operating expenses for future years are also set as average historical values.
5Forecast assumptions relating to property,plant, and equipment
The forecast assumptions relating to PPE will be considered next(this section and the following two).The equations that determine capital expenditures may be stated as follows(subscripts denote years):
(capital expenditures)t=(net PPE)t?(net PPE)t?1+depreciation t,
(net PPE)t=revenues t×[this year’s net PPE/revenues],
depreciation t=(net PPE)t?1×[depreciation/last year’s net PPE].
To this set of equations,we may add three more that are actually not necessary for the model:
retirements t=(net PPE)t?1×[retirements/last year’s net PPE],
(accumulated depreciation)t
=(accumulated depreciation)t?1+depreciation t?retirements t, (gross PPE)t=(net PPE)t+(accumulated depreciation)t.
In particular,this second set of three equations is needed only if one wants to produce forecasted balance sheets showing how net PPE is related to gross PPE minus accumulated depreciation.It should be noted that such detail is not necessary,since the?rst set of
three equations su?ces for determining net PPE,depreciation,and consequently also capital expenditures.6
It is clear from the?rst three equations that forecasts have to be made for two partic-ular ratios,[this year’s net PPE/revenues]and[depreciation/last year’s net PPE].Setting those ratios in a consistent fashion involves somewhat technical considerations.In this section and the following one,one way of proceeding,consistent with the idea of the company developing in a steady-state fashion in the post-horizon period,will be outlined.
To begin with,the idea of the company developing in a steady-state fashion has to be made more precise.As indicated in Section4,the forecast assumptions should be speci?ed in such a manner that nominal free cash?ow increases by a constant percentage every year in the post-horizon period.This is a necessary condition for in?nite discounting by the Gordon formula.But if so,capital expenditures must also increase by the same constant percentage in every post-horizon period year.For this condition on capital expenditures to hold,there must be an even age distribution of nominal acquisition values of successive PPE cohorts.More precisely,it must hold that the acquisition value of each PPE cohort develops in line with the assumed constant growth percentage that is applicable to the post-horizon period.As also mentioned in Section4,that constant percentage is the same as the assumed nominal revenue growth in the post-horizon period,3%in the McKay example.
The general idea is now to set steady-state values of the two ratios[this year’s net PPE/revenues]and[depreciation/last year’s net PPE]for the last year of the explicit forecast period(year11in the McKay example).Those steady-state values will then also hold for every year in the post-horizon period(since all forecast assumptions have to be the same in the?rst year of the post-horizon period as in the last year of the explicit forecast period,as already explained in Section4).
During the preceding years of the explicit forecast period,steady-state values of[this year’s net PPE/revenues]and[depreciation/last year’s net PPE]are not assumed.Values for these two ratios in the preceding explicit forecast period years are?xed in the following heuristic fashion in the McKay example:For the?rst year of the explicit forecast period, they are set as averages of the corresponding values for the historical years.7Values for
6If the historical?nancial statements do not show gross PPE and accumulated depreciation,only net PPE,then it seems pointless to try to include these items in the forecasted?nancial statements.If so, the second set of three equations is deleted.In the McKay case,the historical statements do indicate gross PPE and accumulated depreciation.For that(aesthetic)reason,those items will also be included in the forecasted statements.
7The value for the last year of the explicit forecast period of[retirements/last year’s net PPE]is also set as a steady-state value.For the?rst year of the explicit forecast period,that ratio is set equal to the corresponding value for the last historical year.An average of corresponding values for all historical years is not used in this case,since[retirements/last year’s net PPE]appears to have been unstable during
intermediate(between the?rst and last)years in the explicit forecast period are then determined by interpolation.
6The ratios[this year’s net PPE/revenues]and[de-preciation/last year’s net PPE]in the last year of the explicit forecast period
It is helpful at this point to proceed more formally and introduce the following notation:
g real growth rate in the last year of the explicit forecast period and in the
post-horizon period,
i in?ation rate in the last year of the explicit forecast period and in the
post-horizon period,
c nominal(composite)growth rate=(1+g)(1+i)?1,
n economic life of PPE(assumed to be integer),
q life of PPE for?scal depreciation;see Section8(assumed to be integer),
K required real gross PPE divided by(real)revenues in the last year of the explicit forecast period and in the post-horizon period,
M ratio between this year’s nominal gross PPE and(nominal)revenues in the last year of the explicit forecast period and in the post-horizon period,
F g backwards summation factor expressing real gross PPE,
F c backwards summation factor expressing nominal gross PPE,
a acquisition value of last PPE cohort(nominal and real;real=nominal now),
H steady-state accumulated depreciation as a fraction of gross PPE,
J factor expressing timing di?erences;see Section8.
It is assumed in this tutorial that g and i are non-negative.To assume negative in?ation over an in?nite number of years is simply not credible.Negative real growth of the?rm over an in?nite number of years is also not realistic in connection with the discounted cash?ow model.If such a situation were really foreseen,then a break-up valuation would be more relevant than a going concern valuation(as implied by the discounted cash?ow model).Apparently,in the McKay example g=0.00,i=0.03,and consequently c=0.03 in the last year of the explicit forecast period and from then on.
The main task in this section is to set the steady-state value of the ratio[this year’s net PPE/revenues].As before,by steady state is meant that the acquisition values of
years?5to0.The negative value of that ratio in year-2could have come about through purchases of used(second-hand)PPE.It is again noted that the ratio[retirements/last year’s net PPE]is actually not necessary for the valuation model.
successive PPE cohorts increase by c,the nominal growth rate of revenues.Also as noted before,steady-state values of all forecast ratios must be attained already in the last year of the explicit forecast period.
At this point,there is a need for some model of the relationship between revenues and PPE,that is,a model of the?rm’s production.It is assumed here that revenues are related to real gross PPE through a capital intensity factor K.In other words,in the last year of the explicit forecast period and from then on,real gross PPE must be equal to revenues multiplied by K.Real means expressed in the value of money of the current year in question.Real revenues are equal to nominal revenues for the current year.Real gross PPE means nominal gross PPE adjusted for in?ation.Such an adjustment implies revaluing each PPE cohort,through multiplication by a factor that expresses accumulated in?ation since that cohort was acquired.By relating revenues to real gross PPE,one eliminates e?ects due to in?ation.The assumption that revenues are related to gross rather than net PPE implies that each piece of PPE is100%productive until the end of its economic life.At that point in time,it suddenly ceases to function and is retired.This seems like a somewhat more intuitive hypothesis than the alternative,relating revenues to net PPE,since that would mean that the productivity of each piece of PPE is proportional to its remaining economic life.
It is the steady-state value of the ratio[this year’s net PPE/revenues]that is the object here,but initially M will be derived,that is,the ratio between this year’s nominal gross PPE and(nominal)revenues in the last year of the explicit forecast period and in the post-horizon period.After that,M is multiplied by a factor(1?H)expressing steady-state net PPE as a fraction of steady-state gross PPE,hence providing steady-state[this year’s net PPE/revenues].
Suppose now that a is the acquisition value of the last PPE cohort,which has just been purchased at the end of the current year.That acquisition value is the real one, expressed in current monetary units.Given the steady-state assumption,which implies that the acquisition values of previous cohorts have increased in real terms by the real growth rate g from year to year,the real value of gross PPE(in current monetary units
and at the end of the current year)is hence F g·a,where8
F g=n?1
v=0
1
1+g
v
=
1+g?(1+g)?(n?1)
g
if g>0;F g=n if g=0.
The physical requirement for gross PPE then implies that
F g·a=K·revenues.
Similarly,the nominal value of gross PPE at the end of the current year,under the steady-state assumption,is F c·a,where
F c=n?1
v=0
1
1+c
v
=
1+c?(1+c)?(n?1)
c
if c>0;F c=n if c=0.
Consequently,
F c·a=M·revenues.
The formulas for F g and F c are contained in cells S152and S153in Table8.It follows that(cell S155)
M=(F c/F g)·K.
Accumulated depreciation as a fraction of gross PPE in a steady state,H,can be written as(using(1)withω=n?1;cf.also Levin and Olsson1995,pp.37,51):
H= n?1
v=0
1
1+c
v
·v
n
F c
=
?n(1+c)?(n?1)(1?(1+c)?1)+(1?(1+c)?n)
(1?(1+c)?1)2
·1
1+c
·1
n
F c
=
1+c?(nc+1)(1+c)?(n?1)
c2n F c =
1
cn
?1
(1+c)n?1
if c>0;H=
n?1
2n
if c=0.(2)
The formula for H is contained in cell S156.The desired steady-state ratio[this year’s net PPE/revenues]is then
M(1?H).(3) This is the formula in cell S157of Table8.
8The formulas for F g and F c use the summation
ω
v=0x v=
1?xω+1
1?x
(x=1).
The following summation formula is also used below ω
v=0x v v=
d
dx
ω
v=0
x v
·x=
?(ω+1)xω(1?x)+(1?xω+1)
(1?x)2
·x(x=1).(1)
Assuming linear depreciation over the economic life of the PPE,the steady-state ratio [depreciation/last year’s net PPE]is
1 n ·1
1?H
.
This is the formula in cell S158of Table8.9
The steady-state ratios derived in this section apparently depend on four parameters, the real growth rate g,the in?ation rate i(since c depends on g and i),the capital intensity factor K,and the economic life n of the PPE.10Armed with the formulas derived here, one can perform sensitivity analyses of how calculated equity value varies due to changes in these four parameters.
7On the implementation of assumptions relating to PPE
The forecast for the ratio[this year’s net PPE/revenues]in the last year of the explicit forecast period can hence be obtained as equation(3)in the previous section,given that n,g,i,and K have been speci?ed.One parameter that may be di?cult to specify is K.
At least in principle,an estimate of K can be obtained from historical?nancial state-ments of the company being valued.For each one of the last n historical years,one determines the capital expenditures,like in Table3.Apparently,this means that n+1 sets of historical?nancial statements must be available.Each such amount except the last one is then in?ated to the price level that is valid for the last historical year.This is done using some suitable time series of historical in?ation rates during the n?1pre-ceding historical years.After that,all n amounts are summed,and the sum is divided by revenues in the last historical year.The result is an estimate of K at the end of the his-torical period.A forecast of K in the last year of the explicit forecast period can then be obtained by assuming,e.g.,a slightly lower value,re?ecting some improvement in capital usage e?ciency.In the McKay example,this procedure is not immediately applicable, however,since n+1=11sets of historical?nancial statements are not available(?nancial statements are available only for7historical years).
9The steady-state formula for[retirements/last year’s net PPE]is
(1+c)?n F c(1+c)?1·1
1?H
=
1
F c(1+c)(n?1)
·1
1?H
.
This is the formula in cell S159in Table8.
10Actually,steady-state[depreciation/last year’s net PPE]and steady-state[retirements/last year’s net PPE]depend on two parameters only,c and n.That is,they do not depend on g and i separately.All that matters for these two ratios is nominal growth c,not how that growth comes about due to di?erent combinations of real growth g and expected in?ation i.
A more heuristic approach would be to set K so as to obtain a“reasonable”value of the ratio[this year’s net PPE/revenues]in the last year of the explicit forecast period, reasonable meaning in relation to what has actually been observed in historical years.It is assumed here that g,i,and n have already been?xed.That is,K is set after these other three.Under this more heuristic approach,there is no attempt to ascertain what K has actually been in the historical period.One merely uses K as a free parameter to obtain a forecasted value of the ratio[this year’s net PPE/revenues]in the last year of the explicit forecast period that seems acceptable.
Another approach to setting K is to take as a starting point the data base from Statistics Sweden that was mentioned in Section4.It is indicated in Appendix1how that data base can be used to provide rough estimates of K.Table C in Appendix1 contains suggested K values for various industries.It has been noted in a number of valuation projects,though,that the K values in that table often appear rather high. For instance,K is seen to be equal to0.81for the land transportation industry(using data pertaining to1994-1998).But that seems too high for the McKay example,even though it refers to a trucking company,and hence to the land transportation industry. One reason why it is too high could be that land transportation also includes railways,i.
e.,more capital intensive activities than trucking.
Without further justi?cation,it is simply assumed here that K is equal to0.58in the McKay case.This is the value for K in year11that is shown in Table8(cell S154).Using equation(3),the value of[this year’s net PPE/revenues]in the same year(cell S157)is then found to be29.3%.
The McKay example considers only one homogeneous category of PPE with an as-sumed economic life of n=10years(cell S151).One can of course set up a valuation model with di?erent categories of PPE,e.g.,machinery and buildings.The economic life of each category is sometimes mentioned in company annual reports.To cite only one example,the1996annual report of the Swedish company R¨o rviksgruppen states economic lives between5and10years for di?erent types of machinery,and between20and25years for buildings and land improvements.The assumption that n is integer is not restrictive, if di?erent categories of PPE are considered,since individual categories can be thought of as having di?erent integer economic lives.
To recapitulate,this section and the previous two have considered forecasts for three particular ratios,[this year’s net PPE/revenues],[depreciation/last year’s net PPE],and [retirements/last year’s net PPE].Steady-state values of these ratios can be speci?ed for the last year of the explicit forecast period.Those steady-state values depend on real growth g,in?ation i,PPE economic life n,and required real gross PPE divided by revenues K.They are consistent with the company developing in a steady-state fashion in the post-horizon period,and consequently with the general idea of dividing the future
into explicit forecast and post-horizon periods.However,there is not total consistency, for(at least)two reasons.In the?rst place,the steady-state assumption is obviously only an approximation:Successive PPE cohorts when entering the post-horizon period, as resulting from capital expenditures in the explicit forecast period,cannot be expected to satisfy precisely the even age distribution requirement.This inconsistency is usually not very important.In the second place,real gross PPE when entering the post-horizon period(again the result of forecasted capital expenditures in the explicit forecast period) does not automatically correspond exactly to what is needed according to the capital intensity factor K(i.e.,K·revenues).
For the earlier years in the explicit forecast period,[this year’s net PPE/revenues], [depreciation/last year’s net PPE]and[retirements/last year’s net PPE]have been set in a heuristic fashion in the McKay example(see Table8):Values for the?rst year of the explicit forecast period have been set equal to the average of all corresponding historical ratios,or equal to the immediately preceding historical ratio.Values for intermediate years of the ratio[this year’s net PPE/revenues]have been determined by non-linear interpolation between the?rst and last years of the explicit forecast period,in such a manner that the real gross PPE when entering the post-horizon period is equal to what is required according to the capital intensity factor K.11Hence,the second inconsis-tency in the previous paragraph is eliminated.Values for intermediate years of the ratios [depreciation/last year’s net PPE]and[retirements/last year’s net PPE]are determined through linear interpolation.This is an easy way of making forecasts for the intermediate years of the explicit forecast period.It is proposed here as a simple-minded alternative to bottom-up forecasting of individual capital expenditures(new and replacement).The latter alternative may be more accurate but is also more complex,since it can usually only be done using information available inside a company,i.e.,not on the basis of published accounting data(cf.Koller et al.2005,pp.238-239).
11See rows160-166!Cell S163calculates actual gross PPE at the end of the last explicit forecast period year,as resulting from capital expenditures that have been undertaken in that year and the n?1 previous explicit forecast period years.This calculation uses in?ation factors in row162.The amount of real gross PPE that is needed is given in cell S164.The di?erence between cells S163and S164,multiplied by1,000,000,is contained in cell I165(although as a hidden entry).This di?erence can be driven to zero by adjusting the interpolation curve parameterαin cell S161.α=0means no curvature,i.e.,linear interpolation.Finding that value ofαthat gives a di?erence of zero in cell I165can conveniently be done using the Goal Seek procedure.This non-linear interpolation procedure obviously presupposes that the explicit forecast period comprises at least n years,i.e.,as many years as the economic life of the PPE.
8Forecast assumptions relating to taxes
The next set of forecast assumptions in Table8refers to taxes.The corporate tax rate has apparently been39%in all historical years and is forecasted to remain at that level in the future.The further tax assumption that must be?xed for future years is the ratio[timing di?erences/this year’s net PPE].This ratio relates to the balance sheet item deferred income taxes.That is,deferred income taxes are equal to(this year’s net PPE)×[timing di?erences/this year’s net PPE]×[this year’s tax rate].It may be noted that deferred income taxes are revalued when the tax rate changes(the so-called liability method of accounting for deferred taxes).The precise steps of that revaluation will be mentioned in Section10below.In the base case McKay scenario,there is actually no need for such a revaluation,since the tax rate is the same in all historical and future years. However,in a sensitivity analysis one may wish to assume a di?erent tax rate for future years,e.g.,starting with year1(cf.Section13below).If so,there will be an error in the free cash?ow calculation,unless deferred income taxes are revalued.
The ratio[timing di?erences/this year’s net PPE]can be set in the same fashion as in the previous three sections.That is,a value for the?rst year of the explicit forecast period is set as an average of the corresponding historical values.A value for the last year of the explicit forecast period is speci?ed through steady-state considerations,like the values for the ratios relating to PPE.Values for intermediate years are then?xed by linear interpolation.This procedure has been followed in the McKay example.
As already indicated in Section6,the life of the PPE for depreciation for tax purposes is denoted by q.It is obviously assumed that q If the steady-state condition holds,i.e.,the acquisition values of successive PPE cohorts increase by c,then the ratio[timing di?erences/this year’s net PPE]in the last year of the explicit forecast period can be written as J F c(1?H) ,(4) where J=q?1 v=0 1 1+c v · v q + n?1 v=q 1 1+c v ? n?1 v=0 1 1+c v · v n =1+c?(qc+1)(1+c)?(q?1) c2q + 1+c?(1+c)?(n?q?1) c ·1 (1+c)q ?1+c?(nc+1)(1+c)?(n?1) c2n if c>0.The?rst term in J represents accumulated?scal depreciation for PPE cohorts that have not yet been written down to zero for tax purposes,the second term accumulated ?scal depreciation for those PPE cohorts that have already been written down to zero for tax purposes but have not yet been retired,and the third term accumulated depreciation over the economic lives for PPE cohorts that have not yet been retired.(Cf.the remark at the end of Section3to the e?ect that non-zero timing di?erences are related to non-retired PPE cohorts only;cf.also equation(2)in Section6for part of the derivation.)If c=0,then J=0.5(q?1)+(n?q)?0.5(n?1). The formula for J is contained in cell S171in Table8.Equation(4),the steady-state ratio [timing di?erences/this year’s net PPE]in the last year of the explicit forecast period,is contained in cell S172. 9Forecast assumptions relating to discount rates and ?nancing Consider now the interest rate items in Table8.The nominal borrowing rate is “one plus the real rate multiplied by one plus expected in?ation minus one”.McKay’s real borrowing rate is apparently forecasted to be5.60%in all future years.Expected in?ation has already earlier been forecasted to remain at3%in future years.The nominal borrowing rate is hence(1+0.0560)×(1+0.03)?1=8.77%(rounded).12Incidentally,the forecasted nominal borrowing rate is assumed to be the going market rate for companies in McKay’s risk class.This means that the market value of the interest-bearing debt is equal to the book value.In the valuation of the equity as a residual,the book value of the interest-bearing debt is subtracted from the value of the?rm’s assets.This procedure is correct only because of the equality between market and book debt values when the nominal borrowing rate is the same as the going market rate. For calculating the WACC,the cost of equity capital,also referred to as the required rate of return on equity,is also needed.The real cost of equity capital is apparently assumed to be11.40%.The nominal cost of equity capital then becomes(1+0.1140)×(1+0.03)?1=14.74%(rounded).It should be emphasized that the cost of equity capital, 12It is assumed that the before-tax real borrowing rate remains constant under varying in?ation expec-tations.A di?erent relationship between the nominal borrowing rate and expected in?ation is obtained, if one assumes that it is the after-tax real borrowing rate that stays constant under varying in?ation expectations.See Howe1992for a discussion of this issue.The assumption made here,that the before-tax real borrowing rate remains constant as in?ation expectations change,seems to agree with empirical ?ndings(Howe1992,p.34). as well as the borrowing rate,is not independent of the debt and equity weights that enter into the WACC.13If those debt and equity weights are varied,then the borrowing rate and cost of equity capital should be varied as well.However,the precise relationship between,on the one hand,the debt and equity weights entering into the WACC and, on the other hand,the borrowing rate and cost of equity capital that also enter into the WACC is left unspeci?ed in this tutorial.Hence,there is not much explicit modelling of the borrowing rate and cost of equity capital in Table8.It should be noted,though,that both of these interest rate items depend on assumed in?ation.If in?ation increases,then so do the nominal borrowing rate and nominal cost of equity capital. The next-to-last item in Table8is[book value target for?nancial strength].Financial strength is de?ned as(invested capital minus interest-bearing debt)divided by invested capital(it is recalled from Section3that invested capital equals working capital plus net PPE).This ratio apparently refers to McKay’s?nancing policy.The?nancing policy is the means to guarantee that there will be an equality between the assets and liabilities sides of the forecasted balance sheets.More precisely,total common equity or interest-bearing debt must be determined as the residual. The following?nancing policy has been assumed for McKay:The company’s recent performance has been rather shaky,as evidenced by the fact that the ratio[debt/invested capital]at the bottom of Table2has increased substantially.McKay should try to reduce that ratio and hence improve its?nancial strength over the coming years(as viewed from the date of valuation,Jan.1of year1).For that purpose,no dividends will be paid at all, as long as?nancial strength is below the target in row181of Table8.Otherwise,maximal dividends are paid out,while still keeping?nancial strength as required.Obviously,this is only intended as one example of a?nancing policy that can be incorporated into the discounted cash?ow model.A book value target for?nancial strength can conveniently be adjusted to provide a target capital structure in market value terms in the?rst year of the post-horizon period.14 Consequently,there is a book value target for?nancial strength.Borrowing as well as dividends are adjusted to reach that target(however,negative dividends are not allowed). Deferred income taxes are viewed as part of equity in the discounted cash?ow model(cf. also Brealey et al.2006,p.513).Hence,deferred income taxes are not subtracted in the calculation of equity value as a residual.McKay’s book value target for?nancial strength in row181in Table8can therefore be restated as follows:The sum of the three 13As will be seen below(Section12),those weights are speci?ed in terms of a target capital structure in market value terms in the?rst year of the post-horizon period.The same weights are then applied in all of the years of the explicit forecast period,and in all later years of the post-horizon period. 14In fact,the book value target for?nancial strength56.7%mentioned below has been selected so as to reach a target capital structure in market value terms in year12of50%equity and50%debt(cf.Section 12). 企业估值理论发展综述 企业估值思想起源于Irving Fisher的财务预算理论。Irving Fisher(1906)论述了收入与资本的关系及价值等相关问题。他从人对收入的感受入手，分析了资本价值的形成过程，说明了资本价值的源泉，归纳了人们的投资决策过程。他还进一步指出，任何财产或所拥有财富的价值均来源于这种能产生预期货币收入的权利，从而使财产或权利的价值可通过对未来预期收入的折现得到。连接收入与资本之间的桥梁就是利息率。人们可以借助利息率，从货币的现值计算货币的未来价值，或从货币的未来价值得到货币的现值。从对利息率的本质和决定因素的分析中进一步研究了资本收入与资本价值的关系，从而形成了完整而系统的资本估值框架，提出的确定性条件下的资本估值技术是现代标准或正统评估技术的基础。他得出结论，如果把建立企业也看作是一种投资的话，企业的价值就是企业所能带来的未来收入流量的现值。 虽然Irving Fisher的研究已经包含了现代估值理论基础，但二十世纪五十年代之前的评估方法主要是加和法，即将构成企业的各种要素资产的评估值加总求得企业整体价值的方法。一般以已确定的资产价值，诸如市场价值、账面价值、原始成本等为基础依据。 受经济学理论发展的影响，在评估方法上，人们逐渐认识到利润最大化并不是一个容易界定清晰的概念，由于风险因素的加入，现金流量成为价值的衡量尺度。这个时期企业价值是企业存续期间预期现金流量按照一定的折现率折现的现值的思想，得到了认同，但在具体操作上，预期现金流量的确定与折现率的选择还存在很大问题。 Benjamin Graham(1934)认为企业的内在价值是被事实确定的价值，这些事实包括公司的资产、收人、红利以及任何未来确定的预期收益。股票价格在短期内是非理性的，经常会脱离股票的内在价值。他为评估企业价值的提供了新的思路，即从公司的基本面出发估算企业价值，并作出投资决策。此后，Benjamin Graham(1949)对自己的投资思想作出了更明确的阐述John Burr Williams(1938)最早提出了折现现金流量和内在价值的概念，认为企业在其剩余经营期间内可以产生的现金的折现值就等于企业当时的内在价值。但是这一理论在企业估值中得以重视并广泛应用则始于Myron J.Gordon（1962）的研究，即我们所熟悉的“高顿增长模型。随后陆续出现了基于折现现金流的估值模型----三阶段增长模型、H模型和随机红利贴现模型。 企业价值估值模型 相对估值法（乘数方法）： 一市价 /净利比率模型（即市盈率模型）PE 法 基本 目标企业每股价值=可比企业平均市盈率×目标企业的每股净利 模型 模型 原理 驱动 ①企业的增长潜力；②股利支付率；③风险（股权成本）。其中最主要驱动因素是企业的增长潜力。 因素 模型①计算市盈率的数据容易取得，并且计算简单；②市盈率把价格和收益联系起来，直观地反映投入优 点和产出的关系；③市盈率涵盖了风险补偿率、增长率、股利支付率的影响，具有很高的综合性。 模型 ①如果收益是负值，市盈率就失去了意义；②市盈率除了受企业本身基本面的影响以外，还受到整 局限 个经济景气程度的影响。在整个经济繁荣时市盈率上升，整个经济衰退时市盈率下降。 性 模型β值接近于 1 的企 业。 市盈率模型最适合连续盈利，并且 适用 周期性较弱企业，如公共服务业，因其盈利相对稳定。 范围 逻辑上， PE 估值法下，绝对合理股价P=EPS× P/E；股价决定于 EPS 与合理 P/E 值的积。在其它条PE 法 P/E 值就会越高，绝对合理股价就会出现上涨；高EPS 成长件不变下， EPS 预估成长率越高，合理 的理 P/E。因此，当 EPS 实际成长率低于预期时( 被乘数变股享有高的合理 P/E，低成长股享有低的合理 解 小 )，合理 P/E 值下降 (乘数变小 )，乘数效应下的双重打击小，股价出现重挫，反之同理。 二市价 /净资产比率模型（即市净率模型） PB 法 市净率＝市价÷净资产 基本模型 股权价值＝可比企业平均市净率×目标企业净资产 模型原理 ①权益报酬率；②股利支付率；③增长率；④风险（股权成本）。其中最主要驱动因素是权益 驱动因素 报酬率。 ①净利为负值的企业不能用市盈率估价，而市净率极少为负值，可用于大多数企业；②净资产 账面价值的数据容易取得，并且容易理解；③净资产账面价值比净利稳定，也不像利润那样经 模型优点 常被人为操纵；④如果会计标准合理并且各企业会计政策一致，市净率的变化可以反映企业价 值的变化。 麦肯锡7S模型 麦肯锡7S模型(Mckinsey 7S Model) [编辑] 麦肯锡7S模型简介 二十世纪七、八十年代，美国人饱受了经济不景气、失业的苦恼，同时听够了有关日本企业成功经营的艺术等各种说法，也在努力寻找着适合于本国企业发展振兴的法宝。托马斯·J·彼得斯（Thomas J．Peters）和小罗伯特·H·沃特曼（Robert H．Waterman），这两位斯坦福大学的管理硕士、长期服务于美国著名的麦肯锡管理顾问公司的学者，访问了美国历史悠久、最优秀的62家大公司，又以获利能力和成长的速度为准则，挑出了43家杰出的模范公司，其中包括IBM、德州仪器、惠普、麦当劳、柯达、杜邦等各行业中的翘楚。他们对这些企业进行了深入调查、并与商学院的教授进行讨论，以麦肯锡顾问公司研究中心设计的企业组织七要素（简称7S 模型）为研究的框架，总结了这些成功企业的一些共同特点，写出了《追求卓越——美国企业成功的秘诀》一书，使众多的美国企业重新找回了失落的信心。 7-S模型指出了企业在发展过程中必须全面地考虑各方面的情况，包括结构(Structure)、制度(Systems)、风格(Style)、员工(Staff)、技能(Skills)、战略(Strategy)、共同价值观(Shared Valueds)。也就是说，企业仅具有明确的战略和深思熟虑的行动计划是远远不够的，因为企业还可能会在战略执行过程中失误。因此，战略只是其中的一个要素。 在模型中，战略、结构和制度被认为是企业成功的“硬件”，风格、人员、技能和共同价值观被认为是企业成功经营的“软件”。麦肯锡的7S模型提醒世界各国的经理们，软件和硬件同样重 一、简答题 1.试解释决定企业价值的主要因素。 决定企业价值的因素主要包括收益、增长（即收益的增长趋势）、风险等三个方面： ①收益。一般财务理论认为，企业价值应该与企业未来资本收益的现值相等。企业未来资本收益的选择主要有利润和现金流量两大类型，具体而言，包括股利、净利润、息税前利润、经济利润、净现金流量等形式。其中，净现金流量和经济利润被认为是较理想的价值评估方法。 ②增长指的是收益增长，因此，增长对企业价值也具有影响。企业应该追求的是可持续的增长。 在理论上通常从现金流口径这一角度来描述可持续增长。在运用收益法进行企业价值评估时存在以下收益增长模型可供选择：零增长模型、固定增长模型、两阶段增长模型、三阶段增长模型。 ③风险是指资产未来收益相对预期收益变动的可能性和变动幅度。从企业价值评估角度来看，风险代表了企业未来收益的不确定性。在企业价值评估中，衡量风险主要采用的是折现率。合适的折现率的选择直接关系到对企业未来收益风险的判断 2.企业价值评估的方法包含哪些类型？ ①收益法，是通过将被评估企业预期收益资本化或折现以确定评估对象价值的评估思路。利用收益法需要合理地确定预测收益、预测期间，并选择适当的折现率。 ②市场法，是指将评估对象与参考企业、在市场上已有交易案例的企业、股东权益、证券等权益性资产进行比较以确定评估对象价值的评估思路，包括企业比较法和并购案例比较法。 ③成本法也称资产基础法，是指在合理评估企业各项资产价值和负债的基础上确定评估对象价值的评估思路。 ④期权估价法是在期权定价理论的基础上，充分考虑了企业在未来经营中存在的投资机会或拥有的选择权的价值，进而评估企业价值的一种方法。 3.在进行企业价值评估时为什么需要利用会计报告？ 会计报告是企业价值评估的基础和不可分割的组成部分。它对于保证企业价值评估工作的顺利进行，提高企业价值评估的质量与效果都有着重要的作用，具体表现在以下三个方面：①收集和整理会计报告是企业价值评估的重要步骤和方法之一。会计报告的收集与整理过程，就是企业价值评估的过程。 ②会计报告是企业价值评估的根本依据。企业价值评估实际上就是对财务信息的分析。 ③会计报告的数量和质量，决定着企业价值评估的质量与效果。正因为会计报告是企业价值评估的基本依据和基础环节，因此，会计报告的可靠性、完整性、及时性，对提高企业价值评估的质量和效果是至关重要的。 4.基于现金流量的企业价值评估模型的基本原理是什么？ 其基本原理是：企业的价值应等于该企业在未来所产生的全部现金流的现值总和。其公式是： 管理咨询常用模型 波特五种竞争力分析模型 波特的五种竞争力分析模型被广泛应用于很多行业的战略制定。波特认为在任何行业 中，无论是国内还是国际， 无论是提供产品还是提供服务， 竞争的规则都包括在五种竞争力 量内。这五种竞争力就是企业间的竞争、 潜在新竞争者的进入、潜在替代品的开发、供应商 的议价能力、购买者的议价能力。这五种竞争力量决定了企业的盈利能力和水平。 竞争对手 企业间的竞争是五种力量中最主要的一种。 只有那些比竞争对手的战略更具优势的战略 才可能获得成功。为此，公司必须在市场、价格、质量、产量、功能、服务、研发等方面建 立自己的核心竞争优势。 影响行业内企业竞争的因素有：产业增加、固定（存储）成本 剩、产品差异、商标专有、转换成本、集中与平衡、信息复杂性、竞争者的多样性、公司的 风险、退出壁垒等。 新进入者 这样又不可避免地需要公司投入相应的资源。 顾客 /附加价值周期性生产过 企业必须对新的市场进入者保持足够的警惕, 他们的存在将使企业做出相应的反应， 而 波特的五种竞争力量分析模型 顾客的谈判 能力 影响潜在新竞争者进入的因素有：经济规模、专卖产品的差别、商标专有、资本需求、 分销渠道、绝对成本优势、政府政策、行业内企业的预期反击等。 购买者 当用户分布集中、规模较大或大批量购货时， 他们的议价能力将成为影响产业竞争强度 的一个主要因 素。 决定购买者力量的因素又： 买方的集中程度相对于企业的集中程度、 买方的数量、买方 转换成本相对企业转换成本、买方信息、后向整合能力、替代品、克服危机的能力、价格 购买总量、产品差异、品牌专有、质量/性能影响、买方利润、决策者的激励。 替代产品 在很多产业，企业会与其他产业生产替代品的公司开展直接或间接的斗争。 在为产品的价格设置了上限，当产品价格超过这一上限时，用户将转向其他替代产品。 决定替代威胁的因素有： 替代品的相对价格表现、 转换成本、客户对替代品的使用倾向。 供应商 供应商的议价力量会影响产业的竞争程度， 尤其是当供应商垄断程度比较高、 原材料替 代品比 较少，或者改用其他原材料的转换成本比较高时更是如此。 决定供应商力量的因素有：投入的差异、产业中供方和企业的转换成本、 替代品投入的 现状、供方的集中程度、批量大小对供方的重要性、与产业总购买量的相关成本、 本和特色的影响、产业中企业前向整合相对于后向整合的威胁等。 SWOT 分析模型 "SWOT ”是 Strength 、Weakness 、Opportunity 、Threat 四个英文单词的缩写，这个模型 的一种方法。 S -优势：比较分析企业在外部市场环境、内部经营方面相对于其他竞争对手的优势; W -劣势：比较分析企业在外部市场环境、内部经营方面相对于其他竞争对手的劣势; O -机会：分析在目前的市场竞争态势下企业存在的发展机会; 替代品的存 投入对成 主要是通过分析企业内部和外部存在的优势和劣势、 机会和挑战来概括企业内外部研究结果 企业价值评估模型与评估过程 ●沈维涛 摘 要:企业经营追求价值最大化,价值评估对企业改进管理、提升价值有重要意义。较通行的两种评估模型是:现金流量折现模型和经济利润模型,各有比较优势。企业价值评估必须通过对企业历史绩效进行分析,预测绩效,估计资金成本,进行连续价值预测,最后计算出企业价值。 关键词:企业价值 评估模型 评估过程 一、企业价值评估的意义 企业没有现成的价值数额,它需要对企业进行评估后才能得到。企业价值数值对于企业经营活动又是必需的。在某种程度上,几乎所有的经济决策都包含估价(至少是隐含的)。在企业内部,编制资本预算包括考虑某个项目将如何影响企业价值。战略计划着重强调更大规模的行动将如何影响价值。在企业外部,证券分析人员进行估价以支持他们的购买或售出的决定,而潜在的购买中也估计目标企业的价值和他们可能提供的协同作用。估价对于为原始的公开销售证券定价和通知当事人销售额、不动产外理以及包括经营中企业财产的分割是有必要的。甚至对于信用分析人员来说,虽然他们通常不明确地估计企业的价值,但是如果要对与贷款行为相关的风险保持一个全面的概念,他们必须考虑企业资产的价值。 其实价值评估更重要的是可以作为一种管理企业的手段。我们能通过价值评估这样一个过程来促进企业的经营者及其他人了解企业的历史与现状,与其他公司的相对优劣势,理解公司潜在的经济价值驱动因素,公司价值增加或减少的因素是什么,什么行为是创造价值的,什么行为又是毁损价值的。促进各级管理者清楚目前从事或策划的业务是否创造价值,以及创造价值的程度,改进管理以提升价值。 二、两种价值评估模型的比较1、现金流量折现模型。现金流量折现模型以一种全面而又简单的方式,囊括了所有影响公司价值的因素。此外,现金流量折现法得到了关于股票市场如何评估公司价值的研究结果的有力支持。 现金流量折现模型的估价可以用两种方式:第一种是预测产权所有者可以得到的现金流量,然后按照产权资本的成本折现预期的现金流量。结果就是估计的产权价值。 巴菲特在计算吉列公司股票内在价值时,被折现的仅是来自股本部分的收 益,即股东的收益。他采用的是两阶段 股利模型,假设第一阶段为第1年至第10年,股东收益年增长率为15%;第二阶段期限为第11年～∞,股东收益年增长率为5%,贴现率K =9%,金额单位为百万美元。 价值=明确的预测期间的现金流量现值+明确的预测期之后现金流量现值 明确预测期之后的价值指终期价值。终期价值可以用简单的公式进行估算,不需再详细预测公司在无限期内的现金流量。 第二种方法是预测所有资本(债务和产权)提供者可以得到的现金流量,然后按照加权平均的资本(债务和产权)成本折现预期现金流量。使用这种方法,得到了估计的企业价值。第二种方法在实际中应用更广泛,因为它不需明确预测债务余额的变化。它的计算方法与第一种方法相同,只是其中被折现的自由现金流量是所有资本产生的。 使用现金流量折现法的第二种方法有几个好处:有助于明确和了解单独的投资和股本拥有筹资来源的价值;在寻求价值创造计划过程中,这一方法有助于确定关键的可利用方面;比较周密,足以处理大多数复杂情况。 2、经济利润模型。所谓经济利润就是扣除调整税的净经营利润与投入资本的资金成本之间的差额。 经济利润=扣除调整税的净利润-资本费用 =扣除调整税的净利润-(投资资本×加权平均资本成本) 例如某公司有投资资本1000元,投资资本回报率为20%,加权平均的资本成为10%,该公司当年的经济利润为100元。 经济利润=200-(1000×10%) =200-100 =100(元) 界定经济利润的另一途径是它等于与资本成本之差乘以投资资本。 经济利润=投资资本×(投资资本回报率-加权平均的资本成本) 这种预测方法得出的经济利润价值相同。 经济利润=1000×(20%-10%) =1000×10% =100(元) 在这一模式中公司的价值等于投资资本额加上相当于未来每年创造价值现值的溢价,即投资资本投入量加上相当于其预计利润现值的溢价或折现。 价值=投资资本+预计经济利润现值 这一公式的逻辑十分简单。如果公司每一周期的利润恰恰等于其加权平均资本成本,那么预计自由现金流量的折现应正好等于其投资资本。换言之,公司的价值恰恰等于最初的投资。只有当公司的利润多于或少于其加权平均的资本成本时,公司的价值才多于或少于其投资资本。因此,相对投资资本而言的溢价或折现必须等于公司未来经济利润的现值。 经济利润模式优于现金流量贴现模式之处在于,经济利润对于了解公司在任何单一年份的经营情况来说,是一个有效的衡量,而自由现金流量法却做不到。例如,不可能通过对实际的和预计的自由现金流量进行比较来跟踪了解公司的进展情况,因为任何一年的自由现金流量都取决于在固定资产与流动资金方面的高度随意的投资。管理阶层很容易只是为了改善某一年的自由现金流量而推迟投资致使长期的价值创造遭受损失。 三、企业价值评估的过程1、分析历史绩效。对公司历史绩效的分析主要目的就是要彻底了解公司过去绩效,可以为判定和评价对今后绩效的预测提供一个不可少的视角。历史绩效分析主要是对公司的历史会计报表进行分析,并集中于公司的关键的驱动因素。 — 571—《经济师》2001年第9期 ●企业研究 绝对估值法（折现方法） 1.DDM模型（Dividend discount model /股利折现模型) 2.DCF /Discount Cash Flow /折现现金流模型） （1）FCFE （ Free cash flow for the equity equity /股权自由现金流模型)模型 （2）FCFF模型（ Free cash flow for the firm firm /公司自由现金流模型）DDM模型 V代表普通股的内在价值， Dt为普通股第t期支付的股息或红利，r为贴现率对股息增长率的不同假定，股息贴现模型可以分为 ：零增长模型、不变增长模型（高顿增长模型）、二阶段股利增长模型（H模型）、三阶段股利增长模型和多元增长模型等形式。 最为基础的模型；红利折现是内在价值最严格的定义； DCF法大量借鉴了DDM 的一些逻辑和计算方法（基于同样的假设/相同的限制）。 1. DDM DDM模型模型法（Dividend discount model / Dividend discount model / 股利折现模型股利折现模型) DDM模型 2. DDM DDM模型的适用分红多且稳定的公司，非周期性行业； 3. DDM DDM模型的不适用分红很少或者不稳定公司，周期性行业； DDM模型在大陆基本不适用； 大陆股市的行业结构及上市公司资金饥渴决定，分红比例不高，分红的比例与数量不具有稳定性，难以对股利增长率做出预测。 DCF 模型 2.DCF /Discount Cash Flow /折现现金流模型） DCF估值法为最严谨的对企业和股票估值的方法，原则上该模型适用于任何类型的公司。 自由现金流替代股利，更科学、不易受人为影响。 当全部股权自由现金流用于股息支付时， FCFE模型与DDM模型并无区别；但总体而言，股息不等同于股权自由现金流，时高时低，原因有四： 稳定性要求（不确定未来是否有能力支付高股息）； 未来投资的需要（预计未来资本支出/融资的不便与昂贵）； 麦肯锡模型合集 出自MBA智库百科 (麦肯锡7S模型(Mckinsey 7S Model) 麦肯锡7S模型简介 二十世纪七、八十年代，美国人饱受了经济不景气、失业的苦恼，同时听够了有关日本企业成功经营的艺术等各种说法，也在努力寻找着适合于本国企业发展振兴的法宝。托马斯·J·彼得斯（Thomas J．Peters）和小罗伯特·H·沃特曼（Robert H．Waterman），这两位斯坦福大学的管理硕士、长期服务于美国著名的麦肯锡管理顾问公司的学者，访问了美国历史悠久、最优秀的62家大公司，又以获利能力和成长的速度为准则，挑出了43家杰出的模范公司，其中包括IBM、德州仪器、惠普、麦当劳、柯达、杜邦等各行业中的翘楚。他们对这些企业进行了深入调查、并与商学院的教授进行讨论，以麦肯锡顾问公司研究中心设计的企业组织七要素（简称7S模型）为研究的框架，总结了这些成功企业的一些共同特点，写出了《追求卓越——美国企业成功的秘诀》一书，使众多的美国企业重新找回了失落的信心。 7-S模型指出了企业在发展过程中必须全面地考虑各方面的情况，包括结构(Structure)、制度(Systems)、风格(Style)、员工(Staff)、技能(Skills)、战略(Strategy)、共同价值观(Shared Valueds)。也就是说，企业仅具有明确的战略和深思熟虑的行动计划是远远不够的，因为企业还可能会在战略执行过程中失误。因此，战略只是其中的一个要素。 在模型中，战略、结构和制度被认为是企业成功的“硬件”，风格、人员、技能和共同价值观被认为是企业成功经营的“软件”。麦肯锡的7S模型提醒世界各国的经理们，软件和硬件同样重要，两位学者指出，各公司长期以来忽略的人性，如非理性、固执、直觉、喜欢非正式的组织等，其实都可以加以管理，这与各公司的成败息息相关，绝不能忽略。 一、硬件要素分析 战略(Strategy) 战略是企业根据内外环境及可取得资源的情况，为求得企业生存和长期稳定地发展，对企业发展目标、达到目标的途径和手段的总体谋划，它是企业经营思想的集中体现，是一系列战略决策的结果，同时又是制定企业规划和计划的基础。企业战略这一管理理论是本世纪5O年代到6O年代由发达国家的企业经营者在社会经济、技术、产品和市场竞争的推动下，在总结自己的经营管理实践经验的基础上建立起来的。1947年美国企业制定发展战略的只有2O％，而1970年已经达到了1OO%了。日本经济新闻社在1967年曾进行过专门调查，在63家给予口答的日本大公司中，99％有战略规划。在美国进行的一项调查，有90％以上的企业家认为企业经营过程中最占时间、最为重要、最为困难的就是制订战略规划。可见，战略已经成为企业取得成功的重要因素，企业的经营已经进入了“战略制胜”的时代。 结构(Structure) 战略需要健全的组织结构来保证实施。组织结构是企业的组织意义和组织机制赖以生存的基础，它是企业组织的构成形式，即企业的目标、协同、人员、职位、相互关系、信息等组织要素的有效排列组合方式。就是将企业的目标任务分解到职位，再把职位综合到部门，由众多的部门组成垂直的权利系统和水平分工协作系统的一个有机的整体。组织结构是为战略实施服务的，不同的战略需要不同的组织结构与之对应，组织结构必须与战略相协调。如通用电气公司，在2O世纪5O年代末期，执行的是简单的事业部制，但那时企业已经开始从事大规模经营的战略。到了6O年代，该公司的销售额大幅度提高，而行政管理却跟不上，造成多种经营失控，影响了利润的增长。在7O年代初，企业重新设计了组织结构，采用了 【干货】咨询公司常用10个模型 案例分析、商赛等 必备 G.P.A为寻求职业发展的你精选深度有趣的文章与资讯。更多精彩点击标题下方G.P.A---------点击文末左下角“阅读 原文”于职业笔记APP中查看更多咨询业资讯、干货与职位，帮助你变得像个内行人。文章系转载，G.P.A诚意推荐。 全球著名咨询公司管理咨询常用模型。 1.波特五种竞争力分析模型。 2.SWOT分析模型。 3.战略地位与行动评价矩阵。 4.SCP分析模型。 5.战略钟模型。 6.波士顿分析矩阵。 7.GE行业吸引力矩阵。 8.三四矩阵。 9.价值链模型。10.ROS/RMS矩阵。以及全新迭代模型：11.“互联网＋落地系统”模型。 1.波特五种竞争力分析模型波特的五种竞争力分析模型被广泛应用于很多行业的战略制定。波特认为在任何行业中，无论是国内还是国际，无论是提供产品还是提供服务，竞争的规则都包括在五种竞争力量内。这五种竞争力就是企业间的竞争、潜在新竞争者的进入、潜在替代品的开发、供应商的议价能力、购买者的议价能力。这五种竞争力量决定了企业的盈利能力和水平。竞争对手企业间的竞争是五种力量中最主要的一种。只有那些比竞争对手的战略更具优势的战略才可能获得成功。为此，公司必须在市场、价格、 质量、产量、功能、服务、研发等方面建立自己的核心竞争优势。影响行业内企业竞争的因素有：产业增加、固定（存储）成本/附加价值周期性生产过剩、产品差异、商标专有、转换成本、集中与平衡、信息复杂性、竞争者的多样性、公司的风险、退出壁垒等。新进入者企业必须对新的市场进入者保持足够的警惕，他们的存在将使企业做出相应的反应，而这样又不可避免地需要公司投入相应的资源。 影响潜在新竞争者进入的因素有：经济规模、专卖产品的差别、商标专有、资本需求、分销渠道、绝对成本优势、政府政策、行业内企业的预期反击等。购买者当用户分布集中、规模较大或大批量购货时，他们的议价能力将成为影响产业竞争强度的一个主要因素。决定购买者力量的因素又：买方的集中程度相对于企业的集中程度、买方的数量、买方转换成本相对企业转换成本、买方信息、后向整合能力、替代品、克服危机的能力、价格/购买总量、产品差异、品牌专有、质量/性能影响、买方利润、决策者的激励。替代产品在很多产业，企业会与其他产业生产替代品的公司开展直接或间接的斗争。替代品的存在为产品的价格设置了上限，当产品价格超过这一上限时，用户将转向其他替代产品。 决定替代威胁的因素有：替代品的相对价格表现、转换成本、客户对替代品的使用倾向。供应商供应商的议价力量会影响产业的竞争程度，尤其是当供应商垄断程度比较高、原 估值与财务模型 目录 第一章估值的基本概念 第二章可比公司法 第三章历史交易法 第四章现金流概念及现金流贴现法 第五章IPO估值VS M&A估值 第六章建模的过程和注意事项 第七章现金流贴现模型的输出 第一章 估值的基本概念 企业的价值 ④资产的价值主要有两种表现形式：帐面价值和市场价值。帐面价值即资产负债表上反映的总资产、 净资产，主要反映历史成本。市场价值如股票的市值、兼并收购中支付的对价等，主要反映未来收益的多少。 ④在多数情况下，帐面价值不能真实反映企业未来的收益，因此帐面价值和市场价值往往有较大差 异。例如，总的来说，帐面价值主要用于会计目的，而资本市场上的投资者更为关注的则是市场价值。以下所讨论的价值均是指市场价值。 企业价值净债务少数股东权益联营公司价值股权价值 （取决于计算EV 的Revenue或 者 EBITDA、EBIT中是否已 包含联营公司的值） 主要估值方法概述 ④没有一种估值方法是绝对正确的。每种方法都有其优缺点，应该根据情况选择合适的估值方法。 ④通常会使用多种估值方法来相互验证，并最终确定一个价值区间。 现金流贴现法④理论上最完善的估值方法 ④预测未来若干年的经营现金流，并用恰当 的贴现率（加权平均资本成本）和终值计 算方法计算这些现金流和终值的贴现值， 以此计算企业价值和股权价值 ④ 这种方法主要依赖于对于被估值 企业的现金流和发展速度的预 测，以及对于资本成本和终值的 假设（假设的准确性对估值结果 的影响至关重要） 5 估值的用途 ④ 估值分析应用广泛： –公开发行：确定发行价及募集资金规模 –购买企业或股权：应当出价多少来购买 –出售企业或股权：可以以多少价格出售 –公平评价：从财务的观点，评价出价是否公平 –新业务：新业务对于投资回报以及企业价值的影响 企业估值思想起源于Irving Fisher的财务预算理论。Irving Fisher(1906)论述了收入与资本的关系及价值等相关问题。他从人对收入的感受入手，分析了资本价值的形成过程，说明了资本价值的源泉，归纳了人们的投资决策过程。他还进一步指出，任何财产或所拥有财富的价值均来源于这种能产生预期货币收入的权利，从而使财产或权利的价值可通过对未来预期收入的折现得到。连接收入与资本之间的桥梁就是利息率。人们可以借助利息率，从货币的现值计算货币的未来价值，或从货币的未来价值得到货币的现值。从对利息率的本质和决定因素的分析中进一步研究了资本收入与资本价值的关系，从而形成了完整而系统的资本估值框架，提出的确定性条件下的资本估值技术是现代标准或正统评估技术的基础。他得出结论，如果把建立企业也看作是一种投资的话，企业的价值就是企业所能带来的未来收入流量的现值。 虽然Irving Fisher的研究已经包含了现代估值理论基础，但二十世纪五十年代之前的评估方法主要是加和法，即将构成企业的各种要素资产的评估值加总求得企业整体价值的方法。一般以已确定的资产价值，诸如市场价值、账面价值、原始成本等为基础依据。受经济学理论发展的影响，在评估方法上，人们逐渐认识到利润最大化并不是一个容易界定清晰的概念，由于风险因素的加入，现金流量成为价值的衡量尺度。这个时期企业价值是企业存续期间预期现金流量按照一定的折现率折现的现值的思想，得到了认同，但在具体操作上，预期现金流量的确定与折现率的选择还存在很大问题。 Benjamin Graham(1934)认为企业的内在价值是被事实确定的价值，这些事实包括公司的资产、收人、红利以及任何未来确定的预期收益。股票价格在短期内是非理性的，经常会脱离股票的内在价值。他为评估企业价值的提供了新的思路，即从公司的基本面出发估算企业价值，并作出投资决策。此后，Benjamin Graham(1949)对自己的投资思想作出了更明确的阐述 John Burr Williams(1938)最早提出了折现现金流量和内在价值的概念，认为企业在其剩余经营期间内可以产生的现金的折现值就等于企业当时的内在价值。但是这一理论在企业估值中得以重视并广泛应用则始于Myron （1962）的研究，即我们所熟悉的“高顿增长模型。随后陆续出现了基于折现现金流的估值模型----三阶段增长模型、H模型和随机红利贴现模型。 麦肯锡7S模型(Mckinsey 7S Model) 二十世纪七、八十年代，美国人饱受了经济不景气、失业的苦恼，同时听够了有关日本企业成功经营的艺术等各种说法，也在努力寻找着适合于本国企业发展振兴的法宝。Thomas J．Peters和Robert H．Waterman，这两位斯坦福大学的管理硕士、长期服务于美国著名的麦肯锡管理顾问公 司的学者，访问了美国历史悠久、最优秀的62家大公司，又以获利能力和成长的速度为准则，挑出 了43家杰出的模范公司，其中包括IBM、德州仪器、惠普、麦当劳、柯达、杜邦等各行业中的翘楚。他们对这些企业进行了深入调查、并与商学院的教授进行讨论，以麦肯锡顾问公司研究中心设计的企业组织七要素（简称7S模型）为研究的框架，总结了这些成功企业的一些共同特点，写出了《追求卓越——美国企业成功的秘诀》一书，使众多的美国企业重新找回了失落的信心。 7-S模型指出了企业在发展过程中必须全面地考虑各方面的情况，包括结构(Structure)、制度(Systems)、风格(Style)、员工(Staff)、技能(Skills)、战略(Strategy)、共同价值观(Shared Valueds)。 也就是说，企业仅具有明确的战略和深思熟虑的行动计划是远远不够的，因为企业还可能会在战略执行过程中失误。因此，战略只是其中的一个要素。 在模型中，战略、结构和制度被认为是企业成功的“硬件”，风格、人员、技能和共同价值观被 认为是企业成功经营的“软件”。麦肯锡的7S模型提醒世界各国的经理们，软件和硬件同样重要，两位学者指出，各公司长期以来忽略的人性，如非理性、固执、直觉、喜欢非正式的组织等，其实都可以加以管理，这与各公司的成败息息相关，绝不能忽略。 一、硬件要素分析 战略(Strategy) 是企业根据内外环境及可取得资源的情况，为求得企业生存和长期稳定地发展，对企业发展目标、达到目标的途径和手段的总体谋划，它是企业经营思想的集中体现，是一系列战略决策的结果，同时又是制定企业规划和计划的基础。企业战略这一管理理论是本世纪5O年代到6O年代由发达国家的企业经营者在社会经济、技术、产品和市场竞争的推动下，在总结自己的经 1绪论 研究背景 近年来,伴随着市场经济与资本市场的逐步发展与日趋完善,越来越多的企业选择通过并购进行资本扩张,增强市场影响力。特别是我国加入WTO后,带来了国民经济体制的深入改革,各级政府也相应地出台了许多规范资本市场的法规政策及其配套指引,这些都促使资本市场中的并购历程向着更深更远的方向发展。 企业并购活动在我国起步较晚,但发展速度较快。1984年7月,保定市纺织机械厂以承担兼并企业全部债权债务的形式,并购了保定市针织器材厂,该厂已处于连年亏损,几乎面临倒闭状态的企业,这是发生在中国的首例并购案例,它开创了中国国有企业间并购活动的先河。过去的几十年里又相继发生了许许多多类似的并购活动,掀起了一股股来势凶猛的企业并购浪潮。但由于企业并购在我国的起步时间比西方国家晚了整整几十年,加之我国目前经济体制改革正处于转轨时期,资本运营的体系不完善,许多制约企业并购的根本问题尚未解决,我国资本市场中的并购活动与并购价值评估方法的应用现状具有以下几个特点: 第一,我国企业的并购动力主要是来自政府方面的推动,尤其体现在一些国有企业之间的并购活动当中。但随着我国建立现代企业制度的进程不断推进,许多企业越来越倾向于出于自身发展战略的角度,主动进行并购活动。 第二,并购价值的评估方法陈旧。虽然我国资本市场中的并购活动还处于初步发展时期,配套的法律法规的不完善和股权结构的不合理在一定程度上限制了企业并购的良性发展。从技术角度来看,目前我国企业并购价值的评估最常用的方法是重置成本法和收益法,它们被盲目地广泛使用,而没有考虑到不是所有的并购类型都适用这两种方法。重置成本法主要侧重于对当前企业资产价值的静态度量,而没有考虑到企业资本未来的收益能力。重置成本其实评估的并不是企业的价值而是当前资产的价值。同时,收益法在我国某些并购案例中也并不适用,因为使用收益法所需的部分行业参数中目前市场条件下很难获得,这也在一定程度上限制了企业并购中的评估方法应用。 第三,我国企业间的并购活动大多是通过并购双方直接接触完成的,投资银行等市场中介机构的作用未得到应有的发挥。在西方发达国家,从并购发动、融资安排到价格确定等各个环节,中介机构都起到推动作用。但我国尚处于缺位状态的中介机构,不得不使我国的企业并购仍处于初级阶段,很难市场化、规范化。 .2研究意义 资本市场中并购事件无一不牵涉企业部分或全部资产产权的转移,能否成功转移都需要合理的定价来支撑,这使并购资产的定价机制也面临考验。能否合理地评估并购资产的价值,决定了交易价格对资产真实价值的反映程度,也就决定了企业间并购交易能否顺利实现,同时它还影响着资本市场能否朝着积极的方向发展。 纵观资本市场中层出不究的并购案例,其并购的方式各不相同,参与并购的主体也各不相同,那么目标企业定价所适用的评估方法也不尽相同,其中所体现的评估方法特点也就不同,因此,在并购资产的评估过程中,评估方法的选择和评估方法的运用对资产交易价格的形成具有重要的指导意义。文章以中国资本市场中企业间的并购活动为切入点,立足于不同的并购类型,着眼于研究以并购为目的的价值评估方法研究,分析不同的并购类型下价值评估方法的选择和应用,试图在资产定价的合理性和适用性上提出一些有用之策,从而体现了以并购为目的的价值评估方法研究对于今后并购活动中的资产定价,具有一定的理论指导意义和实践意义。 企业价值评估练习及答案 1、术语解释 （1）企业价值（2）企业资产价值（3）企业投资价值（4）企业权益价值（5）协同作用（6）加和法 （7）可比企业（8）市盈率 2、单项选择题 （1）企业价值评估的一般前提是企业的（） a、独立性 b、持续经营性 c、整体性 d、营利性 （2）企业价值大小的决定因素是（） a、独立性 b、持续经营性 c、社会性 d、营利性 （3）评估人员选择适当的折现率将企业的息前净现金流量进行了资本还原，得到了初步评估结果。本次评估要求的是企业的净资产价值即权益价值。对初步评估结果应做的进一步调整是（） a、减企业的全部负债 b、加减企业的全部负债 c、减企业的长期负债 d、减企业的流动负债 （4）证券市场上将企业价值评估作为进行投资重要依据的是（） a、消极投资者 b、积极投资者 c、市场趋势型投资者 d、价值型投资者 （5）在企业价值评估中，对企业资产划分为有效资产和无效资产的主要目的是（） a、选择评估方法 b、界定评估价值类型 c、界定评估具体范围 d、明确企业盈利能力 （6）会计上所编制的资产负债表中的各项资产的账面价值往往与市场价格大相径庭，引起账面价值高于市场价值的主要原因是（） a、通货膨胀 b、过时贬值 c、组织资本 d、应付费用 （7）企业（投资）价值评估模型是将（）根据资本加权平均成本进行折现 a、预期自由现金流量 b、预期股权现金流量 c、股利 d、利润（8）运用市盈率作为乘数评估出的是企业（） a、资产价值 b、投资价值 c、股权价值 d、债权价值 （9）在企业被收购或变换经营者的可能性较大时，适宜选用（）模型进行估价 a、股利折现 b、股权现金流量 c、预期自由现金流量 d、净利润 3、多项选择题 （1）企业价值的表现形式有（） a、企业资产价值 b、企业投资价值 c、企业股东权益价值 d、企业债务价值 e、企业债权价值 （2）企业的投资价值是（） a、企业所有的投资人所拥有的对于企业资产索取权价值的总和。 b、企业的资产价值减去无息流动负债价值， c、代表了股东对企业资产的索取权，它等于企业的资产价值减去负债价值。 d、权益价值加上付息债务价值。 企业价值评估发展历程-CAL-FENGHAI.-(YICAI)-Company One1 企业估值理论发展综述 企业估值思想起源于Irving Fisher的财务预算理论。Irving Fisher(1906)论述了收入与资本的关系及价值等相关问题。他从人对收入的感受入手，分析了资本价值的形成过程，说明了资本价值的源泉，归纳了人们的投资决策过程。他还进一步指出，任何财产或所拥有财富的价值均来源于这种能产生预期货币收入的权利，从而使财产或权利的价值可通过对未来预期收入的折现得到。连接收入与资本之间的桥梁就是利息率。人们可以借助利息率，从货币的现值计算货币的未来价值，或从货币的未来价值得到货币的现值。从对利息率的本质和决定因素的分析中进一步研究了资本收入与资本价值的关系，从而形成了完整而系统的资本估值框架，提出的确定性条件下的资本估值技术是现代标准或正统评估技术的基础。他得出结论，如果把建立企业也看作是一种投资的话，企业的价值就是企业所能带来的未来收入流量的现值。 虽然Irving Fisher的研究已经包含了现代估值理论基础，但二十世纪五十年代之前的评估方法主要是加和法，即将构成企业的各种要素资产的评估值加总求得企业整体价值的方法。一般以已确定的资产价值，诸如市场价值、账面价值、原始成本等为基础依据。受经济学理论发展的影响，在评估方法上，人们逐渐认识到利润最大化并不是一个容易界定清晰的概念，由于风险因素的加入，现金流量成为价值的衡量尺度。这个时期企业价值是企业存续期间预期现金流量按照一定的折现率折现的现值的思想，得到了认同，但在具体操作上，预期现金流量的确定与折现率的选择还存在很大问题。 Benjamin Graham(1934)认为企业的内在价值是被事实确定的价值，这些事实包括公司的资产、收人、红利以及任何未来确定的预期收益。股票价格在短期内是非理性的，经常会脱离股票的内在价值。他为评估企业价值的提供了新的思路，即从公司的基本面出发估算企业价值，并作出投资决策。此后，Benjamin Graham(1949)对自己的投资思想作出了更明确的阐述 John Burr Williams(1938)最早提出了折现现金流量和内在价值的概念，认为企业在其剩余经营期间内可以产生的现金的折现值就等于企业当时的内在价值。但是这一理论在企业估值中得以重视并广泛应用则始于Myron （1962）的研究，即我们所熟悉的“高顿增长模型。随后陆续出现了基于折现现金流的估值模型----三阶段增长模型、H模型和随机红利贴现模型。 美国学者和Merton （1958,1963）对资本成本、投资理论与企业价值之间的相关性进行了研究，形成了MM理论。MM理论包括两个命题。命题Ⅰ认为通过与相同风险等级的企业比较可以测算出风险和不确定性，进而能够建立起财务杠杆与公司价值无关的模型。在无企业所得税的条件下，企业价值与融资决策无关；在有企业所得税的情况下，企业价值增加。他们认为企业价值的大小主要取决于投资决策，在均衡状态下企业的市场价值等于按其风险程度相适合的折现率对预期收益进行折现的资本化价值。命题Ⅱ同时考察了无企业所得税和有企业所得税的情况，在无企业所得税时，股东的风险和对应的期望收益率随着财务杠杆的使用而增加；在有企业所得税时，企业价值增加。该理论为企业价值研究提供了方法论，将企业价值的分析引入规范，标志着现代意义上的估值理论的产生。 二十世纪六十年代，折现率的研究有了新的进展。William （1964）研究了风险的本质，确立了公司收益与风险之间的量化关系，提出了资本资产定价模型（CAPM）。资本资产定价模型用于对股权资本成本的计算，大大提高了折现率 基于B-S期权定价模型的股权价值评估 摘要：随着我国经济的不断发展，股份制公司在市场经济中的优势越来越明显，吸引了一大批企业进行股份制改革。在企业改制过程中，股权价值的确定是整个股份制改革的重要步骤，本文针对一般性企业的股份改制过程中的股权价值问题进行探讨，并将实物期权中的B-S股权定价模型方法引入估价价值评估中，对企业改制过程中的股权价值评估方法进行新的探讨，为更多企业在改制过程中的股权定价提供参考依据。 关键词：B-S期权定价模型；企业改制；股权价值评估 1.研究背景和研究意义 1.1研究背景 有限责任公司和股份有限公司是我国企业主要的存在形式，随着经济的不断发展，股份有限公司形式成为越来越多企业的选择，股份有限公司在经济发展中的作用也愈加凸显。不少原有形式为有限责任公司的企业也在进行股份制改革，以优化企业的产权结构，丰富产权主体。股份制改革，有利于拓宽企业的筹资渠道，改善筹资难问题，获取稳定的发展资金；有利于分散风险，保障企业的生产运营和战略发展；通过股权激励等方式，有利于吸引和保留更多优秀的技术人才和管理人才，为企业的发展提供源源不断的动力；其资本聚集的效应，也顺应了社会生产的发展趋势，有利于优化资源配置，促进资本流动。随着越来越多的企业进行股份制改制，对企业改制的股权评估需求也越来越多。企业在进行股份制改革时，涉及到股权价值的衡量问题，由此产生了股权价值的评估需求。对股权价值进行评估，往往需要委托专业的评估机构，这不仅符合我国的法律法规，也符合市场运行的要求。 在企业改制过程中，股权价值的确定是整个股份制改革的重要步骤，在股权转让时，股权的价值更是关键因素，合理的股权价格有利于加深交易各方对该企业的价值认识，促成股权转让行为。在进行股权价值评估时，不同的计量方法，也会使最后的评估结果出现差异，因此在评估时，需要针对评估对象的具体情况选择合适的方法。由于我国市场经济条件的特殊性，在评估时需要对评估方法进行灵活应用，许多国外的评估惯例在我国并不适用，我国并不具备国外相对成熟的市场条件，但由于国外资产评估行业发展远远早于我国的资产评估行业的发展，在理论和实践上仍有许多值得借鉴的地方。就股权价值评估而言，我国对股权价值评估的理论研究还相对落后，对实践操作的指导也相对欠缺，虽然可以借鉴国外股权价值评估的已有成果，但是我国还不具备相应的市场经济条件，故我国在股权价值评估的理论和实践研究上还任重道远。 1.2研究意义 在我国企业改制越来越盛行，对股权价值评估的需求越来越大的背景下，我国股权价值企业价值评估发展历程
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